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San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:11:50 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

3 months ago: San Diego Padres rookie pitcher Aaron Poreda heads to the bullpen before a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh Friday, Sept. 18, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Donavan Tate, OF, Grade B+: I'll trust the tools and San Diego's approach to hitting instruction with this one.

2) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade B+: Excellent arm with improving command, has come a long way since pitching poorly in rookie ball in 2007.

3) James Darnell, 3B, Grade B: A solid all-around hitter with good power and very good plate discipline.

4) Jaff "Commodore" Decker, OF, Grade B: If John Kruk and Matt Stairs can play in the majors, Jaff Decker can too, bad body or not.

5) Wynn Pelzer, RHP, Grade B: A personal favorite, he strikes people out and gets grounders with plus stuff. Really like him a lot.

6) Everett Williams, Grade B: As with Tate, I trust the tools and the Padres' ability to refine them.

7) Logan Forsythe, 3B, Grade B-: Joe Randa type, good plate discipline, good glove, perhaps not the power of a standard third baseman.

8) Edinson Rincon, 3B, Grade B-: Very impressive bat, but I want to see him at higher levels and his glove looks like a big problem at third. Future outfielder most likely.

9) Cory Luebke, LHP, Grade C+: Doesn't have the power stuff of Castro or Pelzer, but very polished.

10) Aaron Poreda, LHP, Grade C+: Command collapsed after the Peavy trade, cutting into his grade.

11) Lance Zawadski, SS, Grade C+: At worst he could be a very good utility guy, but there's some chance he could develop into a decent regular.

12) Rymer Liriano, OF, Grade C+: Very toolsy, hit well in the Arizona Rookie League but will need to improve his plate discipline.

13) Sawyer Carroll, OF, Grade C+: Hit .317/.413/.489 with 19 steals and 80 walks between the Midwest League, Cal League, and Texas League, but no one seems to have noticed. Production didn't drop at San Antonio.

14) Drew Cumberland, SS-2B, Grade C+: Can't stay healthy, but when on the field he's been very effective as an on-base threat. Young enough to turn out very well.

15) Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Grade C+: Gets an injury mulligan, but he needs a fast start in '10 to quiet the persistent doubters.

16) Adys Portillo, RHP, Grade C+: Bad rookie ball numbers, but could follow the Simon Castro career path.

17) Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Grade C+: Impressive athlete with a lively arm, one of my favorite high school pitchers from the '09 draft.

18) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+: Scouts are panning his glove but his bat looks solid to me, good plate discipline as with many Padres prospects.

19) Jerry Sullivan, RHP, Grade C+: Solid arm out of Oral Roberts, could rise quickly.

20) Eric Sogard, 2B, Grade C+: Gets on base, not punchless, defense is so-so but I like the bat enough to keep give him this grade

21) Jeremy Hefner, RHP, Grade C+: Someone I've liked since he was in college. Another guy with good components.

OTHERS: (all Grade C): Vince Belnome, 2B; Mitch Canham, C; Cesar Carrillo, RHP; Dexter Carter, RHP; Matt Clark, 1B; Luis Durango, OF; Allan Dykstra, 1B; Chris Fetter, RHP; Ernesto Frieri, RHP; Brandon Gomes, RHP; Nick Greenwood, LHP; Chad Huffman, OF; Cedric Hunter, OF; Will Inman, RHP; Craig Italiano, RHP; Jeremy McBryde, RHP; James Needy, RHP; Cesar Ramos, LHP; Jorge Reyes, RHP; Evan Scribner, RHP.

I felt this system was underrated entering 2009, and things are really looking up here. They've got a good mixture of polished bats and upside arms, and adding additional athletic upside in the '09 draft just makes things even better. Although they went with more athleticism at the top (Tate, Williams, Sampson) this year, they continued to draft polished college guys in the latter rounds, and I think this strategy will help them. It should also be noted that even the "skill" drafts before 2009 included good athletes like Darnell, Forsythe, Cumberland, Pelzer, and Zawadski. This was never a "tools don't matter" organization, no matter what people said.

A year from now things could look even better if Tate, Williams, and some of the lower level guys develop as expected. I should also note that there were several other guys that I could have written about: Brad Chalk, Blake Tekotte, Brad Brach, Anthony Bass, Erik Davis, Nick Schmidt, Nate Frieman, and others were considered. I might end up dropping Nick Greenwood and adding someone else, but there just isn't enough room for all of the Grade C guys who merit inclusion. The list I ended up with reflects a mixture of what I thought would interest people, including some guys who are closer to the majors but also putting in a few lower-level sleepers.

Overall, I really like this farm system.

San Diego Padres Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 13:00:11 -0000

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San Diego Padres starting pitcher Mat Latos (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

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San Diego Padres Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published January 6^th, 2009. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The grade listed is the OLD GRADE. With a few exceptions, I'm not doing new grades or new lists until I start writing the 2010 book.

1) Kyle Blanks, 1B, Grade B+: .283/.393/.485 in Triple-A, .240/.352/.455 in the majors. Like the power he's shown so far, expect the batting average and OBP will rise eventually.

2) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B: hitting .302/.447/.509 in the Midwest League. Very polished bat, as expected.

3) Mat Latos, RHP, Grade B: 1.37 ERA with 73/12 K/BB in the minors, 4.02 ERA with 24/12 K/BB in 34 major league innings so far. Only concern going forward is durability.

4) Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Grade B: Hit just .201/.257/.254 in 36 games in Double-A, out since June with hamstring injury. Had a bad shoulder in April and May. Hasn't been healthy at all this year.

5) Cedric Hunter, OF, Grade B-: Hitting just .254/.289/.321 in Double-A. Unable to maintain batting average and high OBP against better pitching so far. Still makes contact but lack of power hampering him.

6) James Darnell, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .318/.434/.552 between two levels of A-ball, excellent plate discipline.

7) Allan Dykstra, 1B, Grade B-: Hitting .206/.381/.345....87 walks for Fort Wayne in 104 games, but power disappointing. May be too passive.

8) Will Inman, RHP, Grade B-: Was getting killed in the PCL (6.71 ERA, 83 hits in 63 innings). Sent back to Double-A and pitching well again (2.72 ERA, 40/10 K/BB in 56 innings). Will get more chances but scouts have never liked him.

9) Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Grade C+: 4.25 ERA with 83/29 K/BB in 108 innings in Triple-A. Crushed in two major league starts due to wobbly command.

10) Matt Antonelli, 2B, Grade C+: .193/.294/.332 in Triple-A. I guess maybe last year WASN'T just a bizarre bad luck fluke.

11) Eric Sogard, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting .289/.370/.379 in Double-A. Good contact hitting ability with strike zone judgment.

12) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+: hitting .319/.431/.528 with 12 steals in the Arizona Rookie League. Great tools, skills look solid right now for his age, stock way up.

13) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade C+: 3.93 ERA, 133/32 K/BB in 117 innings, 107 hits in the Midwest League. Live arm, command has been good this year, stock rising.

14) Cole Figueroa, 2B, Grade C+: .339/.430/.435 in 54 games for Fort Wayne. Lack of power may be a problem at higher levels, hit just .187 in 21-game trial at Lake Elsinore.

15) Adis Portillo, RHP, Grade C+: 4.72 ERA with 42/20 k/BB in 48 games in the Arizona Rookie League, 59 hits. Not great, obviously needs time to refine his raw ability.

16) Blake Tekotte, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .270/.359/.413 for Fort Wayne, 60 walks, 12 homers, 27 steals. Does a lot of things on the field, broad skill base, but projection to higher levels remains an issue.

17) Jeremy Hefner, RHP, Grade C+: 12-5, 4.15 with a 125/34 K/BB in 126 innings for Lake Elsinore, 134 hits. Holding his own in the Cal League, good command, good strikeout rate.

18) Josh Geer, RHP, Grade C+: 5.96 ERA with 54/23 K/BB in 103 innings in the majors, 116 hits. Throws strikes but stuff is a bit too short. I think he might be better off in short stretches, used in relief.

19) Logan Forsythe, 3B, Grade C+: Hit .322/.472/.504 in the Cal League, but just .264/.362/.390 in the Texas League. Still controlling the zone well, but power slumped. Keep in mind San Antonio is a pitcher's environment.

20) Will Venable, OF, Grade C: Hitting .269/.338/.462 in the majors. A solid fourth/platoon outfielder.

There were a large mass of Grade C prospects in the system beyond this, and my general feeling entering the season was that the system was underrated by other sources. The Padres are very skill-oriented in their drafting. The standard criticism of this is that you end up with nothing but role players and few potential stars. The opposite approach, focusing on tools goofs , gets you the occasional star but also a large number of busts who look great in uniform but can't play. I think the best approach is a mixed one, bringing in both skill players with polish AND tools guys and not focusing on one or the other exclusively. Indeed, the Padres are taking steps to bring more tool players into the system, particularly from Latin America. Diversity is good.

Kulbacki is an injury casualty and gets a mulligan, but at this point I don't see a lot of hope for Antonelli. Keep an eye on Wynn Pelzer and Ernesto Frieri, two intriguing RHP.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: San Diego Padres

Brendan Scolari — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 02:18:40 -0000

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Buyers or sellers?

The Padres are in the cellar of the NL West, 24 games behind the first place Dodgers. At 37-58, they are obviously sellers. The problem for the Padres is that some of their most tradeable players are hurt, making them difficult if not impossible to deal. But the Padres are trying to add prospects in the hopes that they can build a contender some time in the next few years.

Short-term need

Hmm, where to start... The Padres have needs all over the diamond. With the trade of Scott Hairston and collapse of Brian Giles, Adrian Gonzalez is the only player who needs to stay on the field. Tony Gwynn Jr. has done a fine job too but whether he can keep that up remains to be seen. The same goes for the pitching staff, where only Jake Peavy and Heath Bell are good contributers. Peavy has about a 50-50 chance of not pitching again this year so he won't be included in any trades. Chris Young hasn't been able to stay healthy either of the last two years, and wasn't any good this year even when he was. Basically, the Padres just need more good players anywhere they can get them.

Long-term need

For the long term the Padres are in nearly the same position as they are in the short term. They've got a young bat in Kyle Blanks testing the water in the big leagues, but they still need better players at nearly every position other than first base. The Padres have quite a few young outfielders and they should eventually be able to piece together a decent outfield. But the infield leaves something to be desired and the Padres still don't have any pitching depth at all. When Kevin Correia is your third best starter you know you're in trouble. Adding more upside arms should eventually help the Padres pitching-wise and the offense will eventually get better provided some of the young players develop.

Big leaguers on the market?

Injuries to Peavy and Young should keep them in San Diego for at least the rest of the year. The team has already traded away Cla Meridith and Scott Hairston in seperate deals, so they don't have a lot of role players left ot trade. Moving Hairston at least got the Padres some nice young players from the A's. There have been rumors about an Adrian Gonzalez trade, but don't expect that to happen unless the Padres are absolutely blown away by an offer. Gonzalez is under contract through 2011 for very cheap and is the face of the franchise so the Padres have little reason to trade him. The only other player who would bring back a hefty return is Heath Bell, but the Padres have sounded reluctant to trade him as well.

Minor league strength

The minor league system has been rather thin for years now, and that (coupled with the payroll) has really been the downfall of the organization. The outfielders has quite a few prospects (especially if Blanks has to move there); guys like Jaff Decker, Cedric Hunter, and Kellen Kulbacki could be starters there in a few years. Coupled with Tony Gwynn Jr. and Chase Headley, they have lots of depth there.

They also have some pitching depth in the minors, but the problem is that most of them aren't going to be impact arms. Guys like Will Inman and Wade Leblanc are supposed to fill out the back of a major league rotation, not be some of your best pitching prospects. One player who could make a difference is Mat Latos, who was dominating in the minor leagues this season, going 8-1 with a 1.37 ERA in 72.1 innings across two levels.

The good news for Padres fans is that the team has begun committing more to drafting and signing high-quality amateur players. They drafted Donovan Tate with their first pick in 2009, considered by many to be the best high-schooler in the country. They also showed that they have become more committed to spending money on more expensive talent in the last year. Previously they were very frugal in this department, so this new committment could be a ray of hope that the organization is finally focusing on developing it's own players. Given the team's payroll, there may not be any other way.

Take on short-term money to win?

The Padres have the second lowest payroll in the majors (ahead of only the Marlins), they laugh at the idea of taking on payroll. They will be looking to shed expensive contracts wherever possible.

For more coverage of the Padres, check out Gaslamp Ball.