SB Nation - Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

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Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

Dodgers Waste Golden Opportunity, Decline Arbitration For Wolf, Hudson

Eric Stephen — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:14:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Randy Wolf tries to emulate the feelings of Dodger fans today

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I don't know what to say anymore.

The Dodgers declined to offer arbitration to all seven of their Type A and Type B free agents today, most notably Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. This means the Dodgers will receive no compensation if any of the free agents sign elsewhere.

I already covered the reasons for and/or against offering arbitration, and I expected to be disappointed today. But not to this extent. On some level, I can understand the argument for not offering arbitration to Hudson, even if I don't fully agree with it. However, not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is just wrong. Wolf is the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market, and is sure to get a multi-year offer somewhere, so he would have likely declined arbitration.

In Wolf and Hudson, the Dodgers had two players that should be welcomed back if they chose to accept arbitration, and they only would be signed to one-year deals. Sure, they might be a tad pricey, but both provide value at or exceeding their worth, and again, it would just be for one year, and only if they accepted arbitration. Could it be that the Dodgers are so strapped for cash that they can't accept even the slightest risk of paying two talented players for one season?

Or is it worse than that? Do the Dodgers not want the burden of having four extra draft picks in 2010, the burden of four extra signing bonuses, possibly totaling somewhere in the $4 million range?

What other excuse could there be besides money? Because if this were strictly a baseball decision, both Wolf and Hudson would have been offered arbitration.

These are short-sighted moves by the Dodgers. Look at this team. The 2009 Dodgers only had the best record in the National League, and they were fueled by a young group of players once drafted by the Dodgers: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier (OK, he was drafted by the A's), Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, James Loney, Russell Martin. Unfortunately, you can't continue the process of integrating fresh, new talent into the mix if you don't have the picks to draft them, or if you don't utilize the ones you have. The Dodgers may have potentially saved some money with today's decisions, but they missed a golden opportunity to invest in the future.

It is now apparent to me that general manager Ned Colletti's hands are tied by purse strings. He will have his work cut out for him this offseason, which seems like it could be a long one for Dodger fans.

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 05:55:11 -0000

For the last two years I've done a rundown of Los Angeles Dodger Win Shares. In many circles Win Shares has become passe as WAR has become the stat of choice, but because I built the complete Win Share database based on data in the original book plus the subsequent Bill James Handbooks I haven't felt like letting go. For those who have never heard of Win Shares, it is a statistic created by Bill James the author of the great The Bill James Baseball Abstract series which changed many a baseball fans perception of the game. I used to link to a Rob Neyer review of Win Shares but the article is now gone. For a more recent story, THT compares WAR to Win Shares. THT used to carry their own tweaked version of Win Shares but stopped after the 2008 season. Here is what the 2008 Season Win Share breakdown looked like.

Sure Win Shares is not the be all stat, but it is still interesting to see how the breakdown works. It is a complex algorithm but the guts is that each team is credited with three win shares per actual win. Bill James then works his magic to allocate those wins based on statistical measures to each player on the team.

Here is the 2009 season update.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2009 Win Shares

Player	Win Shares
Matt Kemp	26
Andre Ethier	21
Orlando Hudson	20
Casey Blake	19
James Loney	18
Manny Ramirez	18
Rafael Furcal	17
Russell Martin	16
Jon Broxton	16
Randy Wolf	14
Juan Pierre	12
Clayton Kershaw	12
Chad Billingsley	9
Ramon Troncoso	8
Ronaldo Belisario	7
Hiroki Kuroda	5
Jeff Weaver	5
G Mota	4
Hong-Chih Kuo	3
Mark Loretta	3
James McDonald	3
Brad Ausmus	3

Castro and Stults had two each, while EyeChart, Wade, Abreu, Milton, Haeger, and Elbert had a single win share. Based on the formual the Dodgers would have had 285 win shares (95 * 3) to spread among it's players. I have no way of knowing how many win shares Sherrill(13), Belliard(7), and Padilla(8) had since they don't break them up per team. If you add up all of the Dodgers including those three we have 13 extra win shares which means they should be divided among the trade/waiver deadline pickups.

James Loney was the only 1st baseman of note to garner any Win Shares for the Dodgers in 2009. His season was quite pedestrian by most measures but he did have the 5th most win shares on the team in 2009 with 18. He's yet to crack the top 10 single season win share mark but after only three full seasons he's moved into 5th place on the all-time 1st baseman Win Share list passing Gil Hodges and Greg Brock. For many of you this is the first time you have seen this list, so I'll remind you that this only includes Los Angeles Dodgers. It has been 19 years since the last memorable season by a Dodger 1st baseman.

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Order	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Shares
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	2nd	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	3rd	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	4th	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	T-5th	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	T-8th	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1979	22

For the career totals and complete seasonal leaders for 1st baseman click on read more.

Many Dodgers played 1st and the outfield. Ron Fairly was the 1st baseman for the early part of the 60's before Wes Parker took over. Mike Marshall played many games at 1st and in the outfield. Same with Franklin Stubbs. Someday I may break out the career numbers but for now I'm lumping them into the 1st/OF category.

Career Win Shares for LA Dodger 1st Baseman

Player	TWS	Pos
Garvey, Steve	223	1st
Karros, Eric	175	1st
Parker, Wes	146	1st
Murray, Eddie	68	1st
Loney, James	51	1st
Brock, Greg	47	1st
Hodges, Gil	37	1st
Garciaparra, Nomar	29	1st
Farily, Ron	142	1st/OF
Mike, Marshall	108	1st/OF
Buckner, Billy	80	1st/OF
Larker, Norm	35	1st/OF
Stubbs, Franklin	34	1st/OF

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Pos	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Share Per Season
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1979	22
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1989	21
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1977	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1963	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1962	21
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1999	20
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1996	20
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1965	20
Garciaparra, Nomar	1st	29	2006	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2002	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1997	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1971	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1969	18
Loney, James	1st	51	2009	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1966	17
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1964	17
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1959	17
Loney, James	1st	51	2007	16
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1991	16
Loney, James	1st	51	2008	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1985	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1983	15
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1982	15
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1967	15
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1961	15
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2000	14
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1972	14
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1960	14
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1992	13
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1981	13
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1968	12
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1958	12
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1973	11
Buckner, Billy	1st	80	1973	11
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1993	10
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1987	9
Brock, Gregg	1st	47	1986	9
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2001	8
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1984	8
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1959	8
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1994	7
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1958	7
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1988	6
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1961	6
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1961	5
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1959	5
Loney, James	1st	51	2006	3
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1964	3
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1960	3
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1958	2

Kershaw Closing In On Dubious, Meaningless Record

Eric Stephen — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

This is the only permitted outfield activity Clayton Kershaw is allowed to partake during pregame warmups.

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Clayton Kershaw has a bright future in this game. This we know. His present isn't so bad either, of course. This year, he struck out more than a batter per inning, he allowed the lowest opponent batting average in baseball, and his adjusted ERA (ERA+) was 141.

Kershaw is left-handed, so the comparisons to Sandy Koufax are inevitable, but for Kershaw to be mentioned in the same breath as another famous Dodger lefty, Fernando Valenzuela, is also a fitting honor. Normally, Kershaw approaching a record held by Valenzuela would be something to celebrate. But not in this case.

Believe it or not, Kershaw has not won a game since July 18. That is not to say he hasn't pitched well. If the Cy Young awards this season have taught us anything, it's that pitcher wins aren't the best method to measure performance. Tim Lincecum (15 wins) and Zack Greinke (16 wins) were well-deserving winners, even though they didn't have the traditionally high win totals of past winners.

Including the postseason, Kershaw has made 13 straight starts without recording a win. There have only been six longer streaks in Los Angeles Dodger history:

Most Consecutive Winless Starts, LA Dodger History
Pitcher	Year(s)	Starts	W-L	IP	H	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Fernando Valenzuela	'88-,89	19	0-8	102.0	109	56	58	61	4.94	1.637
Alejandro Peña	'86-'87	15	0-6	71.2	89	44	24	41	5.53	1.577
Rick Honeycutt	1987	14	0-11	71.2	92	44	34	52	5.53	1.758
Don Sutton	1974	14	0-6	75.0	85	47	27	36	5.64	1.493
Ismael Valdez	'99-'00	13	0-6	62.0	87	51	25	45	7.40	1.806
Pedro Astacio	'94-'95	13	0-4	74.1	71	37	25	63	4.48	1.291
Clayton Kershaw	2009	13	0-4	73.2	62	25	36	84	3.05	1.330

Take a look at that list, and notice that the other pitchers pitched rather poorly during their streaks, but Kershaw was still effective during his winless run. Earlier this month, I looked at some of the bad luck behind Kershaw's second half. The bottom line is that it doesn't really matter that Kershaw didn't get those wins. If he keeps pitching like he has been, the wins will come. Oh, will they come.

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

Dodgers pursuing Roy Halladay

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:05:53 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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USA Today is reporting that the Dodgers are very interested in acquiring Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. The Dodgers lack a true ace, and feel that Halladay would solve their problems in the rotation.

However, the Dodgers lack depth in their farm system, and would probably have to bring in a third team to make a deal happen.

The Dodgers could try to include Russell Martin in the deal, but may not be willing to include, say, Andre Ethier or Clayton Kershaw.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests Chad Billingsley would likely have to go in the deal.

Tuesday Rockpile: CHONE is back in town (not Figgins)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

CHONE doesn't buy CarGo's strong 2nd half.

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The 2010 CHONE Projections have been posted. I recommend switching to wide view to see the table.

In case you're curious what would happen if Colorado opened the season with Jeff Kindel, Rex Rundgren, Daniel Mayora and Darin Holcomb in the infield, their projections (among others) are in the link. However, I filtered out the minor leaguers, and here are the projected main contributors for 2010.

Note CHONE tempers its expectations on Tulo and Cargo, which is typical for a projection system for young players. Exceeding those expectations would give the Rockies not only on-field success but offensive starpower the team lacked.

Player	Pos	Age	G	HR	RBI	SB	CS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Helton, Todd	1B	36	134	13	68	0	1	582	.284	.385	.430	.364
Young, Eric	2B	25	149	8	38	39	18	547	.276	.347	.398	.332
Barmes, Clint	2B	31	136	15	58	8	6	509	.258	.306	.420	.314
Stewart, Ian	3B	25	145	22	75	6	4	499	.263	.349	.483	.359
Iannetta, Chris	C	27	105	15	53	0	0	384	.260	.370	.465	.367
Fowler, Dexter	CF	24	124	4	31	21	11	414	.271	.365	.391	.338
Smith, Seth	OF	27	135	15	60	4	2	428	.291	.374	.489	.376
Hawpe, Brad	OF	31	144	23	86	1	2	572	.271	.365	.482	.368
Gonzalez, Carlos	OF	24	134	15	66	12	6	462	.285	.342	.478	.354
Murton, Matt	OF	28	129	10	52	5	2	438	.280	.349	.427	.343
Spilborghs, Ryan	OF	30	127	10	49	7	4	398	.271	.352	.424	.342
Tulowitzki, Troy	SS	25	142	22	80	10	8	580	.292	.369	.497	.373

Should we be surprised few outside of Colorado expected the Rockies to make the playoffs down the stretch? The Rockies won with depth, which just isn't sexy. They are projected to have great depth again in 2010, with only Clint Barmes having a below average wOBA. Their third "most valuable" hitter in 2009 came off the bench in a third of his games. The 3-4 hitters combined for 15 HR in 2008. The team's two All-Stars combined for just eight AB's in the playoffs. Th top three hitters were only 15th in WAR in MLB, behind the Padres, Nats and Mariners as well as every playoff team/contender sans Atlanta and the Giants. In addition to the team's history, is it any wonder the Rockies weren't viewed as legitimate?

The idea that Rockies pitching can be good has yet to truly sink in among casual fans, and Joe Fan/John Kruk don't have the time/desire to evaluate depths of teams. They look for starpower, and admittedly, the Rockies were a little shy in that department last season. Should we see a repeat performance from Cargo and Tulo in 2010, there may be some recognition of the mountain time zone, although truly, it was a joy to expect and then see the Rockies defy expectations down the stretch.

Links

The Rockies and Diamondbacks officially broke ground on their spring training facility in Scottsdale, Arizona yesterday. It is set to be completed approximately 435 days from now, just in time for use for the 2011 season.

As linked in the Rockpile yesterday, Juan Morillo is headed to Japan. Remember when Dan O'Dowd replaced him on the roster in April with some dude from Tampa Bay? Good move.

Patrick Saunders opines that Dexter Fowler deserved better than eighth place in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I would disagree with his assessment that this is a "banner year for rookies," but I am a bit surprised he got no more love than Gerardo Parra or Everth Cabrera.

Fangraphs awarded their 2009 Carter-Batista Award, an award given to a player whose perceived value is most inflated by RBI. The winner was rumored to be acquired by the Rockies before the season, while Bengie Molina tops the three-year leaderboard.

The Hardball Times compares Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw, noting both electric young NL West southpaws have something else in common - traffic on the basepaths. Who would you rather have on your team in 2010? Troy Patterson's answer may surprise you.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Kenshin Kawakami

gondeee — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:39:40 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Atlanta Braves' starter Kenshin Kawakami.

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Atlanta Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami took one month of the regular season to adjust to American baseball. His April starts produced a 7.06 ERA. While it was only four starts, including one really bad start, Kawakami made the adjustments and compiled ERAs of 3.03 and 3.33 the next two months, but because he still wasn't going deep in those games, he only won 3 of 10 starts in May and June. For the year he had the lowest quality start percentage of any of the Braves regular starters, as only half of his starts were considered quality starts.

The real theme of Kawakami's season was that his good games were really good, and his bad games were really bad. In his 12 losses he compiled a 6.24 ERA, giving up 74 hits in 57.2 innings; but in his 7 wins he had a 2.00 ERA and held opponents to a .196 batting average. He became known as the "dragon slayer" for his ability to pitch his best when his opposite on the mound was one of the top pitchers in baseball.

This "dragon slaying" started in Toronto when KK tossed 8 innings of 3-hit ball to best Roy Halladay. He out dueled fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka a month later with 6 strong innings. He matched Clayton Kershaw pitch for pitch with 7 scoreless innings as the Braves bullpen picked up the win. Then he took down Johan Santana and the Mets by tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball. And in his last start he knocked of the Marlins ace Josh Johnson.

In his final month as a starter (August), Kawakami pitched his best; compiling a 2.87 ERA and 5 of his 6 starts were quality starts. The Braves then made him a reliever for the rest of the year to allow Tim Hudson to join the starting rotation. Kawakami made a good adjustment to the pen. While he added two losses to his record, he did compile a 2.63 ERA as a reliever.

Overall KK finished with a respectable 3.86 ERA, but had a 4.21 FIP, so he may not have pitched as well as his ERA shows, or his bad games and his bad first month could have distorted the FIP number. He had the highest walk percentage and extra-base hit percentage of any of the Braves starters, but he received the lowest run support, so that 6-and-12 record looks bad, but it probably should have been a little better.

It's doubtful that the Braves choose to trade Kawakami this off-season, as they currently have 6 starters and one will likely have to go. He showed last year that he can be effective as a major league starter, and he showed that he can adjust to the challenges of the big league game. He knows now what it will take for him to pitch every five days (in Japan he pitched every 6 days), and what it will take to approach 200 innings as a starter. We saw that he was a tireless worker who takes pride in his craft, and he should arrive next spring ready to re-assume his role in the starting rotation and improve upon his positive games of 2009. Perhaps it would help if the Braves put him in the position in the rotation to face the other team's number-1 starter every time out.

Better Luck Next Year, Clayton

Eric Stephen — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:12:44 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Clayton Kershaw had a very good season in 2009, even if he didn't have the wins to show for it.

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Clayton Kershaw had a lot riding on his shoulders in 2009. From the moment he was drafted seventh overall in 2006, the highest pick by the Dodgers in 13 years, the expectations were great for the golden left arm of the former high school teammate of Matthew Stafford in Highland Park, Texas. Over on Dodger Thoughts, nobody wanted to jinx anything, so we began calling him The Minotaur, a mythical creature not to be believed until we saw him with our own eyes. He made it to the big leagues in 2008, and was basically a league average starter as a 20-year old, a remarkable achievement. Expectations were understandably quite high for Kershaw entering 2009.

The 21-year old did not disappoint. He put up an adjusted earned run average of 149, nearly 50% better than league average. Of the 78 starting pitchers in baseball with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, here is where Kershaw ranked:

ERA	2.79	8th
ERA+	149	8th
FIP	3.06	7th
x-FIP	3.94	26th
H/9	6.26	1st
HR/9	0.37	2nd
K/9	9.74	7th

It's hard to get much better than that. Yet, when we glance over a little to the left on the back of his baseball card, we will see his win-loss record at a pedestrian 8-8. Why is that? One big reason was his high walk totals, leading to short outings:

BB/9	4.79	77th
IP/start	5.63	75th

Over his last 11 starts, Kershaw put up a 2.60 ERA while striking out 10.77 batters per nine innings, yet had no wins to show for it. However, it wasn't all Kershaw's fault. At Baseball Prospectus, using play-by-play data, they track a couple of stats to help determine a pitcher's expected win-loss record:

E(W) - Expected Wins: "Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation)."
SNW - Support-Neutral Wins: "the pitcher's expected number of wins assuming he had league-average support."

Here are Kershaw's expected records per Baseball Prospectus:

E(W)	E(L)	SNW	SNL
13.1	6.4	18.0	12.0

Instead of 18-12, the Dodgers went 14-16 in Kershaw's 30 starts. Looking back, Kershaw seemed to have his worst luck when pitching his best. Kershaw had four of the best five starts by a Dodger in 2009, as measured by game score. His top three starts produced zero wins:

Date	Opp	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	GmScr
Apr 15	SF	7.0	1	1	1	1	13	83
Aug 8	Atl	7.0	2	0	0	1	10	82
July 29	StL	8.0	4	0	0	2	7	79

Starting pitchers had a game score of 79 or better in 159 games this season, or 3.3% of all games. Those pitchers were 140-3 in those games, with just 16 no-decisions. Kershaw had three of those no-decisions. No other pitcher in baseball had more than one.

If we lower the threshold to a game score of 70 or better -- which accounts for the top 11.4% of all MLB starts in 2009 -- Kershaw had 10 of those games, the same number as CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. Only four pitchers had more starts with a game score of 70 or higher. Here are Kershaw's numbers in those 10 starts:

IP	H	R	BB/9	K/9	ERA	FIP	BA/OBP/SLG	W-L	No-Dec
69.0	28	4	2.87	10.43	0.52	2.16	.125/.206/.174	4-0	6

Those six no-decisions led baseball. Tim Lincecum was second, with four. The point is that Kershaw didn't have a relatively low win total just because he wasn't able to pitch deep into games. He pitched great often enough, but just didn't get rewarded as much as he should have.

Here's hoping for better luck next year, kid.

SB Nation - Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

Dodgers Waste Golden Opportunity, Decline Arbitration For Wolf, Hudson

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

Kershaw Closing In On Dubious, Meaningless Record

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Dodgers pursuing Roy Halladay

Tuesday Rockpile: CHONE is back in town (not Figgins)

Links

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Kenshin Kawakami

Better Luck Next Year, Clayton