SB Nation - Shawn Camp

Won't You Please Let Me Go: Arbitration for Eligible Jays?

hugo — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 18:38:02 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

I'm not ready to let Jeremy Accardo walk away just yet (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

Following up on Tom's post, I figured I'd take a break from my too-long hiatus to put up my views on the arbitration-eligible Jays.

I don't see the point in offering Shawn Camp arbitration. He pitched well for the team last year but there are cheaper alternatives that have more upside. And he's not even a FA after 2010, as far as I know, so there's not really a reason to keep him around for the draft pick (assuming you think he could get there) either.

Jeremy Accardo, I would offer a contract. Obviously Cito doesn't like him, but he has talent and would be a mainstay in a number of MLB bullpens. I would try to trade him. If they can't get anything useful back, I'd see if he can make the big-league bullpen out of spring, which I think he can. If he doesn't make the team, I'd release him then out of fairness to Jeremy or trade him for whatever is out there. Cito might be what we call testa dura, but he does change his mind about players sometimes and an improved attitude (and, more importantly, improved control) on Jeremy's part could give him a new lease on his Jays career.

Jose Bautista has to be non-tendered, in my view. Even if the Jays want to keep him, I think they can non-tender him and retain him for less money. $4 million is way too much for a utility player (which is what he better be) on a non-contending team. I don't see a lot of teams knocking down the door to snatch him up and if someone wants to give him a starting job, more power to him.

Raul Chavez, I'm not sure it matters one way or the other but he did a nice job last season. I'm not a fan of what I consider to be over-catching, but the pitchers didn't seem to mind.

Casey Janssen and Dustin McGowan, I think you absolutely have to offer deals. Neither is going to cost much more than the minimum and while there are huge long-term concerns for both (McGowan if he'll ever pitch again, Janssen if he'll ever be as good as he was), they do both have proven major league success and when you have the chance to get that for close to the minimum, you take it.

Shaun Marcum, Jason Frasor, and Brandon League to me are no-brainers, as is Brian Tallet. Tallet is right on the bubble of being a Type B free agent in 2010, is a useful lefty out of the pen, and shouldn't be too expensive.

Today's title from the incredible song "Age of Consent" by New Order, one of my favorite winter bands.
Stay warm.

Goodbye, Goodnight: Orioles 5, Jays 4

hugo — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:04:00 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero delivers against the Baltimore Orioles in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Jays' season came sputtering to a close this afternoon with a series sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. Today's game was an extra-inning affair the Jays lost in the bottom of the 11th.

On the Mound: Ricky Romero pitched pretty well for the Jays, though he gave up 4 runs. Three walks in 7 innings hurt him, but he struck out 8 and only gave up 5 hits (one of which was a 2-run home run by Nick Markakis). The long ball has been a thorn in Romero's side all season and will surely be something he works on next year.

At the Plate: Edwin Encarnacion hit another home run, which was encouraging. Edwin had a very good close to the season, batting .261/.343/.500 from September 1st on. If his wrist issues are behind him, he could have a good season at the plate next year. Jose Bautista and John McDonald also hit solo shots, and Travis Snider added an RBI double. Randy Ruiz had 2 doubles, a single, and a walk for a nice afternoon at the office. Vernon Wells had one of those days, going 0-5 and leaving a lot of men on base before Joe Inglett took his spot in the lineup to give him a bit of an early end to the season.

From the Pen: Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp combined to hold the line for three innings, giving the Jays the chance to tie it at four on J-Mac's home run in the 7th, but Brandon League had some serious problems in the 11th, giving up a leadoff single and then throwing two away in a row and allowing the run to score. His focus just wasn't there - understandable, I suppose, given the circumstances - he has had a ridiculously hard-luck season and likely just wanted it to be over. I'm going to go ahead and pencil him in for a big season next year.

The Jays finish the season at 75-87, pretty poor considering how hot they started. Their pythagorean record, however, was over .500 (83-79), showing that the Jays have been the victim of poor run distribution. Normally, I might say bad luck, but this is the third straight season that the Jays have underperformed their pythagorean record and particularly struggled to hit with runners in scoring position, so that really won't fly.

Downs Blows Lead in 8th, Jays Lose

jessef — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:32:03 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

I know Hideki Matsui's just doing his job, but why does he have to do it so well against the Jays? This was his sixth homerun and he hit .373 / .439 / .745 against us this season. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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Yankees 5 Blue Jays 4

Well, the Yankees took an early lead off Brian Tallet when they scored two runs in the first inning, off an RBI double by Mark Teixeira and an RBI single by Hideki Matsui. Vernon Wells doubled to lead off the second, but the Jays were unable to cash him. In the bottom of the second, Tallet took a grounder off his foot. He stayed with the ball, got the out at first and got a strikeout to end the inning. In the top of the third, the Jays came back to tie it up, thanks to a solo homerun from Jose Bautista and successive singles from Travis Snider and Marco Scutaro (an infield single off Yankees starter Chad Gaudin) and an Adam Lind RBI groundout. Shawn Camp came on to relieve Tallet due to injury concerns related to the grounder he took off the foot in the third and pitched three scoreless (indeed excellent) innings.

The Jays plated a run in the sixth off a Vernon Wells single, Lyle Overbay double and Rod Barajas RBI groundout, but were unable to add to the lead thanks to an intentional walk to Jose Bautista (I'm not making that up), which led to a Moonraker strikeout against Damaso Marte. Casey Janssen pitched an excellent sixth inning and the Jays added another run in the top of the seventh when Scoot doubled and Lind got him in with a sacrifice fly. Tek came back out for the seventh and ran into a bit of trouble when he gave up a single and Edwin Encarnacion made an error (albeit on a pretty tough play). However, Jeremy Accardo came in and got a quick strikeout, walked Derek Jeter and then induced a fly ball to left to escape the inning with the two-run lead still in tact. Tom requested that I do the recap and that's when things -- naturally -- fell apart. Cito went to Scott Downs for the eighth and before being removed with -- I think -- elbow tightness, he yielded a single to Alex Rodriguez and a game-tying dinger to Hideki Matsui. Jason Frasor closed out the eighth, but the Jays were unable to capitalize on a Moonraker bunt single in the top of the ninth and the score was tied at four going into the bottom of the ninth. Leading off the inning, Brett Gardner singled off Frasor on a full count and predictably stole second base. Derek Jeter grounded out to put Gardner on third and he scored when Francisco Cervelli (playing only because of Jorge Posada's suspension) drove him home with the game-winning single.

Jays of the Day: Camp (.185), Accardo (.159) and Overbay (.159). Honorable mentions to Scoot and Vernon, who had a single and double each, as well as Tek, who would have fared better, were it not for E5's error.

Towers goes to Tallet (-.110), though he may have fared better if he'd been able to stay in.

Batistas go to Snakeface (-.380) and Frasor (-.306).

Hinskes go to Lind (-.161, in spite of the two RBI) and E5 (-.138, plus the error) and Rod Barajas comes close (-.095).

Well, at least we don't have to watch anymore Yankees walk-off wins this year.

Once Again, Can We Petition Bud Selig to Shorten Games to Eight Innings?

jessef — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 22:31:36 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Marco Scutaro tries to explain to Aaron Hill how leverage index works. Even though Hill homered twice in the game and was worth two full batting runs above average, striking out with the bases drunk and behind by one in the bottom of the twelfth means you get the Hinske. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Jays lose another one-run game, this time in extra innings. Apparently, an 8-0 lead after five innings and a 9-0 lead after six is not enough. The Rays chipped away in the seventh with four runs, the eighth with two and eventually managed to tie up the game in the ninth with homeruns by Carlos Pena and Willy Aybar off Scott Downs.

The Rays plated the winning run in the top of the 12th against Shawn Camp (who was pitching his second inning) off a Jason Bartlett double. The Jays loaded the bases with one out for Aaron Hill in the bottom of the 12th, but he struck out. Adam Lind rolled over to end the game.

On the bright side, this does mean that the Jays did manage to plate nine runs in the first six innings, aided by four homers (two by Hill and one each from Rios and Bautista). Millar and Overbay combined for an 0-6, though Millar did pick up an RBI.

It's kind of hard to write about this one, I am still sort of reeling from this loss, so I'll cop out and just add the win-probability graph:

via www.fangraphs.com

Jays of the Day: Scutaro (.155), Rios (.130), Frasor (.143) and Tallet (.104 even though he yielded five runs over six innings because the Jays had already scored nine runs). Honorable mentiont to Bautista and League.

Hinske award goes to Lind (-.306), Hill (-.213 in spite of hitting two homers) and Overbay (-.106)

Batista award goes to Downs (-.279) and Shawn Camp (-.148, who took the loss)

By the way, guys, this isn't the best way to convince Doc that he should stay. Maybe we can pick up a win and avoid the sweep tomorrow when Brett Cecil takes the mound against Jeff Niemann.

Brett Cecil, Scott Downs, and the Jays Cruise Past Orioles, 2-0

hugo — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:53:57 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Brett Cecil had a great start, but it was also oh so nice to see Scott Downs back in the closer's role for the Jays as they shut out Baltimore, 2-0. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Jays got their Baltimore series off to a great start today with a 2-0 win against the Orioles, bringing your heroic azure corvids back to .500.

On the Mound:

Brett Cecil threw a very good 6 scoreless innings, rebounding from a rough one his last time out. Cecil, pitching in his home state of Maryland in front of his family and friends, took "Manly Deeds, Womanly Words" (the absurd state motto) to heart with 5 Ks and 2 walks, giving up just four singles. Cecil looked very good, generally keeping his fastball down and using his slider and change well. He got a strikeout on his curveball which was good to see.

At the Plate:

It was a quiet day for the Jays at the plate against starter Jason Berken and 2 relievers, with most of the damage being done by the bottom of the lineup. Lyle Overbay had a good day at the plate with 2 walks (the team's only two) and a single, Alex Rios was even better with two doubles, and Raul Chavez had an RBI double. Even whipping boy David Dellucci cashed a run with an RBI groundout. Everyone else was quiet, most notably Scott Rolen, who had his 25-game hitting streak snapped.

From the Pen:

Shawn Camp was initially called on to relieve Cecil in the 7th and did not look sharp at all. He gave up a double and walked Cesar Izturis (always a bad move), getting his only out on a Matt Wieters lineout. Jesse Carlson came in and got out of the inning with the lead and the shutout intact - a Brian Roberts long fly to right and an Adam Jones foulout to first. Carlson and Frasor split the 8th without much ado, and then Scott Downs was absolutely filthy in the ninth, carving up the Os with a groundout and two strikeouts - his hook was back in a big way.

It was a quiet day for the offense, but a good efficient win for a team that hasn't had many lately. Two more rookies will go at it tomorrow with Ricky Romero for the Jays and Brad Bergesen, who's been Baltimore's best pitcher, for the O's.

Hated the Strike Zone Tonight, Jays Lose to Rays in Extras

Tom Dakers — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 03:24:35 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

Yes, vote early and often for Adam Lind for the All-Star game.. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

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Blue Jays1 Rays 3

Marc Rzepczynski pitched great. 6 innings, 2 hits, 7 strikeouts, 4 walks. One of the walks forced in a run. Gameday has one of the four balls, of that walk, right on the inside corner. Is too bad but is life. He Whose Name Can't Be Spelled, looks like a keeper. He's young and there will be ups and downs but boy he looked great.

Speaking of looked great, Shawn Camp went 3 shutout innings. I don't understand what happened to the reliever I hated last year. He has been terrific over the last little while, pitching multiple innings and doing it very well. Brandon League pitched a good tenth inning, helped by a terrible bunt attempt. In the 11th he got two quick outs. Then he got two strikes on Ben Zobrist and then walked him on four pitches. Again Game Day showed one of those pitches on the inside corner. If League gets that call, he's done a great job. He didn't. Then Pat Burrell hit a walk off homer. Even though Pat Tabler said League had 'only' given up 4 homers before that, that is too many for someone that has thrown as few pitches as League has and 5 is worse.

Yeah there was complaining in the thread about League pitching a second inning, but he looked good in the second inning, till the homer, and we do need to rest some arms in the pen.

Offensively we got 10 hits today, but could only push one run across. We had lots of chances. In the 2nd, Vernon Wells was on third with 2 out and David Dellucci struckout. Dellucci still doesn't have hit with the Jays, JP there is no reason to keep him around as long as you kept Wilkerson. In the 3rd with Aaron Hill on first, Adam Lind hit a ground rule double. Had the ball not bounced over the wall, Hill would have scored. Then with runners on second and third Rolen flied out to center.

In the 7th Vernon singled and Dellucci walked, but Barajas flied out. In the 8th we finally scored, singles by Marco Scutaro, Hill and Rolen got us a run. Then Vernon singled, but B.J Upton made a great throw to just get Hill at home. So we had the changes but a combination of bad luck and bad swings hurt.

Vernon had 3 hits, and came with in a half step of a 4th. Scoot and Hill had 2 hits each. But 0 fors for Overbay, Rios, Dellucci and Barajas hurt.

Jays of the Day are Camp (.298 WPA) and Rzepczynski (.182). Honorable mention to Hill. Suckage Jays are Overbay (-.244), Barajas (-.208), Lind (-.196) and Rios (-.195). Oh and League (-.214).

In other news Shawn Marcum might be back in August. Yeah that's another one I'll believe when I see it. Speaking of which, everyone and their brother wants to trade for Roy Halladay. Yeah I know, that's not news either, would have to be a fool not to want him on your team. Tomorrow Brian Tallet goes against Scott Kazmir (4-5, 6.79). How you go 4-5 with an ERA of almost 7 I don't know. Game thread was fun tonight, game ending not so much.

Pat Burrell Hits Game-Winning Homer

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 02:38:14 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

Carlos Pena's mission is hurting the Rays!

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This game started at 7:08, at 9:06 the game was entering the eighth inning. At 9:46, the Rays were batting in ninth inning. That tells you all you need to know about either team's offense through the first seven innings. Give credit to James Shields and Marc Rzepczynski for pitching quickly and efficiently. As far as major league debuts go, six innings, seven strikeouts, four walks, and a pair of hits against one of the top offenses in the American League is pretty outstanding. Hopefully the Rays make up for it the next time they catch him.
Shields yet again receives little run support. One run is infinitely more than the amount Shields got against Toronto last week, but still. The Rays average 5.4 runs per game, Shields has received more than 5 runs of support in four starts, 5 runs in three, 4 runs in one, 3 runs in six, 1 run twice (now), and no runs twice. That's 10 games with 3 or less runs worth of support. Shields is good, just not quite that good. At some point randomness will swing his way.
Shawn Camp receives snarky comments by the pound when he pitches against the Rays. People seem to forget Camp's decent 2006 in light of the horrendous 2007. Evidently groundball pitchers and poor infield defenses do not mix, as evident by the differential in Camp's ERA and FIP:

2006 4.68 ERA/4.33 FIP
2007 7.20 ERA/5.29 FIP
2008 4.12 ERA/3.21 FIP
2009 4.10 ERA/3.82 FIP

The "Vote Los" poster behind home plate loses the charm and warmth of the t-shirt logo by replacing Pena's head with the letter "o". I know the image is displayed on a green screen, but can you imagine the opposing pitcher looking up only to see a smiling Pena head starring back from behind the plate then adjusting his peripheral vision to see the real Pena starring back from the plate.
Joe Dillon is indeed alive, as confirmed in pre-game warm-ups. During games he sits, enclosed in glass, with Emergency written on the outside of the case.
After Pat Burrell skied one to the left field warning track, I raised the question to Erik on whether even Ben Zobrist had homered from the right side very often while playing at the Trop. I looked it up, 5/16 Trop homers have been right-handed; more than I estimated, but with the exception of B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria, it doesn't seem like we see too many righties homer.
Before Dioner Navarro bunted out, my browser tab was opened to Miguel Olivo's FanGraphs page. Desperate times...
I enjoy watching Pat Burrell hit homeruns when it involves turning on 96 mile per hour fastballs. A normal Burrell is someone who could slam balls out of the Trop as well.

First Half Report Card: The Pitchers

Tom Dakers — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:02:58 -0000

The pitchers turn.

Roy Halladay:A+: Is there anything new that can be said about Doc? Until his injury he hadn't gone less than 7 innings in a game. He is 2^nd among AL pitchers in VORP at 37.0, likely without the couple of starts missed to injury he'd be 1^st. His BABIP is a little high, .305, so he is having a little bad luck on balls in play. He's striking out almost 8 per 9 innings. All his splits are good, he's as good against lefties as he is against righties. Doesn't give up many home runs. You guys know he's great, it is either him or Zack Greinke for All-Star game starter.

The rest of the pitchers are after the jump.

Brian Tallet: B: Who expected him to be this good as a starter? He has had a few bad starts but then he was a reliever at the start of the season, can't expect the transition to be seamless. He has actually done better against right-handed hitters (.634 OPS) than left-handers (.869 OPS). He is striking out 6.75/9 innings. He walks a few too many, 4.28/9 innings. He has had a bit of luck on balls in play with a .258 BABIP. I am not sure we can hope he continues to pitch like he has but he's been just what we needed with all the injuries.

Scott Richmond: A-: Our token Canadian, he's improved a lot this season. Is getting lucky on BABIP, .246 (or perhaps it is our great defence that turns everything into outs. He has improved against left-handed batters a little (.878 OPS) but still have a longs ways to go, he's great against right-handers (.527 OPS). He is striking out 7.49/9 innings, but is walking a few more than last season (3.16/9). It is hard to complain about a guy that has a 3.69 ERA, who wasn't even in a major league system two years ago.

Ricky Romero: A: How does this happen? How does a guy go from poster child for how lousy JP Riccardi is at drafting to a solid Rookie of the Year candidate in 3 months? Striking out 7.5 a game while walking less than 3 a game has some to do with it. If it wasn't for those couple of poor starts after he came off the DL he'd be out performing Doc and that's not easy to do. He hasn't been overly lucky on balls in play (.291 BABIP) so I can see him continuing to pitch like he has the rest of the season or even getting better.

Jesse Carlson: D-: He had a great April, less good May but then 8 of his 12 earned runs came in one appearance. In June he's only allowed more than 1 earned run in 1 appearance. He's actually been worse against left-handers than right-handers. I did wonder, last year, if some of his effectiveness was how he hid the ball and that if batters saw him enough they would get used to him. Maybe that's happened.

Brandon League: D-: Had a terrible June, 7.90 ERA. Seems to me he has so much movement on his pitches that he can't keep them over the plate. If they aren't chased he has to take something off them to hit the strike zone and then he's hit hard. Still is striking out a batter an inning and is throwing very hard. He was great last year and on any given day, can be great this year.

Shawn Camp: C: Was good in April, poor in May and good again in June. He's pitched multiple innings (up to 4) a number of times. He's actually been doing better vs LHB (.622 OPS) then RHB (.850 OPS). Likely explained by small sample size. I'm really not a fan but he's been doing a good job in long relief and I think that the spot for him.

Jason Frasor: A: He's had one bad game this season. Other than that day in Atlanta he's given up 2 earned runs. For a guy no one had any faith in last year, he has been amazing. He's been great against RHB and good against lefties. I like him better as a setup man but mostly because that would mean that Downs was back.

Scott Downs: A: He has given up runs in just 2 appearances. His WHIP is .878 and is striking out a batter an inning. He's been great for the last 3 seasons and with any luck at all he'll continue to be great. He doesn't walk people, he doesn't give up homers. He's just great. He's been better against RHB than LHB but that's likely a sample size thing. I hope he's back soon.

B.J. Ryan: F+: I know people aren't going to want to hear this but he's been quite good for the last month, 1 earned run in June. Too many walks still. I wouldn't mind seeing him move up to a LOOGY role on the team.

We'll give the dozen or so other guys that have pitched for us this season an incomplete. Some have done well like Hayhurst and Accardo. Some have done far less well Purcey, Janssen, Mills, Burris but then none of them have had a enough innings to give them a grade.

We’ll give the dozen or so other guys that have pitched for us this season an incomplete. Some have done well like Hayhurst and Accardo. Some have done far less well Purcey, Janssen, Mills, Burris but then none of them have had a enough innings to give them a grade.

I was going to grade Cito and JP here but really it tough to call. JP deserves great credit for having so many major league ready arms available. But then we still have the issue from last year where he signs guys that where good years ago and hopes they find the fountain of youth. Millar seems like this year's Wilkerson. He was smart enough not to replace Scoot with someone overpaid.

Cito? Well the team is over .500 with roughly 45 injured pitchers. He is, apparently, a great batting coach but if he is so good, why can't he fix Wells and Rios. Why can't he get Barajas to be more consistent. He drives me crazy, constantly with his in-game moves. But likely they haven't cost us much. Having just finished reading about Casey Stengel, it's obvious to me that managers can make too many moves as easy as too few. No manager is perfect.

So let's not grade either of them for the moment and see how the season unfolds.

Phillies at Blue Jays: June 26-28

Matt Swartz — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 03:28:59 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Series already underway, and this picture typifies the Phillies' mood. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

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I didn't get a chance to post this on time, thanks in part to BP Idol's "Deadline Week", but I did do all the work and this should be a good reference point for Saturday and Sunday afternoons' games.

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:07-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ricky Romero (L)

Saturday, 1:07-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Brad Mills (L)

Sunday, 1:07-- Jamie Moyre (L) vs. Brian Tallet (L)

After the split, I preview all the players, their splits, and the matchups

BLUE JAYS

LINE UP

1) SS Marco Scutaro (R): .294/.393/.432

projection average (proj): .260/.335/.365
projected BB/PA (bb): 9.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14.5%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .290 but i have him at .301.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): very patient and good eye, excellent contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .706 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 1.0 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .718 vs .713 ops; 1.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles against power pitchers

2) 2B Aaron Hill (R): .306/.346/.497

proj: .280/.340/.410
bb: 7%
k: 14.5%
gb: 41%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: okay eye, somewhat patient, and decent contact
r/l: .741 vs .837 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .725 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

3) RF Alex Rios (R): .267/.322/.432

proj: .285/.345/.470
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330 but i have him around .315
s/c/z: decent eye and contact
r/l: .784 vs .799 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .835 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter at all
other: none

4) CF Vernon Wells (R): .255/.310/.404

proj: .275/.335/.455
bb: 7%
k: 14%
gb: 41%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: i have him around .295 which is slightly above where others have him
s/c/z: somewhat impatient but decent eye, somewhat okay contact
r/l: .762 vs .888 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .842 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) DH Adam Lind (L): .307/.386/.550

proj: .280/.320/.445
bb: 6.5%
k: 20%
gb: 47%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320 but i have him at .298.
s/c/z: not a good eye, not that patient, okay contact
r/l: .789 vs .699 ops; 3.0 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .778 vs .754 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: decent pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Scott Rolen (R): .329/.304/.477

proj: .265/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 17%
gb: 34%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .287 which is about where the projection systems have him.
s/c/z: very good eye, decent contact, decent patience
r/l: .856 vs .916 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .874 vs .867 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) 1B Lyle Overbay (L): .279/.400/.525

proj: .270/.350/.420
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 46%
iff: 4%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .314 which is similar to where others have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patience, average contact
r/l: .842 vs .724 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .844 vs .768 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

8) C Rod Barajas (R): .263/.300/.423

proj: .245/.295/.400
bb: 6%
k: 18%
gb: 30%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: i have him at .279 which is a few points higher than other systems do (around .270)
s/c/z: impatient, not great eye, average contact
r/l: .695 vs .724 ops; 3.1 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .696 vs .707 ops; 3.2 vs 2.8 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: much better against groundball pitchers

9) LF Jose Bautista (R): .257/.391/.354

proj: .240/.325/.415
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .282 which is about where other systems do.
s/c/z: patient with good eye and average contact
r/l: .687 vs .820 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .731 vs .723 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Raul Chavez (R): .263/.263/.368

proj: .230/.275/.330
bb: 4%
k: 15%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projections vary but around .265
s/c/z: impatient without a good eye and decent contact
r/l: .547 vs .550 ops; 5.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .554 vs .542 ops; 3.3 vs 4.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

SS John McDonald (R): .217/.217/.217

proj: .235/.280/.320
bb: 5%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .270
s/c/z: okay eye and patience; above average contact
r/l: .558 vs .640 ops; 4.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .544 vs .621 ops; 3.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/DH Kevin Millar (R): .246/.318/.388

proj: .245/.340/.395
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .270 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: good eye, okay patience, above average contact
r/l: .823 vs .802 ops; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .875 vs .758 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Russ Adams (L): .333/.385/.333

proj: .240/.305/.370
bb: 8%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .275
s/c/z: patient with good eye, good contact. sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .723 vs .521 ops; 1.4 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .748 vs .631 ops; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Ricky Romero (L): 3.59 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.55 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.90 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 58% fb, 20% sl, 15% ch, 7% cb
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.7 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Romero vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K

Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Victorino: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Werth: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Brad Mills (L): 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 2 HR, 4gb/14bip

proj avg: 5.80 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 29% so far
pitches: 41% fb, 33% ch, 26% cb
r/l: better vs RHB in minors
h/a: not enough info

Mills vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Victorino: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Mayberry: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Werth: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Brian Tallet (L): 4.36 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.45 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 62% fb, 21% sl, 17% ch in 2008; but in 2009: 61% fb, 20% ch, 14% ct, 6% sl
r/l: .684 vs .723 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .592 vs .788 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb (.219 BABIP in 457 AB at home)

Tallet vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Brett Cecil (L): 5.19 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.43 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 53% so far
pitches: 63% fb, 21% sl, 12% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.064 vs .765 ops; 1.9 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Cecil: has not played any Phillies

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Scott Richmond (R): 3.68 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.37 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 52% fb, 29% sl, 11% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .389 vs 1.055 ops; 6.0 vs 2.0 k/bb (K's nearly 25% of righties but only 14% of lefties)
h/a: .860 vs .639 ops; 4.1 vs 2.3 k/bb

Richmond vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Coste: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Casey Janssen (R): 6.23 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 3.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 2.4 bB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 (nowhere near a consensus on him)
gb: 51%
pitches: 41% fb, 25% ct, 19% sl, 12% cb, 3% ch
r/l: .712 vs .745 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .767 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb

Janssen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABED LIST: Roy Halladay (R): 2.53 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.53 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 2008: 41% fb, 33% ct, 23% cb, 3% ch; 2009: 30% fb, 45% ct, 24% cb, 1% ch
r/l: .663 vs .682 ops; 3.8 vs 2.7 k/bb; faces more lefties than righties and lefties do better on contact than righties-- probably is selection bias & he's probably very tough on righties
h/a: .664 vs .683 ops; 3.5 vs 2.8 k/bb

Halladay vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/30, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 10/26, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

Jason Frasor (R): 2.10 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.71 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 2% ch
r/l: .675 vs .681 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .685 vs .670 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Frasor vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jesse Carlson (L): 5.14 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 43% fb, 56% sl, 1% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .620 vs .635 ops; 2.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .509 vs .741 ops; 3.6 vs 1.7 k/bb

Carlson vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

B.J. Ryan (L): 5.50 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.28 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 80% fb, 20% sl, 0.3% ch
r/l: .665 vs .558 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .569 vs .689 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ryan vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 BB, 8 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brandon League (R): 5.94 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA< 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 83% fb, 12% sl, 5% ch
r/l: .610 vs .834 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .698 vs .723 ops; 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb

League vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Mayberry: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Shawn Camp (R): 4.09 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 65% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .773 vs .932 ops; 3.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .784 vs .892 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Camp vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Dirk Hayhurst (R): 1.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.84 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.05 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 57% fb, 25% cb, 11% ch, 6% sl
r/l: no major splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Hayhurst: vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 1 BB

Mayberry: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Jeremy Accardo (R): 3 IP,1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 2gb/6bip

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 72% fb, 15% sf. 6% ct
r/l: .741 vs .552 ops; 2.7 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .639 ops; 2.6 vs 2.1 k/bb

Accardo vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

WErth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Mayberry: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .211/.254/.328

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.366/.456

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.430/.555

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .254/.329/.551

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .257/.344/.460

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .289/.332/.398

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

7) LF John Mayberry (R): .320/.346/.760

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .248/.359/.391

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .242/.337/.396

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .145/.234/.218

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .233/.288/.425

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .288/.431/.500
proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.380/.678

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.24 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 2/8, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Millar: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

Scutaro: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Barajas: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

Bautista: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Hill: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Lind: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Rios: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Wells: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.47 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Blue Jays

SUNDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.57 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 14/40, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 14/32, 1 2B, 3 HR, BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rios: 10/22, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 8/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
McDonald: 6/16, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Overbay: 6/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rolen: 3/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Barajas: 2/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Millar: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Bautista: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.06 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.86 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 8/25, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rios: 5/18, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Hill: 1/15, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Adams: 3/14, 1 2B, 0 BB, 5 K

Barajas: 2/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Millar: 3/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Overbay: 4/12, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bautista: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.00 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Blue Jays

BULLPEN

Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
Bautista: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Overbay: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Barajas: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rios: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Adams: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.97 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Wells: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Inglett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2 BB
Lind: 1 BB

McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Overbay: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 5.40 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.76 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Blue Jays:

Scutaro: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 1 BB
Scutaro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1 BB

Overbay: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Blue Jays:

Rios: 3/13, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wells: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Scutaro: 0/5, 2 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/3, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.22 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.34 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 8/20, 3 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Millar: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Barjas: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Adams:1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.72 ERA, 10.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.68 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Wells: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
McDonald: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rios: 1/2, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Adams: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.46 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rolen: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rios: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Adams: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Barajas: 1/1,1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Lind: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 1 BB
Inglett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1,0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 1/3,0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 3/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Lind: 2 BB

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.63 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bautista: 1/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Rolen: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 1 SF

It's easy as 1, 2, 3. Simple as Do - Re - Mi. Reds win, 7-5

Brendanukkah — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:46:25 -0000

More photos » by NATHAN DENETTE - AP

Dusty's new "Get a hit or I'll punch you!" strategy is paying dividends. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. Joey came back to play in front of his home town and had a big day at the plate. He went 4-5, with a double, a home run, three RBI and two runs scored. We missed you, big guy.

Key Plays

A rested Willy Taveras got things started for the Reds with a double to lead off the game. Votto drove him in with a double of his own, then Jonny Gomes drove in Votto with a double of his own, Ramon Hernandez walked, and Jay Bruce drove both of them in with a double of his own. Dusty started lifting his glasses up and down and called over to Cito Gaston, saying, "I can't see real good, is that Bronson Arroyo you've got pitching out there?"
Gaston told him to STFU, then instructed Aaron Hill to hit a home run off Johnny Cueto. "Sure thing, Skip." 4-1.
No worries, eh? The Reds got that run right back in the second with singles from Chris Dickerson, Jerry Hairston, and Votto. With a 5-1 lead, they were laughing so hard that they didn't care that failed to knock anyone in when the bases were loaded in the 3rd.
Cueto was cruising, but ran into some trouble in the fifth inning. Everyone was watching to see what L.Overbay would do. He was walking for the weekend, drawing a base on balls to start the inning. Russ Adams singled, but Cueto got Marco Scutaro to fly out. Two outs, and everything's cool, yeah? No, Aaron Hill walked, and Vernon Wells hit a two run double. Scott Rolen then hit a single, scoring another two runs and tying the game. The Blue Jays were going off the deep end, insisting that everyone needs a second chance.
Votto then informed them that that shit was played out and hit a home run to put the Reds back on top, in our Frisch's Big Boy Big Play of the Game.
The Reds decided to pick up some traveler's insurance in the eighth inning. Previously unknown Paul Janish led off the inning with a double, and Dickerson bunted him to third. It's called playing the percentages. It's what good managers do to win ballgames. Then they have Willy Taveras try a suicide squeeze. But because it was that type of day, the squeeze worked! That's right, T-Virus got an RBI. He also HAVOC'd his way to third base with a stolen base and a wild pitch, but Hairston and Phillips managed to strand him there.

FanGraphs

Other Notes

This was the first time this season Joey Votto batted cleanup. He did pretty well there, bagging his first homer since May 26.
Overshadowed like Farrah Fawcett, Willy Taveras had one of his best games of the season, going 3-5 with a double, an RBI, a run scored, and a stolen base. Since Dusty's gonna play him there regardless, let's hope our leadoff hitter has turned a corner.
Jonny Gomes has thrived against the AL, especially in his last five games. He is 7-14 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, and 4 BB.
The Reds held the Jays to only five hits, although they maximized their efforts for five runs. They also drew four walks, which came back to haunt. It's probably for the best though, since Reds pitching was on the verge of killing smooth music for the next ten years.

Final - 6.25.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7	15	0
Toronto Blue Jays	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	5	5	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (7 - 4) SV: Francisco Cordero (18) LP: Shawn Camp (0 - 3)

Complete Coverage >