SB Nation - Carlos Santana

Down on the Farm: Part 2 of Interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 14:00:16 -0000

Here is the part 2 of the two part interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect. Foster and the guys over at Project Prospect recently posted their top 15 catching prospects, so head on over to Project Prospect and check out their top 15 rankings.

Fake Teams: Aside from the AFL, what prospects that you have seen this year made the biggest leap forward? Step back?

Adam Foster: James Darnell is a guy who I went well out of my way to see this year. His swing really impressed me at Minor League Spring Training. He's very athletic with a good chance of sticking at third base. And his power potential is outstanding.

Some of my colleagues who are really into college statistics pointed Darnell out as a guy who may have fallen further than he should have in the draft - he wasn't healthy his junior season. Then I bumped into Darnell's Cape Cod League coach in Phoenix one night and he said he wanted Darnell over Justin Smoak on his Cape team.

I'm not saying that Darnell is a lock to become a superstar. But he's one of the best prospects in baseball. And people who aren't giving him that kind of recognition probably haven't done their homework.

As far as guys who took a step back, unfortunately Tim Alderson was a different pitcher this year than last. He lost some movement on his fastball. And his pinpoint accuracy left him. There are guys who chose to give up some velocity to gain movement. Alderson may have gone the opposite direction in 2009, I'm not sure. But even though his curveball is already a plus pitch, he wasn't giving High-A or Double-A hitters much trouble last season. He definitely has elite control. I just don't think he's a big league pitcher without outstanding command.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I read in your Rising Stars game chat that you and your colleagues are not as high on the Phillies outfield prospect Domonic Brown. What are your reasons?

Adam Foster: Guys who are outstanding fast-twitch athletes can become overrated in a hurry. People like to assume that they're athletic enough to do things that other players can't. In Brown's case, there's some false information floating around that he's an elite defender. He has a very good arm and he's fast, but he doesn't get good reads or take good routes. Those skills can't really be learned. So it's highly unlikely that he'll be more than an average defensive right fielder.

Additionally, he's really not very coordinated - compared to his peers. My first reaction when I saw him bat was that he looked awkward. He gets in a crouch to try to shrink down his big strike zone (Brown is 6-foot-5). And while he has a lot of bat speed, is patient, and recognizes pitches well, he's not going to be an above-average contact hitter. There's not much he can do about that. He doesn't have very good bat control.

Keep in mind that Brown is an elite prospect. He's in the 99^th percentile for his class. I'm just dissecting the heck out of him here. If you compare him to the other guys who are at the head of the class, I don't think he stands out as one who's going to become a star. He's very good and a likely bet to become an average big leaguer. But there are a dozen or so hitters out there who I see as better prospects than him.

Fake Teams: What players who underwhelmed in 2009 do you expect to jump back into the limelight in 2010?

Adam Foster: Reese Havens is a good one to start with. He moved to second base in the Arizona Fall League and looked solid at the position. He's a polished, well-rounded hitter who can play up-the-middle defense. He was a first rounder. And had a successful junior season in college - I'd be more confident in him if he was better his sophomore year, though. His baseball resume puts him in elite company. I'll be surprised if he doesn't break out in 2010.

Don't sleep on Jon Niese and Kevin Mulvey. They are solid bets to turn into useful big league starters. You could also end up looking like a genius if you snatch up Kellen Kulbacki cheap now that a lot of people have forgotten about him. Nick Noonan was one of the youngest players in High-A and has a lot of potential. Ivan De Jesus may not be a fantasy stud, but if you play in a deep dynasty or sim league, don't forget about him - and I'm sure you haven't ;).

Fake Teams: What prospects do you feel who should be getting more press based on their talent/performance?

Adam Foster: Josh Bell is just starting to get the attention he deserves. I guess you lose some street cred when you get traded for a reliever. But the Dodgers are clearly working under the win-now model, so I wouldn't hold it against him. He can play third base and has a lot of power. If Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace can't stick at third - and they probably won't - then Bell starts looking like a pretty good pick for the best "true" third base prospect in the minors. I'll have to compare my video of him and Darnell this offseason, though.

Brandon Snyder is another guy who has the resume to turn into a solid big leaguer. But you don't hear much talk about him. I'm a big Drew Cumberland believer. Matt Sweeney is a breakout guy. Lorenzo Cain has fallen out of the spotlight but I still see a lot of potential in him. Che-Hsuan Lin gets lost in the Red Sox depth of athletic hitters. Jaff Decker gets overlooked largely due to some old scouting biases.

Fake Teams: Who are your top 5 hitting prospects going into 2010? Who are your top 5 pitching prospects going into 2010?

Adam Foster: At the end of the 2009 season, we ranked Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, and Buster Posey as the game's top five hitting prospects with Dustin Ackley, Desmond Jennings, Fernando Martinez and Mike Stanton on the bubble. Those guys will account for the bulk of - if not all - the spots among our top five hitting prospects entering 2010.

We didn't get to see many of baseball's top pitching prospects at the AFL. And I still want to get better reads on some guys. But Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz are clearly at the head of this class. Daniel Hudson and Jeremy Hellickson were two of the most impressive pitchers I saw in 2009 - Hudson for his FB and CH movement; Hellickson for his command. Then it's hard not to like Neftali Feliz' stuff. The five guys I've mentioned were our top five pitching prospects when we put together our October top 25 pitching prospect list. Most of them should also be top five on our 2010 list.

I want to thank Adam for taking the time for this interview.

Dodgers Farm System Among Lower Half Of MLB, Per Baseball America

Eric Stephen — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:47:40 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Andrew Lambo will likely make an appearance tomorrow in the top ten Dodger prospects per Baseball America

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Baseball America will announce their choices for the top ten prospects of the Dodgers tomorrow, and I'm sure Phil Gurnee will have plenty to say about that, but in the meantime editor in chief John Manuel gave a glimpse to Sports illustrated as to how each franchise stacked up. Outside of the top five and bottom five farm systems, the other franchises were split into two groups.

The Dodgers were lumped in the 16-25 category, with the following quote from Manuel:

L.A. has spent less on draft picks the last two years than any club, and it shows.

The Dodgers' success the last few years has been fueled largely by their own homegrown talent, and it is understandable that their ranking would drop given all the prospects who have graduated to the big leagues. Still, I can't help but wonder how much better the system might look if it had...

Likely Indians' top prospect Carlos Santana, sent to Cleveland in lieu of a lesser prospect in order to pay roughly $2 million of Casey Blake's remaining 2008 salary
Unsigned 2006 draftee Alex White, who went to college instead and became a first round pick of the Indians in 2009
Unsigned 2007 draftee Kyle Blair, who also went to college and will likely be a first round pick in 2010

Well, at least the Dodgers have four extra picks in the 2010 draft to replenish the system as a result of offering arbitration to Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. Oh wait...

Transactions: Shoppach Traded

Ryan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:18:04 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Andy Marte is the winner of the Coco Crisp Trade Survivor contest.

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Traded C Kelly Shoppach to Tampa Bay for a Player to be Named Later

Kelly's career stats:

There are several factors that contributed up to this trade. First, and most importantly, the Indians have two young catchers (Lou Marson, and later Carlos Santana) that they'd like to get a good look at this year. They could have waited until they thought Santana was ready to handle a major league staff to trade him, but there was little chance that he would remain with the team through the 2010 season.

Shoppach is also in his second year of arbitration, and is due for a small raise from his $1.95M 2009 salary. Kelly's offense fell off dramatically in 2009, though he still managed a 98 OPS+, still very good for a catcher. Shoppach's offensive game is always going to be an amended Three True Outcomes (home runs, strikeouts, and, in hit by pitches), but last season the strikeouts were up and the power was down. I don't see 2009 as part of a downward trend for Kelly, though. Finally, Kelly was very critical of organization after the Victor Martinez trade, and while that criticism probably had little to do with the trade, it also made dealing him in the offseason an easier call than if he had embraced his opportunity after the trade. I still think he was going to be dealt sooner or later, but it would have made more sense to wait until during the 2010 season to do it, since his value might have gone up with better offensive production.

The trade means that Lou Marson will be the Indians' Opening Day catcher, and most likely that Wyatt Toregas will be his backup. Carlos Santana is slated to spend some time in AAA until the Indians feel he's ready defensively.

The Indians, as is often their tactic, will choose a player from an agreed-to list. The deadline for making the pick is December 20th, so I'll comment on the player then.

Frank McCourt has a strange way of defining "Business as Usual"

Phil Gurnee — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:09:13 -0000

Eric seemed a bit ticked off today as Frank McCourt proved once again that economics is more important then fielding the best team now and in the future. When Ned Colletti was hired among the news of the divorce he said he was told that the Dodgers would conduct "Business as Usual". And he's right, the Dodgers are conducting business as usual for them. Ever since the summer of 2008 Frank has shown that he's more concerned with saving money and playing in the now then he is in the long term future of his Dodgers. Move after move has saved him money in the short term while allowing him to compete in the short term, but this strategy can only work so long, and just like leveraging the team time and time again at some point you have to pay the piper.

Many seemed shocked by todays news that the Dodgers would not offer Wolf/Hudson arbitration. I'm not sure why, the Dodgers have clearly had a trend for the last 18 months of saving money at every opportunity and being risk averse when it comes to arbitration.

Cost cutting moves since the summer of 2008.

2008

1. Selling/Trading Carlos Santana/Jon Meloan to the Indians for a free and clear Casey Blake. The ramifications were the loss of the best player in the California League who played a premium position in exchange for a good 3rd baseman for the current team at zero cost saving the team around $2,000,000. The only thing wrong with the deal was that to get the Indians to play Casey's salary the price seemed much much to high when you consider who the Indians got from the Brewers when they traded CC and didn't pay any salary.

2. Trading/Selling 2007 2nd round pick Michael Watt for Greg Maddux. Nothing wrong with getting Maddux but since we didn't want to pay any salary the cost of the prospect was kind of high for a 40 something year old pitcher who could barely go 5 quality innings.

3. Trading/Selling Andy LaRoche/Byron Morris for Manny Ramirez. Nothing wrong with acquiring Manny but again the Dodgers managed to acquire a player for the post season push at no financial cost to them by trading prospects.

In 2008 the Dodgers managed to trade Carlos Santana/Jon Meloan/Michael Watt/Andy LaRoche/Byron Morris and acquire Manny/Blake/Maddux while not taking on any salary. Surely a short term bonus to the team but quite a price to pay for the future instead of just spending some money.

2009

1. Deferring Andruw Jone's contract instead of simply eating it and not having to worry about the cost in the future. By deferring his contract it allowed them to sign Wolf/Hudson/Manny.

2. Deferring Manny's two year deal so that the pain would endure for many years to come.

3. Trading Tony Abreu for Jon Garland. The cash strapped Diamondbacks threw in some money ($3,661,102) to cover Garlands buy out and for that price they got someone who will probably be there starting 2nd baseman in 2010. The Diamondbacks now have a cheap 2nd baseman for the next several years while Dodgers have no Garland and no 2nd baseman.

4. Shockingly the Sherrill trade was not about money, but the long term ramifications might be felt for years to come as Josh Bell and Steve Johnson were ripped from the system.

5. With the possibility of gaining four high draft picks the Dodgers opt to not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson because of the fear of having to pay them even though the odds of them accepting arbitration were not very high. And even if they did accept, one year deals for productive players in their 30's is usually a good plan of attack. For once they may have screwed themselves not only in the short term but in the long term. In the long term Eric noted the value of those draft picks is in the millions with these tweets from Jay Jaffe:

4 years ago Nate Silver estimated that team losing type A f-a is compensated with $12 million in draft picks.

So, for avoiding 4 bonuses ($1-2 mil per, max), Dodgers lose out on $24 mil of picks by not offering Hudson & Wolf arb. #mccourtsmustgo

In the short term we certainly could have used either Wolf or Hudson in 2010 on one year deals.

Also in 2008/2009 the Memories of Kevin Malone chronicles how the Dodgers over the last two years have spent the least amount of money on draft bonuses

The Dodgers have paid $8.5 million in signing bonuses for draft picks over the last two years -- the lowest figure among all major league teams, according to Baseball America.

The Dodgers, so proud of their heritage in Asia and Latin America, today are a non-factor in bidding for top amateur players abroad. In 2008, according to Baseball America, major league clubs combined to sign 115 such players for bonuses of more than $100,000. The Dodgers did not sign one.

Let us not forget how they handled the following draft picks as Eric reported in the comments.

2006: Dodgers draft Alex White in 14th round, big time talented P out of HS, don’t sign him (he went #15 to Indians in 2009)
2007: Dodgers draft Kyle Blair in 5th round, fail to sign him for $1.35m…he goes to USD and will be 1st rounder in2010.

And you wonder why I was shocked that Garret Gould was signed. I wonder what Logan White had to do to make that happen?

Face it, this ownership has cash flow problems and has done everything it can possibly do to mitigate current financial obligations by either deferring the problems to the future or selling assets (prospects) to help them compete in the short term. A $100 Million dollar payroll is no small amount but when your competition in the NLCS is spending $140 Million it might seem you are playing with an arm tied behind your back. However the Padres won't feel sorry for the Dodgers since the Dodgers outspend the Padres by the same margin.

Amazingly with all of this the team still has a core good enough to get back to the postseason but now I'm wondering who will be next to finance the short term goal as they throw the long term vision away?

If Frank came out and said, you know I've got some financial problems and we need to cut back until we get this straightened out, I'd feel like writing a Hobo Frank column saying we should support this team. I could live with the current team as we throw out Haeger/McDonald/Elbert/Lindblom into the rotation along with a host of cheap NRI's. I could live with DeWitt/Belliard manning 2nd base until DeJesus is ready. I can live with having to go cheap with the farm in combination with what we currently have. What I can't live with is bullshit PR spin about Business as Usual and the selling of the future because they don't have the cash for the present. This may be business as usual for Frank McCourt but it is not how Dodgers fans expect the team to be run. At least I hope not.

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

DeJon Watson talks with TBLA

Phil Gurnee — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:41:33 -0000

Josh Rawitch set up a Q&A session with Dodger Assistant GM, Player Development, DeJon Watson. For those unfamiliar with DeJon he's a local boy who starred in baseball and football at Santa Monica High School and was drafted in the 3rd round of the 1985 draft by the Royals. He never advanced above A ball and turned to a career in scouting. He quickly moved up the scouting ranks and was the Cincinnati Reds Director of Scouting when he did this interview. In October of 2006, Ned Colletti hired him away from the Indians and brought him back home. Just one year later he was promoted to Assistant GM, Player Development. A busy man he took a few minutes out of his time to talk with TBLA about the Dodger prospects. Below is a summary of that conversation. Originally I had 50 questions but was told to cut it down to 10-12. I'm sure many questions you or I had were cut and in retrospect I wish I had asked a few of my other questions then the one's I did ask.

I did not have a phone recorder so unless you see a quote, the answers I've written down are summaries

Ivan DeJesus lost a year to injury. Other then a brief appearance in Arizona we have not heard how he's doing. Has he made a full recovery without any loss in athletic skills and can we expect him to be playing winter ball in Puerto Rico? He's going to play winter ball in Puerto Rico, has a slight limp, still little trouble doing the turns, straight a head is fine, expectations are for him to be 100% by spring training. Little worried about the pounding his leg will take on the winter league astro turf.

Josh Lindblom started most of the time in AA but once promoted to AAA he pitched only in relief. Is the belief going forward that he's a bullpen guy instead of getting a shot in the rotation? He pitched in relief for the Isotopes just in case the Dodgers needed him in the bullpen. The expectation is that if he does not make the major league roster he will be pitching in the Isotope rotation.

Lucas May made some big strides with the bat this year, having a solid year in AA, World Cup, and the AFL. The one question many of us have is how is he progressing as a catcher? We have heard many a rumor that pitchers do not like pitching to him, has trouble with passed balls, and just does not appear to have the skills to be a major league catcher. Are these unfounded? Is he progressing as a catcher? Defense is improving, has made "drastic improvement" based on his play in the AFL. Was the main catcher for the World Cup team which won the World Cup.

Andrew Lambo had a pedestrian season in AA but is doing quite well in the AFL, where will he be playing in 2010? Still needs to prove himself in AA, very happy with his performance in the AFL as he's still one of the youngest players in the league but is one of the best hitters in the league.

Why did Kyle Russell spend the whole season with the Loons and how worried are you about the K's? - he stayed with the Loons all year because they liked the group of players they had there and wanted to keep them together as a unit for the complete season. Pitch recognition is his biggest problem and they hoped they made some big strides in the instructional league this Sept by adjusting his setup. They don't want to reduce his aggressiveness and realize that a hitter like that will strike out.

Tony Delmonico followed the Russ Martin, Carlos Santana, Lucas May playbook and was converted to a catcher. How did you and your scouts feel that worked out and is that going to stick? - Tony will stay at catcher and we felt he was making excellent progress when he was hurt and had to move from behind the plate.

Gerald Sands struggled in the MWL, was sent to Ogden where he destroyed the league playing CF, came back to the Loons and finished strong while playing 1st base. What position will he be playing in 2010 and do you see him making it to the California League? "blue collar kid" , "Brings it every game" , going forward he will play both 1^st and the outfield, he has the foot speed to play the outfield but they are not ruling out 1^st base.

Ethan Martin and Nate Eovaldi became an interesting tag team during the 2nd half; can you elaborate on the thinking behind using them in the same game in the 2nd half for about three innings each? Since Ethan was coming off the injury last year and Nathan had the history of the TJ, they wanted to keep the innings down so they put them together. Next year the gloves will come off and they will both be in the rotation.

Is Austin Gallagher a 1st baseman going forward and is his shoulder healthy? - Still looking at both sides of the diamond for Austin. His shoulder is coming along and he's making progress, taking dry swings at the moment. They love the bat and his internal desire.

Aaron Miller was dynamite for the Loons during the regular and post season. Are the Dodgers going to be aggressive with him and move him to AA to start the season? - To be determined this spring but he's impressed everyone in the organization with not only his stuff but his poise.

Allen Webster had a big year, was that the biggest surprise of the season or did your scouting staff know what you had? - When drafted he was throwing 88-90 but after making some adjustments to his pitching mechanics and natural physical maturation he was touching 95 this year. "added five feet to his fastball". Other players of note who he thought made big strides were Buddy DeLaRosa - "touching 98 - 99 " this summer after some tweaks to his mechanics. Carlos Frias big arm.

One of the Dodger prospects we traded away a few years ago was Chuck Tiffany. He then suffered an arm injury and wasn't able to come back with the Rays. This summer we signed him to a contract but I've never heard a word about his progress? Is he still with the organization? If so what are the expectations? - arm never bounced back, he was released at the end of the year

What happened to College World Series hero Clayton Allison? - shoulder surgery (would not reveal what kind), expected to be 100% by spring.

Minor Improvements: Offense

APV — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 20:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Michael Brantley should not spend much time riding the bench in 2010

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What is impressive about two of the Indians most improved seasons by minor league offensive players is that they were already top prospects. Amazingly, Carlos Santana might have had the most improved season of any Indians minor leaguer, despite coming off a sensational 2008 season.

Carlos Santana, in case you forgot, put up a .326/.431/.568 last season, spending most of his time in high-A Inland Empire and then Kinston. That included 21 HRs, 65 total XBHs, and more walks (89) than Ks (85). This year he advanced to AA and spent the entire season as the constant rock in the middle of the Aeros potent lineup. Any adjustment time Santana needed to AA talent was minimal, as he put up a .290/.413/.530 line with 55 XBHs (23 HRs) and even more walks (90) than Ks (83). Part of what made his 2009 so impressive however was that there was good reason to suspect some regression in his numbers coming into the season. His 2008 was built on the back of a +.370 BABIP. What he did this year he did with a totally reasonably .314 BABIP...no getting lucky argument for 2009, it was just the real thing.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.290	.413	.530	.943	1.028
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
16.8	15.5	23	+60	10.9

Michael Brantley, like Santana, was a top prospect coming into the season. As a member of the Brewers AA Huntsville team Brantley put up a .319/.395/.398 line with a phenomenal 5.6% K-rate. Again - Brantley's baseline may not jump out as much improved. In fact, in a lot of ways, it does not look improved at all. This year in Buffalo he put up a .267/.350/.361 line (before hitting .313/358/.348 for a month in Cleveland). Aside from advancing to AAA, where's the improvement? Again the answer lies deeper in his numbers. Michael Brantley had an underwhelming .288 BABIP this season despite putting up line drive rates well over 20% essentially every month - just as we saw in September, Brantley is a line drive machine. Corrected for this, Brantley's adjusted OPS for 2009 was actually .821, up from .767 in 2008. And despite being hobbled early in the season with a hamstring issue he stole 46 bases in 51 attempts. Now if only we could say with certainty he was a great defender (or even a good one)...

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.267	.350	.361	.711	.821
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
11.2	9.1	6	+76	9.1

John Drennen is not a top prospect. There was a time (after the 2006 season) when Drennen was a good looking young prospect, and not just because he managed to take Roger Clemens deep in a minor league game. Then came a disappointing 2007, and then a truly terrible 2008 despite repeating Kinston. Starting in Kinston for a third straight time seemed to light a fire in Drennen, as he began the season hitting .270/.395/.397 in the season's first month. The improved plate discipline was a particular surprise. Following his promotion to Akron his plate discipline regressed, but his power spiked to a career high (36 XBHs, including 8 HRs, in 354 plate appearances). Drennen's final cumulative line, .273/.333/.441 is not going to earn him a ticket to Cleveland, but given that he just turned 23 in the season's final month, it does put him back in the picture somewhat.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.273	.333	.441	.792	.821
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
7.7	16.0	8	0	5.4

Other offensive players who showed solid improvements from 2008 to 2009: Matt LaPorta, Jordan Brown, Donnie Webb, Lonnie Chisenhall, Matt McBride and Nick Weglarz. Pitchers will come later in the week.

UPDATE: A couple other players probably deserve a slightly longer shout-out...

It was in many ways a good year for Andy Marte. Certainly his best season since his final season with the Braves organization in 2004 at AAA Richmond. Between Columbus and Cleveland Marte put up 24 HRs and 30 2Bs. Marte seems have morphed into contact/BABIP driven offensive player, perhaps reflective of his strong pull tendencies. To be worth anything with that kind of approach he needs to show considerable power, and this season was pretty much his best power display as a pro player.

This year was also Jordan Brown's best season as a pro. Brown has followed a similar trajectory of plate discipline regression/power increase that Marte has. Unfortunately for Brown the power isn't really quite as good (.196 ISOP to Marte's .266 in AAA) and the defensive is more of a limiting circumstance. The MLE (from minorleaugesplits.com) line from Brown's season is .301/.339/.464.

Finally, Nick Weglarz rebounded pretty nicely from a disappointing 2008 season interrupted by injuries and the olympics. Weglarz baseline numbers, .227/.377/.431, are considerable deflated by a .253 BABIP (his previous career low was .311 in his rookie campaign at Burlington). His power jumped back towards his 2007 figures, which were solid, if not yet into the light-tower territory people expect from him. His BB-rate reached a career high of over 17.5% while his K-rate remained pretty stable at 18.3%. Amazingly he'll still just be 22 next year, perfect time I hope for a huge season and preparation for a 2011 rookie presence in Cleveland.

Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro

Jay — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:53:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Is just developing a good process enough?

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This is the final installment in a 12-part series.

"A Hit Is A Hit" — The Sopranos, season one.

Christopher has been bankrolling a band called "Visiting Day", who are managed by his girlfriend Adriana. He plays the band's demo to his associate Hesh, an old-timer in the music business.

CHRISTOPHER: So?

HESH: I think it's ... not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Wanna be a little more specific?

HESH: There's good. And there's not good. This is not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Okay, maybe it's not your era — no offense, but ...

HESH: Kid, music is music, talent is talent. I don't care who you are. I seen it all. I seen heavy metal invented by Hendrix at the Bottom Line, he just got out of the army. I told him, "Kid, I don't know what you call it — talent, charisma, magic — whatever it is, you got it." These guys ... [gestures to the cassette] ... I'm sorry, they don't.

CHRISTOPHER: That Vito is a great guitar player, Hesh.

HESH: Good, fine, he's a great guitar player. However, there's one constant in the music business: A hit is a hit. And this, my friend, is not a hit.

CHRISTOPHER: But why?

HESH: Christ. Reasons we can never comprehend or codify, you pitiful schlepper.

Of all the installments in this series, this is the one where it's most tempting to beg off and admit, this might just above my pay grade. I'll be honest, I can't say with much confidence whether Mark Shapiro should be fired. What I can say is that there are definitely good reasons to fire him.

Before we get to that, better face up to some hard facts. If you're going to fire Shapiro, you have to believe that a better option is available. Chris Antonetti is the heir apparent, but you fire Shapiro and keep Antonetti only if you think that in keeping Antonetti, you preserve the best parts of Shapiro while rooting out his shortcomings. Heck, maybe that's actually the case, but I personally couldn't say. It doesn't seem likely. And if Antonetti was the instant front-runner for most any GM opening, what would that make Shapiro if he were available?

Shapiro's calling card is turning walk-year veterans into prospects who become multi-year contributors to the team — a truly staggering haul, including Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Coco Crisp, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Bard and Kelly Shoppach. Add to that list, potentially, over the next several years, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Luis Valbuena, Michael Brantley, Lou Marson, plus a half-dozen significant pitching prospects, plus Mark DeRosa, Arthur Rhodes, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez. Even his least successful trade acquisitions — Alex Escobar, Jason Michaels, Brandon Phillips, Billy Traber, Andy Marte, Josh Barfield — have not been entirely bereft of big-league talent.

We've chanted that litany before, but it bears recalling because horse trading is one of the most important jobs of a GM, and it's notably one of the only jobs where success or failure is directly traced to his decision. Shapiro also has had an impressive run with third-tier free agent starting pitchers — Pavano made 33 starts and netted a decent prospect, Byrd completed three serviceable seasons, Millwood won the freakin' ERA title, and even Brian Anderson did okay for a couple of years. And while fans rightly bemoan the dead weight of Hafner's contract, Shapiro has not really made the big, crippling mistakes that befall most GMs — on the balance sheet, Hafner-Westbrook-Dellucci pale before Wells-Rios-Ryan.

If you're going to get rid of Shapiro and his like-minded colleagues, then you have to be willing to live without those exemplary skills — without his leadership, class, and intelligence, his deftness with trades and contracts, the respect he commands within the industry, and especially — especially — his willingness to take the public body blows when tough decisions need to be made. You can't assume that the next guy will excel in all of those areas. I am certain we'd miss those qualities.

Having said that, I can tell you why Shapiro should be fired in one word: Talent.

Baseball is never simple. As a rule, the world's most elite natural athletes cannot succeed as major leaguers. Hitting and pitching are simply too hard. Hitting at this level requires a knack that may be the hardest thing to quantify or characterize in all of sports, and if you don't have it, then all the talk or mechanics and approaches in the world can't save you, even if you have several NBA championships and MVP awards on your résumé. Pitching at this level requires a freakish combination of precise muscle control, huge arm-generated torque, resistance to elbow and shoulder injury under extreme stress, and intelligence.

Running a baseball club may be just as hard and just as unquantifiable; after all, more than a few titans of industry have tried and failed. A brilliant executive can't necessarily run a ballclub any better than a world-class athlete can hit a curveball. The brilliant executive can be an inspiring leader, managing and empowering his charges. He can define what kind of people he wants working in the organization, hire them, set expectations, evaluate them, act on them. He can fire people. He can order case studies and surveys of best practices. He can analyze statistics and devise processes, enact them, evaluate them, refine them, start over from scratch if need be. He can maintain outstanding communication with his staff, with his bosses, with the public. He can do all these things reliably, even predictably, because he simply has the tools and the skills.

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Sometimes — often, maybe — it comes down to reasons we can never comprehend or codify, pitiful schleppers that we are.

Evaluating talent is a special skill, and here I can speak with some experience. Most of my professional life is centered around my ability to identify genuine talent — musical talent, IT talent, and even writing talent — people who reliably will perform at a high or exceptionally high level, just about 100 percent of the time. I have, on occasion, identified individuals with weak paper qualifications who later went on to excel in their field. In some cases, they thrived in part because I gave them an opportunity and aided their development. In other cases, their success was inevitable, and I just saw it earlier than some others.

I am not suggesting, by any stretch of the imagination, that I have the ability to judge baseball talent. Maybe, if I'd spent 20 years working as a baseball professional, learning from thousands of discussions with scouts and making and testing my own observations — maybe then, but perhaps not even then. For whatever it's worth, though, I can tell you that my ability to assess a person's talents is entirely intuitive. I have no ability to explain it, or to teach anyone else how to do it. I can be highly analytical in my assessments of people, breaking down facts and metrics, making rules and devising grading systems to create rankings — and I can teach these things by rote and by example. However, none of that has anything to do with being able to differentiate reliably between a high ceiling and a low ceiling.

I can't tell you for sure that it's the same for baseball, but I worry that it is. Most of the people reading this could be trained in the rudiments of being a low-level scout — doing your homework and measuring some kid's raw tools on the field. Skills are another thing entirely — evaluating footwork and positioning on defense, observing quality of command across a variety of pitches, intuiting the difference between a bad day and a chronic problem. Beyond these, another level, the crucial, game-changing question: Will this ballplayer develop skills beyond what he's showing today? How does he project to a different level at a different age, or even just to a different ballpark in a different league?

I have no doubt that great baseball scouts learned a lot from the great scouts who came before them, and I have no doubt that a gifted executive can learn immensely from a great scout, purely by his ability to listen and communicate and absorb. At the same time, I am quite sure that the greatest talent evaluators in the game are possessed of something that is innate and ineffable. And I am genuinely concerned that the Indians don't employ any of those people — and that, in fact, Shapiro may have favored others in the organization to the point where the best evaluators left.

Take a look at the AP report of Neal Huntington being hired away by the Pirates:

Huntington formerly was the assistant general manager to the Indians' Mark Shapiro, but dropped behind vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and assistant general manager John Mirabelli on the front office depth chart two years ago.

Huntington accepted a different role in 2005, Shapiro said, because Antonetti's skills were in the management and administrative side, while Huntington's were in evaluation and scouting.

"My skill set and passion were more that of an evaluator, but they never technically took me out of the front office," Huntington said. "I was exposed to some incredible things -- rebuilding an organization and being involved in every decision, every tough decision, that was made."

And from the MLB.com report:

As an adviser to Shapiro and vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, Huntington was involved in nearly all personnel and staffing decisions, as well as trade acquisition discussions. He also spent the majority of his time evaluating talent on both the Minor and Major League level.

When asked about Huntington, Shapiro responded: "[Huntington is] one of our chief evaluators and one of our strongest voices on every level," Shapiro said.

Here's a guy who was the highest-ranking evaluator in the organization and possibly the best, a guy with a master's degree in sports management from UMass, and essentially, he was passed over — well treated, perhaps, but pointedly not in line for a future role as GM. So too, perhaps, was John Farrell, who upon leaving Cleveland — quite amicably, as Huntington did — was quoted to say that he was looking to have a larger voice in an organization. Farrell had been a major league pitcher and a college pitching coach, and with the Indians he served stints as Farm Director and Director of Player Development. Despite his experience and impeccable reputation, Farrell too was not viewed as the future leader of the organization.

Years earlier, there was Tony LaCava, whom the Indians hired in 2002 as national cross-checker, essentially rescuing him from the sinking-ship Montreal Expos. As the Expos very recent Farm Director, LaCava naturally was instrumental in selecting the prospects to be received in the Colon deal, which is not only Shapiro's signature trade, but arguably the most successful trade of a veteran for prospects by any GM, ever. LaCava, too, was not retained in the Indians organization, moving on to the Blue Jays as Assistant GM in 2003, just one year later, while John Mirabelli continued his string of generally disastrous drafts.

Like Huntington, LaCava is going to be a GM sooner or later, yet he wasn't good enough to be Assistant GM in Cleveland. None of these guys were given large enough roles in the organization to keep them around, and no doubt the Indians were possessed of too much executive talent to keep in-house — a nice problem to have. Still, given how things have gone since, it's telling that the prince-in-waiting anointment, and present-day "co-GM" status, went not to an ace evaluator, but instead to Antonetti, a man whose background and skill set are more or less identical to Shapiro's.

For all the talk about being open to all ideas and all viewpoints, the major player-evaluation talent in the Indians organization was basically told that being a solid administrator was more important, and that their path to bigger jobs would have to be in some other, presumably less enlightened organization — and never mind that it doesn't matter how well administered your organization is if you don't know who the best talent is. (Is it any wonder, then, that when Shapiro hires a former catcher for a manager, he then populates his coaching staff almost entirely with other former catchers? All leaders lead by example, first and foremost.)

This is not to say that an executive without a scouting background cannot be an outstanding GM, but it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the "Ivy League whiz kid" GM model tend to have a "wise old baseball man" figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan. But when non-scout-gifted-executives Shapiro and Antonetti huddle to make the big decisions, who are the wise old evaluators in the room — Charles Nagy and Jason Bere?

Later that night, at home, Adriana and Christopher discuss Visiting Day's potential. Hip-hop mogul "Massive Genius" has told Adriana that the band's demos are promising.

CHRISTOPHER: You know how I use the technique of positive visualization?

ADRIANA: I know you talk about it. You're fairly negative a lot of the time.

CHRISTOPHER: I think you should mentally prepare for the possibility that Visiting Day sucks.

ADRIANA: What?

CHRISTOPHER: I think that ... the only reason you've gotten this far with Massive is ... he wants to be in your pants.

ADRIANA: Boy, oh, boy.

CHRISTOPHER: Look, I had some experts listen to the demo ... they crapped all over it. Sorry.

ADRIANA: Who, Hesh? That old synagogue cantor?

CHRISTOPHER: Silvio. Hey, he owned rock clubs in Asbury. You heard what Squid said. A professional engineer.

ADRIANA: What about my opinion? That it's good. That it's special. This is just a way for you to keep me down.

CHRISTOPHER: That ain't fair.

ADRIANA: What's wrong with it, huh? What's wrong with Visiting Day?

CHRISTOPHER: I don't know ... but it's a problem that you don't know.

This series of articles perhaps has only demonstrated the obvious, that a club this bad — which decides in June that it must not only tank the current season but the next season at the same time — has suffered multiple failures in more than one part of the organization. In any one area, we can talk about how much control that one group of people — coaches, scouts, trainers — really had, compared to the influence of the other groups and the whims of the fates. But a systemic failure points ultimately to Shapiro, who hired and is accountable for all of those groups, and the harsh truth is that every club must contend with the whims of the fates — or fail to contend with them, as the Indians have.

Amateur scouting has been a disaster since Shapiro took over; maybe time will reveal that it was fixed two or three years ago, but maybe not. Big-league scouting has been a mixed bag, with veteran acquisitions missing a lot more often than they hit — in Barfield's case, about four times more often. The training staff has won high praise from some in the industry, but they haven't stopped the Indians from being undercut severely by injuries to a half-dozen key players in just two years — in some cases, multiple injuries and disappointing rehab processes have afflicted a single player like Jake Westbrook over and over again. The farm system has been another mixed bag, producing too many players who dominate at Triple-A but can barely perform at replacement level in the majors. If all clubs were like the Indians in this regard, those MLE formulas might look a lot different.

We had a manager whose playing-time decisions often defied any imaginable logic or reason, who thought it was important to have Ramon Vazquez on his bench rather than future 30-30 man Brandon Phillips, and who thought it was a good idea to put Ryan Garko in the outfield, with a rookie flyball pitcher on the mound — scratch that, ever — and we had a GM who let him do these things. It's true that Shapiro fired Wedge, and he may be sincere in saying that bringing in a new manager is an exciting opportunity. Even so, Shapiro made it abundantly clear that he didn't think there was any real, qualitative reason why Wedge shouldn't continue to be the manager — his exact words were, "it's a cop-out."

We had extraordinarily bad — and sometimes historically bad — bullpens in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009. Those volcanic fiascos were, at least, largely Shapiro's direct creations, and at most, entirely the fault of Shapiro and people who were hired by Shapiro, and who generally have not been fired by Shapiro. They have turned too many contenders into also-rans, too many decent squads into train-wrecks, and too many season ticket holders into non-customers.

The sum of these observations is this one, frightening, inescapable conclusion: Shapiro has not given us any concrete reason to believe that he knows how to put people into critical positions who are capable of evaluating, developing and coaching real talent — the kind that can thrive at the major league level. Without people in key roles who are possessed of that kind of judgment and talent, it doesn't make any difference how good your organizational processes are or how much class-acting you do. We cannot contend on a diet of trade-acquired minor leaguers and recycled starting pitchers alone. If these things weren't clear five years ago, or even one year ago, they ought to be crystal clear now.

I am just a scribe, neither scout nor coach, not a baseball executive and certainly not a former major leaguer. So I don't really know what's wrong with the Cleveland Indians. But it's a problem if Mark Shapiro doesn't know either. And as much respect for him as I have, I'm not at all convinced that he does.

Game 156: Cleveland 9, Baltimore 0

Ryan — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:43:53 -0000

More photos » by DAVID RICHARD - AP

David Huff turned in his best outing as a pro, throwing eight shutout innings.

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If this was David Huff's last start, he ended his rookie season on a high note. In fact, I think this start might be the best non-Lee start of the season. Huff pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just 5 hits and 2 walks and striking out 5. Judging by his last five starts, it seems like he's made adjustments to the league, and although he'll have to compete for a rotation spot next spring, there's a very good chance that he'll remain with the big-league club in 2010.

The Indians made it easy on Huff by scoring six runs in the first inning. Asdrubal Cabrera (who would collect four hits on the day) drove home two on a double, Andy Marte drove another one in with a single, and Kelly Shoppach capped things off with a three-run homer. I still maintain that, even though Lou Marson has done well in his September audition, it would behoove the Indians to keep Shoppach around another season. Let Shoppach and Marson share time early in the season, and when Carlos Santana is ready, then deal Shoppach away.

Matt LaPorta hit his seventh home run in 158 at-bats today, and has brought his batting line up to (going into today) a fairly respectable .272/.312/.456. I think it's a given that he's going to be in the lineup Opening Day, though the question still remains what position he'll be playing.

Next Up: Chicago comes to town. Danks vs. Laffey, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
David Huff	.123	Shin-Soo Choo	-.030
Kelly Shoppach	.122	Jhonny Peralta	-.012
Asdrubal Cabrera	.104	Matt LaPorta	-.005

Cleveland Indians Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects for 2009

John Sickels — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:00:26 -0000

by Gail Burton - AP

3 months ago: Cleveland Indians left fielder Matt LaPorta dives unsuccessfully for a line drive by Baltimore Orioles' Felix Pie during the fourth inning of a baseball game Friday, Aug. 28, 2009, in Baltimore. Pie earned a double on the play. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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Cleveland Indians Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published December 29, 2008. This is a review of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.

1) Carlos Santana, C, Grade B+: .287/.413/.515 for Double-A Akron, 90 walks, 83 strikeouts in 421 at-bats. Looks great to me.

2) Matt LaPorta, 1B-OF, Grade B+: .299/.388/.530 for Triple-A Columbus, .268/.311/.443 in 97 at-bats for Cleveland. Just needs to play.

3) Adam Miller, RHP, Grade B: We could reduce the cost of health care by 39.78% nationwide if we could just keep this guy away from the doctors.

4) Beau Mills, 1B, Grade B: .266/.306/.412 for Akron, quite disappointing power production.

5) Hector Rondon, RHP, Grade B: 2.75 ERA with 73/16 K/BB in 72 innings for Akron, 60 hits. 4.05 ERA with 59/13 K/BB in 67 innings for Columbus, 75 hits. Good K/BB ratios, will probably need more Triple-A time.

6) Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Grade B-: .276/.346/.492 in 99 games for Class A Kinston, .182/.240/.398 in 23 games for Akron. Rushed to Double-A and it shows.

7) Nick Weglarz, OF, Grade B-: .227/.377/.431 for Akron. Draws walks, has some power, but will need more time.

8) David Huff, LHP, Grade B-: 6.57 ERA with 49/32 K/BB in 101 innings for the Indians, 138 hits. Um, that's not very good. He throws strikes at least, but stuff is short.

9) Carlos Rivero, SS, Grade B-: .244/.312/.346 for Akron. He got off to a slow start but hit somewhat better in the second half, .288/.351/472 after the All-Star break.

10) Scott Lewis, LHP, Grade C+: Pitched 23 innings at five levels on rehab.

11) Michael Brantley, OF, Grade C+: .267/.350/.361 with 46 steals in 51 attempts for Columbus. I like the speed, walk rate, and low strikeout rate. Lack of pop a problem.

12) Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP, Grade C+: On rehab in the Arizona Rookie League.

13) Wes Hodges, 3B, Grade C+: .270/.312/.394 for Columbus. Bat is short for a corner.

14) Matt McBride, OF, Grade C+: Hit .405/.453/.667 in 31 games for Kinston, but just .244/.300/.427 in 95 games after moving up to Akron. Still somewhat intriguing.

15) Luis Valbuena, 2B, Grade C+: .239/.295/.412 in 79 games in the majors. Not exactly stunning, but will get more chances.

16) Jon Meloan, RHP, Grade C+: 66 innings at four Triple-A stops, playing the bouncing waiver game. 60/29 K/BB, 4.50 ERA combined. Command his main issue, we'll see if Oakland can improve it.

17) Zach Putnam, RHP, Grade C+: 4.18 ERA with 77/23 K/BB in 80 innings between Kinston and Akron, 79 hits. I think there is development potential here.

18) Trevor Crowe, OF, Grade C+: .297/.401/.400 for Columbus, .208/.271/.283 in the majors. Expect him to bounce around as a reserve/Triple-A guy for the next ten years.

19) Rob Bryson, RHP, Grade C+: Rehabbing in the Arizona Rookie League.

20) Chen-Chang Lee, RHP, Grade C+: 3.28 ERA with 96/28 K/BB in 82 innings, 66 hits for Kinston. Very good numbers.

21) Cord Phelps, 2B, Grade C+: .258/.385/.354 for Kinston, 92 walks. Gets on base, but lack of power will be an issue.

22) Bryce Stowell, RHP, Grade C+: 5.31 ERA with 54/31 K/BB in 58 innings for Kinston, 62 hits. Pre-season sleeper pick that hasn't panned out yet.

Not a terrific year for a lot of guys on the list. Santana looks great to me, and LaPorta can hit once he gets a job. Rondon and Chisenhall will also rank highly on the 2010 list, as well as prospects brought in through recent trades. The system was stagnating so the new blood should help.