The Value of Prospects Revisited

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 14:32:14 -0000

1. J.D. Drew
2. Rick Ankiel (as a pitcher)
3. Eric Chavez
4. Bruce Chen
5. Brad Penny
6. Michael Barrett
7. Ryan Anderson
8. Pablo Ozuna
9. Ruben Mateo
10. Matt Clement

Does this list mean anything to you? Joe Posnanski at Inside Baseball for SI.com tells us that it is the Baseball America's Top Ten prospect list from 10 years ago. How many guys on this list, he asks would you not have risked giving up for a superstar Cy Young pitcher? It kind of makes you think the value of prospects has gotten skewed lately in placing too much value in them. But, and it's a big but-the second 10 names on that same list include Roy Halladay, Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran. So, trading away prospects by a team wanting to win today is always a risk.

The reason you see John Smoltz's picture in this post is to bring home the never-resolved issue of prospects-for-stars debate. In 1987 the Tigers were in a tight race but needed a proven starter to bolster their rotation. They traded prospect Smoltz for 36-year old Doyle Alexander.

He had not pitched particularly well for almost two years. He had played for eight teams in his Magellan-like career, and he played for the Yankees twice. On top of that, he was not exactly known for his clutch pitching*. There were a lot of reasons to think that Alexander would not be much of a factor.

*Alexander's postseason numbers were abominable -- he was 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in the playoffs and World Series. And that year in the playoffs, he would get bombed in both his starts.

Instead, he was THE factor. Alexander was great -- in the regular season at least. He started 11 times in the final month and a half as Detroit and Toronto went back and forth in the standings. And ... Detroit won all 11 times he started. It was remarkable. He threw three complete-game shutouts. He punched up a 1.53 ERA. On Sept. 27, with the Tigers 2 1/2 games behind Toronto, he threw 10 2/3 innings and gave up only one earned run to beat the Blue Jays. His next start, he beat the Jays again to push the Tigers into first place to stay.

It was one of the greatest pennant race performances in the history of the game. You never want to give too much credit to one player, but Detroit won the American League East in 1987 because of the Doyle Alexander trade. There was much joy in Detroit. Then the Tigers lost the ALCS to Minnesota in five games.

The Tigers did not win the pennant that year but they undeniably got as far as they did with the sizable contribution they got from Alexander. Smoltz, of course went on to have an impressive career but he was not ready at that time to fill the role Doyle Alexander did.

The way prospects are brought along by teams now, with signing bonuses and what-not, it's not as easy to give them up unless the post-season is in sight-and even then....

This debate never ends. Feel free to weigh in with your opinions..

Mr. Melvin's Rangers

TheJay — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 04:45:51 -0000

An ongoing joke these days goes that whenever the Brewers sign a free agent or pick up a player on waivers, there's some connection between that player and Doug Melvin's time as the GM of the Texas Rangers. The latest example of this connection can be found in the minor league contract given to outfielder Jason Bourgeois. Bourgeois was selected by the Rangers in the 2nd round of the 2000 draft while Melvin was GM and spent five seasons in the Texas system. After bouncing around the minors for a couple more years he finally got a taste of the majors with the White Sox last season. He's been signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

The Brewers have had Melvin-era Rangers contribute greatly since Melvin joined the Brewers after the 2002 season. Consider Gabe Kapler last year, Doug Davis, Dan Kolb, Francisco Cordero, and so on. So this begs the question, how many ex-Rangers has Doug Melvin picked up while in Milwaukee? Luckily, it's possible to use minor league rosters, draft reports, and other transactions information to put together a list.

Doug Melvin was hired as the General Manager of the Texas Rangers on October 10, 1994. He remained in that role until October 7, 2001. During that time he guided the team to three division championships, oversaw seven drafts, and was part of the massive Alex Rodriguez free agent signing. After spending much of the 2002 season with the Red Sox as a consultant, Melvin was hired as the 8th General Manager in Brewers history on September 25, 2002. I trust we're all sufficiently aware of his accomplishments in that role.

Of all the Rangers and Brewers to come and go under Melvin's leadership, it turns out only twenty-nine overlap. Of those, fifteen have played in the major leagues for the Brewers, no doubt increasing the perception of Melvin favoring Rangers re-treads. Here are the lucky twenty-nine, with those who reached the majors for Milwaukee in bold:

Name	Position	Years with Rangers	Years with Brewers
Justin Backsmeyer	RHP	1998-2001	2003
Jason Bourgeois	2B/OF	2000-2004	2009
Royce Clayton	SS	1998-2000	2003
Jason Conti*	OF	1998	2003
Francisco Cordero	RHP	2000-2006	2006-2007
Tim Crabtree	RHP	1998-2001	2003
Doug Davis	LHP	1996-2003	2003-2006
R.A. Dickey	RHP	1996-2006	2007
Richie Gardner	RHP	2001 draft, did not sign	2008
Rick Helling	RHP	1992-2001	2005-2006
Gabe Kapler	OF	2000-2002	2008
Dan Kolb	RHP	1995-2002	2003-2004, 2006
Mike Lamb	3B	1997-2003	2008
Chris Magruder	OF	2001	2004-2005
David Manning	LHP	1992-1998	2003
Ruben Mateo	OF	1994-2001	2007
Kevin Mench	OF	1999-2006	2006-2007
Chris Michalak*	LHP	1998, 2001-2002	2004
Warren Morris	RHP	1996-1998	2005
Laynce Nix	OF	2000-2006	2006-2008
Scott Podsednik	OF	1994-1995, 1998-2000	2003-2004
Andy Pratt	LHP	1998-2001	2004-2006
Erasmo Ramirez	LHP	2001-2006	2008
Reggie Rivard	RHP	2000-2003	2004
Julio Santana	RHP	1990-1998	2005
Scott Sheldon	IF	1998-2001	2004
Junior Spivey*	2B	1998	2004-2005
Keith Stamler	RHP	2000-2005	2005
Lee Stevens	1B	1996-1999	2003
Justin Thompson	LHP	2000-2005	2006

* - Conti, Michalak, and Spivey spent 1998 playing for the Rangers' AA affiliate even though they were Diamondbacks prospects. Arizona, as an expansion team, did not have an AA affiliate that season.

Okay, so maybe Conti and Spivey shouldn't count because they weren't ever truly Rangers farmhands despite spending a season with the Texas staff. Ditto for Gardner since Melvin probably only got a cursory report on him after the draft. Still, though, it's quite a list of Melvin-era Rangers turned Brewers.

For those interested in how Melvin acquired these guys while in Texas, here's the breakdown:

Thirteen of the players listed were drafted or signed their first contract while Melvin was the Rangers GM.
Seven (Clayton, Cordero, Crabtree, Kapler, Magruder, Ramirez, and Thompson) were acquired via trade.
Four (Helling, Manning, Podsednik, and Santana) were already with the Rangers when he took over.
As mentioned, Conti and Spivey were really Arizona prospects who were loaned to the Rangers system.
Scott Sheldon and Lee Stevens were signed as free agents.
Chris Michalak was a waiver claim.

Since drafting players from your previous organization isn't possible, naturally you begin to focus more on other ways to acquire them. Here's how Doug Melvin acquired his ex-Rangers as Brewers GM:

A full nineteen of the twenty-nine players were signed as free agents.
Six (Conti, Cordero, Mench, Nix, Pratt, and Spivey) were picked up through trades.
Richie Gardner, Mike Lamb, and Scott Podsednik were waiver claims.
David Manning was a Rule 5 pick in 2003.

So there you have it. Over ten percent (15 of 144) of the players to appear in the majors with Milwaukee since 2003 spent time under Melvin in Texas. Jason Bourgeois will attempt to continue the tradition next year. Looking at the list of minor league free agents, I get the feeling he won't be alone...

SB Nation - Ruben Mateo

The Value of Prospects Revisited

Mr. Melvin's Rangers