SB Nation - Justin Masterson

First volley of projections for 2010 Indians

Jay — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:00:25 -0000

Could Sowers finally be the number-four starter of our dreams?

ACTA Sports has begun taking orders for The Bill James Handbook 2010, which customarily will include James' projections for every major league player. (Full disclosure: ACTA occasionally sends me a review copy of one of their books, and I am totally in the bag for them.)

James' proprietary performance projections, while perhaps less obsessed-over than PECOTA or even CHONE, are among the most credible ones publicly available. More to the point, ACTA has released the projections on a few key Indians right now, so let's put our greedy little eyes on them and get an early start on the expectation-setting.

First, the pitchers:

Key Indians Pitchers (by ERA)

Player IP W L K SV
ERA

Kerry Wood 56 4 3 62 27
3.54

Justin Masterson 171 10 9 151 0
4.00

Jeremy Sowers 150 7 9 81 0
4.44

WOOD: I don't know how James is projecting the Save stat, and I certainly don't care. James' system sees Wood as a pitcher who can still rack up the strikeouts and who generally, therefore, will prevent runs from scoring. This doesn't look like a $10 million closer, but it looks more than serviceable.

MASTERSON: Probably the best news in the press release is James' divination of Masterson as a solid number-two starter in 2010. I'm not even sure what to say about it, but I like it.

SOWERS: Less surprising but still heartening is the prediction that Sowers can settle in as a solid #3-#4 guy (don't argue), and damn it, that's all we've really asked of the guy, and it didn't seem like that unreasonable of a demand.

Of course, these projections are probably purely statistical, utilizing little if any subjective information, but they do suggest that there isn't too much urgency to the idea of adding a fungible fourth-starter type on the cheap this offseason.

Now the hitters:

Key Indians Hitters (by OPS)

Player At-bats R HR
RBI SB Avg. OPS

Grady Sizemore 574 101 25 78 21 .272 .853

Shin-Soo Choo 583 95 19 86 20 .293 .850

Matt LaPorta 451 70 20 68 3 .266 .802

Kelly Shoppach 381 57 19 61 0 .249 .798

Asdrubal Cabrera 582 96 9 74 19 .294 .779

SIZEMORE: James has Grady more or less returning to form; while his 30-30 has become a 25-21, note that this is based on 574 AB. Prior to 2009, Sizemore averaged 639 AB per season; obviously, health plays a role here.

CHOO: The numbers say that Shin-Soo Choo really is as good as we think he is.

LAPORTA: That 802 OPS no doubt is less than Indians fans want to see, not to mention the 20 HR over 451 AB. My guess is that James' system is making note of LaPorta's 2009 playing time trends but doesn't know that, barring an extreme circumstance, LaPorta actually will get 600+ AB on the big leagues in 2010. It probably also isn't entirely impressed with his 917 OPS in Columbus this year, given he was already 24. Unlike the typical LGTer, James' system is unlikely to blame any faults in his rookie production on Eric Wedge. Whether its ignorance of these factors is a strength or a shortcoming is up for debate.

SHOPPACH: Surprise! James' system thinks Shoppach is a good hitter who just had a bad year, with some real power counterbalancing his mediocre contact hitting. (In 2009, a 798 OPS was a 105 OPS+.) These projections have Kelly hitting about 90 percent as well as he did in his breakout 2008 campaign. One assumes that James' system didn't actually have to watch Shoppach striking out in every-other at bat all season, and again, one can debate whether that's a plus or a minus for the system.

CABRERA: The most disappointing projection here has Cabrera hitting almost as well as in 2009 rather than taking a step forward. In this case as well, the system is not really differentiating between Cabrera's performance through injuries and his production while healthy, and arguably, we can't, either. Asdrubal had an 877 OPS in April, and he seemed to be starting the big breakout year many had predicted for him. He went 785 the rest of the season to finish at 799 — a fine full season given his all-around game, but not quite what we'd like to see from him.

Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro

Jay — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:53:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Is just developing a good process enough?

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This is the final installment in a 12-part series.

"A Hit Is A Hit" — The Sopranos, season one.

Christopher has been bankrolling a band called "Visiting Day", who are managed by his girlfriend Adriana. He plays the band's demo to his associate Hesh, an old-timer in the music business.

CHRISTOPHER: So?

HESH: I think it's ... not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Wanna be a little more specific?

HESH: There's good. And there's not good. This is not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Okay, maybe it's not your era — no offense, but ...

HESH: Kid, music is music, talent is talent. I don't care who you are. I seen it all. I seen heavy metal invented by Hendrix at the Bottom Line, he just got out of the army. I told him, "Kid, I don't know what you call it — talent, charisma, magic — whatever it is, you got it." These guys ... [gestures to the cassette] ... I'm sorry, they don't.

CHRISTOPHER: That Vito is a great guitar player, Hesh.

HESH: Good, fine, he's a great guitar player. However, there's one constant in the music business: A hit is a hit. And this, my friend, is not a hit.

CHRISTOPHER: But why?

HESH: Christ. Reasons we can never comprehend or codify, you pitiful schlepper.

Of all the installments in this series, this is the one where it's most tempting to beg off and admit, this might just above my pay grade. I'll be honest, I can't say with much confidence whether Mark Shapiro should be fired. What I can say is that there are definitely good reasons to fire him.

Before we get to that, better face up to some hard facts. If you're going to fire Shapiro, you have to believe that a better option is available. Chris Antonetti is the heir apparent, but you fire Shapiro and keep Antonetti only if you think that in keeping Antonetti, you preserve the best parts of Shapiro while rooting out his shortcomings. Heck, maybe that's actually the case, but I personally couldn't say. It doesn't seem likely. And if Antonetti was the instant front-runner for most any GM opening, what would that make Shapiro if he were available?

Shapiro's calling card is turning walk-year veterans into prospects who become multi-year contributors to the team — a truly staggering haul, including Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Coco Crisp, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Bard and Kelly Shoppach. Add to that list, potentially, over the next several years, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Luis Valbuena, Michael Brantley, Lou Marson, plus a half-dozen significant pitching prospects, plus Mark DeRosa, Arthur Rhodes, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez. Even his least successful trade acquisitions — Alex Escobar, Jason Michaels, Brandon Phillips, Billy Traber, Andy Marte, Josh Barfield — have not been entirely bereft of big-league talent.

We've chanted that litany before, but it bears recalling because horse trading is one of the most important jobs of a GM, and it's notably one of the only jobs where success or failure is directly traced to his decision. Shapiro also has had an impressive run with third-tier free agent starting pitchers — Pavano made 33 starts and netted a decent prospect, Byrd completed three serviceable seasons, Millwood won the freakin' ERA title, and even Brian Anderson did okay for a couple of years. And while fans rightly bemoan the dead weight of Hafner's contract, Shapiro has not really made the big, crippling mistakes that befall most GMs — on the balance sheet, Hafner-Westbrook-Dellucci pale before Wells-Rios-Ryan.

If you're going to get rid of Shapiro and his like-minded colleagues, then you have to be willing to live without those exemplary skills — without his leadership, class, and intelligence, his deftness with trades and contracts, the respect he commands within the industry, and especially — especially — his willingness to take the public body blows when tough decisions need to be made. You can't assume that the next guy will excel in all of those areas. I am certain we'd miss those qualities.

Having said that, I can tell you why Shapiro should be fired in one word: Talent.

Baseball is never simple. As a rule, the world's most elite natural athletes cannot succeed as major leaguers. Hitting and pitching are simply too hard. Hitting at this level requires a knack that may be the hardest thing to quantify or characterize in all of sports, and if you don't have it, then all the talk or mechanics and approaches in the world can't save you, even if you have several NBA championships and MVP awards on your résumé. Pitching at this level requires a freakish combination of precise muscle control, huge arm-generated torque, resistance to elbow and shoulder injury under extreme stress, and intelligence.

Running a baseball club may be just as hard and just as unquantifiable; after all, more than a few titans of industry have tried and failed. A brilliant executive can't necessarily run a ballclub any better than a world-class athlete can hit a curveball. The brilliant executive can be an inspiring leader, managing and empowering his charges. He can define what kind of people he wants working in the organization, hire them, set expectations, evaluate them, act on them. He can fire people. He can order case studies and surveys of best practices. He can analyze statistics and devise processes, enact them, evaluate them, refine them, start over from scratch if need be. He can maintain outstanding communication with his staff, with his bosses, with the public. He can do all these things reliably, even predictably, because he simply has the tools and the skills.

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Sometimes — often, maybe — it comes down to reasons we can never comprehend or codify, pitiful schleppers that we are.

Evaluating talent is a special skill, and here I can speak with some experience. Most of my professional life is centered around my ability to identify genuine talent — musical talent, IT talent, and even writing talent — people who reliably will perform at a high or exceptionally high level, just about 100 percent of the time. I have, on occasion, identified individuals with weak paper qualifications who later went on to excel in their field. In some cases, they thrived in part because I gave them an opportunity and aided their development. In other cases, their success was inevitable, and I just saw it earlier than some others.

I am not suggesting, by any stretch of the imagination, that I have the ability to judge baseball talent. Maybe, if I'd spent 20 years working as a baseball professional, learning from thousands of discussions with scouts and making and testing my own observations — maybe then, but perhaps not even then. For whatever it's worth, though, I can tell you that my ability to assess a person's talents is entirely intuitive. I have no ability to explain it, or to teach anyone else how to do it. I can be highly analytical in my assessments of people, breaking down facts and metrics, making rules and devising grading systems to create rankings — and I can teach these things by rote and by example. However, none of that has anything to do with being able to differentiate reliably between a high ceiling and a low ceiling.

I can't tell you for sure that it's the same for baseball, but I worry that it is. Most of the people reading this could be trained in the rudiments of being a low-level scout — doing your homework and measuring some kid's raw tools on the field. Skills are another thing entirely — evaluating footwork and positioning on defense, observing quality of command across a variety of pitches, intuiting the difference between a bad day and a chronic problem. Beyond these, another level, the crucial, game-changing question: Will this ballplayer develop skills beyond what he's showing today? How does he project to a different level at a different age, or even just to a different ballpark in a different league?

I have no doubt that great baseball scouts learned a lot from the great scouts who came before them, and I have no doubt that a gifted executive can learn immensely from a great scout, purely by his ability to listen and communicate and absorb. At the same time, I am quite sure that the greatest talent evaluators in the game are possessed of something that is innate and ineffable. And I am genuinely concerned that the Indians don't employ any of those people — and that, in fact, Shapiro may have favored others in the organization to the point where the best evaluators left.

Take a look at the AP report of Neal Huntington being hired away by the Pirates:

Huntington formerly was the assistant general manager to the Indians' Mark Shapiro, but dropped behind vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and assistant general manager John Mirabelli on the front office depth chart two years ago.

Huntington accepted a different role in 2005, Shapiro said, because Antonetti's skills were in the management and administrative side, while Huntington's were in evaluation and scouting.

"My skill set and passion were more that of an evaluator, but they never technically took me out of the front office," Huntington said. "I was exposed to some incredible things -- rebuilding an organization and being involved in every decision, every tough decision, that was made."

And from the MLB.com report:

As an adviser to Shapiro and vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, Huntington was involved in nearly all personnel and staffing decisions, as well as trade acquisition discussions. He also spent the majority of his time evaluating talent on both the Minor and Major League level.

When asked about Huntington, Shapiro responded: "[Huntington is] one of our chief evaluators and one of our strongest voices on every level," Shapiro said.

Here's a guy who was the highest-ranking evaluator in the organization and possibly the best, a guy with a master's degree in sports management from UMass, and essentially, he was passed over — well treated, perhaps, but pointedly not in line for a future role as GM. So too, perhaps, was John Farrell, who upon leaving Cleveland — quite amicably, as Huntington did — was quoted to say that he was looking to have a larger voice in an organization. Farrell had been a major league pitcher and a college pitching coach, and with the Indians he served stints as Farm Director and Director of Player Development. Despite his experience and impeccable reputation, Farrell too was not viewed as the future leader of the organization.

Years earlier, there was Tony LaCava, whom the Indians hired in 2002 as national cross-checker, essentially rescuing him from the sinking-ship Montreal Expos. As the Expos very recent Farm Director, LaCava naturally was instrumental in selecting the prospects to be received in the Colon deal, which is not only Shapiro's signature trade, but arguably the most successful trade of a veteran for prospects by any GM, ever. LaCava, too, was not retained in the Indians organization, moving on to the Blue Jays as Assistant GM in 2003, just one year later, while John Mirabelli continued his string of generally disastrous drafts.

Like Huntington, LaCava is going to be a GM sooner or later, yet he wasn't good enough to be Assistant GM in Cleveland. None of these guys were given large enough roles in the organization to keep them around, and no doubt the Indians were possessed of too much executive talent to keep in-house — a nice problem to have. Still, given how things have gone since, it's telling that the prince-in-waiting anointment, and present-day "co-GM" status, went not to an ace evaluator, but instead to Antonetti, a man whose background and skill set are more or less identical to Shapiro's.

For all the talk about being open to all ideas and all viewpoints, the major player-evaluation talent in the Indians organization was basically told that being a solid administrator was more important, and that their path to bigger jobs would have to be in some other, presumably less enlightened organization — and never mind that it doesn't matter how well administered your organization is if you don't know who the best talent is. (Is it any wonder, then, that when Shapiro hires a former catcher for a manager, he then populates his coaching staff almost entirely with other former catchers? All leaders lead by example, first and foremost.)

This is not to say that an executive without a scouting background cannot be an outstanding GM, but it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the "Ivy League whiz kid" GM model tend to have a "wise old baseball man" figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan. But when non-scout-gifted-executives Shapiro and Antonetti huddle to make the big decisions, who are the wise old evaluators in the room — Charles Nagy and Jason Bere?

Later that night, at home, Adriana and Christopher discuss Visiting Day's potential. Hip-hop mogul "Massive Genius" has told Adriana that the band's demos are promising.

CHRISTOPHER: You know how I use the technique of positive visualization?

ADRIANA: I know you talk about it. You're fairly negative a lot of the time.

CHRISTOPHER: I think you should mentally prepare for the possibility that Visiting Day sucks.

ADRIANA: What?

CHRISTOPHER: I think that ... the only reason you've gotten this far with Massive is ... he wants to be in your pants.

ADRIANA: Boy, oh, boy.

CHRISTOPHER: Look, I had some experts listen to the demo ... they crapped all over it. Sorry.

ADRIANA: Who, Hesh? That old synagogue cantor?

CHRISTOPHER: Silvio. Hey, he owned rock clubs in Asbury. You heard what Squid said. A professional engineer.

ADRIANA: What about my opinion? That it's good. That it's special. This is just a way for you to keep me down.

CHRISTOPHER: That ain't fair.

ADRIANA: What's wrong with it, huh? What's wrong with Visiting Day?

CHRISTOPHER: I don't know ... but it's a problem that you don't know.

This series of articles perhaps has only demonstrated the obvious, that a club this bad — which decides in June that it must not only tank the current season but the next season at the same time — has suffered multiple failures in more than one part of the organization. In any one area, we can talk about how much control that one group of people — coaches, scouts, trainers — really had, compared to the influence of the other groups and the whims of the fates. But a systemic failure points ultimately to Shapiro, who hired and is accountable for all of those groups, and the harsh truth is that every club must contend with the whims of the fates — or fail to contend with them, as the Indians have.

Amateur scouting has been a disaster since Shapiro took over; maybe time will reveal that it was fixed two or three years ago, but maybe not. Big-league scouting has been a mixed bag, with veteran acquisitions missing a lot more often than they hit — in Barfield's case, about four times more often. The training staff has won high praise from some in the industry, but they haven't stopped the Indians from being undercut severely by injuries to a half-dozen key players in just two years — in some cases, multiple injuries and disappointing rehab processes have afflicted a single player like Jake Westbrook over and over again. The farm system has been another mixed bag, producing too many players who dominate at Triple-A but can barely perform at replacement level in the majors. If all clubs were like the Indians in this regard, those MLE formulas might look a lot different.

We had a manager whose playing-time decisions often defied any imaginable logic or reason, who thought it was important to have Ramon Vazquez on his bench rather than future 30-30 man Brandon Phillips, and who thought it was a good idea to put Ryan Garko in the outfield, with a rookie flyball pitcher on the mound — scratch that, ever — and we had a GM who let him do these things. It's true that Shapiro fired Wedge, and he may be sincere in saying that bringing in a new manager is an exciting opportunity. Even so, Shapiro made it abundantly clear that he didn't think there was any real, qualitative reason why Wedge shouldn't continue to be the manager — his exact words were, "it's a cop-out."

We had extraordinarily bad — and sometimes historically bad — bullpens in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009. Those volcanic fiascos were, at least, largely Shapiro's direct creations, and at most, entirely the fault of Shapiro and people who were hired by Shapiro, and who generally have not been fired by Shapiro. They have turned too many contenders into also-rans, too many decent squads into train-wrecks, and too many season ticket holders into non-customers.

The sum of these observations is this one, frightening, inescapable conclusion: Shapiro has not given us any concrete reason to believe that he knows how to put people into critical positions who are capable of evaluating, developing and coaching real talent — the kind that can thrive at the major league level. Without people in key roles who are possessed of that kind of judgment and talent, it doesn't make any difference how good your organizational processes are or how much class-acting you do. We cannot contend on a diet of trade-acquired minor leaguers and recycled starting pitchers alone. If these things weren't clear five years ago, or even one year ago, they ought to be crystal clear now.

I am just a scribe, neither scout nor coach, not a baseball executive and certainly not a former major leaguer. So I don't really know what's wrong with the Cleveland Indians. But it's a problem if Mark Shapiro doesn't know either. And as much respect for him as I have, I'm not at all convinced that he does.

Games 157 and 158: Indians, White Sox Split Doubleheader

Ryan — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 02:15:34 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Gone, but not yet.

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Game 157: Indians 5, White Sox 1

Game 158: White Sox 1, Indians 0

A couple hours before the first game began, GM Mark Shapiro announced that manager Eric Wedge and all members of the major-league coaching staff would not be back for the 2010 season. The move was expected, and hopefully it represents the first step towards a championship team. Wedge handled the firing with class, though you would assume it wasn't a shock to him.

The pitching performances in the doubleheader were promising as well. Fausto Carmona pitched well for the second start in a row, and Masterson was brilliant in the nightcap. These were the last starts of the season for the two pitchers, and they couldn't have ended their seasons on a better note. Carmona was efficient, showing flashes of how he pitched in 2007. He went seven innings, walking just two and striking out 5. In some ways these last two starts make his 2009 season even more maddening, for you saw what he was capable of.

In the first game, the Indians were paced by Matt LaPorta (1-1, 2B, 2 BB) and Travis Hafner (2-3, HR), who hopefully will form a formidable right-left power combination in next year's lineup. LaPorta's streaking towards a league-average OPS as the season is winding down, and even though he's made less than 200 plate appearances in the majors, he's your cleanup hitter next season.

Even though the Indians ended their home schedule with a loss in game two, Justin Masterson's gem of a start was a great takeaway. He struck out 12, walked 2, and pitched a complete game. He allowed only one run, but unfortunately neither Mark Buerhle nor three Chicago relievers allowed a single run. Masterson had struggled down the stretch, which made this start even more of a surprise. In his last start against Detroit, he couldn't make it through five innings, and he hadn't gone seven innings in any start this season. Cleveland's next pitching coach now has an archetype pitching performance to try to emulate next year.

Next Up: The last series of the season. Carrasco vs. Lester, 7:10 PM

Game Graphs and WPA leaders after the jump...

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Fausto Carmona	.242	Jhonny Peralta	-.056
Matt LaPorta	.175	Michael Brantley	-.053
Travis Hafner	.108	Luis Valbuena	-.013

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Justin Masterson	.341	Jamey Carroll	-.151
Luis Valbuena	.037	Matt LaPorta	-.114
		Shin-Soo Choo	-.114

Rake By the Lake: Tigers 11, Indians 3

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:25:10 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Carlos Guillen brought his home run face to the ballpark on Wednesday night, hitting two in a Tigers romp over the Indians.

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Lloyd McClendon will probably put this game on his coaching resume, don't you think?

And maybe some of us were a bit hard on Carlos Guillen. (Yes, I am looking at me.)

After enduring quite a few pitching duels recently (except when getting beat up by the Royals - argh), the Detroit Tigers' lineup flexed their muscles Wednesday night in Cleveland and put a long-awaited beating on an opponent.

Justin Masterson was not the latest unfamiliar pitcher to throw a gem against Detroit. He ended up the roadkill beneath the tire of a Tiger-striped truck, getting squashed for eight runs (six earned) and seven hits in four innings of work.

Guillen and Miguel Cabrera both hit home runs off Masterson, and BigMig's bazooka shot probably would've landed in Lake Erie if Progressive Field's left field bleachers hadn't gotten in the way. (I don't know if that's actually geographically correct. Indulge my hyperbolic description, won't you?) The homer was actually measured at 440 feet.

But Guillen found hitting a homer so nice, he decided to do it twice. And the second time around, he did it batting right-handed, against the lefty Mike Gosling. So it looks like he's getting pretty comfortable hitting from that side (unlike his first time last week, when he smacked a weak pop-up off Bruce Chen).

Overall, Guillen went 3-for-4 on the night, with four RBIs. It'll be interesting to see if that means he stays in the lineup against lefties now. Who would get squeezed out in such a scenario: Curtis Granderson in centerfield (sitting for Ryan Raburn), or Marcus Thames at DH?

Benefiting from the run parade was Rick Porcello, who continued his success against the Indians, though this may not have been his smoothest effort. Maybe Kid Rick's focus let up a bit with a 4-0 lead when he took the mound. Perhaps this umpiring crew's continally fraudulent strike zone got into his head a bit. Three walks in five innings was an unusual number for him (showing how good he's been recently, by the way), though Porcello only gave up one run.

With a series win in hand, the Tigers go for the series win tonight. The Twins are off, so this is a chance to add a half-game to their AL Central lead. Since Minnesota hasn't been losing (thank you, White Sox), Detroit should really try to capitalize on the opportunity.

Roar:

Guillen and Cabrera (2-for-4, three RBIs) had their feats of strength, but Clete Thomas also put together a nice night. Thomas batted 2-for-5 with two runs scored, and made a fantastic catch on Lou Marson's drive to the right field wall in the second inning.

Placido Polanco and Ramon Santiago also totaled two hits. (Everyone in the starting lineup got a hit, actually.)

Whimper:

Jeremy Bonderman walked two of the three batters he faced in the ninth, so you really can't call that a good night. (Jim Leyland seemed rather ticked about it after the game, not wanting to waste more relievers than necessary in a blowout.)

In Bondo's defense, he didn't miss by much on almost all of his pitches. That's not to say he was sharp, but he was around the strike zone.

Comment of the Night:

Cue fixing that run differential problem?

by demondeaconsbaseball

Game 152: Tigers 11, Indians 3

Ryan — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 02:49:09 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Justin Masterson only lasted four innings.

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If my math is correct, the Indians just have to win two more games to avoid ending the season with 100 losses. Even as bad as they've been playing, they should avoid that, with six upcoming games against teams tanking about as badly as the Indians. But it's almost certain that they'll blow by the 94-loss 2003 team, which means that you have to go back to 1991 to come across an Indians club with a worse record.

Unfortunately, I'd take the 1991 rotation over this one. That team had a 24-year-old Charles Nagy and a 26-year-old Greg Swindell heading it, while this is one, as currently constituted, has Aaron Laffey and a bunch of projects. Justin Masterson, a pitcher who was supposed to contribute right away, hasn't adjusted to full-time starting. Tonight, against a lineup that can to pitched to, he got rocked for six runs in 4+ innings. Yes, two of those runs were unearned because of an Andy Marte throwing error, but I'm just not seeing any improvement in his location or adjustments to past failures. I think he's actually gotten worse since he got here.

The offense got shut down yet again. What else is new. Jhonny Peralta is again in the midst of a exasperating slump, hitting .182/.250/.234 in the month of September.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jamey Carroll	.059	Justin Masterson	-.408
Andy Marte	.021	Luis Valbuena	-.064
Shin-Soo Choo	.017	Lou Marson	-.039

Tigers Win! Game 151 Afterglow

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 02:10:14 -0000

Things that go "Boom!" in the night? Tonight, it was the Detroit Tigers' bats. The road team was swingin' in Cleveland. Everyone in the starting lineup got a hit. Carlos Guillen homered from both sides of the plate.

And Justin Masterson probably has tire tracks (or should that be Tiger tracks?) on the front of his jersey. Not a good night for the young man. He'll probably learn from this or something.

Tigers beat the Indians 11-3! Full recap later on. But for now: glow, baby, glow.

Plus, it looks like the White Sox might actually give the Twins a game at The Cell tonight. So a few of you might be keeping track of that.

Game 147: Athletics 5, Indians 2

Ryan — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 05:45:16 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Luis Valbuena (sort of) tags out Daric Barton in the eighth.

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The big blow of the game was Kurt Suzuki's three-run blast in the third inning. Justin Masterson had allowed his second run of the game earlier in the inning, and was pitching to Suzuki with two runners on, but was ahead of the Oakland catcher 0-2. But in a situation where pitchers try not to throw a strike, Masterson made a mistake, and it got hit out of the park. Justin lasted another inning, then left after throwing 93 pitches in four innings. He allowed 11 of the 22 batters he faced to reach base. And he's going to be one of the top three pitchers in next year's Opening Day rotation.

Lou Marson had three of Cleveland's six hits, one of which was a double. It sure looks like Marson will be on next year's roster, with his exact role to be dictated by what the Indians do with Kelly Shoppach. I still think it makes sense for the Indians to have the two compete for playing time, if not to get more production out of the catching position, then at least to avoid selling low on Shoppach.

Next Up: More late-night baseball. Huff vs. Anderson, 10:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Lou Marson	.057	Justin Masterson	-.248
Shin-Soo Choo	.043	Michael Brantley	-.094
Jensen Lewis	.041	Luis Valbuena	-.083

Red Sox offer for Roy Halladay revealed

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 16:34:19 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

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UPDATE - Retracted Edition - Red Sox GM Theo Epstein said there was no truth to the report that the Red Sox offered six pitchers for the Blue Jays ace. The proposal did seem a little out of character for the Red Sox front office, who take a lot of pride in their young prospects.

Here is the original story if interested:

Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun spoke with a couple scouts who talked about the offer the Red Sox made for Roy Halladay at the trade deadline.

The offer: Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront, and Nick Hagadone to the Blue Jays for Halladay.

The deal includes three of the Red Sox top ten prospects, according to Baseball America. Buchholz was rated the top Red Sox prospect in 2008, and Hagadone is considered to have the best slider in the organization. Why wouldn't the Jays take that offer? Elliot says their was two reasons:

Initially, the Jays spent days deciding whether Masterson projected better as a starter or a closer and, when they reached a decision, they didn't think he'd succeed in that role. Secondly, "the Jays were worried about Halladay beating them next year."

The Red Sox and Blue Jays match up against each other 18 times per season. While you'll likely face Halladay a couple times, you would think that landing those prospects would outweigh facing Halladay two or three times in 2010.

Several of those pitchers project very well long term, and if the Blue Jays hit on two or three of the six arms, they would be in great shape for the future.

I'd be surprised to see another team top that offer.

Poll

If you were GM of the Blue Jays, would you have accepted that offer?

Yes, in a heartbeat.

263 votes

No, they can do better.

26 votes

289 votes | Poll has closed

Game 141: Royals 2, Indians 1

afh4 — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 02:49:25 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

"Flo" from Progressive threw out the first pitch.

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Justin Masterson pitched in and out of trouble all night, inducing two double plays when his back was against the wall Despite his four walks, Masterson held the Royals to just one run over 6. Zack Greinke was his usual magical self through seven innings but Trey Hillman pulled him at just 102 pitches and one earned run; Greinke's last start was a 120+ pitch performance against the Angels. Tony Sipp and Chris Perez were brilliant through 3 innings of relief.

The Royals bullpen is truly atrocious and Hillman handed the ball to Kyle Farnsworth and his 5.00+ ERA for the final two innings. He worked a clean slate in the eigth but then characteristically started to come unglued in the ninth. After putting two on, he gave up a single to Jhonny Peralta; Skinner flashed back to games that mattered and sent Cabrera home despite it being a short single into LF, where David DeJesus and his strong arm waited. Cabrerea was cut down at the plate meaning Travis Hafner would have to get a hit for the Indians to win the game in regulation. Hafner waved at strike three and the game went to extras.

Going with Perez in the top of the ninth was, if I'm not mistaken, against the book, in that the closer is expected in the top of the ninth in the tie game of a home game. When Wedge stuck with Perez for the tenth, it was an unusual, though certainly not indefensible decision. I'm not much for this whole line of speculation but if you're looking for the "denying Wood games to finish" evidence, this is about as close as we've gotten. Chris made it a tactical moot point by plowing through the Royals for a second straight inning to make a final line of 2.0 IP, 1 BB and 3K. Since joining the Indians, Perez (Mercedes?) has 32 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. These are essentially the same strikeout numbers as in St. Louis; the difference is that Perez has halved his walks.

The Royals turned to Jamey Wright to try to hold the Indians at bay in the tenth. If it seems like I'm foreshadowing that Wright would lose the game, that's because I was writing this along with the game, waiting to go for dinner, and I was hoping that was the case. It wasn't, and Valbuena-LaPorta-Marte went 1-2-3 against the suddenly indomitable Jamey Wright. In the top of the eleventh, Wedge again stayed away from Wood and went with Jose Veras, who somehow worked a scoreless inning.

Frankly, I lost interest in this an hour ago. I mean, seriously who's watching this? Sigh. Come on. Somebody hit a home run. Who's coming up? Marson, Brantley, and Cabrera. Who's my best shot there? I told these people I'd meet them for dinner an hour ago. Alright, Brantley took a walk. Come on. Just hit a double or something, Astro. It's still Jamey Wright on the mound. How is this still going on?

In the eleventh, Asdrubal grounded out to move Brantley to second; after an intentional walk to Choo, Peralta stepped in and singled to left! JP singled! And...Brantley was out at home on the throw from DeJesus. That's twice, Skinner.

Top 12. Still Veras (seriously, what?). Homerun Miguel Olivo. Well, alright.

So, that's it. Miguel Olivo took Jose Veras yard in the top of the 12th and the Indians lost. What has happened to us?

Game 135: Twins 4, Indians 1

Ryan — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 01:02:18 -0000

by Mark Duncan - AP

Justin Masterson was wild, but effective.

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As we wind down the 2009 season, it seems to me that the Indians are in pretty good shape as far as position players are concerned. And the rebuilt rebuilt bullpen has been tremendous. But I'm still scared about the rotation going forward.There's some talent among the starting group, but also a lot of risk.

Today's outing by Justin Masterson looks pretty good if you look at it superficially; he allowed just one earned one on 5 hits. But the five walks to me are a red flag. He's given up 20 walks in his past five starts, so this game's wildness isn't a fluke. Wildness eventually will catch up to a pitcher, no matter how good his stuff, and shorten his outing. Short outings by a starter place more pressure on a bullpen, which will have negative effects on the relief staff as the season goes along.

Scott Baker may have a pedestrian 4.44 ERA, but he might as well be Roy Halladay when he faces the Indians. In his three starts prior to today, the Indians are hitting just .138/.169/.225 (MLB as a whole is hitting .246/.284/.417). His line today (6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB) mirrored Masterson's but usually a high walk count isn't a problem for him (31 walks in 160 innings pitched).

The only offense the Indians managed came on one swing of the bat. Andy Marte went deep off Baker in the third, his fifth of the season.

Next Up: Blackburn vs. Huff, 1:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Justin Masterson	.080	Luis Valbuena	-.146
Wyatt Toregas	.071	Jamey Carroll	-.145
Andy Marte	.022	Matt LaPorta	-.112

Key Indians Pitchers (by ERA)
Player	IP	W	L	K	SV	ERA
Kerry Wood	56	4	3	62	27	3.54
Justin Masterson	171	10	9	151	0	4.00
Jeremy Sowers	150	7	9	81	0	4.44

Key Indians Hitters (by OPS)
Player	At-bats	R	HR	RBI	SB	Avg.	OPS
Grady Sizemore	574	101	25	78	21	.272	.853
Shin-Soo Choo	583	95	19	86	20	.293	.850
Matt LaPorta	451	70	20	68	3	.266	.802
Kelly Shoppach	381	57	19	61	0	.249	.798
Asdrubal Cabrera	582	96	9	74	19	.294	.779