SB Nation - Luke Carlin

Catcher Alternatives from the Left Side

FreeZorilla — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 09:00:20 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

Kyle Phillips can make right-handed pitchers feel a bit uneasy.

With the departure of Gregg Zaun, it appears the Rays are ready to have Kelly Shoppach catch 120 games or so in 2010.While Shoppach qualifies as serviceable vs right-handed pitching, he excels versus lefties. This should leave the Rays looking for a catcher who can hit from the left side of the dish or at least one has shown the ability to hit either hand adequately. What options are out there? Let's break them down into two categories: internal and external options.

Internal Options

Jose Lobaton

Lobaton is a switch-hitting catcher who was claimed off waivers from the Padres when he was designated for assignment upon acquiring Sean Gallagher from Oakland. The Rays thought enough of Lobaton to keep five catchers on the 40 man roster. The 25 year-old Venezuelan was initially signed as an amateur free agent by the Padres in 2002. Prior to being claimed by the Rays, Lobaton was named the best defensive catcher in the Padres farm system consecutive years. We can probably assume he would at least not be a liability behind the plate.

As for the stick, Lobaton had a brief hiccup at AAA in 2008 with the Padres with a slash of .241/.292/.353 in 148 PA. At all previous levels Lobaton displayed good on-base skills consistently walking comfortably over 10% of the time. Upon being claimed by the Rays he was sent to AA Montgomery where he had a nice line of .262/.376/.452. The previous year in AA he OPSed .760.

The key with Lobaton is he shows much better from the left side of the plate. If we isolate his LHB vs RHP appearances his numbers look like this over the past three years.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	A+	314	0.269	0.354	0.432	0.163	11.5%	22.6%
2008	AA	287	0.271	0.347	0.457	0.186	11.2%	22.7%
2009	AA	87	0.280	0.360	0.493	0.213	10.3%	19.5%
2009	AAA	107	0.284	0.352	0.432	0.148	9.4%	20.6%

John Jaso

Jaso is a 26 year-old left-handed hitting catcher who was rapidly on the rise through the Rays farm system after being selected in the 12th round of the draft in 2003 by the Rays out of high school. He was added to the 40 man roster prior the the 2007 rule five draft. The biggest roadblock for Jaso has been his defense. However, he did have his worst offensive year at the plate in 2009. If there is to be a time for Jaso, in the organization, there probably won't be a better opportunity than now. Jaso has displayed decent power and excellent on-base skills throughout the minors with his BB:K ratio floating around one, always excellent for a double digit walker. He also does not find himself crippled by the sight of a lefty on the mound with a career OBP of .360 vs LHP. Jaso's #'s vs RHP splits can be found below:

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	AA	317	0.311	0.408	0.489	0.178	13.9%	11.7%
2008	AA	280	0.267	0.398	0.409	0.142	17.5%	9.6%
2008	AAA	78	0.278	0.333	0.514	0.236	7.7%	9.0%
2009	AAA	307	0.261	0.358	0.364	0.103	11.7%	12.4%

External Options from the Minors

Luke Carlin

Carlin has had a long and winding road in professional baseball that has resulted in a couple cups of coffee in the bigs the past two seasons totaling about 100 PA. Originally drafted by the Tigers in the 10th round out of Northeastern in 2002, he was granteda quick release in 2003. He caught on with the Padres immediately and played in their organization for 6 years. He signed with Arizona in 2009 as a minor league free agent. Carlin did very little with the bat until 2008, essentially his 3rd full season in AAA. However in back to back years he has now posted OPSes of .828 and .911. Carlin is another switch-hitter who has fared better from the left.

As for the defensive book, the consensus say defense is his bread and butter. Scout.com had this to say in 2007:

2006 Defense (Triple-A Portland): .991 Fielding Percentage was second among all catchers in the Pacific Coast League. He caught 36% of runners attempting to steal (24 of 66). Carlin is like a brick wall behind the plate. His part-time catching role in Portland was sometimes staggered however Carlin performed with unwavering consistency. The 26 year-old calls a good game and challenges hitters and pitchers alike by calling for pitches on the inside portion of the plate. Carlin's pick-off move to first has seen a lot of improvement.

Carlin is either rule five eligible or a minor league free agent after being outrighted to AAA on December 3rd, depending on whether he accepts the assignment. I'm sure the consensus is he is a AAAA player based on his age of 29 years, but given the relative lack of an opportunity cost, he could be worth a ST look to an open-minded organization. Below are his splits over the past 3 years vs. RHP. At the least, he is a good defensive, poor hitting catcher who is willing to draw walks when given the chance.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	AAA	239	0.243	0.357	0.337	0.094	15.1%	24.3%
2008	AAA	90	0.296	0.433	0.507	0.211	17.8%	23.3%
2009	AAA	202	0.345	0.448	0.53	0.185	15.4%	19.8%

Kyle Phillips

Phillips was drafted out of high school by the Twins in the 10th round of the 2002 draft. After spending 4 years with the Twins, he would spend 1 with the Brewers before finding a home in the Blue Jays organization in 2007. Like Jaso, the big question on Phillips is his defense. What the left-handed hitter has done consistently with the Blue Jays is murder right-handed pitching. Phillips is just 25, if his defense is better than subjectively advertised, he will have a future in the bigs. He was outrighted to AAA, and will be exposed in the Rule Five draft. His numbers vs. RHP are below.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	A+	342	0.329	0.372	0.453	0.124	7.0%	9.9%
2008	AA	246	0.326	0.398	0.472	0.146	10.2%	12.2%
2009	AAA	239	0.346	0.413	0.49	0.144	8.8%	13.0%

The Rays are in pretty good hands with Shoppach behind the dish, it is not worth giving up a key trading chip for a catcher who will play 40-50 games when there are freely available players within and outside of the system who have yet to be given a shot, and who would be less expensive than a veteran. Let's get three of these guys into camp and let the strong man survive.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:46:08 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Randy Wolf: 2010 Brewer?

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Some things to read while combining restaurants.

There's been a (likely unsubstantiated) rumor floating around that the Brewers have reached agreement on a three year deal for Randy Wolf. Again, odds are it's nothing, but it's still probably the top story on a slow news day, so here's some reaction to it:

In-Between Hops says the move would "make the Brewers starting rotation 50% better than it is right now."
Jorge Says No! thinks "this deal could turn into Jeff Suppan 2.0."

My reaction to the deal would depend on the price. If it'll take Suppan money to sign Wolf, then I'm not interested. But if the price is the rumored 3 years/$27 million, then we're getting close to the acceptable range. A third season for Wolf might be a bit risky, but the price is low enough to not be crippling.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are also still rumored to have interest in Gregg Zaun. FanGraphs has targeted Zaun as one of the players they'd like you to stop by and project today.

Assuming the front office isn't preparing to announce a Randy Wolf deal, they're most likely getting ready for next week's Winter Meetings. Adam McCalvy has a preview, including the Brewer needs, and once again raises the possibility that Jason Kendall could be back next season. McCovey Chronicles ranked Kendall seventh in their Future Free Agent Mistake Power Rankings.

Could Manny Parra be more effective out of the bullpen? I'm not sure I'm sold on it, but Keith Law said the Brewers should think about it in yesterday's chat, as noted over at View From Bernie's Chalet. Law also isn't too high on either Mat Gamel or Casey McGehee as a long-term solution at third base.

I know at least one BCB'er is already in line to get in, but if you were still trying to decide on checking out the Clubhouse Sale at Miller Park this weekend, John and Cait have a preview of the items that will be featured. After seeing it, I wish I had time to go.

If you're looking to do some Christmas shopping but you're more of the minor league type, the Brevard County Manatees also have some holiday specials going.

Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren will be back in the states this weekend, as the Venezuelan Winter League plays a two game series in Miami to showcase Venezuelan baseball in the US. Escobar and Iribarren's Lara team will take on a Zulia team which used to feature Brendan Katin. I'm assuming Katin has left the team, as he hasn't appeared in a game in over a month.

Elsewhere in the winter leagues, Mat Gamel went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in his VWL debut for Caracas last night. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Update.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed pitcher Ryan Sadowski to a minor league deal.
A's: Acquired Aaron Miles and Jake Fox from the Cubs for reliever Jeff Gray and two minor leaguers.
Braves: Signed Takashi Saito to a one year deal.
D-Backs: Removed reliever Kyler Newby and catcher Luke Carlin from their 40-man roster. (h/t AZ Snakepit)
Mets: Signed Henry Blanco to a one year, $1.5 million deal.
Phillies: Signed Placido Polanco to a three year deal worth $18 million.
Rays: Released pitcher Ramon Ramirez.
Red Sox: Signed Marco Scutaro to a two year deal with a mutual option for 2012.

If some of the Brewers' current pitching targets don't turn out, might they be interested in Gil Meche? MLB Trade Rumors says the Royals are expecting to receive offers for him once the free agent market starts to heat up. Meche is owed $24 million over the next two seasons, but has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in two of the last three years.

All three of these guys will probably come up in connection to the Brewers again at some point: Lookout Landing has a look at the upsides of Rich Harden, Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets, and explains why Harden is in a better position than Bedard for 2010.

Happy birthday today to:

Carlos Gomez, who turns 24.
Harvey Kuenn, who would have turned 79.

Oh, and no matter how disappointed you are in the offseason so far, at least we can all be glad Doug Melvin isn't responsible for these robocalls.

Drink up.

The Rookies Who Aren't

TheJay — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

The first part of the definition of a rookie in Major League Baseball is straightforward. Once a player reaches 131 at bats or 50 1/3 innings pitched, he's no longer a rookie. The second part is a little trickier. After all, service time numbers are hard to find. They generally come out once each year, in team media guides. Add in the fact that you have to subtract time in the major leagues after September 1st and on the disabled list and it's even harder to figure out who is truly a rookie.

It has already been mentioned this offseason that Mat Gamel eclipsed 45 days of service time before September. Gamel was recalled from Nashville on May 14th and optioned back on July 20th, giving him 67 days on the active roster during the "period of 25-player limit." So, even though he sits at 130 career at bats, the same number Scott Rolen had going into his Rookie of the Year season, Gamel cannot win the Rookie of the Year award (though that might not stop him from getting votes).

Gamel isn't the only such little-used non-rookie in the Brewers organization. Raise your hand if you realized Hernan Iribarren has 48 days of major league service time, all before September 1. Iribarren spent 20 days on the major league roster in April and June 2008, picking up 14 at bats. He spent 28 days in the majors in 2009, batting a mere 13 times. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict he wasn't going to win the 2010 Rookie of the Year Award anyway.

New Brewer George Kottaras also enters 2010 off the list of rookie players. He spent all of 2009 in the majors with the Red Sox, playing in 45 games with 93 at bats. Though he spent the month of August on the disabled list, he gave up his 2010 rookie status in mid-May.

Gamel, Iribarren, and Kottaras are not the only little-used rookies. Follow the jump for a list of all such position players to appear in the majors in 2008 or 2009. Please note it is lengthy and full of guys who have no chance at winning an award anyway. I will post a list of pitchers in the next few days.

Non-Rookies with 130 or fewer career AB:

Mat Gamel, 130 career AB
Joaquin Arias, 129 AB
Argenis Reyes, 127 AB
Jose Morales, 122 AB
Ivan Ochoa*, 120 AB
Michel Hernandez, 118 AB
Curtis Thigpen*, 118 AB
Ramiro Pena, 115 AB
Josh Whitesell, 115 AB
Luke Carlin, 112 AB
Chris Gimenez, 111 AB
Tyler Greene, 108 AB
Sam Fuld, 103 AB
Reid Brignac, 100 AB
Francisco Cervelli, 99 AB
George Kottaras, 98 AB
Freddy Guzman, 95 AB
Robinson Cancel, 94 AB
Guillermo Rodriguez, 92 AB
Steve Holm, 91 AB
Justin Ruggiano*, 90 AB
Nathan Haynes*, 89 AB
Diory Hernandez, 85 AB
Don Kelly, 83 AB
Dane Sardinha, 80 AB
Luis Maza*, 79 AB
Paul Hoover, 78 AB
Edwin Maysonet, 76 AB
Dusty Ryan, 70 AB
Clint Sammons, 68 AB
Tug Hulett, 67 AB
Drew Sutton, 66 AB
J.R. House*, 60 AB
John Mayberry, 57 AB
Gregorio Petit, 54 AB
Brian Myrow*, 51 AB
Chris Stewart*, 48 AB
Justin Christian*, 40 AB
Travis Denker*, 37 AB
Gustavo Molina*, 34 AB
Hernan Iribarren, 27 AB
Ryan Budde, 23 AB

* - last appeared in the majors in 2008

I warned you. If I missed anyone or included someone who should not be on the list, let me know in the comments.

Montero vs. Snyder - decision time looms

Jim McLennan — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 02:00:10 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Montero calls his shot, pointing to home-plate to indicate he'll be crossing it shortly.

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With Chris Snyder now rehabbing at Triple-A, it won't be long before he returns to the big-leagues, setting up an difficult decision for management - albeit one that they probably are happy to have. Snyder has been the #1 catcher for the Diamondbacks since 2007, but Miguel Montero has been a revelation since taking over in that role, after Snyder went on the DL with a back problem in the middle of June. Since taking over, Montero has been the hottest hitter on the team, and the most productive catcher in the major-leagues, with a line of .352/.373/.598, for an OPS of .971.

What will the team do when Snyder and Montero are both healthy and available? Details after the jump...

At the moment, it seems the Diamondbacks dodged - or avoided, I'm unsure which - a bullet by not trading Montero to the Red Sox in the off-season, as was seriously discussed at the time. While the reasons why negotiations broke down are uncertain, it seems likely Arizona had a higher view of Montero's value than Boston, and the gap proved unbridgeable. If that was the case, score one for us. Know how many NL catchers with 200 PAs have a better OPS+ than Montero? That'd be one: the Braves' Brian McCann. [Full list] Miggy's 116 is miles ahead of such touted players as Russell Martin (84), Geovany Soto (89) - and even the man whom the Red Sox preferred, at a cost of $5m, Jason Varitek (100).

The case for Snyder

Long-term consistency. Since Montero reached the majors in 2006, Snyder has an OPS+ of 97, five points better than Montero's 92. Sure, Montero has had a great month, but two words for you there: Ryan Roberts. Montero's BABIP in the past 28 days is an unsustainable .400.
Plate discipline. While Montero has hit for both average and power slightly better than Snyder in the past four seasons, this has historically been outweighed by Snyder's much better eye. He walks about once every eight PA's; compared to Montero's 11.6. This has continued in 2009: while Montero's BA is much better than Snyder's .224, their OBP is almost identical. .357 for Montero, .354 for Snyder.
Superior defense. While difficult to measure for catchers (there's no UZR available), all the career numbers suggest Snyder is the better man with the glove:
   Caught stealing: 33% vs. 23% [2009 League average: 28%]
   Fielding percentage: .999 vs .986 [Avg: .993]
   Range factor/9: 7.80 vs. 7.53 [Avg: 7.55]

The case for Montero

He'a a left-handed bat. This is perhaps less an issue now than it was, with the arrival of Gerardo Parra and Josh Whitesell to semi-permanent roster spots. However, Eric Byrnes will be back, and that'll likely reduce Parra's playing time. Another LHB is always welcome.
The face of the future? We pretty much know what Snyder can do. Montero never had 50 PAs in a month before May this year. He had 81 in June, and will almost certainly get more in July, despite the break. Without a pennant race, it's a great chance to evaluate him and see whether he can be a #1 in 2010.
Practice makes perfect. The main knock on him has been defense: regular playing-time in game situations is probably the only way that will get better. There already seems to have been an improvement, particularly in his throwing - his CS% is up five points on last season to 26%, almost league average.

As you can tell, there are arguments in favor of both players, and I think this is likely to be reflected in what happens when Snyder returns, probably at the end of the week. Hinch will attempt to get both players into the line-up as much as possible. Snyder will likely start whenever we face a left-hander, though Montero has handled them pretty well in his career - while we're only talking about a hundred PA's, he actually has a higher BA, though with much less power [only two career HR].

My instinct is that we won't see either player traded before the deadline. Snyder's injury and Montero's hot streak make it difficult to deal them, and I think we will see the rest of the season as an evaluation period, see whether Montero is "for real". While it'd be nice to retain both men, I suspect we will see one or the other dealt during the off-season, as having a great back-up catcher is a luxury rather than a necessity. There are more obvious holes which need to be filled - in particular, second-base and probably starting pitching - and either man would be a useful chip in these areas. See IHateSouthBend's excellent review of Snyder's trade potential, as much of what is said will likely still apply off-season.

One idea which we may get resurrected is the concept of shifting Montero to third-base. This is an area into which the team dipped its toe last winter, with Miguel playing some at the position in the Venezuelan Winter League. With the departure of Felipe Lopez, second-base is once again a question-mark for 2010, so I wonder if we might see Mark Reynolds shifting there, with Montero replacing him at third and Snyder remaining the everyday catcher? If so, it's something I think should be started sooner than later - this season is basically a dead year, and I'd rather see everyone concerned use the remaining 65 games to get accustomed to their new positions.

If one or other does get traded, however, the question would still need to be addressed of a back-up catcher, which is likely more important than a sub at any other position, as they'll see more action. Since 2001, here's the median number of games played by a front-line player:
    C: 119
   1B: 144
   2B: 136
   SS: 145
   3B: 142
   LF: 137
   CF: 140
   RF: 142
That includes pinch-hit appearances, so odds are, your back-up catcher will start 50 or more games, about twice as many as at most other spots. I don't know about you, but I don't feel confident in that being Luke Carlin, a 28-year old with a career .153 batting-average in the big-leagues and .693 OPS in the minors. I'm thinking John Hester might be a better shot - he's hitting .324 for the Reno Aces, and has an OPS over .900. Aged 25, he might be the man for the job in 2010.

[All stats through Saturday night]

Game Recap, Jays Lose to Team Canada

Tom Dakers — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 00:09:28 -0000

In a game that made it hard to figure out who to cheer for Team Canada beat the Jays 6-4. Maybe let's talk about the two teams separately.

Team Canada:

It looks like the Canadian team will have a really good offense, maybe leaning a little too much on the lefty batters. Is it a Canadian thing that most of our best batters swing left-handed. I know that there are far more lefty golfers in Canada than there is in the US. In Canada about 25% of us swing lefty while in the states it is less than 5%. The explanation I agree with is it is a hockey thing, most of us on this side of the border swing a hockey stick long before we swing a golf club and many (half?) hockey players are left-handed shots. So it is natural for us to pick up a golf club the same way. Maybe the same is true with a baseball bat.

Anyway the Team Canada bats looked good today, get 8 hits and taking 7 walks. Of note, Corey Koskie looked good at the plate, he was 1 for 3 with a double, a walk, a hit by pitch and 3 runs. Leadoff hitter and shortstop Chris Barnwell was 1 for 3 with 2 walks. Justin Morneau was 2 for 3 with an RBI and Pete Orr was 1 for 3 with 2 RBI. Back-up catcher Luke Carlin hit a 2 run double.

The defense for Canada might be a problem. In the outfield we had Joey Votto in left, Jason Bay in center and Matt Stairs in RF. I'd like to think Adam Stern will play center in the tournament games, moving Stairs to DH and maybe Kosie (who DHed today) to 3B.

Pitching looks to be the weak link for the Canadian team, but it was pretty good today. Scott Richmond went 2.2, gave up 4 hits, a walk, a strikeout and 2 runs. Chris Begg followed him with a good 2.1 innings, striking out 4 while giving up just a run. First round draft pick Phillippe Aumont, Jesse Crain, Steve Green and David Davidson (what were his parents thinking) each pitched an scoreless inning except for Green. Green gave up a homer to Aaron Matthews (who?) but got lucky on a call where Mark Teahen, playing RF, trapped a ball against the RF fence but got credited with a catch.

Blue Jays:

Mike Maroth didn't impress, he walked 3, hit one batter but only gave up 2 runs in 2 innings. Fabio Castro didn't have a great showing either giving up 2 hits and 2 walks in 2 innings. Bill Murphy also gave up 2 runs in 2 innings. Rick Bauer gave up 1 run in his 1 inning of work. But TJ Beam and Robert Ray looked good, pitching a scoreless inning each. Ray in particular has looked good this spring.

Batting wise Scott Campbell went 2 for 3 with an RBI. Johnny Mac, Inglett, Jason Lane and Adam Loewen each went 1 for 3. Russ Adams was 1 for 2 with a walk and run, but he didn't look good in the field, playing second base.

Doing less well were Michael Barrett (0 for 3 with 2 strikouts), Buck Coats (0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts), Ryan Patterson (0 for 2), Brad Emaus (0 for 2) and Kevin Ahrens (0 for 2).

Tomorrow the Jays play Team USA. Brad Mills is to start for the Jays and Casey Janssen and Lyle Overbay will get their first game action this spring.

Some more kids that you ain't used to: the Diamondbacks non-roster invitees

Jim McLennan — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 03:25:47 -0000

Here we go with phase two of a look at the lesser known Diamondbacks who you may see in spring-training. Having filled out the back end of the 40-man roster in the previous installment, this time we look at the seventeen non-roster invitees who got an invite to enjoy spring in Tucson - at least for the next couple of weeks. These are a combination of players from the low minors, who didn't yet need to be added to the 40-man roster, and independent free agents. Odds against anyone here making the Opening Day squad, we're mostly looking at the free agents with the intent of using them to fill out the ~~Sidewinders~~, oops, make that the Reno Aces Triple-A roster.

I note one name not on the list. Jarrod Parker, one of only two from Arizona to make Kevin Goldstein's top hundred prospects at Baseball Prospectus last week [Parker was #32 and Daniel Schlereth #89. MLB.com rated him even higher, at #18 in their recent survey] He was our first-round pick, ninth overall, in 2007 and posted a 3.44 ERA at South Bend in his first full pro season - and that figure was after the pitching staff forced Parker to work on his secondary pitches, in particular, his change-up. With a 97 mph fastball and control of four pitches [he walked only 2.52/9 IP, while striking out almost a batter per inning], it's a little surprising he didn't get an invite, especially since he was there last year. Some reckon he'll be in the majors as soon as 2010, and he has drawn comparisons to a young Lincecum. We can but hope. Anyway, here are the rest: no numbers for these guys as yet, details after the jump.

Pitchers	B/T	Ht	Wt	DoB
Hector Ambriz	L/R	6'1"	220	5/24/84
Tony Barnette	R/R	6'2"	190	11/9/83
Brooks Brown	L/R	6'3"	212	6/20/85
Seth Etherton	R/R	6'1"	195	10/17/76
Reid Mahon	R/R	6'3"	215	6/1/83
Daniel Schlereth	L/L	6'0"	210	6/1/83
Catchers	B/T	Ht	Wt	DoB
Luke Carlin	S/R	5'10"	195	12/20/80
Ed Easley	R/R	6'1"	180	12/21/85
John Hester	R/R	6'4"	210	9/14/83
Infielders	B/T	Ht	Wt	DoB
Ryan Roberts	R/R	5'11"	190	9/19/80
Rusty Ryal	R/R	6'2"	195	3/16/83
Josh Wilson	R/R	6'0"	175	3/26/81
Outfielders	B/T	Ht	Wt	DoB
Evan Frey	L/L	5'11"	166	6/7/86
Trent Oeltjen	L/L	6'1"	190	2/28/83
Gerardo Parra	L/L	6'1"	186	5/6/87
Chris Roberson	S/R	6'2"	180	8/23/79
Brandon Watson	L/R	6'1"	170	9/30/81

Hector Ambriz. One of the starters for Mobile (Double-A) this year, Ambriz had a 5-13 record, and saw his ERA rise to 4.89. His HR rate almost doubled, though that may partly be due to park factors - Mobile rated a monstrous 1.21 for homers, and 14 of the 22 he allowed were at home there. He also allowed eight homers and a .358 BA in the first inning, so seems he needs to warm up more.

Tony Barnette. Another member of the Mobile rotation, Barnette was the only one to have a winning record (11-7) and posted a decent 3.87 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a .246 average. While similarly hurt by the park, allowing only four home-runs on the road, he had a good K:BB ratio, of better than 3:1. Like Dan Schlereth, he was born in Anchorage.

Brooks Brown. Not to be confused with the Columbine killers' pal [Google is not your friend], Brown struggled later on in the season, and on into the Arizona Fall League. He's a sinkerballer - only one home-run on 75.1 road innings in 2008 - though his ground/fly rate has been going the wrong way in recent years. He is only 23, and if he can find a change-up to go with his fastball and slider, he could still make the rotation.

Seth Etherton. A former first-round pick in 1998, he has appeared in the majors in four seasons since 2000, with four different teams, and also in Korea. He missed most of 2008 after Tommy John surgery, and his only work last year was two games in August for the indy Long Beach Armada of the Golden Baseball League. On first glance, would appear to be prime roster filler for the Reno Aces.

Reid Mahon. He started off as the closer in Mobile, being perfect in 18 save chances there, which got him a promotion up to Tucson. He added six more saves there down the stretch, though his ERA ended up at 5.25. Likely he'll start 2009 off in the same role for Reno, and could be one of those in line for a potential call-up if the bullpen needs some fresh arms.

Daniel Schlereth.After being drafted by the Diamondbacks in the first round last June, it took him a month to sign, so there wasn't much time for him to make a mark in the minor-leagues. He threw just three innings in Missoula before getting sent up to South Bend, for another brief stint. "I only threw 12 innings, but they were pretty good innings," he said. Double-A ball is likely in Schlereth's immediate future, and he might find himself stretched out over multiple innings there.

Luke Carlin. Made his major-leage debut last May for San Diego, and it was a memorable one, as he caught Greg Maddux's 350th win. However, he hit only .149 in 36 games for the Padres, and is generally regarded as someone whose strengths are much more on the defensive side. Will probably act as the backup to Russell Martin on the Canadian squad for the WBC.

Ed Easley. Also a non-roster invitee last season, Easley struggled somewhat at Visalia in 2008. He started well enough, hitting .313 in April but ended with an OPS of just .649. Given his offense is generally regarded as being superior to his defense [and, in particular, his arm], that has to be seen as a disappointment, even if he only turned 23 in December.

John Hester. The regular catcher in Mobile, he didn't get as much help from the park there as you'd think - indeed, his OPS was 121 points better on the road, at a very respectable .833. Could do with some more walks though, his K:BB a swingtastic 78:16. He nailed 30% of base-stealers this season.

Ryan Roberts. May be the ultimate utility guy - during 2007, he played eight positions including the DH, for Triple-A Syracuse. Mostly a second-baseman, he produced a home-run for his first major-league at bat in 2006, but has only one more hit in 26 subsequent ABs. He's got over 30 tattoos, so can trade ink tips with Jon Rauch this spring, and had seven RBI in an inning on July 27, homering twice off Josh Towers.

Rusty Ryal. Could he be our second-baseman in 2010? Solid enough performance for Mobile this year, batting .274 with 16 homers. He also had only eight errors over 97 games at 2B, in his first year playing mostly at that position [he was originally a 3B and occasional SS]. Perhaps a little old for his level - he'll be 26 next month - but we don't really have many other internal options at this point.

Josh Wilson. Likely signed to help shore up the infield defense of the Aces, he was a minor part of the trade that sent Manny to the Dodgers, but the D-backs will be his seventh organization. He played 90 games for the Rays in 2007, mostly at shortstop, hitting .251, but also pitched an inning of relief against the Marlins in a blowout loss. A scoreless inning. Mark Grace, eat your heart out...

Evan Frey. Almost as many walks as strikeouts (76:84) for Frey in 2008, who ended up with an OBP for the year of .400. He has virtually no power as yet, with three homers in 784 career at-bats, but is being projected as a potential AZ lead-off hitter for 2011 or sooner, though Chris Young appears to have a solid hold on CF at the moment. Zephon will be pleased to hear that when you Google our prospect's name, his piece is the first hit, so refer to that for more info on Frey.

Trent Oeltjen. A good season for our Australian, who hit .317 in Tucson. He'd be the third Olympic medal on the current AZ roster, a 2004 silver joining Augie Ojeda's 1996 bronze and Jon Rauch's 2000 gold, and is likely to make the Oz roster for his second WBC appearance. Spent the winter at home, playing for the NSW Patriots, who reached the finals of their baseball competition, before losing, Oeltjen-less, as he'd already left for Arizona.

Gerardo Parra. Still only 21, Parra is already at Double-A, having been promoted after batting .301 for Visalia. He took a step back at the higher level, but restored his stock in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he batted .329/.404/.504, including one game where he had four of his team's six hits. He should see Triple-A this season, and then be knocking on the door of the major-leagues in spring 2010.

Chris Roberson. His father, Rick, was an NBA player including a spell alongside Wilt Chamberlain on the Lakers. This year should see his 3,000th minor-league AB, compared to just 69 ML ones for the 29-year old. In shades of The Natural, he got to make his Phillies debut in 2007 after Aaron Rowand crashed into the wall, but never quite lived up to his ranking, two years earlier, among baseball's top 25 prospects.

Brandon Watson. Had a 43-game hitting streak in 2007, and played alongside Travis Blackley on the Lehigh Valley IronPigs last season, where he batted .305, right on his career average in the minors. Not exactly a slugger - only 14 homers in ten seasons there and 4,000+ at-bats - but he does seem to have a MySpace page. Another one who'll likely be stashed down in Reno, in case of severe emergency.

Are LHB being unfairly struck out looking on pitches away?

iamawesomer — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 01:03:34 -0000

Before we begin I want readers to know that I understand the minutaie of such a topic. Originally this was going to be a post on the full count, but the ridiculous of one of my charts made me decide to look at this phenomena instead.

From my last post on the Oakland A's strike 3s looking and some other work I've got in the pipeline (here's a preview), I've noticed a disturbing trend with regard to left handed batters. They're being rung up a ridiculous amount of the time on pitches not just away, but way away. Here's what I'm talking about.

(Remember this is from the catcher/umpire perspective)

The black line represents 10 inches to the left of home plate, which is what I've seen referred to as the very edge of the strike zone. To account for a couple inches of error in the data as well as balls that may have crossed the strikezone farther in the y dimension (say a slider from a RHP that crosses home plate 5 inches behind the front of the plate where pitch f/x measures from) I've only taken the strikes that pitchfx said were centered at 1 foot to the left of home plate or farther left.

I'm also only concerned with pitches within the top and bottom of the batter's strikezone. If an ump is missing a ball both low and away, he's probably hopeless anyway. In this exercise there were only 10 Kc that were both high/low and away, so umps are pretty good with the knees to the letters rule. The ball grazes the edge of home plate rule, eh maybe not so much.

So How Bad Is It?

For those who don't want to count each dot, that's 674 Kc away which were likely unjustified, at least according to the data we are provided with. That's about a little over 1 every 4 games last season. I don't know if that sounds like a lot to you, but when you consider these are just the balls away to LHB (there are plenty of other OoZ Kc to both LHB and RHB high, low and every other direction) I think it's quite a problem.

The other thing I wanted to see was consistency. If these were always called strikes unjustly, at least the batter knows he needs to swing at a ball at this part of the "strike zone". If they're sometimes balls and other times strikes, well what is he supposed to do then? So here's the Kc overlaid on the balls away.

Hmmm, this picture isn't as helpful as I originally intended. I mean it's nice to see that umpires are calling balls 2 feet away from the center of home plate balls, and that pitchers throw a lot more balls way out there than I had expected, but it doesn't answer our consistency question at all. It's also way too many data points and has broken Excel's scatter plot more than a few times already today (R has a much steeper learning curve than I anticipated). Let's instead look at the zone in dispute.

Let's Zoom In A Bit

The furthest called strike was just under 1.61 feet away from the center of home plate, so I'm going to take that as the farthest point. I'm not trying to make the graph ingenuine by making the origin something other than (0,0), it's just that we are only concerned with a 1/2 foot by 2 foot area of the "strike zone" right now so it makes sense just to focus on that part. Just remember to look at the axis to make sense of the graph.

Well now isn't that interesting, looks like the umpires aren't even consistent. Even if they were consistently bad at least batters would know what to do. I'm not a huge fan of arbitrary zones, but I don't have the hang of the software yet to do a heat map so arbitrary it is.

A little more than 1/2 of the Kc fell in the first quarter of the graph horizontally [-1.00, -1.16], 364 Kc to be precise. In that same region, 462 Balls were called. So we can say the umps were wrong 44% of the time, just a bit under half. That's not very helpful to batters. I would think they would actually prefer if that number were much higher, say 80%, because then they at least know they need to swing at it since it will be called a strike. Obviously they'd prefer to be getting the proper strike zone called if anything, but that simply doesn't look like it's happening right now.

As to the break-even point, it's at 1.096 feet away from the center of home plate. All pitches between [-1 and -1.096] had a 50/50 chance of being called a ball or strike. It's only a little over 3 inches away from where the true strike zone is supposed to end, but it's called a game of inches for a reason, and those are very valuable to a pitcher.

What can be done?

Well, the easiest thing is just to tell the umpires to call the correct strike zone and it would make things nice and simple. Considering this fishy LHB business has been going on for a while though, it may not change anytime soon. So what else is to be done?

Left Handed Batters

Sorry guys but it looks like you're getting screwed here a bit. Gotta learn to start swinging at those balls away with two strikes. I know you can't do much with them, but maybe you could foul them off?

For what it's worth batters swung at 4360 (54.9%) of pitches in the disputed area [-1, -1.61]. It's hard to say whether that's an effect of the umpire's calls or just batters swinging at worse pitches with 2 strikes on them, but that sounds like a lot. Even my favorite free swinger Pablo Sandoval "only" swung at 53.8% out of the zone overall last year.

Who knows, something good might even happen. Even Padres C Luke Carlin took one of those pitches deep (highlighting mine)
and he's got 12 HR in almost 1500 professional AB.

Pitchers

You've got it easy, the ump is practically giving you a few extra inches away, and most left handed batters probably aren't doing much damage even if they make contact in that area, only 8 HR were hit in that area with two strikes. Don't go to the well there every time since you might become too predictable, but if I was a LHP I'd throw sliders and curves in that area almost with reckless abandon. RHP with tailing fastballs are set as well.

Umpires

You do enough to draw ire already just by wearing your uniform, though most of the time it's not deserved. In this instance it appears to be the case though, so learn to properly look over the catchers shoulder or figure out a better way to approach calling pitches away when a LHB is up, because you don't seem to be doing a very good job right now.

The Brewer Advent Calendar #14: Mike Rivera

KLSnow — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:00:14 -0000

Behind door #14 we find...Mike Rivera!

via www.milwaukeebrewersticket.net

EDIT: That's actually Damian Miller. My mistake. Pretend it's Mike Rivera.

At least we know we didn't pull him away from anything important.

On Jason Kendall's page, we briefly discussed how much Kendall plays. But there must be two sides to every coin, so it's only fair to point out how little Mike Rivera played. What's even more interesting is how well he hit in limited opportunities. Rivera hit .306/.377/.435 in 2008 despite ten different stretches where he went ten days or more without an AB. Only eight catchers in all of baseball posted an OPS higher than Rivera's .812. Here are the worst ten OPS seasons from 2008 by catchers who played more often than Rivera:

Player	Team	AB	OPS
Luke Carlin	San Diego	94	.472
J.R. Towles	Houston	146	.503
Rob Bowen	Oakland	91	.505
Guillermo Quiroz	Baltimore	134	.528
Josh Bard	San Diego	178	.549
Mike Rabelo	Florida	109	.550
Humberto Quintero	Houston	168	.568
Michael Barrett	San Diego	94	.572
Jose Molina	New York (AL)	268	.576
Ronny Paulino	Pittsburgh	118	.582

Padres rookies photographed dressed as Hooters girls in bizarre hazing ritual

jbox — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 04:23:06 -0000

(AP Photo/The Denver Post, John Leyba)

NC Times:

Sixteen Padres rookies and first-year personnel wore Hooters Girls outfits on the team's flight from Denver to Washington, D.C. on Wednesday night. RHP Trevor Hoffman was scouring the media guide to find players with less than one year of service time ---- the requirement for not wearing the get-up. This was the second time OF Chase Headley and OF Drew Macias had to participate in the rookie flight

One year of service? That's got to be the majority of the team. With the rookies outnumbering the veterans, they should turn the tables and haze them.

Giles must be so upset that none of these guys are tanning. These kids now a days just don't seem to learn from veterans leading by example.

Can you help me put names to these glorious bodies? That's Nick Hundley Luke Carlin up front and from there I'm lost in a sea of tan lines and bulges. Makes me hungry for some wings.

[Note by jbox, 09/18/08 9:48 PM PDT ]

Fox Colorado via Gaslamp Baller Mrs. Huber

Denver Post via Gaslamp Baller C8lin and Sports by Brooks

Here's more pictures of rookie hazing from past years

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