SB Nation - Yusmeiro Petit

This week in AZ baseball: Webb returns, the 2010 roster takes shape, and an AFL Gameday Thread

Jim McLennan — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:30:28 -0000

Didn't bother doing one of these last weekend, as there really wasn't enough to justify it. Not the case at all today, with a lot of contract news following the end of the World Series, and as a result we can see the first signs of the roster for next season taking place. Or, at least, cross some names off the potential candidates' list, anyway. Today is also the Arizona Fall League All-Star game out in Surprise, with first pitch at 6:15 pm. It's going to be televised, both on the MLB Network and free at mlb.com, so this post will also be the Gameday Thread for that event.

Details of that, analysis of the roster moves, an update on the latest numbers by Diamondbacks in winter ball and more, after the jump.

While no surprise, the big news is, of course, that Brandon Webb will be pitching for the Diamondbacks in 2010, after the team exercised their option. Everyone concerned seemed upbeat at the news, our ace saying, "I was hoping that they would. I was just waiting for the phone call. It was up in the air for a while and rightfully so, it was a big question mark for a while, but I've bounced back really well and am feeling good and I'm happy I'll be back next year." His agent - and one-time SnakePit poster! - Jonathan Maurer added, "We've said from Day 1 that Brandon is very happy with the Diamondbacks and our preference was to remain in Arizona. We would love to work out something long term, but we will just take this year and see how it plays out." Webb concurs: "Hopefully it goes well for both of us and we can maybe start some talks, if everything goes well, toward the end of next year."

Three months after the surgery in early August, Webb will be doing a little gentle soft-toss next week to end his season, before then closing things down and eventually beginning his usual build-up towards spring training and, all going well, Opening Day. He sounded fairly confident he'll be the same pitcher he was: "Even when I was throwing and I was still having some pain, the life on the ball was still there. I can't be too sure, but I'm pretty sure I'll always probably have that sinking action, because that's just how my arm action is, it allows the ball to do that." I certainly hope so: Webb without his sinker...why, that'd be like Lincecum without a pipe in his mouth.

Brandon may be coming back, but there are a lot of Diamondbacks who apparently won't be - though again, none of the news on that front was massively unexpected. On the pitching front, Doug Davis and Scott Schoeneweis filed for free-agency, while Daniel Cabrera declined his assignment to Reno and became a free agent too. Yusmeiro Petit was taken from Arizona on waivers by the Mariners - likely a better location for the fly-ball prone Petit Unit., and our colleague on Lookout Landing are quite excited. The trio accounted for almost one-third of our starts last season (34 for Davis, 17 for Petit, one for Cabrera), and means the competition for the fifth spot next year is currently down to Billy Buckner, Bryan Augenstein and Kevin Mulvey, with the first-named the favorite at this point. Doug Slaten was also picked up off waivers, by Washington.

On the position player front, we say a poignant farewell to Chad Tracy, whose 2010 option was bought out by the Diamondbacks. Only two players - Luis Gonzales and Steve Finley - have played more games in an Arizona jersey than Chad, who appeared 704 times for Arizona over six seasons. His career line with the team was decent, at .280/.339/.453, for a .792 OPS, but since returning from knee surgery, his output has slumped. Chad's numbers against left-handed pitching were particularly poor, helping to make the decision to decline his $7m option relatively easy. Also possibly on the way out are Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen, moves intended to relieve the impending crush in the 2010 outfield.

Good article in the Republic today on how the economic downturn is hitting all valley sports teams, not just the Diamondbacks. "Every professional sports team in metro Phoenix, along with Arizona State University's football team and the annual Fiesta Bowl, has had trouble selling tickets this year... Teams have been forced to try promotions once considered unthinkable as the drop in attendance cuts deeper into revenue and costs jobs.." Said Jerry Colangelo: "I have been here over 40 years, and this is the worst it has ever been." Other points of interest with regard to the local franchises:

The Suns streak of home sellouts ended this month and the team just laid off about 10% of employees.
The Coyotes have the lowest average crowd in the NHL, attracting just 5,855 for Monday's game. [There's also an article on whether Phoenix might be better served by minor-league hockey]
The NFC champion Cardinals have needed an extension for all but one of their home games, to avoid them being blacked out on TV.

Time for an update on our winter league ball-players, starting with Conor Jackson in the Dominican. If he's still not showing much power - one home-run in fourteen games - he's still getting on base with impressive frequency: he has an OBP of .523, thanks in part to a K:BB ratio of 14:9. Conor's batting .364 and has stolen six bases in six attempts. Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen are also hitting above .350 in Venezuela and Mexico, but since they are potenially going to be ex-Diamondbacks in the near future, I'm not going to look too hard there. The potential 2010 right-side of our infield continues to struggle: Tony Abreu has a .640 OPS in the Dominican, while Brandon Allen is hitting only .162 in the traditionally-hitter friendly AFL. Allen's 19 walks do lead the league, however.

On the pitching front, Tom Layne is the only one of the four in the AFL making a good impression. He has allowed two earned runs in 9.1 innings of work, on seven hits and four walks, with ten strikeouts. Bryan Augenstein has pitched the same number of innings, but allowed fifteen hits, leading to seven earned rusn. That's still better than Cesar Valdez, who has wobbled his way to an 11.25 ERA in eight innings. Intriguing line from the Dominican, where Jordan Norberto has nine strikeouts in five innings: while he's allowed five runs, only one has been earned. Scott Patterson has been working well in Venezuela: in 5.1 innings, he has given up three hits and a walk, with six K's.

Speaking of the AFL, today is the Rising Stars game at Surprise, where 50 of the best and brightest major-league baseball has to offer will go head to head. The only Diamondback taking part will be Allen, but it'll be almost your last chance to see live baseball from inside the United States until next March, so I fully intend to take advantage. As mentioned, the game is on both the MLB Network, and streaming for free at mlb.com, so there's no excuse not to be watching this one - and commenting in this thread. [I'll be here, just a little late, as we've got to have dinner first]

The scheduled starting pitchers are both 2009 frst-round draft picks - Desert Dogs right-hander Stephen Strasburg was #1 and Atlanta left-hander Mike Minor was #7. Be my first chance to see the much-vaunted Strasburg in action. Per Red Reign in the comments, looks like Strasburg has been scratched from the game with a strained neck. Probably injured it lugging his bonus to the bank.

Finally, Clay Zavada had his number, #35, retired by Illinois Valley Community College on Thursday. He pitched there in 2003 and 2004, and is the first alumni of the institution to reach the majors in its 85-year history. Around 200 replica handlebar mustaches were handed out for the ceremony, at half-time in a basketball game at the college in Oglesby. "It couldn’t happen to a better kid," said IVCC athletic director Tommy Canale. "He’s really had some tough tribulations in his life and he fought through that." Hear, hear.

Farewell: Chad Tracy, Yusmeiro Petit, Doug Slaten, Daniel Cabrera (and maybe Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen)

Jim McLennan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:05:45 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Chad Tracy gets high fives from Josh Whitesell and Augie Ojeda after hitting a three-run homer against the Pirates in July. Chad's now gone: who else will be left?

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With a hat-tip to Amit for the first news, a flurry of roster moves for the Diamondbacks the morning after the World Series - albeit most of them not entirely unexpected. Chad Tracy had his buyout exercised, while Daniel Cabrera, Trent Oeltjen and Alex Romero were outrighted to Reno. Cabrera has also elected to become a free agent instead, and it's possible Oeltjen and Romero may follow - ladylike weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth to follow. Yusmeiro Petit was picked up off waivers by the Mariners, and Doug Slaten went similarly to the Nationals. The 40-man roster now has five vacant spots left on it, after the moves.

Not really any surprises here. However, I'll write a bit more about these decisions in Saturday's round-up.

Nationals, Mariners claim Diamondbacks pitchers

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:28:54 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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It didn't take long for Diamondbacks pitchers Doug Slaten and Yusmeiro Petit to be claimed off waivers.

The Nationals were rewarded the claim on Doug Slaten, who hasn't been able to return to 2007 form when he went 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 61 appearances. The 29-year old lefty certainly will be a fixture in the Nationals' depleted bullpen next season.

Petit was picked up by the Mariners after going 3-10 with a 5.82 ERA last season. Petit struggled mightily as a starter, but I think he could find some success in a middle relief role.

The Yusmeiro Petit Addition

Jeff — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 05:49:55 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Yusmeiro Petit checks to see if he smells

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Major League Baseball has informed me that I'm free to talk about this now, so off we go. Also, congratulations, Alex.

Anyway, yeah, the Mariners picked up Yusmeiro Petit off waivers from the Diamondbacks today. Petit was made available because (A) he ran an ERA near six, (B) Arizona wanted to clear some roster space, and (C) he's out of minor league options. The M's, having just freed up a lot of room, decided, hey, why not? Nothing wrong with another warm body capable of starting a game.

Petit's name has long been in the middle of the neither-of-us-get-it-so-let's-try-maybe-shouting-really-loud stats vs. scouts debate, as his exceptional minor league numbers didn't match up with his middling repertoire. You see, Petit's the rare righty with a sub-90 fastball, but he's found a way to ride that, a change, and a breaking ball he likes to throw over a broad range of speeds all the way into the big leagues. The problem is that it hasn't exactly worked out for him against the highest level of competition, but he has still been able to have a little bit of success, proving that you don't always need to throw Major League stuff to retire Major League bats.

Petit's a guy that pounds the zone, mixes his pitches, and works up, with predictable results - he doesn't walk many, he gets his strikeouts, and he allows an obscene amount of fly balls and home runs. Despite a 2.5 career K/BB to date, the home runs have killed him. He's given up 50 through 229.1 innings with a HR/FB of 13.6%, which are just staggeringly bad numbers for a big league pitcher. His career 5.44 FIP reflects this inability to keep the ball in the yard and makes Petit out to be little more than a replacement-level pitcher.

However, there are two ways of thinking about that. One way is to look at Petit's four partial Major League seasons, see a ton of home runs in each of them, and conclude that hitters just pound his hittable arsenal. He throws 87, right? Of course he's going to be an exception to the law of HR/FB.

That way is wrong. The proper way of thinking about Petit's home runs is that he's accumulated his numbers over just 36 starts and 71 total appearances, the equivalent of maybe a season and a half. Do we expect HR/FB to be stable after a year and a half? Braden Looper just posted a 15.8% rate over 34 starts. You have to assume that a guy will perform normally until proven otherwise, and with Petit, he has a long way to go before he's proven otherwise. If you look at his Hit Tracker numbers, it's not like the home runs hit against him are taking off. It's luck until it's not, and as such, we should expect Petit's HR/FB to behave going forward.

Regress Petit's home runs and all of a sudden you're looking at a more useful pitcher, a pitcher capable of doing enough to have some success in a big park like Safeco. He'll always give up his dingers, but an above-average K/BB cures a lot of ills.

The only problem, then, is trying to account for the league switch. For his career, he's struck the pitcher out 28 times without walking him once. Take those away and his K/BB drops to 2.1 (I know K/BB isn't great, but it's simple, so bear with me), which is a bit more alarming. Remove the pitcher and add in the DH and you're back to having a guy who's likely to run an ERA north of 5 based on his track record, and then he's a fringey #5/6 who you're hoping either gets lucky or builds on some of his potential.

And that's why the Diamondbacks cut him loose - though Petit has his upside, he just doesn't project to be that useful without a little luck or improvement. Yeah, he had a 6.3 K/BB in the high minors five years ago, but as we've learned from Doug Fister, awesome minor league K/BB ratios don't translate that well when you don't have good stuff. The hitters up here are smarter. They're smarter, and they're better.

Petit, I imagine, is here to serve as insurance and as a Spring Training trial. As insurance, he's a warm body that makes it a little easier to dangle one of the starters we already have in the system. And as a trial, the M's could see how he looks in Peoria, with some good pitching maybe earning him a roster spot since we have tons of starters who I think could go back to Tacoma. Petit's nothing spectacular, but he's also not bad, and who knows, maybe a big park would give him the confidence to trust his stuff a little more.

It's not a groundbreaking move. I don't know why I've spent so long talking about this. I guess it's just cool to have the M's do something again, and plus Petit's got a neat little story. But just because it's a minor pick-up doesn't mean you should forget about him as quickly as you forgot about Reegie Corona. Petit has a shot. And a guy with a shot, I suppose, is a guy worth discussing.

The 2009 'Pitties: Single-game Performance of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:18:48 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Petit tallies up the hits by Pittsburgh. He looks almost as startled as we were by the answer.

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The first 'Pittie of the 2009 season proved to be one of the closest ballots in the history of the awards, with four of the options for Play of the Year each receiving between 19-24% of the vote, and the top two choices being tied as late as Wednesday afternoon, when 130 votes had been cast. However, the final few votes meant that the Play of the Year goes to the Triple-Play against the Dodgers. Josh Wilson's time with Arizona may have been short - only 11 games - but between this and his turn on the mound, it certainly had its share of memorable moments!

We now move on to the second category. After the jump, we'll revisit the five best single-game performances of the 2009 season by a Diamondback - and also see why, curiously, Roger Cedeno is connected to more than one of them! The links in the header go to the game recap, in a new browser window, so you can relive the performance there when considering your vote.

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine straight frames, June 7 vs. SDP
This game was nearly an awful example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Leading 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls allowed five runs to blow the game. In extra innings, the offense didn't help, being blanked for eight straight frames before Mark Reynolds homered off pinch-pitcher Josh Wilson in the 18th. But fortunately for Arizona, Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada + Leo Rosales were magnificent, allowing no hits from the 10th through the 18th, effectively pitching a no-hit complete game. Rosales finally got the win, retiring the last ten Padres.
Dan Haren goes fishing for Marlins, July 10 vs. FLA
The best-pitched game of the season by a Diamondback, as measured by Game Score, was Dan Haren's complete-game shutout of Florida just before the All-Star break [Haren had #2 and #3 on the list too]. It was also tied for the eighth-best Game Score in the National League this season. The four-hit gem featured one walk and ten strikeouts. After a single and wild pitch to lead off the game, the Marlins managed to get only one other runner past first-base the rest of the way. Haren also added a hit, driving in a run with an infield single in the fourth, and came around to score on a home-run by Felipe Lopez.

Yusmeiro Petit takes no-hitter into 8th inning, August 4 vs. PIT
Just for comparison, I don't think Brandon Webb has ever had a no-hitter through five innings, let alone allowing zero hits through the front seven. Of all the D-backs pitchers, you'd have got long odds against Petit coming closer to a no-hitter than anyone since the Big Unit's perfect game in 2004. But he completely blanked the Pirates offense, giving up only three walks before Roger Cedeno singled with no outs in the eighth. Petit retired the next three batters to finish strong, with eight shutout innings and threw 108 pitches, a dozen more than in any major-league game for his career.

Chris Young smacks three homers in a game, September 6 vs. COL
With homers in the second, sixth and eighth, Young became the eighth Diamondbacks to homer three times in a game. It was a startling performance as he'd only had two long balls in his previous fifty appearances combined, going all the way back to June 13th. According to Hit Tracker Online, the home-runs totaled 1,252 feet, almost a quarter-mile. Chris had a chance to go deep again in the ninth against Matt Herges, but the Rockies' hurler walked Young instead - not often you'll see a home pitcher being greeted with disapproval by the crowd for not giving up a home-run!
Justin Upton goes 5-for-5, September 16 vs. SDP
Upton became the 13th Diamondbacks to collect five hits in a game, and the first to do it on the road since Danny Bautista in April 2004 - that he did it in one of the most hitter-unfriendly parks in the league, Petco, makes the feat all the more impressive. He doubled in the first, singled in the fourth, and tripled in the sixth, giving him two chances at the cycle, but could 'only' single in the seventh and ninth. Just two players younger than Upton have gone 5-for-5 in a game, since Cal Ripken did it as a 21-year old in 1982 (Alex Rodriguez and Cedeno - yep, him again! - both in 1996).

Poll

What was the best single-game performance for Arizona in 2009?

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine innings

38 votes

Haren's complete-game shutout of the Marlins

18 votes

Petit takes no-hitter of the Pirates into 8th

20 votes

Young hits three homers vs. the Rockies

13 votes

Upton goes 5-for-5 against the Padres

12 votes

101 votes | Poll has closed

Your 2010 Diamondbacks: The First Projections

Jim McLennan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 04:43:32 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Eric Byrnes and Chris Young - will they float, or will they sink?

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After a crappy season like the one just endured by Arizona fans, it's comforting to turn towards 2010, even before the line is officially drawn under 2009 - the playoffs have largely become a buzzing sound in the background, with the best I can hope for, being that a team I don't hate wins the World Series. Bill James is clearly with me there: as has become tradition, the Bill James Handbook is the first of the projection systems to throw its hat into the ring for next year, and the publishers, Acta Sports, were kind enough to give us a look at the numbers for Arizona.

Think of this as an early Christmas present - it's as much designed to whet the appetite for the 'real' numbers to come next April, as anything else. That's especially the case for a generally young team like Arizona where, generally, we are looking for our players' stats to improve, simply through experience and maturity. After the jump, we'll take a look at the numbers projected for the 25 players currently most likely to be on the 2010 Diamondbacks roster, and see whether there is a shiny new truck or a lump of coal waiting for us under the tree.

Obviously, these are astonishingly early projections, not just in terms of the numbers, but the playing time for the individuals concerned. Even I would be rash to try and project, for example, how the playing time in the outfied will be split up next season: the one just finished should be warning enough there [who had 120 games in their Gerardo Parra office pool?]. Hence, for each hitter below, I've listed the number of games projected, which will influence expectations for HR and RBI in particular. I've also given their 2009 OPS, for comparison - those marked with a * are based on less than 150 PAs. I've chosen the 13 position players I think are most likely to be significant parts for next season, and for whom we have projections.

	Gms	HR	RBI	OPS	2009
Brandon Allen	122	19	60	.823	*.669
Eric Byrnes	74	7	28	.735	.663
Stephen Drew	151	17	71	.792	.748
Conor Jackson	135	12	69	.807	*.516
Miguel Montero	132	18	69	.801	.832
Gerardo Parra	132	8	64	.779	.729
Mark Reynolds	153	40	107	.907	.892
Ryan Roberts	125	11	47	.785	.783
Rusty Ryal	50	4	15	764	*.946
Chris Snyder	78	9	34	.761	.685
Justin Upton	148	28	90	.904	.899
Josh Whitesell	46	4	13	.802	*.633
Chris Young	151	25	73	.789	.711

The most obvious omission is Tony Abreu, who was not listed - I think he's more likely to be on the Opening Day roster than Rusty Ryal. I also note that the games played may make sense for individuals, but do not necessarily do so in total. adding up the totals for Byrnes, Parra, Upton and Young, you get 505 games: even allowing for PH appearances, this pretty much maxes the outfield, without any room for Conor Jackson. Unless he's playing first, but Brandon Allen has 122 games there too... You see the issue, which is why I'm not going to bother adding up these numbers to reach any kind of team total.

Still, such caveats aside, this makes for encouraging reading on an individual level, with most players expected to improve their performance, or at least stay around the same level. As noted, this is no surprise, given most of our players are on the upside of the aging curve. James is particularly impressed by Allen, whose OPS is projected to be behind only Reynolds and Upton. That seems optimistic, though I am prejudiced by his struggles in 2009. Somewhat of a bounceback for Byrnes and Young: the former goes from entirely-sucky to poor, while the latter goes from fairly-sucky to about CF average [I like the idea of 25 homers], and is projected to outperform Parra, slightly.

Montero is the only player with any real regression, and the gap in performance over Snyder is expected to be much smaller, only forty points of OPS. Roberts, Reynolds and, perhaps surprisingly, Upton are projected to be very close to 2009 production. I say that for J-Up, mostly because of his age: he's only 22 and, generally, players will improve significantly at that point, and so projecting no change feels conservative. If you discount the first two weeks of last season, Upton's OPS the rest of the way was .930,. and that may be a better starting point for his 2010 number. However, if you look at the ten 21-year olds whose OPS was closest to Upton's [a list that includes seven Hall of Famers!], their OPS at age 22 dropped fractionally, by eight points, so maybe we shouldn't expect too much.

Here are the projected pitching numbers. As with the hitters, I've selected a dozen for whom projections are available, who would seem to have a good shot at the roster. I did include Davis, even though I expect him to sign elsewhere; I certainly hope that whoever we do get as a replacement, provides around the same level of performance projected below.

	IP	W-L	ERA	2009
Blaine Boyer	57	3-4	4.74	4.12
Billy Buckner	94	4-6	4.98	6.40
Daniel Cabrera	42	2-3	5.14	6.00
Doug Davis	202	11-12	4.46	4.12
Juan Gutierrez	68	3-4	4.76	4.06
Dan Haren	221	16-9	3.38	3.14
Yusmeiro Petit	105	6-6	4.37	5.82
Chad Qualls	50	3-2	3.42	3.63
Leo Rosales	47	3-2	3.83	4.76
Max Scherzer	180	11-9	3.80	4.12
Esmerling Vasquez	54	3-3	4.67	4.42
Brandon Webb	180	13-7	3.40	N/A

As with the hitters, there are a couple of names who appear unfairly omitted. Clay Zavada appears to have a bullpen spot locked down, and is more likely to be a part of the team in 2010 than Cabrera. - maybe Daniel Schlereth too, though there were no numbers available for him Bit more of a variation here than on the hitting; generally, the trend seems to be an overall regression towards the mean, with the good pitchers getting worse and the bad ones getting better. I would, however, be prepared to bet that Yusmeiro Petit will not have an ERA better than Doug Davis next season.

One major comfort is the expectation that Brandon Webb will return almost to his normal level of productivity - James gives Webb thirty starts, and an ERA almost identical to that projected in 2008 (3.39) and 2009 (3.36), so appears to have no qualms about the surgery - though s hard to say how much such things play into these estimates. The numbers have him and Haren forming an impressive 1-2 punch for Arizona: worth nothing that less than a handful of NL pitchers are forecast to win over 15 games [Lincecum, Wainwright, Santana].It seems the W-L records are, as usual, conservative; makes sense, since these things depend heavily on the runs scored by a pitcher's team-mates.

I would project Buckner and Gutierrez to do better than the James numbers; on the other hand, Petit and Rosales will be doing very well if they can produce as expected. It's good to see James sees Scherzer as improving next year. If he joins Dan and Brandon at 3.80 or below, that would put us in very good shape, since only two teams in the majors had three such qualifying starters in 2009 (the Cubs and Cardinals), and few played in a hitter-friendly park like Chase. Finally, in case you're counting, adding up those W-L records gives us a total of 145 decisions and a team record of 78-67. I think we'd settle for that at the middle of September next year.

For the full projections, which are a lot more detailed than the numbers here, and for all the other goodies therein, you'll need to buy the book. It comes out on November 1st from Acta Sports and can be ordered through their website.

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part III: Starting Pitching

Jim McLennan — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed. Every morning a lion wakes up. It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death. In 2009,. score one for the gazelle, species Maximus Scherzerii.

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If someone were to make a movie based on the Diamondbacks' starting pitching, it would probably be titled The Good, The Not Bad, and the Ugly. The team lost Brandon Webb, who had won more games in the league than anyone else from 2005-08, after one ineffective outing, and his absence was felt the rest of the season, thanks mostly to the poor performances provided by the revolving door of replacements.

However, particularly in the first half, Haren stepped up and delivered some very ace-like outings. Garland and Davis, despite some road-bumps, proved to be the reliable innings-eaters expected, each cracking 200 innings on the season. Scherzer became a full-time member of the rotation for the first season, and finally picked up his first win, as well as going deeper into games than previously. After the jump, we'll take a look at our men on the mound in 2009.

1. Dan Haren. 229.1 IP, 3.14 ERA
Over the first half of the season, Haren was probably the best pitcher in the National League. In eighteen games, he had seventeen quality starts, an ERA of 2.01 and a K:BB ratio of better than 8:1.He certainly deserved a better record at the break than 9-5, and wasn't helped by receiving a total of three runs support over the defeats - his ERA in those five outings was 2.45. Oh, and did we forget to mention that he hit his first career home-run, off Bronson Arroyo in Cincinnati on June 30th?

Haren had always had a reputation for slipping in the second-half; we saw this in 2008, when his post-ASG ERA increased from 2.72 to 4.18. This year, it was even more pronounced, Dan's ERA ballooning from 2.01 to 4.62. Some of this was perhaps not unexpected, given his BA on Balls in Play during the first half was .233: That's unsustainably low, and regressed back to .315 in the second half. [Oddly, this has been consistent in Haren's seven-year career, with a BABIP 63 points better before the break] However, his other peripherals also collapsed: Haren's K:BB ratio nearly halved and his HR rate increased from 0.83/nine IP to 1.36. Whatever Dan is doing at the All-Star break, can he please stop it?

2. Doug Davis. 203.1 IP, 4.12 ERA
The idea of clutch hitting as a significant skill may have been largely debunked, but is there such a thing as clutch pitching? Doug's performance this year would seem to suggest it, but studies on this topic are less impressed: "pitchers don’t appear to have any special skill over other pitchers in performing in RSIP situations." Doug Davis scoffs at this: with no-one on base, batters facing him had a line of .308/.392/.507 - with runners in scoring position, it was .216/.322/.347. This is an extreme version of what he's been doing his entire career, where his RISP OPS is 79 points lower than when pitching

Over on Beyond the Box Score, Cyril Morong has a formula for estimating ERA based on OBP and SLG. Based on Davis's numbers, his ERA this year should have been 4.77. FIP agrees, putting Davis at 4.84, and it's true to say that discussion of re-signing Davis in Arizona would be more muted if his actual ERA was around those numbers, not 4.12. Now, there are any number of reasons why a pitcher's ERA can be below his FIP, but Davis had the biggest gap of any Arizona pitcher last season. Since his free-agent value is more likely to be based on his ERA than his FIP, worth thinking hard about whether you want to gamble on Davis repeating the feat for the next few seasons.

3. Max Scherzer. 170.1 IP, 4.12 ERA
While discussion over whether to move Max to the bullpen or leave him as a starter rumbles on, there wasn't much to dislike about his performance in the rotation during 2009. Only five qualifying pitchers his age in the NL had a better ERA+ than Max' (109). At 5.7 innings per start, he was in the middle of the pack with regard to his durability - league average was 5.8 - and Scherzer ended the game with seven straight starts going 100 pitches or more. Of course, that's part of the problem: at 4.14 pitches/PA, Max had the second-highest number of any qualifying pitcher in the majors (Clayton Kershaw was at 4.31).

On the other hand,. he was more effective the third time through the order, with an OPS 31 points better than the second time; the NL avg is 51 points worse. It did seem like he was going to run out of steam after he posted a 6.47 ERA in August, but rebounded nicely, with a 3.48 ERA in his five September starts, before being rested for his final outing, having hit 170 innings on the year. He was also the first qualifying starter for the Diamondbacks to strike out more than a batter per frame, since Randy Johnson in 2004. Scherzer is only the third such pitcher in franchise history, alongside the Big Unit (who did it five times) and Curt Schilling (three).

4. Jon Garland. 167.2 IP. 4.29 ERA [for AZ only]
Speaking of him, the impeccable one of last winter's front-office decisions, was signing Garland instead of Johnson; while RJ got #300 for the Giants, he was largely ineffective or injured. There's a fascinating thread over on DBBP, including an azcentral.com poll showing more than 70% of voters thought letting him go was a bad move. See also the crap I got (pg. 18 on) for pointing out that only four 45-year olds since the 19th century had pitched 150 innings at an ERA+ above 100. Johnson ended up doing neither, and Fangraphs.com puts his value this year at only $1.9m - below even what he was offered by Arizona and far from the $8m plus bonuses paid by SF.

Beyond "I told you so about Johnson," Garland proved a solid mid-rotation pitcher. He gave us a quality start in two-third of his outings (league average is 55%), though his numbers were bloated by a couple of horrendous outings. The main factor in his performance was walks: in starts for Arizona when he walked three or more batters, his ERA was 6.35; when two or less, it dropped to 3.53. His greatest contribution to the Diamondbacks may be yet to come, though this will depend on whether Tony Abreu proves to be the second-baseman of the future for us. If so, then it will be another way Garland has provent to be a superior signing to Johnson.

5. Everyone else. 197 IP, 6.26 ERA
This covers 38 starts made by six different pitchers - I tried to find a picture of a six-headed beast, but Google Images proved no help. Seven-headed, not a problem, but six? Sorry. Anyway, the great bulk of them (30) were by Yusmeiro Petit and Billy Buckner: Petit was vulnerable as ever to the long-ball, with eighteen home-runs in 83.1 innings as a starter [it was "only" the fourth-worst rate in the majors this year though; Baltimore's David Hernandez allowed 27 in 101.1 IP], yet also took an extremely-unexpected no-hitter into the eighth inning. All told though, I'd say he's teetering on the edge of not making the 25-man roster next season.

Buckner is likely on stronger ground. After being sent to Triple-A, he came back with a new cut fastball and was a great deal more effective. Over the 36.2 innings after his return, he had a very credible 3.93 ERA - it had been more than double that (8.63) in his first 40.2 innings of work. With three spots in the 2010 rotation undecided, he seems to have the inside track on the #5 position at the moment, but he may still have to compete with the likes of Kevin Mulvey, Daniel Cabrera and Bryan Augenstein for the job. However, after what happened this season, I think we'd all be a lot happier if our credible starting pitchers required more hands than one to count them.

Poll

How much would you pay for Doug Davis next year? [2009 salary: $8.75m]

$10 million or more

3 votes

$9 million

24 votes

$8 million

23 votes

$7 million

37 votes

Less than that

48 votes

135 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks: what the heck happened?

Jim McLennan — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:00:17 -0000

Worst Case Scenario… Arizona battles with Colorado for third place.
-- Baseball Digest Daily Team Preview, March 15, 2009

The above is a measure of how badly things went for our team this year: the "worst case scenario" suggested, would be something for which we would now be more than happy to settle. It's comforting to realize that I am far from the only person to have seen their high expectation for the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks mercilessly dashed. Virtually every pundit I could locate online predicted us to have a winning record - the respected Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections had the team all the way up at 88 wins, and they weren't alone.

Other sites predicted 86 wins; 85 wins, 84 wins, 88 wins, 83 wins for Arizona, and even CHONE, the most pessimistic I could find at 79 wins, had us finishing only three games back of the Dodgers. From a more fan-based perspective, in our pre-season poll, of approaching three hundred participants, only 12% predicted the Diamondbacks would have less than eighty victories, never mind struggling to reach seventy. Not quite the same realm as the chairman of DEC saying "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home," but why were so many people - neutral observers, with no vested interests or rose-colored fandom glasses - so completely wrong? Why was there such a gulf between expectations and reality? After the jump, we'll break down some numbers - here are Josh Byrnes and AJ Hinch talking about the season that's just finished.

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

Injuries
Let's not kid ourselves. The loss of Brandon Webb was a devastating blow to the Diamondbacks in 2009, as much because it was completely unexpected to us. After all, over the previous five season, he had never made less than 33 starts per year. To be reduced from that, at an ERA+ of 140 to a single, ineffective outing was clearly a huge factor in the team's underperformance. How much?

Let's look at Webb's record in 2005, 2006 and 2008, when the total number of runs scored by the team (696, 712 and 720) were close to this year, when it's exactly the same as 2008, at 720. In those three years, Webb's collective ERA was 3.31 - one tick above the number posted last season - and his average W/L record was 17-9, with the team going 19-14 in his starts This seems a reasonable estimate for what we "should" have got from Webb this year, assuming run support approximately matching those hundred starts, and an ERA consistent with last year.

Instead of him, there was the Quadruple-headed Beast of Webb-Replacement Suck: Bryan Augenstein, Yusmeiro Petit, Billy Buckner and Kevin Mulvey. While Buckner has, of late, looked a semi-credible back-end candidate for 2010, this has been the exception, rather than the rule. In their first 33 starts, that quartet had an ERA of 6.24, went 5-18 and the team posted a record of 9-24 - ten games worse than that we could realistically have expected from 33 Webb starts. Even using a more conservative estimate - Fangraph.com's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) - we find that Webb in 2008 was worth six wins to Arizona - the four-pack of replacements plus Webb in 2009 rated only 0.3 wins in 33 starts, 5.7 less. I'd split the difference between the two methods and say Webb's injury cost us eight wins

We should also consider the unfortunate loss of Conor Jackson to valley fever, which basically meant he had the entire season written off. No real way to measure his input except by using WAR. This tells us there's a difference of 4.5 wins between what we got from the SnakePit MVP in 2008 and his sub-replacement output for the team this season. So, between the loss of him and Webb, we're probably looking at a cost to the team around twelve games. That's a massive difference by itself, almost enough to have put the team into contention for the wild-card, and is not including anyone else - I believe Arizona's players missed a total of almost 800 player-games on the DL. But wait! There's more...

Trades
After it became apparent that this team was not going to be in the post-season hunt, several deals were made, sending useful pieces to other teams, generally in exchange for players who might help the team in 2010 or beyond. The players we lost would likely have helped the Diamondbacks to several more victories - albeit meaningless ones - had we retained their services for the rest of the season. From WAR, we can see what the ex-Diamondbacks did for their new teams - production which could have been in Arizona.

Of course, we need to balance against this, the production provided to Arizona this season, by what we received in return. The chart below shows the four main trades, with the WAR values given to their new teams after the trade, on both sides of the deal:

Left Arizona	WAR	To Arizona	WAR
Jon Garland	0.6	PTBNL	0.0
Felipe Lopez	2.6	Cole Gillespie Roque Mercedes	0.0
Tony Peña	0.5	Brandon Allen	-0.6
Jon Rauch	0.3	Kevin Mulvey	-0.1
TOTAL	4.0	TOTAL	-0.7

Ugh. I hope those trades work out better for us in the long-term than they did this season, because they provided absolutely nothing of value to the 2009 team. While it would be simple just to say that we would have approached five wins better, simply by hanging on to the players with whom we started the season, it probably isn't as simple as that, because of the positional changes. The replacement at second for Lopez was mostly Rusty Ryal, who was a credible +0.6 WAR in his time here. While still well short of F-Lo, who hit .320 for the Brewers over 66 games, it's enough to make me reduce the overall impact to four wins.

Almost as significant a weakening were the Peña and Rauch deals, not just for what they would have done in the 'pen but the negative impact of the players received in return. After the way Allen tore up AAA pitching, an OPS+ of 70 in more than thirty games was still disappointing. I think we'll be taking Reno numbers with a larger pinch of salt next season. Mulvey lacked control, issuing 14 free passes (a dozen walks and two hit batters) and five home-runs in only 23 innings. He'll need to do better than that, if he wants even to be our sixth starter next year - a spot at which, as noted above, Arizona blew chunks. We'll discuss the moves more in due course, I think; both Mulvey and Allen will only be 24 on Opening Day 2010, so that's in their favor.

"Bad luck"
Yeah, this may sound like a Cubs-esque cop-out, but there's some evidence to suggest the team was unlucky, and I don't just mean the lodging of fungal sports in the lungs of one of our best 2008 hitters. Baseball is a chaotic, in mathematical terms, game - in the sense that a tiny change in circumstances can have a massive effect on results. For example, a couple of millimeters difference on where the ball hits the bat, far beyond what any hitter can control consciously, may be the difference between a grand-slam and an inning-ending can of corn to the outfield. However, that requires a good deal more space, and this piece has already gone on long enough, so I'll carry any detailed analysis there forward for another day... But it's probably worth at least another three wins.

Conclusions
That brings us to a total of 19 wins lost to the Diamondbacks by factors more or less outside their control - the trades would likely not have happened had the team still been in contention, which in turn was the result of a combination of factors, including injuries and the whims of the baseball gods. It's enough to explain the entire gulf between performance and expectations, and then some.

This does not absolve the front-office from responsibility for their part in the disappointing season. Given the known issue with Webb's shoulder - which was apparently a big enough concern to stop the two sides from agreeing on a contract extension - it was particularly reckless to have no credible backup available in our pitching rotation. First-base continues to be a major black-hole of offensive production, and with the honorable exception of Dan Haren, the contract extensions awarded over the past few years have yet to bear fruit (and that's putting it mildly). Those outside the lines certainly have their share of blame.

However, even with all the self-inflicted wounds, the Diamondbacks as formulated on Opening Day 2009 would, if fully healthy and getting anything approaching normal luck, have been over .500, at the very least. Indeed, thanks to a number of everyday players surpassing expectations (Montero, Upton, Reynolds), 90 wins could conceivably have been achieved had the breaks gone minorly our way. Again, I'll analyze our actual performances more in the coming weeks, but you might find some surprises there too [here's a tidbit - the 2009 bullpen was, by at least one advanced measure, better than in 2008].

September: A Gurgling Vortex of Suckitude in Review

Jim McLennan — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 04:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

When I search for Leo Rosales, AP gives me two photos - one of which is actually Clay Zavada. Poor Leo. So, here's the other one.

Browse more photos »

An 8-18 record. Only 3.77 runs per game. A -41 run differential. Pretty much the worst month for the team since June 2006, when we went 8-20 and were -72 in runs - though even there, we scored four runs per game. The offense in particular was phoning in its performance, with a line of .247/.314/.393, an OPS of only .707. While a little better than April's .703, that was partly-based on a low BABIP figure of .265. In September, the figure was .300. League average for both was .298, so the team wasn't unlucky last month - they flat-out sucked.

This is not what you want at the end of the season. What you want are some nuggets of hope, onto which you can cling through the long, dark winter - a sense that better things are just around the corner for your team. September was not such a month. The only comfort to be drawn is that the Mets and Pirates both had a worse time of it, going 8-20. I don't know about you but, "we sucked fractionally less than Pittsburgh" is not the final thought I want to take away from the 2009 season. After the jump, we'll see if we can find any heroes, and also name some names...

Heroes

Few and far between this month: to get five, I had to lower the bar significantly compare to previous months. Therefore, you should think of the following, not perhaps as those who played particularly well, but more those who didn't blow quite as many chunks as their team-mates.

Billy Buckner: 30.1 IP, 31 H, 10 BB, 26 K, 13 ER, 3.86 ERA
The addition of a cut-fastball to Buckner's armory appeared to turn him from the sub-replacement pitcher we saw at the start of the year [an 8.63 ERA in his first 40.2 innings], to being perhaps the foremost candidate for the #5 starter's spot next season. Stilll a work in progress, he needs to keep the ball down if he's to be effective.

Miguel Montero: .310/.372/.452, 3 HR, 9 RBI
The last few games will decide whether Montero can hit .300 on the year - he currently sits at .299 - but he posted his third straight month above that line in September. Though his power was down, from 11 doubles to three, Montero took a season-high number of walks, leading to a year's best OBP of .372.

Leo Rosales: 11.2 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 5 K, 4 ER, 3.09 ERA
Not a great month for the bullpen, who burbled their way to a collective 5.35 ERA in September. The only other reliever with five innings and an ERA under 4.80 was Gutierrez at 3.86, so Rosales deserves credit. He has got his ERA back to near-league average with a good couple of months, and seems we could do worse at the back of the 2010 bullpen.

Max Scherzer: 31 IP, 24 H, 12 BB, 24 K, 12 ER, 3.48 ERA
We were concerned about Max wearing down at the end of the season, but he proved to be our most effective starter in September, though you wouldn't know it from his 1-3 record. He did allow six home-runs over the month, but all of them were solo shots. For a 25-year old in his sophomore season, he's had a solid year.

Chris Young: .266/.343/.500, 6 HR, 10 RBI
Probably the brightest note on offense was the return to form of Young, who had the best OPS of anyone with 30 PAs. Even putting aside the power-surge, including three HR in one game, his .266 average has been bettered by Young only once since May 2007. If he can carry that into 2010, it'll be a significant help to the team.

Villains

A special, extended edition of this section, thanks to a pitching staff whose ERA was 15th in the league at 5.24, and hitters ranked 14th by runs scored. A special note on the offense. At .750 and .670, two of our starting pitchers, Billy Buckner and Dan Haren, each had better OPS numbers in September than all of the following batters.

Brandon Allen: .188/.282/.377, 3 HR, 9 RBI
First baseman of the future? Not on September's performance, which also included 25 strikeouts in 69 at-bats. Manager AJ Hinch thinks Allen panics with two strikes: "I think he gets in-between pitches. He worries about the breaking ball...and gets a little jumpy with the fastball... His strike-zone judgment is actually pretty good... I think that over time that will allow him to be a better two-strike hitter."

Doug Davis: 26.1 IP, 42 H, 14 BB, 16 K, 20 ER, 6.84 ERA
If Davis is pitching for a big free-agent contract, you wouldn't know it. That's his worst ERA for any month with more than one start in over eight years, since a 7.71 ERA in three April 2001 games. Opponents hit .375 off Davis in September. He wasn't helped by a .415 BABIP - but nor was he helped by a K:BB ratio perilously close to even.

Stephen Drew: .240/.294/.350, 1 HR, 6 RBI
I remember at the break, we were hoping for the same second-half surge we got from Drew in 2008. It hasn't happened, with a 50-point drop in his OPS since the break, though this month was better than May for Drew. Could the problem be his removal from the lead-off spot? There, he hits .305, eighty points higher than in the two-hole.

Kevin Mulvey: 23 IP, 23 H, 12 BB, 18 K, 18 ER, 7.04 ERA
Not looking like one of Byrnes' best trades. Jon Rauch has a 2.08 ERA for the Twins, and picked up as many victories in his first two games there, as during his entire time in Arizona. Mulvey, meanwhile has been hit hard - five home-runs in September, a Petit-esque rate. Those and the walks are what have hurt his overall numbers.

Yusmeiro Petit: 11.1 IP, 15 H, 5 BB. 10 K, 10 ER, 7.94 ERA
Speaking of Petit-esque... Here's the real deal, showing how it should be done, with three home-runs in this brief stint. Part of the problem is, seven of the last eight HR allowed have come with men on base; in his first 25 career homers, 20 were solo shots. Insane fly-ball rate + Chase Field = may end up not being present on the 2010 roster.

Mark Reynolds: .187/.286/.363, 4 HR, 11 RBI
Special K just doesn't like September. His career OPS for the month is .751 - the next-lowest is more than 60 points better. He probably wasn't helped by a BABIP of .250 - he has been anywhere from .319 to .396 the rest of the season, averaging .338. Srikeouts and walks remained remakably consistent, but it does seem he is flagging at the end of a long, largely memorable, season.

Ryan Roberts: .224/.298/.303, 1 HR, 5 RBI
RR's roller-coaster year continues: in the four months with 50+ PAs, his OPS has been .933, .396, 1.004 and .600 - no month within four hundred points of the next. Maybe we only need to play him in months that end in a Y? He had the lowest OPS of anyone with more than twenty PAs, and did little to solidify his claim on a starting-role next year.

Poll

Who was the Diamondbacks' Player of the Month for September?

Billy Buckner

14 votes

Miguel Montero

29 votes

Leo Rosales

1 votes

Max Scherzer

2 votes

Chris Young

26 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

Prospect Prelude: Jeremy Hellickson

Jeremy Kempter — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:58:39 -0000

The front office here at fake teams has given me the call-up.

I’m going to write about minor leaguers and prospects, pre- and post-hype, coming to a big league city soon.

From now until the end of the season, we’re going to run down some kids to consider stashing away as keepers for 2010, assuming you have the room. (And I’m assuming you’re in a keeper league; if you’re not, you’re missing out, big time.) Roster these guys now – let’s also they are available already in Yahoo or whichever site you use – and gauge their value when the hype starts kicking into high gear next spring.

I’m not going to waste your time waxing poetic about Stephen Strasberg or Neftali Feliz or even Brian Matusz. I’m addressing deeper mixed leagues where you need to do your homework to stay ahead of the pack. After all, it’s a lot less expensive to land a player before he becomes a star than after.

Our first installment is on Jeremy Hellickson, a 22-year-old right-hander in the Tampa Bay organization. He was drafted in the fourth round in 2005 out of his Iowa high school.

I actually drafted his teammate Wade Davis heading into this season and waited impatiently as the Rays did their usual foot-dragging to promote their talented youngsters. Needless to say, I dropped Davis, he was immediately scooped up and I’ve been kicking myself ever since.

But, it seems, Hellickson could be better.

Baseball people are split on Hellickson’s potential. His velocity (typically topping out at 93 mph) doesn’t dazzle like Davis’ (95 mph), and he’s not the protypical 6-foot-5 either. (He goes about 6-1, 185 pounds.) He's been compared to Roy Oswalt or Tim Hudson, for his size, and his delivery looks a little like Brad Penny's.

Hellickson can crank it up to 94-95, to be fair, but his 79 mph changeup is more effective when it is coupled with a free-and-easy low-90s fastball because his release looks identical. He works off his fastball, but his change is his out pitch. He also has an above-average curveball, and he is working on a sinker.

The digits that really do Hellickson justice are 2009’s 9-2 record, 2.45 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .178 BAA, 132 strikeouts, in 114 innings across Double- and Triple-A.

And he’s been rollin’ lately, a regular Hellickson on wheels. Check out the strikeout totals from his last four starts: 10, 10, 12, 9. His walk total during that stretch? Five.

And this isn’t a one-year fluke. In five minor league seasons, he’s got a 37-13 mark, 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 507 K’s and 100 BB’s in 461 innings.

Of course minor league numbers don’t always translate to the bigs. Just ask Yusmeiro Petit.

But Hellickson’s numbers are so sparkling, they could be scuffed up in The Show and still shine. I mean, if you know how to be that successful, some of it has to translate. Plus, he has been praised for his bulldog mentality and even-keeled maturity.

There’s no telling when the aforementioned slow-moving Rays brass will promote this starter to the major league rotation, seeing that James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis all stand in the way.

But injuries and trades happen, and right now Hellickson can be had for free (or pretty cheap) and is sure to be in or around the top 10 of most prospect lists next spring.