SB Nation - Masa Kobayashi

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

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This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

Pitcher Purgatory

afh4 — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:38:10 -0000

As always, click on the panels for larger images.

Transactions: The Wheel of Relievers

Ryan — Tue, 19 May 2009 03:07:28 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

David Huff, the latest in a long list of recent pitching moves.

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If you haven't heard, the Indians have had some problems with their bullpen. And in the absence of any real fixes, the Indians have been trying anything and everything in the hopes of blundering onto at least a couple of hidden gems.

5-6-09

Optioned LHP Rafael Perez to Columbus (AAA)

Released RHP Juan Salas

Purchased the Contract of RHP Matt Herges and Recalled him from Columbus (AAA)

Rafael Perez is I think the epicenter of this year's bullpen disaster. He's struggled from Opening Day, and because of his very good history of relief, not to mention being (until recently) the only left-hander in the bullpen, got many chances to give up key runs. He was at times the only thing preventing last year's bullpen from total collapse, throwing 76.1 innings behind a very good starting staff. This year, without a competent Perez or as good a starting staff, we've seen a total bullpen collapse. He's made four appearances in Columbus, but the main work is being done with personal instruction, not game action.

The Indians claimed Juan Salas off waivers late in Spring Training, but he didn't pitch a game in the organization, and the Indians didn't even bother to send him through waivers.

Matt Herges has probably been the best of the bullpen call-ups. His best years as a reliever were with the Dodgers around the turn of the century, but he had a nice 2007 season for the pennant-winning Rockies. In 2008 it looked like he was through, allowing 79 hits in 64.1 innings, and could only sign a minor-league deal with the Indians. His few appearances for the Clippers weren't that impressive, but the beggarly Indians couldn't afford to be choosy. And at that point, they weren't looking for dominance, just innings. Herges has given up two home runs in his 5 appearances with the Indians, but his strikeout/walk ratio is 10:1, and those gaudy numbers have earned him a prominent position in the bullpen. For this week.

5-7-09

Designated RHP Vinnie Chulk for Assignment

Outrighted IF Tony Graffanino to Columbus (AAA)

Recalled LHP Jeremy Sowers from Columbus (AAA)

This move was supposed to help shore up the bullpen, for Sowers was to take the place of Aaron Laffey in the rotation, and Laffey was to move to the bullpen. In theory it was a terrible tactical move, for the Indians were not only putting more pressure on the bullpen by downgrading the rotation, but not getting the most out of Laffey, who would be throwing less innings. In reality, the Indians didn't have any credible options in the bullpen, so they had to turn a starter into a reliever. For the most part, Laffey has given the Indians what they were looking for: he's gone multiple innings when called upon, saving what little effectiveness is in the bullpen for more higher-leverage situations. But now the Indians have a problem with their rotation, which we'll look at later.

Vinnie Chulk was impressive in March, but not in April and May, when the games count in the standings.

5-12-09

Reinstated IF Jamey Carroll from 15-day Disabled List

Optioned IF Josh Barfield to Columbus (AAA)

Carroll's return to Cleveland precipitated the Jhonny-to-third experiment, since the Indians now had good depth at second base and a need to improve their infield defense. Unfortunately, this meant games with Mark DeRosa at first or Ryan Garko in the outfield, which had the opposite effect at those positions. With the DH available, there should be no reason why the Indians can't put Garko and DeRosa in the lineup without resorting to crazy positional calisthenics. Of course that means David Dellucci sits on the bench, but I don't think the offense will suffer too much if that happens.

5-14-09

Optioned LHP Jeremy Sowers to Columbus (AAA)

Outrighted RHP Vinnie Chulk to Columbus (AAA)

Signed RHP Luis Vizcaino to a major-league contract

I can't recall too many times the Indians signing an in-season free agent and bringing him straight to the majors, but the bullpen being what it is, the rare is quickly becoming the commonplace. Vizcaino has fit right in, giving up a walk-off home run in his first appearance.

While Aaron Laffey has given the Indians some innings in the bullpen, Sowers wasn't able to do the same in the rotation. It's now become rather clear that Jeremy's stuff doesn't translate well from AAA (where he's pitched well this season) to the majors. Maybe a move to the National League would be a good move for the Indians and for Jeremy.

5-17-09

Transferred LHP Scott Lewis from the 15-day Disabled List to the 60-day Disabled List (left forearm)

Optioned LHP Tony Sipp to Columbus (AAA)

Outrighted RHP Masa Kobayashi to Columbus (AAA)

Purchased the Contract of LHP David Huff and Recalled him from Columbus (AAA)

Purchased the Contract of RHP Greg Aquino and Recalled him from Columbus

The big blow is Scott Lewis' lingering arm injury. He experienced pain when rehabbing his arm, and has been shut down for now. So with Lewis out, Sowers not effective, and Laffey still needed in the bullpen, the Indians brought up David Huff, their best pitching prospect, who's probably not a finished product, but a much better option than anybody else in Columbus.

Tony Sipp was fantastic for his first couple appearances, but has had some disastrous appearances after that. He's struck out 9, but walked 8, and relievers who can't throw strikes don't stick around long even if their stuff is fantastic.

Masa Kobayashi was in recent weeks just taking up a roster spot, as he was completely unusable. Maybe he'll regroup in Columbus.

Greg Aquino had been Columbus' closer, and was therefore a prime candidate to become a Cleveland Indian. He gave up one run in eight innings with the Clippers.

Game 29: Red Sox 13, Indians 3

afh4 — Fri, 08 May 2009 02:01:25 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

That's the Bucky Dent game! No, scratch that. That's just an Indians' game.

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For five innings, it seemed like last night had been a turning point in the Indians' season; Jeremy Sowers, newly minted in the rotation, was pitching very well, leading 2-1 coming into the fifth and making the Sowers-Laffey-Chulk Affair (think XYZ Affair) look like a boon, not a boondoggle. Then, Sowers turned back into Sowers, putting six straight men on base (there was an intentional walk in there but are we really giving bonus points for that?). He was followed by Masa, who acted like Masa, and then finally Matt Herges, who's behavior I don't have a read on but seemed to stay true to his personality. 15 batters later, it was 13-3 and 2009 had turned back into 2009.

The night ended at 13-3, with the Red Sox pounding out 13 hits for Feng Shui symmetry. There's not a lot else to say; the pitching was horrible, the offense not much better. It looked like games we've been watching all year. The only notable point here is that Sowers continues to look like some kind of movie subplot where an awkward kid is forced to play baseball by bullies and ends up pulling at his uniform all the time. I'm not sure how that movie ends but it probably involves an animal saving Sowers. No animals appeared tonight and Sowers most assuredly does not have good baseball face.

At this point, the Indians player and management have to be searching for answers, however, it's unclear that there are any more to be had. The Indians have spent most of their bullets-LaPorta is here, Laffey is in the bullpen (?!?) and the only piece of legitimate pitching depth left unused in AAA is David Huff. That is, unless you're interested in 40-manning guys like Greg Aquino, Randy Newsom, or Frank Hermann.

The only radical pitching moves left are Rondon, Huff or an option outside the organization. The Indians have trading chips-there's a lot of position player depth and, bizarrely, Andy Marte could conceivably become an integral figure in an Indians' move. It will almost certainly be a long night for Shapiro, Antonetti, and Wedge; we shall see what the future holds.

Next Up: Verlander vs. Lee, back at the P[redacted]. Tomorrow at 7:05 ET.

Early Weekend 6-pack (5/7/09)

APV — Thu, 07 May 2009 20:14:01 -0000

Another early weekend

1. Bullpens are complicated things

Below is a list of the Indians relievers sorted by gmLI, which is the leverage at the moment they get brought into the game. Sipp is new enough that I think we can throw him out, but with the exception of Rafael Perez, it is not too surprising a list given preseason expectations. Furthermore, and maybe an encourage note, that with the exception of Jensen Lewis, the pitchers underlying peripherals (as indicated by FIP) suggest they are better than their performance (measured by ERA) at this point, and that Wedge has been using them correctly. Stomp is a bit scary, though. (pLI gives average leverage usage)

Name	FIP	ERA	gmLI	pLI
J. Lewis	8.30	5.93	2.57	1.83
T. Sipp	6.38	3.60	1.88	1.53
K. Wood	4.08	7.20	1.57	1.90
R. Betancourt	4.40	5.14	1.07	1.06
J. Smith	3.66	7.11	1.06	0.74
R. Perez	6.28	15.19	0.86	1.00
V. Chulk	6.10	3.75	0.85	0.93
M. Kobayashi	6.60	3.72	0.29	0.18

2. I think Cleveland could start giving away Masa's innings as a promotional giveaway at the ticket gates as a way of getting people into ~~Jacobs~~ Progressive Field.

Pitch to a real live major league player! (see above)

3. Asdrubal Cabrera is good, and might be really good

Noted without comment:

Asdrubal Cabrera (age 23): .333/.416/.434

R. Alomar (age 23): .296/.354/.436

B. Larkin (age 24):.296/.347/.429

H. Ramirez (age 23): .332/.386/.562

A. Trammell (age 25): .319/.385/.471

E. Renteria (age 24): .278/.346/.423

4. Looking for minor league bullpen names?

Here's another one to keep an eye on: David Roberts

5. Fausto's power sinker seems to be a little inconsistent

Fangraphs now has all of the pitchFX data in graphical form, viewable by individual game. Here is Fausto's movement chart from his outing against the Yankees (below). It looks to me like he's not consistently getting sharp horizontal and vertical movement. His average power sinkers till looks good, but there appears to be a lot of spread in the data. Hard to know exactly how this quantitatively compares to other pitchers, but something to keep an eye on.

6. I'm taking the 6th thought with me out the door (on my way to watch the Tribe in person tonight).

via www.weepingradish.biz

The Breakdown: April 6-19

Jay — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:41:10 -0000

Record: 4–9
Overall: 4–9
Scoring: 83–87
Old Mood: 6.2
New Mood: 2.6

	W	L	%	GB
Chicago	7	5	.583	-
Detroit	7	5	.583	-
Kansas City	7	5	.583	-
Minnesota	7	7	.500	1.0
Cleveland	4	9	.308	3.5

@ Texas: Lost 9-1, Lost 8-5, Lost 12-8
Toronto: Lost 13-7, Lost 5-4, Won 8-4
@ Kansas CIty: Lost 4-2, Lost 9-3, Won 5-4
@ New York: Won 10-2, Lost 6-5, Won 22-4, Lost 7-3

"The Breakdown" is a summary of the club's performance and major developments over a two-week period, and it will appear on Monday or Tuesday, every other week. At any given moment, we tend to be viewing the season mostly in two timeframes — the first being the last 48 hours, today's game and maybe yesterday's, and the whole season cumulatively from the beginning. The most accessible stats we look at reinforce this point of view — all the main stat pages are showing season-to-date, and we check out the box score to see what happened yesterday. In doing so, we miss a lot of the ebb and flow of the season for the team, and especially for individual players. We patch together vague narratives later on, much of it from inaccurate memories — "Peralta was blocked by Cora," "Francisco was amazing last year" — only occasionally making note of anything in a context larger than a day or two, and missing many in-season developments entirely. It's my hope that the two-week context will produce less emphasis on fluke performances and give more of a sense of in-season trends developing for each player.

THE BIG STORY: The club pitched very badly and lost a bunch of games as a result. The club was outscored 42-21 in the first four games and lost a squeaker in the fifth. Over the next eight games, the club went 4-4 and outscored opponents 58-40, but of course that 18-run margin is only due to one game. With several blowouts in both directions, what record should this team have? In attempt to figure that out, I lined up all 13 games in order of our runs scored, and then lined them up again according to our runs allowed. Here's what those two lined look like when placed one atop the other, like a scoreboard:

INDIANS	22	10	8	8	7	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	1
"cowboys"	13	12	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	4	4	4	2

Note that while the average score of these games was 6.7 to 6.4, the median score was 6–5 (favoring the opposition in both cases). This is actually fine for the offense, who are on their way to being one of the league's best offenses either way. It isn't so fine for the pitching. If you look at it this way, the Indians arguably deserve only a 1–10–2 record, or 2–11 if we split the ties. The Pythagorean record is 6–7, based on the 83–87 run differential. Or we could just toss out the highest and lowest totals from each line — the extreme outliers — which would give us a run differential of 60–72. Bottom line, I think this is one case where the actual record of 4–9 more or less reflects the team's quality of play.

First, the starters.

Games 1-3: 22 ER in 11 IP — 18.00 ERA, 3.7 innings per start
Games 4-9: 22 ER in 31.2 IP — 6.25 ERA, 5.3 innings per start
Games 10-13: 9 ER in 23 IP — 3.52 ERA, 5.8 innings per start

What we're seeing here is mainly that Lee, Carmona and Pavano have all shown some degree of progression from their trio of tranwrecks in Arlington, to merely poor showings against Toronto and K.C., to a very fine showing in New York. Note that the starters allowed as many runs in the first three games as in the next six, in about one-third the number of innings. Even when the club was 0–5, track records suggested that the rotation was going to iron itself out — even Pavano, who has always been a reasonably effective starter when healthy. I don't know what the deal was in that first start, but if he wasn't injured — and it appears he wasn't — then it appears that that was, you know, just one of those flukey, terrible days. Pavano might not make many starts, but for those who have read the back of his baseball card and not just the back page of the Post, he really has little in common with Jason Johnson. Pavano is much more a part of our injury risk than our performance risk, and Carmona may well emerge as the more intractable problem in the rotation. While we have the rotation depth to absorb a few injuries and burnouts here and there, asking our Parade of Filler to cover the #2 spot in the rotation as well seems like too much of a stretch.

Still, the starters have generally and unsurprisingly begun to make their journey back to reasonable run prevention and lasting a reasonable number of innings, and outside of Arlington, the rotation has really not been terrible — but the bullpen has. Did a bunch of extra innings really stress our best middle relievers into being terrible, or is this just another, horrifying example of the unpredictability of relievers? One would think that in a series of blowouts, the extra work burden would fall upon the fifth, sixth and seventh guys in the bullpen, yet Kobayashi, Jackson and Smith are not the ones who have struggled — not by a longshot. Perez, Betancourt and Lewis have pitched a grand total of 21 innings. If we expected them to go 210 IP on the season — 70 IP each — then by now, they should have thrown about 17 IP. Did those extra 4 IP really push them over the brink from being good to being terrible?

I'm not buying it, and I'm sorry to say, the truth is probably worse. These guys are simply struggling, as all but the most elite relievers sometimes do, and they may or may not be able to straighten themselves out. I'm not saying that the rotation's disastrous performance against the Rangers didn't start the season on an off-kilter note, but whatever is wrong with our nominal "setup men" may not be fixed by a stabilized rotation. The Indians rotation and lineup generally have performed like a 90-win team over nearly all of the last four seasons of play, with the bullpen's high-leverage performances representing bulk of the difference between 78 and 97 wins more often than not. It's only a handful of innings, and only half our bullpen looks broken for the moment, but it's a troubling way to start regardless.

We have given 3.5 games of ground in a season where our projectable talent gave us a margin of five or ten wins over our rivals. We have, in essence, turned a solidly favorable season into a projected dogfight in the space of just two weeks.

IN OTHER NEWS: Travis Hafner shocked and delighted Indians fans with a full-on 2006-esque assault on opposing pitchers, at one point smacking three doubles and three home runs over just five games. While this proves nothing (and settles no argument about his contract), his early outburst is very unlikely (less than 10% probability) if Hafner's true skill level is merely at his 2007 level, and profoundly unlikely if he's really no better now than he was a year ago. We probably can never stop worrying about his shoulder problems, which obviously can reduce him to a useless player if he's ever re-injured. But at least there is now significant evidence that apart from health issues, he's still something of a Scary Monster — and considering how little evidence of that we'd seen over the past 32 months, that's definitely big news.

Scott Lewis looked good for a few innings but went down with an arm injury, and he evidently was not disclosing arm pain to the club after winning a rotation spot in spring training. Aaron Laffey returned to claim his rightul spot in the rotation and looked pretty good in his first start.

Finally, the Indians had the pleasure of spoiling the grand opening of New Jackass Stadium, handing the Yankees an embarrasssing 10–2 drubbing in their home debut, which was also the home debut for C.C. Sabathia, who is something of a New Jackass Stadium himself. The Indians hammered the Yankees 22–4 just two days later, including a record-setting 14-run second inning. Yankees fans seethed as Sizemore and Cabrera smacked the first two grand slams in their new ballpark, while Carl Pavano had the temerity to show up his old club with a quality start, and Justin Chamberlain provided more evidence that the Indians simply have his number. The Indians outscored the Yankees by 21 runs, adding to concerns that the stadium's best seats are unsaleable, while some kind of jet-stream effect seemed to turn soft flyballs to right-center into home runs with alarming regularity. It was, all in all, not the debut the Yankees were looking for, and despite emerging with merely a split in the four-game series, it certainly felt like a series win.

WHO FED IT: Victor Martinez exploded out of the box, thriving in his new split-role at 1B and C. Not only was his overall .358/.435/.642 line uniformly stellar, he hardly has had a single bad day so far, producing an OPS of 983 or better in each of the four series played. Asdrubal, on the other hand, started off with a pair of O-fers but has an insane 1130 OPS over the last ten games. (He's still young and could still have some setbacks, but if you told me he was going to make the next five All-Star Games, I wouldn't call you crazy.) Sizemore (959) and Choo (953) both picked up right where they left off in 2008 (aside from a couple of troubling defensive miscues by Choo), and Shoppach (870) and even Garko (914) are making the best of a time-sharing arrangement. Hafner led the club with a .667 slugging average.

Joe Smith more or less wowed us with sidearming goodness, striking out four and allowing just one run over his first 17 batters. He also induced six groundballs and stranded four out of five inherited runners. Masa Kobayashi, a ticking DFA bomb by nearly all accounts, came up big in 6.2 IP and now leads the club with both his 1.35 ERA and his 1.05 WHIP, as 27 opposing batters managed just two singles and a double. Chulk and Laffey also made nice debuts. Kerry Wood lived up to his billing by striking out 7 of the 13 batters he faced. He allowed three of the first five batters he faced to reach base in his first game as an Indian, but he hasn't allowed a baserunner since. Absolute best: Victor. Relative best: Hafner. Lots of folks subscribe to the under-600-over-900 theory on Hafner, and among those, lots of those would have predicted under-600 if forced to make a choice. Relative to reasonable expectations, Hafner's performance over his first 10 games is a shocker.

WHO ATE IT: The entire rotation, led by Carmona and Pavano. Perez was twice as awful as completely terrible -- by which I mean, Jensen Lewis was completely terrible with a 8.10 ERA, and Perez was twice as awful at 16.71. Ben Francisco has been one of the game's worst position players this side of Cody Ransom, combining a .368 slugging average, a 4.7% walk rate, and too often looked like he was playing left field for the first time in his life. Absolute worst: Carmona, but Perez is close. Relative worst: Perez.

Game One: Oh, Hamburgers

Jay — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 22:28:09 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Wha hoppen? I can't do my work!

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Rangers 9, Indians 1

The Indians have produced two Cy Young winners in a row; pride of the organization. And now, two years in a row, our reigning Cy Young has totally soiled the sheets on Opening Day. (In fact, both of those guys soiled the sheets today.)

Say it with me: It's a long season.

The story of this game is simple. Cliff Lee got nailed above the elbow by a line drive comebacker in the second inning, and though he evidently was not hurt, the Rangers scored four runs on six baserunners that inning. Lee bounced back to shut down the Rangers over the next two frames, striking out four, but he ran out of steam in the 5th, allowing three more runs followed by three flyball outs.

The Indians lineup found our old friend Kevin Millwood evidently in top form and never mounted a serious challenge against him.

Let's look for some silver linings:

Lee doesn't appear to be hurt.
Victor's hamstring made it through Opening Day intact, for the first time since 2006.
A slimmed-down Hafner looks like a threat on the basepaths!
Barry Larkin picked Carmona to win the 2009 Cy Young — and, presumably, to soil the sheets on Opening Day next year.
Masa didn't pitch his way off the team.
No Indians hitter made more than three outs at the plate.

The best way to look it at it, I think, is that three months of deathless spring training got extended by a couple of days. This was just a spring training tuneup for Lee, and for Steel Rafi and Stomp. One more chance to see if Masa can keep it together and break camp without getting DFA'ed. And the lineup? They're just bored, waiting for the season to start.

True, we also spotted our divisional rivals a game in the standings, but more likely than not, we can afford that. We'll try this again on Wednesday.

Say it with me again: It's a long season.

Transactions

Ryan — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 03:48:56 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

~~Edward Mujica~~

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Traded RHP ~~Edward Mujica~~ to the San Diego Padres for a Player to be Named Later

Once upon a time, this right-handed reliever dominated minor-league hitters; in 2006, he gave up 0 earned runs in a 19-inning stretch in Akron, then did very well in Buffalo (33 IP, 29 SO, 5 BB), and finished off his season with a solid 18.3 innings with the Indians.

After that things just weren't same. He got several opportunities for spot work in 2007, but didn't stick around long for any of them. Last season his stays were longer, not because he was any better, but because everyone else in the bullpen was just as bad.

Now he's gone, and largely forgotten, traded appropriately for a player to be named later. He was out of options, and was knocked around pretty good in Spring Training (10.0 IP, 13 H, 9 ER, 5 HR), so the only questions left to be answered were how and when the Indians would part ways with him.

Assigned RHP Vinnie Chulk to Minor League Camp

Vinnie was one of the bright spots of camp, outpitching his competitors for the bullpen. But the Indians, with their shaky rotation, were looking for more length in their seventh reliever, so Vinnie will start the season in Columbus. If he isn't in the majors by mid-May, he becomes a free agent, so I would imagine he's the first up should there be an injury or ineffectiveness. Or when the Indians release Masa Kobayashi.

RHP Jae Kuk Ryu Assigned back to the San Diego Padres; Indians Waiver Claim Voided by Major League Baseball

The Indians apparently didn't think Ryu was physically ready to pitch, so they pulled the plug on the waiver claim. The Padres have since released him.

Pecota '08: The Pitchers

afh4 — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 04:27:32 -0000

Following up on a look back at the Indians hitters and their relationship to Pecota last season, we take a look at the pitchers. The only "BP" stat I'm going to be relaying is (as defined by BP):

VORP, again, is Value Over Replacement Player. A pitcher's VORP is the number of extra runs that a replacement level pitcher would have allowed to score if he pitched the same number of innings as this pitcher, based on his translated statistics.

Rafael Betancourt	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	55	13	53	3.31	16.1
ACTUAL	71	25	64	5.07	4.9

Comment: The whole thing fell apart for Raffy-R in 2008. He didn't have his control, gave up 11 homeruns after only giving up 4 the year before and saw his comps list go from Keith Foulke, Trevor Hoffman, John Wetteland, and Tom Henke to Keith Foulke, Enrique Romo, and Justin Speier.

The change in comps here is especially instructive; before last season, PECOTA said Betancourt coud either dominate into his late 30s (Hoffman and Henke), implode and disappear (Wetteland) or implode and hang on for two more seasons (Foulke). Apparently, Rafael chose the final option. Obviously, he's not going the injury route like Foulke but it still doesn't bode well. Relievers rolling into their mid-30s who fall apart tend to stay fallen apart.

The Speier thing is really compelling as well; he and Betancourt are about 18 months apart in age, both have had short runs of dominance at advanced ages, and both exploded in 2008. Now they comp for each other.

Joe Borowski	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	51.2	16	41	4.21	8.3
ACTUAL	16.2	12	24	7.54	-3.2

Comment: We all owe Borowski a debt of gratitude for quickly evaporating instead of puddling all over the furniture for another 2.5 months. Flights of angels sing thee to thy rest, sweet Joe.

Paul Byrd	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	115	24	52	5.19	5.6
ACTUAL	180	34	82	4.60	21.1

Comment: I was going to lavish praise on Paul Byrd for throwing 180 innings at such an advanced age but then I looked up how many guys had done it. So, instead, let's just stop and think about Phil Niekro throwing 342 innings in a single season at age 40.

Seriously, is that a typo? I know he's a knuckler and all but, 342? What?

Fausto Carmona	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	183.2	62	123	4.13	27.9
ACTUAL	120.2	70	58	5.44	-1.1

Comment: I think the fact that Fausto was actually worse than a replacement player, that is a AAAA player, aka Brian Slocum Bullington Jr, says about all we need to know about 2008. His number one comp is still Scott Erickson, which sort of seems like a nightmare scenario. However, something about 2008 made Kevin Brown appear on Fausto's list. This can only be a good thing but I find it a little intriguing; I had never conisdered that PECOTA was using GO or FO in their comps but they must be, right?

Kevin Brown! We have Kevin Brown!

Masahide Kobayashi	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	39.2	13	27	4.74	2.9
ACTUAL	55.2	14	35	4.52	5.9

Comment: If Kobayashi had been used as PECOTA anticipated, that is if he'd only thrown 40 innings, his final line would've included 11 walks, 26 strikeouts and a 3.15 ERA. This is notable because PECOTA had figured out his BB and SO rates but, more than that, because Masa never should've been throwing 55 innings in the first place. Over his last 19 appearances, Kobayashi had an 8.04 ERA.

I'm a little concerned about the Indians cutting bait with Masa this spring; I don't see why he can't contribute to a bullpen at a level at least comparable to Vinne Chulk. It'd be a real shame if the Indians have in fact broken Kobayashi after just one season but I guess if you couldn't throw 55 IP, you probably didn't belong to start with.

Aaron Laffey	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	159.1	58	88	4.58	15.1
ACTUAL	93.2	31	43	4.23	9.0

Comment: Tom Glavine is one of Laffey's comps, which is kind of cool I guess. Aaron's youth has been his smoke-screen for the last two years, and deservedly so. Being above replacement in the majors at ages 22 and 23 is a pretty decent trick. Now, however, Laffey needs to ascend to, at the least, the role of innings-eating groundballer, both for his sake and the Indians' playoff hopes.

Weirdly, PECOTA is predicting a .330 BABIP for Aaron in 2009. I don't know what that means.

Cliff Lee	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	107.2	42	77	5.06	7.3
ACTUAL	223	34	170	2.54	76.5

Comment: There's no precedent for what Lee did.

Jensen Lewis	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	47	20	42	4.01	9.2
ACTUAL	66	27	52	3.82	13.5

Comment: Lewis is starting to bore me; he's fun and might have a 2.75 ERA season somewhere in his future but I'm not prepared to say that's in 2009 or 2014. His stuff is really not great according to people who evaluate that sort of thing and I think that's going to cause him to bounce around that 4.00 ERA benchmark, mixing good outings and bad. I think we (LGT) have a tendency to get sort of overly-jazzed about bullpen arms: they're fun for game threads and they often look really incredible for short stretches. With Lewis, the reality is that he's a 25 year old reliever with just OK stuff.

He sort of defines that mystical 'Throw it and see if it sticks arm' that the Indians front office has focused on; there's the potential for a great season and there's a potential for a really terrible one, with absolutely no guarantee of mediocrity.

Does that mean I don't love him? Naw. I still love love him.

Rafael Perez	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	74.1	28	57	3.78	16.1
ACTUAL	76	23	86	3.54	17.0

Comment: Picking from the comp lists again, Perez is shaping up to be Sparky Lyle. I don't know much about Sparky but the numbers look about right. In contrast to Lewis, this is an arm that deserves genuine excitement. Perez has two dominant relievers with sub 3 career ERAs on his list: Lyle and Dave Smith and, of course, Perez has the stuff.

Like many relievers, Perez has sort of a weird career trajectory; he's going to be 27 this year which sort of creeps up on you. He represents a best case scenario of sorts for it boy Josh Tomlin, if we ignore Tomlin's handedness.

C.C. Sabathia	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	215	53	179	3.38	47.6
ACTUAL	253	59	251	2.70	77.4

Comment: The big boy did all that and then he did some more. For those who hope for this sort of thing, there's not great predictors for a total collapse out of Sabathia; he's comping Drysdale, Carlton, Clemens, and Viola. All those guys were very good through at least their early thirties, and Charles Caresten is only 28.

I don't really want to talk about him any more. Thanks for Brantley and LaPorta.

Jeremy Sowers	IP	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
PECOTA	131.2	46	66	5.45	2.1
ACTUAL	109.1	39	64	5.58	-4.9

Comment: If I can't say anything nice, I won't say anything at all.

Trade Everyone! - The End

Jay — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 03:07:25 -0000

TRADE EVERYONE! an epic survey in six parts
1	The Starters by Ryan
2	The Infield by Jay
3	Wait. What? by Andrew (afh4)
4	The Prospects by Adam (APV)
5	The Outfield + Pronk by Ryan
6	The End by Jay

So who's left, anyway? Well, let's see what Jayson Stark is saying ...

With CC Sabathia and Blake now dealt away, the one player the Indians are now most actively marketing is Paul Byrd.

Okay ... duh. Of course they're most actively marketing Byrd — he's the only guy left in his walk year, i.e., the only guy whose remaining contract is utterly pointless on a noncontender's roster. But Ryan already talked about Byrd — don't you have any other info for us, Jayson?

Clubs that have spoken with them say they're willing to listen to talks on anybody on the roster and are "open to anything."

Mm, really? Open to anything? Why am I skeptical of this?

THE CATCHERS: Some interesting things have happened with catchers. Victor Martinez went down last month, perhaps showing some signs of his impending thirtyness, or his aggressive use over the past few seasons, or both, or (in fairness) neither. Kelly Shoppach stepped in and immediately started showing what we here and the front office have been saying for two years: This guy is a big-league starting catcher, more than reasonably robust at the plate and outstanding behind it. At the same time, we have the Yankees' starting catcher going down for the season, and the Red Sox starting catcher just plain sucking — and both teams are in the heat of a three-team fight for the AL East, and both teams are laden with exactly the knid of ready-for-the-majors, high-ceiling players we need.

Could one of these teams use a well-healed super-backup — or, dare we even ask, a new superstar starter? If the Indians were really open for anything, could we even be looking at a Johanesque bidding war, you know, before that bidding war dried up into nothing? It's a startling thought, mostly because it's not clear why it isn't happening. Oh, sure, Victor has yet to come back from the DL, so in that sense it's not an issue. But you have to wonder, just how far could Shapiro's PR-immune decision-making go? Would he seriously have entertained the notion of Victor Martinez, among the very coriest of his core players, willfully shipped off to wear pinstripes?

If not Victor, why not Kelly? Under contract for three more seasons, about to hit arbitration. Oh, sure, the Indians may finally be on the verge of giving Shoppach a substantial share of starts behind the plate — recognizing perhaps belatedly that if Garko's upside is only 100 points of OPS higher, that's not a good reason to put him in the lineup over Shoppach (with Victor playing 1B). We don't know how ready the club is to go in that direction, but if they're not, wouldn't it be kind of dumb not to sell high on Shoppach?

THE RELIEVERS: It's a little strange to me that this topic has generated any significant debate, because there's one big, giant, obvious reason why we're not trading any of our relievers: They suck.

Tempting as it is to leave it at that, I'll delve further. Relievers are funny. They're scarce, and yet nobody really wants to pay all that much for one except for Wayne Krivsky, and his ass got fired. So when you've got one who's pretty good, or might be pretty good, and who isn't in a walk year, it's tough to part with him, because they're scarce, and because you wouldn't get all that much anyway. And we already dumped all the ones who would have been free agents.

Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, they're special, or they seem like they could be special, or anyway they used to be special, or they sure used to look like they were special, and who the hell knows, anyway? Is someone knocking down our door with some big offer for these guys? No? Well, then, we're not going to just give them away, are we? And is there a king's ransom, or even a minor duke's ransom, waiting out there for Mastny or Mujica or Slocum? Somehow I doubt it.

So that leaves Betancourt and Kobayashi. Why anyone thinks we could get more than a bag of balls for Betancourt, I have no idea. Kobayashi, maybe, but this is actually beside the point. The last couple of seasons, Shapiro has tried to stockpile bullpen depth, and he's still at it, sneaking a young, live arm into each of this month's two major deals. That's one kind of reliever he likes to stockpile.

The other type of bullpen acquisition he likes is a veteran with a history of past late-inning success, perhaps with some recent difficulties driving down his market price, and yet someone for whom there's some reason to believe might just bounce back and be effective. Who fits this exact profile, going into the 2009 season? Betancourt and Kobayashi, that's who. And what kind of contract does Shapiro like to sign with a reliever of this profile? A reasonably small one-year deal with a club option for a second year. And what's the contractual status of Betancourt and Kobayashi going into the 2009 season? Each one has a reasonably small one-year guarantee for 2009 with a club option for 2010.

So you see, if Shapiro dealt either one of these guys, he'd just have to go out and find another guy just like him. I personally am not at all eager to see the club sell low on Betancourt, nor do I think we have any depth to deal from in the bullpen in general.

SO WHAT, THEN: Well ... not much. We will get Byrd through revocable waivers and make a deal next month — though after his sterling start last night, maybe some team will decide to move aggressively on him and not risk a blocked waiver situation. It shouldn't take much. But as for "open to anything," I somehow doubt it, because the consistent thread across this whole series is that it's hard to imagine getting equal value out of anyone other than our walk-year free agents. Consider:

We traded three months of C.C. Sabathia for six years of a blue-chip hitting prospect, plus two or three other good prospects. How could we get equal value for Cliff Lee, who has almost five times as many starts left under his current contract as Sabathia? Can we get 24 years of a blue-chip prospect, plus 10 to 12 other good prospects? Of course not.
We traded two months of Casey Blake for six-years of another terrific prospect — a guy who instantly becomes not only our top catcher prospect, but arguably also our best 3B prospect and our best skill-position prospect overall — plus another guy with possible value. Blake is a solid contributor, not a star, and if he's worth all that, what is a guy like Peralta worth, under contract through 2011?
And in the extreme example, Grady Sizemore, who would today be projected as high as $100 million in on-field value (per the "MORP" valuation system) through the end of his current contract in 2012, added to his marginal contract value of around $75 million. Even if we compelled a team to take Hafner and his contract along with Sizemore and his, how in the world is any team supposed to come up with another $140 million in real value to send back to us, while sending only prospects?

It's tempting to blame the lack of more significant, team-shaping moves on a lack of vision and creativity on the part of our front office — if they're so damned smart, this line of thinking goes, then why can't they pull off those cool, out-of-the-box, seismic-shift trades like Billy Beane does? That topic bears more exploration, but truthfully it belongs in the offseason, not at the trade deadline. In-season, by far the best trade value lies in moving walk-year guys to contending teams for top-tier minor leaguers — you're trading a guy out of a low-leverage situation into a high-leverage situation, not unlike trading an out-of-position CF to another team where he actually can play CF.

Just as a relief ace is most valuable when pitching in the most high-leverage innings, the best players are most valuable in the most high-leverage games, i.e., in a tight pennant race. On the flip side, games beyond the current season are just as high-leverage for the Indians as they are for the current season's contenders, so for players who aren't in their walk years, there's a much smaller value difference to be leveraged. It is hard to overestimate the value of an established major leaguer who is still well within his peak years and under a team-friendly contract — a description that fits almost all of the Indians' most desirable remaining players. That type of player doesn't get traded a whole lot, because it's hard to trade guys like that except for other guys like that — and you're not going to get one of those players when your trading partner is in a pennant race.

So this ultimately becomes a topic for the offseason — how much reshaping does this team need to do for 2009, and does this front office have the creativity to do it? Having assembled a club chock full of "the right guys," Shapiro has rarely shown the emotional detachment to move one of those guys when he didn't have to, with the notable exception of Coco Crisp. And by "when he didn't have to," I mean when the player wasn't in his walk year. Moving a guy in his walk year doesn't take fortitude, it just takes not being an idiot. (Yes, I know — cue the long list of idiots, led by the Orioles.)

So we don't really know how capable Shapiro is of moving one of his guys — a guy like Martinez, Peralta or Lee — and it seems unlikely that he seriously considered moving Casey Blake last offseason, or Sabathia for that matter. After all, it's one thing to be "listening to everyone" and "open to anything" — which may be merely an Intellectually Correct posture — but it's quite another thing to actually move significant players when it isn't the obvious call.

Again, that question is more for the offseason. For the moment, we don't get to trade everyone, as satisfying a thought as that might be. We only get to trade Paul Byrd.