SB Nation - Greg Reynolds

Tuesday Rockpile: Has Dan O'Dowd forged MLB's best small market model?

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:25:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

We are told Hawpe isn't going anywhere. Should we be surprised? "Dealin" Dan O'Dowd doesn't like dealin' his homegrown talent very much

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Locking down leading men

Yesterday, Patrick Saunders suggested the Rockies would ink GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy to multi-year deals this week. This morning, the Denver Post strengthened their wording on the issue a bit. Now, a "major league source close to the situation" said the Rockies will sign both leading men to long-term deals, per Saunders and Troy Renck. Okay so that's not a shocker. They do mention the entirety of the MLB coaching staff will return in their current roles, again not surprising after the best regular season in franchise history.

But oh yeah - Tracy Ringolsby already reported that Sunday night.

Dan O'Clown or Bozo Beane?

There's room to argue the sense in giving an MLB contract, but there can be no legitimate beef with Dan O'Dowd. At the time of the Holliday trade in November, some exhibited worry that O'Dowd was playing with fire (Beane) and would likely get burned (Encarnacion/Ortiz/Belitz). It looks like Beane ought to be worried about O'Dowd now.

To further illustrate this point, I'll point you to Fangraphs, where RJ Anderson writes of the Problem with Oakland. Quite frankly, the Athletics just haven't drafted well, and their top prospects haven't panned out since Moneyball. Anderson identified the Rays and Rockies as two teams taking the torch in the small-market-internal-development game, so he compared the three clubs' top 10 prospects (from Baseball America) from 2004-07:

"The Rockies have an extraordinarily high retention rate* of 72.5% while the Rays/A's are equal with 42.5%."

*Retention rate is defined as percentage of prospects still within the organization at the start of 2009.

Moreover, all ten of the Rockies' top ten prospects from 2007 were within the organization this past March, while Oakland and Tampa only had five. That could be part of why the Rockies have two playoff appearances since 2007 to Tampa and Oakland's combined one...

Now time for commentary: Jason Hirsh and Jeff Baker were traded for scraps this season and no one is calling Dan O'Dowd late at night in hopes a brandy-filled evening will allow him to loosen his grip on Greg Reynolds or Chaz Roe. Those four represent an issue with representing small market success by retention rate. Retaining dud or uninspiring prospects isn't really worth rewarding. The Rays lost their top prospect from 2005-2007, but flipping him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett was unquestionably the right move. Then again, after a decade drafting in the top five, they had the best prospects at their disposal for a long time, and the Rockies were drafting higher than Oakland in the time frame.

So what does this all tell us? The Rockies indeed develop players well, though mostly, it tells us Dan O'Dowd likes holding onto his prospects. That's all. The only top prospects from those four years that were traded prior to 2009 were Matt Holliday and Ryan Shealy (unanimously good trades). It tells us the Rockies seem to hold more firm to the developmental segment of the organization than their peers, which is partly why we fans latch onto our players so much. It also tells me that Dan O'Dowd would really have to break the mold to bring in a Brian Roberts.

Last cold links

Rox look to build on strong second half | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding breaks down the roster position-by-position. Included is the contract issues to keep an eye on. It's a good reference point if you haven't been reading the Row every day.

Mopping Up in 2009 | FanGraphs Baseball
Josh Fogg was mop up man in 2009 - his "MOP score" placed him second in MLB behind Luis Perdomo, who allowed Clint Barmes' inside-the-park home run last month.

Monday Rockpile: Rockies seek the correct postseason roster

Russ Oates — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:51:57 -0000

Rockies fall to Dodgers in finale, turn attention to familiar playoff foe - The Denver Post
Yesterday was a loss, but Wednesday is the start of a whole new season.

Inside the Colorado Rockies " Rocks Starters Set for Games 1, 2 | Major League Baseball in Denver
Ubaldo Jimenez in game one; Aaron Cook in game two; and after that? Also, some notes on who is heading to the instructional league during the playoffs.

Paige: Rockies' first postseason score to remember: 11 to 3 - The Denver Post
Woody Paige identifies the 11 players the Rockies need to record three victories over the Phillies.

In the Playoffs, Colorado Rockies : baseballmusings.com
David Pinto at Baseball Musings previews the Rockies for the playoffs.

It's wait and see for De La Rosa - The Denver Post
Tick-tock, tick-tock.

Slumping Morales "ready" for Phillies - The Denver Post
If we do watch Franklin Morales pitch, it better not be like his outing in game 2 of the 2007 NLDS . . . you know, because we don't have Kazuo Matsui to hit a grand slam.

Rockies' Marquis starts slowly, then pitches well enough to get postseason consideration - The Denver Post
Jasin Marquis, WINNAR.

It's official: Rockies set a franchise record for whiffs - The Denver Post
The Rockies struck out a record number of times this season, breaking the previous record by 69.

Jimenez returns to playoffs even better | ColoradoRockies.com: News
This being his second trip to the playoffs, Ubaldo Jimenez looks for big things. But not to have the lights go out at any stadium this time.

Pressure? Street doesn't believe it exists | ColoradoRockies.com: News
"Huston Street believes that pressure is all in the mind. Though the Rockies' closer expects things to get hot when he faces the Phillies in the NLDS, the postseason veteran is ready to rock."

Rox-Phils pits past two pennant-winners | ColoradoRockies.com: News
A preview of the last two NL champions.

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Ask BA
In his latest entry, Jim Callis predicts the Rockies to play in the NLCS against the Cardinals. St. Louis wins and goes on to lose to the Yankees.

Callis provides the 2010 draft order. The Rockies have the 26th pick. And in another question, the mechanics of the draft prior to 2005 are explained. See, before that year the AL and the NL alternated the first pick of the draft. In 2006 the Rockies would have had the first selection, and Greg Reynolds would be up there with Matt Bush for a dubious distinction.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Starting Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Reed Saxon - AP

Where does Aaron Cook rank among Colorado's starting pitchers?

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at starting pitcher (through the 2008 season).

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all starting pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as starters were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting. All in all, 54 players were ranked.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how pitching WAR is calculated. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

As I explained last week, starting pitchers are MUCH more valuable than relief pitchers when one is measuring WAR, by and large, due to the fact that WAR is a counting stat. Starting pitchers throw more innings and therefore have a greater influence on the game than do relievers, which stands to reason. This is also the reason why a pitcher like Franklin Morales, who could develop into a dominant closer, would be better off just remaining a starter.

Remember, relief pitchers are often failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers. Replacement-level starters can be useful relievers; Juan Rincon is neither.

In any case, what both Smith and the fine folks at Fangraphs have shown is that star starting pitchers are just as valuable if not more so than star position players (and their contracts often bear this point out). Even though a dominant starting pitcher will only play once every five games, they have such a huge influence on whether their team wins the game that it mitigates the difference in playing time between the position player and, say, Troy Tulowitzki.

For instance, this season Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado's top pitcher) has been worth 5.5 WAR while Tulowitzki (the top position player) has accumulated 4.7 WAR. On a macro scale, the Rockies' pitching staff has actually contributed more WAR to the team (23.3, 2nd in MLB) than have the position players (16.5, 17th in MLB).

But I digress.

Like the denizens of the bullpen, a club's starting rotation is often in a constant state of flux due to injuries and inconsistent performance. The fact that the Rockies have only had five pitchers start more than two games this year is quite frankly amazing--the MLB average for this is closer to eight starters. I would say, though, that starting pitching performance is by and large more predictive overall than relief pitching performance due to the larger sample sizes involved in any one year's stats. A reliever can be unduly harmed or helped by luck when used less often--a trend that can see an unpleasant (or pleasant) change the subsequent year.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five or six starters in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly starting role. It's a relatively deep group, with 14 starting pitchers having delivered at least one league average season (2 WAR) as a starter for the Rockies.

Starting Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking eight players to reflect the fact that the modern starting rotation generally uses eight pitchers in any given year.

Keep in mind when reading this list that WAR is a counting stat and therefore longevity counts for quite a bit, especially in this category. Also, Smith's numbers seem to be park-adjusted, therefore pre-humidor pitchers are given a nice park-factor boost to their less-than inspiring numbers (small consolation for having to pitch in an offensive haven.

1. Pedro Astacio

Career WAR: 9.9 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 9.3, 1999-2001 (1st)
Top Season: 5.3, 1999 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.33

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic as an 18 year old by the Dodgers, Pedro Astacio came over to the Rockies as a 27 year old before the waiver trade deadline in 1997 in exchange for Eric Young. Needless to say, trading EY was not originally a popular move with fans, but Astacio soon won over Colorado partisans with his sublime pitching even at Coors Field.

Astacio's third season with the Rockies, 1999, was the greatest pitching season in franchise history (though it will soon likely be surpassed by Jimenez this year) with 5.3 WAR. The 29 year-old righty threw 232 innings, managing a 17-11 record and 210 strikeouts (a club record to this day) despite a 5.04 ERA. Considering that Coors Field in 1999 had a Park Factor of 127 (this year = 107), it was pretty tough to succeed using conventional pitching stats. Astacio's 4.56 FIP and 8.15 K/9 (2.91 K/BB) hold up pretty well in such a poor pitching environment.

In any case, Astacio was traded by Colorado to Houston for homegrown pitcher Scott Elarton at the 2001 trading deadline as he approached free agency. Oddly enough, Astacio's performance never was even replacement level for the rest of his career even when pitching in better environs.

TOGB celebrated Astacio in an edition of Rockies Retro.

2a. Aaron Cook

Career WAR: 10.3 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 7.3, 2006-2008 (2nd)
Top Season: 3.4, 2008 (6th)
Average Rank: 3

You might not have realized it, but Aaron Cook has been pitching for the Rockies since 2002 (and he's signed through 2011 with a mutual option for 2012). His longevity and consistency (he's been over 1 WAR his last five seasons) are what puts the Rockies' 2nd round pick in 1997 near the top of this leaderboard and to the summit of the Rockies' career WAR leaderboard.

Cook's best year was his All-Star season last year, when in the awful beginning of the year he was the only thing keeping the season from becoming a complete disaster. His 16-9 record and 3.96 ERA in 211.1 IP got him on the All-Star team and his 3.76 FIP garnered him 3.4 WAR. His 4.37 career ERA is tops in Rockies history.

Going forward, Cook is a solid middle rotation starter that is locked into the Rockies for a couple of more years. He is already the longest-tenured Rockies starter, and could be one of the few players in today's game to pitch a long career with one club.

2b. Jason Jennings

Career WAR: 9.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 6.6, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 4.2, 2006 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Talk about selling an asset high. Jason Jennings, the jewel of the Rockies' player development system, Rookie of the Year in 2002, coming off of his best season, was traded to the Houston Astros after the 2006 season (and before his third year of arbitration) for Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsh. Dan O'Dowd was lambasted for this trade by most, yet in hindsight this move looks like an absolute steal.

Why? Because Jennings fell off a cliff once leaving the Rockies, sustaining arm injuries and pitching poorly enough that he's now the Rangers' mop-up man. Despite the hard times that have befallen JJ, let us remember his glory.

The 16th overall pick of the 1999 draft out of Baylor, JJ rocketed through the Rockies' system and made his big league debut in 2001, going 4-1 and having a rather memorable debut, pitching a five pitch shutout and hitting a home run. Jennings only got better in 2002, going 16-8 and winning the ROY. However, it was JJ's 2006 that cemented his status as a front line pitcher (or so thought poor Ed Wade).

In 2006 Jennings compiled a 9-13 record but had a 3.78 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 206 Ks (1.67 K/BB) in 212 IP, good enough for 4.2 WAR. And then O'Dowd sold high. What a move that was. His WAR since 2006: -1.1, -0.8. While I appreciate what JJ did for the Rockies, I'm glad O'Dowd let go when he did.

4. Kevin Ritz

Career WAR: 6.6 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 6.5, 1995-1997 (4th)
Top Season: 3.9, 1995 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

Kevin Ritz, a 4th round pick of Detroit in 1985, was picked as the 46th pick of the 1992 expansion draft by the Rockies. Ritz was a rotation regular by 1994 and had a nice two season stretch in 1995 and 1996. Ritz went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 120 Ks (1.85 K/BB) in 173.1 IP for the Wild Card-winning Rockies in 1995 (3.9 WAR). He followed it up with a 2 WAR 1996, going 17-11.

Ritz's career ended when he was released by the Rockies during the 1998 season after he was unable to overcome arm injuries.

TOGB wrote a nice profile on Ritz in Rockies Retro.

5. Armando Reynoso

Career WAR: 7.6 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1993-1995 (6th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1993 (8th)
Average Rank: 6

Armando Reynoso, originally purchased by the Braves from his Mexican professional team, was selected by the Rockies with the 58th pick in the expansion draft. Reynoso quickly became Colorado's best pitcher, posting a 3.1 WAR in the team's inaugural season. However, his career was quickly detoured by chronic arm injuries, otherwise he'd be higher on this list. The righty, who possessed an awesome pick-off move, did manage to put up 1.1 and 2.6 WAR seasons in 1995 (half year) and 1996.

The Rockies traded the plucky finesse pitcher to the Mets after the 1996 season for Jerry DiPoto as he became more expensive given his injury risk. Reynoso won a World Series ring with the Diamondbacks despite performing poorly in 2001, his last real MLB season.

TOGB wrote a profile on Reynoso in Rockies Retro.

6. Marvin Freeman

Career WAR: 4.6 (8th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1994-1996 (T-8th)
Top Season: 4.0, 1994 (4th)
Average Rank: 6.67

Ladies and Gentleman, the single season ERA record holder for the Colorado Rockies! A 31 year-old Marvin Freeman was picked up off the scrap heap by the Rockies after the 1993 season, and though he only had one good season with the team, what a blaze of glory it was!

The imposing (6'7") righty was, quite frankly, amazing in 1994 for the Rockies. In only 112 innings (18 starts), Freeman went 10-2 with 67 Ks (2.91 K/BB) and a 2.80 ERA (3.84 FIP), worth 4.0 WAR!

Of course, in 1995 and 1996 everyone was reminded that Freeman wasn't actually this good (0.9 and -0.3 WAR) and he went away quietly--he was released at the waiver deadline in 1996.

7. John Thomson

Career WAR: 7.2 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.8, 1997-1999 (7th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1997 (10th)
Average Rank: 7.33

Drafted by the Rockies in the 7th round in 1993, Thomson exceeded the production of 1992 2nd round draft pick Mark Thompson, who I often confuse him for. Thomson reached the big leagues in 1997 as a 23 year old and had immediate success, posting 2.7 WAR (7-9, 4.71 ERA) and following that up with another 2.7 WAR (8-11, 4.81) season in 1998.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Thomson hard after 1998, and he managed only half seasons in 1999 and 2001 with no season at all in 2000. Finally healthy in 2002, Thomson was traded at the July deadline with Mark Little to the Mets for a package that included Jay Payton. After the trade Thomson had a few injury-free years and performed well for the Rangers and the Braves, then was ultimately undone by more injuries.

8. Jeff Francis

Career WAR: 6.2 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.7, 2006-2008 (5th)
Top Season: 2.5, 2006 (13th)
Average Rank: 8.33

The 9th overall pick in the 2002 draft out of Canada, Jeff Francis moved rapidly through the Rockies' system and was with the big club by 2004 as a 23 year old. Francis finished sixth in the ROY voting in 2005, his first full season, then enjoyed two very nice years in 2006 and 2007.

The soft-tossing lefty equaled Ritz's and Astacio's franchise wins mark with his 17-9 record in 2007 (he had 2.2 WAR) and finished 9th in the Cy Young Award voting. However, he suffered a torn labrum after a tough 2008 and has been rehabbing the injury since then.

The Physicist has one year left on his contract ($5.75 million) with a $7 million club option for 2010. It will be interesting to see if Francis can ever return to his early form and make it worthwhile for the Rockies to exercise that option. I've taken a pretty pessimistic view on this injury from the start, so my money is that Francis will never contribute significantly to the team again. I would love to be proved wrong though.

Other great single seasons include Joe Kennedy's 2004 (4.7 WAR) and Roger Bailey's 1997 (3.2).

Career Underachievers: Mike Hampton (-1, though he was worth 2 WAR batting), Denny Neagle (1.1), Scott Elarton (-2.9), and Livan Hernandez (-1.2).

Others of note: Jimenez (3.4 and on his way to a place high on this list very soon), Darryl Kile (4.1), Jamey Wright (4.6), Shawn Chacon (2.2, but 3.9 as a starter), Josh Fogg (-0.6) Greg Reynolds (-1.5).

Next week I'll reveal the unholy amalgamation that is the Colorado Rockies All-WAR team.

Purple Row interviews Marc Gustafson, Part 2

RockiesMagicNumber — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:00:33 -0000

As you read in our first in this 3-part series, Rockies Director of Player Development Marc Gustafson took time to answer some questions for Purple Row. In this installment, Mr. Gustafson answers a lot of questions about specific farmhands, and we begin to touch on players recently drafted.

Apologies for the delay in Part 2, but here we have it.

RMN: Now, since a lot of fans don't get a chance to watch the guys - I mean, we can follow the box scores, we do a near-daily report on what the minor league clubs have been doing - is there a particular player that might not be having that great of a year that Rockies fans should be more aware of?

Marc Gustafson: Wow, that's a tough question. If you look at box scores and you look at team statistics and stats and things like that, I think that we should all be very proud of the year that we've had. In terms of an individual, you know, we've had some success there too. Maybe a guy under the radar screen would be Darin Holcomb, 3B in Tulsa, starting to hit, starting to put up big numbers. He's a guy that we think - coming out of his season last year in Asheville, he was voted the Most Valuable Player, he went to Hawaii, he struggled, we jumped to Modesto with him, we sent him to Tulsa. He struggled early, but now he's starting to hit. He's going to go to the Arizona Fall League. So he might be one example of a guy...the batting average isn't going to jump out at you - I think it's about .275 right now, he has 13, 14 home runs, but those numbers are starting to build up, starting to rise to the top. He was just voted to the postseason All Star team in the Texas League. Maybe a guy like that would be somebody early on that was under the radar screen that is now starting to surface a little bit.

RMN: I know that Rox Girl and Russ keep an eye on these guys a lot closer than a lot of the other people do. How do you feel about Holcomb's glove at 3B?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, he's solid. He's a solid major-league defender. He's got a very strong arm, he's got an accurate arm, he moves well, he's an athlete at 3B. He loves to play the game, he's a grinder. He's a tough guy over there. Definitely, he'd be in the "prospect" category, as he moves into what we would hope to be a AAA situation next year.

RMN: AAA would be a big jump, definitely exciting to hear that we have more coming, given our depths. Where would you say the strongest and weakest positional groups are in our farm? Obviously, in the majors we have a glut of solid Outfield.

Marc Gustafson: Well, I would have said Middle Infield. Obviously, we lost Cabrera, we loved Everth Cabrera, and I hope he has a wonderful career, because he's such a special person. He's with the Padres right now.

RMN: I promise you we're aware of Everth Cabrera on Purple Row!

Marc Gustafson: Hector Gomez is a very talented SS, and he'll be in the AFL as well. I would probably look to the middle infield as being a strength in the organization. I would also look at the pitching depth in the bullpen, some big-time arm strength guys. Shane Lindsay, Edgar Escalona with the Tulsa Club, Alberto Alburquerque with the Tulsa Club, Andrew Johnston, Craig Baker with Modesto. We've got some really good arms and bullpen depth in the minor league system.

RMN: Oh, so we're pretty high on Alburquerque. We didn't know much about him when we heard about the [Jeff] Baker trade. It's good to hear that he's a guy that everybody has their eyes on. Speaking of Hector Gomez, we kind of lump Hector Gomez and Wil Rosario into the same category: a couple of years out, but these guys have a lot of raw stuff. When do you see them being able to contribute?

Marc Gustafson: Well, I would think a couple of years. They're high-end talent. You look at prospect categories, and each organization is a little bit different, but they'd be in the "top tier" category in our system in terms of position player prospect talent. Hector and Wilin Rosario are going to play in the AFL, and that's a very very talented league. So if they go and they handle that league well, you're looking maybe at a AA situation next year, and shortly thereafter, you'd hope they'd be knocking on the door at the big league level.

RMN: We're all looking forward to it as well. We all know 2B has been a little bit of an interesting situation the last couple of years.

Marc Gustafson: Yep.

RMN: In terms of other prospects we were expecting to be seeing soon, what do you expect of the injured guys like Chris Nelson, Casey Weathers, Greg Reynolds, or even Greg Smith? What's the word on them right now? What do we think about them going forward?

Marc Gustafson: I'd put Jeff Francis in that category as well. I know he's been there and done that, but those guys are looking at the Arizona Instructional League Program, they're going to participate in that program very soon as we head to Tucson on the 19^th of September. To get them back onto the field, that makes us even better, to have that caliber talent helping and contributing and getting ready for next year. Really, their focus is on their health number one, getting back on the field this fall and being full-strength and ready to go for Spring Training next year.

RMN: Speaking of injured players rehabbing, my understanding is Casey Weathers is with the Dust Devils right now. How is his rehab coming along?

Marc Gustafson: He's doing well. He had a couple of setbacks here and there throughout the rehab process. In terms of his strength and range of motion and how he's feeling right now, he's feeling as good as he's ever felt since the surgery. He's throwing in a long-toss program; he'll be off the mound before too long as we get into Tucson. To have a guy like that back and contributing in the bullpen, that gives us the depth we're looking for.

RMN: Obviously being injured and coming back from Tommy John, it's always a bit tricky to try and forecast in general. A lot of people have complained that all our relief pitchers seem to be rentals. It's important to remind them that we do have Corpas and Buchholz coming back next season, but can we consider Weathers to be someone in the 2010 mix?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, I think definitely. This is a guy that competed in the Olympics and had a great season in Tulsa, and was getting real close, and unfortunately, he had the injury. He's going to rehab and get back and be ready for Spring Training next year. That's his primary focus. Sometimes to go through some adversity - it might sound crazy, but it's not the end of the world. It's getting the arm fixed at a young age and come back and have a successful major league career. We're very confident he's going to be in that category.

RMN: Along with him, are there any other AA/AAA players that we see making an impact or being a surprise for us next year?

Marc Gustafson: You guys have already probably seen and talked about Jhoulys Chacin, he's a special talent; he's going to be back in the mix in the very near future. Esmil Rogers, starter in AAA Colorado Springs, he's a very talented right-handed starter. You go to Sammy Deduno, who was just named Texas League Pitcher of the Year, he's going to be in the mix. You know, you keep those pitchers coming, and then you mix in a few guys who have done well in the bullpen - Matt Reynolds from Tulsa, Andrew Johnston from Tulsa, the Colorado Springs group that we have there now, we do have a few veteran guys, but at the same point in time, you're looking for as many quality arms as you can find, and I think we've got a few.

RMN: Does Deduno look more to be in the rotation mix or the bullpen mix?

Marc Gustafson: Right now we're going to keep him in the rotation, just because he has such premium stuff, he deserves the opportunity to start. But it wouldn't be too far-fetched to say that next year he could be in the bullpen mix coming out of spring training.

RMN: Given the amount of starting talent we have coming up the pipe pretty soon, that wouldn't be a surprise at all. Now, a personal favorite of mine, Keith Weiser in AA - I'm not sure why, but I just latched onto the guy - tell me how awesome Keith Weiser is, please.

Marc Gustafson: He's an awesome guy. You picked a good one to have as a favorite; he's just as great off the field as he is on! He had a great outing last night, in fact. He's had some rough ones here and there, but you know what, he's at the AA level, and there's some good hitters, so you have to give credit to them. It's a matter of making adjustments, and he certainly did last night against the Springfield club.

RMN: Absolutely. In terms of adjustments, let me jump to a more extreme case. Is Scott Beerer the next Rick Ankiel?

Marc Gustafson: Haha, it's interesting you bring that up, because this has been a wonderful story. This guy has so much heart and he has so much passion to play the game, I wouldn't put it past him. He's at Modesto and his numbers still are great. We're trying very hard to get him a winter ball job so he can continue to play - because that's what he needs, he needs ABs, he needs to play. I wouldn't put it past him, just because he believes he's a big leaguer and he's gone out and done a pretty good job each and every night. I love the kid, personally, and the organization is very proud of what he's been able to do. We'd like to see him play winter ball and see where that takes him as we go into spring training next year.

RMN: That's very encouraging. Everyone loves to watch the hard worker type. Now, Russ told me to say that he asked this specifically: "I'm a really big fan of Joey Wong's, but I realize he has a tough road ahead of him. Can he be the organization's David Eckstein?"

Marc Gustafson: Yes.

RMN: ...Alright!

Marc Gustafson: Yes, this kid can play defense. He might be the best defender that we've had at Tri-Cities level or rookie ball level. He knows how to play the game, without a doubt. He's a wonderful talent in terms of his glove, his ability to make throws off-balance, his ability to move around in the field to get himself in the right position. And you know what, his bat, we're going to work very hard with his bat in the Instructional League and we'll see where it takes him, but I would say Yes.

RMN: Alright, I'm sure Russ will be excited to hear that. He brought up another player in Jeremiah Sammy, says "He came out of nowhere as an undrafted free agent. What is the strongest aspect of his game?"

Marc Gustafson: Well, we got him based on his defense and his arm strength, thinking that if we didn't see development with the bat, then we'd put him on the mound and see what we could do with his arm strength because he's got premium arm strength. He's shown up extremely well, and he's put together a great season up here in Tri-Cities. We're going to take him to Instructional League and keep working with him, and let him - I guess the best way to say it is let's let him fail first, if he does fail at the infield position, and then we'll see what he can do if that point in time comes. And who knows, that time may not come!

RMN: It's always a possibility! Now, Tri-City being the lowest A-ball level, where does it fit into the organization in terms of what players are sent there? You hear about a lot of people jumping right over Tri-Cities, or jumping right over Casper and going straight to Tri-Cities. Can you speak a little bit to that?

Marc Gustafson: Well, Tri-Cities is a step higher, in our opinion, above Casper. Casper is our lowest entry-level club. Tri-Cities and Casper, we try and find a balance. When we go into the draft we put the names on the board of who we have in spring training and then we fill in with what Bill Schmidt and the scouting department takes in the draft. A lot of it is based on age and where they've played. For example, the high schoolers: Nolan Arenado and our 1^st round pick Tyler Matzek, they're in Casper. The older, maybe college players, for example Tim Wheeler and Rex Brothers, they started in Tri-Cities, although Rex Brothers is now with Asheville. It's more, in our organization, age and where they've played.

RMN: Well, I'm glad you brought up the guys in the draft, because we have a handful of questions about them. What are the club's plans for Arenado, position-wise? I know he's been playing 3B as we're a bit thin there, but are there any plans to try him out as a catcher?

Marc Gustafson: We're not going to rush into that. We know that is an option for us, but this kid can play 3B. He doesn't have the straight-ahead running speed that some of the others do, but he has wonderful hands, and he can throw. So that's an option behind the plate with him, but our primary focus right now is let him play 3B and let him swing the bat. Because he can really swing the bat.

RMN: I'll save my Matzek questions for the end, as he's the biggest story there. What kind of power is the organization projecting for Tim Wheeler?

Marc Gustafson: The power is going to come. It's going to be a bit like Charlie Blackmon. I don't know if you're familiar with Charles Blackmon at Modesto right now, but these guys are line drive type hitters, meaning gap-to-gap, hit the ball where it's pitched. With some maturity and some strength developing, I think the home run potential and their ability to drive the ball out of the ballpark is going to come. But that's going to come a little bit later in their career, maybe a little bit like [Garrett] Atkins or even Matt Holliday, and they came from the system. But both Tim Wheeler and Charlie Blackmon, they're athletes, first and foremost. They can play CF with ease, they've got great arms, they move around well, they can steal bases, they get on base. They really do everything that you're looking for a CF to do.

----

That will be the end for this time, but we'll have one final installment covering the draft, some other favorite farmhands, and some parting words from Mr. Gustafson!

Wednesday Rockpile: Ruminations on Seth Smith and Jose Contreras

Jabberwocky — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:34:18 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

For the love of all that is holy, Tracy, play Seth Smith!

Browse more photos »

The Rockies not only ended a five game losing streak with a 8-3 victory over the Mets last night, but they also surged a game ahead over the Giants in the Wild Card race--a lead that I surmise Colorado will not relinquish the rest of the year.

In very related news Seth Smith was in the starting lineup for the Rockies, only his third start in eight games (and with Dexter Fowler on the DL). Smith's 3-4 game raised his wOBA to .394, behind only Todd Helton. Dixie also has the third highest WAR total on the team in limited action.

Despite the glut of outfielders on the Rockies roster, Smith really needs to play more. If that playing time comes at the expense of Brad Hawpe and Ryan Spilborghs, so be it. My hope is that with Jason Giambi on the roster as a left-handed bat off the bench, Jim Tracy will look for Smith to provide more of a starting role.

Speaking of Giambi, the 38 year old slugger made quite an entrance into the Rockies clubhouse. Colorado killed the Mets with their patience last night, drawing seven walks--including two with the bases juiced (an unfortunate idiom for Giambi, who drew one of them). The Rockies are excited about what Giambi brings to the club.

Garrett Atkins got a rare start against a right hander last night and took advantage, going 2-3 with another bases loaded walk. He was only starting because Ian Stewart's wife was giving birth to their first child--congratulations to the Stewart family! Also noted in Renck's article is the fact that Greg Reynolds and Greg Smith were both placed on the 60 day DL to make room for Giambi and Paul Phillips on the 40 man roster.

Contreras Talk

Within this Renck article is news that Aaron Cook expects to throw again in the regular season, though not for another 2-3 weeks. In the meantime, Jose Contreras will get the chance to prove his worth to the Rockies. To make room for Contreras, the Rockies designated catcher Edwin Bellorin for assignment.

ESPN Insider's Keith Law reviews the Contreras deal, liking the move from Colorado's side. His opinion mirrors mine, especially with this money quote:

It's no guarantee, but with Contreras the Rockies at least get the possibility of a few strong outings down the stretch in a race that might be decided by just a game or two.

Buster Olney writes about waiver warfare and while he refers to the Red Sox and Yankees, the NL West performed their own form of an arms race at the waiver trading deadline.

The Rockies were purportedly unfazed by this trading flurry, though I'm not sure I buy that. What I do think is that of the three NL West teams, the Rockies got the best players (if not necessarily the best deals).

Sure, Jim Thome is great at hitting, but he won't be able to play in the field at all (Rob Neyer wonders why he was signed) while Jon Garland and Brad Penny don't have the potential that Contreras brings to the table, Cuban octogenarian or not. So you could say that I'm one of the few brave souls drinking the Contreras Kool-Aid (have some, it's terrific). I guess Ronnie Belliard could tip the scales in LA's favor, you know, if you're into Ronnie Belliard.

Tracy Ringolsby offers a quick and dirty Contreras-Penny comparison for those who remain unconvinced--and there are many of you.

Playoff Odds

Coolstandings (55.4%)

Baseball Prospectus Original/PECOTA/ELO (62.9/54.7/59.6)

Sportsclubstats (Graphical--63.0%) Most likely record is from 89-92 wins according to simulation.

Power Rankings

CBSSports--because I'm sure that somebody wants to read them.

Poll

Who got the best of the waiver trading deadline arms race?

Dodgers: Jim Thome is the best bat and Jon Garland is a workhorse that throws strikes. Plus, Ronnie Belliard!

95 votes

Giants: Brad Penny came cheaply and he has pitched well in the NL West in the past.

55 votes

Rockies: Jason Giambi is no slouch with the bat and offers defensive utility while Jose Contreras has the highest ceiling of the pitchers.

117 votes

267 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday Rockpile: The Rise of Troy

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 15:24:51 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Troy has gone from Dirtbag to King.

Browse more photos »

Prince Troy, Queen Helen and I salute you

Sadly, I missed last night's game. I was out celebrating the landing of a new job and didn't witness a second, but I hear our shortstop had a pretty special night.

For the second straight night, the Rockies pounded Chicago pitching while abandoning Cubs all over the bases. But of course, that wasn't the story line. Troy Tulowitzki hit for cycle, becoming the fifth Rockie to hit for the cycle (all at home) and the eighth in Coors Field history. No other MLB park has seen more than five since 1995.

A quick glance at the Rockies history book shows Rockies fans were spoiled, witnessing four cycles in barely a two year span before Tulowitzki ended the home team's nine-year drought. Some other facts from Tulo's big day:

He was the first shortstop in MLB history to go 5-for-5 with 7 RBI.
He became the first NL player with an unassisted triple play and a cycle in his career. John Valentin of the Red Sox is the only AL player with the feat.
A prospective grand slam was called a foul ball and was the first replay reviewed utilized in a Rockies or Cubs game. Due to inconclusive replay, the call was sustained as a foul ball. Had it been a grand slam, ignoring the butterfly effect for fun, he would have still had the cycle, two home runs, and 9 RBI. No Blake Street Bomber ever achieved 9 RBI in a game.
As it stood, the 7 RBI was Tulowitzki's career high.
In truth, Tulo's triple was a function of the Cubs' continuously poor fielding and a bit of a homer scoring call. Guys don't triple down the left field line unless they are Dexter Fowler.
The cycle was the sixth in MLB this year and just the second in the NL.
Tulowitzki's ranks among NL MLB shortstops: HR (1st), RBI (3rd), BBs (2nd), SLG% (3rd), SBs (6th), wOBA (3rd), WAR (5th). All of that in spite of a .305 BABIP, which is below MLB average for shortstops and 35+ points below the only shortstops that challenge him in the above statistics. Good thing we didn't trade him. If he had a line drive rate even as good as Asdrubal Cabrera....

You can thank Brad Hawpe, who went 1-for-5, for the cycle feat. From Troy Renck:

The 24-year-old shortstop was a triple shy of the cycle. Hit a ball behind an outfielder, Hawpe said, and there's no stopping.

"I swear I wouldn't have gone if he hadn't said anything," Tulowitzki said. "It was craziest thing that has ever happened."

The way the nearly grand slam instant replay was handled inspired a new Mark Kiszla rant. He spends most of the piece stating that baseball is way beyond the curve technologically with these things and that they need to progress significantly. He then backtracks at the end, aided by a Tulo quote, saying "Human error is part of what makes sports such compelling drama...All we're asking is: If baseball is going to employ instant replay, at least try to do it right."

A USATODAY piece points out a trend Rockies fans have come to notice: as Tulo goes, so do the Rockies.

Other Rockies News

What kind of encore can the Rockies have for last night? How about an MLB starting debut for their top prospect? Jhoulys Chacin will get the start tonight against Ross Ohlendorf and the Pirates with a pitch count of 70-75. Jim Tracy actually had more confidence in Josh Fogg, and that's why Chacin gets the start. Should Chacin blow up and Tracy need to utilize a reliever to bite the bullet and pitch multiple innings, the Rox manager was more comfortable with the erstwhile Dragon Slayer taking on that job.

Courtesy of an article by Harry Pavladis of BtB from two weeks ago, here is a literal pitch tracking image of Jhoulys Chacin's pitches:

Aaron Cook saw a foot specialist for the sprain and inflammation in his right big toe - his push-off foot. Cook will throw Thursday in a bullpen session but for now seems on course to start Saturday in Florida

If Troy is Tulo Jit to Quit, then maybe Seth Smith is "Too Legit to Sit." Troy Renck addresses the Rockies almost too deep outfield issue in his latest mailbag, essentially stating that Ryan Spilborghs will move on after this year (big surprise) and that Seth Smith doomed himself by succeeding as a pinch-hitter.

Dexter Fowler made a tremendous catch last night, crashing into the wall in the ninth to make the grab, sealing a spot in ESPN's top plays. Such a play is scary for the Rockies centerfielder, who broke his right hand crashing into the wall. No broken bones this time. He bruised his knee and likely will sit tonight but should be fine.

Torrealba hits hot streak, gets chance to start - The Denver Post
Yorvit got consecutive starts for the first time since Iannetta was on the disabled list, nine weeks ago. He claims he is "200% mentally" right now. Also in the article, Greg Reynolds won't pitch anymore this year and will likely go to the instructional league after the season to overhaul his delivery. Manuel Corpas will play catch today in the first step for his attempted return next month.

In terms of scoreboard watching, the Dodgers beat the Giants last night, giving the Rockies sole possession of the wild card but keeping them 5.5 games out of first in the NL West. Randy Wolf faces Joe Martinez tonight at 8:05 MDT.

Tuesday Rockpile: Rox Stars to represent NL tonight, Are the Giants a farce?

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:58:53 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Troy Tulowitzki is always in the middle of everything, including the only file photo with both Rockies' All-Stars in it.

Browse more photos »

Sorry for the late Pile this morning. My dinosaur of a computer decided to go into a morning coma.

All-Star News

Hawpe, Marquis humbly lifting Rockies | ColoradoRockies.com: News
TR Sullivan and Thomas Harding feature the Rockies two All-Stars this year, complete with a video interview.

Woody Paige's column from yesterday speaks about how Brad Hawpe is now shining out from under the shadow he's been blocked by for most of his career. There's actually some flowers among the weeds in the piece giving Hawpe his due praise and credit, but I can't resist pointing out he's not the most valuable outfielder for the Rockies, at least according to WAR.

Hawpe won't be an All-Star starter, but at least a Colorado native will take the mound first for the AL. Halladay was named the A.L. starter, to nobody's surprise.

Prince outslugs field to take Derby crown | MLB.com: News
Prince Fielder edged out upstart Nelson Cruz for the derby win last night, bringing up the obligatory question: how will this derby affect the sluggers' swings the rest of the season? You may have seen such arguments before, but RJ Anderson at Fangraphs reaffirms: there is no carry over effect. He uses solid arguments of regression and the fact that contestants are more likely to have hit an inordinate number of home runs in the season's first half to earn a spot in the derby.

The Doc

In case you haven't noticed, Jays ace Roy Halladay is on trade block.

Troy Renck's mailbag is populated by fans with high hopes for Halladay, and it also answers why players' back pockets are inside out sometimes, which I believe someone asked in a game thread a few weeks back.

For your morning comedy, check out Woody's Paige column:: Halladay could make it happen. Among the gems, a self-righteous personal declaration of sage wisdom for forseeing Halladay's apparent availability (don't think he was the only one), a Krukism ("They're not likely to be the NL's Wild Card team" - 2GB in 2nd place is one foot in the grave I guess), and of course, the irrational trade suggestion:

Why not Brandon Hynick, Alan Johnson and Greg Reynolds — three hopefuls in Colorado Springs — for a future Hall of Famer?

At least there's no Quintanilla this time. Sigh.

In news related to the Rockies' actual rotation, as tipped by Foo Man yesterday, the Rockies Rotation is Set For Second Half, according to Jack Etkin.

NL West Standings with matthew carruth's luck factor added

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	56	32	.636	0	Won 1
Colorado	49	39	.556	7	Won 1
Arizona	46	43	.534	10.5	Lost 1
San Francisco	39	49	.426	17	Lost 1
San Diego	37	51	.409	19	Won 1

(updated 7.14.2009 at 8:23 AM MDT)

So the Giants have been VERY lucky. Yeah I know, luck is part of the game and I have 21 reasons not to eliminate luck. And yeah, I know - his method seems mystical and fabricated and far less real than the results on the field. I'm just pointing out he IS an unbiased party, and this is yet another piece of analysis on an overwhelming pile - like this or this or this - that point to the Rockies actually being better than the Giants. Maybe they are on to something. If there is any validity to Matthew's findings, the only question is whether the Giants' luck can be attributed to grit, which is sustainable, or blind luck, which is not.

Matt Herges was DFA'd by the Indians. I would advocate taking a flyer. If you need any reasons why, go back and check out RMN's Counting Rocks on Herges from July 4.

Pirates writers have apparently given up on matching up Freddy Sanchez with the Rockies, but they still are trying to match Eric Young Jr. in a trade, this time for bullpen help. No further details.

2009 MLB Trade Value: Introduction | FanGraphs Baseball
Last link of the day. Fangraphs is ranking the top 50 most valuable players in MLB, if involved in a trade. This weighs out production as well as potential, contrac length and money owed. They've posted #50-46 so far. It could be an interesting read to monitor.

Evan Longoria Vs. Tim Lincecum Three Years Later

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:22:31 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

2008 AL Rookie of The Year Award Winner Evan Longoria

Browse more photos »

Three years ago the Rays were ready to draft Tim Lincecum with the third pick in the 2006 MLB Draft. Later on in life in a radio interview, Andrew Friedman said the Rays were not only ready to draft Lincecum, but the two sides had discussed a contract. The reason the Rays targeted Lincecum is because they were under the impression that the player atop their draft board, Evan Longoria, would go second overall to the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies decided to draft Greg Reynolds instead of Longoria and the rest is history. Longoria is the reigning AL Rookie of the Year and a two time all star. Reynolds has pitched 62 innings of unimpressive baseball in his major league career, but at least they have Jason Hammel.

While Longoria has been a stud in the Rays lineup, Linceum has been arguably the best starting pitching in the National League, if not the entire major leagues for the past year and a half. The 2008 NL Cy Young Winner went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA/2.62 FIP last season. The matching FIP/ERA just goes to show the "freak" is no fluke. In 2009, Lincecum has been even better. After last night's start he is 10-2 with a 2.33 ERA. His 1.99 FIP suggest that he has been even BETTER than his ERA. Lincecum is striking out 10.50 batters per nine while walking under two and a half. He has allowed just four home runs in 127.2 innings and has struck out at least eight batters in his last six starts.

It's hard to say the Rays made a bad choice with Longoria, but Lincecum has racked up a WAR of 16.1 over his career while Longoria has just crossed the 9.0 WAR threshold. Hindsight is 20-20 and remember, there is no guarantee that Lincecum would be as good as he is had he been pitching in the neutral Tropicana Field and facing better competition in the AL East.

We could play the "what if" game all we want, but the Rays got themselves a perennial AL MVP candidate at a position where there isn't much talent in the majors. Sure there are some fine third basemen in the game, but how many better than Longoria, if any? While it would be insane to have a rotation of James Shields, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, David Price and Tim Lincecum, the Rays still remain one of the more pitching rich organizations in the league without Timmy. In a perfect world, I would love the Rays to have both Longoria and Lincecum, but I'm still plenty happy with the way things turned out.

2006 MLB First Round WAR

Hochevar	2
Reynolds	-0.5
Longoria	9
Lincoln	N/A
Marrow	1
Miller	2.8
Kershaw	3.3
Stubbs	N/A
Rowell	N/A
Lincecum	16.1
Scherzer	3.3
Kiker	N/A
Colvin	N/A
Snider	0.1
Marrero	N/A
Jeffress	N/A
Antonelli	-0.4
Drabek	N/A
Sinkbeil	N/A
Parmelee	N/A
Kennedy	0.5
Willems	N/A
Sapp	N/A
Johnson	N/A
Conger	N/A
Morris	N/A
Place	N/A
Bard	0.4
McCulloch	N/A
Ottavino	N/A

Wednesday Rockpile: Rockies Should Move Forward After Tough Loss

Jabberwocky — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:28:51 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Tulo sure loves those high pitches.

Browse more photos »

Rockies' record road streak falls in shaky eighth - Renck

Well, the Rockies certainly had their chances last night--truly a game they should have won.Those games sting for me more than those of the blowout loss variety.

It all really came down to the fundamentals of playing bunt defense (we're looking at you Ian Stewart)--that and Clint Barmes went 0-4 with RISP (three times failing to execute with a runner on third and less than two out!) and Brad Hawpe was 0-3, failing to give the Rockies some sorely needed insurance runs.

In all, the Rockies were an abysmal 0-10 with RISP! Even a mediocre showing in that category would have won the Rockies the game last night.

As a result, Ubaldo Jimenez took the hard luck loss and the Rockies fell to 17-2 in their last 19. In other words, some market correction is probably in order for the Rockies, who have won a few of these games themselves during the streak. It doesn't make suffering such a loss any easier though.

A positive sign was the fact that the Rockies were seeing a bunch of pitches--chasing starter Sean O'Sullivan after five innings with over 100 pitches after consistently going deep into counts on him. Usually such an effort will lead to a victory, but alas, twas not to be last night.

Tulo stands tall, hits homers - Renck

Colorado wasted a stellar night from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who used a new upright stance to mash two HRs and provided all of the Rockies' three RBIs. Within the article are updates on Manny Corpas and Greg Reynolds.

Rotation helps put fuel into remarkable run - Renck

Renck notes the excellent effort put forth by the starters during the 17-1 streak (15-1, 3.40 ERA).

O'Dowd trades places - Krieger

Dave Krieger reexamines the Holliday trade and looks at the Rockies' needs for the rest of the season.

Resurgent Rockies reliving 2007 glory under new leadership - Miller

CBSSports' Scott Miller looks at the Rockies' run, crediting in large part Jim Tracy's tenure as manager and the lineup moves he made.

Postseason Odds--BP

The Rockies didn't lose much off of their playoff odds with the loss (38%), as the Brewers and Cubs both also lost, and remain 1.5 GB in the wild card.

National League Wild Card Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
San Francisco	38	32	.542	0	Won 1
Milwaukee	37	33	.528	1	Lost 4
Colorado	37	34	.521	1.5	Lost 1
New York	35	34	.507	2.5	Lost 1
Chicago	34	33	.507	2.5	Lost 2
Florida	36	36	.500	3	Won 3
Cincinnati	34	35	.492	3.5	Lost 3
Atlanta	34	36	.485	4	Won 2
Houston	32	36	.470	5	Lost 1
San Diego	31	38	.449	6.5	Won 2
Pittsburgh	31	39	.442	7	Lost 5
Arizona	30	41	.422	8.5	Won 1
Washington	20	48	.294	17	Lost 2

(updated 6.24.2009 at 8:06 AM MDT)

Hitting Streak Ends For Murton | Etkin

On the theme of all good things coming to an end, Matt Murton's stellar hitting streak ceased at 29 games. Also in this article are updates on Yorvit Torrealba, Jeff Baker, and Ryan Speier.

Hurdle still in Rockies' corner | Harding

Recently fired manager Clint Hurdle likes the Rockies' chances, predicting a World Series victory (of course).

13 Former Rockies Among Hall Eligibles | Etkin

Not that any Rockies are serious candidates for Hall admission at this point, but it is interesting to see some of the names on the ballot. Larry Walker will be the Rockies' first serious candidate for the Hall, but he won't have eligibility until next year, I believe.

CBS Power Rankings - Dobrow

I know how some of you feel about power rankings, but the Rockies are ranked fourth--worth at least skimming.

Thursday Rockpile: What it will take to sign Matzek, and oh yeah, we're winning. A lot.

Rox Girl — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:26:39 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Troy Tulowitzki's returning power is a big part of the Rockies resurgence.

Browse more photos »

So the Rockies win streak continues, the draft continues, and our fretting over whether top pick Tyler Matzek will sign or not continues, this is all still a much better position to be in than we were a month ago.

Back to the middle link in the above sentence to a Troy E. Renck blog entry at the DP because I want to explore the Matzek issue a little. The following are the largest signing bonuses ever handed out by the Rockies according to Baseball America, as well as the highest value of a contract the Rockies purportedly offered 2000 first round selection Matt Harrington:

Name	Year	Bonus
Greg Reynolds	2006	$3,250,000
Jason Young	2000	$2,750,000
Troy Tulowitzki	2005	$2,300,000
Chin-Hui Tsao	1999	$2,200,000
Chris Nelson	2004	$2,150,000
Matt Harrington	2000	$4,900,000*

Matt Harrington never signed and the money was for an eight year contract, not a bonus, you can read more about his saga here.

So this will all be speculation on my part, but I'll try and spell out where I'm coming from. At any rate, my first point would be that Matzek can expect to top Reynolds' bonus, so Renck's estimate of a $2.8 million to $3 million offer being the highest the Rockies will go to haul him in seems doubtful. Reynolds had more experience and a better draft position, but everybody has to be honest here that Matzek's the superior talent. At the other end of the spectrum, the Rick Porcello deal that Matzek wishes to emulate (like Harrington's offer it wasn't a true bonus but a four year contract) seems a scarier bridge to cross than it might turn out to be. I doubt a Matzek contract with the Rockies reaches that sum, but if he's able to step off of it, using Porcello as a model of sizable bonus plus an MLB contract might be more within the team's grasp.

I'm also looking at the deal that Matzek's agent Greg Genske worked out with the Reds and Yonder Alonso last season as a model. It's another MLB contract which came in at a value just over $4.55 million dollars for the seventh selection of the 2008 draft. Alonso was a college draftee and a position player, so there's an expectation of earlier success built into that, but looking over those negotiations gives us a sense of how Genske operates. I think piecing everything together gives us the following for what we should expect a Matzek deal to look like were it to get done.

A signing bonus north of $3,250,000, breaking the Rockies record
Additionally, it's likely to be an MLB contract similar to Porcello or Beckett that will pay him more over four or more seasons
Incentives like those in the Alonso contract including college tuition and family trips to see his debut as well as bonuses for awards such as the ROY he earns
A sum value of the contract less than Porcello and Beckett, but at least equal to what the Rockies offered Harrington, which puts it somewhere between $4.9 million and $7 million.

Are the Monforts and the Rockies willing to go this far? Is Matzek willing to drop down to that Harrington level to get a deal done and his professional career started?

Related: Buster Olney: Signability still an MLB draft trump card - ESPN - Buster Olney Blog on ESPN.com.

While signing Matzek might be an issue, not so with most of our other picks. Both fourth round selection Kent Matthes, a right fielder out of Alabama, and fifth round selection Joe Sanders, a third baseman from Auburn, expect to sign and start playing quickly in the Rockies organization. Both are relatively polished and from the South, so while I would expect them to be sent to Tri-City, Asheville might not be completely out of the question. That said, I watched the Tourists last night, and they seem to be clicking fairly well with their current mix of players, I'm not sure who would get bumped there and where to make room.

Same goes for supplemental pick Rex Brothers and our other first round selection, Tim Wheeler:

Said Wheeler: "The signing thing will happen in a few days, I'm sure, but right now, I'm just really excited about being drafted."

****

Fowler getting on base often, fueling revival - The Denver Post - OBP is good.

Christian Friedrich is turning heads as a Colorado Rockies prospect - ESPN - Jason Grey says that a scout sees Friedrich as a top of the rotation starter in the Erik Bedard mold. This was copied and pasted as a FanPost last night/early this morning. Please do not do this, link the story in a FanShot, but don't just trample over copywright law

Tulowitzki putting muscle into bid to return to power - The Denver Post

Inside the Colorado Rockies " Quick hits: Starters earning wins

SB Nation - Greg Reynolds

Tuesday Rockpile: Has Dan O'Dowd forged MLB's best small market model?

Locking down leading men

Dan O'Clown or Bozo Beane?

Last cold links

Monday Rockpile: Rockies seek the correct postseason roster

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Starting Pitchers)

Starting Pitchers

Purple Row interviews Marc Gustafson, Part 2

Wednesday Rockpile: Ruminations on Seth Smith and Jose Contreras

Contreras Talk

Playoff Odds

Power Rankings

Who got the best of the waiver trading deadline arms race?

Dodgers: Jim Thome is the best bat and Jon Garland is a workhorse that throws strikes. Plus, Ronnie Belliard!

Giants: Brad Penny came cheaply and he has pitched well in the NL West in the past.

Rockies: Jason Giambi is no slouch with the bat and offers defensive utility while Jose Contreras has the highest ceiling of the pitchers.

Tuesday Rockpile: The Rise of Troy

Prince Troy, Queen Helen and I salute you

Other Rockies News

Tuesday Rockpile: Rox Stars to represent NL tonight, Are the Giants a farce?

All-Star News

The Doc

Other Links

NL West Standings with matthew carruth's luck factor added

Evan Longoria Vs. Tim Lincecum Three Years Later

Wednesday Rockpile: Rockies Should Move Forward After Tough Loss

National League Wild Card Standings

Thursday Rockpile: What it will take to sign Matzek, and oh yeah, we're winning. A lot.