SB Nation - Chris Carter

John Sickels Interview with Billy Beane

raygu — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:28:25 -0000

Be sure to head on over to www.minorleagueball.com to check out John Sickel's interview with A's GM Billy Beane....it's very good. Here is what Beane had to say about third base prospect Brett Wallace:

JOHN SICKELS
The other big bat in Triple-A is Brett Wallace. Can he stick at third base?

BILLY BEANE:
Well we don't know for sure yet, but we won't take him off third base until he proves he can't handle it. His bat has come very quickly, he was just a year out of college and hit well in Triple-A. The bat looks special to us. Sometimes with guys like that, the glove gets panned by scouts just because the bat has come so quickly and they are looking for something to criticize. Also, I think Brett's defense gets panned unfairly because of the way his body looks.

He also asks about Chris Carter, AFL MVP Grant Desme and some of their young pitching prospects.

Billy Beane Exclusive Athletics Nation Interview: Season End 2009 Part I

Tyler Bleszinski — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 14:00:46 -0000

The A's did make some strides forward in 2009 despite finishing with nearly an identical record the past three seasons. They have a good core of young players who appear primed to only get better, and despite the last week of stumbling baseball, the team was one of baseball's surprises in the second half.

With Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Wallace, Daric Barton, Rajai Davis and the rest of the team coming back with more experience, 2010 is looking up for us green and gold faithful. Billy Beane is exceptionally busy wrapping up the season and already starting to look ahead, so I appreciate him taking the time out to chat with me this past week. This is the first part of the interview. I will be running the second part first thing Tuesday morning. Enjoy.

Blez: When I talked to you in spring training it looked like you felt like this team could've gone either way. You were hesitant to say it was going to excel. You didn't seem to know what you were going to have.

Billy Beane: If you point to something right away, we had so many young and unproven starting pitchers in the rotation. You just didn't really know how they were going to react and it's hard to predict where you're going to go if you don't know where your pitching is. I think when we spoke it was right around the time when we were just becoming aware of some of the injury possibilities that ended up happening. The two most obvious were Duchscherer and Joey Devine. When you have so many rookie pitchers getting their first taste of the major leagues, it's very difficult to predict where you're going to go.

Blez: What would your assessment on 2009 be then? We're closing in on the final week of the season here.

Beane: It almost feels like two different seasons. I'm very pleased with the second half. I think we've played pretty well and we've surprised some people because we've played so well in particular after some of the bigger name players weren't here anymore. In particular the Holliday trade, and we've made other changes. But I think the most encouraging thing has been the way we've performed in the second half as well as the development of some of these players who I think are going to be here for a long time, which was first and foremost our goal this year. It's been the last couple of years that we've been trying to build that foundation of young talent that people can look forward to seeing for the next few years and creating a winning core for the foreseeable future. For the first time you really started to see that. You can look at some of the young players like Andrew Bailey who made the All Star team as a closer. Certainly Brett Anderson's performance and Trevor Cahill's improvement. Gio (Gonzalez) has made progress this year. Raj Davis, on the offensive side, has come on and shown himself to be a really good major league centerfielder. Ryan Sweeney as well as Kurt Suzuki's continued development and I know I'm going to leave people out. Cliff Pennington has performed very well in the second half. I think if you look around the diamond you'll see that these guys are going to be here for a while and they've proven over the second half that they can perform at the major league level. And as we continue to add guys from our minor league system, guys who are highly thought of, you can start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Blez: You mentioned people being surprised that the team picked up and became a better team when you ultimately traded away or got rid of some of the "name" guys like Holliday, Giambi and Cabrera. Some of those guys we all expected more from at the beginning of the year. Is there a point where you might've said, "Maybe instead of bringing in some of those guys, maybe I should've just started with the youth at the beginning of the year and perhaps they would've matured and gotten to that point?"

Beane: That's a good question. Personally I always like the idea of if you're trying to rebuild to just got full bore and do it. But there's also a balance as well. In fairness you have to understand a guy like Cliff Pennington probably benefitted from going back and starting the year in Triple-A. What we've seen this year even relative to last year is that he was much more ready to come up this year and contribute than last year. I don't think you could say that that would've been the case in April. But it's a fair question and certainly one that you think about. I do think there is something to be said about having some of those older guys in here so as not to put the pressure on those younger guys to perform. When we made some of these trades to make the commitment to the younger guys it was a different point in the season and I think it allowed them to relax and realize they were going to be able to play every day. They would realize they could make a mistake and still be in there. I'm not sure that that would've been the case had you started that way from the outset. You might've had a different mindset from the younger players. Keep in mind that some of the holdover guys are young too. Those players are different ones than they were in April. Even though we see Kurt Suzuki as the established guy, he's a guy that continues to improve as is Ryan Sweeney. I think having some of those veteran guys gave them the opportunity to continue some of that development. When the baton was handed off to them, they were more prepared then they were in April.

Blez: You were talking about some of those veteran guys you traded away. And obviously it hurt the team quite a bit that Matt Holliday didn't come close to his career numbers with the A's. There was speculation on AN, everything from he knew he was a short timer here in Oakland so he didn't care, to league adjustment, to the adjustment to not being at Coors Field. Why do you think he didn't come close to what he's doing now in St. Louis?

Beane: The first thing I can put to rest is that he didn't care because that was absolutely not the case. Matt was an absolute professional here. If anything he was probably guilty of putting too much pressure on himself than people know publicly. Matt had impeccable work habits and was a pro. There was probably a bit of an adjustment period. But keep in mind even right before he went to St. Louis, he was really starting to get going here.

Blez: His numbers definitely were going up before he was dealt.

Beane: Yeah you could see he was starting to feel more like himself and get it going. The fact that he took off when he went there was not a surprise. Certainly the lineup to hit in around Pujols, I think it became a perfect environment for him. I think had Matt stayed here he would've returned to his career numbers and I think he was headed that way before he left. I can tell you this. He was an absolute professional when he was here and any assertion that he didn't care is not true.

Blez: How do you find enough at bats for someone like Landon Powell who seems like he should get more regular playing time? Do you go into the offseason thinking about how you get more time for him despite the fact that Kurt Suzuki is a fantastic catcher, does a great job with the pitchers and is great offensively? Do you start to look at DH or a different position?

Beane: There's been times where Bob (Geren) has tried to do that. Early in the year he played a few games at first base and it's not something everyone can do immediately on an everyday basis. The other thing too is there were times that Landon was slowed down because he had nagging hamstring issues at different points during the season. Even though there are times when Bob wanted to get his bat in the lineup, Landon's body wouldn't allow him to. One of the things we're going to focus on with Landon is making sure he's as physically prepared as possibly to handle even more than he has. But we see it as a good problem to have. To be able to put in a catcher behind Kurt who has the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark but is also a good defensive catcher is a great luxury to have. But the fact is, and you alluded to this, Kurt Suzuki is one of the top catchers in the game. Not only that but he's very much become a leader on the team so he's going to get the bulk of time, yet we are aware of the amount of production Landon has given us in his brief amount of time. I think the goal is ultimately to get him more at bats, but for the time being, Kurt is going to get the bulk of them. Part of Landon's responsibility is to make sure he can handle more playing time than he has because that hasn't always been the case this year.

Blez: When someone like Rajai Davis has what looks like a "career year," how do you assess whether a reasonable projection for next year is more like what he's doing, or more like what he's done before? How does the team go about trying to figure this out?

Beane: In some sense you have to take it at face value. He was with Pittsburgh and then San Francisco and now us. He's never really been given a full blown opportunity to prove himself as an everyday player and now that he is putting up the numbers he is, the first question is, can he keep this up? But if you go back and look at what Raj did in the minor leagues, he was a good minor league hitter so it shouldn't come as a total shock. You're not talking about a guy who was a .220 hitter in the minor leagues. He was a good player when he played. Right now we just see it as a guy who has hit well in the minors who has finally been given the opportunity and is carrying it forward. We're going to enjoy it and go with it and try not to overthink. Anyone who has seen Raj with us over the last year and three quarters, when he's played, he's played well. He's one of the unique major league players who continues to just get better. We're going to take it at face value and he's done enough to show that he's a good enough player to play every day at center field. He's such a weapon on the base paths and he gives you such a unique dynamic. If you look at the stolen bases he's had without even having a full season, it isn't out of the question that next year you could see stealing 65-70 bases.

Blez: You reference stolen bases and obviously it's something that has changed quite a bit about the A's. I think you're in the top three in stolen bases and Raj is one of the league leaders in that number and he really makes the overall team number larger. Did you make a decision to be more aggressive on the base paths because of the lack of power? Did you think, we've got to get some offense some way?

Beane: I really think it's Bob (Geren) trying to take the personnel he has and trying to do the best he can with it. He's playing to the strengths. We don't have a lot of power and it's certainly something in order to be a more complete offensive team it's something we need to get. In a perfect world you have both guys who can steal bases and guys who can hit it out of the ballpark. As much as anything, it's Bob really trying to take advantage of what he has. Early in the year we were having trouble scoring runs and he wanted to create a mindset of being aggressive and when you have a guy like Raj doing it the way he's doing it, it has a tendency of rubbing off on everybody. There's a sense of confidence guys have when they get on the bases and they look to steal bases. They're looking for that steal sign. It also has a carryover effect with the rest of the base running. We've been by and large a very good baserunning team and it was just a matter of Bob looking at his personnel and he thought that this is what we're going to have to do to scrape some runs out. The second half we've actually swung the bats really well also and if you combine that with the aggressive baserunning, that's why you're seeing a lot higher run totals. The one thing it really has done is just given the guys a more aggressive mindset. They realize they're not going to win a whole lot of ballgames by getting into home run hitting contests. I give a lot of credit to Bob and his staff as they've really scratched and clawed their way through nine innings of these games.

Blez: Two questions. Do you believe in that the stolen bases must be a 75 percent success rate or higher or it's counterproductive and second of all, do you believe that someone like Rajai Davis actually puts additional pressure on the pitcher? The assumption is that the opposition pitcher somehow loses that concentration because they're so worried about the baserunner stealing.

Beane: There is no question that if a guy like Raj gets on base, everyone is aware that he is on base and there is going to be some adjustments to how quickly the pitcher might deliver the pitch and the catcher might call for a different pitch than he otherwise would. So the game calling might change as well. I'm sure you could quantify it. I'm not aware of exactly how to, but you can certainly tell from a game situation how teams react differently if you're willing to steal a base so I do think it does have an impact. The Angels have certainly done that for years and I think it's had an impact on how teams play them. It creates a tense situation for not just pitchers and catchers but defenders because they have to come up with a perfect play. As far as the rate, there is certainly a point where if you're constantly running and constantly getting thrown out it's definitely having an adverse impact and the demarcation line certainly seems to be around that 70 percent area. You also have to keep in mind that it doesn't take into account some of the things teams are doing to adjust to a team that runs a lot.

Blez: Do you think that the stolen base has become a bit of an unvalued commodity in baseball considering how few there are now, especially in the American League, compared to years past?

Beane: What I think I've noticed more than anything is that a lot of the teams that are running have sophisticated coaching staffs and sophisticated ways to apply the running game, and I might not be accurate and this is just my impression, but those teams seem to be successful more often. The percentage at which they are stealing bases just seems to be higher.

Blez: The Rays are a good example from last year.

Beane: The Red Sox, who historically haven't been a running team the last few years, specifically with (Jacoby) Ellsbury at the top of their lineup. Yet they also seem to steal at a very high rate too. I think everyone is just trying to take advantage by making a percentage play as well. That's why the success rate seems higher. It just seems very much a part of the strategy as opposed to just indiscriminate running for the sake of doing it.

Blez: We talked about Raj and his career year. This is similar to that. Does Daric Barton seem like he's finally arrived or do you need to see more than a month of red-hot hitting, especially given that he's done that before?

Beane: I knew I'd forget somebody earlier and Daric has, certainly this last month, been swinging the bat the way we knew he could and very similarly to the first month he came to the big leagues a couple of years ago. One thing to keep in mind with Daric is that he's still extremely young. He came up at an age when many kids are still in college. He needs to be given the benefit of time and we need to do that. Through no fault of his own, he's had a few nicks here and there that have kind of interrupted his development. The biggest thing is this guy has been a very, very good minor league hitter and at times has shown that he can be a very good major league hitter. With young players, you just can't expect they're always going to be Andrew Bailey where they step on a mound and they never look back. Daric's development path is not unlike a lot of successful major leaguers where he shows you something and maybe he goes through some difficult times. That just means we have to be patient and hope that the guy that you saw in the minor leagues ultimately becomes that guy at the major leagues. This last month Daric has made some huge strides and we're not just excited about next year, but the next five or six years. The other thing you can't forget about Daric is how good a defender he has become. This is a converted catcher in the minor leagues. He's become a very good defensive first baseman, not just with the glove, but when needed, he throws very well from that position too. We're excited and it's great to see. We've always had high hopes for Daric particularly after that first month at the big leagues. He's one of the reasons we've played so well.

Blez: Staying with the first baseman theme, you have Barton, Doolittle and Carter as potential first basemen, but Doolittle and Carter also have some OF experience. What does the first base depth chart look like right now, and which of the players might be more likely to end up elsewhere on the field?

Beane: It's a question we may face and face very soon. We played Chris Carter a little in the outfield in Double-A. He's a good athlete. In a perfect world, all those guys become very good major league hitters and you have to find a spot for them. It potentially is something we're going to face. We're going to have to make a decision and it will be made on production first and foremost. Secondly, as you mentioned, it might be based on somebody's ability to play another position. In Chris' case we started to play him some in the outfield and I've even talked to his agent as he's going to play winter ball in Mexico and we've talked about getting him out there as much as possible because we think he's a good enough athlete to do it. We were doing the same with Doolittle in Triple A this year before he had the knee issue. It is definitely something as we go into the offseason and spring training we're going to have to prepare for.

Blez: Would the power potential for the position have a big deciding difference in who you play at first base? It's obviously still a concern with Daric because he hasn't put up much in terms of power numbers, but Carter has and Doolittle has some pop as well. Or do you maybe weigh the defense first?

Beane: Being a regular major league baseball player, the player brings a lot of elements: it's his baserunning, it's his fielding, it's his power, it's his ability to hit for average and it's when you add those things together usually one player is going to be better than the other even if he's deficient in one area because he may do one thing very well. It's not something we have to answer yet and it's definitely getting closer. We think all these guys are major league players, it's just about finding a spot for them.

Blez: What will most determine the timeline for when Chris Carter is called up to Oakland? Could he win a job out of spring training if he looks ready?

Beane: It's probably a little early to answer that. The only thing I'll say is that we wanted to give Chris some time at Triple-A and give him some confidence going into next year thinking he's seen the highest level of the minors and he could perform there. I think he did a great job in the few weeks he was there. It's just too early to answer that. I don't like creating definites at this point when you don't need to. A player usually decides when he's ready for the major leagues by performing at the highest level and at that point there's nowhere for him to go but up. Some of these guys are getting close to that.

Blez: Based on what you have seen so far, what's the current thinking on Brett Wallace's chances of being a major league every day third baseman?

Beane: We're going to leave Brett over there. He's played one full season, a total of a season and a half of professional baseball as he's moved very, very quickly because of his bat. We're going to give him the benefit of some time over there defensively and particularly given the long-term need we're going to have at that position, it would behoove us to give him every opportunity to give him the development time defensively to see if he can play the position because it would definitely be a great fit if he can play third base in the big leagues based on the personnel we have here and have coming up. It would be absolutely perfect. Especially given that Chavy (Eric Chavez) is coming into the last year of his contract, the chance that Brett with some further refining would be a very nice fit for us there long term. I guess the question is, is it still a work in progress? And we're going to give him every opportunity to prove he can play that position.

Blez: What do you do about third base, at least short term? I'm not even sure where Eric Chavez stands at this point or if he's a part of the conversation. I've read reports that he could do permanent damage to himself if he plays again. Where does Eric stand right now?

Beane: From a rehab standpoint, he's doing very well. The good thing about him having surgery when he did is that when we get into the offseason, he should have as normal an offseason as any other player. He should be able to start resuming normal baseball activities when everyone else starts. The time that he's had has been good. I think we have to be realistic including Eric because he's faced a number of surgeries and he's been more disappointed than anyone that he hasn't been able to come back completely. We have to be realistic on him coming back and have some short-term preparation as it applies to that position going into next year. I also think that Eric, given his talent level, deserves the respect and the opportunity to get healthy and given the opportunity to get back to doing what he does best. In short, we're going to try to prepare for both sides of the equation.

Blez: Where does Travis Buck stand with the team now as he seems to be caught in an almost purgatory state now between Triple-A and being up with the team but not really seeing much regular playing time? Is it the type of thing where he needs to get in there for a while to get his confidence back as he's seemed to have hit well in Triple-A?

Beane: The one thing about major league baseball is that it's pretty Darwinian. If you hit, you're going to play. Raj is probably the best example of that. When Raj got a chance to play he hit. Since he's been playing, he's looked around saying I'm not going to let anyone else play because I know I have to perform here in order to keep myself in the lineup. Most recently, Ryan Sweeney has done the same thing. With all players, not just Travis, it's ultimately going to be based on performance. Travis has had a couple of years in a row, unfortunately, where he's had concussions that haven't enabled him to even play regularly at Triple A. He's missed some time there because of these injuries. We still think very highly of Travis for the same reasons that most people did when he first came up. We think he's got the talent to be a good major league player. At this point it's when he's given the chance he has to take advantage of it and ultimately hopefully avoiding some of those injuries he's had the last couple of years. But we still think very highly of him and one of the best things about Travis is that when he first came up one of the areas we wanted him to work on was his defense and that was addressed to him and he did. He's improved significantly in the outfield and it was an area of weakness when he first came up. Ultimately when he gets to this level it will be based on performance.

Coming tomorrow: Beane delves into the pitching, the status of the injured A's pitchers and how he sees 2010 shaping up.

Minor League Update: Season's End

grover — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:00:29 -0000

The 2009 minor league season is over and congratulations are due to the Midland RockHounds, who won the Texas League crown by defeating the NW Arkansas Naturals 3 games to 1. The Sacramento River Cats were not so fortunate, getting swept by the Memphis Redbirds in 3 games. All in all it was a fairly successful year for the farm system, as several prospects that were under a lot of scrutiny had good seasons while 3 of the 4 full season teams posted winning records. (Heck, even the Stockton Ports managed to rebound in the 2nd half and go 36-34 to finish with a 61-79 overall record.)

I plan on doing a full summary of the farm system a little later on. For today I’m going to update what key players did in the play-offs. Minorleaguesplits.com is the only website that I know of that keeps track of play-off performance as part of the yearly tally but even they only show the numbers as part of the whole body of work. So if you ever wonder why the numbers from their website are different from what you will see at MiLB.com it’s on account of the play-off performance. The season totals listed below include the play-off numbers.

Chris Carter

AAA Postseason: 8-27, 1 D, 4 HR, 4 BB, 8 K (296/387/778)

AA-AAA Total: 567 AB, 44 D, 2 T, 32 HR, 89 BB, 137 K (330/423/584) .389 BABIP

MLE: 597 AB, 34 D, 1T, 25 HR, 62 BB, 151 K (258/330/444) .306 BABIP

Carter was the breakout performer in the organization and the A’s have tried him in the outfield in addition to 1B in an effort to find somewhere, anywhere to play his bat. Oakland seems very eager to see what Carter can do; as they discussed adding him to the 40 man roster after the River Cats’ season ended so he could get a cup of coffee with the A’s. Instead they’ve secured a spot for him in the Mexican Pacific League to play Winter Ball. For those who aren’t familiar with the MPL the quality of the competition is generally considered to be AAA caliber. You’ll see a lot of familiar names in the box scores and the A’s hope Carter will be able to handle the steady diet of quality breaking stuff he’s likely to see. If Carter has a strong Winter Ball season expect the A’s to give him a shot at a job on the 2010 Opening Day roster during Spring Training.

Brett Wallace

AAA Postseason: 8-27, 1 T, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3K (296/345/593)

AA-AAA Total: 550 AB, 26 D, 1 T, 21 HR, 47 BB, 115 K (293/365/458) .338 BABIP

MLE: 568 AB, 21 D, 1 T, 16 HR, 34 BB, 125 K (250/305/375) .295 BABIP

TotalZone gives Wallace an average defensive score at 3B but as you can see, his strike zone judgment needs a bit more improvement and his power numbers could tick up some as well. I haven’t seen anything that says Wallace will play Winter Ball, but my guess is he’ll spend time at the A’s facility in Arizona working on his defense and basically getting to know the folks in the organization. He won’t be a part of Instructs per se, but I imagine he’ll get some time in. The A’s don’t appear to be as aggressive about promoting Wallace as they do Carter but I’m sure that could change depending on what moves the A’s make in the offseason. If Wallace ends up back in Sacramento to start next season, rest assured his time there will be contingent on how long it takes for the A’s medical staff to begin their post-mortem on Eric Chavez.

Adrian Cardenas

AAA Postseason: 10-27, 3 D, 4 BB, 4K (370/452/481)

AA-AAA Total: 530 AB, 44 D, 4 T, 4 HR, 57 BB, 75 K (304/369/425) .348 BABIP

MLE: 548 AB, 36 D, 2 T, 3 HR, 40 BB, 82 K (246/295/336) .285 BABIP

I think Cardenas could easily surpass his MLE next season; the guy seems to be a natural born hitter. The A’s rave about his hitting ability and think 2B is the best fit for him at this time. Given Ellis’ track record for not staying healthy there’s a good chance we’ll see Cardenas in the Green & Gold at some point next season. The 52 extra-base hits are an encouraging sign as heading into the 2009 season his power was heavy on the potential and very little on the applied side of things.

Tyson Ross

AA Postseason: 12.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 19 K (1.49 ERA)

A-AA Total: 155.2 IP, 125 H, 64 ER, 56 BB, 132 K (3.71 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

Ross was absolutely dominant in the postseason for the RockHounds and he probably has the best stuff of any SP currently pitching in the A’s farm system. (Note the phrasing before you comment!) Consistency is an issue for Ross, but a year from now the A’s might be trying to find room for his power arm.

And once again, thank you for your support.

Minor League Update: 9-15-2009 A Picture's Worth a Thousand Words... I didn't have that much to say

grover — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:14:38 -0000

First, the really cool news.

The Sacramento River Cats and the Midland RockHounds have both advanced to the next round of their respective play-offs. The River Cats are going for their 3rd consecutive PCL crown and what’s great about this season’s squad is that the current roster includes a fair number of high end prospects. Exposing them to the pressures of play-off baseball (even if it’s the minor leagues) can only help their development as ballplayers. The A’s have always believed that winning in the minors is important; as it helps the individual players unite as a team to strive towards a common goal.

Now if only we could get the organization to start winning in Oakland again… that would be a good thing. (Mean? Probably. Honest? Brutally.)

And how well are these wonder prospects doing in a play-off environment? I’ll tell you after the jump… so come on over!

You know you want to.

AAA

Henry Rodriguez: 1.1 IP 0 H 4 BB 2 K 3 ER

Sam Demel: 1.2 IP 3 H 0 BB 3 K 0 ER

Chris Carter: 5-17 4 HR 2 BB 5 K

Adrian Cardenas: 7-15 2 D 3 BB 2 K

Brett Wallace: 5-17 1 T 2 HR 2 BB 1 K

Graham Godfrey: 6.2 IP 1 H 3 BB 5 K 0 ER

Tyson Ross: 6.1 IP 4 H 2 BB 8 K 2 ER

Mickey Storey: 4.2 IP 3 H 0 BB 5 K 0 ER

Jemile Weeks: 4-13 1 HR 2 BB 2 K

Josh Donaldson: 3-16 1 D 2 HR 1 BB 5 K

Matt Spencer: 7-15 2 HR 2 BB 1 K

Corey Brown: 1-8 5 K

Shane Peterson: 3-15 1 D 1 BB 4 K

The numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Chris Carter… he hits ball really far. Ross had maybe his best start in AA and Mickey Storey has been nothing short of sensational this year, pitching for Kane County, Stockton, Midland and Sacramento. He has, amazingly enough, given up only 8 walks while striking out 71 in 51.2 IP.

The A’s are sending/inviting 36 players to Instructs this fall. I’m not going to write up the whole list but the notable names include 2009 draftees Ian Krol, Paul (Haven’t given up a run in the first 25 games of my pro career) Smyth, Josh Leyland, Max Stassi, Conner Crumbliss, Grant Green, Stephen Parker and Myrio Richard. Third rounder Justin Marks might join halfway through if he gets over a groin injury. Other folks of interest include Ben Hornbeck, Brett Hunter, Fautino de los Santos, Anthony Capra, Michael Ynoa, Nino Leyja, Jeremy Barfield, Rubin Rosario and Rashun Dixon.

The Oakland contingent to the AFL has been decided, health permitting. Jemile Weeks, Corey Brown, Grant Desme, Clayton Mortensen, James Simmons, Justin Friend and Sam Demel get to be Desert Dogs this year.

There’s a rumor that the A’s might call up Brett Wallace and Chris Carter after Sacramento’s season ends, but that would mean first putting them on the 40 man roster. It would be a dick move but I could see the A’s releasing Nomar and placing Chris Denorfia on waivers to make room for Carter and Wallace. I’m not particularly attached to Garciaparra but firing the guy with 2 weeks left in the season would be a classless move.

In a recent interview with Scout.com A’s Director of Player Development Keith Lieppman said that the A’s consider 2B to be the best place for Cardenas. He sees Carter at 1B long term and counts Wallace strictly as a 3B. It is what it is, but the A’s seem to be fast tracking Jemile Weeks; if Cardenas is destined for 2B then ultimately wither Weeks? Keep an eye out during the AFL to see if Weeks plays some OF.

And thank you for your support.

Minor League Update, September 1st

grover — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:39:04 -0000

My timing is impeccable.

The morning after the A’s score 8 runs and Chris Carter hits 3 homeruns for the River Cats I come to AN to post a story about how underwhelming the Oakland offense has been and how we can’t expect to see any help from the farm system until July of 2010.

Gosh how I love feeling timely and relevant.

Today’s Minor League Update is my attempt to gauge when the Oakland A’s offense can expect to receive reinforcements from internal sources, i.e. the farm system. My estimates are meant to be conservative, as I don’t want to see players bounced back and forth between Oakland and Sacramento. When I post a player’s ETA it’s meant to be a permanent arrival… until Billy Beane trades him, of course.

Chris Carter: LF; ETA: July, 2010

The A’s have said time and again that once a player has success at AA the possibility of him being called up increases dramatically. The reality with our favorite baseball organization has traditionally been much more conservative, as the A’s under Beane almost never called up a player until he’d seen a fair amount of time in AAA. Then this season happened and Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, the top pitching prospects in the system, end up on the Opening Day roster with no more than 2 months experience above High-A ball! So we should expect to see the top hitting prospect in next year’s Opening Day line-up… right?

Not so fast. Carter’s AA line of 337/435/576 is oh so pretty, but he’s shown a tendency over the past couple seasons to start slowly. In 2008 he didn’t start hitting until June and this season the power didn’t start flowing until the second half of May, not hitting his 4th home run until May 18. Carter hasn’t exactly taken AAA by storm (OK, clouds were building last night) and I think he’s going to need some time to make a few more adjustments before making the Show. Give him a couple months next year to get his feet under him in AAA and let him make his big league debut when he’s going full tilt.

Brett Wallace: 1B; ETA: June 2010

Brett Wallace is one of the best hitting prospects in the minor leagues, but he’s barely a year out of college and his AAA line of 295/344/444 with 17 doubles and 13 home runs doesn’t exactly scream DOMINATOR. So sure, the A’s could rush him and start him in the Oakland next Opening Day… then probably have to send him down to Sac by early May so he can get his swing figured out. Let’s be proactive here and skip the demotion! I say give him 6 weeks to beat the snot out of AAA pitching and call him up when the rest of the PCL is willing to buy his bus ticket just to get him out of the league.

Adrian Cardenas: 3B; ETA: August 2010

The toughest player for me to guestimate, in large part because his arrival time is at least partly tied to the health (or lack thereof) of Eric Chavez. If Chavez collapses early in 2010 then Wallace will (most likely) get first crack at playing 3B. But if a miracle occurs and we actually see Chavez play again, then Cardenas (the most logical long term successor in the A’s system, even if the A’s themselves seem to be fighting that reality with every freakin’ breath) probably doesn’t see the Show until September, 2010. However, when betting on Eric’s health the smart money is always on the DL, so I’m bumping up Cardenas’ arrival date to August of next year. The only thing that worries me about Cardenas is the lack of power he’s shown thus far, but he’s young and has shown a knack for hitting so the power could still come.

Corey Brown: OF, ETA: September 2010

Call it woman’s intuition or maybe my furry blue coat has fried my brain, but I can see Mr. Brown seeing the bright lights of Oakland a year from today. It could happen even sooner if he has a wildly successful Arizona Fall League stint, segueing into a brilliant AAA debut but his strike out issues and missing half of the 2009 season begs for caution.

Corey Brown has the bat and the defensive chops to handle CF in the Show and who knows how long Rajai Davis can keep this going, but Brown has got to stay healthy and take advantage of his opportunities when they appear.

Others of note: Josh Donaldson does not have the skills to be a starting big league Catcher. His arm is strong but tends to be a bit scatter shot and he allows too many Passed Balls. He does show some solid hitting skills and might have enough versatility to play on the infield corners, making him a valuable bench asset down the line. The A’s seem to be fast tracking Jemile Weeks but he won’t see Oakland until the A’s are unicorn free. Weeks will most likely start next season in AA but I expect the A’s to look for reason to promote him by June. Sean Doolittle is still recovering from his knee injury and the A’s want to see him play Winter Ball. But Wallace’s arrival and Carter’s development pretty much make it RF or bust for Doolittle and he missed a golden opportunity to get his foot in the door this season.

That’s it. And thank you for your support.

(I need a catchier closing line.)

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

Monday's Minor League Report: Is It Moving Day Yet?

grover — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 06:45:08 -0000

The short season leagues begin in the coming week and that will probably lead to some roster shuffling among the full season affiliates. This week I've decided to try my hand at anticipating some of those moves. Its not just about identifying the guys who are performing well at a lower level, I need to make sure there's room for them in their new digs.

Oh, before I forget, Mark Ellis has begun his re-hab assignment tonight with the Stockton Ports. He's playing 2B, with Jemile Weeks serving as the DH. (Update: Ellis went 0-2 with a BB.)

I guess I should start with the obvious names... last word is the A's expect Rashun Dixon and Nino Leyja to play for the Vancouver Canadians when the NWL starts on June 20. Fautino de los Santos had a minor slow down in his recovery from 2008 TJ surgery, nothing to be alarmed about but it will delay him getting into games until July. No news seems to be good news regarding Inoa and his elbow; he probably won't see the Arizona Rookie League until mid-July at the earliest. The A's haven't signed any of their 2009 draft class.

I don't have any info on who's doing well in extended Spring Training, so I can't really predict who might be headed to Kane County if and when some space opens up. But I do have a good idea about who might be making the jump from Kane County to Stockton.

The Stockton Ports are currently carrying 23 active players on their roster, plus a re-habbing Mark Ellis. With only 10 position players on the team, it makes sense that Grant Desme and Dusty Coleman head west to seek their fame and fortune. Desme was Oakland's 2nd round pick back in 2007 out of Cal Poly but he's been hurt since before the A's drafted him. His numbers aren't superlative, and his 18/75 BB/K rate in 235 at bats is downright worrisome but the A's need to be aggressive in his promotions to try and get him caught up. He played mostly CF for the Cougars but has the arm for RF, which is probably where he'll see most of his time in Stockton.

I'm probably being too aggressive with the call on Coleman, but I have this hunch that Jemile Weeks is east bound and down before too long and the Ports would need another middle infielder. The safe play might be to demote Larry Cobb from AAA back to High-A, but I'd prefer to see upward movement in the prospect ranks whenever possible. If/when Weeks does leave for Midland I could see the organization move current Ports SS Michael Richard to the right side of the infield, making room for the top SS prospect currently signed and in the A's system.

Desme and Coleman aren't the only two that I see heading out to Stockton. Kenny Smalley and Mickey Storey have been down right dominant in the Cougars' rotation and bullpen, respectively. The Ports need all kind of help, and an infusion of talent from the mid-west would be exactly what the doctor ordered. Unfortunately, adding all four players would require someone on the Ports roster (because Weeks is headed to Midland) to be waived or demoted. My guess is Nick Walters would be saying good-bye.

Midland also has 23 actives on the roster and with Adrian Cardenas seeing time at 3B they're forced to rely on Michael Affronti to man 2B when Cardenas is busy.

Who?

Michael Affronti.

Let me be the first to acknowledge that Mr. Affronti is a much better baseball player than I am, but he's not much of a prospect.

So if Weeks is moving to Midland, does that mean Cardenas is headed back to Sacramento? Doubtful, I think. It makes more sense (to me, anyways) to keep Cardenas in a comfortable hitting environment while he adjusts to the defensive demands of 3B. Chris Carter might get a promotion to AAA, but as of now it strikes me as a coin flip chance. The 296/397/500 certainly supports a promotion but dropping from 39 HR to 9 HR by mid-June has got to be a little worrisome to management. It is obvious that Carter has made some adjustments to his approach this season; do the A's ask him to make another change and go for more power? And if they do that shouldn't they leave him in AA, in a league he already knows to help better another transition? Of course, getting a (presumably) successful half season in AAA would go a long way in determining if Carter could be ready for Oakland come next season.

So I'm actually going to flip a coin to make this call... Heads he stays in AA, Tails he gets promoted...

Tails it is! Carter's headed for Sac.

Statistical Prospect Evaluation Primer: Part 2: Hitters

The Cheat — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:25:28 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Josh Fields displayed a number of warning signs during his development.

Browse more photos »

Part 2 of series. You can read part 1 here.

Hitters

The first thing I look at when evaluating a hitter is obviously his triple slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG), but I don't spend too much time dwelling on them. I apply the afformentioned context to the numbers and move on. There are better indicators of future major league success than a sky-high OPS, which can mask other underlying problems.

Strike Zone Control

There is nothing that can derail a prospect's ascent to the major leagues faster than poor strike zone control. Oakland has famously enforced a 10% walk rate rule for prospect advancement. A prospect must walk in approximately 10% of his plate appearances before they'll advance him a level. I don't think you should stick to such a hard-and-fast rule when evaluating a prospect -- there are always exceptions to the rule. Can you imagine leaving Alexei Ramirez or Vlad Guerrero behind because they didn't walk enough? -- but I do have a few marks I look for.

For the hitter portion of this project, I'm going to focus on Josh Fields.

Contact rate -- Fields has struck out in almost 27% of his AAA plate appearances, and not surprisingly over 31% of his major league PAs. His strikeout rate is simply too high to maintain a high average at the major league level, as we've witnessed first-hand with his inability to hit the average major league fastball. I'd argue that anything over 15% is entering the danger zone.

Walk rate -- Luckily, Fields has shown a a steady progression in his ability to draw walks (until his lost season last year). He went from drawing a walk in under 10% of his PAs in AA in '05 to over 15% in his brief repeat of AAA in '07. You can't walk your way to the majors though, and you need to weigh both K and BB rates when evaluating a prospect.

K/BB ratio -- Number 3 behind age and triple slash line on the list of first things I look at when scanning a hitting prospect's stats is K/BB ratio. It's arguably the most important measure of a prospect's development and future major league viability.

While a high K-rate or low BB-rate are troubling signs, they're not necessarily a kiss of death for a prospect. There should be a sliding scale for the K-rate or BB-rate you find acceptable in a prospect based on his other attributes. You expect power guys to strike out more, but you also want them to offset that low average potential with an increase in walk-rate. K/BB ratio helps put that in perspective.

Fields displayed troubling K/BB marks (over 4:1) in his first season of pro ball, but improved each year in the system. He posted a 2.6:1 mark in his first taste of AA, and 2.5:1 mark in his first full-season of AAA. He got his K/BB ratio under 2:1 in his first 200 at-bats before his call-up in '07, which, not coincidentaly, is exactly the point when I finally started to become a believer in Fields.

The 2:1 ratio as about as high as I'd accept from a top prospect, someone who you'd expect league-averagish production from in an eventual full-time role. Elite prospects, future stars, "can't-miss" guys should have a K/BB ratio closer to 1:1. Now, Chris Getz has a K:BB ratio near 1:1, but that doesn't mean he's an elite prospect. He lacks the power to put him in that category. In fact, I expect prospects who lack power to be around the magic 1:1 ratio. They can't survive at the major league level if they don't put the ball in play at a high rate, and are able to fight off pitches to extend at-bats and coax more than a few walks.

Power Potential

ISO -- ISO or isolated power is simply slugging percentage minus batting average. I like to look at ISO instead of SLG because it distills a prospect's power potential to a single number, uninfluenced by batting average. The minor league leaders last year (some guy named Chris Carter) had a mark over .300, but you'll rarely find someone posting such a high mark in the major leagues.

Doubles and Extra-base hits -- Power is often the last tool to fully develop, and doubles can be a leading indicator of future homerun power. Carlos Quentin, for instance, hit 55 homeruns in the minors, but nearly doubled that amount with 103 doubles almost exclusively in hitter-friendly parks. His 40 homer breakout last year was surprising, but not entirely unexpected given his minor league track record.

In lieu of doubles, I often like to look at extra-base hits and extra-base hit percentage, the number of extra-base hits divided by total hits. Brandon Allen had an XBH% of 42% in '07 and an amazing 51% last year. He has power potential that can match up with the game's elite prospects. An XBH% of 30% is good, but I like to use XBH% more as a tool to tell me what type of power a player has, and to gauge year-to-year progression, rather than as a measure of future major league viability.

As for Fields, he posted a XBH% of 35.8% in his first full season (AA), and upped it to 39% in his '06 minor league breakout which featured 36 non-HR XBH versus 19 homers, a sign of a more HR power in the future. His XBH% peaked at 41% in the two months before his call-up in '07.

Fluke Check

BABIP -- Batting Average on Balls In Play, simply a player's batting average when they don't strike out or hit a homerun, is a good check to see if a player's triple slash line is repeatable in the majors. I'm sure most of you are familiar with BABIP, which averages very close to .300 in the major leagues. It's not as reliable in minor leagues for a number of reasons, but it still has value as a fluke check.

For instance, in Fields breakout year, his first full-season in Charlotte, he hit .305/.379/.515. Breakout year, future high average, plus-power star, right?

Wrong. Fields had a completely unsustainable .395 BABIP that season. While your line-drive hitting top prospects, the guys who hit the ball hard much more consistently than your average minor leaguer, often have BABIPs well above .300, .395 is well outside the bounds of sustainability at the major league level.

Conclusion

You can easily remember these guidelines by distilling them into two questions: Does he make enough contact? and What happens when he makes contact?

What can we expect from Fields, given his minor league stats? First, I think we have to discount last season, when Fields pouted having not made the major league team, then struggled while experiencing a myriad of leg issues, one of which required surgery this past off-season. Statistically, for evaluation purposes, we should probably think of Fields as the player who got called up in June of '07 to replace an injured Joe Crede.

I wish Fields had a complete second season at AAA, then we could be sure that he really had made progress in his walk rate. Nevertheless, Fields figures to be a low-average slugger, who strikes out a ton, but hopefully will be able to post an average OBP thanks to a good batting eye. He's shown an ability to adjust and improve at every level, and he may be in the process of taking that next step at the major league level, shortening up his swing just enough -- it's still big -- to make more contact and raise that average.

Resources

FirstInning.com -- Has BB%, K%, ISO and BABIP
Baseball-Reference -- full minor league stats

Up Next: Pitchers

MLB Rumors: Jason Giambi And Pat Burrell

faketeams — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 20:00:06 -0000

Buster Olney hits upon quite a few free agent rumors in his behind-the-wall Sunday column. Amongst the more interesting tidbits is his speculation that the Oakland A's will sign DH Jason Giambi and the Tampa Bay Rays will sign OF/DH Pat Burrell and reports that pitcher Ben Sheets medical records have team concerned with his shoulder and not the forearm that sidelined him at the end of 2008.

Of the two speculative signings, I can't see too much wrong with either assuming the contract length is minimal for Giambi and understandable given Burrell will be filling the DH role for the length of the deal unless the Rays intend to move Carl Crawford to right field. In Oakland, a multi-year contract will have Giambi blocking one of the few proven power prospects in the minor leagues right now - 1B/3B/OF/DH Chris Carter. Nevermind leaving the A's with nowhere to go with Eric Chavez if his multiple surgeries make 3B too challenging for him to do anything but DH over the last two years of his contract.

In Tampa, I don't have as many concerns about a Pat Burrell deal. The team doesn't have any hot power hitting prospects who would be blocked at DH or in the outfield over the next two seasons. According to John Sickels, the Rays don't possess any 1B/DH types in their Top 20, and the top OFers either missed a full season in A-ball (Desmond Jennings) or are 25-years-old without the power game to DH (Fernando Perez) regularly.

I like both Jennings in three seasons and Perez this season as a major sleeper in AL-only formats, but neither is threatened by Patt Burrell over the next two seasons.

Poll

Which is the better signing?

Jason Giambi by the Oakland A's

21 votes

Pat Burrell by the Tampa Bay Rays

65 votes

Neither. Just because something is cheap doesn't make it a good value. Have you seen the price of Citigroup?

19 votes

105 votes | Poll has closed