SB Nation - Fernando Rodriguez

Angels Minor League Report: (Or, "More Sean Rodriguez News")

rghan — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 22:36:18 -0000

Has PJ Phillips' strong August punched his ticket to Arkansas in 2010?

AAA Salt Lake Bees, 65 and 69

Sean Rodriguez, 2B, SS, OF - (27 AB's) .519/.594/1.000 with 2 Dbls, 1 Trpl, 3 HR's and 11 runs scored.

Our PTBNL in the Kazmir trade? Surely the Halos wouldn't send S-Rod to Tampa to become the sunshine state's next Dan Uggla... would they? Last week I mentioned that S-Rod is a difficult guy to value for both scouts and sabermetricians, but no one believes a 24-year-old middle infielder mashing a 1.029 OPS in AAA doesn't deserve a shot. I've never understood why he doesn't get more press, other than general confusion over PCL stat inflation, worrisome clumps of K's, and conflicting reports about his defensive chops. He'll be an allstar in a couple of years, and we'll look back at his minor league numbers and think, "how could anyone not see it coming?" He's collected 93 RBI's in only 101 games, by the way.

Matthew Brown, 3B, 1B - (16 AB's) .438/.500/.750 with 2 Dbls 1 HR, and 6 RBIs

Brown hit .322/.388/.437 this August, somewhat redeeming a disappointing season. Remember when he hit .468/.527/.787 across 47 spring training at-bats? I think that guy's still there, but it may take another organization to find him.

Brandon Wood, SS, 3B - (28 AB's) .321/.406/.643 with 3 Dbls, 2 HRs, and 4 K's/4 BB's

For the first time in recent memory, Wood's showing BOTH patience and power simultaneously; usually it's one or the other. At the end of last year, I was convinced that S-Rod was the more complete hitter. Then, due to Wood's '09 decline in K's and boost in contact rate, I came around to the general consensus that Wood has the most to offer offensively. Now... well, now I'm not so sure. I know the scouting reports say Brandon Wood has the better bat speed, the leverage, etc., but for the second year in a row S-Rod has posted a superior OPS by 70 points and upwards. That's got to count sooner or later.

Brett Salmon, rhsp - (1 start) 1 W, 5.2 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 5 K/5 BB

He tiptoed the baserunner-tightrope all night (is that a mixed metaphor?), but shut out the Colorado Skysox long enough to collect an important win. Despite a losing 2^nd half, the Bees are still in the division race, 4.5 games behind the Skysox but closing rapidly.

Robert Fish, lhrp - (1 appearance) .2 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER's, 0 K/1 BB

Fish has been an absolutely infuriating prospect to follow. He's a big lefty who can touch the mid-90's with his fastball and historically gets a decent number of K's. He also gets absolutely torched more often then he should. Between that and the injury trouble this year, it looks like the Halos are trying him out in the pen. I'm rooting for him.

AA Arkansas 28 and 33 (second half)

Alexander Torres, lhsp - (1 start) 1 W, 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER's, 8 K/2 BB

In his last 3 starts with the Travs, Torres was 2 and 0, allowed only 1 earned run and 12 hits over 17 innings, and had an 18 K/10 BB ratio. That's far better than any other starter in the Angels system has done lately, including Trevor Reckling (though to be fair, the latter guy is 1.5 years younger). We're going to miss you, Alex. Don't come back to haunt us.

Ryan Mount, 2B - (31 AB's) .419/.419/.484 with 2 Dbls

Mount is on a BABIP binge, racking up multiple hits in 6 of his last 8 games and hitting safely in his last 9. However, he walked just once and doubled just twice in that period, while striking out 7 times. Mount had a difficult return in July from a wrist injury - he hit just .179/.289/.205 that month - but his larger issues are three-fold: only warning track power outside of the Cal League, an inability to hit fellow lefties, and mediocre control of the strikezone, as evidenced by his 54 K/16 BBs. He'll likely get another shot at AA next year, and with a tad more strength, a tad more patience, and a tad more luck, could still turn in some monster seasons at the higher levels.

Fernando Rodriguez, rhrp - (3 appearances) 1 Sv, 5.2 IO, 2 hits, 0 ER, 10 K/3 BB

He got knocked around in the majors (2 runs in 2/3's of an inning), shellacked in AAA (.312 BAA), but is flat-out dominant in AA. What do we do with you, Fernando?

High A Rancho Cucamonga, 29 and 33 (second half)

Matthew Sweeney, 3B - (in 22 AB's since coming off the DL) .227/.370/.545 with 1 Dbl, 2 HR's, 8 RBI's, and 5 BB's

Sweeney's career line with the Angels' organization reads .285/.361/.492 over 953 plate appearances. In his allstar 2007 Cedar Rapids season, Matt hit more homeruns than better-known, older sluggers Mark Trumbo and Hank Conger. He made the Allstar Team in 2 of his 3 active seasons, and only missed the 3^rd because of injury. His k-rate has always been outstanding for a young slugger, and was improving year over year; he has solid plate discipline; and his power is already excellent with more projected. He might end up as a plus defender at first base. And, at 21, he's accomplished all that at the same age that Dallas McPherson was when the latter completed his first season in rookie ball. That's a good prospect. You can't root for a guy year after year, following their triumphs and wallowing in their set-backs, without feeling a personal loss when he leaves the organization. Good luck in Tampa, Matt.

PJ Phillips, CF, SS - (26 AB's) .346/.393/.500 with 2 Dbls, 1 Trpl, and 1 SB

Phillips keeps rolling along on a nifty little 7 game hitting streak. He's closing out August with a .321/.376/.464 line. He hit well last August too, but... does that mean he's mastered High A? What do the Halos do with the almost-23-year-old Phillips next year? Do they promote him and hope his hot month carries over? Or do they keep him in High A for the third time?

A Cedar Rapids, 33 and 27 (second half)

Alexi Amarista, 2B - (15 AB's) .467/.500/.667 with 3 Dbls and 2 SB's

Let's clear it up: Amarista WAS NOT removed from Friday's game because he is the PTBNL. Rather, he "tweaked his left leg," and is now listed as day to day (hat tip, futureangels.com). Before the mishap, he was doing as he does, getting on base, hitting for gap power, and swiping bags.

Darwin Perez, SS, 2B - (17 AB's) .529/.600/.647 with 1 Trpl, 3 BB's, 4 runs scored.

I. WILL. BE. IN. HIGH A. NEXT. SEASON. You can almost hear the determination reverberating in Perez' August stat line of .390/.462/.512. He's pushed his season average up to a respectable .256, and his OBP is fine at .350; it's in the power department that 5'10" Perez struggles. He's knocked a season high 7 extra base hits this month, and you can bet he'll be hitting the weight room hard over the offseason, so hopefully he'll show more pop next year.

Chris Scholl, rhrp - (2 appearances) 5.1 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER's, 10 K/0 BB

Scholl entered the year with more baseball pedigree than anyone else in Kernels bullpen, having been an 8^th round draft pick in '08 and made a successful professional debut, limiting the opposition to a .195 BAA in Orem. He may have been overshadowed for most of '09 by first Mike Kohn and then Andrew Taylor, but was simply awesome this week in the difficult role of long relief. He's posted a 3.68 ERA over 78.1 innings this year, and has 78 K's to 35 BB's with a .226 BAA.

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

Matt Swartz — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:38:48 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Joe Blanton closes out the series Sunday against Johan Santana. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Browse more photos »

After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

New Arms of the Week (4/27-5/3)

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 05 May 2009 02:41:15 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Robert Ray wings one against the O's.

Browse more photos »

Last time the list was ten names long. This week only five pitchers debuted. Five. Pitchers. Jon Van Every goes with Cody Ross in the novelty pile (located elsewhere, somewhere around the Nick Swisher region).

Mark Melancon (NYY) - Welcome addition to the Bronx 'pen.
Ken Takahashi (NYM) - Lefty veteran pitched 14 years for the Hiroshima Carp as a swing man.
Fernando Rodriguez (LAA) - The pitching impoverished Angels got two outs and 34 pitches in this debut, against the Yankees.
Robert Ray (TOR) - The Blue Jays have some young arms behind Doc, don't they? A little wild, but worked into the sixth inning in his first start.
Arturo Lopez (SDP) - The Padres 422nd pitcher of 2009, the lefty got this call after 7pm so the Friars could use their anytime minutes.. He was an NRI and a late cut this Spring, now has a roster spot.

Lopez and Rodriguez (who is already back in Salt Lake) both stuck around through the Spring season and made exhibition appearances in their big league parks, so I've included the resulting PITCHf/x data for their profiles. Melancon has already made two appearances for the Yankees, so the data is piling up. Let's have at it.

Mark Melancon
Fastball        93mph
Sinker          93
Curveball       83

Ken Takahashi
Fastball        89
Change-up       82
Slider          77
Curveball       73

Robert Ray
Sinker          91
Splitter *      90
Fastball        92
Slider          81
Change-up       81
Cutter          89

Fernando Rodriguez
Fastball        92
Sinker           91
Curveball       76
Cutter          89
Change-up       87

Arturo Lopez
Fastball        92
Slider          83
Change-up       83
Sinker          94

*that ain't a splitter, it's a sinker thrown from a another arm angle. Maybe.

Flight paths, I'm splitting Ray into two so you can see it more easilty. Notice the "splitter" has more sink but less tail than the sinker.

I sure hope you can see the tail difference, look closely for the sink (click images to view a larger version).

Seahawks colors?

Moving on to Takahashi:

Lopez:

Rodriguez:

And Melancon to wrap it up:

The Chicago Cubs Are On The Air! - Cubs vs. Angels at Mesa, Saturday 3/14, 3:05 CT

Al — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 16:00:09 -0000

Those of you who are of "a certain age" will remember the title of this post as the phrase that Vince Lloyd used to use to introduce every Cubs broadcast on WGN radio. It seems like forever that we've heard our home announcers on the air, though it's only been one week.

Today, both WGN radio and WGN-TV will carry the Angels/Cubs game from Mesa. If you have online access you can click through to either audio or video at the MLB.com Mediacenter. The good news is that for the rest of the spring, only two Cubs games will have no radio or TV coverage, home or road: 3/19 vs. Seattle at Peoria, and 3/24 vs. the Rockies at Mesa. See this post for a complete list of spring broadcast outlets.

These teams may be sick of each other after facing each other two days in a row, though the Angels didn't see many of the Cubs' frontline starters yesterday in Tempe; most of them played in the Mesa game vs. the Mariners. Aaron Heilman gets the start for the Cubs, facing LA's Joe Saunders. After Heilman, expect to see Angel Guzman, Kevin Gregg, Neal Cotts, Randy Wells, Mike Stanton and the just-returned Carlos Marmol. For the Angels, relievers are likely to include Matt Palmer, Brian Fuentes, Barret Browning, Fernando Rodriguez and Matt Wilhite.

Last week, our SBN colleagues at AZ Snakepit, the Diamondbacks site, posted this detailed analysis of what appeared to be a decline in Cactus League attendance. I think that it's a bit too early to say definitively that the Cactus League is in "crisis", as the headline put it, or that attendance over the entire spring season is going to be down. First, with the season extended by a week this year, and up to seven more games per team, people in the Phoenix area may have "spread out" their attendance, since there were simply more choices of games. Second, with the February 25 start date -- one of the earliest, if not the earliest I can remember -- a lot of the spring breakers and others who normally come later in the spring (myself included) have not yet arrived in the Valley of the Sun. There's a NCAA regional in the Phoenix area in two weeks, and that may bring some extra people to some of the spring training parks when they're not watching basketball.

Today's game in Mesa is sold out. You'd expect that for a Saturday date vs. the Angels. Some tickets are available for all the remaining games (except Friday 3/27 vs. the White Sox), but I'd expect some of those to eventually sell out. With the Phoenix-area forecast nearly perfect today (sunny, high of 78), today will be a good test of whether attendance is truly "down" or not, not necessarily for the sold-out Cubs, but for other teams.

MLB.com Gameday for Cubs vs. Angels (3 pm CDT, WGN radio, WGN-TV)

In addition to the various spring games today, the WBC resumes, with second-round games in Miami; the featured matchup is the USA vs. Puerto Rico. I'd expect that to draw a pretty large crowd, despite the ridiculously expensive ticket prices.

MLB.com Gameday for Netherlands vs. Venezuela (noon CDT, MLB Network)

MLB.com Gameday for USA vs. Puerto Rico (7 pm CDT, MLB Network)

Discuss amongst yourselves.