SB Nation - Edwin Maysonet

Astros show interest in Kelly Johnson, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Michaels sign on the dotted line

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:29 -0000

How does "Kelly Johnson, Houston Astro" sound?

After second baseman Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves, a number of teams have expressed interest in him. That link notes that the D-Backs are on record that their hat has been thrown in the KJ ring, but Tim Dierkes said Monday on his site that three NL Central clubs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Astros desire his services to various extents.

Johnson's non-tendering came as a surprise to many, including clack, and his bat would be welcome in Houston, assuming he returns to his normal self after a down 2009. Take Bill James' optimistic projection and the fan's projections off FanGraphs, and you can get a pretty good idea of what is expected out of the middle infielder in 2010.

This wouldn't be an offseason-defining signing by Ed Wade, but if the Astros could get Johnson, the team would be much improved. The Diamondacks are in a position where they would trade another one of their backup infielders in order to create space for Johnson. Neither the Cards or Buccos have the greatest infields in the world, and while Pittsburgh signed Bobby Crosby to bolster theirs, it's not as if Kelly Johnson wouldn't be able to get significant playing time in Pittsburgh. St. Louis may not get Troy Glaus back, which leaves them with Skip Schumaker, David Freese, and Joe Thurston at 2B/3B entering spring training. Not exactly household names.

Pedro Feliz is an upgrade for Houston over Geoff Blum, but it's no guarantee that Feliz will be even a win better than Blummers. Kaz Matsui is injury-prone at second, is coming off a disappointing season and his backup, Edwin Maysonet, does not project to be anything special. Cost is something to focus on, as KJ made $2.8 million in 2009 and should demand a contract worth more than that in 2010. A deal in the mid-3 millions for one season maybe a gamble worth taking, especially if Wade cannot sign a starting pitcher or convert Jason Bourgeois to a second baseman as some have hypothesized.

Just when we thought we were getting rid of him...he pulls us back in. Or rather, we pull him back in. That's right: Jason Michaels has been re-signed to an $800,000 contract. Again, not a disaster, but the money could have been better allocated elsewhere. I would still like to see the team make a move for Ryan Church, if their budget allows for it. Bottom line, as with most of the Astros' moves, this won't be the difference between a postseason berth and another Astro-less October. Michaels wasn't near as bad as I thought he was in 2009, but I would have liked to have seen Wade think a little more out of the box. Reggie Abercrombie, and the aforementioned Bourgeois and Church could be in the running for the fifth and assumedly final outfield reserve spot.

Alyson Footer also tweets that Gustavo Chacin has been signed to a minor league deal and given an invite to Spring Training. Chacin hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, so let's not hold our breath on anything happening for him with the Astros. His experience working with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg in Toronto most likely has a lot to do with his being given a shot. Think of him as Russ Ortiz with perhaps a bit more upside.

The Rookies Who Aren't

TheJay — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

The first part of the definition of a rookie in Major League Baseball is straightforward. Once a player reaches 131 at bats or 50 1/3 innings pitched, he's no longer a rookie. The second part is a little trickier. After all, service time numbers are hard to find. They generally come out once each year, in team media guides. Add in the fact that you have to subtract time in the major leagues after September 1st and on the disabled list and it's even harder to figure out who is truly a rookie.

It has already been mentioned this offseason that Mat Gamel eclipsed 45 days of service time before September. Gamel was recalled from Nashville on May 14th and optioned back on July 20th, giving him 67 days on the active roster during the "period of 25-player limit." So, even though he sits at 130 career at bats, the same number Scott Rolen had going into his Rookie of the Year season, Gamel cannot win the Rookie of the Year award (though that might not stop him from getting votes).

Gamel isn't the only such little-used non-rookie in the Brewers organization. Raise your hand if you realized Hernan Iribarren has 48 days of major league service time, all before September 1. Iribarren spent 20 days on the major league roster in April and June 2008, picking up 14 at bats. He spent 28 days in the majors in 2009, batting a mere 13 times. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict he wasn't going to win the 2010 Rookie of the Year Award anyway.

New Brewer George Kottaras also enters 2010 off the list of rookie players. He spent all of 2009 in the majors with the Red Sox, playing in 45 games with 93 at bats. Though he spent the month of August on the disabled list, he gave up his 2010 rookie status in mid-May.

Gamel, Iribarren, and Kottaras are not the only little-used rookies. Follow the jump for a list of all such position players to appear in the majors in 2008 or 2009. Please note it is lengthy and full of guys who have no chance at winning an award anyway. I will post a list of pitchers in the next few days.

Non-Rookies with 130 or fewer career AB:

Mat Gamel, 130 career AB
Joaquin Arias, 129 AB
Argenis Reyes, 127 AB
Jose Morales, 122 AB
Ivan Ochoa*, 120 AB
Michel Hernandez, 118 AB
Curtis Thigpen*, 118 AB
Ramiro Pena, 115 AB
Josh Whitesell, 115 AB
Luke Carlin, 112 AB
Chris Gimenez, 111 AB
Tyler Greene, 108 AB
Sam Fuld, 103 AB
Reid Brignac, 100 AB
Francisco Cervelli, 99 AB
George Kottaras, 98 AB
Freddy Guzman, 95 AB
Robinson Cancel, 94 AB
Guillermo Rodriguez, 92 AB
Steve Holm, 91 AB
Justin Ruggiano*, 90 AB
Nathan Haynes*, 89 AB
Diory Hernandez, 85 AB
Don Kelly, 83 AB
Dane Sardinha, 80 AB
Luis Maza*, 79 AB
Paul Hoover, 78 AB
Edwin Maysonet, 76 AB
Dusty Ryan, 70 AB
Clint Sammons, 68 AB
Tug Hulett, 67 AB
Drew Sutton, 66 AB
J.R. House*, 60 AB
John Mayberry, 57 AB
Gregorio Petit, 54 AB
Brian Myrow*, 51 AB
Chris Stewart*, 48 AB
Justin Christian*, 40 AB
Travis Denker*, 37 AB
Gustavo Molina*, 34 AB
Hernan Iribarren, 27 AB
Ryan Budde, 23 AB

* - last appeared in the majors in 2008

I warned you. If I missed anyone or included someone who should not be on the list, let me know in the comments.

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Browse more photos »

This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.

Roster Breakdown: The Money

davoag — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:12:42 -0000

I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

	WAR	Salary	Difference
Bourn	18.700	0.435	18.265
Pence	15.200	0.439	14.761
W. Rodriguez	14.400	2.600	11.800
Fulchino	3.600	0.400	3.200
Hampton	4.600	2.000	2.600
Sampson	2.700	0.449	2.251
Arias	2.500	0.402	2.099
Quintero	2.300	0.610	1.690
Rodriguez	3.100	1.500	1.600
Gervacio	1.900	0.400	1.500
Blum	2.600	1.200	1.400
Keppinger	1.700	0.428	1.273
Maysonet	1.400	0.400	1.000
Norris	0.400	0.400	0.000
Sadler	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Towles	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Manzella	-0.200	0.400	-0.600
Kata	-0.300	0.400	-0.700
Berkman	13.600	14.500	-0.900
Tejada	11.800	13.000	-1.200
Paronto	-1.100	0.500	-1.600
Bazardo	-1.200	0.405	-1.605
Ortiz	-1.100	0.750	-1.850
Michaels	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Boone	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Lopez	-1.600	0.400	-2.000
Hawkins	1.500	3.500	-2.000
Johnson	-2.000	0.375	-2.375
Moehler	-0.200	2.300	-2.500
Wright	-2.100	0.425	-2.525
Matsui	2.400	5.000	-2.600
Coste	-2.500	0.460	-2.960
Backe	-1.500	1.500	-3.000
Paulino	-2.600	0.405	-3.005
Smith	-2.800	0.500	-3.300
Oswalt	10.300	14.000	-3.700
Geary	-2.000	1.700	-3.700
Byrdak	-3.200	1.000	-4.200
Brocail	-2.200	2.500	-4.700
Valverde	3.000	8.000	-5.000
Erstad	-4.100	1.750	-5.850
Lee	10.600	18.500	-7.900

Looking ahead to the Astros in 2010; The Cyclical Nature of Sports

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 11:00:25 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

These guys won't be on the team next season. I think. Maybe.

View full size photo »

RJ weighs in with a blog post telling us that the Astros don't have to be terrible in 2010. Let's point out a contradiction of his, right off the bat: in his last blog post, he noted that fans don't care about the Astros anymore. Friday though, he noted that:

People here care about this baseball team. They care deeply.

Ok, well nobody ever said Dickie was known for being consistent. Let's go on, shall we?

Astros fans will be OK with younger players as long as they see that the organization is committed to a larger picture. Besides that, whether the team is good or bad, there still aren't many better ways to spend a few hours than to sit inside Minute Maid Park and watch a baseball game.

Point to Mr. Justice. Indeed, a climate controlled environment, $8.50 beers, a downtown that is being improved upon seemingly by the week, and a city that loves sports. All factors that enable MMP to draw fans even when Humberto Quintero, Kaz Matsui, and Jason Michaels make up 1/3 of the Astros' lineup. Onward, I say!:

Also, don't go writing off Bud Norris, Tommy Manzella or Chris Johnson after just a month or even after a season. Remember how bad Michael Bourn was last year? Could you have ever imagined he would be the Astros MVP in 2009?

Damn you, Tricky Ricky! Making another point I can't readily disparage.

Weren't you a little embarrassed when the Astros made a big deal of Pudge Rodriguez becoming the all-time leader in games caught? Pudge meant nothing to most Astros fans. He got here when he was in decline, and at a time when the organization was sliding backwards.

....I don't know if embarrassed is the word I would use. Maybe it is.I'm so confused at this point. Agreeing with Justice this much is like a life long Republican nodding his head with a President Obama State of the Union address. It's just not right.

Install Tommy Manzella at short and Edwin Maysonet at second and come up with a plan to give Brian Bogusevic regular playing time in the outfield.

Chris Johnson? He should have every chance to win the third-base job. Same with Jason Castro behind the plate.

Echoing our own DQ? Stop it right now, Richard! He caps it all off with a push to sign pitching:

Among the free agents: Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, John Lackey, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, Kiko Calero, Fernando Rodney, Billy Wagner and Jamie Walker.

An interesting post, to be sure. Food for thought this weekend too.

This one is for you, 'ol Pete: the Seattle Pilots are having a player reunion this weekend, celebrating their one year of existence. The who?? Some may ask. They were Seattle's first major league franchise, playing the 1969 season before a used-car dealer from Milwaukee named Allan Selig spearheaded an effort to move Seattle's young franchise to his hometown. The Pilots would henceforth be known as the Milwaukee Brewers, so give thanks 'ol Pete, your town got a baseball team roughly forty years ago.

For those who don't know, my family is from Milwaukee (I was actually born there) and I have heard stories about the old Milwaukee Braves moving to Atlanta, and how the city was distraught after losing the team. My grandfather would watch games at County Stadium in the cold, and enjoyed every second of it. After his Braves left though, he never could embrace the Brewers fully. After much of our family moved to Texas in the early 1990s he saw the light and became an Astros' fan, following the club closer than he ever did the Brew Crew. To me, it was always funny how he bemoaned losing his Braves, but he's never mentioned how Milwaukee pried away the Pilots from Seattle. I think on a basic level, the team you grew up with is going to have that pull on your heartstrings for life. Right or wrong, good or bad, most fans have their allegiances and will until the day they die. Times change, teams do too, but those memories from your youth are eternal. Sports is beautiful sometimes, ya know? A lot of people in Seattle lost a team, but tons of little guys and gals in Milwaukee gained a sports following that has lasted a lifetime.

The worst part of the Pilots saga was that it would foreshadow the city of Seattle eventually losing their beloved Sonics, and almost losing the Mariners in the early 1990s, before Ken Griffey, Jr. and crew saved the day, Seattle has had a bumpy sports history despite fielding competitive teams in all three of the major US sports. Hell, the Seattle Sounders soccer club are wowing folks in Washington, and drawing big crowds to boot. You win some, you lose some. You lose a piece of your town, and gain a new piece. Such is life, such is sports.

Why are the Astros wasting September?

DyingQuail — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 12:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I'll already said I'd be willing to try this? What are you guys waiting for?

Browse more photos »

September opened yesterday with the absolutely thrilling announcement that Doug Brocail would be joining the truly heart warming story of Aaron Boone. I don't want to take anything away from the truly miraculous return of Aaron Boone, but when the headline for roster-expansion is a guy coming back from open heart surgery, one has to wonder what the front office is thinking. With about 30 games left in 2009 the Astros have less than 1% odds of making the playoffs. Less than 1%. There's nothing to be gained from these games except previewing potential lineup cards for 2010.

I am aware that these kinds of roster expansion typically take place once the minor league season is in the books, but there's a catch for the 2009 Astros organization: Both Round Rock and Corpus Christi aren't playing for anything. There's literally nothing holding the Astros back from experimenting for an extra week to make more informed decisions in the offseason. The best part is, pretty much everything the Astros need to see is already on the 40-man roster.

How does Miguel Tejada fair at 3B? Does Geoff Blum really need regular playing time? Does it matter if he makes a bunch of ridiculous errors? The answer to both of these is no.
What does Tommy Manzella hit like at the big league level? Better yet, how does he look at SS? With Miggy over at 3B, it makes perfect sense to bring up his ostensible in house replacement, who is on the 40-man roster, and see how he fares. Sure his bat is important, but I'm really curious to see how his glove plays.
How do Brian Bogusevic and Yordany Ramirez look? Our current outfield trio aren't going anywhere, but with a relative (and I mean relative) surplus of seemingly capable outfielders why not see if we can get them a strong cup of coffee and sell high on one of them? Think Josh Anderson in 2007, only hope for more than Oscar Villareal.
What has another year of AAA done for JR Towles? Can we count him in for 2010? Or can we potentially shop him this offseason? A replication of 2007's cup of coffee could do wonders for his stock.
Who would be a better regular: Jeff Keppinger or Edwin Maysonet? My guess is Keppinger, but why not give them both a consistent run of starts. It's not like Kaz Matsui needs to play extra games, he's already fragile enough.
Could Yorman Bazardo be more useful as a Chris Sampson-type in the bullpen? It would save him some innings, and allow us to see get a better idea of his relative utility to us.
Finally, it'd be cool to see how this worked out for scrap heap types? I guess we're really out of scrap heap types, but maybe we could figure it out.

With Richard Justice already predicting someone's firing tomorrow today, what does this organization have to lose? Let's be bold.

Sunday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 11:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Wonder if anyone's looking for a bench coach...

Browse more photos »

Another media outlet tells us that Cecil Cooper is on thin ice. At this point, I absolutely cannot see him remaining on as manager past October.

Speaking of Coop, he took over as Astros manager two years ago last Friday, and has compiled a 162-168 record in his time as skipper. Not that he's had a roster of All Stars to work with, but rest assured that McLane knows Cooper's record and this will factor into his decision making this offseason.

Sad news for Mike Hampton: he has chosen to have season ending surgery to repair injuries to both of his knees and his left shoulder. He wants to try and pitch again, saying that he's going to do everything he can to come back. Hampton is by all accounts a good guy, it just didn't work out for him in his second stint as an Astro.

RJ has gone past mentioning rumors of Cecil Cooper's demise and has come right out and endorsed a replacement: Jeffery Robert Bagwell. Manny Acta is asked to come on as Baggy's bench coach. I'd rather Acta come on as manager, but that's just me. Bringing up Manzella and Towles, and inserting Edwin Maysonet as our every day second baseman rounds out his suggestions.

Last, this is a topic I don't think I've ever heard discussed, or ever read an article on, hitters showing bunt early in a count. Not that the subject is all that interesting, but the fact that someone thought of devoting time to writing about it is cool in my opinion.

Friday Morning-ish Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:07:13 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

This guy, he's good.

Browse more photos »

A few links before the lunch break to help tide you over until game time:

A hat tip has to go out out to FarmStros on this one. Kyle Greenwalt's hometown newspaper has an in depth interview with him on what it was like to transition from being in high school to being a professional baseball player, virtually overnight. It really is a fantastic read to get a human interest take on life in the minor leagues. Thanks, FarmStros. For those of you not following him @farmstros you're missing out some good haikus. He's got a 40-day streak going...but can he hit 56?
Speaking of minor league action, Minor League Splits now has aggregated minor league recaps for every organization. I've got it bookmarked for the Astros, I imagine several of you will/have too.
Doug Brocail threw a simulated game yesterday and Astros.com's piece has nothing but positives to say about it. Yesterday, though, Alyson Footer was describing how he was getting crushed by Jason Michaels and Edwin Maysonet over twitter. Her best guess is that he doesn't get activated until the rosters expand.
Although no one really saw it coming, Michael Bourn is a star caliber player.
Brian McTaggart checks in with Mike Hampton to see how he is reacting to his potentially career ending injury. It sounds like Hampton's effort to rehab instead of have surgery is a last ditch effort to be able to pitch once more and the retire on his terms. He really doesn't want to hang'em up yet, though:

"I'll take it one day at a time," he said. "Who knows? I still like to pitch. I don't really know how to do anything else than play baseball. It's my profession, and once it's gone it's gone. I don't know if I can find anything else than I'm smart enough to do."

Brett Cecil won't live this one down for awhile, I imagine.
A trio of BtB articles: Finally, someone at BtB is beginning to question how a team could consistently outperform their PythagRecord. A fan post about the anatomy of a ground ball with tons of pretty looking graphs and interesting insights. Finally, part one of their "Effort in Sports" series sets up what should be a pretty interesting bit of discussion.

Where the Astros' Defense Excels: Young Arms and Turnin' Two

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 11:00:10 -0000

Overall, the Astros defense leaves a lot to be desired. We're not the worst in baseball, but after being more than respectable last season, the squad has fallen into disrepair in 2009.

Age has caught up to Miguel Tejada, who should probably be playing third base at this point in his career- although the Rangers' Michael Young was in a similar position last season and is still terrible after moving to third base.

Carlos Lee needs not be discussed.

There are some bright spots on defense though. For starters, our young outfield combo of Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence are ranked very highly in terms of their Arm Strength. Fangraphs measures how many runs above average an outfielder's throwing arm is, and the results for Bourn and Pence are nice to see:

Player	Position	ARM	Positional Rank
M. Bourn	CF	5.0	2nd
H. Pence	RF	2.3	9th

For their positions, both Bourn (9th) and Pence (8th) rank in the top ten in UZR/150. Their defensive range may be in question, but their arms sure are not. In the case of Bourn, UZR may not tell the whole story, as Clack noted last week. There is definitely something to be said for Bourn's ability to track down balls outside of his normal CF zones, as well as playing a difficult centerfield in Houston.

One last area where the Astros have mitigated their defensive shortcomings is converting double play opportunities. Fangraphs defines DPR as:

The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.

This is obviously an infielder's stat, one that caters primarily to those that start double plays:

Player	Position	DPR
Jeff Keppinger	3B	.7
Edwin Maysonet	2B	.6
Kaz Matsui	2B	.6
Geoff Blum	3B	.5
Miguel Tejada	SS	.2
Jeff Keppinger	2B	.1

It's interesting to note that Edwin Maysonet ranks so highly, despite having played only 102 innings at 2B this season. Also, Jeff Keppinger has played a nice second base this season. Ditto Geoff Blum at 3B. Kaz and Miguel contribute veteraniness at all times.

Astros Place Lance Berkman on the DL

Brendan Scolari — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 17:17:49 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Browse more photos »

Lance Berkman has been placed on the 15 day disabled list with a strained left calf according to ESPN.com:

Berkman has missed five starts with the injury, but the Astros had hoped he would heal quickly and could avoid a stint on the DL.

Berkman had an MRI exam and met with Dr. David Lintner on Tuesday, and had expected to return on Friday when the Astros open a three-game series with the New York Mets.

"We are in agreement that keeping Lance active will only put him in a position of wanting to help the club and re-aggravating the injury," Wade said. "I also spoke to Lance, and he understands. It's not easy to disable one of your key guys, but we want him strong for the stretch drive, so it's the right move."

Berkman, who has only been on the DL once before in his career, was disappointed by the move.

"It's for the best," Berkman said. "I want to be on the field, so I'm not happy about it, but it's for the best. I look forward to getting it right and getting back on the field in a couple of weeks. It's better to be out a couple of weeks than a couple of months."

In a corresponding move the Astros called up Edwin Maysonet from Triple-A Round Rock. But will this finally convince the Astros to be buyers? Because of their recent surge they are only 1.5 games behind the division-leading Cardinals in the NL Central. But general manager Ed Wade has conveyed that they won't be adding players or salary at the deadline. They could definitely use more pitching but they don't have many prospects to trade away. The dilemma is that if they don't add anyone else then their team will likely struggle to stay in the playoff race. Since they are not willing to be sellers the team is left in limbo, unable to commit either way. They do have a few players who they could trade off if they ever did fall out the race, namely Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde. But it will be interesting to see if the front office is able to make up their mind.