SB Nation - Ezequiel Carrera

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Seattle Mariners

Charlie — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:24:39 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Wladimir Balentien could be shipped out of Seattle before the trading deadline.

Buyers or sellers?

If you frame it as "buy" vs. "sell," then it's a tricky question indeed, because on the one hand, the Mariners are only five games out of first in the AL West. On the other, there are two teams in front of them, they're about to lose two starting pitchers (Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn) to free agency, and they lost 101 games last year.

I might look for new GM Jack Zdurencik to do something that doesn't fall clearly on either side, and I'm not sure what that will be. But Zdurencik is too smart for obvious binaries. Take the recent trade of Yuniesky Betancourt to the Royals for pitching prospects Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito. Sure, that looks like selling, but when you're just getting rid of a terrible player and a terrible contract, you're probably not making the team worse.

I don't think the Mariners will give up any good prospects to make a run at a flashy veteran, so they won't be buying in the traditional sense, but they might find more creative ways to improve. One possibility would be to flip Bedard or Washburn for a player who won't be a free agent at the end of the season but can still provide immediate help.

Short-term need

The Mariners' catchers have been among the worst in the majors and, like a number of contending teams, they could use a bit more pitching depth, both in the bullpen and in the rotation. A real answer at shortstop--Ronny Cedeno might not be enough--could help, too.

Long-term need

Infield prospects--shortstop Carlos Triunfel is a high-risk prospect who could turn out to be very good, and there are a fair number of interesting third basemen in the minors, but there aren't enough middle infielders or first basemen. They could also use prospects of all stripes, particularly in the higher levels of the system. Zdurencik's predecessor Bill Bavasi didn't do the M's any favors by shipping off a number of promising youngsters for Bedard and by pursuing a bizarre drafting strategy that included drafting relievers in the first round twice in a row (with Phillippe Aumont in 2007 and Joshua Fields in 2008, depending on how you look at it; the M's under Bavasi used Aumont as a starter, but then again you might count 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow as a reliever too, since Bavasi used him as one).

Big leaguers on the market?

Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn, who are both pitching well and will both be free agents after the season, might be available. With the recent acquisition of Ryan Langerhans, outfielder Wladimir Balentien could go. And while David Aardsma's name isn't coming up with any regularity, Eric Karabell makes a compelling case that Aardsma might be the the sort of player the M's would consider trading--he's racking up saves, which are often overvalued.

Minor league strength

Their pitching depth could use some work, but Michael Saunders, Ezequiel Carrera, and Tyson Gillies are a very good corps of young outfielders. Greg Halman, who has hit a ton of homers this year and done little else, would fit into the middle of that list, too, if he were hitting better than .212. Second-overall draft pick Dustin Ackley will top the list if he signs.

Take on short-term money to win?

Dumping Betancourt should allow the Mariners to add salary at the deadline if they need to.

For more on the Mariners, check out Lookout Landing.

The JJ Putz Three-Way Trade

Peter Bendix — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 10:00:10 -0000

Mets obtain JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed.

Indians obtain Joe Smith and Luis Valbuena.

Mariners obtain Franklin Gutierrez, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrara and Maikel Cleto

Although it only involves one big name, this 12-player trade probably qualifies as a blockbuster. Let’s examine the deal.

For the Mets: Obviously, Putz is the prize in this trade. In Putz, the Mets get a guy who was perhaps the most dominant reliever in the game in 2006 and 2007, before running into injury woes. However, it is those injury woes that allowed the Mets to get Putz without giving up any amazing prospects. Although Putz returned to action in 2008, he didn’t quite return to form (although he was very good), and questions remain about whether he can stave off injuries in the future. Furthermore, he won’t be cheap: Putz is due $5 million this year, and has a club option worth $8.6 million for next year. Yes, that’s probably below market value, but it’s not chump change either. If healthy, Putz can be a dominant force in the back end of the Mets bullpen.

Reed is very similar to Endy Chavez – actually, Reed is younger and cheaper than Chavez – but is probably miscast as an everyday player, especially in a corner. He can have some value as a defensive-minded fourth outfielder, but the Mets should still be looking for an everyday corner outfielder.

Green has posted xFIPs over right around 4.00 over the last two seasons, and has some value in a major league bullpen. He’s probably not quite as good as Joe Smith, but is worth having as a middle reliever.

The Mets are in the position where they can afford to gamble on someone like Putz. The money is of very little consequence to them, and a healthy Putz would be a tremendous benefit to their bullpen. They gave up value, but nothing irreplaceable.

However, Omar Minaya should not assume that Putz will be healthy for 70 or 80 innings this year. The Mets’s problem in the past has been an embarrassing lack of depth, and this trade does little to help. If Putz (or Francisco Rodriguez) gets hurt, the Mets bullpen will once again be exposed, with little to help them in the short-term. The pen has the chance to be above-average, but also the chance to be awful. For a team like the Mets, which harbors legitimate playoff hopes in 2009, they had better make sure that they have a Plan B and Plan C for their bullpen.

For the Indians: The Tribe once again cashes in on the presence of Grady Sizemore by trading a guy who profiles better as a center fielder. They did this with Coco Crisp in 2005 (not that that worked out particularly well for either team), and they do it again by trading Gutierrez. Gutierrez fields (and hits) like a center fielder, but was playing right field for the Indians. Certainly, his defense was valuable there, but it’s a lot easier to find a corner outfielder than a center fielder. In return, the Indians get another legitimate piece to add to their bullpen in Joe Smith, and an intriguing second baseman in Luis Valbuena.

In his first two years in the majors, the 23-year-old Smith has posted xFIPS of 3.73 and 3.80. His tRA* has been 4.25 and 4.27 (remember, to convert tRA* to an ERA scale, subtract .40 from tRA*). He’s a side-arming righty who shouldn’t face lefties in important situations, but strikes out over eight batters per nine innings and gets grounders on over 60% of his balls in play. There’s a good amount of value in a pitcher like that.

Valbuena, 23, is probably not ready for the majors. He had a nice season in 2008, hitting .301/.380/.430 between double- and triple-A, and showing excellent plate discipline in the process (he walked 59 times and struck out 69 times). I don’t know much about his defense, but it is supposed to be above-average. His defense is vital: as a second baseman, Valbuena could make it in the majors, but if he has to move to left field he probably won’t hit enough. Valbuena is not terribly young and didn’t show much offensively prior to the 2008 season, so he will have to prove that his 08 isn’t a fluke.

This trade is interesting for the Indians. They cash in on Gutierrez’s value as a center fielder, but they didn’t add a starting pitcher or a ready-for-the-majors infielder, their two biggest needs. Mark Shapiro clearly felt that this would be the best trade the Indians could find for Gutierrez, who has more value for another team than he does for the Indians. Smith will be a nice cog in what should be an above-average bullpen, and Valbuena has value as a young second baseman who can hit a little too. However, it appears that Shapiro made this deal with the long-term in mind, rather than as a short-term fix to the Tribe’s problems. That’s not necessarily bad, but it means the Indians still have more moves to make for the 09 season.

For the Mariners: They are the winners of this deal. They have absolutely no use for a reliever like Putz, who’s a big injury risk and is due nearly $14 over the next two years, no matter how good he is when healthy. They are able to add both quality and quantity to their system in return for a guy who had little value to them. They essentially swap Reed for Chavez, which is probably a wash – Chavez is probably a bit better, but is older and more expensive too. They lose Green, but again, he’s hardly an integral piece, and the bullpen is the least important part of a rebuilding club.

The key to this deal for Seattle is Franklin Gutierrez. Yes, he’s a career .258/.308/.409 hitter – and he’s been awful against right-handers (.246/.298/.378 in his career). However, his defense is off-the-charts. He has rated as the best right fielder in baseball for two years in a row, according to John Dewan’s plus/minus numbers. Other metrics have his defense rated similarly high. If he puts his up a 700 OPS with awesome defense in center field, he’s a very valuable player. Furthermore, he’s only going to be 26 next season, and his minor league numbers suggest that he could possibly improve offensively. Finally, he won’t even be arbitration eligible until 2010, and can’t be a free agent until 2013.

The Mariners also buy low on Aaron Heilman. While he posted a 5.21 ERA last year, he also had a very high home run rate and a low strand rate. It’s unclear whether Seattle intends to use Heilman as a starter or a reliever, but either way, Safeco should help build his trade value back up, allowing the Mariners to spin him to another team if they so desire.

In Carp, Vargas, Carrara and Cleto, the Mariners add additional depth to their system. Each of these players has a legitimate chance of contributing at the major league level, even if none projects to be a star (although Cleto has a higher ceiling than the other players, as well as more risk). Every minor league system needs guys like this, and occasionally they outperform expectations. The fact that they are additional players in this deal, rather than the only players, makes this an outstanding deal for the Mariners.

While Seattle may not have received any star players, the fact that they were able to get this much for Putz, Reed, and Green is impressive. Their outfield defense should be spectacular (and could help drive up value on some of their mediocre pitchers), and they added a tremendous amount of quality depth to their minor league system. All in exchange for a reliever who has extensive injury concerns and is due almost $14 million over the next two years.

While Jack Z and company have only been in charge for a short time, all signs point to an impressive regime righting the ship in the northwest.

The Big Deal's Little Deal

Jay — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 08:33:05 -0000

Ryan on the Big Deal: Here's the entire trade (former teams in parentheses):

The Seattle Mariners receive: RHP Aaron Heilman (NYM), OF Franklin Gutierrez (CLE), OF Endy Chavez (NYM), 1B Mike Carp (NYM), RHP Maikel Cleto (NYM), LHP Jason Vargas (NYM), and OF Ezekiel Carrera (NYM)

The New York Mets receive: RHP J.J. Putz (SEA), OF Jeremy Reed (SEA), RHP Sean Green (SEA)

The Cleveland Indians receive: RHP Joe Smith (NYM), 2B Luis Valbuena (SEA)

From an overall view, this deal was all about the Mets getting J.J. Putz and the Mariners getting as much talent as they could. The Indians were just facilitating the larger deal, though that's not how we as Tribe fans look at it. New York has made rebuilding their bullpen an offseason priority after losing the division because they couldn't hold leads down the stretch. To that end, they've recently signed Francisco Rodriguez, the best closer on the market, and now they've traded for Putz, a closer in his own right, to set up for Rodriguez. I would imagine Putz wasn't happy at the prospect, since the demotion in roles means his future earnings potential decreases significantly.

Seattle ended 2008 needing talent in a lot of areas, and while there's no top-flight talent heading their way in this deal, the infusion of both major-league and minor-league players (seven in all) will certainly help their outfield defense in the short-term, and will strengthen their minor-league system in the long-term. Replacing Raul Ibanez and Jeremy Reed with Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez will be a massive defensive improvement. And with ball-in-play pitchers like Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn in their rotation, they're going to need all the defense they can get.

Jay on the Little Deal: CF Franklin Gutierrez for Mariners 2B Luis Valbuena, an advanced prospect, and Mets reliever Joe Smith, a righty who just completed a successful first full season in the majors. As an aside, the name Maikel Cleto frightens me.

Gutierrez of course played right field for the Indians but was always a center fielder. They say that weakness invites aggression, but Indians fans know that depth at a skill position invites a trade — that principle is the reason Asdrubal is on our roster and Coco isn't. But if Coco's skills suggested a trade would be productive, Gutierrez's skills flat-out demanded it. He was one of the best defensive outfielders in the game last season, possessed of both staggering range and a plus-plus arm, and he may well blossom into being the game's very best center fielder. With us, he's a weak-hitting corner outfielder, soaking up a few more balls than anyone has a right to expect. With the Mariners, he becomes chief defender of one of the most spacious outfields in the game.

Gutierrez will be eligible for arbitration starting in 2010 and will reach free agency after the 2012 season. Like many high-tools-low-skills players signed as teenagers out of Latin America, he's been out of options for years, which creates a real flexibility problem when he goes into long slumps at the plate. People ... I understand that you loved Gootz. We all love Gootz. Defensive standouts are part of the aesthetic beauty of the game — they help the home team a little but help the viewing experience even more — hell, I still get misty about Alex Escobar. But let's be real about this player — he got 741 PA over the last two seasons and his line drive rate over that period was just 15.8%. For context, out of 138 qualified major league hitters this past season, only four had a lower rate than that. Yes, we risk that he might explode as a hitter and jack 25 home runs at some point, but the Mariners risk four years of struggles to hit .260. At the plate, he's more high-risk than high-reward, and all of the above is a package of trade-offs that looks a lot better in CF than in RF.

Joe Smith is only the second Joe Smith in MLB history, which I think is kind of remarkable. (The other one was a catcher who had a 14-game cup of coffee with the Yankees in 1913.) He made the big-league club (and was added to the Mets 40-man roster) out of spring training in 2007, and he didn't give up a run until his 18th appearance in the majors. He stayed in the bigs for most of 2007 and all of 2008, putting him one year of service time away from arbitration as a Super Two (assuming he stays in the majors) but under team control all the way through 2013.

Smith also has two option years remaining, which is more than we can say for Ed Mujica, just for one example. Smith becomes the 8th reliever on the 40-man roster with at least one option remaining going in 2009, in addition to four relievers (K-Wood, Masa, Betancourt and Mujica) who can't be sent to the minors. Option rights can be quite significant for players in complementary roles, which includes all but the very best relievers, and the Indians clearly value those rights.

Ryan: Last season, Smith pitched in 82 games for the Mets, usually from the seventh inning on. Based on his Fangraphs profile, he throws a high-80s fastball, a slider, and an occasional changeup. He's a ground-ball pitcher, always a plus for a reliever, though he he's walked 4.35 BB/IP in his professional career, higher than you'd hope for a late-inning guy. The bullpen situation is way too jumbled up right now to guess where he's going to end up in the Wedge pecking order, but I'd put him in the Lewis/Betancourt/Perez group as of today.

Jay: Valbuena literally means "good value," from the Latin root vale, which variously means strength or worth. Then again, sometimes vale means "farewell," as in "ave atque vale," so you could argue Valbuena means "good riddance." Then again, it could also be from the Latin root valle, which is more like an assistant, which suggests that Valbuena could be a good complementary player, or perhaps just good at making assists. (Hat-tip to randallhank.)

Valbuena got his first look at the majors just three months ago, as a September call-up. He seems to have emerged as a quality defender at second base and a canny hitter, albeit one who may not ever have any pop. He definitely fits the Indians pattern of targeting advanced prospects who are excess depth on other clubs, and especially their pattern of targeting infielders with unusually selective approaches at the plate. Evidently they feel that middle infielders with minimal pop but the ability to draw walks end up being under-valued by other clubs, a trend that stretches from Carroll to Asdrubal to Rivero and now to Valbuena.

In 2007, Valbuena played in Double-A at the rather young age of 21, and while his overall numbers were quite underwhelming — 693 OPS — he seemed to hit into a fair amount of bad luck — Sackmann puts his 2007 neutral OPS at 766 — and he maintained a healthy walk rate of 9.5% despite frightening no one. In 2008, his walk rate was even better — 11.2% in Double-A and 11.5% in Triple-A, numbers that qualify as highly unusual for a 22-year-old middle infielder at that level. His overall numbers rose even more significantly in 2008, as he posted and 864 OPS in Double-A, 748 OPS in Triple-A, 831 neutral OPS across both levels — and here I will remind you again, all of this at age 22. UPDATE: The icing on the cake is that he's got a 901 OPS in 38 games in the Venezuelan Winter League. He's spending three months as the starting 2B for the Cardenales de Lara, whose starting shortstop is ... Asdrubal Cabrera.

Our Progress score system has Valbuena around 8.0 for 2008, right with our best-performing position player prospects from last year (Santana and Rivero) and with more experience in Triple-A and the majors than any of our best prospects. He's very obviously one of the best ten prospects in our suddenly burgeoning farm system, and as he sits on the cusp of the majors, you could argue he's in the top five. Marcels has him pencilled in for a 766 OPS in 2009, in the majors at age 23. He doesn't have Asdrubal's star potential, but his power will almost certainly improve as he goes through his mid-20s, and he's got a solid chance to be a core player.

Ryan: I think adding Valbuena precludes any major infielder signings or trades, in fact I think the Indians pursued this trade only after they looked at all possible free agent signings or trades for established major leaguers. I would think this gives new life to Josh Barfield or Andy Marte, depending on whether the brain trust decides to move Peralta to third permanently. The problem with waiting until Spring Training to figure out who to keep is that three-fourths of the infield wouldn't know what position they were playing until the Marte/Barfield competition had a winner. It's probably for the best if the Indians send Marte on his way this winter, let Peralta play third every day in Spring Training, and have Carroll and Barfield handle second.

If this is it for the infield, then I think it's now on to adding another starting pitcher or even looking at one of the free agent corner outfielders. I don't think the deal does a whole lot for the 2009 Indians, though it may very well turn out a very good trade for the club two or three years from now if Valbuena pans out.

Jay: Somewhat overlooked in the discussion so far is the fact that Valbuena bats from the left side, and lefty-batting infielders (other than 1B) have extra value because the great majority are righty batters. It's easier to throw a lefty rookie into the fire because it's easy to find a viable righty to spell him off the bench. The Indians may well be considering breaking camp with a platoon of Valbuena and Barfield at 2B, backed up by Carroll, with the long-discussed position shift for Peralta and Cabrera going into effect. That at the very least has now become the Indians' worst case scenario, but with crappy options for the infield abounding league-wide, maybe it's just ... the scenario.

Valbuena was just added to the 40-man roster this past September, and he'll enter 2009 with just 28 days of service time. If he breaks camp with the Indians and stays in the majors, he'll play the next three seasons at or near minimum salary, hit arbitration starting with the 2012 season, and reach free agency after the 2014 season. If he splits his time between the majors and minors this season, you can move both of those back one year. He has three option years remaining.

Breaking this down according to contractual value, the Indians traded four seasons of Gutierrez for 11 seasons of control over Valbuena and Smith — like it or not, this is the classic M.O. for the Shapiro front office, but at least in this case, those 11 seasons will start to be cashed in immediately, not several years down the road. That's the long view, though. The short view is that we traded from a position of depth — we have, like, ninety weak-hitting outfielders — to bolster one part of the roster where we badly needed depth — middle infield — and another part where you can never have enough — the bullpen. Frankie Gootz, we will miss him, and he was the most specialest and our most favoritest weak-hitting corner outfielder, but he probably would never have been much more than a complementary player on our club.

Some may question whether we got enough value back for a player of Gutierrez's talent and potential, but there can be little doubt that these two new players are far better fits for our particular needs. And regardless of that, how cool is it that we screwed the Tigers out of the best two available closers in the space of about 30 hours?