SB Nation - Alex Hinshaw

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Know Your Foe: Rockies face '07 Rocktober victims in season's first week

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 15:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Brandon Webb will be the first to take on the new-look Rockies line-up.

Browse more photos »

The regular season has arrived, and that means new things from Know Your Foe. I'll still profile what you need to know in the NL West, but this space will now also be used to look forward at who the Rockies will face in the upcoming week.

The Rockies epic Rocktober run in 2007 was truly reminiscent of a classic sports movie. If a writer was charged with the task of writing a sequel, an ideal start to the 2008 script would have been back-to-back series against the very teams the Rockies shockingly swept out of the playoffs on the way to the World Series.

The schedule-makers failed to provide that sequel last year, but the Rockies do open against Arizona and Philadelphia this season.

Arizona (82-80, no playoffs)

Monday-Wednesday : 3-game series at Arizona

After reaching the NLCS in 2007, the Diamondbacks failed to make the playoffs after fading to a disappointing 82-80 finish in 2008. Arizona is anchored by a strong rotation and hopes of success hinge on the growth of their young line-up.

However, if Spring Training is any indication, "success" won't be a word associated with the Diamondbacks this year. Our desert-dwelling division-rivals stumbled to MLB's worst Spring Training record at 11-23.

Probable Pitchers:

The marquee match-up of the series will no doubt be the earthworm genocide that will unfold this afternoon.

Monday, April 6:	Aaron Cook (2-2, 3.25)	vs.	Brandon Webb (1-2, 5.82)
Thursday, April 7:	Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 7.32)	vs.	Dan Haren (2-2, 4.40)
Wednesday, April 8:	Franklin Morales (3-3, 4.50)	vs.	Doug Davis (0-1, 6.23)

Lineup:

Nothing has changed in the past week. The Diamondbacks' starting lineup is worth about 4.924 runs. It's a solid lineup with some significant upside. The Rockies have had trouble handling Chad Tracy and Justin Upton in the past. Note that Bob Melvin altering the Opening Day lineup, replacing Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton with Eric Byrnes and Tony Clark just because Aaron Cook scares Melvin so much.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Felipe Lopez	2B	552	.274	11	56	.349	.400	.335
2	Chris B. Young	CF	527	.260	25	77	.336	.482	.358
3	Stephen Drew	SS	532	.276	16	66	.340	.451	.346
4	Conor Jackson	LF	469	.296	14	75	.384	.465	.375
5	Justin Upton	RF	435	.257	16	60	.349	.444	.348
6	Chad Tracy	1B	445	.276	16	60	.339	.452	.346
7	Mark Reynolds	3B	468	.254	22	81	.333	.462	.347
8	Chris Snyder	C	332	.241	13	51	.344	.419	.340

Chad Tracy (.367/.424/.567), Chris Snyder (.317/.417/.610) and Mark Reynolds (.323/.377/.516) didn't wait until April for their bats to heat up. Chad Qualls was one of the few Diamondbacks hurlers to have a thoroughly impressive spring - Qualls posted a 2.70 ERA through ten spring innings that included eight strikeouts and no walks.

Spring Training couldn't end fast enough for Justin Upton (.197/.333/.328) and Conor Jackson (.200/.280/.246), who had abysmal showings in Spring Training. Brandon Webb had a sub-par spring as well (5.82 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), as did two pivotal bullpen arms, Scott Schoeneweis (11.00, 2.44) and Tony Pena (9.00, 2.44)

Philadelphia (92-70, NL East and World Series champions)

Friday-Sunday : 3-game series at Colorado

Rockies fans don't have to wait long to see the World Series Champs at Coors Field. The Rockies' first home series will be against the Phils...and it will be the last time Philadeplhia will visit in 2009.

It won't be easy for the Phillies to repeat. Since the Yankees repeated in 2000, there have been eight different champions in nine seasons. The Red Sox have won twice but failed to repeat both times. Still, Philly Phans remain morbidly optimistic. Philadelphia returns virtually the same team, although Pat Burrell has been replaced by the underrated Raul Ibanez.

Probable Pitchers:

World Series MVP Cole Hamels missed Sunday's Season Opener due to an inflamed elbow. Hamels was pushed back and will be making his season debut at Coors Field for the Rockies home opener. Brett Myers, who got rocked on Opening Day Sunday, will pitch Saturday. Chan Ho Park beat out J.A. Happ for the #5 spot in the rotation and could pitch Sunday, but Charlie Manuel might go with Jamie Moyer, who will have had five days' rest.

Friday, April 10:	Cole Hamels (0-1, 9.39)	vs.	Jason Marquis (1-3, 10.08)
Saturday, April 11:	Brett Myers (2-2, 3.52)	vs.	Jorge de la Rosa (2-2, 6.86)
Sunday, April 12:	Chan Ho Park (2-0, 2.53)	vs.	Aaron Cook (2-2, 3.25)

Lineup:

The Phillies return their entire World Series-winning offense except for Pat Burrell. Chase Utley, who seems to have recovered from his offseason hip surgery, remains as the only head of the Rollins/Utley/Howard monster not to earn an MVP. The Philly starting line-up is indeed fierce, as it projects to score 5.202 runs/game.

But don't get too scared. That would only rank third in the "barren" NL West behind Los Angeles and Colorado.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Jimmy Rollins	SS	633	.281	18	67	.342	.452	.356
2	Jayson Werth	RF	364	.264	15	57	.365	.445	.363
3	Chase Utley	2B	571	.296	27	96	.381	.513	.391
4	Ryan Howard	1B	547	.271	46	128	.379	.576	.409
5	Raul Ibanez	LF	557	.287	26	99	.359	.488	.368
6	Shane Victorino	CF	500	.288	13	56	.350	.444	.353
7	Pedro Feliz	3B	517	.257	21	78	.303	.441	.323
8	Carlos Ruiz	C	371	.256	9	48	.338	.396	.328

The bench is quite strong as well, and we'll likely see plenty of Chris Coste, Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs.

In past years, it has been difficult for the big Ryan Howard to gain momentum at the beginning of the season, but in 2009, there's nobody who has had a better spring. The 2006 NL MVP blasted a ridiculous 10 home runs while posting impressive slash stats (.333/.420/.760). Jayson Werth (.333/.368/.696), Jimmy Rollins (.351/.415/.541) and Carlos Ruiz (.326/.380/.558) hope their Spring fever lasts a bit longer also, and Chan Ho Park (2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.5 K9) ran away with the #5 SP slot.

The "Flying Hawaiian" has yet to get off the ground. Shane Victorino (.180/.226/.260) posted pitcher-like numbers in Spring Training. Fellow southpaw starters Jamie Moyer (8.27 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) and Cole Hamels (9.39, 1.17) have also had their struggles.

Other things to know: Prospect J.A. Happ lost the race to be the #5 starter but remains on the roster in the bullpen...Two big names are trying to return from injury. Chase Utley had hip surgery and Cole Hamels is recovering from a sore elbow. Both figure to be healthy enough to start Friday....LHP Cedrick Bowers is now on the Philly roster...Ryan Howard lost 25 pounds from last season. Judging by his Spring Training, it has helped him.

NL West Report after the jump.

NL West Report

Arizona (11-23)

Ryan Roberts won the race for the 25th spot on the roster over James Skelton, Josh Whitesell, and Josh Wilson. Skelton had been favored due to his status as a Rule 5 draft choice from Detroit. He was waived, but Arizona retained Skelton's services by trading pitcher Brooks Brown to Detroit. Or maybe he's going to be a Colorado State linebacker.

Ryan Roberts

#14 / Third Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 5-11

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 19, 1980

Otherwise, Arizona filled out their roster exactly as predicted last week. However, with Max Scherzer on the DL, Juan Gutierrez snuck into the bullpen.

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors talked with Arizona GM Josh Byrnes, and asked about his K-happy hitters, to which Byrnes responded:

To some extent, strikeouts are like other outs.

Those are some nice sedona red shades you have there Josh. Strikeouts have been and could continue to be the Diamondbacks' undoing, but as he pointed out later in the quote "If enough walks and homers accompany the strikeouts, the tradeoff can work".

This Week: 3 game home series vs. Rockies, 3 game home series vs. Dodgers

Los Angeles (15-22)

Those sneaky Dodgers. The 25-man roster had to be set by noon Sunday, but Los Angeles still hadn't decided its final spots. They submitted a 24-man roster through a loophole and added Claudio Vargas and Delwyn Young to the roster. However, Young and Vargas will be going on the disabled list, so the Dodgers will be adding three more to the 25-man roster before their opening game at 5:05. Will Ohman and Doug Mientkiewicz are expected to be two, and two relievers will be chosen between Ramon Troncoso, Josh Lindblom, Eric Threets, and Ronald Belisario.

Will Ohman

#0 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 13, 1977

The signing of Will Ohman meant Scott Elbert was not needed in the bullpen. Other changes from the forecast of a fortnight past include James McDonald becoming the fifth starter and Jeff Weaver being sent to AAA.

Ned Colletti shaved off 24% of his team's payroll in the offseason by remains the sexy pick to repeat as NL West Champions. Ramona Shelburne at the LA Daily News evaluates Colletti's offseason.

This Week: 4 game road series @ Padres, 3 game road series @ Diamonbacks

San Diego (10-21-3)

The Friars traded for Edward Mujica from the Indians and Eulogio de la Cruz to fill in the bullpen. Luke Gregorson and Edwin Moreno also won bullpen spots while Mark Worrell and Mike Adams were transferred to the 60-day disabled list. The bullpen was a mess a week ago, but a lot has changed in just a week. Shawn Hill will be the fifth starter, and their #3 starter, Walter Silva, is so obscure he does not have a picture or number in our system yet.

Walter Silva

#0 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-1

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 04, 1977

I fail to see how this pitching staff can compete with the Rockies', let alone the complete product. Another look at the bullpen plight.

Buster Olney reported that Jake Peavy was a lot closer to being a Cub than people realize. As Peavy said in a Corey Brock article:

"I prepared myself that I was going to be traded. Everyone in their right mind thought I would be somewhere else"

The former first overall pick by the Padres, Matt Bush, was released by Toronto. The details are sadly and absurdly comical.

This Week: 4 game home series vs. Dodgers, 3 game home series vs. Giants

San Francisco (21-19)

The Giants ended up with a different 25-man roster than it appeared two weeks ago as well. Eugenio Velez beat out Kevin Frandsen as a backup middle infielder, and the front office decided Pablo Sandoval would do fine as a back-up catcher, so Steve Holm was optioned in favor of Juan Uribe.

Juan Uribe

#0 / Third Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-0

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Mar 22, 1979

Brandon Medders got the surprise nod over Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo. Rookie Joe Martinez came out of nowhere to win the long reliever gig. The full-break-down is here.

Jack Taschner was also traded to the Phillies for C Ronny Paulino, who was then flipped to Florida for RHP Hector Correa. The move opened up a spot for Alex Hinshaw to be the primary lefty out of the pen.

This Week: 3 game home series vs. Brewers, 3 game road series @ Padres

Know Your Foe: Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 23:15:07 -0000

Happy Tuesday. Opening Day is 13 days away! That means it is time to evaluate who exactly will be representing our divisional foes on the field in 2009. This week I run down what the most likely 25-man roster will be for the Dodgers and Giants, and the D-Backs and Padres will follow next Monday.

Note on projections: All projections are courtesy of CHONE (except Steve Holm, which is a Bill James projection due to CHONE ignoring Holm's existence). Some bench players and bullpen arms were projected for quite exorbitant at-bats or innings, so they were scaled linearly down to reasonable numbers.

Note on format: Bold items represent locks. For example, all eight starters for the Dodgers are set, but Blake DeWitt and Delwyn Young are still fighting for a bench spot. And off we go...

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lineup:

All eight starters in the lineup are set, with only the batting order left to decide. Rafael Furcal will hit first, followed by Orlando Hudson, but the rest is yet to be determined.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Rafael Furcal	SS	560	.284	11	51	.358	.412	.347
2	Orlando Hudson	2B	486	.276	10	54	.353	.407	.340
3	Andre Ethier	RF	489	.292	16	69	.366	.468	.365
4	Manny Ramirez	LF	483	.290	32	101	.399	.542	.408
5	James Loney	1B	527	.294	13	80	.355	.446	.352
6	Russell Martin	C	500	.286	14	74	.384	.434	.366
7	Matt Kemp	CF	498	.299	16	74	.353	.476	.365
8	Casey Blake	3B	490	.259	20	66	.336	.439	.341

This line-up would be expected to produce 5.332 runs/game as constructed (or a max of 5.410 with optimal orientation). This equates to 863.8 total runs during the season.

Judging by wOBA, the starting lineup features one elite hitter (Ramirez), zero very good hitters, seven above average hitters (Furcal, Hudson, Ethier, Loney, Martin, Kemp and Blake), zero average hitters, and zero below average hitters.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Dodgers are no longer punchless. In fact, their offense is quite scary. You might be surprised to know they are projected to score north of 11 total runs more than the Rockies projected lineup.

Bench:

Brad Ausmus was signed to replace Danny Ardoin as Russell Martin's backup. Ausmus should get more playing time than Ardoin, but Martin still hogs the plate like no other catcher. Loretta will be the chief pinch hitter, and Juan Pierre will be on the bench solely because his salary makes him untradable.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Brad Ausmus	C	186	.212	2	17	.299	.280	.269
Mark Loretta	IF	247	.262	2	23	.338	.342	.309
Juan Pierre	OF	222	.283	1	14	.328	.357	.312
Delwyn Young	OF	171	.262	5	24	.320	.429	.328
Blake DeWitt	IF	252	.252	6	30	.316	.378	.308

Delwyn Young is out of options, so expect him to fill in at the fifth outfielder slot over the recently signed Doug Mientkiewicz - he would also provide the main power threat off the bench. The final bench spot will go to an infielder who can play short. Blake DeWitt is the best offensive option, although he could struggle defensively at short. Chin-Lung Hu and Juan Castro are DeWitt's competition.

You just have to feel bad for DeWitt. Jeff Kent retired, Nomar Garciaparra and Casey Blake were free agents. After a solid rookie year in 08, DeWitt had a starting job...until GM Ned Colletti brought in three free agents that could push him clear off the roster.

Rotation:

Joe Torre has constructed his rotation for a RLRL beginning. Randy Wolf hopes to soften the losses of Derek Lowe and Brad Penny.

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Hiroki Kuroda	158.0	9	8	3.98	1.31	106
Randy Wolf	124.0	7	7	4.42	1.41	103
Chad Billingsley	161.0	10	8	3.68	1.33	156
Clayton Kershaw	115.0	7	6	4.28	1.44	102
Claudio Vargas	108.0	6	6	4.71	1.38	80

This gives Chad Billingsley the home opener. The fifth starter position is still a roulette wheel. None of the contenders have impressed, so James McDonald, Eric Stults, Eric Milton, and even 2008 2nd round pick Josh Lindblom has a longshot chance. In January, an additional game was added for April 7, so the Dodgers can't take advantage of the schedule to put off their decision.

Bullpen:

Jonathan Broxton will get his first shot as a full-year closer, though Hong-Chih Kuo has closer stuff. Guillermo Mota returns to LA, while 2008 pleasant surprsie Cory Wade is guaranteed a spot.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Jonathan Broxton	72.0	5	3	2.78	1.15	10.88
LH Set-up	Hong-Chih Kuo	45.0	3	2	2.69	1.18	11.00
RH set-up	Guillermo Mota	56.0	3	3	4.46	1.42	7.58
RH set-up	Cory Wade	53.0	3	3	4.00	1.25	7.30
2nd LHP	Scott Elbert	43.0	2	2	4.34	1.47	10.47
Relief	James McDonald	57.0	3	3	5.10	1.39	7.72
Relief	Jeff Weaver	50.0	2	3	5.19	1.41	5.59

Scott Elbert is has the lead in the LHP race, and James McDonald is assured of a relief role if he doesn't become the fifth starter. The final spot in the bullpen is likely between Jeff Weaver and Claudio Vargas, though Eric Stults, Ramon Troncoso, Brian Mazone, Tanyon Sturtze, Erick Threets, and Lindblom remain in contention.

Why the Dodgers will win the NL West:

The Dodgers boast exceptional lineup by divisional standards, with practically zero question marks. The bullpen is strong and capable of reining in strikeouts. With Manny Ramirez in the fold, they are the favorite in the division.

Why the Dodgers will NOT win the NL West:

This rotation is as weak as Los Angeles has fielded in some time. Kuroda and Wolf are decent rotation pieces, but LA will strongly be relying on the young arms of Billingsley and Kershaw. Then consider the disaster of a fifth starter and Manny's potential undoing, and it's easy to imagine a scenario where another NL West foe leapfrogs the defending champs.

San Francisco Giants

Lineup:

Emmanuel Burriss could replace Kevin Frandsen in the starting lineup, but the other seven starters are decided. The lineup has yet to be announced, but it could follow as such:

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Randy Winn	RF	563	.281	12	55	.341	.412	.336
2	Edgar Renteria	SS	534	.283	11	59	.345	.408	.335
3	Fred Lewis	LF	.446	.262	9	46	.346	.404	.335
4	Bengie Molina	C	453	.276	16	71	.314	.435	.327
5	Pablo Sandoval	3B	477	.283	11	68	.315	.426	.324
6	Travis Ishikawa	1B	431	.248	16	67	.322	.432	.331
7	Aaron Rowand	CF	523	.273	14	64	.338	.421	.335
8	Kevin Frandsen	2B	382	.288	6	44	.343	.411	.334

That line-up is worth a mere 4.448 runs/game (peaking at 4.473 arranged differently). That's the same as just 720.5 total runs.

Look at the wOBA like we did with the Dodgers. From that we can conclude that the starting lineup features zero elite hitters, zero very good hitters, six average hitters (Winn, Renteria, Lewis, Ishikawa, Rowand and Frandsen) and two below average hitters (Sandoval, Molina). Take your pick of statistical analysis - all project the Giants to have an abysmal offense.

Bench:

Rich Aurilia is all but assured of a bench spot, and Nate Schierholtz will earn one as well due to being out of options. Burriss will either start or find a spot on the bench, and Steve Holm is the only contender as the backup catcher.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Rich Aurilia	IF	377	.263	10	43	.320	.398	.318
Nate Schierholtz	OF	311	.291	9	44	.331	.471	.348
Emmanuel Burriss	IF	323	.270	2	34	.331	.347	.308
Steve Holm	C	181	.238	5	21	.312	.365	.306
Andres Torres	OF	208	.251	4	19	.328	.388	.321

Eugenio Velez has attempted to learn OF to get the fifth bench spot, but it might not be enough. Juan Uribe, who signed this offseason, also looks to be an odd man out. Andres Torres appears to have a solid shot at the 5th OF spot with his hot spring; he is 31and spent each of the last three seasons in AAA with a different organization.

Rotation:

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Tim Lincecum	154.0	10	7	3.05	1.23	175
Randy Johnson	109.0	6	6	3.85	1.27	96
Matt Cain	189.0	11	10	3.84	1.32	166
Barry Zito	176.0	8	11	4.81	1.55	120
Jonathan Sanchez	120.0	6	7	4.02	1.39	116

By far the Giants' strength, the rotation has all but been set since Randy Johnson signed. Like Joe Torre, Bruce Bochy is constructing his rotation in a RLRL fashion.

Bullpen:

The Giants acted quickly to sign Affeldt and Howry, who will set up for Brian Wilson. Sergio Romo is currently sidelined with an elbow injury and won't be ready for Opening Day, but there will be a spot waiting for him when he returns soon thereafter.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Brian Wilson	65.0	4	4	3.71	1.38	8.72
LH Set-up	Jeremy Affeldt	79.0	5	4	3.70	1.35	7.86
RH set-up	Bob Howry	63.0	4	3	3.62	1.25	7.00
2nd LHP	Jack Taschner	59.0	3	4	4.20	1.44	7.78
Relief	Sergio Romo	60.0	4	6	3.76	1.20	9.15
Relief	Merkin Valdez	30.0	1	2	4.69	1.50	7.88
Relief	Luis Perdomo	56.0	3	4	4.99	1.41	7.71

Jack Taschner's familiarity card might trump the hand of Alex Hinshaw, but Taschner could be traded, opening up the possibility for Hinshaw to be the middle relief southpaw. Luis Perdomo is a Rule 5 pick from St. Louis, and his decent spring points to a possible spot in the pen. Non-roster invitee Brandon Medders and Merkin Valdez will battle for the other opening.

Why the Giants will win the NL West:

With the Cy Young winners in tow, San Francicso just might have the best starting rotation in the division - only Arizona is otherwise in contention. Then consider the emerging Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. The bullpen will be decent, especially with the back end headed by All-Star closer Brian Wilson. The lineup has candidates to significantly exceed projections (such as Pablo Sandoval), so it is possible they could score just enough for the pitchers to lead them to the top.

Why the Giants will NOT win the NL West:

It remains to be seen whether Lincecum and Cain's arms can hold up after ridiculous abuse in 2008. A long term injury to either would be debilitating to their divisional hopes. Zito and RJ are tailing off in their respective careers. And then there's the offense. The lineup is constructed solely of veterans past their prime and unproven youngsters. Even with a helthy Lincecum and Cain, don't expect the lineup to produce enough for divisional aspirations.

Thanks to Eric Stephen and Grant for their assistance in achieving accuracy.

Building A Cubs Champion: Introducing Your 2009 Chicago Cubs

Al — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:13:47 -0000

This is the one you've all been waiting for -- the thoughts I have about what sort of 25-man roster, including position players, pitching rotation and bullpen I think the Cubs should put on the field in 2009. I'm also going to make a comment or two on the coaching staff, which by and large did a fine job in 2008 (well, at least until October 1, they did). This is a long post, so I'm going to make you click through to read the rest, rather than show about 3,500 words on the front page. (You're about to find out why this took me so long!)

The key question that must have Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella and everyone else in Cubs baseball management scratching their heads is, "How could a team that won 97 games in the regular season not only lose in the playoffs, but look like a bunch of scared high school kids?"

If you have the definitive answer to that question, incidentally, let Hendry know right away. I'm sure he'd like to know.

The knee-jerk response, of course, would be to pull out the handy 2009 complete free agent list and choose one from column A, one from column B; simply identify the best players and throw money at them until it sticks, increase the payroll, because, after all, that's the best way to win, right?

It's not, and I think that should be obvious by now -- the Yankees of the last several years prove that out. Since they started signing every player in baseball, as that classic 2003 Onion article put so cleverly, they have made the playoffs every season (until 2008), but have won no World Series since 2000 and made it twice in the eight years following, without a win.

We'd take that, of course, but the lesson is: when the Yankees were winning titles, they did it through putting a fine team on the field that had, in large part, been developed in their own system, complemented with good role players (Scott Brosius, Paul O'Neill), instead of simply trying to put an All-Star team on the field. It is worth noting that as soon as Alex Rodriguez left the Mariners, they had several of the best seasons in their history -- and as soon as he signed with the Rangers, they had three of the worst in theirs. Following his signing with the Yankees, they ended a run of appearing in six World Series in eight years -- they haven't been there since. Now, I'm not blaming A-Rod for the Yankees' failures; the point is that simply salivating after someone because he's on a free agent list and puts up gaudy statistics doesn't make a team a winner.

Another team that's a poster child for spending money foolishly is the Dodgers. Sure, they made the playoffs, largely because Manny went nuts there for two months. Without him they'd likely have finished under .500, and I'd bet they'd like back all the money they wasted on Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Jason Schmidt, three of the worst free-agent signings ever.

So for the Cubs, I say stay away from the big-time free agent signings; more often than not, they fail -- though I think Alfonso Soriano has helped the Cubs, he appears to NOT be a good postseason performer and I know there are many here who'd rather see him gone (note: ain't gonna happen). I think the Cubs can, without major surgery and with making some very minor tweaks including adding the very role players that have helped some teams win, take that next step to a title.

It's important to first remember that Jim Hendry is on the cusp of signing a contract extension that will, essentially, keep him and his management team in place for three more years. Since it seems clear that Lou Piniella will not manage past 2010, that also means two other things: that the Cubs will, as they have the last two years, go all out to win sometime before Lou goes, and also that Hendry will be the one to put in place Lou's successor. The 2009 Cubs may be built with both things in mind -- win now, and also put a base in place that will help them be a perennial contender. Further, keep in mind that as long as Lou is in charge, players he likes are going to play no matter how much any of us would like them gone, and players in Lou's doghouse get there and stay there. Just ask Scott Eyre about that -- he's a happy escapee from that doghouse, now that he's in the World Series.

So let's begin -- as is traditional with these sorts of thoughts, I'm going to organize them by position. And as I go through by position, I'll try to construct a logical and reasonable facsimile of what I think the April 6, 2009 25-man roster will look like.

Catcher: here's one place where the Cubs don't have to worry. Geovany Soto hasn't yet been named 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, but he will be, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't unanimous (and no, I don't want to hear the VORP arguments about Joey Votto. Soto was far more valuable to his team than Votto, and was outstanding at a far more difficult defensive position). Where some of us disagree is over the value of Henry Blanco, who, admittedly, is getting old at 38. His value as a mentor to Soto cannot be overstated. Is he worth his $3 million option? I say yes, although I have heard the Cubs are going to attempt to decline it and sign him to a lower-value deal. To do so they may have to give him two years. I'd still do it.

First base: Here's where we begin to dismantle the two-time division champions. Longtime GM Branch Rickey used to say, "Better to trade someone a year too early than a year too late". Very true, I think. And with that, I think it's time for the Cubs to say goodbye to Derrek Lee. D-Lee is a class act and has given us five (mostly) good years. He will be 34 next September, has two years left on his deal, and a year from now I suspect will be almost untradeable. With that, unload him to the Giants. D-Lee is a native of northern California (Sacramento); the Giants seem to like getting hold of older players who still have something left in the tank; and they can afford him. In return, I'd like Matt Cain and lefty reliever Alex Hinshaw. Don't slot Cain into the rotation yet, though; I'll explain why later.

To replace Lee, it will require a trade and a free agent signing; I'm going to suggest a platoon, and there's a reason for that. First, acquire Aubrey Huff from the Orioles. Yes, I'm aware that it's nearly impossible to trade with the dithering Andy MacPhail, but I'm guessing it'd be relatively easy to take Huff's contract ($8 million in 2009) off MacPhail's hands. Send them Sean Marshall, Ronny Cedeno, Michael Wuertz and Micah Hoffpauir for Huff and Luke Scott, who's in line for a large raise as an arb-eligible player in 2009. While Huff had a fine year playing full-time, as a platoon player he'd be even better -- he hit .321/.382/.607 vs. RHP. You'd be giving the Orioles a rotation starter, a starting SS, a strong setup man, and someone who could replace Huff at DH (Hoffpauir). They already have a replacement for Scott in Luis Montanez, the former Cub #1 draft pick at SS who, shockingly, has apparently reinvented himself as a power-hitting outfielder. This deal makes sense for both teams, and later, you'll find out the reason I want Scott. See below, also, for Huff's platoon partner.

Second base: Mark DeRosa is on the last year of his three-year deal, coming off a career year. He'll be 34 in February and isn't likely to replicate his 2008 season. Still, even if he played only at his 2007 level, he's a valuable player who can play multiple positions, and Mike Fontenot is a capable backup. Here, we make no changes.

Shortstop: The bottom line at SS is this: no matter how many SS are free agents (Furcal, Cristian Guzman, Orlando Cabrera, etc.) or may be available by trade (Khalil Greene), Lou loves Ryan Theriot. I don't want to start another round of Theriot-bashing here, but the reality of things is: no matter what any of us thinks, Ryan Theriot is going to be the Cubs' starting SS in 2009.

Third base: Aramis Ramirez.

Backup infield: As noted above, Mike Fontenot returns as the backup 2B. But you are going to need another backup middle infielder, because above I dealt away Ronny Cedeno, and perhaps another hitter. Here's where you go to the bottom rungs of the free-agent list and sign someone: perhaps Alex Cintron, who the Cubs had in camp last spring and who nearly made the team. Others: Felipe Lopez can play several positions and is only 28; Mark Loretta is versatile but is 36; Pablo Ozuna had a couple decent years as a White Sox backup; Juan Uribe can also play several positions, but might want a starting job; Willie Bloomquist can also play multiple spots and played for Lou in Seattle.

Of those, I think I'd go for Cintron, who is a switch-hitter and wouldn't be that expensive (he made $1.9 million in 2008 and $1.6 million in 2007 -- you could probably have him for about $2.2 million.

And then I'd sign Kevin Millar to back up first base and outfield. Yes, this is likely to be controversial -- Millar, after all, is 37 and had a pretty bad year in 2008. But Ryan Dempster, who was supposedly the "loosen up" leader in the clubhouse, says he'd love to play with Millar (again -- they were Marlins teammates from 1998-2002), and Millar is the one credited with inventing the Red Sox "idiots", the ones who made the amazing comeback in 2004, the guys who won because they threw off the yoke of jinxes. Millar does have some power (25 doubles, 20 HR last year) and has a .361 lifetime OBA. But there is value in him beyond his statistics, and yes, that is important when you play a game where 25 men basically spend six months together in close proximity.

Outfield: We are stuck with Alfonso Soriano. Phil Rogers' column yesterday suggested Jim Hendry might go after Manny Ramirez, but to do so would require dumping Soriano's deal (if you hate him in LF, you'd despise him in RF). The Dodgers, presuming they'd lose Manny, might be interested -- but in order to push Soriano off on them, you'd probably have to take one or more of LA's bad contracts (the same Pierre, Jones and Schmidt deals I mentioned above). I personally don't have the least bit of interest in any of those three.

So keep Soriano. He can carry a team, at least in the regular season, and then hopefully, someone else can in October.

In center field, I'd give one more year to the productive platoon of Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds. It will not come as cheaply as the $1.6 million combined the Cubs paid to those two last year -- Johnson's probably in line for a $4-$5 million one year deal (if not a multiyear deal) and Edmonds will probably get close to the $8 million he got combined from the Cardinals and Padres in 2008. Yes, it's a risk; there's always the risk that Edmonds could fall off the face of the Earth in 2009. But Cub CF -- and Johnson and Edmonds combined account for 139 of the 161 games there -- hit .290/.374/.484 with 23 HR and 101 RBI. Even 2/3 of that production would be great, considering Johnson and Edmonds provide fine defense.

Now, you're going to find out why I made that deal with the Orioles to include Luke Scott. Meet your 2009 starting right fielder, Luke Scott. I firmly believe that the Cubs and Kosuke Fukudome are going to reach an agreement that will allow both sides to, with face saved, get out of the remaining three years of the deal signed last year -- probably with several million dollars of buyout -- and Dome, who is deep in Lou's doghouse (and you all know that once there it's nearly impossible to get out), will return to Japan. Scott, who hits RHP very well (.269/.346/.492 last year) would play most of the games, with Mark DeRosa playing some others and Millar perhaps a handful (though he hasn't played any RF since 2005).

So your Opening Day 2009 Cubs position player roster, if I'm in charge, reads as follows:

 C: Geovany Soto, Henry Blanco
1B: Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar
2B: Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot
SS: Ryan Theriot
3B: Aramis Ramirez
INF: Alex Cintron
OF: Alfonso Soriano, Reed Johnson, Jim Edmonds, Luke Scott

13 position players would begin the season, just as last year. You'll note Felix Pie is not listed there, and you're about to find out why.

Starting pitchers: Re-sign Ryan Dempster to a three-year deal with a mutual option for a fourth season. The dollar amount isn't that critical because Dempster loves playing in Chicago and would likely give Jim Hendry a hometown discount, particularly after Hendry signs Dempster's buddy Millar. There is risk here: Dempster was horrid in the NLDS and yes, he could regress. But I think Dempster learned his lesson last offseason and is willing to work hard to keep his near-Cy Young form.

Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Harden are under contract for 2009 and, presuming they all keep in shape and work to fix any unresolved problems left over from '08, will be, along with Dempster, one of the best top fours in baseball in 2009.

Jason Marquis, who was the best fifth starter in the game last year, will, under my scenario, bid a fond farewell to the Cubs and re-emerge in his hometown, New York, for either the Mets or Yankees, both of whom could use an inning-eater like Marquis. In return for one of the Big Apple teams taking over the $9.875 million left on Marquis' contract, all the Cubs require is to get a face-saving prospect or two.

And that leaves the fifth spot open. But you're saying, having read my epic saga so far, "Wait! Didn't you trade for Matt Cain 17 paragraphs and a blockquote ago?"

Yes, I did, but Cain isn't going to pitch a single inning in a Cub uniform. Instead, he's headed to the Marlins, along with Felix Pie (told ya I'd get to that!) in exchange for Ricky Nolasco.

The reason Nolasco is on the trading block should be obvious. The Marlins operated with the lowest payroll in the majors last year, and Nolasco made the major league minimum of $390,000. His 15-8, 3.52 season with 186 K's (8th in the NL) made him one of the top pitchers in the league last year, and he's arb-eligible... which would probably make him a salary of at least $7 or $8 million, which would be close to half the Marlins' total payroll. There's no way they'll do that. Cain is scheduled to make a more reasonable $2.65 million in 2009 and $4.5 million in 2010; the Marlins can handle that and Cain becomes their #1 or #2 starter, and Pie their starting CF (freeing up Jeremy Hermida for trade, and if the Luke Scott deal becomes impossible, Hermida, who is 9-for-27 with 4 HR lifetime in Wrigley Field, might be an enticing target, and Sean Marshall and Michael Wuertz, who I'd send to Baltimore for Scott, could be the starting point for a deal for Hermida, or you could make one huge deal for Hermida and Nolasco). Finally, getting Nolasco back, just at the time he's probably headed to his peak years (he's 26 in December) would right the massive wrong Jim Hendry did when he sent him away for Juan Pierre three winters ago.

Your 2009 Cub starting rotation:

 Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden, and Ricky Nolasco (not necessarily in that order).

Bullpen: Just as I'd re-sign Dempster, I'd re-sign Kerry Wood to a two-year deal to close with a mutual option third year. Carlos Marmol returns to set Wood up, and Jeff Samardzija (who I still think is better suited to relief than starting) fills the 7th-inning role that Bob Howry failed so miserably at for most of 2008. Howry departs to free agency -- he might, because the free-agent rankings take into account the last two years, even bring a draft pick if someone signs him.

Alex Hinshaw, acquired from the Giants, becomes the LOOGY (LHB hit .205 with only 1 HR off him last year); Neal Cotts remains as another lefty who can go longer. Chad Gaudin and Angel Guzman should round out the bullpen, or perhaps some other righthander will come out of spring training, or there are over 80 other free-agent relievers on the above-linked free-agent list.

Your 2009 Cubs bullpen:

 Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, Chad Gaudin, Angel Guzman, Alex Hinshaw, Neal Cotts

I'm not going to get into specific dollar amounts, but just looking over what I've done here, I have removed $13 million of Derrek Lee's deal (and Bob Howry's $3 million and the $1.2 million Daryle Ward earned is gone too); that's $17.2 million gone, probably eaten up with the additional money paid to Johnson, Edmonds, Dempster and Wood (above and beyond what those men made in 2008, a total of $15.5 million -- it'll take about twice that to retain those four). In addition, subtracting the $11.5 million that was due to Kosuke Fukudome in 2009 and Jason Marquis' $9.875 million should cover Aubrey Huff's $8 million and whatever is paid to Luke Scott and Ricky Nolasco. That might make this roster cost virtually the same as the 2008 team, something that ought to be manageable given the uncertain state of the sale of the team and the overall economy.

And that, I believe, is how you build a team. Not "blowing it up", not throwing multiple millions of dollars at a free-agent dartboard, but carefully, taking advantage of the assets you already have to keep a team performing at a high level, and take it to the next one.

Manager/coaches: I still like Lou Piniella, but just as any manager will when you get to know him well enough, he drives us nuts with some of his in-game decisions and use of his bench and bullpen. One thing that I think Lou failed us in both last year and this is his approach to the postseason. He managed games in the NLDS in 2007 and 2008 as if it were May 1, not October 1. When Ryan Dempster was in trouble in game 1, why wasn't Ted Lilly -- who wasn't going to pitch for three more days -- warming up? Other teams use starters in relief in the postseason; why can't the Cubs? That's just one example. The fact that Lou didn't really treat the last week, against contending teams, as playoff type games, bothers me, especially the last regular season game vs. Milwaukee, where he put a spring-training pitching staff out there. We all know what might have happened had the Cubs won that game, which would have forced a Brewers/Mets playoff -- what if the Mets had won that?

Anyway, that's done and gone. But Lou has to learn a lesson from those failures, too.

I think the entire coaching staff will return, with the possible exception of Matt Sinatro, who may go back to Seattle. If that happens, do not be surprised to see a familiar face, a very popular one, on the coaching lines at first base in 2009 -- Ryne Sandberg. Sandberg did a very good job at Peoria the last two years, improving from year to year, and he has made no secret of his desire to manage in the big leagues. Promoting him to the major league coaching staff would be a good first step toward getting him the experience he needs to do that.

So there you have it -- what I'd do, starting as soon as possible, to give the Cubs a winning roster in 2009. Naturally, there are always the unforeseen -- injuries, declines, career years -- but this, rather than just buying every free agent in sight, I think is the way to do it. These are, FWIW, my thoughts only and don't represent any inside information... except for exactly one of the potential transactions I've mentioned, which I have heard the Cubs are interested in making. Speculate away -- I'm not telling. Go Cubs. Let's win it all in '09.