SB Nation - Deolis Guerra

Buster Olney: Jays Need To Trade Halladay Now!

Matt Buggenhagen — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 18:09:11 -0000

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Here are some highlights:

For the Full transcript you can read here (remember you must be an ESPN insider)

Olney says several baseball people have arrived in Toronto today to watch Halladay pitch.
In order to get the best possible deal Olney feels the Jays have to trade Halladay within the next 12 days or they may wind up with much less from teams like the Dodgers, Angels and Phillies.
Olney says the Jays should learn from the Twins who traded Johan Santana far too late, and received little guaranteed major league players in return. The Twins obtained Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra, none of whom are contributing on the big league level.
As long as Brian Cashman is GM of the Yankees there is almost no way the Yankees make a deal for Halladay.
The Mets would love to have Halladay, but they don't have the prospects.
The Dodgers also would love to have Halladay but they aren't going to part with pitcher Clayton Kershaw.
The Jays won't be able to sign Halladay, and Olney believes he has given the team all indication (respectfully) he doesn't want to return to Toronto.

Santana's Fortune: Three Down, One to Go

Jesse — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:15:16 -0000

With the arrival of Kevin Mulvey, the Twins are about to get a glimpse of the third of the four players the team received in return for the best southpaw in baseball, Johan Santana.

Anytime you make a trade it's easy to rush to judgment on which team won. Ultimately only history can tell the tale, but it's really no secret what most people would answer if asked who won the Johan swap: the Mets. Is it any wonder?

Carlos Gomez	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Minnesota Twins	230	764	107	193	35	10	9	77	39	181	40	15	.253	.295	.360

Philip Humber	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Minnesota Twins Rochester Red Wings	0-0 14-14	9 46	0 37	0 3	0 0	0 0	0 0	16.0 210	22 231	12 127	12 117	5 31	8 79	10 165	6.75 5.01	1.88 1.51

Kevin Mulvey	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Rochester Red Wings	10-15	44	44	3	1	0	0	241	261	132	107	22	86	202	4.00	1.38

Deolis Guerra	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Fort Myers Miracle New Britain Rock Cats	17-17 1-0	42 2	40 1	1 0	1 0	0 0	0 0	216.1 9.2	233 13	137 7	124 6	18 0	96 3	128 8	5.16 5.59	1.52 1.66

Not the most glowing stat lines by any stretch of the imagination. I'm looking foward to seeing what Mulvey can do for this bullpen's consistency, and with Gomez (23) and Guerra (20) being so young you can't write them off, the final chapter on this deal still hasn't been written.

Which is a good thing, because here's how Johan's performed as a Met.

Johan Santana	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
New York Mets	26-14	52	52	3	2	0	0	350.2	309	123	106	38	100	318	2.72	1.17

The good news for the organization is that people are already so disappointed with the outcome of this deal (the immediate satisfaction crowd is disproportionately large compared to those who prefer the long-term view) that even if none of these guys turn into bonafide stars, the worst of the reaction has already come and gone. From where I'm standing, the review of this swap has nowhere to go but up. Hopefully.

In a comment earlier today I mentioned that Mulvey is getting this call because he's been one of Rochester's most consistent pitchers since coming over from the Mets. After doing my homework I've come to see that's not exactly true, but in spite of ups and downs it's the body of work that still stands out. He has a 3.50 minor league ERA, and over his last ten triple-A starts has pitched 68.1 innings with 50 strikeouts and 19 walks, and a more than acceptable 3.82 ERA. His FIP is even lower, at 3.55.

Good strikeout rates and mediocre walk rates point to Mulvey having the potential to be something more than a replacement-level arm, especially if he can continue inducing ground balls as he has this season (52% GB rate). But just like all of the available parts from Rochester, this is a spot he has to earn. If he struggles, the upside isn't there to entice the organization to keep him up in the hope that he comes around.

Best of luck, Mr. Mulvey.

Poll

Look into your magic 8-ball. Did the Twins win the Johan Santana trade?

Very doubtful (Or, The Mets Won...duh)

173 votes

You may rely on it (Or, Yes)

16 votes

Reply hazy, try again (Or, come back in a few years and ask again)

134 votes

323 votes | Poll has closed

Go Ahead, Criticize The One Thing He's Good At

Sam Page — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:59:14 -0000

Leave it to John Harper to come to the same conclusion as the rest of us, after exhausting the most backward logic, based on a wealth of misinformation. After the usual trumping up of Jerry Manuel's "request" for a trade, we begin:

But the problem is the Mets have so few desirable prospects at the upper levels of their farm system that Minaya is dealing from a position of weakness in trying to make any type of trade.

This statement would have been somewhat true before the promotion of Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, and Ike Davis. I'd say the Mets now have quite a few desirable prospects in the upper levels. In fact, here's a list of notable prospects in Buffalo and Binghamton: Jon Niese, Tobi Stoner, Michael Antonini, Eddie Kunz, Fernando Martinez, Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, Ike Davis, Shawn Bowman, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada, Dylan Owen, and sometimes Jonathan Malo. Wow, actually that's quite a few, seven of which should crack some top prospects lists. But go on...

Of course, he has only himself to blame for that, as the lack of prospects developed during Minaya's five-year regime with the Mets is a glaring failure. Never mind top prospects, the simple lack of major-league ready talent is haunting the big club at the moment as the Mets scramble to survive all their injuries.

Is the insinuation here that Omar should have some major league ready prospect ready to fill in everytime someone gets injured? No team can realistically do that, which is why bench player depth exists (hint, hint, the really glaring failure of the Minaya regime). Oh, what's this? Here comes the major-league ready talent graduated during Minaya's tenure list: Lastings Milledge, Daniel Murphy, John Maine, Nick Evans, Jon Niese, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Bobby Parnell. Not bad for a win-now team with a huge payroll.

Consider that the Mets' top two minor league teams are a combined 39 games under .500 - Triple-A Buffalo is 26-47, Double-A Binghamton is 28-46 - and it gives you an idea of how bleak the situation is.

Listen, I know expectations were high for Mike Lamb as the future face of the franchise, but there were signs. He had been cut from the Twins last year after batting .200. He was 33. We should have seen it coming. That, coupled with Willy Mo busting,...it's been a tough year for Mets fans.

Furthermore, one scout who observed Buffalo in mid-June recently said that Fernando Martinez was the only position player who could be considered a major-league prospect. The scout called the Mets' system "impotent" and openly wondered whether Minaya has had any kind of real plan in place other than acquiring high-priced free-agents.

Either Harper is quoting his scout friend, Cpt. Obvious, out of context, or they both have serious logic problems.

Ouch.

To be fair, the Mets did surrender a total of 11 players in the trades for Johan Santana and J.J. Putz the last two years, and at the time of the Putz deal last winter, Minaya made a point of telling reporters that his farm system deserved more respect.

alley...

To be just as fair, however, major leaguers Aaron Heilman and Endy Chavez were the key cogs in the Putz trade, and the Mets got Santana because the Twins were backed into a corner, unable to get the Yankees or Red Sox to package their top minor-league talent.

OOP!! Or perhaps it reflects well on Minaya's ability developing the farm and as a General Manager that he didn't trade his best young players for Santana? No, no, no, the Twins had to trade him because the Red Sox wouldn't offer Ellsbury and Buchholz.

"Sir, the Yankees won't trade Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy all at once."

"Who's that team that keeps offering four prospects for Mike Lamb? Y'know, the really impotent one?"

"The Mets?"

"Yea, see if they'll take Santana on too."

Did you ever think the Twins, arguably the greatest scouting team in the majors, might have liked Gomez and Guerra, both of whom were ranked as top prospects?

In addition, it's worth noting that outfielder Carlos Gomez, the centerpiece of the Santana trade, was in the Mets' system before Minaya became GM, and the Twins have been disappointed in the three minor-league pitchers, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and Philip Humber (who was released this spring), in the deal.

It's like...pitching prospects have a high rate or attrition...or something crazy like that! I'm sure the Twins would have been much happier getting the mythical Ian Kennedy/Phil Hughes package Harper alludes to. Those two have never disappointed.

P.S. Omar Minaya left his position with the Mets, where he was heavily involved in international scouting, in 2002. Carlos Gomez signed with the Mets as an international free agent in 2002. If you asked Omar Minaya what he thought about Carlos Gomez before he became the Mets' GM, he'd probably have an answer.

On the other hand, under Minaya the Mets have developed pitchers Mike Pelfrey and Bobby Parnell, as well as infielder Daniel Murphy. And signing free agents has cost them a couple of top draft picks in recent years.

but you already made me do the list!

But the real sticking point is the apparent failure to cash in on the Pedro Martinez signing five years ago. At the time Minaya essentially said he was willing to overpay for Pedro, in the form of $52 million over four years, because of the dividends it would provide, because every kid in the Dominican Republic would want to sign with the Mets.

Since then, however, the only such signings of significance appear to be Fernando Martinez, 19-year-old shortstop Ruben Tejada and 17-year-old shortstop Wilmer Flores. That's not exactly a pipeline of talent.

Those three players certainly don't suggest a pipeline of Dominican talent, mostly because only one of them is Dominican in the first place. Here are some Mets' prospects that are actually from the country he's talking about: Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia, Francisco Pena, Cesar Puello, Greg Veloz, Jeury Familia, Elvin Ramirez, and Juan Lagares. Notice that list does not account for many of the most recent signings and the Mets Dominican Baseball Academy in Boca Chica, DR.

-snip-
"By now I thought their system would be loaded with good (Latin) players," one major league scouting director said recently. "But for whatever reason, it hasn't happened."

Is it so bad the Mets don't throw three million dollars at every international prospect on the market? Yes, I wish they would go after more talents like Ynoa, but they seem to get the best bang for the buck of any MLB team. Which makes me wonder, has Harper ever heard of Jenrry Mejia? Signed for a relatively small bonus from the Dominican Republic...throws a 95 mph sinking fastball...is dominating AA as a teenager...no? Nevermind.

The same baseball people say the Mets do have attractive prospects at the lower levels of their minor-league system, Flores especially, and righthander Brad Holt, their first-round supplemental pick a year ago who was recently promoted to Double-A.

Brad Holt, a very attractive lower-level prospect, in the Mets upper-levels...

Either one would get the attention of a team looking to make a trade, but considering how few such prospects the Mets have, it hardly seems worth it to include them in quick-fix deals for someone like Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson or Aubrey Huff - or even Mark DeRosa, who was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals on Saturday.

Wow, how'd we get here? Yes, the Mets should not trade top prospects for a player that will only help minimally, but not because the farm system is barren. They shouldn't make those trades period. They're not going to be worth their prices, and the Mets have much bigger problems than what a DeRosa-type or Adam "0 WAR" Dunn is going to solve.

Listen, I blame Minaya for alot, but not for the work he's done internationally or with the farm system. The Mets have their best farm in 10 years and are in a great position to develop a fantastic young team. There was nothing before Minaya, except what he had left behind from his scouting days and Steve Philips' favorite Jose Cruz Jr. trade bait, David Wright.

Which reminds me, do you remember why the Mets are so desperate for a trade, Mr. Harper? They lost a shortstop, who you affectionately called a headcase, who Minaya signed for nothing out of the Dominican Republic. Does that count as major-league ready talent?

Catching Up: Twinkie Town's 2009 Top 10 Prospects

Jesse — Wed, 13 May 2009 12:00:17 -0000

A review of the organization's top ten prospects, as voted by you: the Twinkie Town faithful. A full list can be found by scrolling down and checking out the left side content bar.

#10: Luke Hughes, 3B/DH
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Minor League Experience: 7 seasons
Age: 24

Hughes has had a great start to the year, batting .277/.378/.505 over his first 101 at-bats. His five homers give him the team lead, with four coming off southpaws. In fact, so far this season Hughes has destroyed left-handed pitching. Unfortunately the fielding doesn't seem to be improving much, as he's already been charged with eight errors. While it's hard to judge anything of his defense by the 'E' stats, committing eight of them already isn't a good thing. Minor League Splits values his third base defense at -4 runs against league average. Right now his value is still all offense, and because he's a fly-ball hitter he's going to have to start making better contact if he's going to stay productive. A 15.6% line-drive rate doesn't do him favors, and he's popping up too often.

#9: Deolis Guerra, RHP
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 20

Guerra's had an up and down start to the season, having had the bottom drop out in two of his starts. He's a ground-ball pitcher, but at times he can be susceptible to getting rocked, particularly by right-handed hitters. The fastball isn't there right now, which was supposed to be a big plus. It's early, and he's only just turned 20 in April, but he needs to turn some sort of a corner and get the number of base runners under control.

#8: Tyler Robertson, LHP
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 21

Robertson, like Guerra, has been sabotaged by a pair of bad starts. Also like Guerra he's getting a lot of ground balls this year, which should do him favors if his defense can convert them into outs. There will always be worries about those mechanics, but as long as he produces good results those mechanics will continue to take a back seat. His low line-drive rate (14.1%) suggests some luck by the hitters (.310 BABIP), but continuing to pitch well should balance those numbers out.

#7: Anthony Swarzak, RHP
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 23

Anthony is proving he belongs at triple-A after a somewhat curious promotion late last year. Good strikeout rate, miniscule home run rate, good walk rate...he's earned the 1.70 ERA. Even the 2.85 FIP insists he's pitching well. Right now he's having success against hitters on both sides of the dish, and an impressive split is how effective he's been when his team is behind. As a starter that's an issue because he's already allowed his team to fall into a hole, but that's going to happen. Besides, to this point he's been good overall regardless. Being able to stymie the opposition in order to give your offense a chance is a good thing. If any one of the Minnesota starting rotation faulters, Swarzak should be the replacement.

#6: Jose Mijares, LH RP
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 24

The first (and only) member of the list to make it to The Bigs, Mijares had a short stint in Rochester in April. Over 6.1 innings he struck out four, walked one and allowed a pair of hits. Nobody scored. Since joining the Twins he's retired eight on strikes in just six innings, but on occasion has trouble locating his fastball. His last two outings have produced runs, the last being horribly painful. Luckily he's still one of the bullpen's best options, even though that statement is all relative right now, which means he's not in danger of being sent away any time soon.

#5: Wilson Ramos, C
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 21

Luckily Ramos' value is defensive, and he's a catcher, which means the .269/.289/.344 line isn't causing anyone to doubt his potential. Still, he's generally hit better than this in his time on the farm, so hopefully he'll be able to adjust to the harder competition he's seeing at double-A. He's done a bit better over the last 10 days, pounding out a .324 average. In the minor league depth chart, he sits behind only Drew Butera. And Jose Morales, if you want to count him. Which we probably should.

#4: Angel Morales, OF
Current Team: Beloit Snappers (A)
Minor League Experience: 3 seasons
Age: 19

It's been a slow start for Angel, who's still striking out at least once a game but is doing it so far this year without the production. The .587 OPS is very un-Morales as we know him to this point. Versus righties or lefties it's all been a struggle. We'll lean on his age and lack of experience in his first experience out of the Rookie Leagues, and hopefully as the season progresses we see some positive steps. Right now, from how things look, I wouldn't expect him to make it to Fort Myers before next year.

#3: Aaron Hicks, OF
Current Team: Currently in extended spring training
Minor League Experience: 1 season
Age: 19

Hicks is getting a little extra work in, which isn't a bad thing. The organization is stocked with talent at the outfield position at this point in time, which allows him the luxury of being able to have this time without feeling pressured to get onto a squad and put up impressive numbers like he did last summer. Most likely he'll repeat a short season in the Rookie League, barring an injury or a performance so bad that someone gets the axe. Still, after hitting .314/.401/.479 for the GCL Twins last summer, he'll be one to follow closely once he starts playing.

#2: Ben Revere, OF
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 3 seasons
Age: 21

The speedy contact hitter is already off to a good start, reaching base at a .377 clip in his first sting at high-A ball. The slugging is way down, at just .350, which might be closer to what you'd expect of a guy with his tools than the .461 and .497 numbers he posted in '07 and '08 in lower levels. He's still an extreme ground-ball hitter, and he's hitting a bit over his head versus southpaws so far; a .417 BABIP with onlly a 12.5% line drive rate just isn't sustainable, even for a guy with his speed. Still, the tools are there, and he's already stolen 15 bases in 29 games. If he can leg out a few more doubles, which he likely will as he adjusts to better pitching, his numbers will improve and we might even see him in New Britain by the time summer ends.

#1: Danny Valencia, 3B
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 24

Like his hot-corner counterpart in Rochester, Valencia is off to a hot start. The walks are there, the power is there, and so is the defense. He's a bit of a ground-ball hitter, but when he gets ahold of one, he really gets ahold of it. His three homers in 84 at-bats aren't impressive, but they tie him for the squad lead and he has plenty of other extra-base hits to supplement his production. Right now all the power is coming against right-handed pitchers, so if he learns to hit southpaws a bit better, his numbers will go through the roof. The line of .298/.404/.524 is fantastic, and if Hughes gets a call at any point this season it wil mean a promotion for Valencia as well. It's been a slow but steady climb for Daniel, but he seems to be almost a sure shot to breach the majors next summer if not this September. He's a great choice for the organization's number one prospect.

Twins Prospects In Baseball America's Top 100

Jesse — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 01:09:09 -0000

Who are they?

In recent seasons we've been accustomed to seeing a Twin or two sitting pretty high in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect rankings. Francisco Liriano and Joe Mauer come to mind, but even when Minnesota isn't making appearances at the top of the list they at least get quantity points. Here's how they stack up in 2009.

Aaron Hicks, OF
BA Rank: 39

via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

Baseball America estimates Hicks will breach the majors in 2011, which would make him 21 on opening day. He has the tools, and he raked with the GCL Twins in '08, but it's always easy to be optimistic when you're basing career projections off of one professional minor league season. Count me in that optimistic camp for the time being, but he's going to have to work on making better contact to keep up those good offensive numbers. As he progresses and starts to meet better pitchers and better defenses, an 8% lind drive rate isn't going to get the job done.

Ben Revere, OF
BA Rank: 59

via www.freewebs.com

Like Hicks, BA predicts a 2011 major league debut. He'd turn 23 May of that year. While Hicks currently projects as a guy who could hit almost anywhere in a batting order, Revere is a top or bottom kind of guy. His speed and on-base percentage are his most valuable assets, but he's still young and could surprise a bit as he continues to fill out. His arm strength is what really puts him a notch below Hicks, although he might just be fast enough to catch anything hit near him, in which case he won't be pressed to show off the Shannon Stewart-esque noodle too often.

Wilson Ramos, C
BA Rank: 71

via www.tigresdearagua.net

How about that--another 2011 prediction. Wilson would be just 23 still, but it certainly seems like BA expects a bit of roster turnover in the next three years. As for Ramos, he has a career line of .288/.344/.435 in three minor league seasons He's skilled and relatively polished for his age, but he'll be put to the test in New Britain this season. If he continues to excel at the dish and continues to gun down base runners, 2011 might not be too optimistc of a debut. But if he stagnates, his life on BA's prospect list may be short-lived. Hopefully his strength and ability can help off-set his aggression.

That's it, folks. There are no pitchers on the list, and only three players total. What does this mean?

There are three options--either the Minnesota farm system isn't as strong going into 2009 as it has been recently, the talent levels throughout the minor leagues are stronger across the board, or Baseball America isn't paying adequate tribute to the talent pool for our Land O Lakes organization. Or there's option number four, all of the above.

Names like Luke Hughes, Deibinson Romero, Danny Valencia, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Swarzak and Rene Tosoni come to mind, but none of them are necessarily being done a disservice by being left off this list. They're all good, or have some decent upside, but none of them are slam-dunk shoulda-been-on-the-list names, and that's the bottom line. In the prospect bell curve this isn't a top-heavy organization, and that's perfectly represented in BA's Top 100.

All thirty MLB teams were represented in the list, with the Astros, Nationals, Padres and Tigers represented just once each. The Rangers and Athletics held seven spots apiece to lead the pack, while the Marlins held second place with six spots. The Braves and the Rays tied for second by splitting ten spots between them.