SB Nation - Chris Johnson

Monday Morning Post-Meetings Link Fest

davoag — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Billy Smith II - AP

New Brandon Lyon puts on a 15 million dollar jersey. Prices at the team store sure have gone up!

Have we all recovered? That was a hectic week as the Astros wheeled and dealed in Indianapolis. Houston came away with two relievers and a shiny new third baseman, while losing two prospects in trade and two more in the Rule V draft. Kudos to every contributor on TCB for covering all those moves during the Winter Meetings with both timeliness and depth of analysis. We all certainly have much to discuss between now and February when pitchers and catchers report. Until then, here's all the links fit to print from the past few days:

I know lots of stuff happened, but does baseball need the winter meetings? Dejan Kovasevic doesn't think so.
If you missed clack's excellent breakdown on the newest Astro Pedro Feliz and what to expect from him offensively, here it is. Look for some more analysis about Brandon Lyon from a Pitch f/x perspective later this week.
One of the biggest announcements out of Indy was that Peter Gammons is leaving ESPN for MLB Network and MLB.com. This is good news for all of us since keeping one of the best in the business around has to be a top priority. Whenever I write a story/column like this (roundup-style), I think about how Gammons pretty much invented it. Now that's influence. His final column is definitely worth reading.
Saturday was the deadline to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Houston offered contracts to all their eligible guys, but that was not the case with all the teams around the league. In fact, the Matt Capps-Pittsburgh saga turned out to be the most compelling storyline of the night. There was a long list of interesting guys that were released Saturday and Tim Dierkes over at MLBTradeRumors.com runs them down here.
Of course, the Astros have no need of a guy like Garrett Atkins anymore, but Ryan Church is available and needed on this roster. Another interesting guy is Ryan Garko, who is listed as a first baseman, but did play 12 games in the outfield last season and could be a good lefty matchup guy off the bench. Two of the guys on that list were re-signed by the Indians, so that list could dwindle quickly.
Here is an updated version of the 2010 Draft Order. Go ahead and bookmark this page, since it will be updated as more guys sign.
One bad sign for the Astros' 2010 draft hopes is this report from the Boston Globe implying that Jose Valverde may have priced himself out of the market. I am aghast that his agent thinks he can get 12-13 million for Valverde, or that Fernando Rodney asked for 30m over three years from the Astros. If you were incredulous after the Lyon signing, can you imagine the apoplectic shock if Rodney signed for that much? Sheesh.
FanGraphs' Dave Cameron on the marginal value of a win. The article is ostensibly about the Rays trading and paying Rafael Soriano, but Cameron name-drops the Astros to illustrate how silly it is to overpay for wins in their situation.
Another excellent read for anyone who is on this esteemed website. Print this out and refer to it every time you read an article on here. Especially mine, since I'm often wrong, as my wife always reminds me.
Did you ever want to ask Brad Mills five questions about the upcoming season? Well, hopefully they were these five questions. If not, you may or may not be out of luck.
The Harvard boys bring it again, breaking down the payroll efficiency of major league teams in 2009. Of course, the Astros fall into that bottom 15 category and really don't get a lot out of wins out of their large payroll. This isn't because they don't spend money, it's because they spend their money the wrong way (re: Lee, Carlos and Matsui, Kazuo).
Here's a roundup of the local bloggers and storymongers, as Brian McTaggart weighs in on what the 2010 roster could look like. Alyson Footer talks about many doings around the team, including Milo Hamilton winning yet another award. The picture Astros County had up the other day with Milo in a crown was priceless. Richie Justice likes the Feliz signing, but thinks the team will still give Chris Johnson a shot at the everyday job. I know the organization has high hopes for him, but I wish the local guys would stop touting Johnson. He's never shown good power, has a history of injuries and didn't hit much at Round Rock. Why should this guy get a shot at the starting job with the big league club? I'd rather see Mark Saccomanno there than Johnson.
Farmstros does a good job breaking down the Astros prospective Rule V selections next season. Jose Altuve is a really interesting addition to that list, since he had an excellent season in 2009, but hasn't played past Low A ball yet.
I wonder what Houston offers on the post-game buffet? Really, though, can these players be expected to give up full-sized candy bars? Where are we living, Communist Russia?
Finally, a little tidbit from Buster Olney's latest blog post sent me to this really neat website run by former MLB catcher Brent Mayne. The Art of Catching provides tips and tricks on playing one of the hardest to define defensive positions on the field. This is why I like being a baseball fan.

Ed Wade and the Astros' busy week: How would you grade it?

DyingQuail — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:36:20 -0000

via cache.daylife.com What grade will Ed Wade receive?

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It's been a crazy few days. Tension mounted. Emotions ran high. Ed Wade made headlines. The dust has officially settled in Indianapolis, but not so much around these parts. Tomorrow, I imagine that Matt Lindstrom, Brandon Lyon, and Pedro Feliz will be paraded in front of the media and don their Astros jerseys.

As the people who've weaseled their ways into the publishing content at this place, we gotten to be outspoken about our feelings. Front and center so to speak. I'll quickly recap them:

On Pedro Feliz (whom clack deemed to be not a bad signing):

Yes, that defense has deteriorated with his age and yes, he doesn't get on base. But, Feliz is a much better player at this point than Blum and can provide a good stopgap until the club feels Chris Johnson is ready to go.

On Brandon Lyon (who made me lose sleep):

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

On Matt Lindstrom (who won Ed Wade good will):

Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.

Opinions, outside of ours, varied around these parts—and rightfully so. But let's not let those varied opinions, and our respective rights to them, stand in the way of forming some kind of consensus opinion on the subject. You have to reactions we had and the links where you can review the various discussions surrounding them; basically everything you'd ever need to evaluate Ed Wade's big week. So what say you?

Is Spring Training Enough?

davoag — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Richard Justice recently opined on his blog that the Houston Astros are going to take a 'wait-and-see' approach to top prospects Jason Castro and Chris Johnson. Neither will have a job locked up going into spring training and will need solid performances there in order to make the Opening Day rosters.

I like Castro quite a bit and there's been talk around here about whether the Astros should save some money and go with a youth movement in 2010. Castro, Johnson, Tommy Manzella and company would probably struggle at first, but if they're big league material, they will find their way eventually. That's not the point of Justice's blog post, though. The Astros are apparently basing that decision on spring training performance.

My question is this: why do teams base such crucial decision on such a small sample size? Do you really get a good enough look at a player in spring training to determine whether they'd make such an important decision with a player? I'm not talking about just prospects here, but with non-roster invitees and other players. How do you evaluate a player on such a small subset of play?

In the 2009 Grapefruit League, Michael Bourn led the Astros with 103 plate appearances. The rest of the regulars had around 60-70 plate appearances each, including guys like Jason Smith and Chris Johnson. Obviously, Bourn was the Astros' most improved player in the regular season, but had a .685 OPS in Spring Training. Smith had an .885 OPS in 65 plate appearances, which basically locked up a position for him on the opening day roster. Smith, of course, got no hits in 25 at-bats in the majors before being designated to Round Rock.

Of the regulars in the Houston lineup last season, only two had higher OPS numbers in Kissimmee than during the regular season (Lance Berkman and Miguel Tejada). The rest performed much better once the games started counting for something. The question then becomes, why do we use such a small sample size to determine if a player will break camp with the big league team?

I realize the team probably evaluates other things, like preparation, handling of the pitching staff, defense, and lots more off-the-field stuff that can't be quantified. Still, time and time again we see a guy have a huge spring numbers-wise and it changes how the club looks at him. It's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophesy. If the organization likes a player, they'll use his numbers as a justification for breaking camp with him. If they don't, the numbers are a way to make the cut, even though they don't tell us anything useful.

Houston hasn't always been run this way. Under Gerry Hunsicker, the team cut ties with Shane Reynolds, even though he was healthy enough to pitch 167 innings for Atlanta that season. Reynolds had won 103 games as an Astro and been the Opening Day starter. Yet, the team still made an objective evaluation of his talent level at the time and made the cut during spring training. I'm not convinced that this front office can do that yet, since I don't think they have the decision-making autonomy from owner Drayton McLane that Hunsicker did, but they could surprise me.

With Miguel Tejada most likely on his way out, Tommy Manzella is in as Astros Shortstop in 2010

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:47:09 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Tommy Manzella and Michael Bourn would give the Astros one of the best defensive SS-CF combos in the NL Central

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Straight from Eddy Wade's mouth:

At this point, we’re prepared to commit to Tommy Manzella playing shortstop.

The possibility remains that Tejada could return as a third baseman.

Tommy Manzella grades anywhere from good to very good at shortstop. AstroAndy did a fine comparison between Manzella and former Astro Adam Everett a few months ago. Replacing this kind of defense with Manzella's defensive abilities at short would definitely be a boon.

As far as being able to retain Miguel Tejada as a third baseman, I don't know if that would be in the cards. His Bill James projection for 2010 is actually better in terms of runs created per game as compared to 2009. The million dollar-plus question will be if that production is worth spending X amount of dollars more on the veteran Tejada vs. some sort of platoon with Blum/Kepp/C. Johnson.

With Lance Berkman, Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui and Jeff Keppinger already assured of spots on the club in 2010, Ed Wade will have decisions to make on which other infielders to bring in. It seems as if Tommy Manzella will play shorstop, as a trade or free agent signing isn't likely. While Chris Johnson has shown promise, don't look past Jeff Keppinger as a good option to be a starter on this team. He's not going to get David Wright AB's, but he is right at the peak of his career and is looked at as being a solid contributor in 2010. A fairly cheap contract makes him nearly as attractive as Johnson for the cost conscious Astros.

Bottom line, this was the first real indication of what changes we can expect in our 2010 Astros. For those who missed having a superb defensive shortstop, your wish looks like it may be coming true. Tommy Manzella will need time to adjust to major league hitting, but he has shown the ability to approach Everett's level offensively. That may not wow you, but remember that the cost is right with Manzella. Get used to hearing that sort of rationalization from the Astros camp. Keep in mind as well that Gio Mier is drawing rave reviews as the best defensive shortstop from the 2009 draft and his bat has been better than advertised so far as a professional. View Manzella however you want- a defensive savant, a stopgap, Adam Everett, 2.0. He makes the league minimum, and when your team is dominated by three player's salaries, those are the sort of trade offs a team must make.

As for Miguel Tejada, it doesn't appear that he will be back as an Astro, despite the door being left open for his return. He turned in a nice offensive season and as stated earlier is supposed to be even better in 2010. It's probable that another club gives him a shot at third, and does so with a contract whose value is close to eight figures per season. The Astros have three serviceable to slightly above serviceable options at third base, which leaves Tejada as the odd man out in my mind.

What should the Astros do with their shoe string budget?

DyingQuail — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:16:28 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Rich Hill is definitely my pick for sexy-under-the-radar reclamation project. He still has a few prime years in his tank and is a major head case, it seems. From we know of Arnsberg, that's right in his wheelhouse.

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The title is somewhat facetious. The Astros are guaranteed to spend around $80 million, as is, heading into 2010, but there should be another $10-15 million to allocate to filling the gaps. So where should Ed Wade and co. be focusing on allocating it?

In my mind, there are few options:

Find someone for 3rd base. Geoff Blum isn't getting any younger and Chris Johnson isn't getting any better at getting on base. Jeff Keppinger was great as a platoon there, but I think we can find a better option. This option could include re-signing Tejada and slotting him at 3rd, but I doubt that happens in the wake of the Blum re-signing. If we really wanted to go for it: Chone Figgins (probably a multi-year deal with at least $7-8 million on the table each year).
Sign LaTroy Hawkins back to have a strong depth for the likely closer by committee situation I can feel building. There are a few former closers who carry the label to which I'm sure Ed Wade is keen, and my Interesting rehab-esque-project of the bunch is Billy Wagner.
Sign a top-teir reclamation project for Arnsberg to get behind. Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer are probably the cream of that crop. Both are coming off years where they were DLed and in all honesty I don't know the exact status of either of the two, but if they could log 100-120IP for us in 2010 just think of the marginal gain. That's replacing Hampton or Ortiz' production for probably not a whole lot more in guaranteed money. Neither of those two are looking for multi-year deals. Instead, they're looking for a chance to audition for a year and then jump into the big deals they seemed primed for in 2008. My under the radar choice for Arnsberg to ply his trade with: Rich Hill (see photo caption for explanation...for the one other than LHP hominid).
Convince Drayton McLane that if he wants a decent on-field product, he's probably going to accept spending in the red. I don't think this is a hard argument to win. There's little to no fan excitement with this team—especially after a 10-22 last month-ish of the season. Unemployment is still up and while other macro-economic indicators are improved, they're not game changing. The odds that attendance collapses further if Drayton doesn't do something to generate excitement is roughly the equivalent of the odds that Drew Brees beats Jake Delhomme in TD passes this season. So the options Drayton has seem to be: lose money by nothing nothing, or spend just a little bit more money and increase your odds that you don't lose revenue.

If four were to happen, I could easily see us accomplish two and three. But I don't know how many different ways you can combine the options with the shoe string budget that rounds out payroll. Thus, the crux of our offseason seems to be what will the Astros brass deem our most important short coming as a baseball club. My hope is that they realize they likely have to pay a lot of attention to option three.

My in a perfect world of realitic limitations off season goes like this:

Rich Hill signs for no more than $3 million.
Hawkins re-signed, or some equivalent former closer for no more than $5 million. Wagner would be a sexy choice.
Bobby Crosby gets a crack at 3rd base for $5-6 million.

That's $13-14 million and I think it plugs some major holes. While still leaving some wiggle room for our "that guy still plays baseball?" corps of bench guys that Ed Wade plucks from the nether-regions of baseball.

Those are just my ideas, though. What say you?

Astros Roster Breakdown: The 2008 Offseason

davoag — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

Look, waaay in the back...It's Ed Wade!

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Let's start the week off by looking at what the Astros did before and during the 2009 season. No major trades went down, nor were there any major signings. In fact, it sounds much like I'm sure this offseason will. Please give me your own take on the moves in the comments and what grade you'd give to Ed Wade for last season.

Move One: Signed Mike Hampton - The lefty Rob Lowe came at a bargain, earning 2 million dollars with 2 million in performance bonuses. I'm not sure if he met those, though. Hampton proved to be just what we thought he'd be: a little below league average and not very durable. For the money, though? You're not going to get much more.

Move Two: Signed Ivan Rodriguez - As a catcher with the Astros, it's fair to say Pudge failed. He started enough to break the record, but was pretty terrible when he did play. His OPS+ of 75 seemed to belie what fans saw on the field. It appeared that Pudge was having a meaningful impact on games, though his stat showed differently. Look at his splits in close and late situations, though: .359/.388/.406. Go even deeper, and you can see his numbers in high leverage situations: .280/.313/.320. Of course, this was offset by the fact that Rodriguez struck out all three times before getting to the late innings. He was a frustrating player, but his signing wasn't terrible, just ill-conceived.

Move Three: Signed Jason Michaels - Another guy who should have been better than he was. His career average of .269 should have made the Astros bench stronger, but Michaels couldn't put it together and struggled for much of the season. It also didn't help that he wasn't the best defensive replacement as a fourth outfielder. Still, who else were you going to get for 750K?

Move Four: Signed Russ Ortiz - With Hampton, he formed the "Let's Hope the Old Pitchers Can Revive With Us...Oh, Wait, HGH and Steroids are Banned...We're Screwed" duo. It's not the catchiest of names, but it is effective.

Move Five: Re-signed Doug Brocail - Doug was a pleasant surprise in 2008, but injuries derailed him last season. Who'd have predicted that the 42-year old reliever would have injury trouble? They're usually so reliable...Considering Brocail had injury trouble two years before, the Astros did well by stocking up on relievers with minor league deals, just in case. Was it 2.75 million well spent? Probably not.

Move Six: Re-signed LaTroy Hawkins - As I mentioned in my reliever rundown, Hawkins proved to be a reliable reliever for a second straight year. Whether this was due to the league he was in or to some sort of mechanical adjustment, the Astros have more than reaped the reward for a 3.5 million dollar contract.

Move Seven: Claimed Jeff Fulchino - Waiver claims like this show just good your advance scouts and major league scouts have to be. Fulchino provided a nice addition to the bullpen when Backe and Brocail both got hurt. Plus, Fulchino came much, much cheaper than either Hawkins, Valverde or Brocail. Oh, by the way, according to FanGraphs, he was also worth 3.4 million, which is more than all three of those relievers combined.

Move Eight: Signed Aaron Boone - I won't be glib here, since Boone had to go through too much this season. I respect the hell out of him for coming back and playing late in the season, but the Astros had to have wanted more out of him on the left side of the infield than they got. Still, here's hoping Boone continues to be in good health and can be a productive player, if he so chooses.

Midseason moves

Move Nine: Claimed Chris Coste - The former Phillie probably wishes he were in the World Series right now instead of the unemployment line. He should have been a lefty specialist off the bench, but hit worse against lefties than righties. Coste also didn't provide the pop the Astros needed when Berkman went down with an injury. Would they have been better served calling up Mark Saccomanno?

Move Ten: Traded away Ivan Rodriguez for Jose Vallejo and Matt Nevarez - This trade would have looked even better if the Rangers had made the playoffs and had to throw in another player. Still, the Astros basically paid 1.5 million for these two prospects. Not too shabby...

Move Eleven: Traded Drew Sutton for Jeff Keppinger - Boone's heart condition probably necessitated this trade to shore up the left side of the infield. As one of the commenters pointed out in the Mackanin post last week, Keppinger was only played at short after Mackanin put him there. Kepp did an okay job filling in for both Tejada and Blum. This trade happened before Chris Johnson broke his hand, but was certainly fortuitous. The Astros really didn't have anyone who could fill in for Blum on a regular basis.

Move Twelve: Claimed German Duran - This was a move for next season. We'll have to wait to see if Duran can contribute before passing judgement on it.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for GM Ed Wade. He made all the moves he could with no budget, tinkering around the margins and getting somewhat solid players. In both trades, it appears he got value, as Kepp is a good bench player and Drew Sutton didn't make much of an impact in Cincy, getting 66 big-league at-bats with an OPS+ of 68.

The Pudge signing was mandated by Drayton (I think), but give Wade credit for standing up to his owner enough to flip Rodriguez for some value. As disappointing as 2009 was in so many ways, Wade hasn't been among them. He's proven he can let Bobby Heck work his magic in the draft and can make those little moves that Gerry Hunsicker used to make so well.

Overall grade: B

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.

A little of this, a little of that: What the Astros offense can borrow from MLB's best teams

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

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Earlier this week, Beyond the Boxscore came out with its final Power Rankings of the season and the results are not pretty for Astros' fans. 28th in baseball overall, with periphery statistics that are dreadful.

While there may be other teams that rival the Astros' ineptitude in hitting, pitching and defense, most teams manage to at least be competent in at least one of those areas, whereas our Astros are at the bottom in all three. Remember, AL teams are rewarded in their rankings, and NL clubs are punished for the differences in league strength. Our pitching numbers don't look so bad going up and down the line, until you realize that the AL teams had to deal with a lot more in the way of offensive talent than Astros hurlers did.

Offensively, a collection of players that struggled to both get on base and hit for much power stopped the team before it could even get started. By God the Astros were clutch, though. Don't get too excited, however. That just means our offense managed to produce more than they were expected to, given our run scoring opportunities and propensity to collect certain types of hits. A team like ours that doesn't score a lot of runs via the home run is expected to score a lot. We managed to buck that trend, due in small part because our cumulative baserunning score wasn't as terrible as other teams.

Suffice it to say, the Astros don't have a lot of bright spots as of right now. Of course, that's why teams have off seasons- to get recooperate (no, no, not bring back Cooper- you can all settle down), replenish the reserves, and to give GMs a chance to put their Ivy League educations to use trying to one up each other.

What should the Astros do, in terms of player utilization/talent maximization, to improve themselves most efficiently? I think that like in most fields, baseball teams should do their best to build their own team in the same manner as those franchises which are the most successful.

This is easy to say, and much more difficult to actually accomplish, due to the fact that there is no salary cap in baseball, and with so many players on so many different levels within one organization, it's tougher to mimic the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies of the world than it would be for the Oakland Raiders to mimic the New England Patriots. Building a consistent winner in MLB takes time. A fact of life we ought to get used to.

Incremental changes can be made to this team in the 2010 offseason so that our climb up the rankings doesn't have to be so painful or so long in duration. That's not to say that Ed Wade can snap his fingers and make the Astros improve in certain areas. Far from it. There needs to be an organization-wide emphasis on certain statistics that give teams the best shot at competing into October. Simply stated- the Astros don't have many players who fit the bill in the categories that have the highest correlation with success in MLB.

Offensive:

BB/K: 5 out of the top 10 teams in BB/K made the playoffs

ISO (Isolated Slugging): Again 5 out of the top 10 teams in ISO made the playoffs

What can the Astros do to improve themselves in this regard? Well, not much as of now. Up and down the lineup, only Michael Bourn and Lance Berkman have shown the tendency to take walks. Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada were completely dependent on their batting averages (and therefore BABIP) to keep their OBPs afloat. Hunter Pence showed the ability to be more patient than he was in 2008, but it's all relative.

With Miguel Tejada's future as an Astro in question, and Tommy Manzella most likely making a move to SS, it doesn't appear that our chances improve with one player substitution will improve dramatically. Manzella will most likely struggle at the plate and has never been the most patient of hitters even in the minors. Chris Johnson needs more time in AAA, and would most likely be a disaster if he was forced to be our everyday third baseman in 2010. Russell Braynan, among free agents, has played third base and would be an upgrade in both OBP and SLG%. True, his defense would be a drawback, but as I said earlier, there will be no cure alls available for the Astros. Plug him in for a year, he won't cost the team any draft picks, and see if he can hold down the fort until better alternatives come along.

JR Towles' MLB equivalent line from Baseball Prospectus projects him to be very respectable offensively in 2010. An OPS in the mid .700s would be much preferred than any free agent, or the idea of forcing Jason Castro into the mix right off the bat.

The outfield is pretty much set. Taking out Jason Michaels, Darin Erstad and even Aaron Boone and inserted competent players who will actually make pitchers earn outs will do wonders for a bench that was most certainly worth negative dollars in 2009. Asking anything more from Michael Bourn may seem greedy, but I think it's reasonable to believe that he can become an even better outfielder, base runner and hitter. With patience comes power, and while it's unrealistic to believe Mike will ever hit even 10 home runs in a season, but adding to his doubles total is a definite possibility.

Hunter Pence is still in the infancy of his career, and more will have to be asked of him in the future. Being a more selective base runner, altering his approach at the plate to allow for more productive at bats are keys to his ascendancy in the hierarchy of NL outfielders. Far too often Hunter will be taken out of at bats, left only to protect the outside of the plate against sliders. Remedying this flaw in his game would do wonders to up our run production and on base average.

Monday's Quick Hits

davoag — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 18:28:05 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

3 months ago: Home plate umpire Greg Gibson, left, points during an argument with St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa after throwing La Russa out of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Not much going on besides the managerial search, but there were a couple of stories that caught my eye:

Could Tony LaRussa be out in St. Louis? Tony will retire rather than accept a job elsewhere, but it's interesting to think through the possibilities his leaving would potentially have. First off, would the Cards job be more enticing than the Astros job? Will that limit the managerial pool in Houston's search? Second, does that make Dave Duncan available? Could the Astros land someone like Duncan if they threw enough money at him? Just one of those stories that could create potential ripples that will affect the entire off-season.
R.J. Anderson over at D.Ray's Bay wonders if J.R. Towles makes sense as a trade candidate for Tampa Bay. Obviously the Astros don't have much faith in Towles and special advisor for the Rays Gerry Hunsicker has proven to be a fan of guys he drafted with the Astros (see Zobrist, Ben). Does it make sense for the Astros? Jason Castro will get a chance to win the starting job sooner rather than later. I don't think Houston wants to break in a young backstop before breaking in another in Castro, so I could see them taking a one-year flier on someone like Benjie Molina before giving Castro a chance to win the job by midseason. Tampa Bay also has a surplus of pitching, so maybe a swap of Andy Sonnanstine or Jeremy Hellickson would be enough to get it done.
Since we've already discussed some potential deals, would the Astros think about trading for Matt Gamel? The 23-year old is a year younger than Chris Johnson, and has a better minor league record. Gamel flashed more power in the minors, with an career minor-league OPS of .862 compared to Johnson's .726. They're apparently looking for pitching, but would they be happy with Yorman Bazardo or Polin Trinidad? Putting together a bigger deal with Wandy and J.J. Hardy might be more appealing, but an under-the-radar deal for Gamel might make the most sense long-term.
A couple of managerial notes: This report out of Boston shows the Astros have gotten permission to interview Red Sox third baseman Tim Bogar and bench coach Brad Mills. Add them to the confirmed list that includes Manny Acta, who will probably get the first interview this week. I'll have a post later today on Acta going over his background and managerial career. UPDATE: McTaggart added a couple more confirmed names in Bob Melvin and Al Pedrique, while also running down how the hiring process will shake out.

5 semi-absurd thoughts of an Astros fan down in the dumps

DyingQuail — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 15:37:25 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

There's a lot of surface area to work with.

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I don't know what it is about the 2009 Astros, but, unlike their 2008 version, they have me deeper in the dumps than I was at any point in 2008 or 2007. It's hard for me to believe that in the four seasons since the Astros made their brief and heartbreaking appearance in the World Series that they've only mustered a paltry .488 winning percentage (315-330). Maybe it would be my own naivete at the time, but I don't think I would have believed it if someone told me that the Astros would miss the post-season four years in a row, while posting a losing record overall. Perhaps it should have been readily apparent to me, but at this point, it's hard to discern whats my own revisionist history and what's my own awareness that I know now a lot more than I knew then.

What does any of that have to do with "5 semi-absurd thoughts of an Astros fan down in the dumps"? I'm not exactly sure, but it felt good getting if off my chest. So perhaps I'll just claim that it was setting the stage. With that, I'll get to it. As a preface, these aren't to be taken as serious recommendations, just the bitter musings I had as I watched us get slaughtered by the Mets last night.

I truly wish someone could go back in time and write into the CBA that players who underperformed their contracts based on WAR estimates, would have to pay the team back their money. Think of what an insane incentive that would be for Carlos Lee to lose some [expletive deleted] weight. Further, think about what that would do for the free agent market in general? It would remove the moral hazard that's present, which allows someone like Carlos Lee to take the cash and then not push themselves. It would force the player to truly consider their own worth before locking into some stupid contract that hamstrings a franchise for years and years. There would be qualifiers for injuries, etc., so that players weren't unfairly dinged for a few million here and there. To be extra fair, we could say that over a certain amount it had to be paid back...say four million? Or maybe a percentage...say 20%. I think it would be a lot of fun. Just think how much extra the Astros would have to spend this offseason, and how much cheaper the players would be?
How cool would it be if once the games became meaningless in a season for a team, the fans were able to go online and vote for who would be in the lineup; there would, of course, be the options to text your vote as well. I understand that there is value in keeping games competitive for teams in contention or vying for home field advantage, but screw it. There is no reason that we don't have a better idea of what Chris Johnson and Tommy Manzella bring to the table other than the pursuit of Miguel Tejada's 200 hits and adhering to the time honored tradition of not using a valuable opportunity for the sake competitive advantage (BTW it's not like fielding our regular core of veterans has made us competitive). Thus, I think the fan voting idea would be a lot more fun. It'd probably drive website hits for astros.com and people would at least tune to the first inning or so of the game just to see their lineup in action. Plus the Astros could partner with a carrier like AT&T or Verizon to have the text-to-vote feature only be available for those subscribers; just more money in the bank.
I wish Drayton were really considering selling the Astros. It's totally unlikely seeing as how they're at the nadir of their value and it's not a sellers market—unless a bankruptcy court orders it—but how awesome would be? Think about it. Drayton wouldn't want to sell the team this offseason; the process takes too long and he'd have to do some emergency upping of the Astros value. Suddenly that idea of paring back payroll to offset the loss in ticket sales is a thing of the past. Your $140 million 2010 Astros would be taking the field in style as Drayton tried to bring the value back to his franchise as potential buyers salivated at the sight of a packed MMP and a healthy number of wins above losses.
In order to finance greater offseason spending, Drayton went ahead and sold ad space on the players' uniforms. I just think it'd be awesome because he could probably charge a premium for Carlos Lee's extra surface area.
I desperately want there to be a way that you could just fast forward from the point your team dropped from relevancy, decency, and (some other english word ending in "ncy" and describing something that's worth watching), so you could just know what their final record was, and what draft pick that would have next year. The last few weeks have been depressing because by the time I leave work and get to check my phone to see what the score is, the Astros have, at least 90% of the time, been losing—by a lot. The only fascination left is just to see how low they can go for the sake of the 2010 draft. I'd much rather hit fast foward than open up the Astros app day in and day out to discover that there's no reason to go home and turn on the game—that's an awfully sharp kick in the gut to sustain four or five days a week.

SB Nation - Chris Johnson

Monday Morning Post-Meetings Link Fest

Ed Wade and the Astros' busy week: How would you grade it?

If you could hand out a grade for this week's transactions it would be:

Is Spring Training Enough?

With Miguel Tejada most likely on his way out, Tommy Manzella is in as Astros Shortstop in 2010

What should the Astros do with their shoe string budget?

Astros Roster Breakdown: The 2008 Offseason

Midseason moves

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

A little of this, a little of that: What the Astros offense can borrow from MLB's best teams

Monday's Quick Hits

5 semi-absurd thoughts of an Astros fan down in the dumps