SB Nation - Miguel Tejada

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

B Prospects, Plan Bs, DWIs

DanUpBaby — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:00:35 -0000

John Sickels released his Cardinals Top Twenty over the weekend, giving us an SBN-approved list of prospects to salivate over. I can't deprive him the pageview, but suffice it to say that the Cardinals' remaining minor league strength, a large pool of Sickels's ubiquitous "Grade C" guys, is not the most exciting thing to talk about. Go over there and read it, because then I'm going to niggle with it in bullet point format.

It's awful to see Pete Kozma rated 16th, but I can't exactly argue with the thought process that landed him there. I can almost see the thought process behind promoting Kozma, and position players in general, aggressively through high-A. Palm Beach is a hitter's nightmare, and the Springfield Cardinals play in the Texas League; it's a much closer step than it typically is, and probably should be, and had it worked out it would have been a nice confidence boost for a guy who's been not-Rick-Porcello from day one.

That said, I don't get why they kept him there while he endured an unbelievably terrible season. Kozma, who Sickels reminds us was drafted as a "makeup" guy, didn't hit; he wasn't sure-handed afield. At least when Tyler Greene, who managed to climb past Kozma in what is presumably his last year as a prospect, flailed around the minor leagues he stole bases like crazy (113 SB, 15 CS) and hit a few home runs to show that the tools were intact. Kozma wasn't a tools guy; he was drafted on the presumption that he would adjust well to adversity, to whatever role was required of him. I expect a bounceback season of some kind, but the question with Kozma has always been how high that last bounce will be.

The exciting news is that Sickels is higher on Robert Stock than any other source to this point—number four on the Cardinals' list, ahead of Daryl Jones, for the usual reasons: if his bat holds up, he's the total catching prospect package, and if it doesn't he's a hard-throwing pitcher who can kind of hit. Two, two, two prospects in one! I was as excited to watch Stock pick apart the Appalachian League as anybody else, but since Niko Vasquez I've learned to resist the temptation to throw out small samples of at-bats when the season-wide total is so small. Stock may have struggled in just 24 at-bats in the Midwest League, but when that's the difference between a .936 OPS and an .857 OPS for a guy whose bat has as much uncertainty as it does upside it advises some caution in using his short-season debut to forecast future greatness.
While we're on the subject of catchers, Steven Hill was perhaps the biggest surprise of the whole top twenty for me-his .282/.333/.470 line in the Texas League as a 24 year-old earned him the spot just ahead of Pete Kozma on the list. What I'm about to say makes me very uncomfortable. I was an early Bryan Anderson skeptic, and I don't think it's beating my own drum to say that I had him out of my mental top five before other people did. But Steven Hill is a year and a half older than Anderson, and has his own fatal bat flaws; Anderson may have less power than his pitcher, on nights when he's catching Adam Wainwright, but Hill's high-strikeouts/high-average/low-walks routine is a recipe for Major League disaster, and he's apparently even worse behind the plate. I hate to say it, but we might have officially begun to underrate Bryan Anderson.
He's still got no chance of ever starting here, ever, and I'll ban anybody what says different, but I like the decision to list Mark Hamilton at the back of the list. He did it in two hitters' leagues, but an OBP-heavy .927 OPS in the high minors is no mean feat. (And he, too, is six months younger than Steve Hill.) If the Cardinals have any interest in keeping the guy it might have made sense to give him more than a single start in left field, where he could platoon with Allen Craig on a team with less of its future wrapped up in competing right this instant.

It's true, though: the Cardinals have a wealth of guys who are, in the vaguest way possible, interesting. Relievers who might be useful if they learn that strikes and balls aren't called at random? There's Francisco Samuel, owner of a legitimate high-90s fastball and a walk rate that just missed touching one batter an inning, and Tyler Norrick, whose strikeouts-to-hits ratio against lefties—which as fake stats go is both inanely compartmentalized and entertaining—was 2.5:1, and that's just the wild-fireballers nearest the major leagues. Potential fourth outfielders? Jon Jay, Tyler Henley. Offensive-minded catchers with terrible defensive reputations? Hey, we've got three a-those.

You get the idea—these are misfit toys, but eventually the Cardinals will find off-label uses for some of them.

This is extremely interesting timing, given the imminent and uncertain timing of Boras/Holliday's decision on the Cardinals' official offer—over at Play a Hard 9 there's an interesting graph of possible Plan Bs should things not go the Cardinals way. What I doubt in the graph is not that the thought of Miguel Tejada playing third gives Future Redbirds godfather Erik nightmares but that the Cardinals will stick mainly to Allen Craig in left should Holliday leave for greener pastures.

Craig might have a good year, but the symbolic value among the DeWallet set won't be lost on ownership or management; nobody at third base, short of Scott Rolen with a bionic shoulder, is going to make fans forget that the Protect Albert spot is being filled by a rookie making $400,000 a year. And it's simply too easy to use Craig without starting him; as the small end of a platoon he could get his feet wet without having to be the Guy Who Isn't Matt Holliday. U.S.S. Mariner has it "third-hand" that Seattle and Baltimore are talking about Luke Scott, erstwhile Astros slugger. A guy like that would make a lot of sense, should the Cardinals find themselves with a Lego-sized vacuum.

That said, my dark horse candidate for surprise left fielder come this April is, more and more, Johnny Damon. He wasn't offered arbitration, so he won't cost the Cardinals one of what looks like a bounty of draft picks, he fills a hole, Guy In Front of Pujols, that's been assumed vacant nearly as long as Guy Behind Pujols, and he's a guy with a broad base of pretty good skills. I don't know how fond I am of blowing the easiest spot on the team to upgrade on a 36 year-old left fielder coming off a huge season fraught with reasonable park effects concerns, but I can see it happening.

And finally, speaking of Miguel Tejada playing third base, there is Joe Strauss's pre-tweeted breaking news, that David Freese was arrested on DWI charges. We don't know the whole story yet, and I'd hate to pass complete moral judgment on it without that, but suffice it to say that this is a really stupid thing to do.

In the end they're athletes, and should be in the news, for the most part, based on what they do on the baseball field*; at the same time, it's not unfair to hold a baseball player—or a golfer, I guess, to turn subtext into text—to the same standards for generalized disappointment you do any other human being you happen to come across. This is bad; I hope either that there is some mitigating circumstance, though I can't imagine one, or that he is prepared to deal with it in the future, before the consequences get worse, far worse, than a really disappointing Twitter-tease. I don't think, and have never thought, that I as a sportswriter, or we as baseball fans, can say much more about something like this than that.

That said, we don't yet know how this is going to play out on the baseball field; as a ballplayer, Freese, cheap, useful, is an important cog in any free agent machinations.

Down on the Farm: Snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 Lists

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:00:17 -0000

Like I mentioned yesterday, I decided to subscribe to Baseball America for the next 3 months so I can stay on top of their Top 10 lists, while I wait for Santa to deliver their 2010 Baseball Prospect Handbook. They completed their Top 10s for the National League teams last week, so today I bring you a few snippets from their writeups.

We may see these guys called up as early as spring training and as late as August/September:

Jenrry Mejia, SP, NYM

Mejia's fastball ranges from 90-96 mph, and it hit 98 on a handful of occasions in 2009. He's able to maintain his velocity late into games, and his fastball has so much cutting and sinking action that it befuddles hitters. He induces a lot of groundouts and broken bats. Mejia's changeup is a plus pitch at times, resembling a splitter with its 81-84 velocity and drop. Though he's not particularly tall by righthander standards, he has a good angle to the plate and throws downhill. In 210 pro innings, he has allowed just six homers. Mejia does a good job of pitching inside, and he generally stays composed with traffic on the bases.

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM

The Mets entered the offseason with Daniel Murphy set to open 2010 as their first baseman and Davis headed to Triple-A Buffalo. He should make his big league debut later in the year and eventually supplant Murphy as New York's starter.

More after the jump:

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC

Castro's performance has drawn him comparisons with the likes of Tony Fernandez, Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada—and even Derek Jeter. Castro covers the plate well for a young hitter and does a nice job of staying inside the ball and using the entire field. He consistently puts the barrel of the bat on the ball and has a knack for making adjustments. Though he had just 32 extra-base hits in 2009, Castro has the power potential to double that total once he matures physically. He has strong hands and wrists, and he's starting to pull and drive more pitches. He has the plus speed to make things happen on the bases.

Derek Norris, C, WAS

Norris projects as an above-average offensive player in the big leagues, and if he can become an average defender, he can be an all-star. He should be fully healthy for spring training and will start 2010 at high Class A Potomac.

Kyle Drabek, SP. PHI

Drabek could be a power reliever in the Tom Gordon mode, particularly if the Phillies need him in 2010. His aptitude and athleticism make it more likely that he'll improve that pitch and fulfill his profile as a No. 2 or 3 starter. He'll open the season in Triple-A.

Ed Wade gets his relievers, but what did the Astros get?

DyingQuail — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:41:22 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Congrats man, you're average in every way, but you just got paid.

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So an hour or so ago I said that I would have to wait until tomorrow to process the day's events, but I lied. A solid hour of tossing and turning while visions of mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers danced in my head lead me back to my laptop. Mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers, that's kind of what we got today. Not so much in Lindstrom, but definitely in Lyon. Now I can't help but think Dave Cameron is being a little hyperbolic in his assessment of Brandon Lyon, but everything he says is correct. Lyon isn't good. Period.

He's average in every respect. Compare him to anyone else already in the Astros bullpen and you'd lose him in the haze of mediocre total-skill sets. Alberto Arias and Chris Sampson have high ground ball percentages. Jeff Fulchino is just a clydesdale that is dependable. Matt Lindstrom has life his is stuff that portends to better things to come. Sammy Gervacio has an awesome delivery that gives him difficult to distinguish stuff. Brandon Lyon literally is average in every respect. Pick a stat or a trait. Look at it. It'll be average.

Lyon will definitely go down as a not good signing. Will it ever be a signing that's cited more than two years after the contract is completed? No. Carlos Lee was a bad signing, so was Barry Zito. Lyon is just a poor signing—for the Astros. If any other team inked Lyon to this deal, it probably wouldn't resonate as much as it does right now. There's the Ed Wade loves relief pitching too much factor. There's the luck inflated ERA factor (thank God they're upgrading defense a SS, we think). And there's the this team doesn't have the payroll flexibility to afford this factor. Those three factors make this signing laughable to outsiders and repugnant to Astros fans.

But I don't think it's bad because of in 2011 and 2012, just 2010. We never had enough money to start with this winter. Ed Wade had just made a pretty savvy little trade with the Florida Marlins to bring in someone who would add depth to a bullpen that didn't need a closer because the Astros won't be good enough to justify needing a true closer, much less over paying for one (which they didn't even end up doing).

Really, he could have just stopped there. I would have continued to actually be content and happy with the state of this team for at least a few hours. And then the malaise of being an Astros fan could have set back in when I realized I was happy not because my team had gotten better, but because my team didn't do anything to make themselves measurably worse off.

But now it appears as though they have.

Can we afford Miguel Tejada back? Nope. Can we—realistically—afford a worthwhile fill in at 3B? Probably not. At this point, offering LaTroy Hawkins arbitration has never looked so good to me.

Now, I'm left wondering the following questions: Why did we have to move so fast to sign a relief pitcher who could be a closer? There were still options out there; we didn't really even need someone else (i.e. another closer-esque reliever is a luxury, not a necessity). Why move so fast on Lyon and offer him everything he wanted? Why not try to whittle him down in price or years (preferably price, but only scantly)? What will Ed Wade use to justify Lyon versus someone with promise and an ability to add worthwhile value to the team...like say Mike Gonzalez?

(Please don't let it be his 2009 ERA, please, please, please, please don't. I won't be able to take it. Something of mine will break after I hurl it against something if I awake to an Ed Wade quote about Lyon's ERA.)

For a brief moment it felt like the Astros had faced the reality of their situation: they have to stop pretending they are contenders. Lindstrom was a savvy trade to provide a cost-controlled insurance for the backend of the bullpen for the next few years. It allowed us wiggle room to try and fill in other gaps that could actually have placed us in the faint pale of the glow of contenders. After that trade I smiled because I was proud of Ed Wade. He'd made a move that was exactly what this team needed.

But now, with Lyon inked for too much, we're hamstrung. It's like Ed Wade is waiving the white flag on finding help at 3B or SP and figured he'd roll the dice on Lyon and see what happened. It's ilke he's forgotten that things like signing Joel Pinero late in the game can make the a huge difference, if you have the money to do it at the time. Or he's forgotten about all the players who signed late in the ball game at just about every position last year, too.

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

To answer this post's title: The Astros got nothing the needed, just something a few in the front office might have wanted. Now they're left wanting things that can't afford. So, I guess they got screwed hamstrung. There's really nothing about Lyon's signing that can bring cause to justify it. There was a lot in the Lindstrom trade, but that's been buried under the mountain of inanity that is three years and fifteen million dollars for Lyon.

Of course, we also have yet to hear the final word on Lyon's deal. So maybe myself, Dave Cameron, and just about every baseball person I follow on Twitter will be eating crow tomorrow...or so I can hope.

Astros Winter Meeting, Day Three: Links, Thoughts and Idle Speculation

davoag — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:54:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Unless you have this man closing games for you, do you need a big-name closer? And yes, I was referring to Yogi...

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Look, I'm all for conventional wisdom. There is usually a reason it's conventional; it's worked for years and years. It's what people do. In baseball, it's what teams do to win. I don't mock all conventional wisdom in baseball. Some of it is very sound. One thing I can't figure out, however, is why this one fact has become so crucial to a team's offseason goals. Why do the Astros 'need' to find a closer this winter? Just because they lost their closer from last season?

Let's consider last season*. How many teams went into the 2009 season with unsettled or unproven closers? That would be 11. Here's the complete list, followed by some quick thoughts on the situations.

*This isn't the most scientific study, since I'm looking just at teams from 2009 and not expanding the data range past that. I acknowledge that. Let's move past it.

Tampa Bay (84-78) Had Percival ostensibly as closer, but pitched 10 innings in 2009 and was not used as closer much early. Still had six saves, but so did five other members of bullpen.
Toronto (75-87) Knew BJ Ryan would be back at some point, never signed anyone as replacement.
Detroit (86-77) Had a group of a couple players, sorted itself out during the season.
Seattle (85-77) Found David Aardsma off junk pile.
Oakland (75-87) Went with all-kids, Andrew Bailey emerged as closer
Florida (87-75) Went with unproven kid in Matt Lindstrom, moved to Leo Nunez halfway through season.
Washington (59-103) Went with Mike McDougal, had okay season.
St. Louis (91-71) Found Ryan Franklin after going through motions with several others
LA Dodgers (95-67) Broxton saved some games at end of 2008, but still unknown entity going into 2009
San Diego (75-87) Entered season with Heath Bell as closer, no prior experience
Arizona (70-92) Let Brandon Lyon walk,used Qualls as new closer
Atlanta (86-76) Traded for Soriano, but also had Mike Gonzalez

Obviously, there were some teams that were going to be bad no matter what. They'd made the decision to rebuild and thus, didn't invest heavily in a closer. Those teams (Washington, Oakland, San Diego) finished with losing records. The Padres found Heath Bell could be a successful closer and the A's had the same thing happen with Andrew Bailey.

The rest of the teams? 7 of the 11 had winning records. There are numerous examples of teams being killed by not having a late-inning guy. That's the 2008 Mets excuse, anyway (forcing them to spend ungodly amounts of money on JJ Putz and K-Rod). I think, however, that a large majority of teams don't necessarily need to focus on getting a closer as part of their success. Finding good players and putting them in the bullpen will work itself out. Why spend the money on a luxury item when you can win without one?

Maybe this is all rationalization since the Brewers are going to swoop in and sign both LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf in the same day. I really believe that the Astros success in 2010 won't hinge on who pitches the ninth inning. Houston will be an average-to-below average team no matter who the closer is.

Onto the links:

Add the Cardinals to the list of Miguel Tejada suitors. Well, maybe not...it's just that Tony LaRussa likes him. Which he revealed for the sole purpose of driving me crazy. Would St. Louis play Tejada at shortstop or third base?
Could the Tigers end up being Jose Valverde's landing spot? The Granderson/Jackson deal saved them about 10-12 million dollars, depending on how much Jackson gets in arbitration. That puts them in perfect position to pick up a player like Valverde for the back end of the bullpen. It would also give the Astros the 19th pick in the 2010 draft. Apparently, the Nationals had interest but pulled back due to his cost. Did Valverde's agent overestimate his market?
Here's a nice defense of the Pudge Rodriguez signing. While I agree the human aspect of baseball decisions is often minimized by everyone, this seems a bit much. For one, it was widely reported when Pudge joined the Astros that he really doesn't prepare for the mental side of the game very well and is mostly concerned with hitting. Sure, he may provide moral support out there on the mound, but don't look for him to tell Strasberg what kind of pitches this guy doesn't want to see.Aaron Gleeman seems to agree with me, too.
I don't know what's more disturbing; that the White Sox could beat us out for Putz's services (and that that would be considered a bad thing) or that Matt Thornton uses the term 'bromance.' I have nothing more to say.
One of the better Twitter feeds during the Winter Meetings has been Will Carroll's. The Baseball Prospectus writer was profiled by his hometown newspaper and has apparently been one of the stars of the Indianapolis show. As someone who purchased his Carroll Guide to Sports Injuries, just so I could sound smart when I talk about Lis Franc-type injuries, I am very appreciative he's in the business.
Finally, here's a little prospect talk for those minor league nuts in the audience:
Some data on player speeds out of the box in the Arizona Fall League. The guys at Project Prospect only timed Castro twice and he fell into the below-average category, but he may have suffered the same fate as Buster Posey: fatigue. From what I'd heard to that point, Castro should have average speed in the majors.
We were recently contact by a site with some great prospect video (though it is a pay site). One of the profiles is on Henry Villar. Some very good video here with lots of pitches thrown. I didn't see any closeups from the side to tell how his arm mechanics looked, but could see some other things. His delivery is relatively smooth, but the fact he falls off to the first base side so heavily means it might not be as repeatable as you'd like. He's also not in great fielding position when he finishes. His arm slot doesn't look to put too much stress on his delivery and for a hard thrower, he certainly has a free-and-easy motion. Not too many warning signs for injury down the road.
Here's a video of Ross Seaton. I have to say, this was pretty encouraging. While Seaton did struggle with command issues in this particular start, it was a TON of video on his delivery. I can see why scouts would like him; Seaton has a very smooth delivery throughout. He lands in a balanced position, it's not too violent of an arm motion. His arm slot seems comfortable, though he does tend to miss the same slot sometimes. His elbow does not seem to fly forward before the ball and he seems perfectly balanced to field after the play. In fact, the end of his delivery reminds me a little of Greg Maddux. Now, he definitely didn't show Maddux-like control, but if his effortless delivery can really bring 92-93 MPH heat? He's a lot more interesting. Here's my end of the season scouting effort on Seaton, based on his numbers.
There's also video of Jordan Lyles on Baseball Intellect, but I won't bore you any more with prospect talk. At first blush, it's some of the longest video I've seen on prospects and a good source for first-hand scouting reports.

Red Reposter - Winter Meetings Day 3 potpourri

ken — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 13:00:28 -0000

Who is Gossip GM? I'll never tell!
via i2.cdn.turner.com

The Winter Meetings in Indy end tomorrow with the Rule V draft. Here's a recap the deals and other news that broke yesterday, much of which was disussed in yesterday's open thread:

- Walt Jocketty had some discussions with the Rangers about "a hitter, shortstop depth and pitching depth." but nothing sounds close. Walt and Jonny Gomes' agent are "still a ways apart." Shortstop is still an area of interest, but it's no surprise that Jocketty thinks Miguel Tejada or Orlando Cabrera are poor fits for the Reds' "pay structure" (this rumor was floated by Jim Bowden). And rest easy, RijoSaboCaseyWKRP - the Reds have not reached out to Jamey Carroll (his agent, Cincinnati-based Jonathan Maurer, confirmed).

- And speaking of Bowden, Washington signed Pudge Rodriguezto a two-year deal. The final piece! Bowden is of course no longer the Nationals' GM, making this one of the first winter meetings he hasn't attended as a GM in some time. Which means no sartorial controversies and no arm-wrestling contests gone awry.

- The Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks had an old-fashioned three-way that saw Curtis Granderson go to to the Yankees and Edwin Jackson head to Arizona. There are some promising young players in the deal as well - Arizona trades Max Scherzer to Detroit, and New York sends Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to Detroit and Arizona, respectively. New York is definitely capitalizing on its ability to absorb salary (from a team looking to shed it) to add a very solid up-the-middle player near his peak. Dave Cameron gives an "A+" to NYY.

- Brad Penny signed a one-year, $7.5M deal with St. Louis. He's a big guy without a great health track record, but when you already have two Cy Young candidates and another decent starter, gambling on the upside of a hard-thrower like Penny isn't a bad idea. Meanwhile, St. Louis continues to talk with Scott Boras about Matt Holliday, who is still presumably recovering from that ball striking his groin.

- Peter Gammons is jumping from ESPN to MLB Network. In my first job out of college there was a girl in my training class with the last name Gammons who had Mass. plates on her car. I asked her if she was related to Peter Gammons; she answered she was not. Somehow the relationship failed to blossom from there.

- What would you guess Albert Pujols makes in endorsements? Derek Jeter?

The New Astros Game Plan

davoag — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:55:18 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Hawk and Puma...the perfect 80's detective show!

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With Jose Valverde's decision to decline arbitration with the Astros, that leaves them with an upper limit of 15 million to spend this offseason. Of course these comments related to Jose de Jesus Ortiz for the Houston Chronicle make it seem like accepting arbitration was never an option:

"Houston had a chance," [Valverde] said. "Another arbitration wasn't for me. If they want to win with young players, that's good. But a team like that has to invest to win. The GM said he wanted me, but if he really wanted me, he would have offered something. He never offered me any type of offer or anything. They had a chance to make an offer, and they never made it. It was always, ‘Well talk tomorrow.' Then when the time ended for the first offer, they said we'd talk later. They never, never made me an offer."

So let me get this straight, the Astros had no intentions of of re-signing Valverde and they offered him arbitration. They wanted Hawkins back, so they didn't offer him arbitration. At what point did arbitration become such a sign of bad faith in negotiations. I thought it was about getting compensation for losing free agents. Silly me.

At any rate, with that 15 million, Houston GM Ed Wade will set out to fill these main positions of need: closer, offense, eighth inning reliever, bench.

What's that mean for the rest of the winter? Look for the Astros to check in on these kinds of players:

LaTroy Hawkins will be re-signed, maybe as early as today, for about 5 million. I'd like it to be a one-year deal, but wouldn't rule out his agent pushing for an additional year. 2009 Cost: 5 million
The Astros will also make a push to bring back Miguel Tejada now. He will provide both offense and another option at third base for new manager Brad Mills. This probably won't happen until January, since Tejada wants a long-term deal. 2009 Cost: 4 million
Look for them to also pursue a guy like JJ Putz or newly-released Boof Bonser as a possible late inning setup man. Putz could come on a relatively cheap, one year deal while Bonser may get signed for less than a million guaranteed with incentive escalators. Bonser missed the 2009 season after tearing his rotator cuff and labrum. Cost: 3 million
That leaves a couple of million to spend on one or two bench guys. One of those will definitely be an infielder that can play multiple positions, but mainly will back up Manzella. They'll probably add another outfielder too. Maybe Ryan Church? Cost: 2 million

We just spent 14 of that 15 million, with some change to spare. A roster with that bullpen, Tejada at third and Church spelling guys like Pence and Lee isn't bad at all, but still won't be a winner. The only way that happens is if the Astros add two starters and that's just no in the cards.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:36:15 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

Today's Frosty Mug is so full, I didn't even have time to caption this picture of Randy Wolf.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while evening out the teams.

It turned out to be a pretty active first day of the Winter Meetings. The Brewers were the talk of the late night rumor mill, based on reports that they're close to signing a three year deal with Randy Wolf (also noted in Rumorville). Tom H. says the deal is rumored to be in the $25-27 million range, and is also quantifying the amount of smoke surrounding it.

With that said, the deal mustn't be done yet, because Arn Tellem, who represents Wolf, is meeting with the Mets this morning. Jon Heyman says the Mets aren't willing to offer Wolf a three year deal.

Is this the move you were hoping for from the Brewers? I'd be happy with it at this point, as long as the price isn't much above $27 million. There's always some risk involved, but this is almost certainly a better deal than, for example, the four year deal Joel Pineiro is seeking.

Wolf might not be the only starting pitcher the Brewers acquire this week. They've reportedly discussed a deal with the Mets that would send Corey Hart to New York for John Maine, a former student of Rick Peterson who has missed most of the last year with shoulder issues (FanShot). It's unclear how much fire is behind this smoke, but the Mets are also rumored to be discussing a similar trade with the Angels, with Juan Rivera taking Hart's place.

The Brewers also added a little depth to their middle infield yesterday, claiming shortstop Luis Cruz off waivers from the Pirates (FanShot). Cruz played seven positions (everything but pitcher and catcher) last season in AAA, but has virtually zero ability with the bat (a .274 OBP in AAA last season), and Adam McCalvy confirmed the move was made for minor league, not major league depth. The Brewers don't have a true shortstop prospect in the minors above Brent Brewer and Josh Prince, neither of whom played above A-ball last season.

The Brewer bullpen suffered a blow yesterday, as Mark DiFelice underwent surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff, and will miss the entire 2010 season (FanShot). DiFelice is 33 and undergoing his second major shoulder procedure, but intends to try to pitch in the majors again in 2011, telling Adam McCalvy "I don't want it to end like this."

This raises the stakes a little bit in the search for additional bullpen help, but the Crew won't be getting said help from Rafael Betancourt. Late in the day yesterday it was reported that the Brewers were unlikely to lure Betancourt away from a return to the Rockies. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I'm pretty sure he accepted arbitration late last night.

Looking back at a rumor from the weekend, In-Between Hops has come out against a Jeff Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, fearing the extra $4 million in salary the Brewers would have to take on would make it difficult for them to sign a pitcher like Randy Wolf.

And, looking back even farther, Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at the pitch-blocking ability of Gregg Zaun. Ken Macha is making me crazy: I should see this as a positive, but instead I see it as the excuse that might be used to keep an underperforming/overused Zaun in the lineup and a more deserving catcher on the bench.

In the minors, Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. It's always interesting to see how guys move up and down the charts during the offseason. This edition's big gainers were Kentrail Davis, Jake Odorizzi and John Axford, with Hernan Iribarren, Chris Cody and Max Walla losing significant ground.

And around here, we're looking for your help to select a Brewer All-Decade Team in a series we're calling Making Your '00 Face. That link will take you to the voting for first base, where Prince Fielder has opened up what will likely turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Voting for second base will open at 4 pm today.

Around baseball:

Braves: Reliever Rafael Soriano has accepted the team's offer of arbitration.
Cardinals: Have agreed to a one year, $7.5 million deal for Brad Penny, pending a physical.
Nationals: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a two year deal worth $6 million, acquired reliever Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL, and released reliever Saul Rivera.
Pirates: Signed reliever Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired pitcher Clay Rapada from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Fabio Castro and re-signed Kason Gabbard.
Rockies: Released outfielder Matt Murton, who is expected to spend 2010 in Japan.
Tigers: Re-signed Adam Everett to a one year deal, and signed reliever Brad Thomas, who has spent the last two seasons pitching in Korea.
Twins: Carl Pavano has accepted the team's arbitration offer.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday, so I'm almost done burying you in links like these: Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times and Lisa Winston of MiLB.com have a look at several players who recently played in the Arizona Fall League and were left unprotected in the draft.

Competition is heating up in the market for Edwin Jackson. One report yesterday had the Tigers receiving 12 offers for his services. I guess that's what you get when you put a pitcher who threw over 200 effective innings last season and is due about $5 million on the market.

Speaking of pitchers the Brewers might be interested in, Justin Duchscherer declined the A's offer of salary arbitration.

I think most of us will be happy to see these former Brewers sign elsewhere, and keeping one of them in the division would be a double bonus: Jason Kendall is reportedly drawing interest from the Royals, and Braden Looper has expressed interest in pitching for the Cubs.

In case you were wondering, Keith Law has an explanation of how the Winter Meetings, usually held in a warm vacation spot, ended up in Indianapolis. The cold temps and snow haven't kept people from exchanging some tidbits of info you probably would never have known without the internet (and might not have missed):

There was apparently a small tiff between Scott Boras and new Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog over comments Herzog made about Matt Holliday, a Boras client.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't shoot anything while out deer hunting with Bobby Cox last week.
Former D-Back, Indian, Ray and Ranger Nick Bierbrodt, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2004, is a ttempting a comeback.
New Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is battling a cold this week, so he's not shaking anyone's hand.
Speaking of the Blue Jays, radio reporter Mike Wilner has an annoying ring tone and left his phone in the media workroom yesterday.
Craig Calcaterra brought an airport card to the meetings, making him one of the few writers not reliant on slow internet service.

And, of course we're all having fun this week, but Paul DePodesta has a reminder for all of us that many of this week's rumors will be just that, and not to get too worked up over them. Of course, no one ever gets too worked up around here, right?

Away from the meetings, here's a strange story. After months of investigation, Major League Baseball has concluded that new Twins prospect Miguel Angel Sano, who claims to be 16, is somewhere between 16 and 18. Sano also recently changed his name to Miguel Jean. If he turns out to be Miguel Tejada in disguise, the Twins will probably be very upset.

On this day in 1991, Brewer reliever Julio Machado was arrested for murder after shooting a passenger in a car that had just been involved in an accident. Machado was later found guilty and served 12 years in prison.

I don't have any Brewer birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day, so there's that.

Drink up.

The Astros and Arbitration: Judgement Day...er...kind of...

DyingQuail — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:26:34 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

See, Miguel Tejada looks harmless. There's now ostensible reason not to offer him arbitration based on the gregariousness on display here.

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Forget Super Tuesday or the Tuesday after the first Monday in November this is the day that MLB GM's will finally come to a decision as to whom they will tender offers of arbitration. This very well could be as big as the Hot Stove gets for us—sadly. The paucity of meaningful news in the Astros Hot Stove is belied by the fact that they're a franchise over the coals. Too much money tied up in too few...oh, you've heard this before—sorry.

The Astros could potentially walk away from today with a bevy of 1st Round draft picks for Bobby Heck and co. to work their magic on next June. The other possibility is that the Astros repeat their typical behavior, totally avoid risk, and don't tender a signal arbitration offer (something will result in either a broken Blackberry Tour or MacBook).

Luckily, as Astros Andy so masterfully explains in the post below this one, there's at least one sure fire arbitration offer that will be tendered tonight before 11PM ET (Jose Valverde).* However, as low risk of an arbitration offer as LaTroy Hawkins is, if you're Ed Wade and you haven't sold this to Drayton McLane, you probably need to reevaluate your credentials for the job of GM. Just to make things interesting interms of Miguel Tejada's arbitration decision, Jon Heyman (who really has gotten off too easy for making such a ridiculous stink of the NL Cy Young balloting), lists several interested teams for the aging SS; the Cardinals, Giants, Phillies, and Rangers. Is there a more delectable lists of GM's Who are likely to overspend on an aging SS for absolutely no reason than he was once an MVP? Probably not.

In all seriousness, in a little more than 12 hours, we'll know where the Astros intend to take this organization in the near future. Risk-aversion has it's place in places, but now is not the time for Drayton McLane to clam up and refuse to risk possible arbitration salaries for premium draft picks.

To get you through the day here the links I've assembled in thinking about this brief and semi-stream of consciousness post:

*Do I still think there's a legitimate possibility that we don't offer Valverde arbitration? Yes. Did I spin the sentence this references to make it seem like I didn't account for this in my calculus:? Yes. Sometimes being a fan of this team hurts in so many, many ways. Sometimes the only thing you can do to deal with the pain is lie to yourself.

11/28 - If We Must Discuss This Again...

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

First, we're going to get the stuff that hasn't been covered before out of the way. THEN we can come back to the same old topics.

Cost and Value: Economic Realities (Part 1 of 3) - Pinstripe Alley

Cost and Value: Salaries and Future Value (Part 2 of 3) - Pinstripe Alley

Evaluating the financial efficiency of the Yankees' lineup.

Yeah, I know, MFY fans, eww. But that's no excuse not to read these.

Black Friday Baseball Bargains - Fenway West

Nothing shocking or crazy, just a reminder of what's out there.

Rivals bicker over Red Sox relic - Boston Herald

A coveted piece of Red Sox lore sits deep in Yankee country with an uncertain future as a pair of rival collectors bitterly feud over who will profit from a potential sale of the Olde Town Team’s 1912 World Series trophy.

STORY TIME!!!! And don't give me some excuse about having to hear about Pilgrims and Indians all week - we all know that no one talks about that after the kindergarten plays with construction paper outifts.

The Brain: Humanity's Other Basic Instinct: Math - DISCOVER Magazine

Thanks to Tommy at BtB for this link.

Discussion: The Trade Of The Decade - MLBTradeRumors.com

Torey Lovullo to be named manager of Pawtucket - SoxProspects.com

After the jump, a whole bunch of stuff about assorted Blue Jay players (and a Detroit Tiger as well).

Latest buzz from the MLB offseason - FOX Sports on MSN

Will the Red Sox go after Cabrera? — 1:23 p.m.

There is no evidence to suggest that the Red Sox have approached the Tigers about a trade for first baseman Miguel Cabrera. But besides the Red Sox's obvious need for a slugger such as Cabrera, there is another reason to believe that a conversation between the clubs almost certainly will take place.

Red Sox owner John Henry.

As the Marlins' owner in July 1999, Henry authorized the signing of the 16-year-old Cabrera out of Venezuela for $1.8 million. Less than two months later, the Marlins signed their top draft pick, right-hander Josh Beckett, the No. 2 pick overall, to a four-year, $7 million deal.

Cabrera and Beckett were Henry's two most important player acquisitions for the Marlins. Henry, after taking over the Red Sox in Jan. 2002, reunited with Beckett through a trade in Nov. 2005.

Acquiring Cabrera from his former Marlins GM, Dave Dombrowski, would complete a circle of sorts — and perhaps put Henry in position to win his third World Series with the Red Sox.

Red Sox left with little choice in SS race — 1:12 p.m

Barring a major surprise, the Blue Jays' signing of free-agent shortstop Alex Gonzalez leaves the Red Sox with virtually no choice but to sign Marco Scutaro.

No quality shortstops are known to be available in trade, and the free-agent market is thin on quality defenders at the position.

The shortage, in part, is what motivated the Jays to move quickly on Gonzalez, signing him to a one-year, $2.75 million contract Thursday with a $2.5 million club option for 2011.

The Jays did not want to be caught short at the position, the way the Orioles were in 2008. Pitching is difficult enough in the AL East, especially with a young staff.

Among the available free agents, Orlando Cabrera's defense has declined, and many clubs believe that Miguel Tejada needs to move off short. Adam Everett is a terrific defender, but an even weaker hitter than Gonzalez.

The Jays still will offer arbitration to Scutaro, a Type A free agent; they would play him in left field and bat him leadoff if he accepted a one-year, non-guaranteed deal. Scutaro, though, likely will get a better offer than that from the Red Sox or another club.

His departure would net the Jays two high draft picks as compensation. The Jays also could flip Gonzalez for additional young talent at some point — the free-agent market at short next winter also will be thin, and he is under control for �11 — but they still lack a long-term solution at the position.

It looks like Red Sox will have yet another new shortstop 2010 - The Providence Journal

Try not to gag on the dance metaphor.

How signing Alex Gonzalez could net Toronto a 1st round pick - THT

Alex Gonzalez to Toronto; What Will Red Sox Do Next? - Bleacher Report

If only they would ever give reasoning for WHY they don't want a list of players.

Boston Red Sox Wants Marco Scutaro? The Question Is...WHY?! - Bleacher Report

Oh, SOOOOO close to being good - the end is lacking.

Arbitration deadline could decide a lot - Extra Bases

More hot air on Halladay front - National Post

The Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay.

@SI_JonHeyman

ive heard halladay-shopping jays like jesus montero of #yanks (plus hughes/joba?) and casey kelly of #redsox (plus buchholz?)

Links, comments, plans for vengence if the FO does anything really stupid today, etc. Oh, and Go Gators!