SB Nation - Stephen Marek

Best Angels Prospect Performances, Going Back to 2005

rghan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:02:48 -0000

Below is a compilation of the Halos' best prospect performances going back to 2005. I give two run values for position players: the "+ bat" is how many more runs that prospect created over their league's average player according to a widely-used runs created formula. The "+ glove" is how many runs that player saved in the field according to Sean Smith's "TotalZone" defensive metric. For pitchers, I compare their runs allowed per game to the league average to generate the "runs saved" metric. Both pitchers and position players are then ranked by "WAR," or "Wins Above Replacement," which is an inclusive metric that incorporates each player's runs values with adjustments for playing time and position. Using the replacement-level concept for minor leaguers brings up all kinds of theoretical sabermetric questions, but I have my reasons for keeping the calculations as similar as I could to those used for major leaguers.

Lastly, keep in mind that WAR is a counting stat and minor leaguers play at least 10% fewer games than their major league counterparts, so a 3.9 WAR here is more impressive (for temporal reasons only) than a 3.9 WAR over a 162 game schedule.

30) Anthony Ortega, 2007, High A

7 wins, 11 losses. 163.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 127 K / 68 BB. +13 runs saved, 3.9 WAR.

29) Mike Napoli, 2005, AA

.237/.372/.508 with 31 HR's and 12 SB's. +18 bat, 3.9 WAR

28) Freddy Sandoval, 2008, AAA

.335/.389/.514 with 15 HR's and 6 SB's. +18 bat, +3 glove, 4.0 WAR

27) Hainley Statia, 2006, A and High A

.298/.380/.382 with 1 HR and 24 SB's. +7 bat, +12 glove, 4.0 WAR

26) Peter Bourjos, 2009, AA

.281/.354/.423 with 6 HR's and 32 SB's. +7 bat, +15 glove, 4.1 WAR

25) Sean Rodriguez, 2008, AAA

.306/.397/.645 with 21 HR's and 4 SB's. +24 bat, +6 glove, 4.1 WAR

24) Brok Butcher, 2007, High A and AA

6 wins, 9 losses. 139.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 77 K / 35 BB. +22 runs saved, 4.1 WAR

23) Trevor Bell, 2009, AA and AAA

7 wins, 7 losses. 140 IP, 2.70 ERA, 89 K/36 BB. +22 runs saved, 4.1 WAR

22) Sean Rodriguez, 2007, AA

.254/.345/.423 with 17 HR's and 15 SB's. +11 bat, +7 glove, 4.2 WAR

21) Matthew Brown, 2008, AAA

.320/.373/.580 with 21 HR's and 4 SB's. +25 bat, +6 glove, 4.3 WAR

20) Freddy Sandoval, 2007, AA

.305/.392/.468 with 11 HR's and 21 SB's. +21 bat, +3 glove, 4.4 WAR

19) Peter Bourjos, 2008, High A

.295/.326/.444 with 9 HR's and 50 SB's. +0 bat, +24 glove, 4.4 WAR

18) Trevor Reckling, 2009, High A and AA

9 wins, 9 losses. 154.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 122 K/78 BB. +25 runs saved, 4.4 WAR

17) Nick Adenhart, 2006, A and High A

15 wins, 4 losses. 158.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 145 K/42 BB. +27 runs saved, 4.5 WAR

16) Anthony Norman, 2008, High A

.257/.381/.468 with 15 HR's and 36 SB's. +13 bat, +22 glove, 4.5 WAR

15) Chris Pettit, 2006, Advanced Rookie Ball

.336/.445/.566 with 7 HR's and 5 SB's. +24 bat, +14 glove, 4.5 WAR

14) Reggie Willits, 2006, AAA

.327/.448/.426 with 3 HR's and 15 SB's. +12 bat, +19 glove, 4.6 WAR

13) Alexander Torres, 2009, AA

13 wins, 4 losses. 147.1 IP, 2.75 ERA, 149 SO/80 BB. +28 runs saved, 4.7 WAR

12) Roberto Lopez, 2008, Advanced Rookie Ball

.400/.480/.667 with 14 HR's and 3 SB's. +42 bat, -3 glove, 4.7 WAR

11) Joe Saunders, 2006, AAA

10 wins, 3 losses. 135 IP, 2.67 ERA, 97 K/38 BB. +31 runs saved, 4.8 WAR

10) Clayton Fuller, 2008, A

.260/.379/.425 with 9 HR's and 36 SB's. +20 bat, +9 glove, 4.8 WAR

9) Sean Rodriguez, 2009, AAA

.299/.4 00/.616 with 29 HR's and 9 SB's. +36 bat, -2 glove, 5.0 WAR

8) Chris Pettit, 2007, A and High A

.327/.411/.538 with 18 HR's and 30 SB's. +43 bat, -7 glove, 5.1 WAR

7) Howie Kendrick, 2006, AAA

.369/.408/.631 with 13 HR's and 11 SB's. +33 bat, +7 glove, 5.2 WAR

6) Carlos Ramirez, 2009, Advanced Rookie Ball

.389/.514/.695 with 10 HR's and 0 SB's. +36 bat, +8 glove, 5.3 WAR

5) Stephen Marek, 2006, A and High A

12 wins, 5 losses. 151.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 133 K/ 37 BB. +36 runs saved, 5.3 WAR

4) Alexia Amarista, 2009, A

.319/.390/.468 with 4 HR's and 38 SB's. +18 bat, +20 glove, 5.8 WAR

3) Howie Kendrick, 2005, High A and AA

.367/.406/.614 with 19 HR's and 25 SB's. +44 bat, +8 glove, 6.7 WAR

2) Sean Rodriguez, 2006, High A

.307/.387/.557 with 29 HR's and 15 SB's. +35 bat, +13 glove, 7.4 WAR

1) Brandon Wood, 2005, High A

.321/.383/.672 with 43 HR's and 7 SB's. +54 bat, +8 glove, 8.7 WAR

Alexander Torres: Best Angels Prospect Performance #4

rghan — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:11:46 -0000

4) Alexander Torres, 21 - LH SP, High A and AA

13 wins, 4 losses. 147.1 IP, 2.75 ERA, 149 SO/80 BB. +28 runs saved

According to the runs saved metric, Torres had the best season of any Halos pitching prospect since Stephen Marek and Joe Saunders shut down their respective leagues in 2006. Between Rancho Cucamonga and Arkansas, he posted a 57% groundball rate and a 1.01 K/IP ratio - pure gold from a sabermetric standpoint. However, the scouting perspective yields significant projection questions, like how likely is it that a 5'10", 160 pound pitcher continues to hold up under a starters' workload? Or, can he repeat his delivery reliably enough to show the necessary improvement in control? Or, can his sometimes-plus breaking ball stay consistent enough against better competition? It pains me that he's going to answer those questions in another organization, but the Halos FO is a scouting-centered bunch, are consequently much higher on Trevor Reckling's future, and Kazmir seems all the more valuable now that we're headed into a potentially Lackey-less future.

Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

Atlanta Braves Mid-Season Top-25 Prospects

gondeee — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:00:17 -0000

The hardest part about this Atlanta Braves mid-season top-25 prospects list has been deciding who the number-3 prospect should be, but I am satisfied with my decision. The first note about this list is a note I make about every top prospect list we do here at Talking Chop. I am not a scout, nor have I seen many of these players. These rankings are based on scouting reports from various sources and on my built-up knowledge of many of these guys over the years from following them on a day to day basis.

These prospects are ranked on a combination of their ultimate ceiling, what level they’ve completed, and the success they’ve had on the field. Some guys get moved down because they’ve hit a wall, other guys get moved up because they’re succeeding. Players who are no longer eligible for this list include Jordan Schafer, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, and Brandon Jones.

In the comments section of this post, list your top-25 mid-season Braves prospects. On Wednesday, we'll collect all of your top-25's and we'll have our combined Talking Chop top-25 Braves mid-season prospects. Make sure you list 25, or they won't be included, and get them posted by Wednesday afternoon.

1. Jason Heyward, OF – Jay-Hey has done everything that the Braves and their fans hoped he would this year, and the organization has seen fit to move him quickly this year. Quite amazing for a 19-year old to be succeeding at double-A. He’s the number-1 prospect in baseball, too. Pre-season Rank: 1

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B – Another 19-year old who finds himself at double-A, and holding his own. His homerun power is down, but I don’t think too many people are worried about – it will return in time and he’s still hitting doubles. Pre-season Rank: 4

3. Brett DeVall, LHP – Here is my choice for the third spot. It’s only his first full year in pro ball, but already he is distinguishing himself and holding hitters to a low BAA. He is converting the scouting reports into results. Pre-season Rank: 16

4. J.J. Hoover, RHP – A 10th-round draft pick a year ago who may find himself as a reliever down the road, but with his ability to get the strikeout he may profile as a closer. He has been very impressive this year. Pre-season Rank: NR

5. Julio Teheran, RHP – Still just 18, and finally showing some good work on the mound in Danville. He’s fallen a bit from where we thought he would be at this point, but again, there’s plenty of time for this 18-year old. Pre-season Rank: 10

6. Cole Rohrbough, LHP – He’s struggling for the first time in his baseball career, and he’s battling the time and distance of being away from his newborn – he may truly be at a crossroads where life intersects with the harsh demands of the baseball season. The talent is still there, we just have to have faith that he can harness it once again. Pre-season Rank: 6

7. Cody Johnson, OF – Johnson showed his power last year by leading the Braves organization with 26 homeruns. He’s likely going to shatter that this year, as he already has 22 homers. The strikeouts are also there, and he will have to control those before he moves up these rankings much more, but there’s a lot to like in the power department. Pre-season Rank: 13

8. Zeke Spruill, RHP – Another promising pick from last year’s draft, Spruill has been very consistent this season after a stellar debut last year. His emergence may be one of the big reasons the Braves were comfortable trading Jeff Locke. Pre-season Rank: 23

9. Randall Delgado, RHP – This 19-year old out of Panama is a bit more hittable than he was last year at Danville. Like many young pitchers he seems to be struggling with consistency. He’s keeping the strikeouts up, but he needs to avoid the big innings. Pre-season Rank: NR

10. Jacob Thompson, RHP – Here’s a guy who has gotten better just about every time out. After starting out in low-A Rome and not having too much success, he was moved up to high-A Myrtle Beach and has flourished. He held batters to an opposing average .100 points lower at the higher level. We need to keep a close eye on him, as he could move fast through the system (being a college pitcher), and he could be a real sleeper. Pre-season Rank: NR

11. Cory Gearrin, RHP – He’s been good at two levels this year, and has moved up the depth chart while going from being a setup man to a closer. He is really putting it together this year, keeping his hits allowed low and bringing down his walk totals. He’s also a guy who could help out in Atlanta as early as this year. Pre-season Rank: NR

12. Craig Kimbrel, RHP – A slightly disappointing performance, after a stellar debut last year. He’s still young, and perhaps he was moved too fast this year. The extra time at Rome seems to have helped, as he’s doing better in his second promotion to the Beach. Command still seems to be an issue at the higher level. Pre-season Rank: 14

(Placeholder) Mike Minor, LHP – Our first round pick in this year's draft still has not signed, but that seems to be the norm as only a handful of first rounders have signed with their teams. A pick this high, I suppose we should expect that the negotiations will last until just before the deadline. Minor will likely have a lot of success in the low minors as he is an accomplished college pitcher. I wonder how many levels the Braves will let him skip next year.

13. Richard Sullivan, LHP – He has had sporadic success at three different levels while throwing a ton of innings. He may eventually profile as a setup man, but I like this guy to be major league ready quick. Pre-season Rank: NR

14. Scott Diamond, LHP – He seems to be passing the double-A test, but the Braves organization has a history of being able to develop soft-tossing left-handers who succeed in the minors, but not in the majors. Still, Diamond is an interesting prospect. Pre-season Rank: 22

15. Eric Cordier, RHP – He’s having a strong year at high-A, though the walks are a big problem. He may wind up as a reliever, but there’s still time for him to turn into a solid mid-rotation starter. Pre-season Rank: 24

16. Edgar Osuna, LHP – The soft-throwing lefty has been slowed some by injuries, but he’s putting together some good work while tackling a mid-year promotion. He may profile more as a bullpen guy than a starter. Pre-season Rank: 17

17. David Francis, RHP – This guy is bubbling with talent, as many prospects are, and the Braves seem to be moving him quickly through the system, despite results that aren’t yet mind-blowing. Pre-season Rank: NR

18. Dimaster Delgado, LHP – The other Delgado from Panama, he may prove to have one of the big breakout seasons for the Braves organization. There are a lot of things to like here, and he’s certainly improved from last year. Pre-season Rank: NR

19. Stephen Marek, RHP – The walks are really catching up to him, and will have to be controlled before he can make a contribution in the big leagues. Still, he’s got a live arm, though the clock is ticking. Pre-season Rank: NR

20. Brandon Hicks, SS – He is possibly the biggest disappointment in the Braves system so far this season. We were expecting big things from Hicks, hoping he would build on his solid 2008 season, but all of his numbers are down, and down considerably. The power outage is most disappointing. Pre-season Rank: 12

21. Luis Sumoza, OF – He hasn’t made that leap yet, and after an unimpressive stint at Rome, he is struggling at the Beach. His power has eluded him and his strikeouts are way up. Pre-season Rank: NR

22. Adam Milligan, OF – A big bat whom the Braves have coveted for a long time (they drafted him three times). He’s the leader of the next wave of big power bats from the Braves system. Pre-season Rank: NR

23. Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg, 1B – Big power, big debut, but remember that it’s Danville, and RSF is a college hitter playing against younger pitchers. Still, because of his debut he’s worthy of being listed here.

24. Jose Ortegano, LHP – Another soft tossing lefty, he is handling the higher levels better since being moved to the bullpen. He does a good job of keeping runners off base, but his durability may be an issue, and it keeps him from being higher in these rankings. Pre-season Rank: NR

25. Rudy Darrow, RHP – He’s been slowed by injuries, so any judgment of him may have to wait until after the season. Still, he needs to work on getting left-handed hitters out before he can be taken more seriously.

Just missing, but given strong cosideration: Kevin Gunderson, Paul Clemens, Corey Rasmus, Benino Pruneda, Tyler Stovall, Eric Campbell (Pre-season Rank: 15), Matt Kennelly, Brett Oberholtzer, and Todd Redmond (Pre-season Rank: 18).

Atlanta Braves Minor League Recap: 7/3

yondaime4 — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:12:22 -0000

Gwinnett 0, Norfolk 5

J. Schafer 0-3 K
S. Marek 1IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K

So the Gwinnett Braves just can't muster any offense without Brooks Conrad. He must have been holding them afloat. Jordan Schafer has fallen off a bit and I wonder if he is still not fully healthy, or just not as good as we thought he was. I didn't know Stephen Marek had been promoted, but after some serious struggles in Mississippi early this season he calmed down a bit in his last few outings.

Mississippi 3, West Tenn 4

M. Young 2-4 RBI
C. Rodriguez 2-4 RBI

No Frederick Freeman or Jason Heyward yet in this game. I am sure we will see them tomorrow. I am also a little disappointed that with all the shuffling going on Matt Young didn't get the call up to Gwinnett. The guy has paid his dues and has been very solid for two season now in AA. Give the guy a chance.

Salem 10, Myrtle Beach 0

L. Sumoza 2-4 K
G. Rodriguez 1-3 K

Maybe the Pelican's really felt the hole that losing both Heyward and Freeman left in their lineup. The two new guys, Gerrardo Rodriguez and Luis Sumoza, appeared to handle it well in their first game at least. Sumoza is a guy we need to keep our eye on. He has just started to do it, but I would love to see him really tap into the wealth of tools he has.

Bowling Green 2, Rome 0

JJ Hoover 7IP 4H 1R 1BB 8K

Wow, another shutout? Hoover has just been getting better and better and he is making a case for himself being our top pitching prospect when the season is done. That is a race which is wide open at the moment and JJ Hoover has been the most consistent pitcher the Braves have run out there (apologies to Scott Diamond who has been solid and consistent as well).Also RSF did not get the promotion to Rome.

Princeton 3, Danville 2

RSF 2-4 HR(4)
J. Teheran 7IP 8H 2R 1BB 5K

You have to imagine that Teheran was incredibly efficient in this game to have been allowed to pitch 7 innings. He has been pretty impressive so far this season and if he keeps this up he might be the guy at year's end. I don't really understand why RSF didn't get the call. He is hitting a smooth .538 right now. Granted it is only 10 games, but most people don't usually do that through 10 games even when they are hot.

GCL Braves 2, GCL Yankees 5

K. Rose 3-4 RBI
E. Mejia 1-2 BB, K

Finally, one of my favorite players from last season gets back on the field. Ernesto Meji hit 73 XBH last season for Myrtle Beach but has been on the DL all season after what I think was a leg injury of some sort? (Little help on that one if anyone knows). Anyways, he doesn't walk a ton and he strikes out a lot, but the guy hits everywhere he goes. He is 24 at this point so he needs to get back playing if he wants to make an impact in the organization. I could see him having some useful major league seasons but not making any lasting impact unless he really turns around his plate discipline.

Atlanta Braves Minor League Recap: 6/11

yondaime4 — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 17:43:55 -0000

Scranton WB 9, Gwinnett 4

R. Gorecki 2-3 BB
B. Jones 1-4 RBI
D. Heath 3.1IP 3H 4R 5BB 3K

The same story as usual for Duente Heath as his walks caught up with him (he also had a wild pitch). Heath has always had pretty good stuff but he has always had issues harnessing it. I have said before that I thought it would catch up to him in AA though he pitched well there this year (still walking people). Maybe he will always be this Jekyll and Hyde type player who is unhittable one outing and kills himself the next.

Birmingham 4, Mississippi 1

T. Jones 1-4 2B
E. Campbell 1-3 2B, RBI, K, 2 E(10)
S. Diamond 6IP 4H 4R 3BB 8K

Scott Diamond pitched well in this game despite those runs given up (only one was earned). He basically came apart when Campbell botched a double play ball in the 6th. He also picked off two baserunners in this game. For the season Diamond's peripherals are pretty solid with a high groundball rate and acceptable walk and strike out numbers. Oddly though his home/road splits are almost identical. Also of note is after being horrible for the first two months of the season Stephen Marek has 6 straight scoreless outings under his belt.

Kinston @ Myrtle Beach - Cancelled due to Rain

Rome 2, Savannah 3

J. Santamaria 1-4 2B
C. Culver 1-4 2B, K
B. DeVall 6IP 7H 2R 1BB 5K

Another good start for one of the young Rome pitchers. Brett DeVall brought his ERA down to 2.11 for the season and has yet to allow a HR this season. I wonder how long they will keep him in Rome?

2009 Mississippi Braves Season Preview

yondaime4 — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 12:00:11 -0000

The Mississippi Braves are coming off a an amazing season that culminated in them winning the 2008 Southern League Championship. Last year's team was attrocious in the first half of the season finishing last. In the second half they were infused with the return of Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson's promotion and subsequent adjustment to the league. Todd Redmond was the SL Most Valuable Pitcher but he has moved on to AAA.

Last year's rotation was a huge strength for the Braves featuring Redmond, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen and James Parr. This year's staff is not quite as loaded as last season but it does carry some of the good arms from the juggernaut Myrtle Beach squad. Starters will most likely be Scott Diamond (this year's Todd Remond), Ryne Reynoso, Deunte Heath, Kyle Cofield and and Jerome Gamble. Heath and Gamble pitched for Miss. last year though Heath was roughed up a bit and Gamble was inconsistent. Diamond is underrated in my opinion and Cofield has some potential but he walks a ton of people and doesn't strike out many. Heath is similar in that respect.

The bullpen doesn't really have any known commodities outside of Stephen Marek (the only guy in Miss. on the 40 man). Jeff Lyman can start a little and Jonny Venters has been hurt a lot in his career but has a great arm. He might start in Gamble's spot but I don't know with his injury history. Ncik Fellman, Bryan Dumasnil, Rudy Darrow, Rafael Cruz (the old man on the team) and Brett Butts fill out the bullpen. Moises Hernandez (King Felix's older brother; crazy no?) Dustin Evans and Kevin Gunderson all start the season on the DL.

The catching should be solid with Phillip Britton (still one of my organizational favorites) and Jose Carmenaa. Britton won't kill the team with the bat and his defense had made strides in recent seasons. I honestly don't know a whole lot about Carmena other than he has been around a while. He is probably the typical defensive minded backup that the Braves are so fond of.

I think the infield for the M-Braves could crash or soar this year. 1B Kala Kaaihue returns with 2B Travis Jones, SS Brandon Hicks, 3B Eric Campbell, and 1B Ernesto Mejia will have the starting duties while Greg Creek, Javier Guzman and Kody Kirkland fill out the bench. Kaaihue was horrible to start the year in '08 but his final line showed an .874 OPS. He is a true 3 outcome player and his brother broke out last year in AA at the same age. Ernesto Mejia is an XBH machine but doesn't walk much and Ks a TON. Travis Jones has a lot of power for a 2B (and for someone 5' 9") and he can take a walk but he also Ks a bunch. Brandon Hicks has a ton of power and plays great defense but also Ks a bunch (do we see a theme yet?). Campbell is the best overall hitter on this team. I love the guy's bat but if he can't keep his shit together it won't matter. Long term he is our answer at 3B, but I don't have much faith in his ability to keep it together till he gets to the show.The infield has a crap ton of power and any of these guys could hit 20 homers this year but they are going to K 500 times.

The Mississippi OF is going to be incredibly underrated going into the season. The only guy that wows you is Hernandez and he does have several great skills. Matt Young was last year's team MVP in Mississippi and I am more than a little surprised to see him back. He hits for a decent AVG, can take a walk and steal a base. Jon Owings has a bunch of power and put together a solid season in a power drain of a park at the Beach last season. Willie Cabrera and Concepcion Rodriguez are similar players as both have some solid power and contact abilities and on base skills and neither one Ks a whole bunch. I would say that Cabrera is better in most areas and could have a break out type year this season.

The offense for the M-Braves is going to hit for a bunch of power and I think you could see a couple of guys surprise on this team but the pitching staff worries me just a little bit. Hopefully the offense will be good enough to keep them in games where the staff fails.

Braves Make Second Round of Spring Cuts

gondeee — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 17:20:27 -0000

The Atlanta Braves made their second roster cuts of the spring, optioning four players and re-assigning four others. Right-handed pitchers Steve Marek, James Parr, Todd Redmond and Luis Valdez were optioned to triple-A Gwinnett. Left-handed pitchers Francisley Bueno and Mariano Gomez and catchers Phillip Britton and Matt Kennelly were all re-assigned to minor league camp.

No surprise on these guys, though it's interesting we just had a puff piece on Mariano Gomez on the Braves site on the day he gets cut. Marek and Parr had not allowed an earned run this spring and both were performing above expectations. Redmond had been knocked around a bit, and Valdez was having some problem with his control, leading the team with five walks issued.

This round of cuts leaves Tommy Hanson and Chris Medlen as the only non-roster pitchers still left in Braves camp. Britton and Kennelly were the first position players cut this spring, neither one being a surprise.

There are now 44 active players in the Braves major league camp.