SB Nation - Ryan Rowland-Smith

84-77, Game Notes

Jeff — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 07:49:43 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

Hole In The Wall

And so we're to that point in the year where it becomes less about wanting to see these guys win at all costs and more about wanting to see them be happy. It's a transition that, I think, makes you more forgiving, and it's with that in mind that I'd like to congratulate Miguel Batista on a job well done. He made that ninth inning look easy.

We've flipped Batista a lot of crap for a long time. It'd be hard to say he didn't deserve it. From his poor performance to his laborious pace to his seeming aloofness and detachment from his teammates, he didn't do a whole lot to win anyone over. He just never really looked like he cared very much, and as a professional athlete, that's a bad attitude to convey. He never endeared himself to the fan base, and the list of people counting down the days until his contract expires would take longer to read off than the time between any two of Miguel's pitches.

But fanhood changes as the summer winds down and you realize you're not playing for anything. When you root for a competiting team, it's all about performance. It has to be. You're cutthroat about it, because you know you need the best performance to bring home a title. When you root for a team that's faded out of it, though, it becomes less about the numbers and more about the actual players. More about finding enjoyment in the fact that the players are still enjoying themselves despite being out of the race. It's a different sort of satisfaction, but a fulfilling one. Smiles and celebrations give us glimpses of personality, and nothing draws us closer to the players than when they come across as people.

After Miguel Batista struck out Taylor Teagarden to end the game, he leapt in the air and pumped his fists in a rare display of emotion. And where a few months ago I might've joked about it, tonight I just feel genuinely happy for him. Miguel Batista is a person. We have no reason to believe that he's a bad person, and a handful of reasons to believe he's a good one. There are any number of explanations for why he's done things the way he's done them, and just because he works slowly or doesn't participate in the bullpen hijinks is no reason to wish him ill. People are different. And Miguel Batista is a 38 year old reliever coming off a couple rough years. This very well could have been the final appearance of his career, and so for him to nail down a save in such dominating fashion...Miguel was able to close out a difficult chapter and perhaps a whole book with a fairytale ending, and no matter how frustrating he's been in the past, you have to feel good that he feels good. Every author knows the power of a strong conclusion.

Tomorrow afternoon, we're going to say goodbye to Ken Griffey Jr. Even if he's not actually going away. He's going to receive a rousing, thunderous ovation twenty years in the making. But while Griffey's will get all the press, there are dozens of stories in that clubhouse, stories at different stages, some building up and some winding down, but all of them changing. Though they're not all best-sellers, every single one of them means the world. Take a moment to recognize as many as you can, if only because every story in there has in some way affected your own.

A strong way for Ryan Rowland-Smith to cap off a year that wound up way better than anyone would've imagined back in May. RRS breezed through the better part of the first six innings, and though he got himself into trouble there in the seventh with the Elvis Andrus ground-rule double, he pitched himself two-thirds of the way out of the jam before letting Shawn Kelley finish the job. I've said it a million times before, but while pitcher wins don't mean much of anything to us, they mean a ton to the pitchers themselves, and so after losing his win late against Toronto the last time out, tonight RRS is probably one part relieved and two parts ecstatic that he was able to come away with win #5. I'm sure he would've rather taken care of the seventh inning himself, but realistically, this is just about how every pitcher wants to close out his season.

In twelve starts a year ago, RRS posted a walk rate of 8.7%. This year he trimmed it to 6.7% while slightly raising his strikeouts. Once the injuries were behind him, he answered every question.

RRS also happened to turn one of the more unusually impressive double plays I've ever seen. With men on the corners and one down in the top of the sixth, Marlon Byrd hit a comebacker on the ground that RRS fielded in midair, behind his back, and between his legs, before firing to second. It was a powerful reminder of the effectiveness of instant human reaction, which, when considered in conjunction with Jose Lopez's error problem on slower groundballs, causes me to entertain the unexpected possibility that Lopez's problem is that he thinks too much.

Before the game, David Aardsma and Mark Lowe apologized to Jason Vargas for costing him a win last night. Inspired, Alan Cockrell left notes in every pitcher's locker.

Sometime in the early going, Dave Sims mentioned the Mariners' positive record and negative run differential in the same sentence. I know sometimes it doesn't seem like it, but between things like this and all the previous on-air talk about UZR and OOZ and so forth, we have to have one of the more statistically-advanced broadcasts in baseball. I like Sims for always being so genuine and enthusiastic, but I think what I love about our broadcast the most is that it so rarely says anything stupid. Godspeed, Hendu.

Weed used to bother me. It used to bother me a lot, and even though, in my head, I knew that it wasn't meaningfully different from drinking, it still took ages to get over whatever obstacle it was and let my brain's reaction be my body's. With that said, one of my greatest regrets is that, even after five years, I still haven't come to terms with the fact that chasing after bad pitches is just part of Adrian Beltre's overall package. Intellectually, I know it's not a big deal. Every player has flaws, and it's not fair to ask them to be perfect. But for some reason, though I'm perfectly willing to accept, say, RRS' fly balls or Russell Branyan's strikeouts, I still respond to Beltre's fishing exploits the same way I did in 2005. "STOP! JUST STOP AND DON'T DO THAT!!" I don't know what it is about certain players that makes us always want them to be better, but I'm afraid that's a burden that Beltre's going to have to shoulder as long as he plays. Unless he maybe stops swinging at those God damn unhittable pitches.

Andruw Jones was once the premier defensive outfielder in baseball. Now he's a fat DH with the occasional spell at first base. He's 32. The way he bluffed towards third on his fifth inning double looked just like how Yuni used to bluff towards any groundball hit to his left.

Kelley got the job done in the top of the seventh, but realistically, Franklin Gutierrez is the reason Michael Young didn't pick up a three-run double. Young smoked a pitch to deep center field that kept slicing to the right, but Guti read it off the bat immediately, set off in a dead sprint, and arrived so quickly that he actually had to slow down before making the catch. This isn't a play I can do justice with words. There wasn't anything visually spectacular about it. He didn't have to dive or leave his feet or crash into the wall. It was just a display of how perfect instincts and awesome range can make a nigh-impossible play look almost easy. When Gutierrez ran it down, I thought "well I guess that wasn't as difficult a play as I thought," but the more I reflected on it, the more I realized that there aren't many other outfielders in the league who track that ball down. Gutierrez is just that much better than pretty much everyone else. And he has a bad knee.

Griffey's line drive home run just barely had enough to squeak out. Hopefully that means he saved up enough strength to hit another one tomorrow. If I have to watch another Mariner legend end his career with a double play I'm going to be mad as a wet hen.

80-76, Quick Game Notes

Jeff — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:57:31 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Teacher: Billy! What happened to you! Ruiz: Yes, Billy, what happened to you? Billy: I FELL

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Not a lot to say, and not a lot of desire to say it on a beautiful afternoon. We lost. Oh no.

Ryan Rowland-Smith is probably mad at himself for letting the win get away from him, but truth be told, I don't know that he should've been out there to start the eighth in the first place. He'd already thrown 104 pitches through seven innings, and though that's fewer than he threw in each of his previous five starts, by the same token, that's an awful lot of labor on a guy who already missed a chunk of time and doesn't exactly have the most durable track record. Plus, there was nothing but righties due up. RRS admitted that he ran out of gas in that final inning, and as far as I know it wasn't until John McDonald doubled that Wak even got someone up in the bullpen. A tough way to spoil an otherwise effective and pretty typical start.

Wak's choice of arms in the bullpen didn't win him any fans, either - Miguel Batista wound up pitching, with Garrett Olson warming up. I doubt he would've done that in an important game, but it's still never pleasant to see. Why Olson didn't come in when Adam Lind pinch-hit is beyond me. I'm a fan of Wakamatsu, but that eighth inning left a sour taste in my mouth, and I'd like to hear his explanation for why he managed it the way he did.

It's really fun to hate Miguel Batista, and I'm right there with you, but you know why he's been able to make so much money? Because sometimes he throws pitches like this.

The first one - the Felix one - you saw a few days ago. The Batista one is from this afternoon, and PITCHfx clocked it at 97mph. Miguel Batista is like old Felix if you take away old Felix's slider, curveball, and change.

The first time we saw a Mariner do that crotch chop thing, we assumed it was vulgar in nature. Recently Geoff Baker's posted a bunch of material trying to trace it back to more wholesome Japanese origin. Today, when Mike Sweeney returned to the dugout after his home run, the gesture was accompanied by a clearly audible "suck my dick". I don't know if today was just a joke after the team caught wind of the discussion or something, but at least one time now it has been unequivocally juvenile.

Kenji Johjima has very quietly raised his batting line to .251/.298/.413, and his nine home runs would put him on a 21-homer pace over 600 PAs. What the team is going to do about him this offseason remains a mystery, but as of this writing he is almost certainly the best catcher in the organization.

79-72, Game Notes

Jeff — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 07:13:06 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Seattle Mariners' Ichiro Suzuki, right, of Japan, reaches out to high-five teammate Mike Carp while Tampa Bay Rays' Dioner Navarro, center, looks on with particular interest. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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So I'll be writing the Mariners chapter again in the upcoming Hardball Times Season Preview. And as much as they probably frown on this sort of thing, should they ask for a brief review of 2009, I can already tell you how it's going to end: though the M's were well out of the race by the middle of August, they found a way to make those meaningless games down the stretch borderline watchable.

I don't know how better to summarize a team that's been both disappointing and so totally not disappointing at all.

Not really a banner night for Ryan Rowland-Smith, but for one thing, he's more than earned the right to have a start like this, and for another, he didn't see a lefty bat all game. Ordinarily a lefty starter doesn't see that many lefty bats to begin with, and lefties had accounted for just 26% of plate appearances against RRS on the season coming in, but 26% multiplied by the 25 batters RRS faced today comes out to six or seven, and that can make a pretty big difference.

I dunno, just a thought. Though an issue, righties weren't Ryan's only problem tonight, however, as he admitted that he didn't have his best stuff against a pretty good offense. He was better about getting his curveball over, an issue he recently lamented, but his fastball was hit or miss and he couldn't depend on his changeup. Only 13 of the 27 he threw went for strikes, including just two of his final 11, and without his best change, RRS had a tough time avoiding trouble. He allowed three runs through 5+ innings, and it very easily could've been a whole lot worse.

That said, considering RRS walked all of four batters over his previous five starts, I think it's safe to say this is more of a blip than a red flag. Nobody wants to see a guy have a game like this (except Trey Hillman on Monday), but it's not a problem unless it becomes a habit, and I'm inclined to pay more attention to RRS' entire 2009 body of work rather than a single off night. He'll be fine.

This was the first Mariners game I've been able to watch on MLB.tv in a week, and the first thing I saw when I booted it up was that damn Geico commercial with 3 Doors Down. It's like I never left. It's tempting to suggest that it's all just clever satire - the Geico cavemen are miserable beings, and 3 Doors Down is a miserable band - but I fear that would be giving the advertising department too much credit, and that rather than using their outlet to mock one of the more alarming success stories of the last decade of musicianship, they honestly believe that the combination of formulaic corporate lite rock with oversensitive business troglodytes is going to help them sell their own insurance, provided the potential customer is exposed to the commercial 14 times a game.

A lot of people like to make fun of YouTube commenters. I think all you need to know about them is that, of the last 62 comments left on the ad's page that express an opinion, 61 were positive.

In the early innings today, the entire Mariner bullpen lined up to shake the hand of a ball guy who gave a foul ball to a little girl by the wall. I think it's to the point where our bullpen has literally taken on a life of its own. As one unit, one peculiar unit that envelops all who tread near. I can imagine them all living together in a household similar to the ESPN studios during Y2K, and I can also imagine that it's all a very weird experience for people like Brandon Morrow and Garrett Olson who've worked both as starters and in relief.

Morrow: Hey guys.
Hannahan: Hey Brandon, welcome back.
Johnson: So Brandon, hey, I've been meaning to ask you.
Morrow: Yeah?
Johnson: What's it like?
Morrow:
Johnson: You know
Johnson: Out...there.
Morrow:
Morrow: Y'know
Morrow:
Morrow: I don't really...know.
Wakamatsu: Luke!
French: What's going on, skip?
Wakamatsu: Hey, Luke. Brandon's starting. You're going to the bullpen.
French: oh
French: oh god
Langerhans: You're shaking.
French: oh my god

In the bottom of the fifth, Adrian Beltre made a fine shorthop grab and throw to retire Gabe Kapler, and Dave Sims and Mike Blowers took the opportunity to point out just how spoiled we are by his play at third base. How spoiled are we? So spoiled that I doubt many of those who watched could recall the play he'd just made. Adrian Beltre has a .668 OPS and has been an above-average player.

Jose Lopez's tiebreaking homer in the 8th was his 25th of the season, and though little milestones like that don't really mean that much to us as fans, they mean a lot to the players, as evidenced by Lopez requesting the ball back from the fan who got it. However, the fan - pictured below - refused to cooperate.

Drayer says the fan turned down an offer of both an autographed bat and an autographed ball in exchange for the homer. Now, I'm trying really hard these days to be less judgmental. To judge people less often by their behavior or appearance observed in a small sample. With that in mind, it's possible that the man pictured is a genuinely good guy who's wanted to catch a foul or a homer his entire life, and that he plans to put this ball on his mantle and cherish it, or that he intends to take it home to present to his son or daughter as a surprise. Keeping the ball under the circumstances is a little selfish, but then we're all selfish, and we shouldn't pass judgment without knowing the whole story. It's entirely possible that the ball could bring more happiness to the fan or to someone he knows than it would to Jose Lopez.

On the other hand, Axe Factory featured enough reliable indicators of probable blockheadedness that I'd support the extreme measures suggested by Sims and Blowers on the broadcast. They used to settle these conflicts a little differently, don't you know.

Given that Griffey and Sweeney are the life of the dugout, I would wager that #3 hitter Jose Lopez enjoys his homers the least.

Miguel Batista has retired 11 consecutive batters.

Ichiro went 1-4 while Joe Mauer went 1-3. Though Ichiro's hit was twice as good as Mauer's, batting champ contenders don't get credit for style points, which means the chances now are even slimmer than they were this afternoon. Should Ichiro determine that he won't catch up to Mauer, an interesting backup plan would be trying to make all of his hits home runs.

Fantasy Baseball: On the spot

Ian, yo — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 00:13:04 -0000

As we approach the end of the fantasy baseball season, you may be looking out for spot starts more than normal. Over the last few weeks, I've been spot starting and keeping an eye on matchups and it's been pretty successful. The basis of this strategy should be to start guys against offenses such as the Pittsburgh, Arizona, San Diego and the Kansas City's of the MLB. I'd also keep in mind where these matchups are taking place. I'm likely taking my chances of someone pitching in Petco Park in San Diego over someone starting at Coors in Colorado. For some stats on park factors, I recommend checking out this. Over the last week, I managed to get the following starts by using a combination of these strategies.

Kevin Correia @ Pittsburgh :7 IP, 1 W, 0 ER, 6 H, 5 K

Clayton Richard @ Pittsburgh: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 K

Brian Duensing vs. Oakland: 7 IP,1 W, 8 H, 0 ER, 6 K

Robinson Tejada @ Detroit: 5 IP, 1 W, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 K

Over the next week, you'll find a decent amount of matchups that could help you on your push to fantasy gold.

Jorge De La Rosa: I'm adding him in after some further thought. Post All-Star break, De La Rosa has put up an ERA of 2.89 while winning 9 of his 12 starts with 80 K's in 78 innings. I have hesitation due to his 4.77 ERA at home this season but I'll likely take my chances against a poor San Diego offense.

Bronson Arroyo: Not owned in a ton of leagues and over the last month has posted an ERA of 2.08 in 43.1 innings. He'll see the Pirates on Thursday the 24th and in his last start against them had a solid line of 8 IP, 4 H, 4 Ks.

Clay Buchholz: Buchholz Hasn't faced the Royals this season but has done a fairly decent job of shutting down better offenses this year. Over his last three starts, he's allowed fewer than one run against the Orioles and Rays and on the season has allowed less than two earned runs again the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers and the Athletics. He's had two games where he gave up seven earned against the Orioles and White Sox but has been good overall. Buchholz's lack of experience against Kansas City could prove beneficial and allow him to be a solid spot start this week.

Hiroki Kuroda: In his 19 starts, Kuroda has had four games where he's given up more than three earned runs. Washington ranks near the middle of the pack in runs scored but Kuroda has put up decent numbers against some of the better offenses (St. Louis, Florida, Milwaukee, Chicago White Sox) so I have no huge concerns starting him. Just beware that the Washington offense is fairly underrated and could give anyone a hard time at any moment.

Brett Anderson: He'll get a Texas offense that ranks 10th in the AL in the month of September at home in a largely pitching favorable park in Oakland. Anderson has big K potential, striking out ten Indians on September 18th. Over the last month, Anderson's pitched 31 innings and 30 K with an ERA of 2.90 and WHIP of 1.10. He's not owned in many leagues and could easily be a successful spot starter for you.

Honorable mentions: Ryan Rowland-Smith @ TB, Wade Davis vs. SEA at home, Jonathan Sanchez @ AZ, Tim Wakefield @ KC, Brian Duensing @ CWS.

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ LAnaheim Angels

Jeff — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 20:23:08 -0000

Seattle: 72-66
LAnaheim: 81-55

SUMMARY

	MARINERS	ANGELS	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-85.8	65.6	LAA
FIELDING (UZR)	65.7	-0.6	SEA
ROTATION (pRAA)	-27.2	0.3	LAA
BULLPEN (pRAA)	-25.0	-4.5	LAA
OVERALL(RAA)	-72.3	60.8	LAnaheim

Never having written one of these before, holy crap, this team really isn't good. Hooray defense and all that (fun fact: we're second-worst in errors and by far the best in range), but defense is the least important of the three big skills, and we've been lousy at the other two. Also, hey, the gap between these two teams has widened by 15.8 runs since we played the Angels last week, and by 87.4 runs since we played them at the end of May. Though the Angels have overachieved, we have, too, and for the ten thousandth year in a row, the fact of the matter is that they're quite a bit better than us.

These aren't your grandpappy's Angels, either. Games featuring the Angels have averaged the highest number of total runs scored in baseball (10.50), narrowly edging out the Yankees (10.47). There are still elements of classic Angels baseball in there, of course - stolen bases, infield hits, balls in play, and so on - but where losses to them used to be met with frustration, now they're met with profound understanding. "Oh right they bludgeon now." It seems the Mariners are the new team that when you lose to them you don't get how it happened. I'm glad we've become a worse version of my least favorite team ever.

How the hell are we winning this season series?

GAMES

Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs. Scott Kazmir *
Game 2: Ian Snell vs. Jered Weaver
Game 3: Ryan Rowland-Smith vs. John Lackey

Well this is an intimidating trio to face. Kazmir wouldn't be much but for the fact that he, like so many other pitchers, recently whupped our ass. There are ways to recommend that a normal baseball team beat a pitcher, and there are ways to recommend that the Mariners beat a pitcher. For normal teams, you beat Kazmir by forcing him to come into the zone. For the Mariners, you beat Kazmir by hoping Felix throws a shutout. I imagine we'll run out a lineup with a ton of righties tonight, but the last time we did that against Kazmir we got three hits.

We used to call Jered Weaver overrated. He was. He's not an ace. But he's been pretty much exactly the same pitcher he was a year ago, and a year ago he was a good pitcher who threw strikes and missed bats while surviving an extraordinary fly ball rate. He can be exposed against lefties, but his changeup is good enough that it's not a huge concern. Snell's going to have to be on the top of his game, or more realistically he'll have to be on the top of someone better's game.

John Lackey is going to be really rich soon. Remember when he was struggling? I think he got mad.

The Angels are five games better than Texas and have something like an 85-90% chance of taking the division. If we are to do anything about that, we have to start now.

53-48; On No-Hit Bids

Jeff — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 06:27:41 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

THE MARINERS DID THIS

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I wonder what it is about no-hit bids that attracts such fervor and enthusiasm. Whenever there's even the slightest hint that a pitcher has something special going on, fans turn all superstitious and start pulling for the pitcher like he was their pilot on a jet with busted engines. It's always "come on, just a little bit more, just a little bit more" until either a roar of approval or a sigh of resignation. Few things bring out classic fan emotion quite like a pitcher who hasn't allowed a hit.

Is it because no-hitters end with a win? No, of course not. Even the worst teams win 60 games a year, and the fan response to a no-hitter isn't in line with the significance of a single game.

Is it because a no-hitter improves one's perception of a starting pitcher? No. No-hitters are pulled for to equal extents by all sorts of fans, even the ones who understand that one start doesn't change very much and that a no-hitter is as much about luck as it is about skill.

Is it because a no-hitter establishes one team's dominance over another? No. For one thing, fans everywhere tend to cheer for them - not just fans of the team with the pitcher (this applies to the previous points as well) - and for another, no-hitters draw far greater reactions than your standard run-of-the-mill blowout. It isn't about making the other team look pathetic.

Is it about seeing history? This one's more likely, but I still don't think it gets to the heart of the matter. Seeing history is great, but history happens all the time. Mark Buehrle just threw a perfect game. Bobby Cox extended his all-time lead in ejections. Todd Helton hit his 500th career double. Joel Pineiro struck a guy out. It's cool when you get to witness something rare, but I still don't think that that alone is a good enough reason for people to get so invested in no-hitters.

No - if I were a betting man (and I am, quite often in fact), I'd wager that the reason people get so into a no-hit bid is that fans love it when players celebrate. It's part of why walk-off wins are so exhilarating, and it's why we'll still watch a World Series without any teams we care about. Fans take special pleasure in watching professional athletes laugh and jump around and hug each other and just act like normal people. I'm not sure why that is, exactly. I'm not sure what it is about Jonathan Sanchez that made me so happy to see him overcome with emotion. Maybe seeing professional athletes act like people helps fans feel a stronger connection to the players they watch on TV every day. But whatever it is, I think anyone will tell you that the best part of a no-hitter is watching the pitcher two seconds after the final pitch.

When you start to get close to a no-hitter, then, the pressure begins to mount, and while it's the players who have to go out there and try to seal the deal, the fans are no less aware of the gravity of the situation. Everyone becomes tense, and if a player gets a hit, it just feels like someone took a pipe to your stomach. You're disappointed that the players don't get to celebrate, you're disappointed that you don't get to watch the players celebrate - when you have someone who looks unhittable on the mound, like Felix did against Boston or Morrow did against the Yankees, and he gives up a hit, all the wind is taken out of your sails. All of a sudden "something special" begins to resemble just a really good start, and in that sort of circumstance a really good start becomes a letdown.

There are certain occasions, however, where a spoiled no-hitter doesn't necessarily spoil the game. With some pitchers, you know they're capable of pulling one off. Felix, Sanchez, Morrow, Buehrle - when these kinds of guys are at the tops of their games, the sky's the limit, and their no-hit bids carry not only promise but a certain sort of expectation. They should record a no-hitter. They have the talent. And it's only by seeing them complete the effort that you'll get to watch them horse around like little kids.

With other guys, though, the notion of a complete game no-hitter seems so improbable that each subsequent out is met with laughter and disbelief. RRS is one of those guys. I imagine he'd be the first to tell you that he'll never no-hit a Major League lineup. With these guys, no-hit bids carry a little more levity and a little less weight, and while you're still pulling for them to accomplish the feat, seeing them lose it isn't quite so agonizing. When a guy like Ryan Rowland-Smith has worked six no-hit innings, you don't get ahead of yourself as a fan; you just go along with the ride without building up your expectations, and by not building yourself up too high, a hit doesn't break you back down.

RRS got two-thirds of the way to a Major League no-hitter this afternoon. It's too bad that we didn't get to see him pull it off. But while I would've loved to see him celebrate with Kenji Johjima in the middle of the infield, I can't bring myself to be disappointed with the way things turned out, because RRS out-dueled Roy Halladay and came away with a win, and the truth of the matter is that that probably makes him every bit as ecstatic as he would've been had he held the Jays hitless. At the end of the day, I just want my Mariner players to be happy. And RRS is going to bed maybe the happiest he's ever felt.

It was a good game.

The Blue Jays rolled out an eight-righty lineup today, with an average ZiPS projection of a .332 wOBA overall and an average OPS against lefties of .829. RRS responded by throwing a ton of strikes, not walking a single batter while striking out four. This was as impressive a start as any he's ever thrown, and with an 89.5mph average fastball that topped out at 92, he was working at full strength. May all the speed bumps be behind him.

51-45, Game Notes

Jeff — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 08:51:07 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

HEY GUYS HEY GUYS DID YOU SEE THAT??! HEY GUYS!

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Things kind of came unglued there in the seventh when he made a couple mistakes, but for six innings, Ryan Rowland-Smith was everything we wanted him to be. He had his normal starting velocity, he had all of his offspeed stuff working, and save for a handful of pitches that got away from him, he had his command. Though he wasn't missing a lot of bats, that's not his M.O.; RRS is a contact pitcher, and the fact that he retired 14 consecutive hitters over one stretch should tell you something about the quality of that contact for much of the game.

The problem, of course, is that contact pitchers have very little margin for error, and tonight we saw the whole spectrum. Early on, the Indians hit a few pitches hard. Then nothing for innings at a time. Then they went back to smacking the ball. On the one hand it's a shame the seventh had to go and spoil Ryan's outing, but on the other, an inning like that is always lurking just beneath the surface, and the fact that RRS was good for six innings is no more or less important than the fact that he later got beat by the long ball. These are just the ups and downs of his sort of pitcher type. Granted, the seventh kind of took that to the extreme, but still.

I don't want to focus too much on the runs allowed, though, because the most important thing to take away from RRS' start tonight is that he made it back, looked himself, and tossed seven innings. I really liked the look of his curve - he was getting some really sharp break and using it as a weapon against righties - and one changeup in particular stood out, the one he threw to Victor Martinez for a strikeout in the sixth. Though his fastball's not great, having three offspeed pitches he can throw for strikes allows him to keep hitters from sitting on it. That's a big help. In a way, it's the difference between him and Garrett Olson.

Welcome back to the bigs, RRS. A guy like him is never going to blow anyone away or dominate over multiple innings, but that's not what he's expected to do, and if he can turn in a bunch of starts like tonight's, then he'll be of good value to this team going forward. Kick some ass, Ryan.

I understand that it was his bobblehead night, but still, I was blown away by the fact that Safeco gave Franklin Gutierrez a standing ovation before his first at bat. It's not that he didn't deserve one; it's that I never expected him to get one. Not from us. It's great to see Mariner fans becoming more invested in the team and more aware of what makes it good. Alternatively they might all just really hate Wladimir Balentien.

Jose Lopez' BABIP on July 14th: .249
Jose Lopez's BABIP since: .387

That didn't take long. The fact that Lopez has carried over his offensive success from 2008 should probably be a bigger story than it is, because there was a lot of skepticism over the winter.

A friend of a friend recently got a new haircut. Apparently she went in to the hairdresser and kept asking her to cut it shorter and shorter until the lady refused to cut anymore. The friend of a friend then went home and proudly showed off her follicular equivalent of an irritated cockatiel to anyone who would listen. Now, that sounds bad enough on its own, but compounding the problem is that friends aren't honest about things like this. Nobody likes this new haircut, but at the same time nobody has the nerve to be straight with this girl to her face, so since coming home she's received nothing but a steady stream of compliments.

When people change their appearance, they want to know how they look. They want an honest assessment more than a pleasing lie, because no one wants to walk around looking uglier on purpose. Unfortunately not even the closest friends are aware of this, so generally speaking even a change for the worse will be met with falsely positive reviews. It is with that in mind that I will do Miguel Batista a favor.

No, Miguel. Absolutely not. You have literally never looked worse.

Thoughts

Jeff — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 03:06:12 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Jose Lopez really hates breaking balls.

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So that was a fun weekend. Where things were looking grim after the loss to Cliff Lee, three games later we're right back in the thick of this and everyone's feeling pretty good about the way the team's playing. Every time you get frustrated with the Mariners for remaining on the edge of the race, remember one thing - as long as you're on the edge of the race, the games still matter. We're nearing the trade deadline, and the M's are still playing important baseball. After five months of irrelevance a year ago, I can't express how thankful I am to have the team be in this position. Sure, they could easily fall short - they're still in third place and four back of the lead - but if we get to invest ourselves and feel emotional about the bulk of the season, then that's still something. We're playing Detroit tomorrow. I would like to win. And as long as we can care about the outcomes - that's why we're here in the first place. Fuck off, 2008.

My understanding is that Erik Bedard didn't look very good yesterday, but if you missed the game and just look at his line score, you're left with a different impression. Plus strike rate, plus swinging strike rate. The successful results weren't all there, but the components were, and in the big picture I find the latter to be more important. It's obvious that Erik isn't totally right, but I'm actually more encouraged by his start than I thought I'd be when I was just getting brief updates over the course of the afternoon.

Anybody who's ever argued about pitcher control over HR/FB% just needs to watch the clip of Ichiro's game-ending catch at the wall. Aardsma's still only allowed one home run on the season, but it's not like the fact that the ball came up six inches short is evidence that Aardsma did something right. He gave up a long fly ball and got lucky. He's a good reliever, but hits like that are why he'll always make me nervous. Closers who put the ball in the air like Felix keeps the ball on the ground aren't the most comforting arms in the world.

I'm not a big fan of Jarrod Washburn the pitcher, and I don't think I'm a big fan of Jarrod Washburn the person, but I'm a big fan of Jarrod Washburn the personality:

"I wasn't sharp at all,'' he said. "I don't know how many spots I hit all night, but it wasn't many. The guys played good defense behind me. I had good life on the fastball, even though I wasn't hitting spots with it. I didn't square too many up.
There was a lot of fly balls tonight. My sinker wasn't sinking as well. I wasn't locating very good. It worked. We won. You go into a game and find out as the game progresses what you have that day and try to make it work."

There aren't a lot of starters who would be that honest about themselves after allowing one run over 6.2 innings, but this is just the latest refreshing example of Washburn's self-awareness. I'm pretty sure a big chunk of the fan base thinks Jarrod's better than Jarrod does.

It seems that Rob Johnson has officially taken over as the regular catcher. Kenji Johjima will still get his playing time, but if Johnson is going to be the personal catcher for three starters, then that makes him first-string, whether the team will admit as much or not. And, well, whatever. Dave's already made the case that his bat is better than people think, and while I don't think it's on the same level as Kenji's, the difference is small enough that I might as well trust that the coaches know what they're doing. There's never been any good evidence that catcher ERA means anything, but if pitchers are more comfortable with one guy over another - and I think it's pretty clear that Rob's the preferred receiver around here - then you don't really have much choice. There's a reason why some of the guys would rather throw to Rob than Kenji, and regardless of what that reason is, comfort's important, and not to be ignored. Most pitchers won't respond very well if they ask to be caught by one guy and you tell them "tough titties."

Me on June 24th:

Actually, I don't think Ronny Cedeno has a clue against anyone. In-season ZiPS projects him for a rest-of-season line of .246/.289/.366, but I think this might be one of those times where we have enough visual evidence to overrule the computer forecasts, because Cedeno has looked as bad as any Major League hitter I have ever seen in my life.

Ronny Cedeno since June 24th: .257/.286/.446. He still looks like total crap, and his plate discipline numbers over the course of this "hot streak" are embarrassing, but yet the results have still been there, so chalk another one up for in-season ZiPS. I wonder if this is what Ronny has always looked like. At the plate, he's visually repulsive, but he's still managed to hit more balls 400 feet than Jose Lopez. Though the Mariners could still use an everyday shortstop, you have to give it to Cedeno - for the past few weeks, he's helped.

Turns out RRS was sitting at 88-91 again in his most recent start, that being the dominant game in Las Vegas. He's now back at his standard starting velocity and has racked up 34 strikeouts and six walks in 42.2 innings over his last seven starts. Garrett Olson, meanwhile, can't throw strikes, miss bats, or keep the ball on the ground. Right now, Olson has the support of the coaching staff, but these things can change in a hurry, and with RRS beginning to look like a guy in Tacoma who's better than his league, Olson's going to need a good game tomorrow if he wants to hang on to his job. Man, it's good to have Ryan back.

King Felix is pretty good.

RRS Last Night

Jeff — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 18:23:49 -0000

7 innings
6 hits
2 solo homers
0 walks
9 strikeouts
75% strikes
16% swinging strikes

In 109-degree heat in a Las Vegas bandbox.

A Comparison

Jeff — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 23:25:34 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Here's a sexy picture.

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Do you like tables? I hope you like tables.

	Washburn	Vargas^
tRA	5.10	5.76
tRA*	5.21	5.05
Strike%	62.4	61.0
SwS%	7.5	7.7
GB%	37.6	38.3
LD%	22.5	20.4
^ as a starter

By the way, RRS is getting better down in Tacoma. Over his last six starts, he's thrown 35.2 innings, striking out 25 while walking six. His velocity the other day was 89-92 on the stadium gun, which - according to Ryan Divish - manager Daren Brown calls his best of the year. Last time we saw RRS in the Mariner rotation on a consistent basis, he was throwing 64% strikes with a 7.2% whiff rate.