SB Nation - Gorkys Hernandez

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:16:26 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen drives in two-runs with a single off Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher George Sherrill in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: He was a slight overdraft but I like him, excellent defense and it doesn't look like his power was all aluminum.

4) Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: This is an aggressive grade for a high school pitcher with just one pro inning under his belt, but I really like his pitchability and have a strong intuitive feeling about him. He still has some projection left, too. Going to take a risk with this one and put him ahead of Alderson and Lincoln.

5) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Loss of velocity and break on the curve is troubling, but he's still a guy who held his own in Double-A at age 20. Stock has dropped but still an intriguing property as an inning-eater type. Ranks ahead of Lincoln because he's younger.

6) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Command looks all the way back, but components are more those of an inning-eater type than a true ace.

7) Chase D'arnaud, INF, Grade C+: Speed, on-base ability, solid defense, might develop more pop. At worst a good utility guy and could get beyond that.

8) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Uber-tools, particularly speed, but raw with the strike zone.

9) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade C+: Outstanding K/BB ratio. Was hittable after moving up to Lynchburg, though he maintained a good strikeout rate. Great command of decent stuff but need to see in Double-A.

10) Ronald Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm stands out but unsure of future role.

11) Victor Black, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm, Dallas Baptist product has high ceiling but needs better control.

12) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Old for a rookie at age 27, but has nothing left to prove in the minors and knows how to pitch. Another guy with a great K/BB ratio.

13) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect snapped up from the Mariners, could rank as high as 10^th.

14) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: High strikeout rate is off-putting, but he also draws walks, steals bases, and has untapped power potential.

15) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Lively relief arm came out of nowhere, need to see at higher levels but could advance quickly as a pen asset.

16) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade C+: Component ratios at Lynchburg weren't great, but he has a good arm and lefties with above average stuff get plenty of chances.

17) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 12^th. Another high-ceiling arm bought away from college like Von Rosenberg, though not as polished.

18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Baseball America has him at 10^th on their Pirates list due to his tools, but I'm starting to doubt the bat and his skills seem to be stagnating.

19) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Grade C: Another young projectable high school arm bought out of college ball.

20) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Grade C: Less projectable than Stevenson but another interesting prep arm. The rotation in the New York-Penn League and/or Low-A is going to be really intriguing in 2010.

OTHERS: (Grade Cs): Ramon Aguero, RHP; Nate Baker, LHP; Ramon Cabrera, C; Evan Chambers, OF; Jarek Cunningham, INF; Zack Dodson, LHP; Wesley Freeman, OF; Brian Friday, SS; Brock Holt, INF; Jeff Inman, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Jeff Locke, LHP; Jordy Mercer, SS; Quinton Miller, RHP; Bryan Morris, RHP; Danny Moskos, LHP; John Raynor, OF; Hunter Strickland, RHP; Donald Veal, LHP; Neil Walker, 3B.

This farm system is improving, thanks to trades, more aggressive drafting, and additional scouting in Latin America.

Alvarez is the crown jewel, of course, and there isn't a lot really that needs to be said about him. Tabata is a more difficult case, since even if they're right about his age, he risks tweenerdom if his power doesn't come along. I like Tony Sanchez a lot and people need to lay off about the decision to draft him. They poured a ton of money into projectable guys in later rounds, and I think the strategy of mixing skill players with tool players will pay dividends.

The system is thin in position players beyond the top group. I like d'Arnaud but he may end up as just a good role player and not a starter. We'll know more once he faces Double-A pitching. Marte could be anything from a big star to a huge bust. Heavy investments have been made in young pitching recently. I like Von Rosenberg the best of the bunch, but Cain, Pounders, Stevenson, Dodson, and Miller all have significant upside potential. There are also live-armed guys who could help in the bullpen relatively soon, and there are inning-eaters such as Lincoln, Alderson, and Strickland to provide some leavening to the upside guys.

If what I saw in Arizona is any indication, Donald Veal could be a surprise success in 2010.

The Pirates could use some additional bats to go with all these arms, but overall this is an organization on the right track in terms of player development. The debut of Andrew McCutchen was just the first step.

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

Cubs

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

What About Depth?

Charlie — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:04:21 -0000

Sorry for the absence of updates the past few days; it can be hard to post when there isn't much news coming out.

Anyway, there was some interesting discussion of the BA top prospects here, and the basic take-away criticism (particularly from Mike Emeigh, a smart long-time Pirates fan and critic) is that the Pirates' farm system still isn't that strong yet. If you look only at the ten-player list BA published, I think that's true, but I don't think a list of ten players tells the whole story.

Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington have been on the job about two years, and thus have had two drafts to improve what was essentially a barren system. They've also fixated pretty intensely on high school talent after the first round in those drafts, at least in the guys to whom they've paid big bonuses. Lots of them have considerable upside, but given their age, understandably haven't done enough to make it into the top ten yet. And so any evaluation of the Pirates' system that doesn't take guys like Robbie Grossman, Quinton Miller, Jarek Cunningham, Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson into account just isn't really getting it done.

Then there's the fact that the Pirates traded away most of their starting players, and only three players acquired in those trades (Jose Tabata, Tim Alderson and Gorkys Hernandez) fit into BA's top ten--and even then, including Hernandez was probably a stretch. The problem was that besides Jason Bay, the Pirates didn't have anyone particularly good to trade. The Pirates' return for Bay was mediocre, which hurt, but it was counterbalanced by the fact that they got a very good prospect (Tabata), a good starting pitcher (Ross Ohlendorf) and another interesting player (Dan McCutchen) for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. That trade was, it turns out, a steal for the Pirates.

Beyond that, the Pirates' problem has been that teams are increasingly unwilling to trade genuinely excellent prospects. It's a hard enough sell to get two great prospects when you're trying to trade Cliff Lee. When you're trying to trade Jack Wilson, it's pretty much impossible. As a result, a lot of the players the Bucs got in trades fit into the #11-#30 bracket. This includes Jeff Locke (from the Nate McLouth deal), Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock (from Wilson and Ian Snell) and Josh Harrison (from John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny).

All of which is to say that the Pirates have done pretty well with the options available to them, and given the obstacles they've encountered in getting obvious impact talents, they've done well in building a farm system that's 30 deep, not just ten deep. And there's really nothing wrong with most of the guys they've acquired, either in the draft or in trades, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if several from among Grossman, Miller, Cunningham, Cain, Stevenson, Locke, Lorin, Adcock, Brooks Pounders, Victor Black and Justin Wilson broke out and joined the top ten next year.

The top ten still does look a bit thin right now. But I'm not sure how Huntington and Coonelly could have acquired a bunch of talent much faster. Getting more for Bay would have been great, as would signing Miguel Sano. And reasonable people can disagree about the Pirates' strategy in the first round of the 2009 draft. Overall, though, I think their plan and execution have been quite good. And I think that if Dave Littlefield had done his job and left some interesting guys in A-ball who'd just now be graduating into the top ten themselves, there wouldn't seem to be a problem. Huntington and Coonelly have been placed in the awkward position of having to acquire lots of those sorts of players themselves and then wait for them to develop.

Bucs Make Flurry of Roster Moves

Charlie — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:39:04 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Chris Jakubauskas throws against the Angels in the third inning of a game Wednesday, May 20, 2009, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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The Pirates have cut Robinzon Diaz, Justin Thomas and Jeff Karstens from the 40-man roster, added Brad Lincoln, Gorkys Hernandez, Bryan Morris and Ramon Aguero, and claimed reliever Chris Jakubauskas from the Mariners.

Thomas and Karstens aren't huge surprises--Thomas was claimed from the M's only a couple weeks ago, and Karstens was arbitration-eligible--but I'm a surprised by Diaz being cut. He was a perfectly functional backup catcher for chunks of last year, and functional backup catchers are valuable. If one looks at the entirety of his performance record, though, it's not that impressive--he actually hit worse at AAA last year than he did in the majors. So I suppose there's a case to be made that he wouldn't continue to be productive with the Pirates if he stuck with them. If Diaz is lost and Ryan Doumit is traded, the Bucs will have to hunt around for another catcher. This could be a sign that the Pirates are taking Jeff Clement seriously as a catcher, although it also might have nothing to do with that at all.

Jakubauskas doesn't have much of a performance record and he's already 30, but he has a great curveball and he held his own in the American League last year, albeit with a really low strikeout rate, and the sort of flyball tendency that plays better in Safeco than anywhere else but San Diego.

Pirates Face 40-Man Roster Decisions This Week

Charlie — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 02:00:54 -0000

40-man rosters have to be set by Friday, so expect some fun stuff to happen this week.

The Bucs currently have 36 players on their 40-man roster. That doesn't include Jose Ascanio and Evan Meek, who will both need to be protected by Friday. The Pirates will also have to decide whether to include a number of minor leaguers, any of whom could be selected in the Rule 5 draft in December if they aren't protected:

Brad Lincoln, Gorkys Hernandez, Bryan Morris, Ramon Aguero, Casey Erickson, Michael Dubee, Shelby Ford, Jim Negrych, Kris Watts

Of these, I'd say Lincoln and Hernandez are no-brainers.

Morris is a tricky case; scouts like him a lot and the Pirates certainly paid a pretty penny to get him, but the performance record so far hasn't been there, and it's very hard to see how he could stick on another team's 25-man roster for the entire year.

WTM is a big fan of Aguero, a reliever who spent time with West Virginia, Lynchburg and Altoona last year. Aguero had a nice season in 2009 and has followed that up with a good showing in the Dominican Winter League, but I'm agnostic here. He's almost 25, so he's not a great prospect. Every year the Pirates protect these sorts of marginal pitchers, mostly relievers--Jeff Sues, Dave Davidson, Romulo Sanchez, Luis Munoz, Olivo Astacio, Ronald Belisario, and so on--and never do they seem to get anything out of them. (Ok, Astacio was released because of behavioral issues, and Belisario blossomed with the Dodgers, but still.) The problem with Aguero is that he'd be easier than Morris to hide on a big-league roster for a year, and because he played well this year and has good stuff, there would be reason for a team who selected him to hope he wouldn't end up hurting them too badly. I'd probably protect him, but I don't think we should expect much from him in the long haul.

The other guys, though at least vaguely intriguing, can probably be left off. Erickson is too far from the majors, Dubee doesn't have great stuff, and Ford and Negrych haven't shown enough in the minors. (Negrych might have some vague chance of being taken in the Rule 5 and used as a bench bat.) Watts is only a nominal prospect because he's a catcher.

So let's say three spots will be needed for Lincoln, Hernandez and Aguero, and possibly a fourth for Morris. The Pirates would probably also prefer to leave one spot for their own Rule 5 pick, although they can also dump someone later to make room.

All this means that probably a couple of players will be dumped from the roster this week. Of those, Sues, Anthony Claggett, Justin Thomas, Brian Bixler, and Luis Cruz would all be potential candidates.

Community Projection Review: Center Field

Charlie — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 20:20:39 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

5 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen follows through on his double against the Florida Marlins in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Miami, Friday, July 3, 2009. Pirates' Jason Jaramillo scored on the double and the Pirates won 7-4. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

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Next up in our review of our community projections is Nate McLouth.

Community: .276/.355/.480

ZiPS: .261/.342/.459

Actual (including time with the Braves): .256/.352/.436

Bonus: We predicted McLouth would get his first caught stealing on May 21; actually, he didn't get one until June 22, although he got six overall with the Braves, including four after returning in September from a hamstring injury.

ZiPS got us good here, although it's worth pointing out that McLouth hit .256/.349/.470 with the Bucs. The closest guesser was mocasdad, who had McLouth at .260/.340/.440.

The McLouth deal will, I think, turn out to be one of Neal Huntington's better ones, even if Gorkys Hernandez never pans out. Charlie Morton alone could make the trade a good one, and if Jeff Locke makes it, well, all the better. The Bucs got three interesting players for one they didn't really need that desperately.

McLouth was perfectly functional in 2009, but he still took a large step backward--he hit for less average and power, he was less healthy, and he stole bases less effectively. UZR says his defense did improve, but those things can fluctuate a lot from year to year, and my guess there is that he's still slightly below average overall. (The very low statistical ratings he got in 2008 were a little bit ridiculous, and so, probably, is the idea that he was above average this year.)

The McLouth trade probably wasn't based primarily on a position crunch, but McLouth may have greased the wheels for a trade by balking, at least at first, at the idea of moving to a corner. This would have put the Pirates in the awkward situation of having two good centerfielders (Andrew McCutchen, who was banging on the door at AAA, and Nyjer Morgan) in the corners and a mediocre centerfielder actually in center. It's not entirely clear what McLouth's position on the matter was--Doug Mientkiewicz claimed at one point that McLouth wasn't willing to move, but then Dejan Kovacevic later wrote that McLouth might have been willing to move but didn't feel he should have to "automatically forfeit the position." Which begs the question of how exactly McLouth thought a determination should have been made--paper/rock/scissors, maybe? Anyway, McLouth has value as a sort of marginal centerfielder, but not so much to a team that has McCutchen, and as a corner outfielder, McLouth is fine but nothing special.

In any case, the Bucs immediately replaced McLouth with a much better player in McCutchen. McLouth and McCutchen actually have a fair amount in common: they're both high-percentage basestealers with a broad base of hitting skills. But McCutchen is much faster and thus has better range in center, and he also hit for better average and power than McLouth in 2009 and is likely to continue to improve. McCutchen was highly regarded before being promoted, but even so, his major-league debut was surprisingly good. Here's his community projection, which we did back in March:

Community: .264/.334/.392

ZiPS: .261/.337/.362

Actual: .286/.365/.471

Oops! I love it when we make these kinds of mistakes. Anyway, the closest guesser was Matt Bandi, who predicted McCutchen would go .280/.340/.400, so no one got terribly close. (UPDATE: Oops! Actually, Brakeman8 had McCutchen at .280/.340/.415. Sorry!)

The fact that McCutchen surpassed expectations to such a great degree (he even left his 90% PECOTA projection in the dust) might lead us to believe that he'll come back to earth next year. That certainly might happen to a degree, but I'm less worried about it than I might be in some cases. Most of McCutchen's surprising growth came from his power, which scouts have always thought he would add--it was just a matter of when. That he would suddenly add it at 22 is younger than I would have expected for a player with his body type, but the power is clearly legitimate: he belted the ball all year. And as I've written before--actually, I wrote it about McLouth back when he was a young player--well-rounded young hitters set themselves up for power breakouts by controlling the strike zone and having a broad base of skills from which to draw. The power breakouts don't always happen, but they happen enough that we shouldn't be too surprised when they do. Anything can happen, but there's really nothing to dislike about McCutchen going forward.

Pirates Top 30 Prospects: October 2009 Edition

Charlie — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:01:57 -0000

Rudy Owens (photo: Dustin Baldwin)

Since the last Top 30 Prospects Feature was a fairly popular one, I thought it might be a good idea to make it a regular feature, appearing every couple months. So here's a new edition now that the season is over; I'll probably do another one when there's some winter ball data to work with, and then a few during the 2010 season. Let me know if you think this is a good idea.

All the caveats I described last time still apply, so if you have any questions about how I made the rankings, the first few paragraphs in the last post may be able to answer your questions.

Any player with less than 130 big-league at bats or less than 50 big-league innings pitched is eligible for inclusion, unless I arbitrarily determined he spent too much time in the big leagues despite not reaching those thresholds. (I'm leaving off Steven Jackson and Donald Veal for that reason.)

Ranking about #7 down to about #21 was the most difficult part of this list. Several guys near the end of that range actually played pretty well since the last ranking but moved down anyway, because they had other players leapfrogging them.

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Altoona. Grade: A-. Previous ranking: 1. If there's anything to worry about here, it's that Alvarez won't hit for a high average in the majors; he batted only .259 in 54 at bats for the USA's World Cup team. He did, however, slug .574, and he's only just now finishing his first pro season.

2. Tony Sanchez, C, Lynchburg. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 2. Again, I'm ranking him aggressively, and given the way he performed after being drafted I'm willing to give the front office the benefit of the doubt for now, and be open to the possibility that Sanchez is better than some prospect watchers thought he was.

3. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 3. Tabata finished the season slowly, posting a .693 OPS in September. He also struggled against righties for Indy, posting a .608 OPS against them. Tabata has been a very good prospect for years and he keeps rising through the system, basically deserving the promotions he gets. But he has never really answered questions about whether he can hit for power. He'll get another shot in the Arizona Fall League.

4. Rudy Owens, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 7. I remain skeptical of Owens, who doesn't have shut-down stuff and allows too many fly balls. But after being promoted to Lynchburg shortly before the last list came out, he kept doing what he does, striking out his fair share of batters and hardly walking any. Carolina League batters did have a slightly easier time taking him deep than South Atlantic League hitters did, but Owens is a good pitching prospect until he proves otherwise.

5. Brad Lincoln, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 5. A perfectly nice pitching prospect, but he hardly dominated in 2009 in the minors, and he'll be 25 in May. Lincoln pitched well for Team USA, but didn't have a dominating strikeout rate in a small sample.

6. Starling Marte, OF, Lynchburg. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 8. We don't have much data to work with, but so far there's nothing not to like, except maybe the fact that Marte struck out four times as often as he walked--and even that isn't necessarily a big deal for a player who was promoted very aggressively in his first season in the U.S. Marte hits for average, he has some power, he runs like the wind, and the Pirates obviously love him. Sign me up.

7. Robbie Grossman, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 6. Grossman slugged just .308 after the All-Star break, and it's pretty likely that he was just tired. The terrific OBP suggests he's going to be a good player; the 164 strikeouts says beware.

8. Tim Alderson, SP, Altoona. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 4. Yes, Alderson is a good pitching prospect who was a couple rungs higher in the system than most pitchers his age. But what he did after joining the Pirates organization should concern us a bit, as his strikeout rate went from iffy to downright bad.

9. Zach Von Rosenberg, SP, Bradenton. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 9. Von Rosenberg pitched one scoreless inning in the GCL; as the best arm in a 2009 Pirates draft that was filled with interesting pitchers, he'll hopefully make it to West Virginia next year.

10. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Lynchburg. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 16. D'Arnaud hit well, with a good OBP, at West Virginia, then did basically the same thing but with more power at Lynchburg. He was perhaps a hint too old for the level, but it was his first pro season. He's a good, well-rounded player who hits for average, draws walks and plays good defense, and with the Bucs currently shaky in the middle infield, he'll have a clear path to the majors if he keeps hitting. He'll join Tabata in the Arizona Fall League.

11. Quinton Miller, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 17. Miller gets a bump after improving throughout his short season and posting a very respectable overall line as a 19-year-old at West Virginia. I probably underrated him a bit last time.

12. Jeff Locke, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 11. The only reason Locke is ranked lower than before is that I felt I needed to move D'Arnaud and Miller up. Actually, the end to Locke's regular season was terrific--beginning with his July 29 start against Wilmington, he struck out 35 batters and walked just six, with an ERA of 2.58. It's way too early for despair about the Nate McLouth trade. Locke and Charlie Morton could make that deal a very, very good one for the Bucs, even if Gorkys Hernandez doesn't come along.

13. Daniel McCutchen, SP, Pittsburgh. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 12. How you grade McCutchen depends upon how you weigh potential versus certainty, I suppose. As McCutchen showed, he's ready to be a functional back-of-the-rotation guy right now. The problem is that he's probably going to allow a ton of homers as a major-league starting pitcher.

14. Brett Lorin, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 13. No one ever talks about him, but Lorin struck out a batter an inning all year, and he posted a microscopic ERA after arriving in the Jack Wilson deal. Like Owens, he gives up lots of flyballs, and the ERA will probably take a hit after he's promoted to Lynchburg and faces more batters who have the ability to take him deep. (And ERA is pretty low on the list of tools we should use to evaluate minor league pitchers anyway.) Still, Lorin is a huge dude with a very good performance record, and I see no reason not to be cautiously optimistic about him.

15. Colton Cain, SP, No level. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 14. Cain still hasn't pitched a pro inning yet, but he was probably the second-best arm the Bucs signed from the '09 draft.

16. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 10. Hernandez was terrible for Altoona; you have to look pretty hard to find a facet of the game in which he excelled. He's ranked at #16 because of his age, and not because of anything he did this year.

17. Justin Wilson, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. Wilson, the Bucs' fifth-rounder in 2008, makes a big run up the charts with an excellent second half. His disastrous first half now looks like merely an extended adjustment period after an aggressive assignment in his first pro season.

18. Neil Walker, 3B, Pittsburgh. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 26. Walker finished brilliantly at Indianapolis, posting a .339 average in August that made his overall season line respectable. He didn't hit well in 36 at bats in the majors, but that's not such a concern. The problem is that he hits for low averages and, unlike, say, Alvarez, doesn't draw walks. Those are huge red flags. There have been a number of major league third basemen with Walker's basic profile (power, defense, an inability to get on base), such as Brandon Inge, Tony Batista and Pedro Feliz. But Walker has less power than any of them right now, and while he certainly could add it, it's worth pointing out that all those guys are or were frustrating, though still useful, players.

19. Bryan Morris, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 15. I know this is supposed to be a highly-regarded prospect, but as with Hernandez, it's just about impossible to find anything Morris did well this season. It's too early to write him off, but the Pirates would probably be wise to keep him at Lynchburg next year; he's had a ton of injuries, and he has probably moved a little too quickly.

20. Trent Stevenson, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 19. The live-armed Stevenson was excellent in the GCL, allowing only two runs in his first 15 pro innings.

21. Brooks Pounders, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 18. Don't read anything into Pounders being moved down; he did have one terrible start in August, but otherwise his year was as good as you'd hope. He moves down only because Wilson and Walker move up.

22. Ronald Uviedo, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 22. Uviedo slowed down after missing time in midsummer, but overall he pitched well, especially given that he started in 2009 after relieving in 2008.

23. Victor Black, SP, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 30. Black, a compensation pick for losing out on Tanner Scheppers last year, finished very strongly for the Spikes, and it'll be interesting to see how he does with a heavier workload at West Virginia next year. Baseball America ranked him the sixth-best prospect in the New York-Penn League.

24. Jarek Cunningham, IF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 24. Cunningham sat out the year with a torn ACL, but now he's back, playing in the Florida Instructional League. Watch out for him next year.

25. Quincy Latimore, OF, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 20. Latimore completely fell apart in August and September. As with a few other players on this list, it's possible he was just tired in his first full season. But Latimore's strike zone control was atrocious the whole year, and that can be the sort of stuff that collapses are made of too. Still, he was young for his level and has terrific power.

26. Exicardo Cayonez, OF, VSL Grade: C. Previous ranking: 25. The VSL season ended soon after the last ranking, so there's no reason to move Cayonez around too much.

27. Nathan Adcock, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 23. Adcock, another of the pitchers acquired in the Jack Wilson deal, struggled a bit down the stretch, although that's no reason for grave concern, since he pitched about 50 more innings in 2009 than he did in 2008. He'll presumably start out at Lynchburg again in 2010, but a quick start could have him in Altoona by summer.

28. Evan Chambers, OF, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. The Pirates' 2009 third-round pick makes the list this time by improving throughout the year for the Spikes--after a .631 OPS in July, he posted an .881 in August and .867 in September. He walked in 20% of his plate appearances, which is impressive for a 19-year-old at any level, but he also struck out 78 times in 200 at bats. It appears he needs to work on finding pitches he can hit earlier in the count. He also struggled against righties.

29. Brock Holt, SS, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. Like Chambers, Holt improved throughout State College's season, posting a .738 OPS before the break and a 1.052 OPS after it. He is also, for now, a shortstop. As WTM likes to point out, State College's home park appears to favor lefties like Holt, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts at State College. (Chambers is a righty, and he hit better on the road than at home; for Holt, it was the opposite.)

30. Josh Harrison, IF, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 21. Harrison has been plain awful since the last ranking, and the chief reason why is that he struck out 19 times compared with only one walk since arriving from the Cubs system in the John Grabow deal. He has controlled the strike zone fairly well in the past, so I'm not sure what happened there. He's not old, but there's a lot working against him, particularly his size and the fact that he's unlikely to ever have enough power to be a regular third baseman.

OFF THE LIST FOR NOW: OF Rogelios Noris, RP Michael Dubee, SS Argenis Diaz.

ALSO WORTH WATCHING (and thanks to WTM and his awesome list of prospects in the Dominican and Venezuelan leagues): C Ramon Cabrera, C Joseph Schoenfeld, 1B Aaron Baker, 1B Calvin Anderson, SS Jordy Mercer, SS Jonathan Barrios, SS Brian Friday, SS Benjamin Gonzalez, SS Jordaneli Carvajal, IF Jim Negrych, 3B Eric Avila, OF David Pino, OF Jesus Vasquez, SP Zack Dodson, SP Jeff Inman, SP Nate Baker, SP Nelson Pereira, SP Mitchell Fienemann, SP Zachary Fuesser, SP Hunter Strickland, SP Aaron Pribanic, SP Jhonathan Ramos, SP Roberto Espinoza, SP Clario Perez, SP Porfirio Lopez, SP Fraylin Campos, SP Jason Erickson, SP Daniel Moskos, SP Eric Hacker, SP Tyler Herron, RP Diego Moreno, RP Casey Erickson, RP Anthony Claggett, RP Jeff Sues

2009 In Review: Altoona Curve

Charlie — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 19:49:38 -0000

I've been doing these in order from the bottom to the top, but since Lynchburg is still in the playoffs, I'll skip them in return to them later.

Altoona finished last in the Southern division of the Class AA Eastern League, and it's the first affiliate we've reviewed so far that still bears the stamp of the Littlefield era. The team's lineup featured a ton of non-prospects, like Jonel Pacheco, Jason Delaney, Pedro Lopez and Jeff Corsaletti. And its rotation was filled with soft-tossing Littlefield acquisitions like Danny Moskos, Yoslan Herrera, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson and Derek Hankins.

Despite all that, a number of prospects made their way through Altoona this year, some with more success than others. Obviously, the big-ticket player was Pedro Alvarez, who reeestablished himself as an elite prospect at Altoona after a questionable pro debut at Lynchburg. The Bucs looked at his high strikeout and walk totals at Lynchburg and gambled that, paradoxically, Alvarez would have more success against better pitchers, because those pitchers would fear him less and throw him more balls in the zone. The Pirates appear to have been right--at Altoona, Alvarez walked at about the same rate, struck out a bit less, and hit .333/.419/.590, looking every bit like a future star. This was all the more impressive given that Alvarez got off to a slow start for Altoona, hitting .228/.258/.509 before the All-Star break; he batted .370 the rest of the way. Obviously, hitting .228 is never good, but for a prospect in his first pro year, it's great to see improvement throughout the season.

Elsewhere, Jose Tabata played a big chunk of the year for the Curve and hit pretty well, although his power still hasn't really developed. Most of the other hitting prospects who played for Altoona, though, were disappointing. The defensively challenged Jim Negrych failed to show the stick he'll need to make it to the majors, and he finished the year on the DL. 2007 third-rounder Brian Friday was pedestrian at best, which is unfortunate because, with the recent trades of Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, there would be space for him in the Pittsburgh middle infield if he played well. Jamie Romak completely fell off the map after a dismal start and wound up back at Lynchburg. Shelby Ford ended up in Altoona only after flopping in Indianapolis. Gorkys Hernandez did little after the Bucs acquired him as one of the key pieces in the Nate McLouth deal. And 40-man roster member Steven Lerud did what he typically does, which is to say he didn't take the step forward he'll need to be anything more than a backup catcher in the bigs.

Fortunately, there were at least a couple real prospects in the pitching staff. Brad Lincoln opened some eyes with a very strong start at Altoona; he struggled a bit after being promoted to Indianapolis, but he still had respectable ratios, so he's probably still on track to make his Pirates debut in 2010. Tim Alderson, acquired for Sanchez, pitched neither well nor badly in a small sample at Altoona. I'm more skeptical of Alderson than most because his strikeout rate has been very low in Class AA, but at age 20, he's still an interesting player. And in the bullpen, Michael Dubee continued to pitch well after destroying Carolina League hitters for half the year.

Some might wonder why I've hardly said anything about Moskos, and the reason is that I simply don't consider ERA to be the only important consideration here. Moskos' 3.74 ERA and his status as a former top pick are the only things he has going for him. He's already 23, his strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio--both of which are pretty predictive of major-league success--are disastrous, and all his numbers except his ERA are eerily similar to his numbers in 2008, when his ERA was 5.95. To Moskos' credit, he did strike out 27 batters while walking only six in his last five starts this year, but he still has very little to hang his hat on. As far as I'm concerned, he's only a prospect in the loosest sense of the word, and if he's lucky he might be the second lefty out of someone's bullpen someday.

Analysis of a Fire Sale: The Pittsburgh Pirates, Pt. 3

SFiercex4 — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 21:51:36 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Pirates starter Charlie Morton appears to be a critical acquisition in Pittsburgh's trading spree.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

(Note: All research and projections were done two and a half weeks ago, but this article was simply not written out then due to other commitments. Any changes due to more recent results can be blamed on my laziness. Adjust accordingly if you'd like.)

Parts 1 and 2 (shown here and here) detailed the players that left the Pittsburgh Pirates this year in trades and how much surplus value they may have provided over the life of their remaining contracts. The Pirates gave up ten players, some of real worth due to their contract status, some not as much due to the remaining length and price of their deals. Using the projections and Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator, I came up with a surplus value of $86.8M.

(Addendum: An emailer and blogger for the Pirates vehemently denies that the Pirates would have non-tendered Tom Gorzelanny. I'm unsure about this, especially given my prediction of another player that the Pirates received of similar value, but if you feel the Pirates would have tendered Gorzelanny after a season of rookie contract team control, add an additional $7M to that $86.8M, calculated as either a 160 inning starter or a 65 inning reliever.

However, the haul the Pirates got in return is almost entirely under team control for the next half decade, with the exception of a few players. Can these players provide the value the Pirates need to offset that large value? We'll find out after the jump.

The Pirates received 18 players in return for the ten they dealt away. Of those 18, I considered 13 of them to be valued as prospects based on Victor Wang's research on the value of prospects. Of those 13 players, three of them I deemed organizational fillers that added no value to the team above replacement. This is more of a function of me unable to utilize either a projection system or Wang's research, which is based on both Baseball America's Top 100 rankings and John Sickel's prospect grades. The remaining five players were given projections based on how major league performance and major league equivalents for minor league performance. Major league equivalents were provided by Minor League Splits. Let's get started.

The Prospects

Thirteen players were labeled prospects for the purposes of this evaluation. Of the thirteen, three players were most discussed in terms of their potential: former Atlanta Braves prospects OF Gorkys Hernandez and LHP Jeff Locke, and former San Francisco Giants prospect RHP Tim Alderson. Two of those players, Hernandez and Alderson, were in Baseball America's Top 100 list and thus derived the most value when using Victor Wang's valuation system. Of the players who were valued using John Sickel's grades, only Locke was graded at a B or higher. The remaining players were graded at C or deemed organizational fillers and thus not valued.

Here's the table in descending value:

So not considering any value from the players that have played in the majors, we can estimate $47.3M in value in the prospects acquired alone. Most of that value is tied to Alderson and Hernandez, and if you don't value those guys highly enough, you can knock them down a peg or so to the next area of value. But these are based on the preseason rankings by BA and Sickels' preseason grades.

This means the remaining five players acquired need to make up an expected surplus value of $39.5M, or around $40M, to make up for the value traded away.

Ronny Cedeno

Of the five players mentioned, Ronny Cedeno holds the least future value for the Pirates. He is regarded as a all-glove, no-hit shortstop, but over his career he hasn't had much of a glove at short either. When running a weighted projection and regressing his UZR/150 to the mean, I got a UZR/150 of -0.8 runs at shortstop. This isn't likely to be enough to make up for his terrible bat. Given that the Pirates don't have anyone coming up to play shortstop for them soon, you can expect to see Cedeno at least for one season with the Pirates. Here's what I got for Cedeno's value.

The calculator presumes some sort of positive value of production when calculating the arbitration salary, but in this case Cedeno is shown to be just about replacement level. Just for ease, I gave Cedeno $1M, which would be a $1.1M loss to the Pirates. Combined with the value Cedeno's provided so far this season, and you actually get a small positive gain from Cedeno's services.

Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton has started for the Pirates since being traded from Atlanta in the Nate McLouth deal. So far this year, in part due to his ability to hold off the home run, Morton has shown to be an average starter with 4.34 FIP. In Morton's previous stint in the big leagues with Atlanta, however, he was hammered, posting a 5.14 FIP and walking almost as many as he struck out. Using the ZiPS end of season projection and the appropriate weighting and regression, here's the sort of production we might expect from Morton.

With the regression, you get a projected 4.68 FIP for Morton, good for 1.5 WAR in 160 innings. Giving him a little bit more WAR in his subsequent years to show a modicum of growth, Morton's average production over his rookie contract and arbitration years would be worth $21.2M to the Pirates. Note that this takes into account that Morton would qualify as a "Super Two" for arbitration.

This is production similar to that of a player the Pirates traded away, LHP Tom Gorzelanny. While the differences between lefties and righties in terms of scarcity are significant, their age and projection of their production is somewhat similar. If we treat Morton as a "Super Two" player eligible for arbitration in his second year with the Pirates, both him and Gorzelanny would be under team control for the same number of years. A similar projection for Gorzelanny leaves him worth about $7M short of Morton's projection.

Jeff Clement

Jeff Clement was a former first-round draft pick out of USC and was supposed to be the catcher of the future in Seattle. However, despite solid seasons in the minors prior to 2008, Clement's only extended look in the majors ended with a .289 wOBA in 224 PA. There are also issues with Clement's defense at catcher and the need for a potential move to first base.

Having been traded to the Pirates will not help Clement's chances at playing time. The team's current catcher, Ryan Doumit, is signed on for two seasons after this one, and the Pirates system also includes Jason Jaramillo, who started the majority of the games this season with Doumit out with injury, and 2009 first round pick Tony Sanchez. At first base, there is the potential of highly touted prospect Pedro Alvarez being moved across the diamond to first base due to defensive issues at third. Thus, it appears Clement, who was immediately optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis when acquired by the Pirates, may be blocked at the only positions he can play.

Using minor league equivalents for Clement's Triple-A seasons and adding on his major league time, then using the typical projection and regression to the mean for his time in the majors, we get a projected .324 wOBA. I gave Clement's 100 games and 400 PA split between catcher and first base; he gets 40 games at catcher as the primary backup to Doumit and considering Doumit's prior injury history, and 60 games at first base considering the multitude of other players that could potentially play first for the Pirates. For defense, there isn't much of a track record of Clement's defense at first base, so I gave him an average score at the position. Giving him the appropriate adjustments, it yields this sort of production from the calculator.

Even this sort of low production in limited playing time by Clement can yield close to $20M in surplus value because of his pre-arbitration years. This doesn't give a whole lot of variation to Clement's production either, and even at age 26, there's still an opportunity for him to shape up into an average major league player. In addition, if his defense at catcher improves and becomes acceptable at the major league level, he may supplant the oft-injured Doumit if there aren't better options, and more playing time at catcher combined with average defense may be the best way for Clement to provide value.

Lastings Milledge

Lastings Milledge is another former highly-touted prospect, originally from the Mets organization. Milledge was dealt last year to the Washington Nationals, where he spent the year playing center field and showing that he wasn't a center fielder. However, he started this season in center field for the Nationals, but spent only seven games with the big league club before being sent down to the minors, where he remained until being traded in that controversial deal for Nyjer Morgan. The Pirates eventually brought him up to the majors and began starting him in left field.

Milledge's hitting has never met the expectations of the organization's he's been a part of. Using ZiPS projections and major league equivalents for his Triple-A seasons for the weighted projection and regression to the mean, I got an expected wOBA of .320, not far off from his career .317 wOBA in 1201 plate appearances. Given that the Pirates already have a center fielder of the future in Andrew McCutchen, Milledge's playing time would primarily be in the corners, where I have him projected as a -3 defender per 150 defensive games. Putting this all together in 137 games and giving him some extra WAR for his age and you get this from the calculator.

There isn't a whole lot to go with here. Pushing him up to 0.6 WAR still gives him a surplus value below $10M. Much of the argument for the positives of the Nyjer Morgan trade lied in the potential of Lastings Milledge. While he does still have room to grow, the Pirates would have to receive at least a league average player in order to get close to the value in return from Morgan.

Joel Hanrahan

Joel Hanrahan had proven so far to be a decent reliever for the Nationals despite a sky-high ERA this season. Coming off of the deal, most analysts felt Hanrahan was an excellent pickup as a reliever for the Pirates as a throw-in in the Milledge-Morgan trade, as in most defense-independent pitching stats Hanrahan was a clear favorite over the player the Pirates traded away, Sean Burnett. Hanrahan is also under team control for a few more seasons. Projecting and regressing his FIP for next season yields a solid 4.08 FIP, right in line with his ZiPS expected rest-of-season total. Projecting this sort of production over 70 innings for the next few years and you get this from the calculator.

As far as relievers go, that is pretty good value for Hanrahan, especially given that Burnett, the guy they replaced with Hanrahan, was closer to replacement level. If Hanrahan is good enough or if the Pirates recognize his ability, he could get a shot at closing for the team, which would give him higher leverage situations and improve his WAR values as well.

Here's the total for just those players.

The Grand Finale

The grand total for the Pirates acquired players, including both the prospects and the five players projected values, comes out to $91.1M, for a net surplus (based on my expectations) of $4.3M of value. There are perhaps a few assumptions here that are of question, in particular A) the lack of growth in terms of production given their age by the acquired players for whom I did projections, and B) the non-tendering of a few players that the Pirates had, particularly Tom Gorzelanny, who was the youngest of the players dealt away, and C) the somewhat high evaluation of Nyjer Morgan. I believe that those are of the magnitude where, taken as a whole, they are likely to even out, so I am of the opinion that this analysis more or less holds.

The Pirates gained an extremely large amount of service time tied up in young players who are either prospects or haven't had a lot of major league service. By my count, the Pirates brought back in 101 years of service time spread out between 18 players. However, much of that service time is unknown, and there is certainly no guarantee that all or even half of those players will see that sort of time on the Pirates big league club.

The key to this set of trades lies in the fulfillment of a number of prospects. The three players at the top of the list of prospects, Tim Alderson, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke, could each become assets to the big league club beyond what those values have them at. As you saw in the case of Charlie Morton, a 1.5 WAR pitcher is a guy who puts up around a 4.7 FIP, decently below average, and yet still valuable to the club, according to the often used method of valuation of WAR. If Alderson and Locke can become just below average pitchers, they'll hold plenty of value for a team that will be paying them well below market value, and it will push the value of the deals even further towards the side of the Pirates.

Essentially, the Pirates dealt known commodities for plenty of lottery tickets of varying chances of success, a well-known strategy of such . None of the players they acquired were sure positive commodities, but most of them had potential, including the players who had accrued a good deal of major league time. The Pirates took a chance on players like Milledge and Clement, players who were still young but no longer considered "prospects," on the off chance that they realize the potential once seen in them. If either player becomes league average and receives adequate playing time, the Pirates will have received more than adequate return on their tickets.

The Value of Change

Is there also something to be said about the fact that change was made in the first place? GM Neal Huntington received the ire of a lot of fans last season when he dealt Xavier Nady, but so far the returns have been promising. The Pirates organization for years had been running in circles, unwilling to move into a clear rebuilding campaign and instead filling the major league roster with middling veterans such as the likes of Joe Randa, Matt Morris, and Jeremy Burnitz, while neglecting to focus on the farm system. Huntington has changed the way the Pirates work with their farm system, apparently retooling the draft strategy from the days of Dave Littlefield, and in this set of trades he has sought to rebuild a thin farm with desperately needed quantity.

Huntington has attacked this problem by trading players who likely had no future in a winning PIttsburgh team. While we can never be sure that Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, or Freddy Sanchez would not have produced a playoff berth for Pittsburgh, the previous core had had its chance for almost three years without results. While there may not be specific monetary value in the way the Pirates front office has attacked rebuilding the team, there is something be said for an organization that realizes its current iteration does not have much chance for success. Apparently, Huntington saw this and decided to rebuild, which was likely the correct move. The rewards he reaps from the previous core will mostly be seen in three to five years, and maybe then we can have a better evaluation of whether the entire process was a success.

Poll

Did the Pirates come out on top in their trades as a whole?

Yes

152 votes

No

26 votes

Defering until 2012

87 votes

265 votes | Poll has closed

2009 Pittsburgh Pirates Top 30 Prospects

Charlie — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 07:02:36 -0000

The signing of Zach Von Rosenberg means the Pirates have inked all the 2009 draftees they picked who'd fit into this list right away, so I'll go ahead and post this now. A couple notes:

Prospect rankings are, by their nature, speculative, and this list is more speculative than most, since such a large percentage of the Pirates' actual prospects were selected in the last two drafts. Obviously, it's extremely hard to tell how an 18-year-old pitcher will fare in the majors, and comparing a high-upside high school pitcher to a more polished AA or AAA player is extremely tricky and may say more about the ranker's personal preferences than anything else.

About the grades: basically, they're modeled off of John Sickels', and they could mean any number of things. A Grade A prospect is a can't miss prospect with tremendous upside. Pedro Alvarez approaches that level for me but doesn't quite reach it because of his strike-zone issues, but I'd still rank him among the best prospects in all baseball. Ranking prospects when you get to the C+/C range is very tough, because those grades could a couple of things. Argenis Diaz, for example, gets a C for being very likely to make it to the majors but not having much upside once he gets there, while Trent Stevenson also gets one for being a complete lottery ticket--he has a small chance of reaching the majors but considerable upside if he does. Same grade, two different meanings.

The grades are provided not so much to judge the player as to provide a frame of reference. A system with a considerable number of players with grades of C+ or better generally has a lot of depth; that's the case with the Pirates right now. Many other systems in baseball would have more grades of B+ or higher, however.

This list does not include players who have spent significant time in the big leagues, such as Jeff Clement, Andrew McCutchen, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio or Charlie Morton.

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Altoona. Grade: A-. An easy choice for the top spot, despite Alvarez' early struggles at Lynchburg. Alvarez has mostly righted the ship after being promoted to Altoona, hitting for a much higher average without sacrificing any power. His strikeouts and defensive issues are still a concern, but I'm a lot more convinced than I was two months ago that he's going to hit 30 bombs a year in the majors.

2. Tony Sanchez, C, West Virginia. Grade: B+. This is, I admit, an aggressive ranking, but that has more to do with my skepticism about Tabata and Alderson than anything else. Still, Sanchez's performance at West Virginia so far has been promising, and although Sanchez lacks star power, he seems to be a good bet to reach the big leagues quickly and perform well once he gets there.

3. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis. Grade B+. Tabata had a decent year without putting to rest any of the questions about him--Can he hit for power? Can he keep his personal life in order? Tabata is still young and very promising, but he has a lot to work out.

4. Tim Alderson, SP, Altoona. Grade: B+. This is a good pitching prospect, but I have doubts about his ability to continue to strike out batters as he moves up the chain. If he doesn't get hurt--always an "if" with pitchers just a couple years out of high school--he's a good bet to post solid walk numbers in the majors, if nothing else.

5. Brad Lincoln, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: B. Lincoln has struggled a bit since his promotion to Class AAA, and it's worth keeping in mind that he's already 24. He'll probably make his Pirates debut next year, but judging from his minor league profile, he looks more like a mid-rotation starter than an emerging ace.

6. Robbie Grossman, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B. Grossman strikes out too much, but 19-year-olds who can hold their own in full-season ball don't grow on trees, and Grossman's .381 OBP bodes well for his future.

7. Rudy Owens, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: B. As with Alderson, this is a good pitching prospect. The numbers don't lie: Owens now has 101 strikeouts, 16 walks and a 1.55 ERA in 110 innings this year. But it will be interesting to see how Owens' stuff and flyball tendencies play at higher levels.

8. Starling Marte, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B-. Marte, who was hyped as a prospect even before he made it to the states, hasn't exactly quieted the buzz by posting a .333 average in his first 132 at bats for the Power.

9. Zach Von Rosenberg, SP. Grade: B-. Von Rosenberg is probably the highest-upside member of the Pirates' 2009 draft class. Obviously, though, he's a million miles from the majors, and it's unwise to put one's hopes in one basket where teenage pitching prospects are concerned.

10. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Altoona. Grade: C+. Hernandez has been a disappointment since arriving in the Nate McLouth trade, but at age 21, he still has time to develop some power and refine his on-base skills.

11. Jeff Locke, SP, Lynchburg. Grade C+. Another addition from the McLouth trade, Locke is still just 21 and is more interesting than his 5.23 ERA this year suggests. He gets a fair number of grounders and strikeouts, and has improved his walk rate since arriving from the Braves.

12. Daniel McCutchen, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: C+. McCutchen has had a solid season from Indianapolis, but at age 26, he's running out of time to separate himself from the Virgil Vasquezes of the world.

13. Brett Lorin, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Lorin has been lost in the shuffle somewhat because he was one of about a million young players acquired within a 48-hour period, but it's worth pointing out that he now has a 2.32 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 100.7 innings this year.

14. Colton Cain, SP. Grade: C+. Cain is another high-upside arm from the 2009 draft, paid a bonus of over $1 million. He hasn't yet pitched professionally.

15. Bryan Morris, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. I haven't the slightest idea what to make of Morris, but his season has been a complete bust. He's still young and still has a first-round pedigree, though, so it would be unwise to write him off completely.

16. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. D'Arnaud has had a serviceable first full season for an early-round draftee from a major college program. That might be faint praise, but at least it's praise. His game (strike zone control, the ability to play shortshop) should someday earn him a spot as a bench infielder, at the very least.

17. Quinton Miller, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Miller's stats at West Virginia haven't been so hot, but I'm not sure I'd worry much about those yet; he still has a great fastball, and he's young for the level.

18. Brooks Pounders, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Pounders, a 2009 second-round pick, earns a spot with a great debut for so far in rookie ball. As with Alderson and Owens, he's not supposed to have blazing stuff, so he could be tested as he moves up.

19. Trent Stevenson, SP. Grade: C. Another live-armed bonus baby from the 2009 draft, although Stevenson is probably even riskier than Von Rosenberg or Cain, since he may need to alter his mechanics a bit.

20. Quincy Latimore, OF, West Virginia. Grade: C. Latimore hasn't yet had a season in which he's really been dominant, but he's hit for a good average and excellent power at a young age this year. Strike-zone issues might be his achilles heel.

21. Josh Harrison, 2B, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Harrison is small, but he's posted an .825 OPS so far this year. He's a longshot, but he's Freddy Sanchez if absolutely everything breaks right for him.

22. Ronald Uviedo, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Uviedo pitched his way onto the Bucs' 40-man roster with a good performance at Hickory last year, and he's doing it again this year, this time as a starter. He should join Altoona's rotation in 2010.

23. Nathan Adcock, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. You can forget about that ugly ERA at High Desert, which is one of the toughest places for pitchers anywhere in the minor leagues. Instead, check out those 82 strikeouts in 77.3 innings last year in Class A, or his solid first two starts for the Hillcats. This guy is a prospect until he proves otherwise.

24. Jarek Cunningham, IF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Cunningham is out for the year, but don't forget about him. He had easily the strongest 2008 performance of anyone from that year's draft class, and he'll be back at full strength next year.

25. Exicardo Cayonez, OF, VSL. Grade: C. He's all the way down at the VSL, but as a 17-year-old bonus baby with a .396 OBP and bunches of doubles, he's got a shot.

26. Neil Walker, 3B, Indianapolis. Grade: C. 2004 first-round pick is having the same crap year he had last year. He has power and defensive ability, neither of which will do a bit of good unless he can hit for average or draw some walks.

27. Argenis Diaz, SS, Indianapolis. Grade: C. Sure, he can field, but can he hit? At all?

28. Michael Dubee, RP, Altoona. Grade: C. A reliever, yes, but one who has 73 strikeouts and 11 walks to go with a 1.87 ERA so far this year. He deserves more attention.

29. Rogelios Noris, OF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Mexican outfielder hit well in the VSL in 2008 and has posted a .980 OPS so far this year in the Gulf Coast League.

30. Victor Black, SP, State College. Grade: C. A top pick from the 2009 draft, Black throws hard and has a strikeout per inning so far for the Spikes.

Others worth watching: Evan Chambers, Zackry Dodson, Nate Baker, Diego Moreno, Ramon Cabrera, Nelson Pereira, Mitchell Fienemann, Jhonathan Ramos, Zachary Fuesser, Jonathan Barrios, Roberto Espinoza, Jorge Bishop, Calvin Anderson, Jordy Mercer, Hunter Strickland, Casey Erickson, Aaron Pribanic, Brian Friday, Jeff Sues, Tyler Herron, Eric Hacker, Danny Moskos, Benjamin Gonzalez. There are also several 2009 draftees still unsigned who would fit into this list, although not in the top 30.