SB Nation - Michael Brantley

Minor Improvements: Offense

APV — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 20:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Michael Brantley should not spend much time riding the bench in 2010

What is impressive about two of the Indians most improved seasons by minor league offensive players is that they were already top prospects. Amazingly, Carlos Santana might have had the most improved season of any Indians minor leaguer, despite coming off a sensational 2008 season.

Carlos Santana, in case you forgot, put up a .326/.431/.568 last season, spending most of his time in high-A Inland Empire and then Kinston. That included 21 HRs, 65 total XBHs, and more walks (89) than Ks (85). This year he advanced to AA and spent the entire season as the constant rock in the middle of the Aeros potent lineup. Any adjustment time Santana needed to AA talent was minimal, as he put up a .290/.413/.530 line with 55 XBHs (23 HRs) and even more walks (90) than Ks (83). Part of what made his 2009 so impressive however was that there was good reason to suspect some regression in his numbers coming into the season. His 2008 was built on the back of a +.370 BABIP. What he did this year he did with a totally reasonably .314 BABIP...no getting lucky argument for 2009, it was just the real thing.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.290	.413	.530	.943	1.028
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
16.8	15.5	23	+60	10.9

Michael Brantley, like Santana, was a top prospect coming into the season. As a member of the Brewers AA Huntsville team Brantley put up a .319/.395/.398 line with a phenomenal 5.6% K-rate. Again - Brantley's baseline may not jump out as much improved. In fact, in a lot of ways, it does not look improved at all. This year in Buffalo he put up a .267/.350/.361 line (before hitting .313/358/.348 for a month in Cleveland). Aside from advancing to AAA, where's the improvement? Again the answer lies deeper in his numbers. Michael Brantley had an underwhelming .288 BABIP this season despite putting up line drive rates well over 20% essentially every month - just as we saw in September, Brantley is a line drive machine. Corrected for this, Brantley's adjusted OPS for 2009 was actually .821, up from .767 in 2008. And despite being hobbled early in the season with a hamstring issue he stole 46 bases in 51 attempts. Now if only we could say with certainty he was a great defender (or even a good one)...

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.267	.350	.361	.711	.821
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
11.2	9.1	6	+76	9.1

John Drennen is not a top prospect. There was a time (after the 2006 season) when Drennen was a good looking young prospect, and not just because he managed to take Roger Clemens deep in a minor league game. Then came a disappointing 2007, and then a truly terrible 2008 despite repeating Kinston. Starting in Kinston for a third straight time seemed to light a fire in Drennen, as he began the season hitting .270/.395/.397 in the season's first month. The improved plate discipline was a particular surprise. Following his promotion to Akron his plate discipline regressed, but his power spiked to a career high (36 XBHs, including 8 HRs, in 354 plate appearances). Drennen's final cumulative line, .273/.333/.441 is not going to earn him a ticket to Cleveland, but given that he just turned 23 in the season's final month, it does put him back in the picture somewhat.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.273	.333	.441	.792	.821
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
7.7	16.0	8	0	5.4

Other offensive players who showed solid improvements from 2008 to 2009: Matt LaPorta, Jordan Brown, Donnie Webb, Lonnie Chisenhall, Matt McBride and Nick Weglarz. Pitchers will come later in the week.

UPDATE: A couple other players probably deserve a slightly longer shout-out...

It was in many ways a good year for Andy Marte. Certainly his best season since his final season with the Braves organization in 2004 at AAA Richmond. Between Columbus and Cleveland Marte put up 24 HRs and 30 2Bs. Marte seems have morphed into contact/BABIP driven offensive player, perhaps reflective of his strong pull tendencies. To be worth anything with that kind of approach he needs to show considerable power, and this season was pretty much his best power display as a pro player.

This year was also Jordan Brown's best season as a pro. Brown has followed a similar trajectory of plate discipline regression/power increase that Marte has. Unfortunately for Brown the power isn't really quite as good (.196 ISOP to Marte's .266 in AAA) and the defensive is more of a limiting circumstance. The MLE (from minorleaugesplits.com) line from Brown's season is .301/.339/.464.

Finally, Nick Weglarz rebounded pretty nicely from a disappointing 2008 season interrupted by injuries and the olympics. Weglarz baseline numbers, .227/.377/.431, are considerable deflated by a .253 BABIP (his previous career low was .311 in his rookie campaign at Burlington). His power jumped back towards his 2007 figures, which were solid, if not yet into the light-tower territory people expect from him. His BB-rate reached a career high of over 17.5% while his K-rate remained pretty stable at 18.3%. Amazingly he'll still just be 22 next year, perfect time I hope for a huge season and preparation for a 2011 rookie presence in Cleveland.

Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro

Jay — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:53:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Is just developing a good process enough?

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This is the final installment in a 12-part series.

"A Hit Is A Hit" — The Sopranos, season one.

Christopher has been bankrolling a band called "Visiting Day", who are managed by his girlfriend Adriana. He plays the band's demo to his associate Hesh, an old-timer in the music business.

CHRISTOPHER: So?

HESH: I think it's ... not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Wanna be a little more specific?

HESH: There's good. And there's not good. This is not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Okay, maybe it's not your era — no offense, but ...

HESH: Kid, music is music, talent is talent. I don't care who you are. I seen it all. I seen heavy metal invented by Hendrix at the Bottom Line, he just got out of the army. I told him, "Kid, I don't know what you call it — talent, charisma, magic — whatever it is, you got it." These guys ... [gestures to the cassette] ... I'm sorry, they don't.

CHRISTOPHER: That Vito is a great guitar player, Hesh.

HESH: Good, fine, he's a great guitar player. However, there's one constant in the music business: A hit is a hit. And this, my friend, is not a hit.

CHRISTOPHER: But why?

HESH: Christ. Reasons we can never comprehend or codify, you pitiful schlepper.

Of all the installments in this series, this is the one where it's most tempting to beg off and admit, this might just above my pay grade. I'll be honest, I can't say with much confidence whether Mark Shapiro should be fired. What I can say is that there are definitely good reasons to fire him.

Before we get to that, better face up to some hard facts. If you're going to fire Shapiro, you have to believe that a better option is available. Chris Antonetti is the heir apparent, but you fire Shapiro and keep Antonetti only if you think that in keeping Antonetti, you preserve the best parts of Shapiro while rooting out his shortcomings. Heck, maybe that's actually the case, but I personally couldn't say. It doesn't seem likely. And if Antonetti was the instant front-runner for most any GM opening, what would that make Shapiro if he were available?

Shapiro's calling card is turning walk-year veterans into prospects who become multi-year contributors to the team — a truly staggering haul, including Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Coco Crisp, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Bard and Kelly Shoppach. Add to that list, potentially, over the next several years, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Luis Valbuena, Michael Brantley, Lou Marson, plus a half-dozen significant pitching prospects, plus Mark DeRosa, Arthur Rhodes, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez. Even his least successful trade acquisitions — Alex Escobar, Jason Michaels, Brandon Phillips, Billy Traber, Andy Marte, Josh Barfield — have not been entirely bereft of big-league talent.

We've chanted that litany before, but it bears recalling because horse trading is one of the most important jobs of a GM, and it's notably one of the only jobs where success or failure is directly traced to his decision. Shapiro also has had an impressive run with third-tier free agent starting pitchers — Pavano made 33 starts and netted a decent prospect, Byrd completed three serviceable seasons, Millwood won the freakin' ERA title, and even Brian Anderson did okay for a couple of years. And while fans rightly bemoan the dead weight of Hafner's contract, Shapiro has not really made the big, crippling mistakes that befall most GMs — on the balance sheet, Hafner-Westbrook-Dellucci pale before Wells-Rios-Ryan.

If you're going to get rid of Shapiro and his like-minded colleagues, then you have to be willing to live without those exemplary skills — without his leadership, class, and intelligence, his deftness with trades and contracts, the respect he commands within the industry, and especially — especially — his willingness to take the public body blows when tough decisions need to be made. You can't assume that the next guy will excel in all of those areas. I am certain we'd miss those qualities.

Having said that, I can tell you why Shapiro should be fired in one word: Talent.

Baseball is never simple. As a rule, the world's most elite natural athletes cannot succeed as major leaguers. Hitting and pitching are simply too hard. Hitting at this level requires a knack that may be the hardest thing to quantify or characterize in all of sports, and if you don't have it, then all the talk or mechanics and approaches in the world can't save you, even if you have several NBA championships and MVP awards on your résumé. Pitching at this level requires a freakish combination of precise muscle control, huge arm-generated torque, resistance to elbow and shoulder injury under extreme stress, and intelligence.

Running a baseball club may be just as hard and just as unquantifiable; after all, more than a few titans of industry have tried and failed. A brilliant executive can't necessarily run a ballclub any better than a world-class athlete can hit a curveball. The brilliant executive can be an inspiring leader, managing and empowering his charges. He can define what kind of people he wants working in the organization, hire them, set expectations, evaluate them, act on them. He can fire people. He can order case studies and surveys of best practices. He can analyze statistics and devise processes, enact them, evaluate them, refine them, start over from scratch if need be. He can maintain outstanding communication with his staff, with his bosses, with the public. He can do all these things reliably, even predictably, because he simply has the tools and the skills.

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Sometimes — often, maybe — it comes down to reasons we can never comprehend or codify, pitiful schleppers that we are.

Evaluating talent is a special skill, and here I can speak with some experience. Most of my professional life is centered around my ability to identify genuine talent — musical talent, IT talent, and even writing talent — people who reliably will perform at a high or exceptionally high level, just about 100 percent of the time. I have, on occasion, identified individuals with weak paper qualifications who later went on to excel in their field. In some cases, they thrived in part because I gave them an opportunity and aided their development. In other cases, their success was inevitable, and I just saw it earlier than some others.

I am not suggesting, by any stretch of the imagination, that I have the ability to judge baseball talent. Maybe, if I'd spent 20 years working as a baseball professional, learning from thousands of discussions with scouts and making and testing my own observations — maybe then, but perhaps not even then. For whatever it's worth, though, I can tell you that my ability to assess a person's talents is entirely intuitive. I have no ability to explain it, or to teach anyone else how to do it. I can be highly analytical in my assessments of people, breaking down facts and metrics, making rules and devising grading systems to create rankings — and I can teach these things by rote and by example. However, none of that has anything to do with being able to differentiate reliably between a high ceiling and a low ceiling.

I can't tell you for sure that it's the same for baseball, but I worry that it is. Most of the people reading this could be trained in the rudiments of being a low-level scout — doing your homework and measuring some kid's raw tools on the field. Skills are another thing entirely — evaluating footwork and positioning on defense, observing quality of command across a variety of pitches, intuiting the difference between a bad day and a chronic problem. Beyond these, another level, the crucial, game-changing question: Will this ballplayer develop skills beyond what he's showing today? How does he project to a different level at a different age, or even just to a different ballpark in a different league?

I have no doubt that great baseball scouts learned a lot from the great scouts who came before them, and I have no doubt that a gifted executive can learn immensely from a great scout, purely by his ability to listen and communicate and absorb. At the same time, I am quite sure that the greatest talent evaluators in the game are possessed of something that is innate and ineffable. And I am genuinely concerned that the Indians don't employ any of those people — and that, in fact, Shapiro may have favored others in the organization to the point where the best evaluators left.

Take a look at the AP report of Neal Huntington being hired away by the Pirates:

Huntington formerly was the assistant general manager to the Indians' Mark Shapiro, but dropped behind vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and assistant general manager John Mirabelli on the front office depth chart two years ago.

Huntington accepted a different role in 2005, Shapiro said, because Antonetti's skills were in the management and administrative side, while Huntington's were in evaluation and scouting.

"My skill set and passion were more that of an evaluator, but they never technically took me out of the front office," Huntington said. "I was exposed to some incredible things -- rebuilding an organization and being involved in every decision, every tough decision, that was made."

And from the MLB.com report:

As an adviser to Shapiro and vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, Huntington was involved in nearly all personnel and staffing decisions, as well as trade acquisition discussions. He also spent the majority of his time evaluating talent on both the Minor and Major League level.

When asked about Huntington, Shapiro responded: "[Huntington is] one of our chief evaluators and one of our strongest voices on every level," Shapiro said.

Here's a guy who was the highest-ranking evaluator in the organization and possibly the best, a guy with a master's degree in sports management from UMass, and essentially, he was passed over — well treated, perhaps, but pointedly not in line for a future role as GM. So too, perhaps, was John Farrell, who upon leaving Cleveland — quite amicably, as Huntington did — was quoted to say that he was looking to have a larger voice in an organization. Farrell had been a major league pitcher and a college pitching coach, and with the Indians he served stints as Farm Director and Director of Player Development. Despite his experience and impeccable reputation, Farrell too was not viewed as the future leader of the organization.

Years earlier, there was Tony LaCava, whom the Indians hired in 2002 as national cross-checker, essentially rescuing him from the sinking-ship Montreal Expos. As the Expos very recent Farm Director, LaCava naturally was instrumental in selecting the prospects to be received in the Colon deal, which is not only Shapiro's signature trade, but arguably the most successful trade of a veteran for prospects by any GM, ever. LaCava, too, was not retained in the Indians organization, moving on to the Blue Jays as Assistant GM in 2003, just one year later, while John Mirabelli continued his string of generally disastrous drafts.

Like Huntington, LaCava is going to be a GM sooner or later, yet he wasn't good enough to be Assistant GM in Cleveland. None of these guys were given large enough roles in the organization to keep them around, and no doubt the Indians were possessed of too much executive talent to keep in-house — a nice problem to have. Still, given how things have gone since, it's telling that the prince-in-waiting anointment, and present-day "co-GM" status, went not to an ace evaluator, but instead to Antonetti, a man whose background and skill set are more or less identical to Shapiro's.

For all the talk about being open to all ideas and all viewpoints, the major player-evaluation talent in the Indians organization was basically told that being a solid administrator was more important, and that their path to bigger jobs would have to be in some other, presumably less enlightened organization — and never mind that it doesn't matter how well administered your organization is if you don't know who the best talent is. (Is it any wonder, then, that when Shapiro hires a former catcher for a manager, he then populates his coaching staff almost entirely with other former catchers? All leaders lead by example, first and foremost.)

This is not to say that an executive without a scouting background cannot be an outstanding GM, but it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the "Ivy League whiz kid" GM model tend to have a "wise old baseball man" figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan. But when non-scout-gifted-executives Shapiro and Antonetti huddle to make the big decisions, who are the wise old evaluators in the room — Charles Nagy and Jason Bere?

Later that night, at home, Adriana and Christopher discuss Visiting Day's potential. Hip-hop mogul "Massive Genius" has told Adriana that the band's demos are promising.

CHRISTOPHER: You know how I use the technique of positive visualization?

ADRIANA: I know you talk about it. You're fairly negative a lot of the time.

CHRISTOPHER: I think you should mentally prepare for the possibility that Visiting Day sucks.

ADRIANA: What?

CHRISTOPHER: I think that ... the only reason you've gotten this far with Massive is ... he wants to be in your pants.

ADRIANA: Boy, oh, boy.

CHRISTOPHER: Look, I had some experts listen to the demo ... they crapped all over it. Sorry.

ADRIANA: Who, Hesh? That old synagogue cantor?

CHRISTOPHER: Silvio. Hey, he owned rock clubs in Asbury. You heard what Squid said. A professional engineer.

ADRIANA: What about my opinion? That it's good. That it's special. This is just a way for you to keep me down.

CHRISTOPHER: That ain't fair.

ADRIANA: What's wrong with it, huh? What's wrong with Visiting Day?

CHRISTOPHER: I don't know ... but it's a problem that you don't know.

This series of articles perhaps has only demonstrated the obvious, that a club this bad — which decides in June that it must not only tank the current season but the next season at the same time — has suffered multiple failures in more than one part of the organization. In any one area, we can talk about how much control that one group of people — coaches, scouts, trainers — really had, compared to the influence of the other groups and the whims of the fates. But a systemic failure points ultimately to Shapiro, who hired and is accountable for all of those groups, and the harsh truth is that every club must contend with the whims of the fates — or fail to contend with them, as the Indians have.

Amateur scouting has been a disaster since Shapiro took over; maybe time will reveal that it was fixed two or three years ago, but maybe not. Big-league scouting has been a mixed bag, with veteran acquisitions missing a lot more often than they hit — in Barfield's case, about four times more often. The training staff has won high praise from some in the industry, but they haven't stopped the Indians from being undercut severely by injuries to a half-dozen key players in just two years — in some cases, multiple injuries and disappointing rehab processes have afflicted a single player like Jake Westbrook over and over again. The farm system has been another mixed bag, producing too many players who dominate at Triple-A but can barely perform at replacement level in the majors. If all clubs were like the Indians in this regard, those MLE formulas might look a lot different.

We had a manager whose playing-time decisions often defied any imaginable logic or reason, who thought it was important to have Ramon Vazquez on his bench rather than future 30-30 man Brandon Phillips, and who thought it was a good idea to put Ryan Garko in the outfield, with a rookie flyball pitcher on the mound — scratch that, ever — and we had a GM who let him do these things. It's true that Shapiro fired Wedge, and he may be sincere in saying that bringing in a new manager is an exciting opportunity. Even so, Shapiro made it abundantly clear that he didn't think there was any real, qualitative reason why Wedge shouldn't continue to be the manager — his exact words were, "it's a cop-out."

We had extraordinarily bad — and sometimes historically bad — bullpens in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009. Those volcanic fiascos were, at least, largely Shapiro's direct creations, and at most, entirely the fault of Shapiro and people who were hired by Shapiro, and who generally have not been fired by Shapiro. They have turned too many contenders into also-rans, too many decent squads into train-wrecks, and too many season ticket holders into non-customers.

The sum of these observations is this one, frightening, inescapable conclusion: Shapiro has not given us any concrete reason to believe that he knows how to put people into critical positions who are capable of evaluating, developing and coaching real talent — the kind that can thrive at the major league level. Without people in key roles who are possessed of that kind of judgment and talent, it doesn't make any difference how good your organizational processes are or how much class-acting you do. We cannot contend on a diet of trade-acquired minor leaguers and recycled starting pitchers alone. If these things weren't clear five years ago, or even one year ago, they ought to be crystal clear now.

I am just a scribe, neither scout nor coach, not a baseball executive and certainly not a former major leaguer. So I don't really know what's wrong with the Cleveland Indians. But it's a problem if Mark Shapiro doesn't know either. And as much respect for him as I have, I'm not at all convinced that he does.

Game 161: Red Sox 11, Indians 6

Ryan — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 02:58:55 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

An ignominious end to Aaron Laffey's season.

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The Indians actually scored some runs tonight, but Aaron Laffey was awful, so the game ended in the usual way. The two teams combined for twelve runs in the first two innings, with the Red Sox accounting for eight of them. The big blow came on Victor Martinez's first career grand slam, naturally coming against the team that until two months he'd spent his entire career playing for.

Josh Beckett had very little command, missing with his fastball and hanging several curves. He had to throw over 50 pitches to get out of the second inning, but hung around long enough to qualify for a win. After the second inning, the game slowed down to a more normal pace, and true to irrelevant game that it was, Boston's starters were taken out as the contest entered the later innings.

Aaron Laffey gave eight earned runs in just two innings on seven hits and two walks, a disastrous ending to what was a pretty decent season, certainly the best season of the Indians' starters still on the roster. Jensen Lewis, in what was probably his last outing of the season, relieved Laffey and gave up two runs in two innings of work. His future is very much up in the air. Mike Gosling did an excellent job in mopup duty, giving up one run in four innings.

Next Up: Game 162. Ohka vs. Buchholz, 1:35 PM.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Asdrubal Cabrera	.128	Aaron Laffey	-.641
Michael Brantley	.097	Andy Marte	-.063
Shin-Soo Choo	.083	Matt LaPorta	-.050

Game 160: Red Sox 6, Indians 2

Ryan — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 03:42:42 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

As Jason Varitek goes for a foul ball, a Sawx fan shows off his spoon-swallowing skills.

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This series so far has to me felt like Spring Training games, though the two teams have different goals in mind for them. Boston's Terry Francona is trying to give his players enough playing time to stay sharp, but also keep them rested and healthy, while Eric Wedge is just trying to get this last weekend over so he can move on to other things. Meanwhile, the Indians lost their record thirteenth straight on the road.

Jeremy Sowers checked out early after giving up 3 runs on four hits and two walks, giving way to a series of relievers just getting their work in. Meanwhile, the offense had a goal to shoot for: scoring a run. The offense hadn't plated a run in over two games, and had to be closing in on some kind of team record for sustained futility. Luis Valbuena and Trevor Crowe finally broke the ice in the fifth off Daisuke Matsuzaka, but they had a couple opportunities before that, beginning with Michael Brantley's double to lead off the game. Matsuzaka took three meandering pitches to accomplish what every one good one would do; if he had to be that fine against this Indians lineup, I don't like his chances against deeper and more talented lineups in the postseason.

Next Up: Laffey vs. Beckett, 7:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Luis Valbuena	.091	Jeremy Sowers	-.213
Tony Sipp	.084	Jhonny Peralta	-.140
Travis Hafner	.041	Shin-Soo Choo	-.111

Games 157 and 158: Indians, White Sox Split Doubleheader

Ryan — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 02:15:34 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Gone, but not yet.

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Game 157: Indians 5, White Sox 1

Game 158: White Sox 1, Indians 0

A couple hours before the first game began, GM Mark Shapiro announced that manager Eric Wedge and all members of the major-league coaching staff would not be back for the 2010 season. The move was expected, and hopefully it represents the first step towards a championship team. Wedge handled the firing with class, though you would assume it wasn't a shock to him.

The pitching performances in the doubleheader were promising as well. Fausto Carmona pitched well for the second start in a row, and Masterson was brilliant in the nightcap. These were the last starts of the season for the two pitchers, and they couldn't have ended their seasons on a better note. Carmona was efficient, showing flashes of how he pitched in 2007. He went seven innings, walking just two and striking out 5. In some ways these last two starts make his 2009 season even more maddening, for you saw what he was capable of.

In the first game, the Indians were paced by Matt LaPorta (1-1, 2B, 2 BB) and Travis Hafner (2-3, HR), who hopefully will form a formidable right-left power combination in next year's lineup. LaPorta's streaking towards a league-average OPS as the season is winding down, and even though he's made less than 200 plate appearances in the majors, he's your cleanup hitter next season.

Even though the Indians ended their home schedule with a loss in game two, Justin Masterson's gem of a start was a great takeaway. He struck out 12, walked 2, and pitched a complete game. He allowed only one run, but unfortunately neither Mark Buerhle nor three Chicago relievers allowed a single run. Masterson had struggled down the stretch, which made this start even more of a surprise. In his last start against Detroit, he couldn't make it through five innings, and he hadn't gone seven innings in any start this season. Cleveland's next pitching coach now has an archetype pitching performance to try to emulate next year.

Next Up: The last series of the season. Carrasco vs. Lester, 7:10 PM

Game Graphs and WPA leaders after the jump...

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Fausto Carmona	.242	Jhonny Peralta	-.056
Matt LaPorta	.175	Michael Brantley	-.053
Travis Hafner	.108	Luis Valbuena	-.013

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Justin Masterson	.341	Jamey Carroll	-.151
Luis Valbuena	.037	Matt LaPorta	-.114
		Shin-Soo Choo	-.114

Game 153: Tigers 6, Indians 5

Ryan — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 03:37:24 -0000

More photos » by DAVID RICHARD - AP

There were some good things to take away from tonight's eleventh straight loss.

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This was, inexplicably, the best-played game during the current eleven-game losing streak. And though the matchup on paper predicted a blowout loss, the Indians had several opportunities to take control of the game.

Carlos Carrasco looked much more comfortable in his second start against the Tigers, though he's a long ways from a solid major-league starter. He got out of a couple jams early in the game, but couldn't limit the damage in the fourth inning. In that frame, he didn't give up the big hit, but three run-scoring singles and an RBI ground out. He didn't give up an extra-base hit, but instead allowed 6 singles and 3 walks.

The Indians owned Justin Verlander last year, but the lanky right-hander turned a corner in 2009. After the Indians took a 2-0 lead in the third on a Michael Brantley single, they had a great opportunity for an even larger inning with two on and still nobody out. Brantley stole second a couple pitches later to make the opportunity even more favorable. But Verlander, perhaps thinking of who was pitching for the Indians, retired the next three Indians and cruised from there. He threw a ton of pitches to get through seven innings thanks to that third inning, but the Tigers in retrospect needed him to go that long.

Meanwhile, the Indians actually made a game of it, though the two late-inning runs the bullpen allowed pushed the game just out of reach. Still, the Indians brought the winning run to the plate in the ninth inning, and would have had to the winning run on base had Brandon Inge not made a fantastic diving play to end the game.

There were some nice offensive signs. Travis Hafner pulled a ball on the inner half of the plate down the right-field line, something I can't recall him doing in quite a while. Shin-Soo Choo hit a two-run homer off Tigers closer Fernando Rodney. Michael Brantley continued to impress with his bat control; he collected another two hits, and stole a base. And Andy Marte is taking advantage of some unexpected playing time; he singled and doubled in four at-bats.

Next Up: The Indians go for a share of franchise infamy. Hernandez vs. Carmona, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Michael Brantley	.121	Carlos Carrasco	-.213
Travis Hafner	.108	Jhonny Peralta	-.169
Andy Marte	.080	Jamey Carroll	-.167

Game 150: Athletics 11, Indians 4

Ryan — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:41:56 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Fausto Carmona only gave up runs in two innings. But what innings they were.

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I suppose the one saving grace of this hideous September is that it will force major changes in the Indians organization. The Indians are now tied for last place in the AL Central, and just one game ahead of Baltimore for the worst record in the American League. Now they aren't just losing close games, but being blown out of games. Thanks to an awful starting rotation, a complete deterioration of the offense, and other unquantifiable aspects, the Indians are going to end the season falling at maximum velocity.

Fausto Carmona did pitch very well for a portion of today's start, but when you give up nine runs in the surrounding innings, that stretch is for all intents and purposes meaningless. He did, for once, make the opposing team earn their runs; he walked one, but gave up ten base hits and faced an incredible 29 hitters in his 5.2 innings pitched.

So, what's next for this team? After getting swept by a team playing out the string, a series against a team that has everything to play for. See you on Tuesday, if your stomach is strong enough.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Michael Brantley	.054	Fausto Carmona	-.333
Trevor Crowe	.006	Wyatt Toregas	-.062
		Shin-Soo Choo	-.049

Game 148: Athletics 2, Indians 1

Ryan — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 05:02:01 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Fire Everyone in This Picture!

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This doesn't excuse the Indians' play one iota, but C.B. Bucknor is a joke. He's been a joke for a long time, and I have no idea how he's still in the majors. His strike zone was consistently ludicrous tonight, remaining so until the last batter of the game, when he called out Kelly Shoppach on a pitch nowhere close to the strike zone. I just hope, for the sake of teams still in the race, that he isn't behind the plate for a meaningful game between now and the end of the season.

In contrast to last season's strong finish, this year's club is tanking in September. Grady Sizemore is out of the action, but the rest of the regulars are all healthy and available. All of them, except Andy Marte, who is losing playing time to Trevor Crowe and Niuman Romero, among others. The offense has gone to sleep, the starters have been mostly hideous, and the bullpen has pitched in an implosion or two this month. 21-year-old Brett Anderson took advantage of the anemic offense, allowing 4 hits and a walk in six inning, and striking out 10 Indians.

Matt LaPorta prevented yet another shutout by doubling home the first run of the game in the ninth inning. Shin-Soo Choo prevented another run by nabbing a sure home run earlier in the game.

Next Up: Sowers vs. Gonzalez, 4:05 PM (No TV)

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Michael Brantley	.040	Jamey Carroll	-.148
David Huff	.032	Jhonny Peralta	-.147
Jess Todd	.025	Trevor Crowe	-.102

Game 147: Athletics 5, Indians 2

Ryan — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 05:45:16 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Luis Valbuena (sort of) tags out Daric Barton in the eighth.

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The big blow of the game was Kurt Suzuki's three-run blast in the third inning. Justin Masterson had allowed his second run of the game earlier in the inning, and was pitching to Suzuki with two runners on, but was ahead of the Oakland catcher 0-2. But in a situation where pitchers try not to throw a strike, Masterson made a mistake, and it got hit out of the park. Justin lasted another inning, then left after throwing 93 pitches in four innings. He allowed 11 of the 22 batters he faced to reach base. And he's going to be one of the top three pitchers in next year's Opening Day rotation.

Lou Marson had three of Cleveland's six hits, one of which was a double. It sure looks like Marson will be on next year's roster, with his exact role to be dictated by what the Indians do with Kelly Shoppach. I still think it makes sense for the Indians to have the two compete for playing time, if not to get more production out of the catching position, then at least to avoid selling low on Shoppach.

Next Up: More late-night baseball. Huff vs. Anderson, 10:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Lou Marson	.057	Justin Masterson	-.248
Shin-Soo Choo	.043	Michael Brantley	-.094
Jensen Lewis	.041	Luis Valbuena	-.083

Game 145: Twins 5, Indians 4

Ryan — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 04:14:16 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Joe Mauer is having a season that Johnny Bench would be proud of.

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Throughout the season, I've been trying to look for any sign that Fausto Carmona is going to become a dominating pitcher again, or at least to transition to decent one. He's been healthy for the entire season, took a lengthy furlough in Arizona, and has had a very wide berth due to the non competitiveness of the team. Probably the only left to try is a new pitching coach, and that rarely works, so I've just about given up on him. The numbers this season tell a very stark and depressing story: 101.1 innings pitched, 63 strikeouts, 63 walks, 118 hits, 80 runs, which translates to a 6.48 ERA and a WHIP of 1.786, both of which are the highest in the American League for a pitcher with that amount of innings pitched. In other words, he's been the worst starting pitcher in baseball.

Tonight Carmona allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings, and it could have been much worse, since he allowed 12 base runners in his short start. He struggled to get through the first, and although he worked out of the inning allowing just a run, he'd already thrown more than 25 pitches. And this was a middle-of-the-road offense missing its second-best hitter.

The good news from the game was that Matt LaPorta had a good night. Matt went 2-for-4, including a ninth inning home run off Joe Nathan. LaPorta's really cooled off since his late August surge, and most likely due to teams starting to game plan against him. Now it's his turn to make adjustments against AL pitching, and hopefully tonight's at-bats are the start of that.

Finally, a word about Joe Mauer's season: wow.

Next Up: Laffey vs. Blackburn, 1:10 PM. Also, the last game the Indians will play in the Metrodome.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jamey Carroll	.114	Fausto Carmona	-.369
Travis Hafner	.091	Michael Brantley	-.201
Jose Veras	.068	Andy Marte	-.103