SB Nation - Mike Lincoln

Heroes of the Zeros: The Bullpen

Slyde — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:00:28 -0000

As we continue our vote on the Reds All Decade Team, we look today at the bullpen. The Reds bullpen was a strength in the early aughts, but it also had some very lean periods in the middle of the decade before rebounding a bit the last two seasons. Below you will see the 28 relievers who managed to pitch 60 or more games out of the bullpen for the Reds between 2000 and 2009. The survey below will have you choose a closer, 2 right-handed relievers, 2 left-handed relievers, and 2 other relievers of your choice. Please be careful not to choose a pitcher for more than one spot as I will only count a single vote for that player.

One note before you vote, I didn't feel like doing the extra work it would take to separate a pitcher's relief appearances from his starts, so some of the stats below include starts as well as relief appearances. This mainly only affects Danny Graves (30 GS), Chris Reitsma (53 GS), and Matt Belisle (43 GS) with a couple other pitchers having a handful of starts in their numbers. Please try to take that into account when considering a player as best you can. Voting can be done after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	ERA	ERA+	FIP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
Jeremy Affeldt	2008	74	1	1	.500	0	78.1	3.33	133	3.72	.260	.323	.410	.733	9.19	2.87	1.03
Matt Belisle	2003-2008	132	16	22	.421	1	341.2	5.06	89	4.54	.302	.351	.472	.823	6.06	2.53	1.24
Bill Bray	2006-2008	111	7	6	.538	3	89.0	3.84	118	3.40	.278	.348	.433	.780	9.20	3.84	0.81
Jim Brower	2001-2002	68	9	10	.474	1	168.2	3.95	114	4.49	.250	.328	.406	.734	6.30	3.74	1.01
Jared Burton	2007-2009	154	10	3	.769	0	161.0	3.47	128	3.73	.238	.322	.368	.690	7.77	3.91	0.73
Todd Coffey	2005-2008	213	12	9	.571	9	206.1	4.62	98	4.58	.311	.366	.476	.842	5.98	2.75	1.22
Francisco Cordero	2008-2009	140	7	10	.412	73	137.0	2.76	158	3.42	.238	.329	.327	.656	8.93	4.47	0.53
Jon Coutlangus	2007	64	4	2	.667	0	41.0	4.39	105	4.57	.250	.373	.362	.735	8.34	5.93	0.66
Danny Graves	2000-2005	318	29	35	.453	147	526.0	4.16	105	4.62	.279	.331	.451	.782	4.59	2.58	1.16
Daniel Ray Herrera	2008-2009	77	4	4	.500	0	69.0	3.52	122	4.00	.283	.354	.419	.772	6.78	3.52	0.78
Mike Lincoln	2008-2009	83	3	6	.333	0	93.1	5.40	81	5.66	.269	.357	.465	.822	6.36	4.15	1.64
Gary Majewski	2006-2008	88	2	6	.250	0	78.0	7.38	61	4.73	.388	.429	.562	.992	5.31	2.54	1.15
Nick Masset	2008-2009	84	6	1	.857	0	93.1	2.31	186	3.65	.213	.276	.334	.610	7.81	2.80	0.87
Hector Mercado	2000-2001	68	3	2	.600	0	67.0	4.16	111	4.26	.262	.354	.418	.772	9.67	5.10	1.07
Kent Mercker	2003-2008	179	5	4	.556	5	142.0	3.36	129	4.72	.256	.336	.447	.783	6.91	3.99	1.27
Phil Norton	2003-2004	86	2	5	.286	0	80.1	4.59	92	4.10	.263	.359	.380	.740	6.16	4.93	0.56
Brian Reith	2001-2004	73	4	12	.250	1	127.2	5.92	73	6.16	.292	.381	.542	.923	5.99	5.01	1.83
Chris Reitsma	2001-2003	125	22	32	.407	12	404.1	4.52	97	4.57	.280	.329	.456	.785	5.19	2.52	1.20
Dennys Reyes	2000-2001	97	4	7	.364	0	96.2	4.75	98	4.74	.254	.363	.395	.757	8.19	5.96	0.93
Arthur Rhodes	2009	66	1	1	.500	0	53.1	2.53	169	3.14	.198	.276	.299	.576	8.10	3.38	0.51
John Riedling	2000-2004	200	13	12	.520	3	274.1	4.13	104	4.37	.256	.345	.385	.730	5.97	4.43	0.69
Brian Shackelford	2005-2006	63	2	0	1.000	0	46.0	4.11	107	5.20	.229	.333	.388	.722	6.26	3.72	1.17
Mike Stanton	2007	69	1	3	.250	0	57.2	5.93	78	4.26	.315	.374	.462	.836	6.24	2.81	0.94
Scott Sullivan	2000-2003	279	22	12	.647	4	338.0	4.05	111	4.21	.246	.326	.408	.734	7.96	3.49	1.14
Ryan Wagner	2003-2005	108	8	4	.667	0	119.0	4.69	90	4.38	.274	.354	.410	.764	7.64	4.24	0.98
David Weathers	2005-2009	325	20	23	.465	61	336.1	3.56	126	4.37	.239	.317	.390	.707	6.21	3.67	0.96
Gabe White	2000-2004	137	10	3	.769	1	128.2	4.34	98	4.25	.256	.289	.467	.756	6.92	1.54	1.47
Scott Williamson	2000-2003	155	13	15	.464	35	229.0	3.14	143	3.53	.209	.326	.329	.655	10.73	5.42	0.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

Reds Have Some Work to Do with the 40-man Roster

Slyde — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:28:28 -0000

Travis Wood (Photo by BubbaFan)

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When the season ended, the Reds had a full 40-man roster plus 4 players on the 60-day DL who did not count toward the 40-man roster. In the next couple of weeks those 4 players (Mike Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar) will lose their 60-day status and will have to be moved back to the 40-man or put through waivers. As far as I can tell, the only player on the roster who is a straight up free agent at the end of the season is Kip Wells. The only contract option the Reds have to consider this off-season is Ramon Hernandez's $8.5 million option, which one would think will be turned down. So, that opens up 2 roster spots, likely for Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln (since the Reds still owe him $2.5 million). Every other player appears to be under contract or under control because of Major League service time So, what do they do with the remaining two players, Castillo and Richar?

Before we figure that out, let's throw another wrench into the mess: The Rule 5 Draft. The Reds have several players in the minors who could be available for the Rule 5 Draft in December if they are not protected on the 40-man roster before the end of November. According to Wikipedia, here are the rules for eligibility:

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Basically, this means that any players that were drafted or signed at the age of 19 or older in 2006 are eligible for the draft, and anyone younger than that must have been signed in 2005 or earlier. Who does that give us?

Well, the list of eligible players in the organization is actually quite long, but not every player is at risk of being drafted because of their skill or performance (remember, rule 5 draftees have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season). Some of the names though are obvious keepers. Chris Heisey, Chris Valaika, and Travis Wood will likely be protected because of their prospect status. There are a couple of other names that could potentially get drafted if the Reds don't protect them as well. Someone like Daniel Dorn may have enough pop in his bat to sit on a team's bench all year as a left-handed pinch hitter. Enerio Del Rosario moved up 3 levels last year and posted a 1.68 ERA for the season. He's not really a power pitcher, which is typically the type of pitcher that gets drafted in the rule 5, but his control was outstanding last year and that may draw some eyes his way.

The Reds can't protect everyone, so they are going to have to make some choices. There is little doubt for me that they will find spots for Heisey, Valaika, and Wood. The question is, do they hold on to Castillo and Richar? Will they feel it necessary to protect any other minor leaguers such as Dorn or Del Rosario? And who do they drop? I'll put the 40-man roster after the jump. Let's hear who you think should stay and who should clear out some space.

**Reds Current 40-man roster**
Bronson Arroyo Homer Bailey Bill Bray Jared Burton Francisco Cordero Johnny Cueto Carlos Fisher Aaron Harang Daniel Ray Herrera Sam LeCure Justin Lehr	Mike Lincoln Matt Maloney Nick Masset Micah Owings Ramon Ramirez Arthur Rhodes Daryl Thompson Pedro Viola Edinson Volquez Kip Wells# Wilkin Castillo **	Ryan Hanigan Ramon Hernandez # Corky Miller Craig Tatum Yonder Alonso Kevin Barker Juan Francisco Paul Janish Brandon Phillips Danny Richar ** Scott Rolen	Adam Rosales Drew Sutton Joey Votto Wladimir Balentien Jay Bruce Chris Dickerson Jonny Gomes Darnell McDonald Laynce Nix Drew Stubbs Willy Taveras

#-Free Agent; **-60-day DL

Are These the Guys We Wanted?

Jesse — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:01:00 -0000

Every year we have a little wish-list of guys we hope the organization targets. Here are a select few who garnered interest from Twinkie Town or from the Twins organization. In no particular order...

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Juan Cruz	3-4	46	0	0	0	2	4	50.1	46	34	32	6	29	38	5.72	1.49

He's always been a bit of a loose cannon, but at least he was striking out people with such regularity and consistency that he could get himself out of as much trouble as he got himself into. This year the strikeout rate was nearly cut in half, his LOB& dropped from 83.6% in 2007 to a miserable 62.1% this season. He was around the strike zone more often, hitters stopped swinging at anything he threw outside of the strike zone and contact was way up. It was a bad season for Cruz, and suffice it to say I'm glad the Twins didn't gamble here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

I think we pretty much got what we expected out of Joe. He was a good defender when he was on the field (15.9 UZR/150), and was a power bat you had to show some respect if you were a pitcher who survived the first half of the Minnesota batting order. Too bad he wasn't around for the post-season, we could have used him.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Hudson	149	551	74	156	35	6	9	62	62	99	8	1	.283	.357	.417

Hot start, and that led to a pretty decent season for the 32-year old second baseman. The Dodgers phased him out toward the end of the season. His defense was better than last year, but was still just south of average if we go by his -2.9 UZR/150. His $3.38 million base salary wasn't bad, but if he signed for that to play with the Dodgers then I'm sure the Twins would have had to pony up a bit more. His incentives made it possible for the year to be worth a full $10 million, all based around plate appearances: $150K for reaching both the 150 and 175 plate appearance mark; $200 K for every 25 plate appearances from 200 - 300; $250 K for every 25 from 325 - 575; $10,000 for EVERY SINGLE plate appearance from 576 - 632. How many PA's did he have this year? 631.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Russ Springer	0-1	48	0	0	0	0	1	41.2	52	20	19	5	14	47	4.10	1.58

Great walk and strikeout rates, but he was an extreme fly-ball pitcher again this year and allowed a bunch of homers as a result--19 is enough for a guy who pitches 200 innings, much less 41.2. His breaking balls and off-speed pitches were almost non-existant, making almost exclusively a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and cutter. Lots of good peripherals for Springer though, and so even though he'll be 41 in November he should still get some interest in the coming months.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jarrod Washburn Mariners Tigers	8-6 1-3	20 8	20 8	1 0	1 0	0 0	0 0	133.0 43.0	109 51	42 35	39 35	11 12	33 16	79 21	2.64 7.33	1.07 1.56

W-L

SHO

ERA

WHIP

2009 - Jarrod Washburn

Mariners

Tigers

8-6

1-3

133.0

43.0

109

2.64

7.33

1.07

1.56

There were a lot, and I mean a LOT of rumors tying Washburn to the Twins last winter. As good as he was with the Mariners this season, seeing how horrendous he was in his short stint with the Tigers just confirms exactly how much Minnesota didn't need him around. He may have lucked the Twins into an extra win or two early in the season, but he would have given them right back at the end of the year when it counted: barely five inning a start, almost as many runs as he'd had in three times the innings, a disgusting number of homers...no, thank you.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ty Wigginton	122	410	44	112	19	0	11	41	23	57	1	2	.273	.314	.400

The walks dipped slightly after a career year in 2008, but it was the power that literally just disappeared. He couldn't hit fastballs, which is never good, but he wasn't really having success no matter which pitch type he'd swing at. Wigginton's overall contact percentage was constant, and he was even swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, but he was making more contact on the ones he did swing at. Which, probably, meant easier outs. It looks like Wigginton's pitch selection just disappeared this year, along with his power, and along with a little bit of bad luck (or maybe just not as much luck as he had last year) his numbers took a major dip. He's a guy I really wanted the Twins to go after.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Nomar Garciaparra	65	160	17	45	8	0	3	16	8	28	2	0	.281	.314	.388

This could be the end for Nomar. I did entertain the idea of picking him up for a bench option, as a guy who could start as a DH versus southpaws while playing a couple innings at third here and there. Another one of my crackpot ideas, clearly.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Casey Blake	139	485	84	136	25	6	18	79	63	116	3	4	.280	.363	.468

Knowing what we know now, seeing how decent of a year Blake had, would you sign him to the deal the Dodgers did? I said no when it happened, and in spite of his good year I wouldn't change my answer. Three years plus an option in 2012, that at a minimum will pay out $17.5 million dollars including '12's buyout...and in reality it's still probably safe to say that Minnesota would have had to beat that offer somehow land Blake in a Twins uniform.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Mike Lincoln	1-1	19	0	0	0	0	0	23.0	29	21	21	7	19	9	8.22	2.09

His name came up just before the Winter Meetings kicked up. Not good, ladies and gents, not good.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Garrett Atkins	126	354	37	80	12	1	9	48	41	58	0	0	.226	.308	.342

Definitely dodged a bullet here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Adrian Beltre	111	449	54	119	27	0	8	44	19	74	13	2	.265	.304	.379

No doubt this was a bad, bad year for Adrian, but considering his prowess with the glove (14.7 UZR/150) I can still see the Twins showing some interest. He'll be 31 next season, so a breakout season is likely out of the cards but I do believe he could quite easily be a moderately productive offensive third baseman. But considering how much the Twins would have had to give up to get him last winter, it's a good thing they didn't work it out.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Miguel Tejada	158	635	83	199	46	1	14	86	19	48	5	2	.313	.340	.455

I'm not sure Tejada would have had this good of a season in the American League, but no doubt 46 doubles is a fantastic number and slightly off-sets his steady but definitely suppressed power numbers over the last few years. Still, the reason the Twins didn't continue to pursue him during the Winter Meetings was because of what the Astros, allegedly, were asking for in return. And I know that last winter, given the option between Tejada and Crede for third base, I'd have gone with Crede.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera Athletics Twins	101 59	414 242	41 42	116 70	23 13	0 3	4 5	41 36	25 11	39 32	11 2	4 0	.280 .289	.318 .313	.365 .430

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Orlando Cabrera

Athletics

Twins

101

414

242

116

.280

.289

.318

.313

.365

.430

O-Cab finished strong with the Twins. Having him all season would have been better than who we had on board, and we found out the kind of fire, energy and leadership he can bring to a team. He's someone guys like Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla can look up to as a leader. My hesitation in wanting him back in 2010 has to deal with A) how much money he wants and B) how much worse his range can get. But yes, this is a guy that, in hindsight, would have been a good addition. At the same time I know that had the Twins brought him in last winter, I'd be wondering why they didn't try for someone better. Just goes to show you how perspective can change your mind.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jack Wilson Pirates Mariners	75 31	266 107	26 11	71 24	18 5	1 0	4 1	31 8	15 6	31 17	2 1	1 0	.267 .224	.304 .263	.387 .299

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Jack Wilson

Pirates

Mariners

266

107

.267

.224

.304

.263

.387

.299

Very good defense at shortstop (15.3 UZR/150), but miserable offense. He's the kind of guy that, with a better offense around him or more depth off the bench, I'd be happy to have as a starter. I didn't want him last season, but knowing what I know now I think I probably could have dealt with what he brings to the table. Middle infield talent was clearly an issue this season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark DeRosa Indians Cardinals	71 68	278 237	47 31	75 54	13 10	0 1	13 10	50 28	29 18	63 58	1 2	1 1	.270 .228	.342 .291	.457 .405

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Mark DeRosa

Indians

Cardinals

278

237

.270

.228

.342

.291

.457

.405

Would DeRose continued to have a good season had he spent an entire season in the American League? Who knows, but considering Cleveland got him for a song I'm still shocked the Twins didn't move on him. Maybe they just didn't like him for one reason or another, but I was a fan. No doubt he'd have spent his whole season in Minnesota had be been healthy.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kevin Kouzmanoff	141	529	50	135	31	1	18	88	27	106	1	0	.255	.302	.420

Quite a bit of chatter about Kouz around the Winter Meetings, and I know some people were fans. I wasn't. His defense wasn't bad at third this year, but offensively he's a guy like Crede--pop but no real on-base skills.

Is there anyone that I've missed? Just a little nostalgic look at last year's off-season, making me wonder what does this one have in store? I'm thinking...well, I'm thinking something to do with one of the best-hitting catchers of all time.

I'll catch you all later.

Injuries Have Taken a Big Bite Out of the Reds This Season

Slyde — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:30:19 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Willy Taveras has been listed as day-to-day three different times this season, but "luckily" he hasn't landed on the DL. Chris Dickerson has not been so lucky.

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I don't like to use injuries as an excuse. Every team faces some injuries every season and the fact is this team is bad. They'd be bad even if everybody had been healthy. Maybe they wouldn't be as bad, but they are not winning anything with their current roster construction. I imagine if the majority of the roster had stayed healthy, they'd probably be pushing .500 at best.

That's not to say that the injuries haven't been brutal. I'm not sure exactly how this compares to past seasons numerically, but the Reds have been battered by injuries all year long. By my estimate, they have lost 538 days on the big league roster for players listed as day-to-day or on the disabled list. This isn't a completely accurate representation though since Wilkin Castillo and Danny Richar were brought up just a few days before getting injured. It's hard to count their missing days as doing much harm to the roster. Still, 17 players from the Opening Day roster have missed a combined 441 days to injury. It's hard for any team to recover from such a string of injuries, not to mention one that wasn't particularly good to begin with.

Probably the worst outcome of these injuries though is that it has prevented the brass from truly evaluating the team to identify the holes on the roster. I fully expect to hear excuses in the off-season that Willy Taveras or Alex Gonzalez was never truly healthy, but with no mention of the fact that neither player has been particularly healthy over the last 3 seasons.

If anything, that is what these injuries have done to the season - created a crap excuse. Well that, and taken Edinson Volquez out of the 2010 equation. Stupid injuries.

Special thanks to Fantasy Pitch Fx's Injury Tool for making the data available and reasonably easy to compile. After the jump I have a complete list of days lost to injury for the Reds in 2009.

2009 Reds Days Lost to Injury
(DTD = Day to Day, DL = Disabled List)
Player	DTD	DL	Current
Ryan Hanigan	6	0
Joey Votto	10	24
Brandon Phillips	7	0
Alex Gonzalez	11	35
Edwin Encarnacion	0	66
Laynce Nix	3	0
Willy Taveras	12	0
Jay Bruce	0	30	+
Ramon Hernandez	0	23	+
Chris Dickerson	5	15	+
Scott Rolen	6	0	+
Danny Richar	0	39	+
Wilkin Castillo	0	52	+
Micah Owings	0	16	+
Bronson Arroyo	3	0
Johnny Cueto	1	0	+
Edinson Volquez	0	85	+
Mike Lincoln	0	59
Jared Burton	0	15
Nick Masset	0	15
TOTAL	64	474	9

Cali is where they put they mack down: Reds lose, let's say.... 9-3.

Brendanukkah — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 05:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Manos, Hands of Fate meets the Joe-ggernaut, the irresistable force. Guess who won? (AP Photo/Gus Ruelas)

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I'm going to bed, so I'm giving my best guess for the final score.

Joe Nuxhall Honorary Memorial Star of the Game

Andre Ethier. Ethier went at least 2-3 with a double and a home run, two runs scored and two RBI.

Key Plays

Things started off promisingly for the Reds. Jason Schmidt hadn't pitched in the majors since 2007, and it showed when he gave a long fly ball to Willy Taveras. It hit the top of the wall, and the review determined that it was a triple, robbing Willy of his second home run of the year. It became a moot point when Jerry Hairston hit a double. Joey Votto singled him to third, then got him home with some HAVOC. Votto stole second, and Russell Martin's errant throw allowed Cherry to score and Votto to advance to third. Votto scored on Brandon Phillips's fluky fly, and the Reds had a 3-0 lead after one.
That proved to be extremely short-lived, when Rafael Furcal led off with a bunt double. That's right. A bunt double. Russell Martin singled, and then after striking out Manny Ramirez on three pitches, Micah Owings gave up back to back doubles to Andre Ethier and Casey Blake to tie the game, and a single James Loney put them ahead to stay.
With two outs in the second, Russell Martin singled and Manny homered. On a night when Willy hits the top of the wall, you knew the balls would be flying.
Ethier homered to lead off the top of the fifth. A triple would have been preferable.
Then the Dodgers scored some more and the Reds didn't. Probably.

Other Notes

Ryan Hanigan threw out three baserunners, in three attempts. Russell Martin (twice) and Casey Blake, you are fools! Sweet Clyde, laugh derisively at them.
Willy Taveras has a seven game hitting streak.
Whoops, Joey Votto just scored. 7-4 final score?
Mike Lincoln thinks Jason Schmidt's two years off is nothing.
Encarnacion drove in another run to make things interesting! Yay! But he did it by grounding into a double play. Never mind.

top of the 4th	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	3	0	0	♦						5	4	0
Los Angeles Dodgers	4	2	0							7	7	1

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Joe Posnanski appreciates the contrast to the 1975 Reds. Cincinnati's offensive woes plumb new depths in 4-1 loss.

Brendanukkah — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 02:52:51 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Here is one of Luke Hochevar's pitches. He only threw 79 others. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Luke Hochevar. Former #1 pick Hochevar looked like Greg Maddux going against Cincinnati's terrible offense. He only needed 80 pitches to throw a complete game, giving up three hits and a run, striking out three and walking one.

Key Plays

Matt Maloney put himself in an early hole, giving up a solo homer to Billy Butler in the first inning.
After much futility, the Reds tied the score with a solo shot of their own, courtesy of Jonny Gomes's first dinger of the season.
Any shred of hope quickly vanished in the bottom of the inning when Alberto Collaspo was hit by a pitch and Miguel Olivo singled to put runners on first and second with no outs. Coco Crisp moved Collaspo to third on a ground out, and David DeJesus hit a well-placed single to score him.
In the sixth inning, Collaspo struck again, hitting a two-run homer right after Mark Teahen's single.

Crummy graph

Other Notes

Hochevar's pitches per inning: 1st - 4, 2nd - 7, 3rd - 8, 4th - 10, 5th - 15, 6th - 9, 7th - 12, 8th - 9, 9th - 4. Jay Bruce and Laynce Nix tied for longest at-bats, seeing six pitches one time each.
Willy Taveras is 0-28 and does not have a hit in the month of June.
Matt Maloney pitched decently, going another six innings and striking out five. He did give up two home runs.
Mike Lincoln pitched two scoreless innings in relief, the first time he's had two scoreless innings in an outing since May 6. His ERA is down below 9.00 for only the third time this year, the first being after he pitched 0.1 innings on Opening Day.
Game time was 2:12. These things fly when nobody's hitting.

Final - 6.12.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	0
Kansas City Royals	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	X	4	6	0
WP: Luke Hochevar (2 - 2) LP: Matt Maloney (0 - 1)

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There's a place I know you've been, here's a Wagon, get on in. Baby, why don't we? Baby, why don't we?

Brendanukkah — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 04:08:20 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Middle finger works just fine, bitches! (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Mike Lincoln. Every dog has his day, right? When Volquez went down, Lincoln came in on short notice and pitched three innings of one run baseball to keep us in the game. A man who is synonymous with "gasoline fire," he exceeded everyone's expectations. 3 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, and the win.

Key Plays

Colby Rasmus was a thorn in the side all day, and got off to an early start with a double in the first inning. Albert Pujols then hit a double to drive him in, because you're not going to fully contain Albert Pujols.
Edinson Volquez had to leave after the first inning with numbness in his ring and pinky finger. Red Reporter shat itself.
Lincoln gave up a solo jack to aforementioned ass-thorn Colby Rasmus in the third. The name of the game was damage control.
The Reds grew a set in the fourth inning and began to fight back. Chris Dickerson led off with a single, then stole second. Jay Bruce worked a walk and Ramon Hernandez singled to drive in Dickerson. Rick Ankiel threw wildly (gasp!) and both runners advanced a base, setting the stage for Laynce Nix's two run double, our Frisch's Big Boy Big Play of the Game.
The Reds tacked on another in the fifth, when Ryan Hanigan and Wilkin Castillo both singled, and Adam Rosales grittily hit a sacrifice fly to score Hanigan. 4-2, good guys.
The Reds got their final run in the seventh inning when Hanigan singled again. He advanced to third on a bunt and a force out, then Brandon Phillips drove him in with a single. Who says manufacturing is dead in the Midwest?
The Cardinals didn't quite die as whodat Joe Thurston doubled in the bottom of the seventh, and eventually scored on a passed ball.
The Cards sent the heart of their order up in the eighth, and Arthur Rhodes set them down, one, two, three. Colby Rasmus, Albert Pujols, and Chris Duncan - you are all officially bustas.
Coco Cordero slammed the door, allowing only a hit to Joe Thurston because apparently no one can get him out.

FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds' starter only lasted one inning, and the Cardinals still used as many pitchers (6) as Cincinnati.
Coco Cordero hasn't blown a save since July 21, 2008. He's converted 28 saves since then.
Jerry Hairston missed the game with flulike symptoms.
Four of the five Cincinnati runs came with two outs.
The Reds haven't lost on June 1 since 2005.

Final - 6.1.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	5	8	1
St. Louis Cardinals	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	7	1
WP: Mike Lincoln (1 - 0) SV: Francisco Cordero (14) LP: Todd Wellemeyer (5 - 5)

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Freaking Oswalt still doesn't get the loss!

Brendanukkah — Wed, 27 May 2009 03:51:51 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Laynce Nix Daynce Mix: All of Today's Greatest Hits (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Laynce Nix. Nix was the only Red with multiple hits in this game, going 2-4 with a home run. However, it was a real team effort tonight in a hard-fought win over the Astros and evil witch doctor Roy Oswalt. Wanna know how it happened?

Key Plays

After each team had opportunities with runners on and two outs, the Reds broke through in the third inning. Owings and Dickerson singled to lead off the inning, and Hairston bunted them over. Votto struck out, but cleanup hitter Ramon Hernandez came through with a single to center field to give the Reds a 2-0 lead.
Owings pitched well, but the wheels started to come off the second time through the order. In the fourth inning, Miguel Tejada doubled and Lance Berkman walked. Carlos Lee got his second infield hit of the series and Pudge Rodriguez double to score Tejada and Berkman, tying the game. Jeff Keppinger was intentionally walked to reload the bases, but that backfired when Edwin Maysonet got his first hit of the season to drive in Lee. Fortunately the inning came to a merciful end when Roy Oswalt hit into a double play.
Laynce Nix immediately homered to tie the game again. "Who are ya? Who are ya?"
In the sixth inning, Mike Lincoln came on in relief and immediately surrendered a home run to Keppinger and a single to Maysonet. Meanwhile, Drew Sutton struggled to tell whether he had mono or was just really bored. Danny Ray Herrera relieved Lincoln, and ended the inning on a botched baserunning effort by Tejada, who singled and headed to second assuming Maysonet had gone to the plate (he hadn't).
The Astros would rue their missed opportunity to add to their lead, but something like Keppinger's dinger would have been enough to sink the Reds in an Oswalt game. Not tonight! In the bottom of the sixth, Jay Bruce singled and Alex Gonzalez drew a two out walk. Oswalt then hit Adam Rosales with a pitch, and pinch hitter Jonny Gomes drew a bases loaded walk for the second game in a row. Tie game!
Content with his no decision, Oswalt left the game. His replacement, Tim Byrdak, walked Hairston and then surrendered a home run to Vottokin Skywalker in our Frisch's Big Boy Big Play of the Game.
On a night where we were conquering our demons, Coco Cordero got Reds-killer Lance Berkman to ground into a game ending double play when he represented the tying run.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Coco Cordero remains tied for the Major League lead with 13 saves.
Laynce Nix is now 5-9 with two home runs against Roy Oswalt.
Coming in to today, Mike Lincoln's ERA+ was 50. It's lower than that now.
The Reds no longer have a losing record at home (12-12).
Milwaukee lost, so the Reds are 1.5 games out of first place in the Central.
Roy Oswalt does not have a win against the Reds this year in three games started.
Jay Bruce's single broke an 0-15 skid.

Final - 5.26.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Houston Astros	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	4	11	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	2	1	0	1	2	0	X	6	8	0
WP: Nick Masset (2 - 0) SV: Francisco Cordero (13) LP: Tim Byrdak (0 - 1)

Complete Coverage >

D'oh! Indians scalp Reds 7-6

BK — Sun, 24 May 2009 04:24:43 -0000

More photos » by Tom Uhlman - AP

Homer Bailey poses for the statue that will someday adorn the outer concourse of Louisville Slugger Field. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. In his first two at-bats coming off of an inner ear infection, Jo-eh hit two home runs, including a towering 3-run shot in the 2nd to give the Reds the lead. For his award, Joey wins a case of Molson and a 10 dollar gift card to Tim Hortons.

Key Plays

Joey Votto his a solo HR off of David Huff in the 1st to give the Reds a 1-0 lead.
Shin-Soo Choo scored on a Mark DeRosa home run off of Homer Bailey in the 2nd, and Ass-dribble Cabrera singled in two runs to give the Indians a 4-1 lead.
Not to be outdone, in the bottom of the inning, Ramon Hernandez hit a 2-run HR to cut the lead to one run, and Joey Votto hit his second of the game to give the Reds a 6-4 lead.
Walks will haunt. In the 5th, Homer Bailey walked three hitters before Mark DeRosa singled in two runs to tie the game at 6.
David Weathers gave up a leadoff double in the 8th to Luis Valbuena, who later scored on a groundout given up by Arthur Rhodes.

Other Notes

Both teams left a lot of runners on base, with the Tribe leaving 9 and the Reds leaving 10. One can't help but wonder what might have been.
Joey Votto had a 4 RBI game for the second time this season. He was one off his career high of 5, which he accomplished once in 2007 and 2008.
He also had his 3rd career multi-HR game.
Maybe Willy Taveras needs a day off, In his last 8 games, his average has dropped from .322 to .279.
Homer Bailey made his 2009 debut and was less than spectacular. His line: 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 6 ER, 6 BB, 3 K. Maybe he got a little bit of bad luck from the umpire, and maybe it was nerves, but he's gotta be better than that if he expects to stay up here.
Brandon Phillips looked like he took a grounder off of his throwing hand and messed up his finger. It was bleeding and it looked like the nail may have came off. He came out of the game for a pinch hitter the next inning. He's getting an X-ray on it. Keep your fingers crossed.
Dusty set a season-high in double switches tonight with 3. Between that and BP's injury, Ramon Hernandez was playing 3rd by the end of the night (for the first time ever). Can you imagine if this would have happened last week with two players out and McDonald on the bench? I bet Dusty's thanking Walt right now.
Personally, I only had one gripe with Dusty. In a 7-6 game with a runner on and one out in the 9th, why bring in Mike Lincoln? I understand that Weathers would probably be the first choice here, and Burton was already used, and you don't want to bring Fisher in for his ML debut in a high leverage situatoin, but isn't that a pretty good place to use your closer if you're at home? You won't see a save situation, so why not bring Coco in to get two outs instead of the ticking time bomb Lincoln? It's a moot point anyway, since Lincoln somehow made it out of the jam, but I'd like to know his reasoning behind the move.
Over 35,000 fans in the ballpark for tonight's game. It's a nice number to have, but it should have been higher with everything going on downtown and the Tribe in town on Memorial Day weekend.