SB Nation - Josh Smoker

Washington Nationals: Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects 2009.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:11:20 -0000

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Jordan Zimmermann, the No. 1 prospect in the DC system last season, according to Baseball America's Aaron Fitt, will miss all of 2010 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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In November 2007, the first four players (and five prospects total) selected by the Washington Nationals in the '07 First-Year Player Draft found their way onto Baseball America's Aaron Fitt's 11/7/07 list of the Top 10 Prospects in the DC system. LHP Ross Detwiler, the Nationals' first 1st Round pick, taken sixth overall, immediately became the #2 prospect in the organization according to Mr. Fitt, behind only '06 1st Round pick Chris Marrero, an IF/OF taken 15th overall who, himself, had become the No. 2 prospect in his Draft year, and was now No. 1 overall. Michael Burgess an outfielder taken with the 49th pick of the 1st Round in 2007, as compensation for the LA Angels having signed Jose Guillen, became the 4th best prospect in the system, ahead of left-handers Jack McGeary (5), who was taken in the 6th Round in '07, and Josh Smoker (6), taken 31st overall in the 1st Round, as a compensation pick from the Cubs who'd signed Alfonso Soriano, as was Jordan Zimmermann, a RHP out of Auburndale, Wisconsin who debuted on the list at No. 7 after being selected with the 67th overall pick in the 2nd Round of the draft.

• '08-'09 After The JUMP...

Aaron Crow, the right-hander the Nationals selected with the 9th overall pick in the 1st Round of the 2008 Draft, almost certainly would have joined pitchers Jordan Zimmermann (1) and Ross Detwiler (2) atop Baseball America's Aaron Fitt's January '09 list of Washington's Top 10 Prospects...had he signed with the Nationals...2nd Round pick, outfielder Destin Hood, an eighteen-year-old out of Eight Mile, Alabama, made the highest debut on the list at No. 6, one spot ahead of Washington's 5th Round pick, catcher Adrian Nieto, a backstop out of Havana, Cuba and American Heritage High School in Florida, and two spots ahead of '08 15th Round pick J.P. Ramirez, then an 18-year-old outfielder from New Braunfels, Texas, who was described by Baseball America's Mr. Fitt as one of, "...a pair of high-ceiling prep outfielders," taken by the Nationals, along with Hood.

The Nationals' '09 Draft Class took over three spots on the lastest Top 10 List according to Baseball America's Aaron Fitt's November 2009 rankings of the organization's top prospects, with the '08 Class accounting for just two of the top ten, (No. 5 - SS Danny Espinosa, and No. 10 - OF Destin Hood), while the '07 Class produced the second-best prospect overall in Mr. Fitt's view, Derek Norris, the top-ranked catcher in the DC system for the second-straight year, who moved up from the sixth overall spot on the list to No. 2, and OF Michael Burgess, who drops from 4th in '08 to 9th of 10 in '09. '06 1st Round pick Chris Marrero (6) is still the top 1B prospect in the Nationals' system, though he drops three spots from last year to 6th overall, with 2004 3rd Rounder Ian Desmond (4) returning to the List for the first time since 2007 as the top shortstop in the system just ahead of Espinosa. Which leaves the No. 1 overall spot on Mr. Fitt's list, which goes to Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals' '09 1st overall pick; the No. 3 spot, which goes to the Nationals' second 1st Round pick, Drew Storen, taken 10th overall as compensation for Crow, and the 7th spot on Mr. Fitt's list, which goes to '09 2nd Round pick Jeff Kobernus, the first DC second baseman to make Baseball America's list since...well, ever.

Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 04:29:54 -0000

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The Franchise (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi, File)

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Top 20 Washington Nationals Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.

Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do so. The list and grades are based on a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all these players can be found in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book.

1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Grade A: He's done enough in Arizona to justify the Grade A rating in my opinion. We have to remember that he's a human being, but he is immensely talented.

2) Derek Norris, C, Grade B+: Somewhere on the Mickey Tettleton/Mike Napoli spectrum: high walks, lots of power, defense should be good enough, might not hit for average.

3) Drew Storen, RHP, Grade B+: Has put aside concerns about being an overdraft. Could help in pen very soon, future closer if all works out.

4) Danny Espinosa, SS, Grade B: Has some pop, steals bases, draws walks, very good glove. Scouts in Arizona love him.

5) Chris Marrero, 1B, Grade B: I don't think he's going to be a star, but with proper development he can be a solid regular.

6) Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Grade B-: Another guy who should be solid, though I'd like a larger pro sample size before going higher with the grade.

7) Michael Burgess, OF, Grade B-: borderline C+. Power potential, throwing arm, and youth are big positives, will take a walk, but strikes out a lot and batting average is quite low.

8) Justin Maxwell, OF, Grade C+: What you see is what you get: power, walks, speed, low batting average. Can they look past that and appreciate his secondary skills?

9) Ian Desmond, SS, Grade C+: I think he made some legitimate improvements, but not as much as the raw numbers indicate. BABIP probably unsustainable, and he needs to tighten his defense.

10) Bradley Meyers, RHP, Grade C+: One of several strike-throwing types with limited upside but good pitchability.

11) Destin Hood, OF, Grade C+: High power upside, with a high chance of failure. Could rank ninth or tenth.

12) A.J. Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Kansas State ace may move faster in relief.

13) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+: Need data from higher levels, but could be a Juan Pierre type. I don't mean that as an insult.

14) Aaron Thompson, LHP, Grade C+: Pitchability guy acquired from the Marlins. No longer a top prospect, but still a decent one.

15) Juan Jaime, RHP, Grade C: High-ceiling arm with strong fastball needs to improve secondary pitches. Could rise rapidly if he does so. Perhaps I should go with C+.

16) J.P. Ramirez, OF, Grade C: Production was somewhat disappointing in the New York-Penn League, but not terrible for context. Full-season data in '10 will be illuminating.

17) J.R. Higley, OF, Grade C: High-ceiling tools hound, didn't light up the NY-P but still has potential.

18) Paul Demny, RHP, Grade C: Went 3-11 with 5.14 ERA in the Sally League, but with 110 strikeouts in 105 innings. Could go a long way if he improves command.

19) Marco Estrada, RHP, Grade C: I have no actual evidence to support this, but I keep thinking he could have a surprisingly good season in 2010. Nothing left to prove in Triple-A.

20) Jeff Mandel, RHP, Grade C: Looked very good in Arizona Fall League relief action; he might sneak in some major league innings.

OTHERS: All Grade C: Evan Bronson, LHP; Clint Everts, RHP; Marcos Frias, RHP; Victor Garate, LHP; Luis Garcia, RHP; Trevor Holder, RHP; Hendry Jimenez, 2B; Taylor Jordan, RHP; Nathan Karns, RHP; Pat Lehman, RHP; Steve Lombardozzi, 2B; Jack McGeary, LHP; Tom Milone, LHP; Adrian Nieto, C; Brad Peacock, RHP; Atahualpa Severino, LHP; Josh Smoker, LHP; Greg Veloz, 2B; Dean Weaver, RHP; Josh Wilkie, RHP. Most of these guys could fit into the 16-20 spots, depending on what you want to emphasize.

The Nationals system has an amazing talent in Strasburg, and I'm also very high on Norris, Storen, and Espinosa. After that, it fades quickly. Hitters like Marrero, Burgess, Maxwell, Desmond, Hood, and Perez all have significant unanswered questions. All could be very good players, all could fail. There are several low-ceiling arms who could contribute in the majors soon (Meyers, Thompson, Estrada, Mandel, Wilkie, Garate), and there is also a group of live arms who have problems that need addressing.

The system has material to work with, particularly on the pitching side beyond Strasburg and Storen. They need to add bats with fewer questions, and it will be interesting to see what direction GM Mike Rizzo and his new staff take in the 2010 draft.

Federalbaseball.com Declares Jordan Zimmermann: The Washington Nationals' "Next Big Thing!"

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 08:13:44 -0000

The Washington Nationals, (with the addition of two compensatory draft picks which they received when Alfonso Soriano departed for Chicago as a free agent after the '06 season), found themselves with four picks in the first two rounds of the '07 MLB Amateur Draft, which they used to select Ross Detwiler, with DC's first pick, 6th overall, outfielder Chris Marrero, 15th, pitcher Josh Smoker, 31st, and with the 67th pick in 2007, out of Auburndale, Wisconsin and the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point, pitcher(and DH!) Jordan Zimmermann.

Mets Scout.com's Kevin J. Cunningham's December 22, 2006 article entitled, "2007 Draft Prospects", (which previewed the players Mr. Cunningham believed the San Francisco Giants, who held "6 picks in the top 62 picks" might select from from amongst the top collegiate and high school age prospects should they still be available when the Giants' turns to choose came around)...described Jordan Zimmerman(n) as a possible target for San Francisco with one of the later picks, since, as Mr. Cunningham wrote, "...the Giants always have a habit of finding good arms in unusual places, and Zimmerman(n) fits the bill,":

"...He works mostly in the low-90’s, but can ramp up to 95. He is still developing a slider and changeup, but has a huge slow curve that can baffle hitters and make his fastball look even faster. He may be a sandwich round choice, or might be gone by the time the Giants pick again in the 4th round."

Washington Times' writer Jay LeBlanc interviewed Zimmermann in the middle of his first full season as a professional in DC's system, on July 24th, 2008, and Mr. LeBlanc asked the young pitcher what his thoughts were when he was told he'd been drafted by Washington the previous summer:

"I was excited, my agent said it was a great team to get drafted by. The ballclub was struggling a little bit and they need some pitching, and he said, 'This is a good fit for you..."

Asked to, "'...talk a bit about the different pitches you throw and how you like to use them?'" Zimmermann essentially provided an update on the development of the selection of pitches Mr. Cunningham mentioned in the article I quoted above, telling the Times' Mr. LeBlanc:

"'I like to get ahead with my fastball. Late in the game I like to start guys out with the curveball and put them away with the slider. I'm developing a changeup right now; it needs a little work, but it's coming around."

By the time he arrived at Spring Training this season, after having posted a (3-1) record with a 1.65 ERA in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance with Class-A Potomac, and a (7-2) record with a 3.21 ERA in 20 starts with Double-A Harrisburg in 2008, Zimmermann's arsenal of pitches was described by DC Manager Manny Acta as an "electric four-pitch repetoire" in Washington Post writer Chico Harlan's Nationals Journal post entitled, "The Special, Electric and Great Jordan Zimmermann", which also quoted DC Pitching Coach Randy St. Claire who:

"...spoke of Zimmerman(n)'s 'great' arm, and 'great' mechanics, and, yes, 'great' feel for pitching..."

Through 8.1 IP, in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance, Jordan Zimmermann's struck out 10, walked 2, and allowed 4 hits, but no runs, and though he's yet to record a decision, the 22-year-old right-hander, "...has lived up the billing as the Nationals' best pitching prospect," so far this Spring according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, who also quotes Mr. St. Claire for an article entitled, "Zimmermann living up to promise", in which the DC Pitching coach states that the young starter is also reacting well to the pressure of competing, (along with several other young pitchers) for a starting role in the Nationals' '09 rotation, even when he's struggled:

"'I didn't see him try to do more [on the mound],' St. Claire said. 'He just kept going after it without his best stuff. I didn't see him get flustered. He is going to need to do that...He showed me that poise, that character that I see in him. That puts him very high on the scale."

?'s For the DC Faithful...

Has Jordan Zimmermann earned a spot it in the Nationals' '09 rotation?

If Shawn Hill's able to return...Zimmermann or Collin Balester?

Would you prefer to see both Zimmermann and Balester in the rotation?

Is Jordan Zimmermann the next big thing in DC?

Links and Links and...

Steven from FJB participated in an NL East Saber-Friendly Live Chat with Sky Kalkman from Beyond the Boxscore and Amazin' Avenue's Eric Simon amongst others, which makes for a good read.

I participated in an email interview with Alex Remington of Chop - n -Change, an Atlanta Braves blog, entitled, "Five Questions: Washington Nationals 2009", which was posted last night, and where I make bold predictions like, "Rizzo will the next GM", "John Lannan will have a .500 season", and, "Willingham's the one who'll get dealt".

Frank Howard In DC? The Nationals 29th In Keith Law's Organizational Rankings? A Forfeit In The DWL Championship Series???

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 03:25:33 -0000

BRING BACK HONDO!!!

"It was an organization -- with all due respect to the players I played with -- that didn't have enough depth of talent to compete with good ballclubs."

You'd be forgiven for thinking that's Tim Redding or some other recently departed Washington player remarking on their time in DC with the Nationals, but it's former Washington Senator Frank Howard in the quote above, which is pulled from MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, "Q&A with Frank Howard", (which is just that, a chat with the DC baseball legend, who recounts his time playing in the nation's capital - like the time he hit 10 HR's in 20 AB's - and humbly accepts his place in the city's baseball history with some prompting from Mr. Ladson, who has a hard time hiding his admiration for Frank Howard, the man himself, and his accomplishments), but in talking about the Senators' struggles, Mr. Howard is inadvertently highlighting the long history of futility Washington franchises have suffered through, which has somehow never dampened Mr. Howard's enthusiasm for the District and its fans...

(ed. note - "Admittedly, everything I know about Frank Howard i've learned since my first day in RFK, when I saw the white seats in the outfield and wondered...? But Howard's story was my first introduction to DC baseball history, and along with Walter "Big Train" Johnson's, it remains one of my favorites."

Hendo, also known as Mike Henderson, who writes Hendo's Hutch for Nationals Pride.com, has been championing the cause of Frank Howard's return to DC in the blogosphere, while Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin has done the same in print. Sign a petition to show your support for FRANK HOWARD'S RETURN TO DC HERE...")

Top Prospects...

As a follow-up to Dave from the Nationals News Network's post here yesterday entitled, "Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects: Nats Conspicuously Absent", which noted the inclusion of one DC prospect on the Top 100 list, and examined the release of the ESPN.com writers' 2009 rankings of the Nationals' Top 5 Prospects, I decided to take a look back at Mr. Law's '08 list as well to see how it compared to Baseball America's Aaron Fitt's last two lists of the "Top 10 Prospects: Washington Nationals"...

ESPN.com's Keith Law's 2008 List...

1. Ross Detwiler, lhp

2. Chris Marrero, 1b

3. Jordan Zimmermann, rhp

4. Josh Smoker, lhp

5. Michael Burgess, rf

Baseball America's Aaron Fitt's 2008 List...

1. Chris Marrero, of/1b

2. Ross Detwiler, lhp

3. Collin Balester, rhp

4. Michael Burgess, of

5. Jack McGeary, lhp

After agreeing on the first two picks, (though in reverse order), Aaron Fitt's choice of Collin Balester as the 3rd best prospect seems better in retrospect, since Balester did debut in '08, but Jordan Zimmermann's not far behind, and is in fact expected to compete for a spot in the Nationals' 09 rotation. Along with Michael Burgess, who also makes both lists, each writer chose one of the Nationals' left-handed starters, Mr. Law, Josh Smoker, and Mr. Fitt, Jack McGeary, (who appears at #6 on Mr. Fitt's list, as I imagine Smoker would on Mr. Law's, were it expanded to include the Nationals' top ten prospects as well), so there's not much difference here.

ESPN.com's Keith Law's 2009 List...

1. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP

2. Michael Burgess, RF

3. Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS

4. Ross Detwiler, LHP

5. Chris Marrero, LF

Baseball America's Aaron Fitt's 2009 List...

1. Jordan Zimmermann, rhp

2. Ross Detwiler, lhp

3. Chris Marrero, 1b

4. Michael Burgess, of

5. Jack McGeary, lhp

Jordan Zimmermann's #1, that much both writers agree. Esmailyn "Smiley" Gonzalez, Washington's 19-year-old shortstop is included in Baseball America's Aaron Fitt's list, but not nearly as high up as on Mr. Law's, landing 10th in Mr. Fitt's estimation, after having won the Gulf Coast League's '08 batting title by hitting .343 in 51 games and 181 at bats in which he collected 62 hits, 12 doubles, 3 triples, 2 HR's, 33 RBI's, 29 walks, 19 K's, a .431 OBP, .475 SLG and a .906 OPS. Does that warrant a leap ahead of Detwiler and Marrero even if both had disappointing seasons? Outside of "Smiley's" ranking, the only difference in the two lists (other than the order) is Mr. Fitt's inclusion of Jack McGeary, (who hasn't made either of Mr. Law's lists), in his own Top 5 for the second straight year.

So how, if both writers basically included the same players on their lists in each of the last two seasons, did Baseball America decide that the Nationals' Organization was 9th best in the Majors last season while Mr. Law has the DC system at #29 overall in his latest Organizational Rankings, which were published earlier this week? Is it possible that Baseball America is going to drop the Nationals anywhere close to 20 spots when they publish their own list?

Dominican Winter League Championship Series - Game Three...FORFEITED???

Game Three of the Dominican Winter League's Championship series was...

Forfeited by the Gigantes del Cibao? What the heck? An LA Angels blog, Three Days of Cryin', has the only report I could find, in a post entitled, "Game 3 - Continued", and the forfeit is apparently the result of the Gigantes del Cibao protesting the suspension of one of their players. I'll have more on this situation when it becomes available...

eMb

Poll

Arbitration $'s...Ryan Zimmerman vs The Washington Nationals...Whose Side Are You On?

Ryan Zimmerman at $3.9M?

36 votes

The Nationals at $2.75M?

28 votes

DC Front Office? Will you please sign Ryan Zimmerman to a long-term deal? Please?

127 votes

191 votes | Poll has closed

A Tale Of Two Prospects, A Year In the Lives Of Washington Nationals' Prospects Chris Marrero And Ross Detwiler.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:47:23 -0000

On November 7, 2007, Baseball America writer Aaron Fitt's report entitled, "Top Ten Prospects: Washington Nationals", had Chris Marrero, an 18-year IN/OF who'd just completed his second season in the DC system, and 21-year old left-hander Ross Detwiler, Washington's 1st pick, 6th overall in the '07 Draft, listed as the first and second highest-ranked prospects, respectively, in the Nationals' organization, and MLB.com had the two listed (in the same order) as the top prospects from Washington, 31st and 37th overall in baseball, in their league-wide rankings before the 2008 MLB season entitled Top 50 Prospects in Baseball, which was subtitled, "New faces welcomed into elite group".

Marrero had been selected with the Nationals' second 1st Round pick in 2006, behind only pitcher Colton Willems, as part of an '06 Draft Class that also featured hurlers Cory VanAllen, Zechry Zinicola and Adam Carr, but it was the '07 Draft Class, which included not only Detwiler, but pitchers Josh Smoker, Jordan Zimmermann and Jack McGeary, as well as fielders Michael Burgess and the recently-dealt Jake Smolinski, that truly impressed, earning Baseball America's distinction as the, "'Best Draft in the Industry' as part of Baseball America's annual Draft Report Cards," according to an Official Washington Nationals' Press Release from 10/26/07.

Chris Marrero played just 70 games for the Potomac Nationals in 2008 before a collision during a play at the plate resulted in a broken right fibula and ligament damage to his ankle, requiring surgery and costing the 19-year-old P-Nats' first baseman the remainder of his third professional season. Marrero posted a .250 AVG in the short season, to go along with 15 doubles, 2 triples, 11 HR's and 38 RBI's in 256 AB's. Washington Times' writer Mark Zuckerman's article about Marrero's season ending entitled, "Top prospect out for season after leg injury", quoted DC GM Jim Bowden's assessment of the injury's impact on Marrero's development:

"When you have a setback like this, it obviously affects your timetable to the big leagues,' Bowden said. 'But long run, he'll be fine. We'll get him healthy. And luckily, if you're going to have a broken leg somewhere, first base is probably the best place for it to happen.'"

The reports on Ross Detwiler's 2008 campaign varied throughout the season as he struggled early but ended up participating in the P-Nats Class-A Carolina League Championship run. Washington Times' writer Ben Goessling summed up the tone of most of what's been written about Detwiler's '08 development, in a 10/1/08 article entitled, "Player Development Coming Slowly, Surely", where Mr. Goessling wrote that:

"...left-hander Ross Detwiler stagnated at Potomac, his mechanics going through an overhaul that robbed the 2007 first-rounder of consistency much of the year."

Detwiler spoke to MLB.com's Bill Ladson in an article entitled, "Detwiler learning lots in the desert", where he explained what he thought were the reasons for his somewhat dissapointing (8-8) 2008 record, and the 4.68 ERA he put up in the 26 starts and 124.0 innings pitched:

"'I got away from throwing strikes,' he said. 'The hitters were getting fastballs on fastball counts. If they know that a fastball is coming they can sit on it and hit it hard somewhere. Later in the season, I started to get ahead of people a little more and make more quality pitches.'"

Detwiler recovered down the stretch and pitched well in the Postseason with Potomac, and this fall the 22-year old worked out of the bullpen for the Peoria Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League, posting a 4.63 ERA with no decisions in 9 appearances and 11.2 IP in which he allowed 16 hits, 6 ER's, 2 HR's and 4 walks with 7 K's. Nationals' Pitching Coach Randy St. Claire visited the Saguaros and reported back to MLB.com's Bill Ladson for an article entitled, "St. Claire visits AFL prospects", where he provided the following assessment of Detwiler's game:

"'He has been working very hard on keeping his lines to where he can [throw the ball on] both sides of the plate,' said St. Claire. 'Ross commanded the ball pretty decently. It was really nice to see him make that adjustment. I know he is working hard at it. That is something it takes a little while to correct. He was a little inconsistent with the curveball. He did throw some good ones, however."

We won't know how the successes and struggles of the 2008 season affected the status within the Nationals' system of the two prospects in Baseball America's eyes until their rankings of the Top 10 Prospects in the DC Organization for 2009 drop on January 7th of the new year, (according to Baseball America's own posted calendar), but a glimpse of the attitude towards Washington's prospects amongst the baseball cognoscenti was provided recently by John Sickels of Minor League Ball.com, who presented his list of the, "Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2009", which found Marrero and Detwiler, (who Mr. Sickels had ranked first and second, respectively, in his 2008 Prospect list), now ranked as the third and fourth best prospects, (again, respectively), in the organization behind two members of Detwiler's '07 Draft Class, pitcher Jordan Zimmermann, (1), and outfielder Michael Burgess, (2).