SB Nation - Josh Johnson

Who Actually Had the Biggest Comeback in 2009?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:18:43 -0000

It's award season, and the NL and AL Comeback Awards winners were announced earlier today. Congrats to Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals and Aaron Hill of the Blue Jays for winning the award. It is supposed to go to the players that "re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season."

I decided to take the balloting results and compare the player's WAR from this year, a recent low year and a recent high. Then. I took the total swing in WAR from the high to the low to this season's WAR value . For example Aaron Hill had 3.5 WAR in 2007, 0.5 in 2008 and then 4.2 this year for a total swing of 6.7 WAR ((3.5 WAR -0.5WAR)+(4.2 WAR - 0.5 WAR).

NL Comeback Award Comparison

Here is a comparison of the vote getters in the NL:

Voting Rank	Name and Team	High Year	Previous High (WAR)	Low Year	Lowest Between High and 2009 (WAR)	2009 WAR	Total Swing in WAR
1	Chris Carpenter, STL	2006	5.2	2007	0.2	5.6	10.4
2	Yovani Gallardo, MIL	2007	2.6	2008	0.4	2.8	4.6
3	Josh Johnson, FLA	2006	2.5	2007	0.2	5.3	7.4
4	Todd Helton, COL	2007	4.9	2008	1.5	3.5	5.4
5	Aaron Boone, HOU	2007	0.3	2008	-0.2	-0.3	0.4
6	Pedro Martinez, PHI	2007	1.2	2008	0.1	0.6	1.6
7	Luis Castillo, NYM	2007	2.4	2008	0.6	1.4	2.6
8	Jeff Weaver, LAD	2007	0.9	2008	0	0.6	1.5
9	Jonny Gomes, CIN	2007	0	2008	-1.2	0.8	3.2
10	Peter Moylan, ATL	2007	0.6	2008	0	1.5	2.1
11	Mike MacDougal, WSH	2007	0.2	2008	0.1	-0.2	-0.2

NL Observations and the AL Comparisons after the jump

NL observations:

The voters got the winner correct.
The voters also got the next four correct with the exception of Gallardo being a little high
The wasn't a whole lot to choose from after the first 4.
In two cases the players WAR value did not increase in 2009 from the previous years. In one case, Aaron Boone had open heart surgery this off season and even getting on the field should warrant some votes. I have no clue how Mike MacDougal end up with votes.

AL Comeback Award Comparison

Now here is a comparison of the vote getters in the AL:

Voting Rank	Name and Team	High Year	Previous High (WAR)	Low Year	Lowest Between High and 2009 (WAR)	2009 WAR	Total Swing in WAR
1	Aaron Hill, TOR	2007	3.5	2008	0.5	4.2	6.7
2	Victor Martinez, BOS	2007	5.1	2008	0.9	4.8	8.1
3	Michael Cuddyer, MIN	2007	2.1	2008	-0.2	2.1	4.6
4	Jorge Posada, NYY	2007	7.1	2008	0.8	4	9.5
5	Russell Branyan, SEA	2006	1.1	2007	0.5	2.8	2.9
6	Scott Podsednik, CWS	2005	1.4	2006	-0.5	1.5	3.9
7	Juan Rivera, LAA	2006	2.7	2008	-0.7	3.5	7.6
8	Rajai Davis, OAK	2007	1	2008	0.6	3.5	3.3
9	Andruw Jones, TEX	2007	3.6	2008	-0.9	0.7	6.1
10	Travis Hafner, CLE	2007	2.2	2008	-0.8	1.1	4.9
11	Fernando Rodney, DET	2007	0.7	2008	0.4	0.3	0.2

Observations on the voting for the AL Comeback Award:

The winner here did not have the largest swing in WAR, Hill was actually 4 in total swing behind Posada, Martinez, and Rivera.
The swing values in the AL were much more than in the NL on average. There was only one swing value of less than 2.9 in the AL, but 6 in the NL.
I need to look back over 5 years to see the comeback of Scott Podsednik. He has the following WAR values from 2005 to 2009: 1.4, -0.5,-0.1, -0.4, 1.5
Fernando Rodney, like Aaron Boone and Mike MacDougal got votes for actually being worse this year than last year.
There seems to be a lot of love for Russell Branyan despite being having the 9th highest swing in WAR.

All Star Game Lineups Based on Fantasy Value

RJK — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 19:00:23 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

Browse more photos »

All Star Game selections give us lots to complain about. Year after year we moan and complain about the selections yet we forget who won and who even played days after the game . Thus is life in a 12-24 hour news cycle. Would we remember things differently if the players were picked strictly because of their fantasy value? Probably not but let's do it anyways. For your mild amusement here are the All Star Game selections for the NL and AL based strictly on 5x5 fantasy value. Each player's current fantasy ranking is listed next to his name. The rankings are Yahoo Fantasy and go through Tuesday.

American League

C - Victor Martinez (25)

1B - Justin Morneau (5)

2B - Ian Kinsler (11)

SS - Jason Bartlett (23)

3B - Evan Longoria (13)

OF - Carl Crawford (4)

OF - Jason Bay (9)

OF - Torii Hunter (10)

SP - Zack Greinke (2)

SP - Roy Halladay (7)

SP - Edwin Jackson (16)

SP - Jeff Weaver (28)

SP - Justin Verlander (69)

RP - Andrew Bailey (41)

RP - Frank Francisco (53)

RP - Joe Nathan (74)

Reserves

OF Nelson Cruz (14)

1B Mark Teixeira (15)

OF Adam Jones (17)

2B Aaron Hill (24)

C Joe Mauer (31)

Notable AL absences include Johnny Damon (26), Adam Lind (30), Miguel Cabrera (37), Curtis Granderson (42), Erik Bedard (76), Ramon Ramirez (83), David Aardsma (103)

NL All Stars after the jump

National League

C - Bengie Molina (225) but really Pablo Sandoval (181) since we're talking about Yahoo leagues

1B - Albert Pujols (2)

2B - Chase Utley (29)

SS - Hanley Ramirez (47)

3B - Mark Reynolds (19)

OF - Raul Ibanez (1)

OF - Justin Upton (32)

OF - Ryan Braun (36)

SP - Dan Haren (8)

SP - Johan Santana (18)

SP - Chris Carpenter (21)

SP - Johnny Cueto (40)

SP - Josh Johnson (48)

RP - Jonathon Broxton (6)

RP - K-Rod (33)

RP - Heath Bell (35)

Reserves

1B - Adrian Gonzalez (16)

3B - David Wright (20)

OF - Matt Kemp (38)

OF - Carlos Beltran (39)

SS - Miguel Tejada (57)

Notable NL absences include Prince Fielder (22), Ryan Howard (27), Ryan Zimmerman (34), Adam Dunn (61), Trevor Hoffman (43), Yovani Gallardo (54), Ryan Franklin (56), Chad Billingsley (60)

Of course, this is not a perfect system. Some positions are stacked like NL 1B where Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder get edged out and others are thin like NL SS. Tejada's the back up but the third most valuable NL SS is Clint Barmes at 112. Real All Star games aren't the only place where deserving players have to sit at home while the likes of Junior Spivey and Mark Redman get to go. It turns out fake fantasy games have the same snub factor. WIth that said if Adrian Gonazalez doesn't make the real All Star team I'll never watch another one again.

Josh Johnson looking sharp

craig — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 18:41:49 -0000

Josh Johnson had it going in yesterday's game against Italy.

Johnson was so sharp Wednesday that manager Fredi Gonzalez said he was tempted to leave him on the mound for another inning. Johnson needed only 51 pitches to complete four innings.

Ah, things are coming together.