SB Nation - Jose Rodriguez

Yovani and Wandy: What the Astros and Brewers can expect tonight

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 20 May 2009 08:00:18 -0000

7 months ago: Houston Astros starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez (51) delivers to the plate in the first inning against the San Diego Padres during baseball game Friday, May 8, 2009 in Houston.(AP Photo/Bob Levey)

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Starting pitchers are like goalies in hockey, or quarterbacks in football: they are often times the headlining matchup going into games. The blame or credit for a win/loss befalls these athletes moreso than any other player. Hell, what other athlete in a team sport gets a win-loss record? So when pitchers like Yovani Gallardo and Wandy Rodriguez compete against one another, it bears taking a look at more in an in depth fashion.

For Milwaukee, Yovani Gallardo has made a seamless transition from young starter to young starter cum pitching staff ace. There are a lot of variables for every team when a season begins, but few teams had the obvious questions that Milwaukee did. How the team would cope without Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia was extremely important to whether or not the Berwers could remain competitive. So far, so very good. Gallardo has upped his K production and excelled in limiting walks- a particularly difficult task for young starting pitchers. Our own starting pitchers could stand to learn from Gallardo and his ground ball inducing ways.

In his last start against the Astros, Gallardo pitched a complete game allowing two runs and striking out seven. He mixed a good fastball with movement with a change up and curveball that were around the strikezone more times than not:

Throwing that kind of ratio of balls:strikes in a game gives the pitcher a decided advantage over hitters. Gallardo only started off ten Astros with a ball on April 29th, re-inforcing a strength of his: getting ahead of hitters and limiting hard hit balls.

Wandy Rodriguez has statistically been very similar to Gallardo so far this season. He too has limited the fly ball, and struck out a high rate of batters. Where he has excelled past the likes of Yovani is in his control, though that is to be expected given Wandy's advanced age and experience. A sort of anomaly that has worked to Wandy's advantage is the fact that he hasn't allowed a home run yet this season, despite having a higher FB% this season compared to last.

Against San Diego on May 8th, Wandy was spectacular in throwing eight shutout innings, allowing five hits and striking out seven. What was particularly impressive was the fact that of his 116 total pitches thrown, 82 were strikes. That 82:34 ratio if nothing else meant that he was going after a team of struggling hitters:

Both Milwaukee and Houston began the season with significant pitching questions. So far, each club has addressed their issues to an extent. While Milwaukee has seen their whole rotation step their games up, the Astros have yet to see that sort of across the board uptick in performance. Each club's youngest starter has pitched extremely well, ensuring that at least once every five days their club is competitive.

Reds Make Like Kelly Rowland, Post-Destiny's Child, Have Very Few Hits in Houston

Brendanukkah — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 01:46:05 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

"Alright fine, I'll be an Astro. But my name is Carlos." "Carlos the Astro?" "Yeah, you got a problem with that, Gorthon?" (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Carlos Lee. Because there aren't any AP pictures of Wandy Rodriguez (vampire?). The Reds had no answer for El Caballo tonight, who went 3-3 with a walk, 1 RBI and 2 runs scored before being lifted for a defensive replacement in the 8th. Also, Wandy Wanding Rodriguez pitched seven innings of shutout baseball, allowing only two hits and two walks while striking out 10 (three of which were courtesy of Mr. Laynce Nix).

Key Plays

The Astros got to Harang early with four straight singles in the first inning from Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, and Geoff Blum. The 'Stros showed no respect for Ramon Hernandez's arm, also swiping two bases.
The Astros HAVOC'd their way to a run in the fifth when Michael Bourn singled to lead off the inning, stole second, then scored on Carlos Lee's double.
In the 7th inning, Harang began to lose his cool. He plunked Miguel Tejada, then walked Lance Berkman on four straight balls. Dusty relieved him with Jared Burton and a frustrated Harang started throwing things around in the dugout. He couldn't have been happy to see Burton walk Lee, then give up doubles to Geoff Blum and Pudge Rodriguez, and a single to Darin Erstad, allowing four runs in the inning.
When the Reds feebly attempted a rally in the 8th with a Ramon Hernandez walk, Alex Gonzalez immediately snuffed it out by grounding into a double play.

The Win Probability graph is depressing. It's here at FanGraphs if you want to see it.

Other Notes

Normal Reds-killer Lance Berkman was held hitless, though he did score a run in the 7th after Harang walked him.
Somewhat shockingly, Ramon Hernandez had thrown out 44% of attempted base stealers before this game, but Houston swiped three bags against him tonight. Now he's down to throwing out 33%.
Brandon Phillips is 1-16 on this road trip and his batting average is down to .200.
Jeff Keppinger did not play against his former teammates. He was a late scratch with a bad back.
President George H.W. Bush and Barbara Bush were in attendance, witnessing the Reds' Thousand Points of Suck.

Final - 4.18.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston Astros	2	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	X	7

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Seven Series in Seven Days: Kansas City Royals @ Houston

DyingQuail — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 06:20:01 -0000

As HLP mentioned yesterday, the Astros second half is not built favorably for a second half surge, as is the norm in Houston for the last few years. So today's series focuses on a the latter part of that first half schedule against a perennial cellar-dweller, but one that lives and breathes in the AL. Like it or not, the AL has owned the NL for the last few years in inter-league play it is the main reason you see such a plethora of 90+ win teams in the AL. For the Astros to finish off their first half, and the second to last inter-league series, with a series win of the Royals, it would be a great thing.

So who is standing in the way of making this happen? Well, if you want the long winded fan perspective on how the Royals could be great, click here. Otherwise, I'll take a gander at their roster and see how it shapes up—not too many people as I see it.

Pitching

As far as their pitching goes, the Astros need to avoid facing off against Zack Greinke, who is a phenomenally underrated fantasy sleeper. At just twenty five years of age, Greinke has a bright future ahead of him. CHONE projects him to post a near 3.00 K:BB and dominant 7.82 K/9; yes those are Oswaltian numbers.

Gil Meche will be the other name to avoid. The thirty year old veteran is supposed sport solid peripherals (7.21 K/9 and a 2.26 K:BB) and is the equivalent, loosely, to our Wandy.

After that, the rotation is primed for a beating or two. It's impossible to say where we'll be or where they'll be in their rotation, but a few over-matches could go a long way towards ensuring strong probabilities in our favor here.

Oh, they also have some phenomenal closer...Soria something or another.

Hitting

The Royals' offense is where they really fall apart. Anchored by a nucleus of Alex Gordon (3B) and Billy Butler (DH/1B), their aren't lot of bright spots in the line up besides Mike Aviles (SS), who is projected, by PECOTA, to OPS .716. When your third best hitter is projected to be your light hitting SS, you're in for trouble. Hopefully, even our back end guys can produce solid outings against the Royals. Seeing Coco Crisp could be a fun reason to go the ball park, though.

Conclusion

While this isn't a sexy series, it's a series that can provide a needed boost to finish out June, and inter-league with a few more W's.

Seven Series in Seven Days: Chicago Cubs at Astros, April 6-8

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 14:34:45 -0000

Today is the day! It occurred to me that today would be a more appropriate day to run this preview than when I posted it last week...

Our full schedule is heavily backloaded- a hot start appears to be a pre requisite to any hopes of seeing October baseball..or at least being relevant in September. Of the first seven series the Astros play, six will be against division opponents. In total, the month of April will see our boys take on each of the other five NL Central teams, including the Cincinnati Reds seven times. We start our look, however, with the team that has won back to back NL Central titles, the Chicago Cubs.

This will be a test right off the bat. Chicago fans travel (too) well, meaning that the tenth anniversary celebration for Minute Maid Park will be full of nasally accents and snowbirds traveling to Houston from all points sandy/beachy. It'll be a battle for noise supremacy, but Astros fans have become more vocal and opinionated over the years so it should be a superb atmosphere.

Opening Day will feature a matchup of two stud starting pitchers- Carlos Zambrano and Roy Oswalt. In his career, Zambrano is 12-7 against Houston, with a 2.70 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 166.2 innings of work. Included in that performance is his infamous no hitter on the "road" against the Astros last season. He has had injury concerns swirling around him this off season, but Big Z always seems to pitch well against Houston.

Roy O is 12-11 with a 3.88 ERA against Chicago with 133 strikeouts in 160.1 innings pitched. He will be making his seventh consecutive Opening Day start for the Astros.

The next longest Opening Day streak for the Astros belongs to Lance Berkman, whose health will be one of those aforementioned questions. Name the stat and Berkman tops the Astros in it: batting runs above average, VORP, OBP, OPS, RBI and 2B, the loss of Berkman will hurt the Astros tremendously. The loss will be an even more acute pain since the departure of Aaron Boone to heart surgery.

Chicago's only weakness in my eyes- baserunning, isn't even a true weakness. Their team features players who all had above average OBP's in 2008:

Alfonso Soriano	.344
Ryan Theriot	.387
Derrek Lee	.361
Milton Bradley	.436
Aramis Ramirez	.380
Mike Fontenot	.395
Kosuke Fukudome	.359
Geovany Soto	.364

Astro pitchers will not have a break this first series. Presumably after Roy, Wandy Rodriguez and Mike Hampton will start for Houston, with Rich Harden and Ryan Dempster starting the final two for the Cubs. This has been a nip and tuck series recently, with the Astros winning the season series last season 9-8, although we were outscored 78-60 (pythagorean record be damned!)

No better way to start off the season than to beat the best, Chicago was that last year in the Central. No rest for the weary, as a road visit to St. Louis follows the series against the Cubs. A fast start to the season hasn't been the Astros mode of operation, but it may have to be in 2009.