SB Nation - Vinny Castilla

Looking for optimism in the Feliz signing

clack — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:37:35 -0000

J.R. Towles looks on after Feliz hit a grand slam against the Astros last year. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Although Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive third baseman, his offense is more flawed. Feliz fits the profile of a lower batting average, low OBP hitter, whose saving offfensive feature is the ability to hit a decent number of HRs (averages 18 HR/season). Since Feliz's HR totals declined in 09, critics point to a likely decline in power as Feliz heads into his mid-30's. So, I will take a look at Feliz's offense to see if we can find any reason for optimism. This article isn't about making a projection for Feliz--if you want that, you can look at CHONE, Bill James, and ZIPS projections, all of which project a slight improvement in Feliz's offense over 2009--but rather trying to find some glimmers of hope that Feliz could provide a better offensive contribution than we expect.

ZIPS shows the two top comparable players to Feliz are Vinny Castilla and Tim Wallach. Castilla is an interesting comparable, in part because of the similarity between the situation surrounding the acquistion of Feliz and Castilla by the Astros. The Astros brought Castilla in as a one year "fix" at the 3d base position in 2001, after young prospects were disappointments at that position. Castilla, a slick fielding 3d baseman, appeared to be in the midst of an offensive decline at the age of 33, but he ended up resurrecting his career with the Astros, hitting 23 HRs and posting a .812 OPS. Castilla's bumpy offensive performance in his mid-30's is illustrated by his HRs totals between ages of 33 and 36: 23, 12, 22, and 35. Castilla had one of his best offensive seasons when he went back to Coors Field at the age of 36 and hit 35 HRs, with 131 RBIs. Tim Wallach had declining offense in Montreal at ages 32-35, and then rebounded as a Dodger at ages 36-37 with an OPS+ of 127 and 106. These two comparable players illustrate that the declining impact of age is not always a straight line, but often a jagged line that includes rebounding offense.

If you wanted to hold out hope for a rebound season for Feliz, I think the possibility of a change in scenery, specifically the ballpark, can rejuvenate a player. Castilla's rebound years after moving to MMP and then Coors Field late in his career might be examples. Feliz is pull hitter to LF; 24 of his 26 HRs over the last two years were hit to LF. And, of course, MMP's Crawford Boxes are only 315 feet away in LF. A player's ballpark stats should be taken with a grain of salt, mostly due to sample size, as well as the inability to control for the quality of opposing pitchers. However, setting aside that warning, I think we can see why Feliz said he liked his trips to Houston as an opposing player. His career triple slash line in Minute Maid Park is quite good:

.301, .326, .530, OPS--.856

In fact, among NL parks only Coors Field (.949) and Nationals Park are better for Feliz, in terms of OPS.

Since the bulk of Feliz's hitting with Houston will be in NL Central ballparks, it might be interesting to look at his offensive output in those ball fields over his career. The statistics below: OPS / HR/PA /PA

MMP	.856	.058	86
GAB	.830	.028	71
Miller	.755	.056	106
Wrigley	.734	..044	89
Busch II	.747	.028	36
PNC	.536	0	75
Feliz Career.	.715	.032	4115
NL Central parks	.745	.039	463

By way of commparison, a .05/PA HR rate is equivalent to 30 home runs per season. Except for the Bucs' PNC park, Feliz's OPS in all of the NL Central parks has been above his career level. PNC, which is far below his career level, also has a huge LF, which probably accounts for his zero HR rate there. Frankly, I'm not sure how much stock to put into this comparison. But it is interesting. And if you want to grab on to a slice of evidence, whether meaningful or not, this could suggest that Feliz might find the NL Central ballparks to his liking.

I have heard some fans suggest that Feliz may be a good clutch hitter, which means his offensive contribution may be greater than his average statistics would indicate. Lately, I have stayed away from situational hitting stats in evaluating potential acquistions, mostly because the concept of clutch hitting is controversial in the sabermetric community and use of clutch offensive stats are subject to sample size issues. However, we do know that some players (Carlos Lee is an example) have shown offensive results in RBI situations which are better than their ovreall hitting stats. We can also test whether Feliz's offense has been better in certain Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) situations.

Selected Situations (OPS)

Feliz Career

RISP .749

RISP, 2 outs .769

Bases Loaded .848

Men On .738

Feliz 2009

RISP .869

RISP, 2 outs ..879

Bases Loaded .952

Men On .848

Setting aside whether clutch hitting is repeatable, the statistics indicate that Feliz was a very good clutch hitter in 2009 and has generally hit better in clutch situations over his career in comparison to his overall OPS. We don't know if this means anything in terms of how Feliz will hit in the clutch in 2010, but at least we know he has been reasonably successful in that role in the past.

So there you have it. You want a few shreds of evidence to make you feel a little more hopeful about Pedro Feliz? Maybe I have helped out.

Rays Family Tree: The Dead Trade Strings of 2001

FreeZorilla — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:00:32 -0000

by Charlie Riedel - AP

Jose Guillen takes a rare pitch

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1999: Aaron Ledesma and Rolando Arrojo for Vinny Castilla (Released 2001)

1999 Trade	Acquired	Trade Salary	PT Stat	NT Stat	Original Draft
Aaron Ledesma	Expansion Draft	$525k	OPS .682/2 yrs	OPS .554/1 yr	2nd Rd 1990 Mets
Rolando Arrojo	AFA	$325K	ERA 4.23/2 yrs	ERA 6.04/1 yr	AmateurFA 1997
for
Vinny Castilla	Released 2001	$6.25 million	OPS .870/9 yrs	OPS .569/ 2yrs	Bought for Mexican team

Pre-Trade:

Formerly a second round pick of the Mets in 1990, Aaron Ledesma was a 26 year-old utility man when the Raysselected him in the 1997 expansion draft. Ledesma would start games at all four infield positions for the Rays in both 1998 and 1999. During his two season run he posted a slash line of .295/.325/.358.

Rolando Arrojo was signed as an amateur free agent in 1997 after defecting from the Cuban national team. The allegedly 29-year-old right hander was a sensations during the Rays inaugural season in which he earned 14 wins and had an ERA of 3.56. His FIP of 4.32 told us he was not quite that good. In 1999, his FIP/ERA were more in line at 5.32/5.18. Its no fun when you know something is too good to be true.

Vinny Castilla was 32 years of age and coming off 7 consecutive seasons of .800+ OPS with the Rockies while manning the hot corner. For his career with the Rockies, which also included stints in 2004 and 2006, he posted a slash line of .294/.340/.530.

Post Trade:

Vinny Castilla was supposed to usher in the Hit Show era. Outside the infamous Colorado air, Castilla proved to be quite average. His career road splits of .257/.303/.435 might have served as a warning sign of what was to come. For those who have spent the past year cursing the Pat Burrell signing of 2009, well, all I can say is its a good thing you weren't on the bandwagon for the Hit Show. In just over one season, and 109 games with the Rays, Castilla put up a line of .219/.253/.316. He certainly was not helped by a .236 BABIP, but he saw his ISO drop to .088. He also only walked 4.1% of the time in 2001. After Navi's season, its probably time to look at the correlation between BABIP and BB%. By contrast, Burrell's OPS in 2009 was .682, or .113 higher than Castilla's with the Rays. Burrell's ISO also was .146, or .058 higher than Castilla's. Finally, Burrell still managed to walk 12.2% of the time, or 8.1% more often than Castilla.

The Rays released Castilla near the beginning of 2001 and he was quickly signed by the Astros. He was far better for the Stros, posting an OPS of .812. He later had two stints with the Rockies and one each with the Braves, Nationals, and Padres. Only with Colorado did Castilla again show flashes of his former self. He retired from baseball in 2006 and is currently serving as a player-manager for a team in the Mexican League, as well as the manager of Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.

Aaron Ledesma had 40 at-bats in 32 games with the Rockies with an OPS of .554. He was granted free agency, had back surgery in 2001. and never played affiliated baseball again. Today, he is an an assistant coach for the Scranton/Wilkes Barre Yankees along with former Ray Scott Aldred. The late PLK of DRB fame interviewed Ledesma back in 2006 for the site and that can be read here(see the gem below from Coach Ledesma):

DRB-You performed well with the '98 Rays, but your production slowed in '99, as your OPS dropped .121 points. What was it like on those nights when you just couldn't swing the bat. What is a player in a slump feeling in those times?

AL-Being in a slump was horrible for me. I was absolutely terrified of going o-fer. That's probably why I never hit for much power. I trained myself to put the ball in play hard somewhere. If I had another chance to do it all over again, I'm coming out of my shoes. Easy to say now. And I have no clue what OPS stands for. (On Base Percentage+Slugging Percentage OBP+SLG=OPS)

Rolando Arrojo lasted 19 starts in 2000 with the Rockies (ERA 6.04) before being shipped along with Rich Croushore and Mike Landing to Boston in exchange for Jeff Frye, Brian Rose, John Wasdin, and Jeff Taglienti.

Taglienti was a minor leaguer who never made it past AA and was out of baseball in 2002. Frye played 27 games at 2B with an OPS of .838 for the Rockies before being granted free agency. Wasdin pitched 13 innings for Colorado before being released. Rose made 12 starts for the Rockies with an ERA of 5.51 before being traded in 2001 to the Mets in exchange for Mark Leiter. Leiter was traded a week later along with Mike Dejean and Elvis Pena for Juan Acevedo, Kane Davis, and Jose Flores.

Flores was granted free agency a few months later with no time spent in the majors. Acevedo was moved in August of 2001 for Josue Espada of the Marlins organization. No details on Espada could be found. Kane Davis pitched 68 innings of relief for the Rockies in 2001 before being traded to the Mets for Corey Brittan, who lasted just one season in AAA for the Rockies and has been out of baseball since 2002. This concluded the Vinny Castilla string for the Rockies.

1999 Trade: Joe Oliver & Humberto Cotafor Jeff Sparks (Released 2000) and Jose Guillen (Released 2001)

Pre-Trade:

Journeyman Joe Oliver was signed by the Rays to a minor league contract prior to the 1999 season and began the year at AAA Durham.

Humberto Cota was a 20-year-old catcher coming off a stellar 1998 campaign with the Princeton Rays in rookie ball where he posted a slash line of .310/.399/.580 with 15 home runs.

Jeff Sparks was a 27-year-old right handed reliever in AAA with the Pirates. Through 34 appearances in 1999 he had struck out 69 and walked 23 in 49.1 IP.

Jose Guillen was the 23-year-old everyday right fielder for the Pirates in 1997 and 1998 with a slash line of .267/.301/.406.

Post-Trade:

Jeff Sparks made 23 relief appearances over two seasons with the Rays where he flashed stuff that was tough to hit with a K/9 of 12.16/9 and a Slugging % allowed of .305. However he also had control issues with a BB/9 of 8.9/9. He was released following the 2000 season. He pitched in the in dependants through 2005, but never for an affiliated team past his time with the Rays. Per wikipedia, as of 2007 he was hawking home and garden tools at Lowes, while going to firefighter school and training with Mike Marshall.

Jose Guillen would be a part-time right fielder for the Rays through 2001 when he was released, thus ending the Oliver/Cota string. During his stint he posted a slash of .255/.317/.394. He would go on to have a richly compensated career after he discovered power in 2003 with the Reds and A's to the tune of 31 home runs.

Guillen was traded in a 1-for-3 deal to Oakland during 2003. One of the 3 pieces? A young pitcher named Aaron Harang. A few years later in 2005, the Angels traded away Guillen for Maicer Izturisand Juan Rivera. For his career Guillen has OPSed .764 over 13 seasons with below average defense. With nets of Izturis and Rivera, and Harang, the Rays should have done better than releasing him in 2001. One consoling fact, there is a team that had far more costly consequences involving Guillen than the Rays missed opportunity costs. The Royals have paid him $24 million over the past two seasons for one full season's worth of . a 720 OPS.

Joe Oliver started 40 games for the Pirates in 1999 with a lowly OPS of .537. He would continue floating around the majors through 2001.

Humberto Cotawas a part-time catcher for the Pirates from 2001-07 with a slash of .233/.280/.358. Cota was granted free agency after 07, and had a very nice AAA season for the Rockies in 2008 with a line of .319/.342/.493. He became a free agent again, and played in the Mexican League in 2009 with an OPS of .850. Cota kept the trade string alive for the Pirates through 2007.

WAR Lords of the Diamond: Greatest. Rockies. Ever.

Jabberwocky — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:30:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Todd Helton features prominently in any conversation about the greatest Rockies ever.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP I SP

Now that I've discussed the greatest Rockies ever by position according to WAR, I'll summarize my data and reveal my All-Time Rockies squad. In all, 224 Rockies have been weighed, measured, and (mostly) been found wanting in this quest, yet some have clearly risen above the rest.

Of course, due to the fact that the Rockies' history is only 17 years old, there isn't exactly a deep pool of players to choose from in this study. Therefore, I will be ranking all players who produced a career WAR of over 3 wins at a position for the Rockies or was a significant player for the team.

Here was my methodology:

1. I only used stats accumulated when they played for the Rockies.

2. The categories used were: career with Rockies, best three consecutive years with Rockies (establishes average production), and best single year with the Rockies (establishes peak production).

3. If the players spent less than three years with the Rockies, their career total was used in the other metrics as well. If the player was at different positions for different years, the player would be considered for the position in which he had the most starts (or greatest impact, at my discretion) for the Rockies.

4. The players were ranked in each category. Those ranks were added and averaged out--the lowest average rank was the most valuable Rockie.

5. The data used was only for seasons that were completed (e.g. not 2009).

Remember, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fantastic Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of WAR's calculation for position players and pitchers. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

After the jump I'll outline the greatest (and worst) Rockies squad as found using my methodology, as well as the best single year performances.

The All-Time Greats

Remember, this ranking takes into account best career WAR, best consecutive 3-year WAR period, and best single WAR year to accurately capture a player's greatness and to mitigate somewhat the fact that WAR is a counting stat and is heavily influenced by longevity. Slash stats are (Career WAR / 3 Year WAR / 1 Year WAR).

Starting Lineup

C: Jeff Reed (1996-1999) (4.3 / 4.6 / 1.8)
1B: Todd Helton (1997-2008) (53.9 / 21.7 / 8.8)
2B: Eric Young (1993-1997) (9.5 / 7.3 / 3.8)
3B: Garrett Atkins (2003-2008) (11.1 / 10.8 / 6.4)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2006-2008) (6.2 / 6.2 / 5.6)
LF: Matt Holliday (2004-2008) (16.9 / 15.9 / 7.3)
CF: Juan Pierre (2000-2002) (3.0 / 3.0 / 2.4)
RF: Larry Walker (1995-2004) (44.1 / 18.3 / 9.0)

Bench

Vinny Castilla (1993-1999, 2004, 2006) (15.1 / 10.1 / 4.5)
Ellis Burks (1994-1998) (10.8 / 10 / 7.6)
Andres Galarraga (1993-1997) (11.3 / 6.3 / 3.6)
Jamey Carroll (2006-2007) (5.1 / 5.1 / 4.3)
Chris Iannetta (2006-2008) (3.2 / 3.2 / 2.7)

Batting Order

1. Eric Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Matt Holliday
6. Garrett Atkins
7. Juan Pierre
8. Jeff Reed

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1997-2001) (9.9 / 9.3 / 5.3)
SP2: Aaron Cook (2002-2008) (10.3 / 7.3 / 3.4)
SP3: Jason Jennings (2001-2006) (9.1 / 6.6 / 4.2)
SP4: Kevin Ritz (1994-1998) (6.6 / 6.5 / 3.9)
SP5: Armando Reynoso (1993-1996) (7.6 / 5.0 / 3.1)

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Steve Reed (1993-1997, 2003-2004) (9.2 / 5.6 / 3.1)
Brian Fuentes (2002-2008) (8.8 / 5.2 / 2.7)
Curtis Leskanic (1993-1999) (5.2 / 3.2 / 3.1)
Bruce Ruffin (1993-1997) (5.7 / 4.6 / 1.9)
Jerry Dipoto (1997-2000) (4.7 / 4.4 / 2.1)
Jose Jimenez (2000-2003) (4.2 / 4.2 / 2.3)
Darren Holmes (1993-1997) ( (3.8 / 3.6 / 2.3)

Analysis

The construction of this team historically tells us that in the last few years the Rockies have played several of the best position players in team history (three of them are on this squad). After 2009 is completed Chris Iannetta will supplant Jeff Reed at starting catcher while several other players shoot up the leader boards.

From a pitching standpoint, the bullpen is heavily comprised of guys that were in the 1997 bullpen (five of them!). After this year not much will change as far as relievers go, but Ubaldo Jimenez's stellar 2009 will place him in the rotation as the second-ranked starting pitcher. It should be noted that Ellis Burks would probably supplant Juan Pierre in center field.

The team that is best by my metrics is by and large the best team by Career and 3 Year WAR totals too, but there are definitely some interesting outlier seasons by others that shake up the best single year roster.

The Greatest Single Season Performances

Collected below is an unholy amalgamation of the best individual seasons by position in Rockies history. If these players had all produced at this level in the same year, they would have produced 67.2 batting WAR (20.4 off the bench), 19.2 relief WAR, and 22.1 starting pitching WAR for a total of 88.1 WAR. This team should statistically win 136.7 games out of 162 (a replacement level team would win 48.6, or 30% of its games).

Starting Lineup

C: Chris Iannetta (2008) 2.7
1B: Todd Helton (2000) 8.8
2B: Jamey Carroll (2006) 4.3
3B: Garrett Atkins (2006) 6.4
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2007) 5.6
LF: Ellis Burks (1996) 7.6
CF: Juan Pierre (2001) 2.4
RF: Larry Walker (1997) 9.0

Bench

Matt Holliday (2007) 7.3
Vinny Castilla (1998) 4.5
Kazuo Matsui (2007) 4.1
Eric Young (1996) 2.7
Jeff Reed (1998) 1.8

Batting Order

1. Jamey Carroll
2. Ellis Burks
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Garrett Atkins
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Chris Iannetta
8. Juan Pierre

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1999) 5.3
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2004) 4.7
SP3: Jason Jennings (2006) 4.2
SP4: Marvin Freeman (1994) 4.0
SP5: Kevin Ritz (1995) 3.9

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Gabe White (2000) 3.3
Steve Reed (1997) 3.1
Curtis Leskanic (1995) 3.1
Brian Fuentes (2005) 2.7
Manuel Corpas (2007) 2.4
Jose Jimenez (2000) 2.3
Darren Holmes (1995) 2.3

Analysis

Obviously I'd play Holliday in left field and shift Burks to center, improving the lineup (and overall WAR) immensely, but those were the best players by WAR at their position in one season. From this year's team, Carlos Gonzalez is close to surpassing Juan Pierre, while Ubaldo Jimenez will jump atop the starting rotation, where he will perhaps be joined by Jason Marquis (depending on how his last start turns out). I'll talk more about this next week.

Rockies fans have been privileged enough to witness in the last couple of years some of the greatest seasons ever--Smith's WAR calculations are park-adjusted, so when Coors Field changed due to the humidor's implementation so did the formula for calculating WAR. As a result, early pitchers get a large boost (and hitters a large detraction) relative to today's players because of the pitcher's hell that was early Coors Field/Mile High.

And finally...

Single Season Goats

This would be the worst single-season lineup the Rockies could put on the field (worst players starting). The sad thing is that many of them did play a large role for the Rockies. The damage: -15.9 hitting WAR (-11.2 from the starting lineup), -7.5 relief WAR, and -8.5 SP WAR for a total of -31.9 wins above replacement. This team should statistically win 16.7 games out of 162.

Starting Lineup

C: Kirt Manwaring (1997) -2.1
1B: John Vander Wal (1997) -0.7
2B: Luis A. Gonzalez (2006) -1.0
3B: Vinny Castilla (1993) -0.5 [soon to be supplanted by Garrett Atkins, 2009 (-0.9)]
SS: Neifi Perez (1998) -1.2 (and yes, he played all 162 games)
LF: Dante Bichette (1999) -2.8
CF: Choo Freeman (2004) -1.2
RF: Brad Hawpe (2008) -1.7

Bench

Cory Sullivan (2006) -1.1
Steve Finley (2007) -1.1
Jason Bates (1996) -0.9
Jeff Baker (2007) -0.7
Gary Bennett (2002) -0.9

Batting Order

1. Neifi Perez
2. Choo Freeman
3. Vinny Castilla
4. Dante Bichette
5. Brad Hawpe
6. John Vander Wal
7. Kirt Manwaring
8. Luis A. Gonzalez

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Dennis Stark (2004) -1.9
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2005) -1.9
SP3: Brian Rekar (1996) -1.6
SP4: Andy Ashby (1993) -1.6
SP5: Mike Hampton (2002) -1.5

Bullpen (in order of suckitude):

Shawn Chacon (2004) -1.7
Todd Jones (2003) -1.4
Mike Dejean (1999) -1
Darren Holmes (1994) -0.9
Jose Acevedo (2005) -0.9
Jeremy Affeldt (2006) -0.8
Javier Lopez (2004) -0.8

Analysis

This team is horrible, but some of the names on the list were just having a statistical anomaly of a bad season or were getting their first look at major league hitting/pitching. In fact, several went on to have nice careers. Several of them did not, and for good reason.

Next week, I'll look at how the 2009 Rockies performed individually and as a team from a value standpoint.

This Day Belongs to the Colorado Rockies

Poseidon's Fist — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 23:30:22 -0000

May 1 is called May Day. I move that October 1 be called "Rocktober Day."

With the win today, the Rockies are just 4-5 on October 1, but look closer. All five losses came from losing teams - all four wins came by virtue of winning teams. More importantly, three of those wins represent the only three times this franchise has clinched a playoff berth. All three clinches came on October 1 at Coors Field. Really - it's Rocktober Day.

To celebrate, let's look back at revel in the glory of the first time the Rockies played out their playoff-clinching scenario:

October 1, 1995

2007 wasn't the first time that Colorado punched their ticket for the postseason on season's final day . Don Baylor's club entered the day 14 years ago with a one game lead over the Houston Astros for the inaugural wild card spot in the National League. That one game lead was unchanged for the six final anxious days.

In clinching day, the Rockies needed an ace. Fortunately, they had Bret Saberhagen, the franchise's first big-time trade deadline acquisition.. Saberhagen was a proven big-game pitcher: in 1985, he won

Game 7 of the World Series for the Kansas City Royals as a 21-year-old, the same season he became the youngest pitcher to ever win a Cy Young.

But Rox fans certainly don't remember Saberhagen in Cy Young regard. The 31-year-old right-hander went 2-1 in nine starts with the Rockies, posting a 6.28 ERA and allowing eight home runs. His stay with the Rockies was unfortunately punctuated by the game exactly fourteen years ago.

Matt Williams and J.R. Phillips homered of Sabes in the first two innings, though sac flies by Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla kept the game close at 3-2 heading into the third. But after a single, two doubles, a Walt Weiss error and a walk, Saberhagen's day was done. Mark Thompson came on and allowed two sacrifice flies but stopped the bleeding. Heading to the bottom of the third, the Rockies were trailing 8-2 and had a 10% chance of winning the game.

The details of the Rockies' first improbable-comeback-to-clinch-a-playoff-birth can be found under the fold.

Three things were in the Rockies favor for a comeback. One: Coors Field circa 1995. Two: they were facing Joe Rosselli, who was making his fifth and final career start. Three: the bullpen (Thompson, Lance Painter, Bryan Rekar, Bruce Ruffin, Darren Holmes and Curtis Leskanic) combined to throw seven innings, allowing just one run on six hits.

Don Baylor's club got down to business quickly in the third. Mark Thompson and Joe Girardi each singled in front of Eric Young and Larry Walker home runs. The four runs pulled them within two, injecting life back into a deflated crowd. That deficit held until the fifth when doubles from Joe Girardi, Andres Galarraga and Walt Weiss in conjuction with singles from Dante Bichette and Larry Walker gave the Rox a two run lead.

Houston had a habit of shadowing the Rockies the previous five days. Their own acclaimed right hander, Doug Drabek, likewise put the Astros in a six run hole early. At roughly the same time the Rockies completed their comeback, Terry Collins' club tied their game at six in Wrigley in the fifth inning. Houston went on to win the game, but luckily, the Rockies' bullpen made sure that game was moot.

Don Baylor called upon Curtis Leskanic to close the one-run lead. In the biggest inning in franchise history to that point, Leskanic struck out J.R. Phillips and Tom Lampkin on eight pitches before allowing a single to current Rockies' first base coach Glenallen Hill. Then, with 48,069 fans standing and screaming, Leskanic induced a groundout by Jeff Reed to Andres Galarraga.

The Rockies went on to lose the NLDS against the Braves three games to one, but that game and season changed baseball in the Rocky Mountains for good. By making the playoffs in just their third season of existence, the Rockies became the fastest MLB team to reach the postseason. The Blake Street Bombers converged in full swing that year, helping to clinch a playoff berth at Coors Field in its maiden season. In addition, at the ripe age of 9, my fandom of the Rockies and baseball was officially forged that day.

...And now....you know the rest of the story.

(Photo from colorado.rockies.mlb.com)

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Shortstop)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:15:57 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Troy Tulowitzki does what he wants.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with my methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm tackling perhaps the most demanding position in the field (though catchers have a good argument too), shortstop.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database for my information; here's a glossary of the terms he uses and an explanation of how WAR is calculated.

Shortstop, according to Tom Tango's positional adjustment scale, is given a +7.5 adjustment. This is due to the fact that shortstops receive the most fielding chances, by and large, requiring excellent fielding technique, quickness, speed, and a strong, accurate arm. In other words, it is a physically demanding fielding position that his historically been manned by weak Punch and Judy hitters. Several Rockies' shortstops have fit this mold.

However, during the last twenty years bigger, stronger players like Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki have come into vogue at the shortstop position as players become more athletic. Many of the best positional prospects in the minor leagues and in Latin America began their careers at shortstop due to their superior athleticism.

On the whole, shortstop does not possess the depth of production for the Rockies that third base, it also has provided much more value to Colorado than catchers have. The list, after the jump...

Shortstops

Unlike other positional rankings, the names on this list are all familiar to most Rockies fans.

1. Troy Tulowitzki

Career WAR: 6.2 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 6.2, 2006-2008 (1st)
Top Season: 5.6, 2007 (1st)
Average Rank: 1

Tulo is clearly the best shortstop in Rockies franchise history, though it is largely on the strength of his fantastic 2007 season. The seventh pick of the 2005 draft had a Total Zone rating of 18 while providing a .291/.359/.479 (.361 wOBA) batting line with 24 HRs and 99 RBI while providing stellar leadership (as a rookie!) and helping to guide the Rockies to their first World Series.

Tulo's 2008 struggles have been well documented, though he did heat up in the second half. That's a trend that has continued in a big way in 2009 as Tulowitzki has been on fire since Hurdle was fired. In fact, Tulowitzki is well on his way to having a better hitting line this year (.378 wOBA) than he did in 2007--though his fielding numbers are less spectacular--and he currently has been the Rockies' most valuable position player (3.6 WAR so far).

Perhaps the best part of all this is that the Rockies have their shortstop under team control for the next five years if they want to, at a price that is more than reasonable ($29.25 guaranteed) given his probable production.

2a. Clint Barmes

Career WAR: 4.3 (T-2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 2.5, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 2.3, 2007 (2nd)
Average Rank: 2.33

The reason that Clint Barmes is listed as a shortstop and not a second baseman is the fact that he's played 281 games at SS and 177 at 2B--and that his skill set is more that of a typical shortstop than a second sacker.

Barmes gets the tie-breaker here over Walt Weiss due to the fact that he is still producing WAR for the Rockies (and is likely to do so for next year too if Jim Tracy's mancrush remains intact). Acquired in the tenth round of the 2000 draft, Clint is an enigma, really. His stellar (and surprising) 2005 rookie season (1.6 WAR) was marred by his subsequent failings in 2006 and 2007, when he was below replacement level--after which many Rockies fans figured that we had seen the last of Clint Barmes.

Then, out of nowhere Barmes was brought up to replace Jayson Nix and excelled with the bat (.290/.322/.468) and the glove (TZ of 7) in 2008. This 2.3 WAR season gave Barmes the momentum to secure a starting slot in 2009, and while his streaky hitting has been well documented, his slick fielding has been enough to render a league average performance this year--and that's a very good thing, as league-average players don't grow on trees.

2b. Walt Weiss

Career WAR: 4.3 (T-2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1995-1997 (1st)
Top Season: 1.8, 1995 (1st)
Average Rank: 2.33

Walt Weiss is the shortstop that the 60s forgot--a throwback shortstop that fielded the position at an average level, did the little things well, and was mediocre at best as a hitter. The Rockies' shortstop from 1994-1997 was signed as a free agent from Florida on a two year, $2.8 million deal in 1994 to fill the hole vacated by Vinny Castilla's move to 3rd base.

Weiss OPSed .639 in 1994 and produced -0.7 WAR (with a TZ of -6), but bounced back nicely with a .724 OPS and 1.8 WAR in 1995--of course the Rockies had to have the then 32 year old back, and with a nice raise (two years, $4.3 million). Weiss rewarded Colorado's questionable confidence in him with two decent years (1.5, 1.7 WAR) that were very similar to 1995 in their tenor.

The Rockies benefitted from the steadiness/veteraniness/intangibles of Weiss and got about market level production from him--a fine outcome considering his horrible first year.

4. Juan Uribe

Career WAR: 2.3 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 2.3, 2001-2003 (4th)
Top Season: 1.2, 2001 (5th)
Average Rank: 4.33

Uribe signed with the Rockies out of the Dominican Republic in 1997 as an 18 year old and was the Rockies' starting shortstop by 2001 at 22 years old after Neifi Perez was traded. He performed very well in half a season (1.2 WAR), posting a .300/.325/.524 line (.359 wOBA) in 283 PA. Unfortunately he regressed in 2002 to a replacement level player, posting a .286 OBP in 618 PA. After that, Uribe was forced into a time-share at shortstop in 2003 with journeyman Jose Hernandez (yuck), but performed well in limited duty (1.0 WAR).

Here's where Uribe's story gets interesting: the Rockies traded the 24 year-old Uribe, who in the equivalent of two full seasons had cheaply provided over 2 WAR, to the White Sox for career minor leaguer Aaron Miles. While Miles got Rookie of the Year love in 2004 (he was fourth, well behind Jason Bay) despite producing only 0.1 WAR (and 0.2 overall in his Rockies career), Uribe went bananas for the White Sox. Uribe posted a .283/.327/.506 line and a 3.7 WAR season in 2004, then he followed it up with a 2.4 WAR season in 2005. And then, just as soon as it came, Uribe's productivity vanished, as he produced 1.1 WAR in the next three seasons for Chicago. A strange case, really.

5. Neifi Perez

Career WAR: 1.1 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 2.0, 1999-2001 (5th)
Top Season: 1.5, 2000 (4th)
Average Rank: 4.67

Neifi Perez is one of the biggest scam artists in MLB history. I mean, how else can you characterize his 11 year career? He was signed out of the DR as a 19 year old and was the starter as a 24 year old. Perez played for the Rockies for parts of six seasons and posted a negative WAR figure in three of them.

Perez did win a Gold Glove in 2000 and he managed two years of decent play (1.5 and 1.3 WARs in 2000 and 2001), which tricked the Royals into trading the Rockies Jermaine Dye for him. A 27 year old, in his prime Jermaine Dye! Of course, Dan O'Dowd turned around and traded Dye to the A's that same day for Todd Belitz, Mario Encarnacion, and Jose Ortiz. What?!?!? We could have had Jermaine Dye in his prime for Neifi Perez?!? Not that I'm bitter or anything, but Dye in Coors Field would have been awesome. I'm really glad that O'Dowd has improved his trading ability as he's gotten experience.

In his 11 year career, Perez produced a total of 0.0 WAR and was paid $21 million to do it. That's one heck of an expensive replacement player.

The Rest: Freddie Benavides (0.7), Royce Clayton (0.2), Jose Hernandez (-0.3), Desi Relaford (-0.5)

Next week: Left Fielders

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Third Base)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 20:45:07 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Where does Garrett Atkins rank in Rockies franchise history?

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Previous sessions in the WAR Lords series: C I 1B I 2B

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm tackling the hot corner, third base. Once again I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database for my information; here's a glossary of the terms he uses and an explanation of WAR. Please see the catcher article for an explanation of my ranking methodology.

Third base, according to Tom Tango's positional adjustment scale, is given a +2.5 runs adjustment due to the fact that it requires a better fielder than, say, first base or right field. That is because the third baseman requires good reflexes as he is usually the closest fielder to the batter. The third base position requires a strong arm, as the third baseman often makes long throws to first base, but also a quick release, as they sometimes must throw quickly to second in time to start a double play. The third baseman must also range well to get to fly balls in both fair and foul territory.

However, the hot corner is still primarily a position that is geared traditionally towards offensive production because third base does not require the speed of an outfield or middle infield position (see Atkins, Garrett), so teams stick their big bats at the hot corner. In the new Sabermetric Age (oh yeah, it's coming) I think that you'll see third base become a much more defensive-oriented position again, as it was in the early days of baseball.

Most of the Rockies' third basemen have fit the mold of the slow slugger, though Ian Stewart's slick defense is an example of the position's evolution. The quantity of players measured is not high (7), but their quality is good: all of the top five posted at least one season above league-average WAR (2.0) for the Rockies. You will be at the least mildly surprised by the results.

Without further ado, the top Colorado denizens of the hot corner...after the jump.

Third Basemen

And the most valuable third baseman in Rockies history, according to my methodology...is Purple Row punching bag Garrett Atkins! Sure, Vinny Castilla has the biggest career WAR for the Rockies, but he also played the most games. Atkins out produced Castilla in both the three-year and one-year metrics to claim the WAR Lords title for third base. Here are the results:

1. Garrett Atkins

Career WAR: 11.1 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 10.8, 2005-2007 (1st)
Top Season: 6.4, 2006 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.33

Garrett's poor performance thus far in 2009 does not affect his status on this list, but it does tarnish his legacy as a Colorado Rockie. The 2000 5th round pick out of UCLA first reached the majors in 2003 and became the full-time starter in 2005, a year in which he finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year standings and produced 1.5 WAR. However, his best season (by far the greatest by a Rockies third baseman) was 2006, in which Atkins produced 6.4 WAR. Atkins not only hit .329 with 29 HRs and 120 RBI, but he also had a split line of .329/.409/.556/.410 (BA, OBP, SLG, wOBA). In addition, Atkins provided positive value fielding (Total Zone of 11).

Atkins was 26 and one of the best young players in the game--and then he regressed, steadily and quickly. He went from .410 wOBA in 2006 to .368 to .337 down to .293 so far this year--and his pay has increased dramatically as his hitting skills (namely, his bat speed) have decreased. Atkins is likely to be non-tendered by Colorado after this year, but 2006 (and 2007) will get him another chance somewhere.

2. Vinny Castilla

Career WAR: 15.1 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 10.1, 1996-1998 (2nd)
Top Season: 4.5, 1998 (2nd)
Average Rank: 1.67

A charter member of the Blake Street Bombers, Castilla is probably the most loved third baseman in Rockies history. Castilla spent parts of nine years with the Rockies, playing in two All-Star games, winning three Silver Sluggers, and belting over 30 home runs five years in a row. Vinny was picked 40th by the Rockies in the 1992 expansion draft as a shortstop (indeed, he was the Rockies' main shortstop in 1993) and was moved over to third in 1995 to replace Charlie Hayes' leaving in free agency, where he remained until 2000. His 1998 season was his greatest, as he produced well in the traditional (.319 BA, 46 HRs, 144 RBI), advanced (.362 OBP, .589 SLG) and sabermetric (.396 wOBA) stats.

The fan favorite regressed in 1999 and was traded after the season for Rolando Arrojo and Aaron Ledesma, after which he spent four relatively punchless years away from Coors Field. He returned to Colorado in 2004 as a free agent, and in familiar surroundings produced 35 HR, 131 RBI, and 3.4 WAR for the Rockies (.271/.332/.535/.362). After the 2004 season, Castilla played for the Nationals and Padres, but returned in late 2006 to retire as a Rockie, where he now works in the front office.

3. Jeff Cirillo

Career WAR: 8.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 8.1, 2000-2001 (3rd)
Top Season: 4.1, 2001 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Cirillo was acquired as part of a three team trade before the 2000 season in which the Rockies sent away Jamey Wright, Henry Blanco, and Justin Miller. The 30 year-old Cirillo was expected to pick up where Castilla left off, and in his two seasons Cirillo proved to be up to the task, producing WARs of 4 and 4.1 (part of a six-year run of at least 4 WAR in each year, justifying his $8.45 million in total compensation.

Cirillo made the 2000 All-Star game, a year in which he batted .326/.392/.477/.376--and then he was just as good in 2001, in large part due to his phenomenal fielding (TZ of 21) and similar batting stats. He didn't stop giving the Rockies value with his 2001 season--he was traded to the Mariners after the season for a package that included Brian Fuentes. Cirillo then proceeded to produce at a below league-average level for the rest of his career.

4. Charlie Hayes

Career WAR: 3.7 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.7, 1993-1994 (4th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1993 (4th)
Average Rank: 4

The Rockies' Inaugural third baseman, Hayes was selected by the Rockies as the 3rd pick in the 1992 expansion draft. The then 27-year old Hayes responded by producing a career year in the very-hitter friendly environment that he was thrust into--a year that he never again came close to replicating. In 1993, Hayes produced 3.1 WAR, posting a line of .305/.355/.522/.378 with above average fielding (TZ of 3). After coming down to earth in 1994 (0.6 WAR), the Rockies let Hayes go in free agency, making way for Castilla.

5. Chris Stynes

Career WAR: 2.3 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 2.3, 2003 (5th)
Top Season: 2.3, 2003 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

Whawhawhaaat?? Chris Stynes? Yep. In 2003 (just after the implementation of the humidor), the 30-year old Stynes, who had two good years in Cincinnati among a few awful ones as a part-timer for three other teams, was signed as a stopgap by the Rockies for $750k after the glorious Todd Zeile era. And when Stynes was given a career high in PA (502), he produced as about a league-average third baseman for the Rockies--posting a league-average wOBA (.329). In addition, he provided excellent defense at the hot corner (TZ of 12) The Rockies let him walk in free agency (bringing back Castilla) and the next year he was out of baseball. Go figure.

6. Ian Stewart

Career WAR: 1.3 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 1.3, 2007-2008 (6th)
Top Season: 1.1, 2008 (6th)
Average Rank: 6

Give it time--the Rockies' 1st round pick in 2003 will hopefully eclipse at the least Chris Stynes on this list. If Stewart ever puts it together at the plate, he'll shoot up this list.

7. Todd Zeile

Career WAR: 0.7 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 0.7, 2007-2008 (7th)
Top Season: 0.7, 2008 (7th)
Average Rank: 7

Oh, Todd Zeile, the Rockies' erstwhile 2002 starter. He was acquired in a three team trade in which the Rockies gave up Ross Gload, Alex Ochoa, and Craig House--in other words, nobody. He wasn't bad with the bat (.273/.353/.425/.341) but he wasn't great either, and his fielding was below average (-5 TZ). The problem was that the Rockies were paying Zeile almost $7 million to be below average, and the club let him go after his existing contract expired.

Next week: Shortstops

Rockies Retro: Colorado's All-Star History

theoldgrizzlybear — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:53:16 -0000

Larry Walker, everybody. (via i.a.cnn.net)

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The Colorado Rockies have been represented very well in All-Star Games during their short history, sending 16 different players and a manager to the midsummer classic. Here's a rundown of each game (as well as some Home Run Derbies) and how it related to the Rockies:

1993: Andres Galarraga

As the first All-Star in franchise history, the Big Cat will forever be a part of Rockies' lore. However, he didn't really do anything special in this game, going 0-for-1 (pop out to SS).

1994: Dante Bichette

Bichette was Colorado's first Home Run Derby participant, as he was eliminated in the first round after hitting three home runs - finishing in a tie for fifth overall (with Houston's Jeff Bagwell). In the actual game, Dante only got one AB (as a pinch hitter) but made the most of it, as he led off the fifth inning with a single to left off of Mike Mussina.

1995: Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla

By virtue of an injury to San Francisco's Matt Williams, Vinny Castilla became the first Rockie to ever start an All-Star Game, as the third baseman was written into the eighth slot in the NL's batting order. It wasn't a great day for Colorado's stars; Castilla went 0-for-2 with a strikeout and Bichette K'd in his only at-bat.

1996: Dante Bichette, Ellis Burks, Eric Young

'96 marked the first season that the Rockies sent three players to the midsummer classic. Burks participated in the Home Run Derby, but hit just one home run - a 405' tater - and was eliminated in the first round. As for the game, Bichette (who started the game in LF) and Burks each had an extra base hit, and Bichette scored a run. EY was 0-for-1 after entering the game as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. At the time, this was probably the best All-Star game in terms of performance by Rockies players. This was also the last time the National League won an All-Star Game.

See what happened during the wild 1997 All-Star festivities, and much more, after the jump.

1997: Andres Galarraga, Larry Walker

The Big Cat made it back to the ASG after a three-year hiatus, but it was Larry Walker who best represented the club at this year's event. Walker participated in the HR Derby and put on a clinic, homering nine times in each of the contest's first two rounds. However, he ran out of gas at the end and ended up finishing as the runner-up to Tino Martinez, despite hitting three more homers overall. The following night, Walker started and went 0-for-1 with a walk, but had a memorable at-bat against Randy Johnson in which he turned his helmet backwards and batted from the right side of the plate after the Big Unit threw a fastball over his head. Galarraga struck out in his only AB.

1998: Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Larry Walker

At Coors Field in Denver, Vinny Castilla finished third in the HR Derby, hitting 12 homers through two rounds. For the fourth straight ASG, the Rockies had a player in the starting lineup. Walker was that man in '98, in front of 51,267 mostly Rockies fans. Walker was 0-for-1 with a walk and a run scored, while Bichette and Castilla combined to go 0-for-4 with a K.

1999: Larry Walker

This was the first year the Rox only had one player in the game since 1994. Walker hit just two homers in the Derby and was out in the first round. He started in LF the next night and went 0-for-2 and was one of the five consecutive NL batters who fell victim to Pedro Martinez via the punch out to start the game.

2000: Jeff Cirillo, Jeffery Hammonds, Todd Helton

The new-look Rockies sent three guys to the ASG who had never been there before. They didn't do much, however, as they combined to go 0-for-4 in reserve duty.

2001: Mike Hampton, Todd Helton, Larry Walker

Hampton earned the distinction of being the first Rockies pitcher ever to be named an All-Star. Helton participated in the Derby and hit just two homers - the longest of which was a 425' shot. Both Helton and Walker started in the ASG, but combined to go 0-for-4 with a K. Hampton pitched an inning and gave up a hit and an unearned run.

2002: Todd Helton

Helton was the only Rockies player to make it in '02, but he was voted in as a starter and represented the club well in the game. He hit an RBI single off of Roy Halladay in the third inning that scored Jimmy Rollins, and came around to score a run of his own when Barry Bonds homered in the next at-bat.

2003: Shawn Chacon, Todd Helton, Preston Wilson

Helton was voted in as a starter for the third consecutive season, and responded by hitting a two-run homer in the fifth inning off of Shigetoshi Hasegawa that put the NL up 2-1. Wilson tacked on a single for the NL in two AB's, as well. Chacon was a DNP due to an injury.

2004: Todd Helton

Helton was named to the team for the fifth straight time, but did not play. He has not made it to an All-Star Game since.

2005: Brian Fuentes

In '05, the Rox were one of those dreadful teams whose only All-Star is a relief pitcher. On top of that, Fuentes did not even pitch in the game, which has to be one of the only occasions in recent memory that a team went two straight ASG's without seeing any of its players appear in the game.

2006: Brian Fuentes, Matt Holliday

Holliday went 0-for-3 in his first ASG appearance, but Fuentes represented the Rox well as he pitched a scoreless inning and struck out Grady Sizemore.

2007: Brian Fuentes, Matt Holliday

Holliday fared well in the Home Run Derby, hitting 5 bombs in the first round and 8 in the second, and finished in a tie for third overall (with Albert Pujols) with 13 total homers - one of which traveled 475'. He proceeded to go 0-for-2 with a strike out in the game. Fuentes did not play due to injury.

2008: Aaron Cook, Matt Holliday, Clint Hurdle (manager)

Holliday got the NL on the board with a fifth inning home run off of Ervin Santana. He finished 1-for-3. Meanwhile, Aaron Cook threw THREE innings - an ASG rarity these days - of shutout ball despite having A LOT of traffic on the base paths (some the fault of his own - 4 hits and 3 walks, and some the fault of Dan Uggla, who committed 3 errors). Although the NL lost, the members of the Rockies organization fared extremely well in this contest.

Ryan Zimmerman Named To The 2009 NL All-Star Roster!!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!!

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:32:17 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

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(ed. note - "A few weeks ago, I conducted an email interview with the Nationals' All-Star third baseman before he'd been named to the 2009 NL All-Star Roster. In light of this morning's announcement, I figured it was worth another read. Congratulations to Mr. Zimmerman on his first All-Star selection. Rumor has it he might not be the only one representing DC's Nationals.")...

Q: How much importance do you place on awards like the Gold Glove or an All-Star selection (or a hitting streak!) that recognize personal achievements as opposed to team success?

Ryan Zimmerman:

I don’t ever focus or place importance on personal achievements on the baseball field. I play this great game of baseball to win, and to have my teammates and fans respect me for playing as hard as I possibly can day in and day out, 162 games (hopefully more) a season. Sure, the hitting streak, and accomplishments like a Gold Glove or All-Star appearance are tremendous honors and ones I would cherish. They’re also indicators that my teammates have been productive and done well also. In the end, the second a player focuses or concerns himself with individual honors, is the second he loses his competitive edge in this game and won’t be respected inside the clubhouse, really the only place where it matters you’re respected. If the personal accolades come with team success, then I will enjoy them with my teammates and be ready for the next obstacle.

(ed. note - "That's right. Through the magic of the SB Nation, I was given an opportunity to interview the Washington Nationals' Face Of The Franchise™, the Nationals' 1st 1st Round Pick, DC's favorite third baseman, and the man who'll man the hot corner in the nation's capital for at least the next five years and hopefully for as long as he chooses to continue playing, "this great game" as he called it in the response above, Ryan Zimmerma...THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! The rest of my email interview with Ryan Zimmerman can be found after the jump...")

(continued)...

Q: Knowing your personal relationship/friendly rivalry with David Wright, and knowing how good he is, would it mean more to you if you were able to beat him out for either the Gold Glove or the starting spot at third in the All-Star Game?

Ryan Zimmerman:

DWright is a great guy and one of my closest friends in this game. We’re from the same area, have played together and against each other for years, and respect what each of us does on a baseball field. He has had great success early in his career, and for that I congratulate him wholeheartedly. I really enjoy watching him play (when it’s not against us) and hopefully his team and ours can battle for the NL East crown year in and year out.

Q: I'm sure you've seen MASN's Defining Moments commercials, part of the reason I've been trying to rally support for your All-Star selection is that I think it would be a Defining Moment for the franchise to have a player elected to the All-Star Game, rather than named to the roster, do you think it would have any significance for the franchise?

Ryan Zimmerman:

If I were to be selected to the All-Star game (either voted or chosen) it would be a huge honor. There’s so

many great players in the Major Leagues that being recognized in that light would be awesome. But like I said earlier, I play this game for the guy on my left and the one on my right, and individual success is always trumped by team success. I’d trade any personal achievement for a playoff berth and/or World Series ring.

Q: You got to play alongside an All-Star third baseman, one of my personal favorites, and one of the better defensive third baseman in recent history in your first year in the majors, is there anything you learned from Vinny Castilla that sticks with you to this day?

Ryan Zimmerman:

Vinny was a great player, both offensively and defensively – and one who left his mark on this game, not only for the teams he suited up for, but also his country (Mexico). He will go down as one of the most solid all-around 3B of all-time. I’ll never forget watching him when he was part of the Blake Street Bombers in the mid-90’s. He was a good guy who was always willing to help out the younger players and next wave of big leaguers.

Q: One Non-All-Star Game question if you don't mind...Do you and the other players on the team get as excited as the fans of the team about adding a #1 overall pick, especially someone as highly regarded as Stephen Strasburg, to the roster? As the Nationals' 1st Draft pick, (4th overall in '05), is there any advice you would offer Strasburg as he starts his career (assuming he signs) in DC?

Ryan Zimmerman:

Strasburg is clearly a very talented pitcher, and one that we hope will pitch with the Nationals for a long, long time. With that said, it’s tough to put such huge pressure/expectations on a young man who has never pitched in professional baseball. However, we believe he has the skill and makeup to be a star for us. We’re all excited to follow his progress and hopefully help our club out sooner rather than later. I will give him a hard time for his only loss coming against my alma mater, the University of Virginia, in the Regionals in Irvine. I’m not going to let him down for that one. Haha.

(ed. note - "Thanks, Ryan. And thank you to everyone behind the scenes who made this happen. You know who you are and you have to know how much it's appreciated. I asked those who put this together if I could place an ad at the end here for Ryan Zimmerman's zIMS Foundation to thank Ryan for agreeing to do this, and they said go ahead and do so if i'd like to, so I will, and I hope anyone who's able to can contribute to the cause, below is the mission statement from the Foundation's official site."):

"The ZiMS Foundation, started by Washington Nationals' Third Baseman Ryan Zimmerman, is dedicated to the treatment and ultimate cure of Multiple Sclorosis by funding comprehensive support and educational programs."

Rockies 10, Cardinals 1: Rox Cook up a mighty Stew of Redbirds again

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:06:01 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Ian Stewart has been watching a lot of his flyballs land in the outfield seats lately.

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Box Score

It's officially good to be a Rockies fan again. At least for now. Colorado bludgeoned St. Louis for the second straight day Saturday night, easily taking the W with a 10-1 win over Todd Wellemeyer (5-6, 5.32).

The story coming in was on Carlos Gonzalez first start in a Rockies uniform. He went 0-4 with a FO, GO (would have been an IF 1B if not for Albert Pujols), and 2 K's. Instead, another talented young lefty masher took center stage.

When Troy Tulowitzki got hurt June 2, Jim Tracy took it as an opportunity to put Ian Stewart in the lineup. Despite Tulowitzki being cleared to play, Tracy went with the hot-hitting Stewart again, and it paid off in a big way. Stewart smacked a 3-run 2-out HR in the 4th to give Colorado a commanding lead in a game that Aaron Cook's sinker was working. In his next at-bat, he roped a 2-run 2-out HR following a Brad Hawpe double. Both home runs came on breaking pitches, and the second was a display of pure strength by deposited the soft toss deep in the left-center field seats.

He also doubled down the left field line and turned a similar batted ball into an out with a highlight reel backhand and jump throw. After his ninth inning double, he scored from third base on a grounder to third when the throw bounced off his helmet. Practically everything the 2003 1st round pick did tonight was golden. I kid you not - the commentator during SportsCenter said called Stew "the best player in the world." The label is obviously in jest, but it will be tough for any player to top his game tonight.

In the four games since Tulowitzki's injury, Stewart has gone 10-for-17 with 4 HR and 12 RBIs in raising his batting average 57 points from .177 to .231.

Clint Barmes also hit a 3-run HR in the ninth off Blake Hawksworth (who was making his MLB debut) to give the Rox the winning 9-run margin.

23 - 32

Pace: 68-94

Pyth W-L: 27-28

Last Year: 20-35

Nearly lost in the offensive explosion was the whale of a ballgame pitched by Aaron Cook (4-3, 4.50), who went eight innings and allowed just four hits and a walk. The only run he allowed was a solo home run by Rick Ankiel that Carlos Gonzalez might have caught if not for a fan's grubby fingers. He faced 28 batters, got 15 ground balls and only allowed 5 batted balls to leave the ground. He has now gotten his ERA to a season low 4.50 and has allowed one or less runs in 4 of his last 7 starts.

Some juicy notes on the game:

The win gave Colorado its first three game win streak since Jason Marquis pitched the Rockies to a 3-1 record in the Home Opener. Ironically, Saturday's attendance was the largest to see a Rockies game since that home opener April 10.
The Rox scored 10+ runs for the third straight game. However, they failed to reach 10 hits in the last two games. Coming into the series, the Cardinals' staff had the best ERA in MLB. It's all Coors Field! Or not.
The last time the Rockies scored 10+ runs in three straight games was ironically also on the road, at Petco Park, April 7-9, 2006.
Eight of the 10 runs scored with two out.
Albert Pujols had his MLB record tying streak of reaching base 2+ times in a game broken Friday night. He did not reach base Saturday at all.
The Rockies hit three home runs for the second straight game. Two of them were three-run home runs. Colorado had zero 3-run HR the first two months of the season.
Colorado has outscored their opponents 31-8 in the last three days, giving them a perfectly even run differential on the season.
We are now on pace for 192 team HR. That's the most since 2004, the year Todd Helton, Vinny Castilla and Jeromy Burnitz combined for 104.
Ian Stewart is on pace to hit 34 HR and get 98 RBI despite not reaching 400 ABs. With a .221 average.

WPA Heroes:
Aaron Cook (.254) - 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 K, 1 BB; 0-for-3, 1 K
Ian Stewart (.280) - 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2B, 5 RBI, 3 R
Seth Smith (.029) - 2-for-4, BB, 2 R

WPA Zeroes:
Brad Hawpe (-.052) - 1-for-4, 2B, 2 R
Edwin Bellorin (-.033), 1-for-4

You know it was a good game when your worst two players by WPA each got a hit and one scored twice.

Quiet Star:
Matt Daley made his first appearance since being activated off of the disabled list in the ninth inning. As he toed the rubber, directly in front of him manning the third base was umpire Tim Welke, the same ump that sent Daley to the DL his last time on the field by throwing the bat under his foot. Daley retired all three men he faced on just eight pitches.

Rowbot Roll Call

biondino, WolfMarauder, Silverblood, Rockie4Ever, mkorpal, befizzle, Poseidon's Fist, djmbluemoon, Narcoleptico, OrangeTorpedo, Teekalong, ALrockies, oo_nrb, nodakroxfan, BroJB, walkoff59, coolopotamous, and RockiesMagicNumber witnessed the extraordinary game.

WolfMarauder was the only centurion again, but barely this time.

Comment of the night:

OH MY GOD THIS IS FREAKING FREAKING AWESOME

by Rockie4Ever on Jun 6, 2009 7:32 PM MDT

Revisiting the Myth of the RBI Guy, Part One

devil_fingers — Mon, 18 May 2009 17:11:16 -0000

If that's one of my worst mistakes -- to sign somebody who has 20 home runs and 97 RBIs -- I'll take it.

-Royals' General Manager Dayton Moore, on Jose Guillen's 2008 performance.

Everyone knows that RBI are, if not worthless, way down the list of ways to judge a players offensive performance, right? There's tons of stuff written on it, but here is a really good, non-technical piece written by America's Greatest Living Sportswriter, Joe Posnanski.

Nonetheless, it is hard not to be impressed by RBI numbers, to see a player as an "RBI man" who produces runs. To get that man runs across the plate, he has to have some skills, right? Sure, he's getting more opportunities because he's in the middle of the order, but a truly terrible hitter wouldn't have driven in all those runs, right? Let's take a look-see.

In Baseball Prospectus' Baseball Between the Numbers, Jonah Keri takes an illuminating angle on this issue. He takes all the individual 100 RBI seasons since 1972 (I'm not sure why -- perhaps the introduction of the designated hitter rule?) and divides the RBI by the player's VORP (BP's Value Over Replacement Player stat) for that season. The higher a number of RBI/VORP a player has, the more overrated his value is by his RBI. The results are predictable -- famous "clutch hitter" Joe Carter having the highest number of most overrated 100 RBI seasons since 1972. It's a good piece and approach to the "RBI issue."

However, there are significant problems with VORP, both in its approach to positional adjustments and its incorrect weighting of walks, home runs, and doubles. Keri's approach is straightforward and illuminating, but can be improved by using a better measure of offensive value.

What would that measure be? Readers of this space arely likely anticipating wOBA as my answer, while while it's on the right track, we're looking for a counting stat -- runs created above some baseline. Fortuneatley, just like there's a relationship between batting average and total hits using at-bats, there's a relationship between wOBA and runs created above average (wOBA is basically linear weights expressed as a rate stat). At FanGraphs, they call this "wRAA, here," I call it BRAA since I'm not sure if my results are exactly the same, and I use different park adjustments. The "1.15" is there because it is what forces wOBA onto an OBP scale, and to convert to runs above average, that needes to be undone (the custom lineare weights script used here and at FanGraphs uses a customized "wOBAScale" for each season).

Thanks to previous work by Tom Tango, Colin Wyers, and terpsfans' park factors , I was able to calculate BRAA for all seasons back to 1955 (Thanks, guys!).

To get my lists of "most overrated" and "most underrated" seasons by RBI, I simply followed Keri's lead and divided the players RBI by his BRAA (Keri used VORP, of course). The more RBI per BRAA a player has, the more his RBI overstate his offensive contribution. This is a "junk stat," of course, but while there might be more sophisticated ways of doing it, I like it for its straightforward simplicity. The problem, of course, is that many players on the list are below average, which means I'll end up with a negative number for some bad players with lots of RBIs -- we want a positive number for them. So I had to add something proportionally do each player so that they would all end up "positive." I could have picked any number to add, but I decided instead to go with pseudo-"replacement level" (pseudo because there are no replacement level hitters or fielders, only replacement level players) by adding in 22.5 runs for every 700 PAs each player had that season. This also parallels Keri's piece, which works not from average, but from replacement level (defined differently, of course, and with positional adjustments with which I disagree). Still, there was one particularly "great" season that came up negative -- Keri ran into this problem with RBI/VORP as well, so I adopted his solution -- to simply add 10 to the number I got. So, the final version of the junk stat is RBI/(BRAA+(PA*(22.5/700))+10) = RBI per BRAR (Batting Runs Above "Replacement").

Here are the results. There are separate sheets for the Most Overrated RBI Guys 1973-, Most Underrated, and 2008's 90+ RBI Guys sorted by Overrated to Underrated. The columns are mostly obvious: wOBA is each players' unadjusted wOBA for that season using the custom weights, BRAA is his park-adjusted linear weights runs created above what a league-average hitter would have created in the same number of plate apperaances, and RBIperBRAR is RBIs per BRAA scaled as discussed in the previous paragraph. Again, the higher the RBIperBRAR number is, the more a players RBI numbers (generally) overstate his offensive ability.

There is much to "admire" here, particularly some wonderful performances from the Most Overrated list. Let's extract a few for discussion:

Player	Year	Team	PA	wOBA	BRAA	RBI	RBI/BRAR
Tony Batista	2003	BAL	670	.283	-22.6	99	11.07
Joe Carter	1997	TOR	668	.297	-18.8	102	8.05
Pedro Feliz	2006	SFN	643	.299	-17.9	98	7.68
Tony Batista	2004	MON	646	.305	-15.0	110	6.98
Vinny Castilla	1999	COL	674	.344	-14.0	102	5.77
Joe Carter	1990	SDN	697	.299	-11.5	115	5.50
Jeff Francoeur	2006	ATL	686	.308	-12.4	103	5.24
Sammy Sosa	1997	CHN	694	.329	-3.8	119	4.17
Sammy Sosa	2007	TEX	454	.332	-1.5	92	3.98
Paul O'Neill	2000	NYA	628	.329	-4.1	100	3.83
Tino Martinez	2000	NYA	632	.325	-6.5	91	3.82

The first few are simply the "top"seasons, then I picked some that looked interesting. Starting at the bottom: I probably don't hate Paul O'Neill enough to be a real non-Yankees fan, but man, do he and Tino's ever illustrate how much batting order effects RBI numbers: both were clearly below average, but O'Neill hit right behind Derek Jeter (.416 OBP in 2000) and Martinez behind Bernie Williams (.391 OBP).

I included Sammy Sosa on this chart not because I want to pick on him or anything, but I just found it interesting that he had two seasons this high up on the Overrated chart, and they pretty well bookend his incredible run from 1998-. Jeff Francoeur probably doesn't care about being on the list, since, unlike RBI (and OBP), they don't put RBI per BRAR or wOBA on the scoreboard. Still, it's sort of sad (in a "ha-ha" way) to think that Frenchy's got a long way to go to even return to his .308 wOBA of 2006.

Vinny Castilla, well, there's a shocker. There's no need to point out that Pedro Feliz is a bad hitter. In fact, he's about an average player once you factor in his excellent defense. I just thought it was curious that so many third basemen were at the top of this list.

Finally, we come to one classic example and my persoinal favorite.

The "classic" overrated RBI guy is Joe Carter. Bill James tackled how overrated Carter was due to his reptuation for "clutch-ness" in the New Historical Baseball Abstract, and his take on it is in many ways unsurpassed. Still, even James may have overrated Carter as a player, as he doesn't even make Rally's Top 300 Position Players since 1955 by WAR list. Not that he didn't have some good seasons... but we aren't dealing with those. Here's a guy who drove in 102 runs hitting in the middle for the order for Toronto in 1997 with a .297 wOBA. You don't like wOBA? You think a .284 OBP might be okay? How about this -- he drove in 102 runs in 1997 and 115 in 1990 in while not even slugging .400 either season.

While Carter makes the point about the "value" of a "guy who just knows how to drive in runs" the best because of his fame, my personal favorite is the guy I had to do the +10 thing to get on the list: Tony Batista. I loved the goofy batting stance, the willful all-or nothing approach, the nickname given to him by Batgirl. It is a fitting symbol of MLBl's treatment of Montreal's baseball fans* that in the Expos' last season there, their cleanup hitter had a .305 wOBA with a .241/.272/.455. I guess it was better than fellow Blue Jay alumn Joe Carter's 1997.

* And don't give me that "Montreal just wasn't into baseball" nonsense. They had decent attendence through 1994 and were in first when the strike happened. Ater that, Jeffrey Loria and Bud Selig happened.

But Batista's 2004 greatness was nothing compared to what he had already achieved for the Orioles in 2003. This is the season for which I did the +10 modification, and the reason I lowered the bar from 100 to 90 RBI: 99 RBI in 670 PA, .283 wOBA for -22.6 bRAA and a .235/.270/.393 line. Let's put that .283 wOBA in perspective: Adam Everett has a career wOBA of .290. If that isn't enough to ween a person of RBIs as a measure of offensive value, I don't know what is. Or maybe the Tigers should be hitting Everett cleanup this season...

Perhaps you still think that some players just have a "knack" for situational hitting, i.e., with runners in base or in scoring position, such that a high RBI/bRAA ration speaks in favor of their hitting abilities. I guess you'll have serious issues with the guys on the mmost underrated by RBI list, then. Look who appears 6 times in the top 10. 'Nuff said.

In conclusion, let's look at 2008's players with more than 90 RBI. Look at the bottom, first. Grady Sizemore, Lance Berkman... Albert Pujols. OK, obviously, Sizemore hits leadoff, and Berkman and Pujols had good years even for them, so they might be expected to "out-wOBA" their RBI numbers. Still, any ranking that has them at the bottom has to make you think that being at the bottom is a good thing, right?

And who is that the top? The worst mistake Dayton Moore will take: Jose Guillen.

Still not convinced? I'll revisit this next week using a more contextual approach to situational hitting to see if there's anything there.

Thanks to Sky Kalkman for his stylistic and methodological suggestions on this piece, and to terpsfan for his park factors and instructions on how to implement them. Neither of them, of course, is responsible for my screw-ups.

Update, 5/18/2009, 11:40 p.m. EST: At the Book Blog, Tom Tango suggests that it would be better to just use RBI per absolute runs created rather than above average/replacement. I had considered doing so when working on this piece originally, but decided not to for various reasons.

However, Tango’s point is a good one, so I’ve quickly caculated Batting Runs Created. It’s the same formula as above average, but adds in the league average R/PA for each plate appearance:

(((wOBA-lgWOBA)/wOBAScale)/PA)+(lgR/PAPA)

The spreadsheet has been modified accordingly. The old ones are still there and are useful, I think, in that they reflect a similar methdology to that of the Jonah Keri piece that inspired this post. Those that are sorted by RBI/BRC are labeled with "BRC." I didn’t bother to park adjust those numbers, which causes some anomalies, but what I’m going for are the basic groups of players who are "better" or "worse" than their RBI numbers indicate. The players are basically the same. Batista's 2003 is the most RBI-riffic season on both lists. Joe Carter holds the #2 spot in BRC version, but this time its his 1990 season. For 2008, Jose Guillen has "dropped" to the fourth spot and is replaced by... wait for it... Mike Jacobs.

Thanks to Tom Tango and terpsfan for their suggestions, and there will be more on this topic next week (and hopefully in the comments this week!).