SB Nation - Felipe Paulino

Fast Eddie Wade ends Astros' quiet offseason by signing pitcher Ryan Sadowski

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 22:56:58 -0000

The Big Sadowski mows down the Astros this past July.

Oh, Ed. Just when we thought you were going to sit on your hands and do nothing during the early days of the hot stove season, you make a savvy, depth-conscious signing by bringing former San Francisco Giant Ryan Sadowski into the fold.

You may remember Sadowski from such games as the July 3rd, 13-0 beatdown where Sadowski pitched seven shutout innings against our boys. So I guess, if you can beat them....join...them? We'll assume that's what went through Sadowski's head this morning.

After being drafted by the Giants in 2003, "The Big Sadowski" (and yes, that nickname will stick around these parts) hung around in the minors for six seasons before getting called up last season to take the place of injured starter Jonathan Sanchez. Sadowski had mixed results in his six big league starts, finishing the season with a 4.45 ERA and a 17/17 K/BB ratio.

Without having a ton of information to go off of, the knocks against Sadowski appear to be a lack of control, and a mediocre repertoire of pitches. CHONE recently released their 2010 pitcher projections, and their outlook for Mr. Sadowski is as a reliever, but is fairly optimistic:

IP	R	BB	K	ERA
53	28	26	44	4.42

Not going to wow you, but could be a useful arm to have around come spring training. With Wesley Wright, Felipe Paulino and Wilton Lopez expected to compete for the fifth starter's slot, Sadowksi should have an opportunity as well. If he can't beat one of them out, it's not as if the starting rotation in Round Rock is overflowing with talent, so he will be ready if and when he is needed.

Not quite the big move we were hoping for at this point in the offseason, but this is the sort of under the radar acquisition that may end up paying fairly large dividends in the upcoming season.

Sherman's Second Plan To Top Atlanta

Sam Page — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:01:03 -0000

Recently at the Post, Joel Sherman threw some water on the John Lackey dreams of many Mets fans, instead proposing a series of buy-low candidates the Mets would be prudent to acquire. His criteria reads:

So if the obvious avenues are blocked, where do the Mets go? I am going to recommend three starters that have this in common: They are AL flyball pitchers with high-end stuff, coming off bad years (all had 5.00-plus ERAs).

He is overstating the effect of switching leagues by totally ignoring qualified National League pitchers, but is definitely considering some qualities the Mets should pay more attention to. Did his search yield anyone worth acquiring?

Sherman's first suggestion is Jeremy Guthrie. He starts with a pretty convincing case against Guthrie:

Guthrie is coming off, by far, his worst season (10-17, 5.04 ERA), and his strikeout rate fell for a fourth straight year, never a good sign.

His strikeout rate didn't just decline, it went from barely average to bad:

via www.fangraphs.com

Guthrie seemingly never had very good stuff, which would violate Sherman's high-end stuff condition. But wait!

But Yankee hitters continued to praise his stuff.

That's a basically meaningless statement, since you wouldn't expect the Yankees to trash their opponents publicly. The assumption there, however, that a drop in "stuff" hasn't led to the drop in strikeout rate, is supported by Pitchf/x finding virtually no change in his pitches' movement. As for his extreme flyball tendencies, Sherman conflates some trends, and ignores most of his career numbers.

He yielded the most homers in a season in the AL since 2006 (35). Fewer than half (17) came at home, but he was the second most extreme flyball pitcher among qualified AL starters in 2009.

Guthrie, the third most extreme flyball pitcher among qualified AL starters in 2009, posted a 10.9% HR/FB, which is actually exactly equal to his career mark. In fact, the huge number of homeruns was the result of Guthrie going from a career extreme groundball pitcher to flyball pitcher suddenly. As a result, his homeruns allowed should only be expected to come down if you think he will revert back to a groundball pitcher suddenly, which is much less likely than simply regressing from some bad luck. While this expectation may be a decent gamble in itself, best-case Jeremy Guthrie is a groundball pitcher with averageish stuff, which is basically the opposite of what Sherman was trying to find. That being considered, Ruben Tejada and Bobby Parnell, Sherman's proposed package, is a horrible trade for a pitcher who is best case Pelfrey-lite and worst case, useless.

For his second proposal, Sherman does something odd, pointing out how team-abuse led to Gil Meche injuring his arm, then quotes the organization that abused him to prove Meche would be alright:

But he was doing bullpen sessions late in the year and two Royals officials told me that if the team was in contention, he would have been able to pitch.

Was it the same Royals official who said Meche's injury came from having the wrong "mindset"? Meche did have some bad luck with homeruns, the difference between bad 5.40 tRA and a not-good-at-all regressed 5.04 tRA*. There's precedent, however: throughout most of Meche's mostly forgettable Seattle career he posted similar HR/FB numbers. Bottom line: why trade for and subsequently pay $24MM dollars for two years of a huge injury risk, with higher-upside, cheaper, injury risks on the free agent market? Busted Gil Meche for two years or Rich Harden for one? Sherman fittingly proposes trading Castillo, because the Royals need fielding help, Sherman and Dayton Moore being the last two people on Earth who believe Luis Castillo plays anything better than horrible defense.

His third idea, Ervin Santana, is like Gil Meche in that he did have some bad luck with homers last year, but has the larger red flag of arm issues and a big contract. Unlike Meche, however, Santana is a year removed from a great 6 WAR season and could be worth the risk. For that same reason, though, he'd likely cost more in trade.

Not being one to criticize without contributing, however, I'll add three buy-low pitchers, who don't necessarily conform to Sherman's criteria (much like his own three).

1. Felipe Paulino- Paulino went 3-11 with a 6.27 ERA, which likely makes Astros GM Ed Wade's eyes bleed. Underneath those superficial stats, however, Paulino had very good peripherals and an absurd HR/FB rate, making his tRA* an above-average 4.42. He's got blazing stuff, a very unfavorable home ballpark, and his value couldn't be lower. Trading for Paulino seems like a total no-brainer.

2. Sergio Mitre- I think Mitre fits Sherman's rubric for a trade target better than any of his three. Mitre demonstrated middling stuff with improved control, but somehow gave up 10 homeruns in just 51 ML innings. With an ERA of 6.79, and an xFIP of 4.19, Mitre may be worth the rare cross-town trade.

3. Braden Looper- Seriously. Looper surrendered a crazy 39 homeruns, playing his home games in hitter-friendly Miller Park. In Citi Field, Looper could likely replicate his solid back-of-the-rotation or better performances with the Cardinals.

Similar buy-low candidates: Ricky Nolasco (the king of bad luck: pitched like an ace, ERA like someone on the Mets), Brett Myers, Aaron Cook, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Derek Lowe.

One lesson Astros owner Drayton McLane MUST learn this offseason

DyingQuail — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:13:58 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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For the last few days I've been mulling over what would be my in my annual condemnation of something that Drayton McLane does or doesn't do that bugs me as a fan. Last year, I'll admit, I was little on the absurd side. This year my goal will be to focus on the practical instead of the fantastical.

Since Cecil Cooper's firing, and even before that, Drayton McLane stated publicly that he didn't understand why the Astros weren't destroying opponents, because, after all, they had one of the leagues highest payrolls. I'm not sure how much of it was rhetoric, or if any of it was even self-delusion, but those kind of statements frighten me to no end. So this offseason, instead of hoping for Drayton McLane to graciously open up some of his near $1.2 billion in net worth on the free agent market, I'll aim a lot lower.

Drayton McLane seems to be missing a very crucial piece of the puzzle: How much money is spent or how good the team has been in years past, is not actually what determines the on field product. What determines the on field product is the quality of assets that are currently being invested in. It's probably not that far off from the performance of mutual fund. (For a refresher on just how the Astros performed, relative to their salaries, head over to the freely available breakdown at BtB).

It's no secret, the Astros are not a well constructed team. I just linked above to a number of pretty charts that speak this fact, and just about everyone here, at one time or another, has probably cited and elaborated upon several other means of illustrating this point.

However, the actual problem that this organization has been plagued with for the last few years seems to be one that will continue to plague it going forward: Drayton McLane's willingness to bury his head in the sand. When Cooper was fired, Drayton made it clear that it would be just the first of many overhauls to this organization. Yet, it seems like Cooper's firing will be just what Tim Purpura and Phil Garner's firings were in 2007: smoke and mirrors to entice fans into believing that in overhauling the management, and not the team on the field, that things will get better—over night. There seems to be no substance to these moves. They just seem like the impulsive move to cast blame on something other than the problem itself: that the Astros are inefficient and that much is needed to be done to make the efficient. This team doesn't didn't need to have its manager fired, what this team needed was a fresh, intelligent, and above all, realistic approach.

So my hope for this offseason, is that Drayton will have will have a "the buck stops here" moment this offseason (soon would be nice). Without that kind of epiphany, there will be no progress with this ball club in the short term (two-three years). Bobby Heck's draftees can't progress overnight, and we can only expect so much out of Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, and Jason Castro in 2010. What we can, and should expect, from our owner, who is a business savvy man, is for him to understand that there isn't an easy fix with this team; that he can't keep measuring his expectations against the ledger; and that the fate of his franchise is in no one else's hands but his. Because until Drayton learns that it's not about spending more or spending less, he won't focus on spending smartly.

Now, is this so unreasonable of me to wish for?

Brewers 6, Astros 0

KLSnow — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 20:58:53 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Yovani Gallardo pitches during the first inning Sunday. Gallardo and three relievers combined to shut out the Astros.

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W: Yovani Gallardo (13-12)
L: Felipe Paulino (2-10)

HR: Corey Hart (12), Prince Fielder (40), Jody Gerut (8)

MVP: Yovani Gallardo (+.216)
LVP: Casey McGehee (-.036)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

If you missed today's game to watch some other sport, you missed a bunch of milestones at Miller Park:

Yovani Gallardo, making his final start of the 2009 season, struck out seven batters in five innings. That leaves him with a season total of 204. He's just the fourth Brewer ever to record 200 strikeouts in a season.
Prince Fielder hit his 40th home run in the first inning, making him just the second Brewer in franchise history to reach 40 home runs twice. He also drew a walk in the fifth inning, becoming the first Brewer ever to reach 100 in a season. He drew his 101st in the eighth.
Ryan Braun picked up two hits today, and his fifth inning single was the 500th hit of his career.
Corey Patterson also singled in the fifth, picking up his first Brewer hit. He was later picked off.

Yovani Gallardo and three Brewer relievers didn't need much run support today, but the Brewer bats got them enough. The Brewers scored four runs off Felipe Paulino in the game, all on home runs, and added two more in the eighth while the Brewers combined to shut out the Astros. Remarkably, it's the ninth time the Astros have scored one run or less in 15 Paulino starts this season. Gallardo's final line: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K.

Carlos Villanueva (sixth inning), Chris Smith (seventh and eighth innings) and Mike Burns (ninth inning) combined to complete the shutout. With the win, the Brewers have won eight of their last ten games to inch back to within one game of .500.

Can the 2010 Astros be competitive?

DyingQuail — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

My opinion: 2010 hinges on this man's performance.

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I'll admit from the outset that this depressing for me to write for two reasons. One, of course, being that it's depressing that I can't find anything worth writing about the 2009 Astros and two being that I am left wondering how the 2010 Astros can do better than their 2009 version. This ominous thought has been lurking in the back of my mind since I did an interview with Fred Fauor a few weeks ago in which the topic of how the 2010 Astros should assemble themselves left me clawing for any semblance of hope (which is a sports fan's best friend in times like these).

The logical place to start this conversation is payroll. A team can't build something if it can't afford to buy the requisite building materials. Everytime I have tried to account for the dollars and cents of the core of the Astros roster for next year I've totaled $75 to $82 million. This roster includes (with best guess efforts for arbitration bonuses and salary escalation):

Lance Berkman
Carlos Lee
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Hunter Pence
Michael Bourn
Jeff Keppinger
Kazuo Matsui
Tommy Manzella
Miguel Tejada (anywhere from $6 million to $11 million. The latter would actually be his fair market value at 3B if he replicated 90% of his offensive production from this year, assuming a cost of $4.5 million per WAR)
LaTroy Hawkins (anywhere from $4.5 million to $7 million to be our closer)
Bud Norris
Felipe Paulino
Brian Moehler
Yorman Bazardo
Sammy Gervacio
Alberto Arias
Chris Sampson
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak or some a near equivalent LOOGY
Humerto Quintero
Jason Castro
JR Towles or Brian Bogusevic
Rounding out the roster with relief pitchers that will have an average price tag of $1.25 million

This would be a young Astros team compared to their previous few versions, so there is of course the ability to infer hope from it because the projections for many of these players has a wide range of variance. But is that the kind of hope that we as Astros fans—especially most of the regulars here, who all have a far more sharply objective view of baseball—want claim? Can we even claim that as hope? I guess the answers to that are personal and subject to one's own preferences.

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) for you, the readers, I get to work out my thought process in front of you. For those who just want to move past this discussion, I'll do this after the jump.

If we have learned anything from the 2009 version of the Astros it is this: A seemingly stacked offense is not a good way to build a baseball team. The fact of the matter is, and will continue to be, that the core of our line up has skill set that is high slugging percentage relative to on-base percentage. This, as we now are so painfully aware of, does not an offense make. There's just no consistency in such a skill set and that fact was exacerbated by poor managerial strategy by the man at the helm of the offense, Cecil Cooper.

Even if the Astros front office decides to spare us the indignity of having Cecil Cooper continue to pull all the levers of the 2010 Astros, offense will not be our strong suit. This leaves us to the lesson we all learned in 2005: If you've got pitchers who pitch well, the team will perform well. As of right now, the only starting pitcher I put on the list above who I have confidence in is Wandy Rodriguez. I hope that Roy Oswalt will pitch well on a consistent basis in 2010, but his continued climb into his thirties, combined with his worrisome back issues, don't fill me with the confidence that the Wizard once inspired.

Dratyon McLane has already announced that payroll in 2010 will be lower than payroll in 2009, and has cited attendance this year as the motivation for this reduction. If payroll is scaled down to match in the loss in attendance revenues this year, than would place the Astros at somewhere within a million or two dollars of $90 million. That doesn't leave a lot of dough to fill out the bench and bullpen, while also buying the services of another top-tier pitcher to complement Roy and Wandy.

That leaves the likely candidates as Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Brian Moehler. However, it's hard to say that all aren't question marks in my mind. I doubt that our starting rotation will include more than two of the above to start the season, as I am sure there will be some manner of reclamation project scooped up by Ed Wade this winter. I also doubt that this unnamed pitcher will be more than a giant question mark in my mind as well. How can I be so confident that whatever Ed Wade pulls off the scrap heap will be a question mark? Just take a look at the options.

Bud Norris has flashed brilliance this season, but Wandy Rodriguez had a long and torturous journey to consistently being brilliant, so it's hard for me to place too much hope in Bud. Were Bud Norris to speed up his learning curve and provide legitimate number three services, then the Astros would have a strong rotation. Not 2005 strong, but strong enough to inspire confidence, and dare I say it, hope. Were Bazardo, Moehler, Wright (who'll be auditioned as a starter this spring, allegedly), and whoever is Ed Wade's reclamation project, to be relegated to the four and five slots, then they're imperfections and questions marks wouldn't matter as much. 2009 has been dismal mainly because 3/5 of the time there's no reason to expect good things from the guy taking the mound. At times, when injury has felled Wandy and Roy, there's almost no reason to hope for anything other than an offensive explosion to mask the deficiency in pitching.

So I've talked myself to this point: Should Bud Norris be an effective starting pitcher next year, I think that the 2010 Astros can be competitive. Do I have hope? There's a glimmer of it. Am I being unduly pessimistic? I'll leave that for you to decide. Have I missed/glossed over something? Probably. Again, tell me where I went wrong.

Friday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 11:00:27 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

That oughta lift your spirits, Lance.

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In case y'all haven't noticed, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt haven't exactly been themselves in 2009. I mean, they haven't been terrible, but each has left a little to be desired. Zach Levine gives us the optimist and pessimist perspective on each in his blog post yesterday. More than their diminished performance this year, I'm worried about their attitudes towards their futures in baseball and the Astros in the immediate future. Maybe it's just that I'm used to Astro players keeping quiet for the most part, but Lance nor Roy have come out sounding excited about playing baseball. It's a grind when you're out of the race, and it's natural to let down when you have "nothing" to play for. Perhaps a free agent signing or strong performance by a youngster (or five) will lift the spirits of our longest tenured Astros?

Our minor league affiliates named their team MVPs, and I can't argue with the selections from AAA, AA or A. Round Rock chose Tommy Manzella, Drew Locke earned the honor in Corpus, and Koby Clemens was rewarded in Lancaster. The Lexington Legends' team MVP is Brian Pelligrini, but it's more than likely that a pitcher (Jordan Lyles) was truly the most valuable member of that squad.

RJ's twitter feed informs us that five Astros have made their major league debut this season: Bud Norris, Wilton Lopez, Sammy Gervacio, Tommy Manzella and Chris Johnson. This type of factoid is common for most teams, but for the Astros it's downright nutty! Taking these five, plus Felipe Paulino, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Wes Wright, Alberto Arias, and Yorman Bazardo into account, 2010 could be an extremely telling season in terms of whether or not this team is going to be competitive in 2011 and beyond.

The Astros may have lost last night, but Chris Johnson will always look back fondly on the game as the night he notched his first big league hit. Congratulations to Chris. Now Tommy Manzella needs to get his chance to do the same. Perhaps a Miggy at third base, Tommy at shortstop starting lineup is in order?

It's always fun when the big baseball websites take note of the successes of our minor leaguers, and Baseball Prospectus did just that on Wednesday in an article which analyzed the minor league leaders in various categories. Jon Gaston led the minors in HRs, and was given the usual assessment of being fortunate to play in a bandbox, and striking out too much. Koby Clemens apparently led the minor leagues in RBI with 123:

One of the bigger surprises of the year, Clemens hit .345/.419/.636 for the JetHawks, and while the ballpark and the top of the Lancaster lineup did wonders for his RBI total, this is at least some kind of step forward. He'll need to prove it's for real next year at Double-A, and his catching still needs a load of work, as in 66 games behind the plate he was charged with 18 passed balls while throwing out less than 30 percent of opposing basestealers.

Maybe he and Jason Castro can get together, and Koby can pick Jason's brain?

In their first World Cup game, the U.S. team lost to Venezuela in a slugfest, 13-9. Jason Castro managed to go hitless in five at bats, but was probably worn out from crouching so much. He looks swell in his Team USA uniform though:

Team USA faces host nation Germany tomorrow. Other high draft choices from 2008 playing on Team USA include Justin Smoak and Pedro Alvarez.

Remember when Dice K mattered? I barely do. He's coming back for the stretch run though...so take heart, Boston?

Paulino responds to Wade's ultimatum; Astros fall to Cubs

DyingQuail — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 21:21:43 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Hey Ed, do you like Apples?

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6IP, 7K, 2BB, 4H, 2R (both earned), 99 pitches (61 strikes). If Ed Wade was looking for a sign that Felipe Paulino wasn't going to go quietly into AAAA purgatory, he can't miss the one that Paulino made for him this afternoon. A truly masterful performance, even at the advance stat level: 10.5K/9, 3.5K:BB, 7.07K/100.

For the third straight day, however, it wasn't the pitching that didn't give the Astros an opportunity to compete, it was the dismal, anemic offense. On this nine game road trip the Astros mustered an average of 2.45 runs per game (22 runs, 9 games).

As far as the game's feel good story line, Aaron Boone played solid defense at 1B, with one spectacular play, but like his peers in the lineup, Boone was foiled by Lilly. Still, just getting to see Boone pretend to shield his eyes from the "bright light" and check his pulse in the dugout overshadows and oh-fer at the plate.

via www.fangraphs.com

Astros vs Cubs coverage ; Astros vs Cubs boxscore ; Bleed Cubbie Blue

Ricketts, Shark And (What Else?) Peavy News: Cubs vs. Astros Preview, Wednesday 9/2, 1:20 CT

Al — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:30:14 -0000

by Nam Y Huh - AP

Write your own caption. (And keep it clean.)

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Tom Ricketts was at last night's game. He shook hands with Lou and Koyie Hill, and I'm glad he got to see a solidly played win. Let there be many more of these. (Maybe we should get Ricketts to come to every game, if he isn't planning on doing that already.)

So while we prepare for what (we hope) is a series win over the Astros, here are a few baseball notes to pore over this morning:

If you think the Cubs are having a tough go at things, it can always be worse elswehere. Check out several other teams that have had losing years for a long time. And what Bill James has to say about why that happens.
From USA Today: Paul White on major leaguers with college degrees -- some with majors you might not have guessed.
Yet another Jeff-Samardzija-is-the-future article.
Gee, what a surprise: Jake Peavy might get shut down for the year. NOW are you glad the Cubs didn't trade the farm for him? And, Carlos Torres will start Thursday's game at Wrigley for the White Sox.
Some photos and a tour of Target Field, the Twins' new roofless home that will open next spring. It says here that the Twins are giving up a huge home-field advantage and will likely be playing in adverse weather conditions for at least April, and part of May.
37 years ago today, the Cubs' Milt Pappas threw a no-hitter, but came within one pitch of a perfect game. And he still can't stand the call plate umpire Bruce Froemming made that he felt robbed him of the perfecto.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ted Lilly Cubs	vs.	Felipe Paulino Astros

9-8	W-L	2-6
3.35	ERA	6.96
118	SO	58
29	BB	22
21	HR	13
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ted Lilly	9-8	22	22	0	0	0	0	142.1	129	58	53	21	29	118	3.35	1.11

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Felipe Paulino	2-6	17	11	0	0	0	1	64.2	89	55	50	13	22	58	6.96	1.72

Felipe Paulino started the year in Houston's rotation and made three starts, all of which were decent. Then, for some reason, Cecil Cooper sent him to the bullpen. After three relief appearances -- one of which was a horrendous 0.2 inning, 4 ER outing against the Cubs on May 7, which included a HR by Alfonso Soriano -- he was back in the rotation. That turned out, um, badly -- seven starts, 7.59 ERA. Back in the pen he went; this is his first start since August 4.

Ted Lilly has won nine games this year. Three of them are vs. the Astros; he gave up four homers to them in Houston in his first start of the year on April 8, but has allowed only 17 HR in his 21 other starts, and overall this year is 3-0, 3.06 vs. Houston. This will be his first start vs. the Astros in Chicago in 2009; the three others were all in Houston. Astros hitters are hitting .195 (43-for-221) vs. Ted.

The Cubs and Astros are cable-only today, CSN Chicago and FSN Houston. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Astros site The Crawfish Boxes.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 2:15 pm, 3:15 pm and 4 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Tuesday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:00:19 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Mikey likes his batting helmet, don't you Mikey?

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It must be Michael Bourn month over at Fangraphs, because the site has a feature story about Bourn for the second time in just over a week. The article isn't much different than the analysis that was done concerning the Bourn/Lidge trade of 2007, and again the Ichiro related BABIP comparison. One point is unavoidably true though: he is our best, most cost effective offensive player (including Hunter Pence, IMHO).

Zach Levine states the obvious, but is as usual on point when he posits that neither the Astros offense nor pitching fared particularly well while he was in Austin following the Express. A .555 OPS over the course of a week is definitely lousy, small sample size or not. Hot starts by Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence have subsided, and both are on pace to finish right around where they did in 2008. Especially alarming is the slide of Pence, who looked to be much improved in 2009 but has succumbed to many of his erratic, over swinging, topping the ball all too much ways of 2008.

Lance Berkman didn't hit a homerun in the month of August, and ESPN's Jason Grey speculates that it has something to do with his calf...

David Coleman, over at his blog Minor Musings, profiles Astro farmhand Ross Seaton. While Seaton's below league average strikeout totals worries David a bit, he is generally optimistic about the young righthander:

I think the evidence is that he's getting better, though. His G/F ratio is climbing closer to 1.00 each month and he has thrown better since Lexington started using six starters with the addition of David Duncan to the rotation.

Overall a nice analysis by Mr. Coleman. We Astros fans are lucky to have Farm Stros and Coleman on board to dig through the numbers and provide a more than competent take on our minor league clubs.

Speaking of the minors, CC Hooks outfielder Drew Locke, and SS Wladimir Sutil have been named to the 2009 Texas League Post Season All Star Team. Whew. Based on how long the honor is, I'm sure it's quite a feather to put in one's cap. Locke for one has been on fire all season, hitting .446 with runners in scoring position and two outs since the All Star Break. Congrats to both players.

Unfortunately for Drew, his season has been cut short prematurely, due to a HBP which broke his left hand. Obviously a very disappointing way to finish a stellar summer for Locke. He'll be in a cast for 6-8 weeks. No winter ball most likely for the 26 year old outfielder.

Completing the minor league tour, John Sickles of MinorLeagueBall, reviews his Top 20 Astros Prospects list that he posted before the season began. In general:

-Jordan Lyles after reading as much as I have about prospects is seen as an up and comer for sure. He has all the tools and composure a young pitcher could have in his first year of pro ball.

-Jason Castro has leveled off as a CC Hook, but his defense, game calling and plate discipline should play well in the bigs even if he never develops the sort of power he would need to be an elite offensive catcher.

-Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris have flashed their potential at various times this season, and will have more chances to do so. Like clack has noted since Day 1, Norris' innings have piled up this season, and the team may be better off easing off the gas for the last thirty games or so of the season. Paulino has the kind of solid peripheral stats that cause me to be much more optimistic than pessimistic towards his development. Note the high BABIP, high HR/FB, etc. He hasn't gotten many breaks, and has shown that he still needs time to develop. He has a really good slider, and if he refines that fastball, look out.

-Sammy Gervacio has done well as a major leaguer, while Chia Jen Lo has progressed nicely as a CC Hook.

Towards the bottom end of the system, there are a lot of raw, athlete types, and the 2009 draft class gets the early seal of approval from Sickles and the commenters on his article. It will be fun to watch some of these guys in the AFL, that's for sure.

Speculation doesn't become us, I hope, but here is Deadspin's take on the Pitchtipgate. The phrase "clubhouse McCarthyism" is a keeper for sure.

Building a team the Astros way, and building a team the smart way

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

An entire outfield of 2009 free agents could be assembled, make less money than Carlos combined and out produce him dramatically.

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The Astros are going to have to indulge in the free agent market of 2010 in order to field a competitive team next season. I don't think that anyone here would try to argue that point. How and who are the two questions that go along with free agent signings, as in how much to spend, and who to sign?

Well, it's still too early to really get down to the nitty gritty of things, but what we can do is look back and identify bargains and trends in the marketplace. Sky Andrecheck of Baseball Analysts did just that in a recent post which looked at the free agent class of 2009 and built a team from those players. He describes his experiment much better than I ever could, but suffice it to say, bargains do exist.

Who did he select to be a part of the club?

Catchers: Gregg Zaun, David Ross

Infielders: Wes Helms, Felipe Lopez, Casey Blake, Juan Uribe Craig Counsell

Total $ spent: $15.3 million, Total WAR: 13.1

Outfielders/DH: Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, Scott Podsednik, Raul Ibanez

Total $ spent: $35 million, Total WAR: 23.6

Starting Pitchers: Mike Hampton, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Randy Wolf, CC Sabathia

Total $ spent: $78.8 million, Total WAR: 35.3

That club is good for a 71-49 record through 120 games, solid enough for a playoff spot. Bargains are easier to find offensively than in pitching, so the Sabathia signing was by leaps and bounds the most outlandish contract he chose to take on.

Painfully, let's determine the Astros' team WAR, or at least a rough approximation of it.

Offensively: The entire Astros' offense (not counting the negative values that most of our pitchers/bench has contributed) is good for a WAR of 15.1. Unlike the all free agent team, the Astros offense has gotten 43% of its output from two players: Lance Berkman and Michael Bourn.

Sort of a "fun" sidenote: Pudge's WAR in total is .8, while his Astro-WAR is .6. He's added .2 WAR since joining the Rangers....less than 2 weeks ago.

Pitching: Just counting our starting pitchers' contributions, including the negative WARs for Brandon Backe and Felipe Paulino, the staff WAR is 7.5. Add it all up, and the Astros have a 22.6 team WAR, 12.7 wins less than Andrecheck's fictitious club. Drayton McLane has also spent roughly $20 million more on the players who I used in this article, not counting fairly large contracts for relievers like LaTroy Hawkins, Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak, and bench players like Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad.

I come to the same conclusion as Andrecheck does: it's possible to build a playoff contender just in free agency, but it's too difficult without being able to look back on things. There are plenty of ways to be successful in MLB, but it's becoming obvious that the Astros aren't doing any of them.