SB Nation - Ramon Castro

Lester Comes Through, BoSox Roll ChiSox 6-1

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 23:41:21 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

It's always nice when you have to choose whether it was the dominant pitching or productive offense that was the story of the game. Let's go with pitching for now. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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After dropping the first two games of the series by a combined score of 17-3, the Sox looked to Jon Lester to play the role of stopper--a role he filled perfectly. After allowing a single and a walk to the first two Chicago batters, Lester induced a bloop fly ball which Dustin Pedroia made a fantastic play on, doubling Scott Podsednik off of second and averting a first-inning disaster. After that, he was nearly untouchable, allowing only 3 hits and a walk in 7 scoreless innings, throwing 122 pitches.

The offense showed some life through the first 3 innings, but didn't score until the 4th when Jason Bay singled and Mike Lowell homered to left on a John Danks fastball. Another Bay single would plate Jacoby Ellsbury for a 3rd run in the 5th.

The White Sox would cut the lead to 2 runs in the 8th as Billy Wagner allowed his first earned run with the Red Sox on an absolute bomb by Ramon Castro. He would retire the next 2 batters before Bard came in and struck out Paul Konerko on 3 pitches.

Victor Martinez put the game out of reach, hitting a 3-run homer off of Octavio Dotel. Jonathan Papelbon gave up only a single in the 9th in closing out the game.

The Sox will look to earn a series split as they send a struggling Josh Beckett to the mound against "Mr. Perfect" Mark Buerhle. Buerhle has been hittable of late, giving up 35 hits over his last 23 innings, but has managed to avoid too much damage.

Robbie and ribbies reconcile their differences, gets pied in 5-2 10-inning win

CrazyYankeeChick — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 04:50:20 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

"This could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship [with RISP hits]."

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Sometimes I think the new Yankee Stadium was built in Narnia. Or through the looking glass. Maybe mystique characterized the House That Ruth Built, but the 2009 season has been trotting out one "Nope, didn't see that one coming" experience after another.

If it's not a 12K loss from AJ, or 3 straight walk-off wins in a row, or a game going scoreless for 15 innings, then it's our 2B overcoming his RBI allergy to end a rainy 10 inning night in the Bronx with a win.

When I went to pick up Chinese food in the 4th inning, I was legitimately concerned that by the time I returned from the corner, the game would be in the 8th inning. Just like the aforementioned 15 inning marathon, there was the definite kernel of expectancy that this game was flying by so fast, we'd wrap this up in no time.

CC was dealing, as CC is wont to do, eating up innings, collecting Ks like they're stamps on his Tasti-D-Lite card, shutting down Chicago, as economic with his pitch output as he is liberal with his caloric intake.

It was so seamless that I went into a food coma post Lo-Mein, only to awake to a 2-1 game in the 7th.

Serves me right. It was like the gods of baseball were punishing me for catching some Zzzz's during the game. If CC can wait til the game's over to eat, I should be able to, too. (I'm sorry, his girth will never, ever, ever cease to send me into fits. It's at an all-time high today on account of my buddy at the game alerting me that his music selection is "I love it when you call me Big Poppa." Few things have made me happier than this information.)

But despite the shallow 2-run comeback, the Yanks were able to best the White Sox, bookending the game with long-balls--a solo from #1 hitter in the captain's first at-bat of the game....and then a 3-run rocket from our #7 hitter in the 10th inning. (Check out those numbers. Interestingly enough, the historical Mega Millions numbers for tonight? 1, 17, 31, 37, with Powerball 31. What's more, the only innings either team scored were in the 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 10th.)

And for some more relevant information on the game:

CC deserved the win, but his ND is proof that baseball always evens itself out in the long run, as he certainly didn't deserve a W in the last Chicago series. Even though the ND broke his 6-game winning streak, his pitches are somehow improving with every game. His control is so impeccable at this point that he could probably knock a beetle off the ump's shoulder on command.

Brian Bruney got the win, and I just realized that this sloppy clown is 4-0. Eh, the race doesn't always go to the swiftest, I guess. Congrats, #38. Way to save the game.

Phil Hughes is beyond filthy. If Girardi hadn't pitched him, I think Yankee fans would have staged a coups. This Thor-like supergod of relievers threw 14 pitches, 10 for strikes, and struck out Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye in his 1-2-3 inning, all of which were called out on swinging strikes. I actually got chills watching him work.

The agility and sure-handedness of our fielders can't be discounted in this win. A-Rod made 2 key run-saving plays that keep the Sox at bay, including one beautiful diving stop to keep Jayson Nix's screaming shot in the infield. He really makes it look easy sometimes.

Outfielders should be able to throw out runners at home. It's part of their job description. I don't ask my boss for a raise for coming into work on time. That said, I still gotta give credit to Swish for his throw to the plate that enabled Molina to tag out Ramon Castro. After watching the defense so determined to not give the Sox the lead in that inning, I realized just how resolute and unflinching the Yankees have become.

Melky Cabrera certainly likes him some Mark Buehrle. Our sparky outfelder's been in a bit of a slump lately, but once again came to life against Chicago's ace. Hopefully this fires him up enough to get back into the black.

Yesterday I said that if Jeter went hitless today, I was going to be delivering to his locker Minka Kelly's cheerleading vest with a fish wrapped inside. Fortunately, he saved her from this fate literally right off the bat. That's love.

The wind was a discernibly mitigating factor in tonight's game, and flyouts fooled me on more than one occasion. I can't even think about what this meant in terms of Sterling warning track antics, without my head starting to hurt.

The RISP situation: 1 for 7. Chicago was 3-8. I'll take any kind of win, and knowing how poorly the Yanks tend to work in the rain, I am thrilled about the way they played, particularly in light of the other Sox coming back to beat the Jays.

The more significant RISP situation: When Robbie hit that blast, you could see in his face the liberation he felt from the statistical stigma branding him up til that point. "You see the statistics up on the board," he said. "I want to get better." Consider yourself unshackled, kid. That shot meant more than the win. It meant the start of an RBI tear.

...Which will come in handy since tomorrow they send in Sergio Mitre to face Jose Contreras. I don't see this going as neatly as tonight, from either end.

We're mere days away from September, and the Yanks are still in first, as they've been for now 40 days and nights, and I expect Robbie and the Yankees to tear through the next month, plowing through their opponents like an army of Pac-Men who just binged on power pellets.

Let's keep it going.

-CYC

2009 Bill James Projections: Mets Hitters

Eric Simon — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:00:06 -0000

No sooner has the 2008 season ended than we're blessed with the first batch of 2009 projections. These come courtesy of ACTA Sports and The Bill James Handbook. The BJH will be availabe on November 1st, months ahead of most of the other baseball annuals, which is great because we get numbers to play with, though we have to accept that the rosters here could change quite a bit by the time next season rolls around.

Here we go.

Hitter	Age	G	AB	HR	RC	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
Marlon Anderson	35	74	115	2	13	0.252	0.312	0.357	0.669
Carlos Beltran	32	156	593	30	111	0.277	0.369	0.501	0.870
Luis Castillo	33	123	448	3	57	0.281	0.362	0.344	0.706
Ramon Castro	33	56	167	8	25	0.257	0.330	0.455	0.785
Endy Chavez	31	105	234	2	27	0.274	0.317	0.363	0.681
Ryan Church	30	128	444	16	69	0.275	0.348	0.457	0.805
Carlos Delgado	37	151	558	33	98	0.263	0.361	0.502	0.863
Damion Easley	39	112	278	8	33	0.248	0.317	0.385	0.702
Nick Evans	23	50	162	6	27	0.284	0.341	0.488	0.829
Fernando Martinez	20	128	436	9	53	0.264	0.314	0.390	0.704
Daniel Murphy	24	139	456	14	80	0.296	0.371	0.478	0.849
Jose Reyes	26	160	669	14	108	0.290	0.349	0.448	0.798
Brian Schneider	32	125	405	9	48	0.247	0.328	0.368	0.696
Fernando Tatis	34	88	261	10	36	0.253	0.330	0.429	0.759
David Wright	26	160	618	33	136	0.311	0.402	0.552	0.953

Let's remember that these are just projections. Some numbers and algorithms went into a computer and these popped out. That's a really simplistic way of looking at what is surely a very complex system, and I don't describe it that way to make light of all of the work that goes into developing and implementing a projection system. Forecasting ballplayers may seem like a frivolous use of time, but there is little doubt that most if not all big league teams use player projections of some form or another. They'd be crazy not to use the many years of baseball data that exists to analyze the likelihood of certain performance results for free agents, players on their own team or potential trade targets on other teams. Projections don't tell us what is guaranteed to happen, but they do tell us what could very likely happen, and that should at least be a part of any reasonable player analysis, whether you're in a big league front office or a humble website sending information through this sophisticated series of tubes we call the internets.

Some thoughts on the Mets, bullet-wise.

Marlon Anderson should be jettisoned post-haste. He is not better than Val Pascucci. I'm not sure he's better than Morten Anderson. Why was it necessary to sign him for two years? Anyone?
Carlos Voltron is a god.
Luis Castillo is a Met.
Can Brian Schneider never start again? Can Ramon Castro please stay healthy? The 80 points separating their OPS projections is not insignificant.
Endy Chavez isn't much of a hitter, though he could be one of the most undervalued commodities in baseball.
Ryan Church's projection isn't terrible, but it's not great, either. For comparison, Lastings Milledge's projection is .281/.347/.439. I don't feel so well.
Carlos Delgado, not so bad. The computer thinks Carlos will continue his resurgence and put up an OPS similar to his 2008 mark, which is middle of the pack among big league first basemen.
Damion Easley: Time to retire.
Mark my words: Nick Evans will not OPS .829. Nice thought, though.
Fernando Martinez: Not ready for the big time yet.
Daniel Murphy is the Irish Hammer. Close your eyes. Now picture the Irish Hammer. Now picture him hitting .296/.371/.478 as a 24-year-old. Now picture him doing it at second base. Feel better? How did you read all of that with your eyes closed, eh? Cheater.
I'm a little disappointed in Jose Reyes's projection. That .798 OPS would be a 35-point dropoff from his 2008 line. I'll take the over on this one.
Is it wrong to wish that Brian Schneider had been driving that car in DR and not Ambiorix Burgos? Yea. Probably.
The Mets could do far worse than Fernando Tatis as a righty bat off the bench, Or: Sixteen words I couldn't have fathomed writing a year ago.
David Wright: Yea, let's trade this bum.

I'll post the pitcher projections tomorrow, and then some free agent/trade target projections on Wednesday.