SB Nation - Jonathon Niese

Life After Lackey Starts With Sheets

James Kannengieser — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:00:22 -0000

With three of the better free agent starting pitchers (John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden) off the market, and Roy Halladay a Phillie, Met fans have unsurprisingly started in with the it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk. Best practice to avoid this nonsense is turning off WFAN. Actually, that's probably a good idea in general, unless you're tuning in for the unintentionally hilarious grunts of Mike Francesa. Make no mistake about it: there are plenty of other strong options for the 2010 rotation, available via free agency and trade. One name that the Mets would be wise to make a strong play for is Ben Sheets.

Sheets is the best of the crop of talented, injury prone pitchers which includes Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. He missed all of 2009 because of flexor tendon surgery and has a history of other assorted ailments. When healthy, he's one of the best in the game. Hopefully the Mets' reported preliminary interest in Sheets turns into strong pursuit, and soon. The rare blend of strikeout ability and control he provides (career K/BB of 3.85) is preferable to the fielding dependent stylings of Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro, especially considering the iffy Mets infield defense and presence of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese.

According to ESPN, Sheets is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million a season. That seems a bit excessive but I would endorse a deal similar to Harden's with a small bump because Sheets is slightly better. Maybe a one year deal for $9 million with an option around $12 million? If signed, he could realistically be a 2.5-3 win pitcher, even in ~140 innings. It would be wise to limit him to 25 starts or so to ensure health as well. Pairing Sheets up with someone more reliable would be prudent, and some of the available pitchers worth looking at are as follows:

Aaron Harang - My top choice to pair with Sheets. He can probably be had for less than he's worth, has a strong strikeout rate and is an overall above average pitcher. Just don't let Jerry Manuel use him on two days rest for four innings of relief. The home run problem might be alleviated if he escapes Great American Ballpark.
Derek Lowe - The contract might become an albatross but if the Braves kick in some money he would be a decent addition. Similar skill set to Marquis and Pineiro, albeit more dependable.
John Smoltz - Calling a 42 year-old with injury problems reliable is a big stretch but if Sheets isn't signed "Schmoltz" (per Ron Darling) is worth a look. His peripherals and velocity were there in 2009 and despite his status as long-time Brave he is a personal favorite. Every pitch he throws looks like an angry haymaker thrown at the batter. I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.
Doug Davis - An under the radar type whose numbers might surprise. Yes, he gets hit hard but considering his age and lack of brand name he could be a nice bargain on a cheap one year deal to fill out the back of the rotation.

See robcast23's Big Book Of Available Pitchers post for more on Sheets and the pitchers listed above.

Mets should provide stepping stone for bounceback

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:45:10 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

The Mets might actually be better off if all their players just fell asleep. At least then, no one would get hurt.

Browse more photos »

"Redemption can be found in hell itself if that's where you happen to be." --LIN JENSEN, Bad Dog!

Okay, so we're not exactly in hell, though some of us may have felt like it after losing five straight. Whatever low funk the Rockies are in though, it is time for redemption. The Rockies ought to be really mad. Last week was terrible and Colorado is primed to take out their frustrations on a lowly opponent. It doesn't help the Mets' sake that they embarrassed the Rockies in July. It's payback time, doubletime.

Since the Mets won that series six weeks ago, New York has come crashing to earth. That series against the Rockies marks the last time the Mets won three games in a row or even won a series. They have lost 9 of 11 and just finished a 10-19 August.

Their season has been nothing short of a tire fire. They ought to bench their first baseman, because his Law has completely governed their season. The rotation has entireely fallen apart - Nelson Figueroa and reliever Pedro Feliciano led the team with two August wins, and Jerry Manuel saw three left-handed starters (Niese, Perez and Santana, all of whom pitched against the Rockies last time) go down for the rest of the season with injuries. Overall, thirteen players are on the disabled list today, more than the Rockies have had all season.

Only four teams have more road losses than the "Amazin's," and since taking a series at Fenway in May, New York has lost 10 of 11 road series. Amazin Avenue had a well-recieved fanpost last Thursday begging Omar Minaya to replace the guy they were using as their cleanup hitter with Matt Murton. Man, this is brutal. I won't continue. It hurts.

Quite frankly, losing this series would be embarrassing. We need a sweep.

Check out Amazin Avenue if you want to see hurting Mets fans. I almost feel bad for them.

New York Mets (59-72, W2, 4th, 17.5 GB Div)

Tuesday-Thursday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: D

One might think that a lineup riddled with injuries and replacement players would experience great turnover. However, Jerry Manuel's lineup looks very much the same as it did when we last saw them - the only change is an underwhelming one in the 8-hole/shortstop. Francouer and Hernandez are both performing two levels higher with the Mets than their previous clubs, but it's not enough to make the lineup fierce. Wright should come off the DL in time for tonight's game - if not, Fernando Tatis will be starting at third.

The Mets' .321 team wOBA ranks 6th worst in the NL, not surprisingly placing them sixth from the bottom in runs scored. You won't see this team swinging for the fences - they rank dead last in HR in MLB with 76, a whole 18 less than the 29th ranked Giants. New York also has accumulated the lowest number of strikeouts in the league, helping them lead the NL in BB/K. They are largely a dink and dunk team. Basically, throw the ball over the plate - they can't hurt you too badly.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Angel Pagan - CF	.294	6	26	.340	.489	.352
Luis Castillo - 2B	.312	1	34	.402	.362	.348
David Wright - 3B	.324	8	55	.414	.467	.387
Daniel Murphy - 1B	.260	7	46	.315	.390	.307
Jeff Francoeur - RF	.271	11	64	.300	.406	.301
Cory Sullivan - LF	.258	0	9	.320	.360	.311
Brian Schneider - C	.189	3	24	.272	.318	.304
Anderson Hernandez - SS	.258	1	30	.319	.332	.288

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber player (Wright), two solidly above average hitters (Pagan and Castillo), four very below average hitters (Murphy, Francoeur, Sullivan and Schneider), and one flat terrible hitter (Hernandez). Just like last time, I can say the only legitimate threats are the top three in the lineup, but we know how much that can mean sometimes.

Jeremy Reed (.244, 0, 7), Nick Evans (.229, 1, 6) and Gary Sheffield (.279, 10, 43) are the backup outfielders while Fernando Tatis (.263, 7, 36) can play IF and OF. Wilson Valdez (.244, 0, 4) is on the bench as an IF, and Omir Santos (.267, 6, 37) is the platoon catcher. Rookie catcher Josh Thole got a callup today. Wright still needs to be activated from the DL if he is to play in tonight's game, though he will.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: D-

Rotation: This isn't how Omar Minaya pictured his rotation in September. There's no reason why a New York team should be playing a series with Mike Pelfrey (ERA+ of 88) as their best starter. Redding and Misch have been given up on as starters by poor teams and have been forced into the rotation based on injuries to Johan Santana and Oliver Perez. Basically, the 4th worst NL rotation by ERA got worse. Every member of the current rotation is below MLB average, and their season tRA is a troubling 5.14.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Francisco Rodriguez	3-4	58	0	0	0	28	5	59.0	43	25	20	6	33	61	3.05	1.29

Bullpen: K-Rod is fine as the closer, but there's no real help otherwise. Manuel still has two lefties in the bullpen with Pedro Feliciano and Ken Takahashi. Joining closer Francisco Rodriguez are righties Sean Green, Elmer Dessens, Lance Broadway and Brian Stokes. Feliciano, Green and K-Rod are worth worrying about, but the others are not.

The D: D-

New York has made 80 errors, good for 10th-most in MLB. However, by UZR, they have the worst range in the majors, which fangraphs takes into account to claim the Mets are MLB's worst defense. There might be some UZR issues at Citi Field though, as Wright, Castillo and Sullivan are all listed as below average defenders. Pertinent for any Coors series, CF Angel Pagan is listed as the only positive fielder.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Mike Pelfrey 9-9 25 25 0 0 0 0 146.1 167 84 78 10 55 84 4.80 1.52

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Mike Pelfrey	9-9	25	25	0	0	0	0	146.1	167	84	78	10	55	84	4.80	1.52

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	12-9	26	25	0	0	0	0	148.2	148	82	78	19	62	152	4.72	1.41

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jorge De La Rosa 12-9 26 25 0 0 0 0 148.2 148 82 78 19 62 152 4.72 1.41

Pelfrey has only two starts in 25 this season where he was not scored upon, and one came against the Rockies in July. Since that game, he has gone 1-3 with a 5.10 ERA. He has a very poor 1.53 K/BB rate, which plays right into the Rockies' hands if they remain patient. The big difference from 2008 is Pelfrey's fastball, which has dropped from a stout 21.9 rating to -5.9 this year. Jorge de la Rosa has a dizzying streak of 18 straight starts that he's earned a decision in, having lost in his last start for just the second time in 12 outings. He has scuffled a bit lately but remains the better pitcher in the matchup hands down. Still, if the Mets hope to win a game in the series, this one is the most likely. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Wednesday, September 2, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Tim Redding 2-4 24 11 0 0 0 0 83.1 93 58 55 14 36 54 5.94 1.55

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Redding	2-4	24	11	0	0	0	0	83.1	93	58	55	14	36	54	5.94	1.55

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	12-10	27	27	1	0	0	0	181.1	153	69	67	10	69	158	3.33	1.22

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez 12-10 27 27 1 0 0 0 181.1 153 69 67 10 69 158 3.33 1.22

After losing his rotation slot in July after four bad starts, Redding is back thanks to injuries to his teammates. This will be his third start since returning, and he allowed just 3 runs on 6 hits in 11.1 IP in the first two starts. However, he gives up plenty of home runs, has a worse K/BB than Pelfrey, and has a season FIP and tRA in the 5's to support that ERA - he's having a bad year. Ubaldo Jimenez keeps building on the franchise record of 6+ IP starts. He threw 8.0 IP in four of his six starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in all six games. The Rockies' only loss in those starts was to Lincecum last Friday. As long as U-ball doesn't pull a Letdown After the Timmy Showdown, this is a no-brainer. Favors: ROCKIES extremely strongly

Thursday, September 3, 1:10 pm MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Pat Misch 0-1 20 1 0 0 0 1 29.0 30 11 11 1 15 15 3.41 1.55

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Pat Misch	0-1	20	1	0	0	0	1	29.0	30	11	11	1	15	15	3.41	1.55

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	14-9	29	26	2	1	0	0	177.1	172	77	71	12	55	86	3.60	1.28

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jason Marquis 14-9 29 26 2 1 0 0 177.1 172 77 71 12 55 86 3.60 1.28

Misch, a former Giant, will be making his second start of the season. He did decently in the bullpen and allowed 1 ER in 7 innings at Wrigley Field in his first start, but I'd be remiss not to note he was facing the Cubs. He has very poor K and BB rates, albeit in a fairly small sample. The lefty's slider and fastball come in at about the same speed, but his stuff won't overpower you. Marquis is coming off his worst start since June at the Angels but allowed 2 ER over 17.0 IP in his last two starts at Coors Field. He has the chance to pull within one win of the NL lead in wins with Adam Wainright. Favors: ROCKIES strongly

My take

On paper, this series should be a sweep clincher on par with both Nationals series. Of course, actually pulling off a sweep is tricky business, and if good Pelfrey shows up tonight, we could have issues. Otherwise, this is a prime opportunity to take a stranglehold on the wild card again with the Giants in Philly. I would panic more from losing this series than having been swept by the Giants, and even winning just two games would leave a bit of an empty feeling. Go kill some Mets, please.

Luis Castillo, David Wright, Fernando Tatis, Angel Pagan, and Jeff Francoeur each hit over .300 with an .800+ OPS in August. Pagan hit all six of his home runs this season in the month, while Francoeur had 3 bombs and 10 doubles himself. K-Rod blew two straight saves in early August, permitting 7 ER in 1.0 IP over the two appearances, yet he has converted 4 straight opportunities and has 5 straight scoreless appearances.

Brian Schneider had only 4 singles, 3 doubles, one walk and 11 Ks in 48 August PAs. Gary Sheffield hasn't homered since June 28 and had a .670 OPS in August. Jeremy Reed has only 6 TB's in his last 28 ABs.

The Mets injury list is dizzying:

New York Mets Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Carlos Delgado	hip	05/11/2009
Jose Reyes	hamstring	05/21/2009
John Maine	shoulder	06/07/2009
Carlos Beltran	knee	06/22/2009
Fernando Martinez	knee	07/04/2009
Fernando Nieve	thigh	07/20/2009
David Wright	concussion	08/16/2009
Johan Santana	elbow	08/21/2009
Oliver Perez	knee	08/24/2009
Alex Cora	thumb	08/13/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Ramon Martinez	fingers	06/03/2009
Jonathon Niese	hamstring	08/06/2009
J.J. Putz	elbow	06/05/2009

Poll

Just how bad ARE the Mets?

They are really terrible. They're worse than the Nationals. Easy sweep.

47 votes

They are really terrible, but they will manage to win one game in the series.

73 votes

They are really terrible, but the Rockies suck right now, and we'll lose this series.

22 votes

They are really terrible, but the Rockies iz doomd to b swept.

8 votes

150 votes | Poll has closed

Notorious F.I.G.: Mets 9, Cardinals 0

Eric Simon — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 21:16:00 -0000

Jon Niese started this afternoon's game and, after being staked to an early lead on a David Wright two-run homer in the bottom of the first, left after straining his right hamstring chasing a grounder in the second inning. He was replaced by Nelson Figueroa, who just two days ago turned in one of the worst pitching performances in recent memory, allowing six runs on ten hits in just 1.2 innings. Suffice it to say that things were looking bad early today. Figueroa's first batter was opposing pitcher Kyle Lohse, who was disposed of with little trouble. Figueroa came to the plate in the bottom of the second inning with two runners on and rocked a triple to center, scoring Brian Schneider and Angel Berroa to give the Mets a 4-0 lead.

Figueroa allowed just four hits and struck out five in 4.1 scoreless innings of relief, which is good for the Mets because he might be seeing a bit more action if Niese is going to miss any considerable amount of time. Bobby Parnell replaced Figueroa and tossed three scoreless innings for the "save", allowing just one hit and striking out three.

Wright's homerun was his eighth of the season, which might be more like 14 or 16 were Citi Field's dimensions a tad more forgiving. He went 3-for-4 on the day with a walk and has his on-base percentage up to .420 and his slugging up to .477. Angel Pagan picked up three more hits, including his seventh triple of the season. In the biggest news of the day, Jeff Francoeur went 2-for-3 and drew his first unintentional walk as a Met, which means the counter starts over at 0.

The Mets head for PETCO Park to begin a four-game series with the Padres tomorrow night.

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Viva El Birdos Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: David Wright, +17.4% WPA, Nelson Figueroa, +15.1% WPA
Big losers: Alex Cora, -4.3% WPA, Angel Berroa, -3.6% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Wright two-run homerun in first, +16.4% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Lugo double in fifth, -4.5% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +21.0% WPA
Total batter WPA: +29.0% WPA
GWRBI!: David Wright

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by blueandorange4life; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	blueandorange4life	80
2	Jadden Hopkins	54
3	Abstract NYC	40
4	fxcarden	37
5	Michkin	36
6	Pat Andriola	33
7	Prince	32
8	itsmetsforme	25
9	Steeeve	23
10	twon8	15

Jon Niese's Strike Rates

Eric Simon — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

"I'm throwing strikes, now give me a nickname!". (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

Browse more photos »

Just a quick look at Jonathon Niese's strike distribution by pitch type. We're dealing with extremely small sample sizes here so it's probably not appropriate to draw any meaningful conclusions, but it's all we've got to work with so far. Niese throws a four-seam fastball (FF) a looping curve (CU), a changeup (CH), a cut-fastball (FC, which PITCHf/x mis-idenfities as a slider), and a two-seam fastball (FT). As a reminder, SwStr% is swinging strike rate, or the ratio of swinging strikes to total pitches thrown. ClStr% is called strike rate, or the ratio of called strikes to total pitches thrown. Averages for starting pitchers are included in the column labeled "League".

	FF	CU	FC	FT	CH	All	League
# Pitches	243	62	37	20	12	374	--
SwStr%	8.60%	6.50%	5.40%	0%	8.30%	8.00%	7.80%
ClStr%	19.30%	12.90%	13.50%	10%	8.30%	16.80%	17.10%

Niese is just above the league average in swinging strike rate, which is a good indicator of overall strikeout rate and general pitch dominance. The ability to miss bats is necessarily a good thing. Niese is just below the league average in called strike rate, which isn't terribly surprising; control and command are tools that arrive late for a lot of pitchers, and you'll notice that Niese's ClStr% on curveballs is well below the league; it's a feel pitch and consistent control will come with experience.

Niese's cut-fastball, which comes in a bit slower than his four-seamer and a touch faster than his two-seamer, is still a work-in-progress. He's not getting enough strikes on it in either of the swinging or called varieties, but, again, we don't have a lot of data to work with here. That his overall rates are near the league averages is encouraging given his age and limited big league resume. Good stuff so far from the guy who still needs a nickname.

Rockies 0, Mets 0: Tonight's game postponed; doubleheader tomorrow.

theoldgrizzlybear — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 23:42:33 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

Nothing to see here, folks.

Browse more photos »

A premature decision? Maybe, but one thing I'm definitely not is a meteorologist.

Tomorrow: Jorge De La Rosa vs. Jonathon Niese. First pitch at 10:10 AM MT. I love morning games, and looking on the bright side of things, at least Todd Helton gets another day off so he can (hopefully) be a beast tomorrow like he always is in games following an off-day.

54 - 46

Games Back: 8

Wildcard: 0.5 GB of SF

Streak: Lost 2

Games Left: 62

Rox need to dispose of battered, bruised, dying Mets

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:09:20 -0000

2-18.

Let that sink in a little bit. 2-18. That's more futility than the Nationals can muster anywhere, yet that's the Rockies' record visiting the Mets over the past six seasons. Just two measly wins. Last year was the height of it, where a Brad Hawpe solo home run was the lone run Colorado managed in the entire series. That is carnage right there. So ask me if I'm scared.

I'm not. Well, not really. That futile road record does give me pause, and it means a 4-game sweep will be incredibly difficult, but a series win shouldn't be ignored. There are five reasons to ignore the road record. 1) This ain't Shea Stadium anymore. Citi Field may treat the Rox better. 2) Colorado actually has the pitching advantage in the series, meaning we don't need to rely on the offense to crank it up as much on the road. 3) This Rockies team is a lot better than 5 of the 6 teams that contributed to that 2-18 mark, and arguably better than the 2007 NL Pennant team. 4) This may be the best road team the Rockies have ever had, both by personnel and results. And 5) We're not actually facing the Mets. Not really.

The only example of carnage in baseball that's more painful than the Nationals or Rox woes at Shea is the carnage in the Mets' training room. It has gotten so ridiculous, it's almost sadly comical - see right. Jerry Manuel has lost arguably his best starting outfield (not just outfielder), half his infield, his #2 starting pitcher and two critical bullpen cogs.

As much as I would love to revel in the 6.5 games the Rockies have buried the Mets since the curse of Kruk, I almost feel sorry for the Mets. It's better to be lucky than good sometimes, and that right there could be the biggest difference between the two teams.

Whereas New York has ten men on the DL right now, the Rox have placed only 5 7 main contributors all season, if memory serves - Taylor Buchholz, Alan Embree, Manuel Corpas, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Francis, Matt Daley and Franklin Morales. Luck may play a part of it, but however you slice it, the Rockies will be the far superior team at Citi Field this series.

The Mets are coming off two consecutive victories at Houston for their first series win of the second half. They have been in a freefall since June 25, just after Beltran went down, and just after the Curse of Kruk. Since that date, the Mets are 9-17. Despite some false hope for legitimizing a playoff run from some Mets fans, New York sits 7.5 behind the Rockies in the wild card, 10.5 behind the Phillies in the NL East. It's time to pack it in. And remember plenty of gauze.

The Mets are 25-20 at home, while the Rockies' 27-23 road mark is not far off that pace. Given that the Mets have the fourth worst run differential in the league, and it's only gotten worse since key injuries, it is reasonable to argue this team is among the worst in the National League, just one tier above San Diego and Washington.

Check out Amazin Avenue to see how many fans are in denial.

New York Mets (46-51, W2, 4th, 7.5 GB WC, 10.5 GB Div)

Monday-Thursday: 4-game series at Citi Field

The Bats: D+

It is my pleasure to introduce the most punchless offense in the majors. With just 57 home runs (we have 113), New York checks in with the least power in the bigs. Their .388 SLG is only better than the threeuniversally regarded weakest MLB offenses - San Diego, San Friancisco and Oakland. However, their .323 wOBA beats out 11 teams on the strength of a respectable .340 OBP, which is one point below the Rox.

Fangraphs ranks them 20th in offense, but with the stopgaps in the lineup now, their clout takes a severe hit. Jerry Manuel has used 24 batters this season to the Rockies' 16. He must grit his teeth every time he's filling out the lineup card:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Angel Pagan - CF	.309	0	6	.362	.443	.366
Luis Castillo - 2B	.301	0	24	.398	.358	.344
David Wright - 3B	.318	6	48	.409	.456	.380
Daniel Murphy - 1B	.243	5	32	.308	.357	.294
Jeff Francoeur - RF	.261	7	59	.288	.371	.286
Cory Sullivan - LF	.214	0	1	.267	.214	.242
Brian Schneider - C	.212	3	20	.316	.374	.304
Alex Cora - SS	.242	0	12	.320	.293	.285

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber player (Wright), two solidly above average hitters (Pagan and Castillo), one very below average hitter (Schnieder), and four absolute terrible hitters (Murphy, Francoeur, Sullivan and Cora). Outside of the top three in the order, there is no legitimate threat in the lineup. Their clean-up hitter has a worse SLG and wOBA than Carlos Gonzalez! And Cory freaking Sullivan is hitting sixth...

Jeremy Reed of San Dimas, CA (.264, 0, 7) is the backup outfielder, while Fernando Tatis (.239, 4, 20) can play IF and OF. Angel Berroa (1-for-12) is on the bench as an IF, and Omir Santos (.271, 6, 27) is the platoon catcher.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: D

This is probably the first time ever that the Mets have faced the Rockies with a higher staff ERA. They are 16th in MLB with a 4.34 mark. Their rotation ERA/FIP/tRA splits are 4.68/4.47/5.06, and for the bullpen: 3.69/4.23/4.62. They are prety much below average across the board. Johan Santana is fine, but the rest of the rotation is filled with castoffs, unproven youth and just bad pitchers. K-Rod is fine as the closer, but there's no real help otherwise. They are basically a two man staff.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Francisco Rodriguez	2-2	2.17	1.23	47	25

By fangraphs values, the Mets' staff is ranked 23rd in overall value, 24th in the rotation and 22nd in the bullpen.

Jerry Manual's lefties are Pedro Feliciano and Pat Misch. Joining closer Francisco Rodriguez are uninspiring righties Sean Green, Elmer Dessens, Bobby Parnell, Tim Redding, and Brian Stokes.

The D: D

New York has made 62 errors, good for 11th in MLB. However, by UZR, they have the worst range in the majors, which fangraphs takes into account to claim the Mets are MLB's 2nd worst defense. David Wright has apparently cost the team the most runs defensively, while Angel Pagan is the only above average fielder. Apparently. Sullivan/Reed is a large defensive upgrade over Sheffield in left.

The Ballpark: Neutral

Citi Field has gotten a reputation as a pitchers' park, largely due to David Wright's pathetic total of 3 home dingers. A quick glance though shows the park to be pretty neutral. Baseball Reference gives it a flat 100 neutral rating for hitters, a 99 for pitchers. It is tied for 7th in ESPN's park factor in stifling offense, but also has the 12th highest HR factor, ahead of Coors Field. Blasphemy.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 5:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	7-9	3.85	1.30	116	52

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Oliver Perez	2-3	7.68	2.04	32	38

Ubaldo may be the only Rockies' starter below .500, but no one is confusing him for a week link. Oliver Perez has made only two quality starts all year and has otherwise been a time bomb. That K/BB rate is atrocious - in fact, it is worse than every pitcher in MLB except Dontrelle Willis and Daniel Cabrera. This game favors the Rockies in ridiculous fashion. To wit: they are a -159 moneyline bet, despite being on the road at a New York team. Favors: ROCKIES Very strongly

Tuesday, July 25, 5:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Marquis	12-6	3.49	1.26	61	40

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Mike Pelfrey	7-6	4.99	1.49	56	39

Pelfrey has been good vs the Rox in his career, especially in his strong start in 2008 at Shea. However, he's been unimpressive this season, especially after a good May. His ERA was over 5.90 in June and July, and the Mets have lost 7 of his last 10 starts. He faces the ultimate winner, who should be good to go after blister issues. Favors: ROCKIES moderately strongly

Wednesday, July 29, 5:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	5-5	4.28	1.45	70	25

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Johan Santana	11-8	3.12	1.25	120	42

The Rockies win the series if they win this game. It's the only pitching matchup that favors the Mets, and even then it's not as stark of a difference as initially surmised. Hammel has an road ERA of 1.93 that is competitive with Santana's 1.83 at Citi Field. Jason Hammel's season FIP of 3.82 actually edges out Santana's 3.83. Then compare the offenses they have to face, and the game may be more competitive than advertised. The Mets have only won 4 of Santana's last 10 starts, he had a 6.19 ERA in June and is coming off a 12-hit barage at Houston, including a home run by the pitcher. This one is doable, people. Favors: METS moderately

Thursday, July 30, 10:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	8-7	4.78	1.37	112	47

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jonathon Niese	1-0	4.08	1.25	13	4

Jorge is on some kind of roll, winning 8 of 9 decisions, including winning his last six starts, a franchise record. His FIP/tRA are a stellar 3.70/3.66. He'll face Niese, a young lefty, who was impressive Saturday in his first start since his callup. The Rockies are 15-14 vs lefties and haven't had trouble with young pitchers lately, so the old MO there is dissolving. The 2005 7th rounder was a Little League and high school teammate of Chad Billingsley. He was 5-6 with a 3.82 ERA in AAA before his callup. He throws a fastball in the upper 80's, compliments it with a ~88mph cutter, freqently mixes in a soft curve and has a changeup as well. It's a difficult game to handicap not seeing much of Niese at the MLB level, but the way DLR has been dealing in addition to the rather large offensive gap between the teams...Favors: ROCKIES moderately

My take

If the Rockies win Wednesday, it will be difficult to lose the series. It will also be nearly impossible with a loss tonight. The Rockies' record at New York in years past is worrying enough, but winning 4 game series on the road as a rule is difficult, especially when Johan Santana is on the queue. I would take a 2-2 split of the series, but we're all hoping for a series win.

Luis Castillo is OPSing north of 1.000 since the ASB, nearly getting on base half the time. Angel Pagan nis hitting .310 with 2 2B's and 3 3Bs in the same span. Jeff Francouer is hitting .327 with a .337 wOBA and 2 HRs since joining the Mets.

Francisco Rodriguez has been scored upon in 5 of his last 8 outings, giving up 3 HR in that span. Daniel Murphy is just 8-for-38 since the break, while Cory Sullivan, Alex Cora, Fernando Tatis, Jeremy Reed and Brian Scheider join him in hitting under .215 since July 15.

Gary Sheffield just joined 7 other teammates on the 15-day DL. The left-fielder was placed on the DL with a hamstring strain, retroactively to July 18. Joining him in the infirmary are Carlos Delgado (hip - 5/11), Jose Reyes (hamstring - 5/21), John Maine (shoulder - 6/7), Carlos Beltran (knee - 6/22) , Fernando Martinez (knee - 7/4), J.J. Putz (elbow - 6/5), and Fernando Nieve (thigh - 7/20). Ramon Martinez was moved to the 60day DL with a finger injury on June 3, joining Billy Wagner, who has been sidelined with an elbow injury since the beginning of the season.

I did an interview with Kerel Cooper from On The Black, a Mets video blog. Check out the interview here if you're interested in hearing me as a blubbering buffoon.

Poll

What state of mind do you have going to New York?

Extremely confident: Past history is irrelevant. We'll crush the battered Mets, and not even ESPN can tout them as playoff threats when they are 10.5 games out of the WC chase.

35 votes

Confident and excited: sweeping 4 game road series is very very hard. See San Diego 10 days ago. But we are by far the better team, and I like the pitching matchups

115 votes

Unsure: Matching six years' worth of wins in New York seems like a feat in itself. Winning 4 game road series are tough to boot. I'll take a split

41 votes

Scared: I hate when we play in New York. The Shea curse will travel to Citi Field, and we'll be in trouble.

21 votes

Utterly delusional, or a Mets fan, or both: ESPN told me the Metz IZ bettor. They sweep dem Rockiez, duh

7 votes

219 votes | Poll has closed

Jon Niese's Release Point(s)

Sam Page — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 10:00:10 -0000

There were certainly many positives to take from Jon Niese's start yesterday. He controlled a lineup of mostly free-swinging right-handers, getting 12 groundouts to 5 flyouts. Some radar guns clocked his fastball as high as 95 mph. So I apologize for focusing on the one concerning element of his start, but his release points seemed a little odd:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

At first glance, it just seems a little erratic, with contact coming mostly from the inner-portion of the lower grouping. Grouped by pitch, however, a pattern is clear:

He clearly releases the curveballs from a higher release point than his other two pitches, the fastball and what presumably is a cutter. That could be a problem farther down the line if other teams' scouts pick up on it. Last night, however, I don't think it was problem, as the cutter, the pitch most prone to contact, resulted in three groundballs, a strikeout, and a weak pop out.

Overall, I was happy to see our young groundball machine succeed, but the release point is something to watch for.

A Simple Request Regarding Niese

James Kannengieser — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 15:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Go get'em Jona-Fin

Browse more photos »

Jon Niese makes his return to the major leagues tonight, after dominating AAA since his May demotion to the tune of 71.2 IP, 57 K's, 18 BB's and a 3.01 ERA. He should never have been sent down, as the Mets Brainstorm likely based their decision on his 5.91 ERA rather than his 5.0 K/BB and 50% GB% (in a small sample of just 10.2 innings pitched). Why Niese was allowed just 1 poor start while other inferior pitchers were allowed 3 before risk of demotion is perplexing. Regardless, he is back now and my request for the Brainstorm is simple: leave him up for the rest of the season. Don't be frightened by his inevitable blow-up start(s) - he is certainly the 3rd best, and maybe the 2nd best, starting pitcher on the roster. Give him 12 starts to finish the season; give him the chance to fail.

Fortunately this is a request I think will be heeded because there just aren't enough active arms in this organization to go around. John Maine is probably done for the year; ditto Fernando Nieve. The ideal situation would also include dropping Livan Hernandez from the rotation and a call-up of Nelson Figueroa. It wouldn't be a drastic, season changing improvement. However, if given the choice between a 34(?) year-old glorified batting practice pitcher who has lucked his way to a few WINZZ against the Nationals or a 35 year-old AAA All-Star who would likely perform slightly below league average, I'll take the latter.

Free Jon Niese. NOW.

Sam Page — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:53:09 -0000

The results of Livan Hernandez's performance are below. In bold are all the outs Livan Hernandez's pitching contributed to in any way.

Double
Single
Single
Linedrive, caught
Walk
Strikeout
Double, baserunning out
Single
Sacrifice Bunt
Pick-Off
Single
Walk
Single
Single
Deep Flyout to center
Linedrive, caught
Groundout
Single
Groundout (their pitcher)
Double
Strikeout
Walk
Linedrive, caught
Single, baserunning out

That's an out per inning! Go Livan!

Some Myths Surrounding These Mets

Sam Page — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:00:18 -0000

Sean Green is bad or "the new Heilman": Green's 4.33 tRA is basically the same as Stokes' or Takahashi's and is above average. He's getting 56.2% GB, which isn't his usual absurd number, but is still great. His strikeout and walk % are in line with his career norms. The difference? He gave up 3 homers, the same number he gave up in all of 80 innings last year. The homeruns, coupled with some early struggles with command, made a few bad outings look like a breakdown. His ERA last year was already betrayed by the Mariners' terrible up-the-middle infield, making him underrated before the season. He can pitch the same way he has for the past two years and easily finish the year with an ERA <4.

J.J. Putz was good, then got hurt: J.J. Putz was damaged goods all year. No pitcher succeeds with 1 K:BB ratio. He just got exposed in his last three outings and finally accepted an injury that was already there.

David Wright "changed his game" to be more speed than power: Wright's hitting the exact same number of line drives, groundballs, and flyballs he's hit his entire career. His 5.3% HR/FB is probably just a combination of bad luck and Citi Field. His 417.7 average homerun distance is actually up from last year (obviously sample size disclaimer). Maybe he's faster but with 8 CS, I doubt he's sustainable .462 BABIP fast.

Brian Stokes gets skipped over for lesser relievers: I've been guilty of this sentiment, but tRA suggests he's been just as good as Green in nearly the same number of innings. I still feel there were plenty of situations where he should have been brought in instead of Putz, and if he can improve his K% that tRA will be much prettier.

Jeremy Reed is a good defensive replacement in the outfield: Reed has a -1.4 UZR so far this season for the Mets. While I'd like to dismiss that as the insignificant sample size it is, he's -4.2 on his career, mainly due to his Juan Pierre-esque arm. Congrats Jeremy, you're a rangy corner outfielder with no arm, no bat, and -.2 WAR, again. At least he's consistent.

Jon Niese has been a bust so far in AAA: Covered here. He's done nothing since then to prove me right, but his season numbers in Buffalo to date only suggest it's impossible to pitch well on that godforsaken team, not that he's pitched poorly.

Omir Santos

David Wright has been streaky this year: Sure, but anymore so than usual? Or any other player for that matter? His OBP hasn't dropped below .371. You be the judge:

via www.fangraphs.com

The Mets had good depth, but got unlucky with injuries: You really expect them to have a good third-string shortstop??? Sort of. Not good, but better than Ramon Martinez. For some, the quality of your AAA team is indicative of the quality of the Major League Team. Although that's four kinds of nuts, the Mets certainly have demonstrated it helps not to have a total bunch of scrubs on the farm, both for depth, and so you don't ruin two prospects who were considered to make the team out of spring training. Also, depth isn't just the back-up guys, it's also the people you trust from the beginning. Daniel Murphy was prematurely removed from the outfield after "the experiment failed" and Ryan Church got another injury. It's not that the Mets haven't just had bad backups the past two years, it's that they haven't had good complimentary type starters in the first place. Daniel Murphy is the kind of tweener you keep on your bench because he can fill multiple roles with the inevitable injury to the 38 year-old firstbaseman happens. Moises Alou. Luis Castillo. Manderson. Wow, trade for Adam Dunn because he's a power hitting outfielder who can fill in for Delgado? Great idea! Where have I heard that before?

HAHA I WAS RIGHT! Oliver Perez stinks!: Oliver Perez has become a great I-told-you-so moment for many of us, but that's gotten old, and we all have to accept he's with the team for another couple of years. Yes, it was stupid move. Minaya essentially gambled the whole rotation on the hope a historically erratic pitcher would repeat his 2007 season. Still, just as so many Mets fans decided he was once good, too soon have they condemned the contract as a failure. Oliver Perez was good as lately as two years ago, and he wasn't terrible last year. He's immensely talented and this year's version of Oliver Perez clearly isn't right, even for his standards. The velocity drop suggests something's physically wrong, whether it be injury, or conditioning, or whatever. There's still a chance he could come back and be decent, maybe even good. If he's right, the Mets shouldn't be pressured in keeping him out of the rotation for Redding or whoever. I own an Oliver Perez jersey.

John Maine's been good, not great: He's been bad, and I'm worried. He peripherals rank near the bottom of all eligible starting pitchers. He's not getting hitters to chase. I know he's coming off injury, and that I urged patience with him earlier, but the improvements since April have been modest, if existent at all. 6.09 tRA. Just sayin'.

Murphy's good. No maybe he's bad: or maybe he's just neither. His unlucky BABIP suggests he's not this bad, but he may not be the hitting machine. Lets this one play out.

The Mets need to focus on building for next year: There's plenty of time left, so I don't agree with all the doomsaying anyway. Still, this sentiment makes no sense. What do these people want Minaya to do, trade veterans? He'd be fired for giving up. And who's left to trade? Church? I can't imagine that would be much more than a lateral move, as low as his value is. If building for next year means committing to prospects, then the one ML-ready prospect is already playing. Gee and Niese will have to wait for Fatty to be full. Anything else would just be needlessly rushing a player.