SB Nation - Mike Carp

Full of Hitting Depth

Matthew — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:48:25 -0000

Ryan Langerhans, Bill Hall, Michael Saunders, Jack Hannahan, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Carp and Matt Tuiasosopo. Those are the people currently on the 40-man roster who profile as bench bats or a starter at designated hitter, first base or left field for 2010. That's seven names for six spots (the three starting jobs plus three bench roles) and that's before we sign anyone else. Heaven forbid those are the seven Don Wakamatsu has to pick from for those last six spots come end of Spring Training.

Here is where I would love to throw in some clear facts on which players have options remaining, but MLB's player option rules are murkier than lead and so the best I can do are educated guesses. Langerhans, Hall, Hannahan and Griffey are out of options while it appears that Saunders, Carp and Tuiasosopo all have two options remaining.

If the Mariners add two more bats in the DH/1B mold (say Nick Johnson and Russell Branyan), then clearly Carp and Tui head back to Tacoma. However, that still leaves seven players for six spots. The consensus so far has been that Saunders is penciled in as the starting left fielder and thus Ryan Langerhans would appear to be the odd man out, a victim of a overprotective seven-men bullpen. I wonder though, given Saunders struggles in his Seattle showcase, and the roster situation, would it not make more sense to send Saunders back to Tacoma, he only has 387 PAs at the Triple-A level after all, and start the season with a Langerhans/Hall platoon in left field?

If the team only adds one more hitter, then this is moot, but given that it appears the team considers neither first base nor designated hitter filled, it seems an interesting discussion to be had, one with reasonable arguments on multiple sides.

It is also a key discussion no matter where the second hitter is added. If the team did manage to sign Adrian Beltre, and held onto Jose Lopez, then Chone Figgins would get moved to left field and Michael Saunders demoted. Or if the team inked Mike Cameron, same result for Saunders. In either case a lock for the team replaces one of your optionable players and takes a roster spot up, once again forcing you into a two spots for three guys decision.

69-64, Game Notes

Jeff — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 07:54:46 -0000

More photos » by Kevin P. Casey - AP

The proposed Adrian Beltre Slider Shock Collar requires testing on other subjects prior to implementation.

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At this point in the season, it can be difficult to care. The team isn't going anywhere and we aren't going to see much of any hot new prospects, so why bother watching? Why even bother paying attention? For those of you asking yourselves those questions, I present the following game-by-game guide to why you should stick this thing out:

9/2, Angels: Felix!, chance to help Rangers, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/3, A's: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/4, A's: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/5, A's: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/6, A's: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/8, Angels: Felix!, chance to help Rangers, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/9, Angels: chance to help Rangers, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/10, Angels: chance to help Rangers, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/11, Rangers: chance to help Rangers, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/12, Rangers: chance to help Rangers, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/13, Rangers: Felix!, chance to help Rangers, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/15, White Sox: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/16, White Sox: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/17, White Sox: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/18, Yankees: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/19, Yankees: Felix!, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/20, Yankees: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/22, Rays: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/23, Rays: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/24, Blue Jays: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/25, Blue Jays: Felix!, oh god Beltre's leaving
9/26, Blue Jays: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/27, Blue Jays: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/29, A's: oh god Beltre's leaving
9/30, A's: oh god Beltre's leaving
10/1, A's: Felix!, oh god Beltre's leaving
10/2, Rangers: chance to help Rangers*, oh god Beltre's leaving
10/3, Rangers: chance to help Rangers*, oh god Beltre's leaving
10/4, Rangers: chance to help Rangers*, oh god Beltre's leaving, see ya Junior

* should this condition no longer apply, I recommend that you continue to pay attention on account of oh god Beltre's leaving

I hope this helps. Though the Mariners won't be sprinting towards the playoffs or debuting any potential superstars, there are always reasons to watch. You just have to look for them.

You could make the argument that this was the worst start of Doug Fister's young Major League career. And in arguably the worst start of Doug Fister's young Major League career, he allowed one run and seven baserunners over 7.1 innings against one of the best lineups in baseball. People love him - you could tell from the standing ovation he received on his way out that he's appreciated - and people love him because, in the early going, he's been a breath of fresh air. I mean, yeah, his name obviously gave him the benefit of some extra attention, but he's certainly seized the opportunity he's been given, and that ovation was legit. They didn't stand and applaud because his name is a sexual maneuver. They stood and applauded because he's come out of nowhere to deliver five consecutive pretty good starts.

Today was more about throwing strikes and avoiding solid contact than missing bats, as Fister worked the zone for much of the game and got a lot of feeble swings at his changeup. There was a period there later on where it seemed like he briefly lost sight of Johjima's glove, but he was able to recover, and only a highly dubious leadoff walk to Chone FIggins kept him from his fourth straight start with zero or one walks. As it turns out, this game is pretty simple when you throw a lot of strikes, and that's Fister in a nutshell. Success through simplicity.

Is Fister as good as his 2.94 ERA? No. Of course not. He's not even close. But by avoiding the free pass and striking a couple guys out, he's entered himself into the discussions about the future, offering the sort of back-of-the-rotation skillset that'll never make a manager angry. I still can't believe we are where we are, but we are. This is going to be a nightmare for the people who police the names fans put on their jerseys.

It's tempting to look at Fister's five swinging strikes on 107 pitches today and conclude that, okay, the magic's run out. But that's not how it's done. That's going into the data with a confirmation bias, and though it's definitely possible that tonight signals the end of Fister's wonderfully bizarre run of missed bats, what matters more than his 4.7% rate on 107 pitches is his 8.4% rate on 474 pitches. Data like this is to be interpreted as a pool, rather than as a sequence of individual points. If he's done missing bats, we'll find out soon enough, but it's going to take more than one game against a really good lineup.

If he had enough pitches to qualify, Fister's 23.2% called strike rate would be far and away the highest in baseball. It seems that, for whatever reason, hitters seem a good deal less inclined to swing against him than the league average. It's worth noting that, upon his promotion, he had the highest called strike rate in the PCL, too.

Still sticking with Fister, I noticed that Mike Blowers was heaping praise on him for being so cool, calm, and collected, the implication being that you don't see a lot of rookies with his kind of poise. Which leads me to wonder why we never hear about the rookies who are jittery, flustered, and nervous.

The only thing that disappointed me about Adrian Beltre walking out to the Nutcracker Suite in his first at bat is that Griffey had to go and ruin the surprise in that interview. To this day I still remember watching Sportscenter as a kid and seeing one of the Mariners walk out to the theme from Bonanza at Jay Buhner's behest. I don't remember who it was or why it happened, but there were hats. Cowboy hats.

Something I think a lot of scouting reports are missing on Mike Carp is that he's really ugly.

I wonder if there's going to be any criticism of Ichiro for kind of taking it easy tonight. He didn't bust it down the line in any of his four at bats, including once on a hit that's usually a double, and he wasn't moving around at his normal pace in the outfield. Who am I kidding? Of course there's going to be criticism. Probably from the same people who think he should dive more. You'd think a guy who's been so good and so healthy for so long might know a thing or two about self-preservation and the necessity of maximum effort, but hey, he who yells loudest, and all that.

I can't begin to express how much of a difference it makes to have Ichiro back at the top of the lineup. I don't know how we're eventually going to prepare ourselves for life without him around, but I know it's going to suck.

Based on the amount of torque he puts on his spine when he takes a swing, I think the reason Vladimir Guerrero runs so funny is that he can't feel his legs.

Mariners Make Exactly Zero Surprising Roster Moves

Jeff — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:53:50 -0000

From Baker's blog and a bevy of Twitters, the M's have kicked off September by adding Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, and Adrian Beltre back on to the big league roster. Those aren't the only players you're going to see added this month, but Tacoma's still gunning for the playoffs, so in the interest of maintaining a pleasant relationship with their highest affiliate, the Mariners have for the time being elected to only take its best pitcher and one of its best hitters. Rooting for a minor league team seems fulfilling.

Carp's here to both get some playing time and fill in for Russell Branyan, who may be done for the year with a funny back. On the plus side, Branyan's back issue helps explain his second half and lower his price in the offseason, but then it also serves as a chilling reminder that he's a 33 year old slugging first baseman who's had old player skills his entire life. Going forward he is by no means a sure thing, which is why it'd be nice if we could depend on Carp to provide a little productivity as a fallback. He's no star in the making, as Dave talked about earlier today, but guys have done more with less, so there's some reason for optimism.

Vargas...well I don't know why so many people seem to have written him off already. Granted, little can be expected of him over the course of this final month, since the team is in theory still trying to limit his innings, but considering he didn't throw a single meaningful pitch all of 2008 due to injury, I'm more than happy with his strong changeup and ability to induce swings at balls out of the zone. Vargas has been good in AAA and okay in the Majors, and though he's not RRS, he's not Garrett Olson, either, and it's nice to have him back. Despite the crowded picture, he may very well be a part of our future rotation.

Beltre's back for what will likely be his final five weeks in a Mariner uniform. His time in Seattle has been marked by several long fly balls at home dying on the track, relentless fan criticism, and a contused right testicle. I wonder what's the opposite of a home town discount.

Filling in at Third Base

Matthew — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 02:19:58 -0000

Option One:
1B Mike Carp
2B Jose Lopez/Chris Woodward
SS Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno
3B Russell Branyan

Option Two:
1B Russell Branyan
2B Chris Woodward/Ronny Cedeno
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Jose Lopez/Mike Morse

Option one is the more unconventional answer and certainly punts defense a bit, but let us have a look at the numbers.

DEFENSE

Option One: ?/-5/-10/-10. Total: -25
Option Two: -5/0/-10/-5. Total: -20

Based on UZR, with some question marks as to how Mike Carp and/or Jose Lopez would field given sample sizes, but some legitimately horrendous prospects of seeing Mike Morse on the field. All in all, it looks like it could be about a five run difference or so. And I feel like I am being conservative toward the more traditional option two here. Worth noting is that by moving Branyan over and inserting Carp at the corners, you leave Woodward and Cedeno both open to sub in at the middle infield positions. In the currently proposed Option Two, you are losing half of that flexibility.

The key here is how bad you think Branyan would be at third base. Branyan's actually been mostly a third baseman lately, logging almost 2.5x as many innings there than at first and logging significant time there as recently as last season. His career UZR/150 at 3B is -6.9. I've projected that all the way down to -10 to further worsen the case against.

OFFENSE

Mike Carp's projected wOBA: .323
Chris Woodward's projected wOBA: .287
Difference between two, over a full season: 20 runs

This operates under the assumption that the normal starter's offense does not suffer from moving positions. All numbers come from updated ZiPS projections.

Do it, Wak. I know you love defense. We love it too. But what's more important than defense is offense plus defense and there's just no way to justify starting three terrible middle infielders while you let Mike Carp and Jeff Clement go to waste somewhere.

Mike Carp Is A Mariner

Jeff — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 22:28:51 -0000

Ryan Divish has the news:

We're sitting in the press box and the Mariners were taking early BP when a light headed guy stepped out of the dugout carrying a bat --- and I said, "That's Mike Carp."

So Mike Carp is here. Don't know what the roster move is yet, but we'll have more.

Well, there you go. Carp comes up after hitting .299 in Tacoma with a bunch of walks and a good bit of power. He doesn't make a ton of contact, but as a disciplined lefty bat capable of launching the ball over the fence, his is a name you'll want to remember.

I wouldn't be surprised if this has something to do with Branyan missing tomorrow's game to attend his grandfather's funeral.

Update: the corresponding roster move has been determined - Erik Bedard is going on the DL. Why? Because of course he is. Never, ever, ever believe someone if they tell you that an issue with Bedard's body isn't serious. This is Erik Bedard. It's always serious.

More on Bedard - Stone says his scheduled bullpen this morning was canceled. I'm about to head off to the ballpark, but keep an eye on the Times and TNT blogs for more updates.

UPDATE[16:20]: Bedard was placed on the DL retro to June 7, meaning he is eligible to come off on the 23rd, back at home against San Diego. Mike Carp will start tomorrow at first with Branyan gone to attend a funeral.

UPDATE[17:15]: Jack Zduriencik – Bedard going to Lewis Yocum, team should know more tomorrow. Team still hoping for Bedard to miss the minimum.

Putz Can't Handle The Job

Sam Page — Thu, 14 May 2009 12:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Expect more of this. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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Two weeks ago, Dave Cameron speculated that J.J. Putz was hurt, based on his bad ratios and decreased velocity. Mets fans reacted harshly at the time, preaching a lesson most rarely heed: patience. Well, since then Putz hasn't looked much better. His average fastball velocity, 93.1 MPH, is a full two ticks below his 2008 mark, when he was rehabbing from surgery, and three MPH less than his 2007 speed. His K/9 is an awful 5.68 and his BB/9 an equally disappointing 4.74. What's worse is that the problem may be indicative of a larger trend:

Year	FB vel.	SwStr%	O-Sw%	Contact%
2006	95.6	15.0%	31.1%	69.7%
2007	94.7	12.6%	24.7%	73.3%
2008	95.1	11.0%	24.7%	74.1%
2009	93.1	7.8%	15.8%	82.6%

(Fastball Velocity, Swinging Strike %, Swings on balls outside the zone%, Contact%)

While this chart doesn't indicate a steady decline, he certainly isn't getting better and this year looks far and away to be his worst. The problem is no mystery: he's not throwing hard enough and he's getting hit hard. That, combined with bad control, and he's pitching like a mop-up man at best. His illusory sub-4 ERA is being sustained by a .252 BABIP and only one homerun so for, neither of which are sustainable if he continues to pitch to contact. His tRA of 4.89 is second worst in the bullpen to Sean Green's. He looks hurt, and regardless of whether he is or not, it's time to take the 8th inning out of his hands and give it to Parnell full time.

And despite many people, including Omar Minaya, thinking the Putz trade was a huge steal, it looks like the joke's on the Mets. The Mariners sent us damaged goods, while Mike Carp OPSes 1.013, Endy Chavez has already been 6 runs better than Gary Sheffield , and Jason Vargas looks like the back-of-the-rotation starter we so desperately need. Woops.

TotalZone on First Base Prospects

erik — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 14:45:36 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Travis Ishikawa gives thanks for the ability to pick it at first base.

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Rally and Sackmann have given us TotalZone stats for minor leaguers, which can be found at position players' pages at Minor League Splits. Sackmann provided the data, Rally created TotalZone, which he has long used with major league players. To find out more about these stats and how they translate to the majors, I'll refer you here.

Here are the positions we've looked at so far:

SS | CF | 2B | 3B

We'll look at the top first base prospects now before finishing off with corner outfielders. Remember, as with any fielding metric, the usual caveats apply.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Lars Anderson	BOS	20	A+	102	15	-2	-3
Logan Morrison	FL	20	A+	124	191	-4	-5
Angel Villalona	SFG	17	A	121	180	2	3
Kyle Blanks	SDP	21	AA	128	175	8	11
Freddie Freeman	ATL	18	A	124	198	-3	-4
Gaby Sanchez	FL	24	AA	86	117	5	11
Kila Ka'aihue	KC	24	AA	59	98	-5	-13
Travis Ishikawa	SFG	24	AA	68	91	5	14
Brandon Allen	CHW	22	A+	108	148	7	12
Beau Mills	CLE	21	A+	90	139	-2	-4
Chris Marrero	WAS	19	A+	74	109	1	2
Nick Evans	NYM	22	AA	70	98	5	13
Mike Carp	SEA	22	AA	69	95	4	11

Lars Anderson was -4 at two levels last year and -18 the previous. There were concerns about his defense when he was drafted, but the scouting reports say he drastically improved, and TZ agrees.
Same story for Logan Morrison; he improved upon a -11 last season.
Angel Villalona rates out as pretty neutral. Scouts like his hands and agility, yet at the same time they give the big fella a 0% chance of returning to third base.
Kyle Blanks is a massive human being, but he's shown some surprising fielding ability and the Padres believe he could possibly handle a corner outfield position. That may be a little wishful thinking on their part, but you can't blame them for wanting to get his bat into the lineup.
Gaby Sanchez was the favorite to win the Marlin's first baseman gig, but he missed most of spring training after a collision with Lasting Milledge and struggled after coming back. Sanchez will go down to AAA, while the Marlins moved Cantu over to first and will start the light-hitting Emilio Bonaficio at third. Not only was Sanchez solid at first last season, he was also +8 runs at third.
Salt in the wound -- Mike Jacobs was a -18 defender in TZ last year. -18! Kila Ka'ailhue may stink at 1B, but he can't do any worse than Jacobs. For Ka'ailhue's career ('05-'08) he's +8.
Travis Ishikawa came out of nowhere last year, not only on offense but also with the glove. Counting AAA, he was worth 13 runs. For now it looks like he will be the Giants' every day first baseman.
Scouts say Nick Evans needs to work on defense, but through '05-'08 he has been worth +22 runs.

The JJ Putz Three-Way Trade

Peter Bendix — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 10:00:10 -0000

Mets obtain JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed.

Indians obtain Joe Smith and Luis Valbuena.

Mariners obtain Franklin Gutierrez, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrara and Maikel Cleto

Although it only involves one big name, this 12-player trade probably qualifies as a blockbuster. Let’s examine the deal.

For the Mets: Obviously, Putz is the prize in this trade. In Putz, the Mets get a guy who was perhaps the most dominant reliever in the game in 2006 and 2007, before running into injury woes. However, it is those injury woes that allowed the Mets to get Putz without giving up any amazing prospects. Although Putz returned to action in 2008, he didn’t quite return to form (although he was very good), and questions remain about whether he can stave off injuries in the future. Furthermore, he won’t be cheap: Putz is due $5 million this year, and has a club option worth $8.6 million for next year. Yes, that’s probably below market value, but it’s not chump change either. If healthy, Putz can be a dominant force in the back end of the Mets bullpen.

Reed is very similar to Endy Chavez – actually, Reed is younger and cheaper than Chavez – but is probably miscast as an everyday player, especially in a corner. He can have some value as a defensive-minded fourth outfielder, but the Mets should still be looking for an everyday corner outfielder.

Green has posted xFIPs over right around 4.00 over the last two seasons, and has some value in a major league bullpen. He’s probably not quite as good as Joe Smith, but is worth having as a middle reliever.

The Mets are in the position where they can afford to gamble on someone like Putz. The money is of very little consequence to them, and a healthy Putz would be a tremendous benefit to their bullpen. They gave up value, but nothing irreplaceable.

However, Omar Minaya should not assume that Putz will be healthy for 70 or 80 innings this year. The Mets’s problem in the past has been an embarrassing lack of depth, and this trade does little to help. If Putz (or Francisco Rodriguez) gets hurt, the Mets bullpen will once again be exposed, with little to help them in the short-term. The pen has the chance to be above-average, but also the chance to be awful. For a team like the Mets, which harbors legitimate playoff hopes in 2009, they had better make sure that they have a Plan B and Plan C for their bullpen.

For the Indians: The Tribe once again cashes in on the presence of Grady Sizemore by trading a guy who profiles better as a center fielder. They did this with Coco Crisp in 2005 (not that that worked out particularly well for either team), and they do it again by trading Gutierrez. Gutierrez fields (and hits) like a center fielder, but was playing right field for the Indians. Certainly, his defense was valuable there, but it’s a lot easier to find a corner outfielder than a center fielder. In return, the Indians get another legitimate piece to add to their bullpen in Joe Smith, and an intriguing second baseman in Luis Valbuena.

In his first two years in the majors, the 23-year-old Smith has posted xFIPS of 3.73 and 3.80. His tRA* has been 4.25 and 4.27 (remember, to convert tRA* to an ERA scale, subtract .40 from tRA*). He’s a side-arming righty who shouldn’t face lefties in important situations, but strikes out over eight batters per nine innings and gets grounders on over 60% of his balls in play. There’s a good amount of value in a pitcher like that.

Valbuena, 23, is probably not ready for the majors. He had a nice season in 2008, hitting .301/.380/.430 between double- and triple-A, and showing excellent plate discipline in the process (he walked 59 times and struck out 69 times). I don’t know much about his defense, but it is supposed to be above-average. His defense is vital: as a second baseman, Valbuena could make it in the majors, but if he has to move to left field he probably won’t hit enough. Valbuena is not terribly young and didn’t show much offensively prior to the 2008 season, so he will have to prove that his 08 isn’t a fluke.

This trade is interesting for the Indians. They cash in on Gutierrez’s value as a center fielder, but they didn’t add a starting pitcher or a ready-for-the-majors infielder, their two biggest needs. Mark Shapiro clearly felt that this would be the best trade the Indians could find for Gutierrez, who has more value for another team than he does for the Indians. Smith will be a nice cog in what should be an above-average bullpen, and Valbuena has value as a young second baseman who can hit a little too. However, it appears that Shapiro made this deal with the long-term in mind, rather than as a short-term fix to the Tribe’s problems. That’s not necessarily bad, but it means the Indians still have more moves to make for the 09 season.

For the Mariners: They are the winners of this deal. They have absolutely no use for a reliever like Putz, who’s a big injury risk and is due nearly $14 over the next two years, no matter how good he is when healthy. They are able to add both quality and quantity to their system in return for a guy who had little value to them. They essentially swap Reed for Chavez, which is probably a wash – Chavez is probably a bit better, but is older and more expensive too. They lose Green, but again, he’s hardly an integral piece, and the bullpen is the least important part of a rebuilding club.

The key to this deal for Seattle is Franklin Gutierrez. Yes, he’s a career .258/.308/.409 hitter – and he’s been awful against right-handers (.246/.298/.378 in his career). However, his defense is off-the-charts. He has rated as the best right fielder in baseball for two years in a row, according to John Dewan’s plus/minus numbers. Other metrics have his defense rated similarly high. If he puts his up a 700 OPS with awesome defense in center field, he’s a very valuable player. Furthermore, he’s only going to be 26 next season, and his minor league numbers suggest that he could possibly improve offensively. Finally, he won’t even be arbitration eligible until 2010, and can’t be a free agent until 2013.

The Mariners also buy low on Aaron Heilman. While he posted a 5.21 ERA last year, he also had a very high home run rate and a low strand rate. It’s unclear whether Seattle intends to use Heilman as a starter or a reliever, but either way, Safeco should help build his trade value back up, allowing the Mariners to spin him to another team if they so desire.

In Carp, Vargas, Carrara and Cleto, the Mariners add additional depth to their system. Each of these players has a legitimate chance of contributing at the major league level, even if none projects to be a star (although Cleto has a higher ceiling than the other players, as well as more risk). Every minor league system needs guys like this, and occasionally they outperform expectations. The fact that they are additional players in this deal, rather than the only players, makes this an outstanding deal for the Mariners.

While Seattle may not have received any star players, the fact that they were able to get this much for Putz, Reed, and Green is impressive. Their outfield defense should be spectacular (and could help drive up value on some of their mediocre pitchers), and they added a tremendous amount of quality depth to their minor league system. All in exchange for a reliever who has extensive injury concerns and is due almost $14 million over the next two years.

While Jack Z and company have only been in charge for a short time, all signs point to an impressive regime righting the ship in the northwest.

What Trading For J.J. Putz Means For The Mets

Eric Simon — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:24:31 -0000

Year	K%	BB%	tRA
2006	34.32%	4.29%	2.38
2007	30.86%	5.08%	3.16
2008	26.54%	13.27%	4.53

Assuming good health, the Mets' acquisition of J.J. Putz (pŏŏts) gives them the best tandem relief corps in baseball, and in the last three days Omar Minaya has moved mountains (where mountains = piles of cash and prospects) to address the team's most conspicuous shortcoming from the past two seasons.

There will be plenty of debate over who won this deal or, specifically, if the Mets did well for themselves here. What is clear is that the Mets improved themselves for 2009 -- considerably so, one could argue -- and that they have turned a glaring weakness into an obvious strength in a very short period of time.

After the trade was finalized, there was some instant concern that Putz might not actually be so keen on setting up, considering that he was arguably the best reliever in baseball in 2006 and 2007. I was happy to learn that Putz is okay with the situation, and he certainly seems excited to dive into a pennant race.

Having two legitimate closers in the bullpen is a luxury, but it shouldn't be considered overkill for a couple of important reasons.

You want your best reliever to pitch in the highest leverage situations, but since quite often those innings are not the ninth inning, and since closers are almost exclusively used to pitch the ninth inning, the vast majority of those pre-ninth inning high leverage spots are handled by your team's sub-optimal relievers (see: Duaner Sanchez). Putz gives the Mets an eighth inning guy who is every bit as good (if not better) than their ninth inning guy, and they are in a fairly unique position to have a dominant pitcher handle those pre-ninth high leverage spots.

For most teams, if their closer goes down with an injury or some other nondescript pitching malady that renders him incapable of contributing meaningfully, they're largely fooked (see: Billy Wagner circa 2007-2008). If something happens to Francisco Rodriguez (injury, Martian abduction, etc.), the Mets no longer have to rely on Sanchez or Pedro Feliciano, or retreads like Luis Ayala. This is a good thing.

I absolutely hate losing Endy Chavez. He's a superlative fielder and a bleh hitter, but he's valuable enough to justify keeping around for more than nostalgic/irrational Endy-love reasons. Jeremy Reed was once a top prospect who will replace Endy's performance for the most part, even if his intangible awesomeness will be woefully inadequate.

Sean Green replaces Joe Smith, and despite giving up five years in age, the net effect on the Mets' bullpen is negligible.

As for the prospects, I like Mike Carp more than most do, but he struggles against lefties and he hasn't showed enough power yet to get anyone especially excited. Jason Vargas is dreck, and neither Maikel Cleto nor Ezequiel Carrera is going to have an impact any time soon, if at all (Cleto is interesting for his high-nineties fastball, but his breaking ball is blah).

Aaron Heilman and his tight, tight pants have found a new home in Seattle, and I wish him well. I supported him far longer than was reasonable, and I still support him, though even I'll admit that it was time for a change. He wanted to be a starter, but the Mets wanted him in the bullpen and Heilman did what he was told. Even after his most miserable failures on the mound, he answered questions politely and never blamed anyone else for his mistakes. You can certainly argue that he should do those things anyway, but in a league where a lot of players are reluctant to talk about the bad times, Heilman was always a man about those things.

Getting back to Putz, the biggest concern there is health, as he missed time in 2008 with rib cage inflammation and a hyper-extended pitching elbow. His post-injury numbers were very good, though he was plagued by some control problems that were entirely absent during his dominant seasons in 2006 and 2007. We can chalk some of it up to a bit of rust, and even if he has lost some of his command he will still be a great pitcher, if not the utterly sublime reliever he once was.

Want some outside perspective on the deal? Keith Law likes the trade for the Mets. Ditto Dan Szymborski. Matthew Carruth at FanGraphs agrees. Lookout Landing has Mariner fan reaction. Let's Go Tribe does likewise for the Indians.

As with all trades, this one will be judged twice: Once at inception and again in retrospect once all of the principals have settled and established themselves (or not). The latter will have to wait, but in the case of the former, I think the Mets are a clear winner here.

Poll

Are you happy with the J.J Putz trade?

Totally. The Mets wound up with the best player in the deal.

430 votes

Meh, it's kind of a wash. I love Endy.

54 votes

No way. Omar totally screwed the pooch.

23 votes

507 votes | Poll has closed

The Big Deal's Little Deal

Jay — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 08:33:05 -0000

Ryan on the Big Deal: Here's the entire trade (former teams in parentheses):

The Seattle Mariners receive: RHP Aaron Heilman (NYM), OF Franklin Gutierrez (CLE), OF Endy Chavez (NYM), 1B Mike Carp (NYM), RHP Maikel Cleto (NYM), LHP Jason Vargas (NYM), and OF Ezekiel Carrera (NYM)

The New York Mets receive: RHP J.J. Putz (SEA), OF Jeremy Reed (SEA), RHP Sean Green (SEA)

The Cleveland Indians receive: RHP Joe Smith (NYM), 2B Luis Valbuena (SEA)

From an overall view, this deal was all about the Mets getting J.J. Putz and the Mariners getting as much talent as they could. The Indians were just facilitating the larger deal, though that's not how we as Tribe fans look at it. New York has made rebuilding their bullpen an offseason priority after losing the division because they couldn't hold leads down the stretch. To that end, they've recently signed Francisco Rodriguez, the best closer on the market, and now they've traded for Putz, a closer in his own right, to set up for Rodriguez. I would imagine Putz wasn't happy at the prospect, since the demotion in roles means his future earnings potential decreases significantly.

Seattle ended 2008 needing talent in a lot of areas, and while there's no top-flight talent heading their way in this deal, the infusion of both major-league and minor-league players (seven in all) will certainly help their outfield defense in the short-term, and will strengthen their minor-league system in the long-term. Replacing Raul Ibanez and Jeremy Reed with Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez will be a massive defensive improvement. And with ball-in-play pitchers like Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn in their rotation, they're going to need all the defense they can get.

Jay on the Little Deal: CF Franklin Gutierrez for Mariners 2B Luis Valbuena, an advanced prospect, and Mets reliever Joe Smith, a righty who just completed a successful first full season in the majors. As an aside, the name Maikel Cleto frightens me.

Gutierrez of course played right field for the Indians but was always a center fielder. They say that weakness invites aggression, but Indians fans know that depth at a skill position invites a trade — that principle is the reason Asdrubal is on our roster and Coco isn't. But if Coco's skills suggested a trade would be productive, Gutierrez's skills flat-out demanded it. He was one of the best defensive outfielders in the game last season, possessed of both staggering range and a plus-plus arm, and he may well blossom into being the game's very best center fielder. With us, he's a weak-hitting corner outfielder, soaking up a few more balls than anyone has a right to expect. With the Mariners, he becomes chief defender of one of the most spacious outfields in the game.

Gutierrez will be eligible for arbitration starting in 2010 and will reach free agency after the 2012 season. Like many high-tools-low-skills players signed as teenagers out of Latin America, he's been out of options for years, which creates a real flexibility problem when he goes into long slumps at the plate. People ... I understand that you loved Gootz. We all love Gootz. Defensive standouts are part of the aesthetic beauty of the game — they help the home team a little but help the viewing experience even more — hell, I still get misty about Alex Escobar. But let's be real about this player — he got 741 PA over the last two seasons and his line drive rate over that period was just 15.8%. For context, out of 138 qualified major league hitters this past season, only four had a lower rate than that. Yes, we risk that he might explode as a hitter and jack 25 home runs at some point, but the Mariners risk four years of struggles to hit .260. At the plate, he's more high-risk than high-reward, and all of the above is a package of trade-offs that looks a lot better in CF than in RF.

Joe Smith is only the second Joe Smith in MLB history, which I think is kind of remarkable. (The other one was a catcher who had a 14-game cup of coffee with the Yankees in 1913.) He made the big-league club (and was added to the Mets 40-man roster) out of spring training in 2007, and he didn't give up a run until his 18th appearance in the majors. He stayed in the bigs for most of 2007 and all of 2008, putting him one year of service time away from arbitration as a Super Two (assuming he stays in the majors) but under team control all the way through 2013.

Smith also has two option years remaining, which is more than we can say for Ed Mujica, just for one example. Smith becomes the 8th reliever on the 40-man roster with at least one option remaining going in 2009, in addition to four relievers (K-Wood, Masa, Betancourt and Mujica) who can't be sent to the minors. Option rights can be quite significant for players in complementary roles, which includes all but the very best relievers, and the Indians clearly value those rights.

Ryan: Last season, Smith pitched in 82 games for the Mets, usually from the seventh inning on. Based on his Fangraphs profile, he throws a high-80s fastball, a slider, and an occasional changeup. He's a ground-ball pitcher, always a plus for a reliever, though he he's walked 4.35 BB/IP in his professional career, higher than you'd hope for a late-inning guy. The bullpen situation is way too jumbled up right now to guess where he's going to end up in the Wedge pecking order, but I'd put him in the Lewis/Betancourt/Perez group as of today.

Jay: Valbuena literally means "good value," from the Latin root vale, which variously means strength or worth. Then again, sometimes vale means "farewell," as in "ave atque vale," so you could argue Valbuena means "good riddance." Then again, it could also be from the Latin root valle, which is more like an assistant, which suggests that Valbuena could be a good complementary player, or perhaps just good at making assists. (Hat-tip to randallhank.)

Valbuena got his first look at the majors just three months ago, as a September call-up. He seems to have emerged as a quality defender at second base and a canny hitter, albeit one who may not ever have any pop. He definitely fits the Indians pattern of targeting advanced prospects who are excess depth on other clubs, and especially their pattern of targeting infielders with unusually selective approaches at the plate. Evidently they feel that middle infielders with minimal pop but the ability to draw walks end up being under-valued by other clubs, a trend that stretches from Carroll to Asdrubal to Rivero and now to Valbuena.

In 2007, Valbuena played in Double-A at the rather young age of 21, and while his overall numbers were quite underwhelming — 693 OPS — he seemed to hit into a fair amount of bad luck — Sackmann puts his 2007 neutral OPS at 766 — and he maintained a healthy walk rate of 9.5% despite frightening no one. In 2008, his walk rate was even better — 11.2% in Double-A and 11.5% in Triple-A, numbers that qualify as highly unusual for a 22-year-old middle infielder at that level. His overall numbers rose even more significantly in 2008, as he posted and 864 OPS in Double-A, 748 OPS in Triple-A, 831 neutral OPS across both levels — and here I will remind you again, all of this at age 22. UPDATE: The icing on the cake is that he's got a 901 OPS in 38 games in the Venezuelan Winter League. He's spending three months as the starting 2B for the Cardenales de Lara, whose starting shortstop is ... Asdrubal Cabrera.

Our Progress score system has Valbuena around 8.0 for 2008, right with our best-performing position player prospects from last year (Santana and Rivero) and with more experience in Triple-A and the majors than any of our best prospects. He's very obviously one of the best ten prospects in our suddenly burgeoning farm system, and as he sits on the cusp of the majors, you could argue he's in the top five. Marcels has him pencilled in for a 766 OPS in 2009, in the majors at age 23. He doesn't have Asdrubal's star potential, but his power will almost certainly improve as he goes through his mid-20s, and he's got a solid chance to be a core player.

Ryan: I think adding Valbuena precludes any major infielder signings or trades, in fact I think the Indians pursued this trade only after they looked at all possible free agent signings or trades for established major leaguers. I would think this gives new life to Josh Barfield or Andy Marte, depending on whether the brain trust decides to move Peralta to third permanently. The problem with waiting until Spring Training to figure out who to keep is that three-fourths of the infield wouldn't know what position they were playing until the Marte/Barfield competition had a winner. It's probably for the best if the Indians send Marte on his way this winter, let Peralta play third every day in Spring Training, and have Carroll and Barfield handle second.

If this is it for the infield, then I think it's now on to adding another starting pitcher or even looking at one of the free agent corner outfielders. I don't think the deal does a whole lot for the 2009 Indians, though it may very well turn out a very good trade for the club two or three years from now if Valbuena pans out.

Jay: Somewhat overlooked in the discussion so far is the fact that Valbuena bats from the left side, and lefty-batting infielders (other than 1B) have extra value because the great majority are righty batters. It's easier to throw a lefty rookie into the fire because it's easy to find a viable righty to spell him off the bench. The Indians may well be considering breaking camp with a platoon of Valbuena and Barfield at 2B, backed up by Carroll, with the long-discussed position shift for Peralta and Cabrera going into effect. That at the very least has now become the Indians' worst case scenario, but with crappy options for the infield abounding league-wide, maybe it's just ... the scenario.

Valbuena was just added to the 40-man roster this past September, and he'll enter 2009 with just 28 days of service time. If he breaks camp with the Indians and stays in the majors, he'll play the next three seasons at or near minimum salary, hit arbitration starting with the 2012 season, and reach free agency after the 2014 season. If he splits his time between the majors and minors this season, you can move both of those back one year. He has three option years remaining.

Breaking this down according to contractual value, the Indians traded four seasons of Gutierrez for 11 seasons of control over Valbuena and Smith — like it or not, this is the classic M.O. for the Shapiro front office, but at least in this case, those 11 seasons will start to be cashed in immediately, not several years down the road. That's the long view, though. The short view is that we traded from a position of depth — we have, like, ninety weak-hitting outfielders — to bolster one part of the roster where we badly needed depth — middle infield — and another part where you can never have enough — the bullpen. Frankie Gootz, we will miss him, and he was the most specialest and our most favoritest weak-hitting corner outfielder, but he probably would never have been much more than a complementary player on our club.

Some may question whether we got enough value back for a player of Gutierrez's talent and potential, but there can be little doubt that these two new players are far better fits for our particular needs. And regardless of that, how cool is it that we screwed the Tigers out of the best two available closers in the space of about 30 hours?