SB Nation - Kellen Kulbacki

San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:11:50 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres rookie pitcher Aaron Poreda heads to the bullpen before a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh Friday, Sept. 18, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Browse more photos »

San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Donavan Tate, OF, Grade B+: I'll trust the tools and San Diego's approach to hitting instruction with this one.

2) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade B+: Excellent arm with improving command, has come a long way since pitching poorly in rookie ball in 2007.

3) James Darnell, 3B, Grade B: A solid all-around hitter with good power and very good plate discipline.

4) Jaff "Commodore" Decker, OF, Grade B: If John Kruk and Matt Stairs can play in the majors, Jaff Decker can too, bad body or not.

5) Wynn Pelzer, RHP, Grade B: A personal favorite, he strikes people out and gets grounders with plus stuff. Really like him a lot.

6) Everett Williams, Grade B: As with Tate, I trust the tools and the Padres' ability to refine them.

7) Logan Forsythe, 3B, Grade B-: Joe Randa type, good plate discipline, good glove, perhaps not the power of a standard third baseman.

8) Edinson Rincon, 3B, Grade B-: Very impressive bat, but I want to see him at higher levels and his glove looks like a big problem at third. Future outfielder most likely.

9) Cory Luebke, LHP, Grade C+: Doesn't have the power stuff of Castro or Pelzer, but very polished.

10) Aaron Poreda, LHP, Grade C+: Command collapsed after the Peavy trade, cutting into his grade.

11) Lance Zawadski, SS, Grade C+: At worst he could be a very good utility guy, but there's some chance he could develop into a decent regular.

12) Rymer Liriano, OF, Grade C+: Very toolsy, hit well in the Arizona Rookie League but will need to improve his plate discipline.

13) Sawyer Carroll, OF, Grade C+: Hit .317/.413/.489 with 19 steals and 80 walks between the Midwest League, Cal League, and Texas League, but no one seems to have noticed. Production didn't drop at San Antonio.

14) Drew Cumberland, SS-2B, Grade C+: Can't stay healthy, but when on the field he's been very effective as an on-base threat. Young enough to turn out very well.

15) Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Grade C+: Gets an injury mulligan, but he needs a fast start in '10 to quiet the persistent doubters.

16) Adys Portillo, RHP, Grade C+: Bad rookie ball numbers, but could follow the Simon Castro career path.

17) Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Grade C+: Impressive athlete with a lively arm, one of my favorite high school pitchers from the '09 draft.

18) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+: Scouts are panning his glove but his bat looks solid to me, good plate discipline as with many Padres prospects.

19) Jerry Sullivan, RHP, Grade C+: Solid arm out of Oral Roberts, could rise quickly.

20) Eric Sogard, 2B, Grade C+: Gets on base, not punchless, defense is so-so but I like the bat enough to keep give him this grade

21) Jeremy Hefner, RHP, Grade C+: Someone I've liked since he was in college. Another guy with good components.

OTHERS: (all Grade C): Vince Belnome, 2B; Mitch Canham, C; Cesar Carrillo, RHP; Dexter Carter, RHP; Matt Clark, 1B; Luis Durango, OF; Allan Dykstra, 1B; Chris Fetter, RHP; Ernesto Frieri, RHP; Brandon Gomes, RHP; Nick Greenwood, LHP; Chad Huffman, OF; Cedric Hunter, OF; Will Inman, RHP; Craig Italiano, RHP; Jeremy McBryde, RHP; James Needy, RHP; Cesar Ramos, LHP; Jorge Reyes, RHP; Evan Scribner, RHP.

I felt this system was underrated entering 2009, and things are really looking up here. They've got a good mixture of polished bats and upside arms, and adding additional athletic upside in the '09 draft just makes things even better. Although they went with more athleticism at the top (Tate, Williams, Sampson) this year, they continued to draft polished college guys in the latter rounds, and I think this strategy will help them. It should also be noted that even the "skill" drafts before 2009 included good athletes like Darnell, Forsythe, Cumberland, Pelzer, and Zawadski. This was never a "tools don't matter" organization, no matter what people said.

A year from now things could look even better if Tate, Williams, and some of the lower level guys develop as expected. I should also note that there were several other guys that I could have written about: Brad Chalk, Blake Tekotte, Brad Brach, Anthony Bass, Erik Davis, Nick Schmidt, Nate Frieman, and others were considered. I might end up dropping Nick Greenwood and adding someone else, but there just isn't enough room for all of the Grade C guys who merit inclusion. The list I ended up with reflects a mixture of what I thought would interest people, including some guys who are closer to the majors but also putting in a few lower-level sleepers.

Overall, I really like this farm system.

Down on the Farm: Part 2 of Interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 14:00:16 -0000

Here is the part 2 of the two part interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect. Foster and the guys over at Project Prospect recently posted their top 15 catching prospects, so head on over to Project Prospect and check out their top 15 rankings.

Fake Teams: Aside from the AFL, what prospects that you have seen this year made the biggest leap forward? Step back?

Adam Foster: James Darnell is a guy who I went well out of my way to see this year. His swing really impressed me at Minor League Spring Training. He's very athletic with a good chance of sticking at third base. And his power potential is outstanding.

Some of my colleagues who are really into college statistics pointed Darnell out as a guy who may have fallen further than he should have in the draft - he wasn't healthy his junior season. Then I bumped into Darnell's Cape Cod League coach in Phoenix one night and he said he wanted Darnell over Justin Smoak on his Cape team.

I'm not saying that Darnell is a lock to become a superstar. But he's one of the best prospects in baseball. And people who aren't giving him that kind of recognition probably haven't done their homework.

As far as guys who took a step back, unfortunately Tim Alderson was a different pitcher this year than last. He lost some movement on his fastball. And his pinpoint accuracy left him. There are guys who chose to give up some velocity to gain movement. Alderson may have gone the opposite direction in 2009, I'm not sure. But even though his curveball is already a plus pitch, he wasn't giving High-A or Double-A hitters much trouble last season. He definitely has elite control. I just don't think he's a big league pitcher without outstanding command.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I read in your Rising Stars game chat that you and your colleagues are not as high on the Phillies outfield prospect Domonic Brown. What are your reasons?

Adam Foster: Guys who are outstanding fast-twitch athletes can become overrated in a hurry. People like to assume that they're athletic enough to do things that other players can't. In Brown's case, there's some false information floating around that he's an elite defender. He has a very good arm and he's fast, but he doesn't get good reads or take good routes. Those skills can't really be learned. So it's highly unlikely that he'll be more than an average defensive right fielder.

Additionally, he's really not very coordinated - compared to his peers. My first reaction when I saw him bat was that he looked awkward. He gets in a crouch to try to shrink down his big strike zone (Brown is 6-foot-5). And while he has a lot of bat speed, is patient, and recognizes pitches well, he's not going to be an above-average contact hitter. There's not much he can do about that. He doesn't have very good bat control.

Keep in mind that Brown is an elite prospect. He's in the 99^th percentile for his class. I'm just dissecting the heck out of him here. If you compare him to the other guys who are at the head of the class, I don't think he stands out as one who's going to become a star. He's very good and a likely bet to become an average big leaguer. But there are a dozen or so hitters out there who I see as better prospects than him.

Fake Teams: What players who underwhelmed in 2009 do you expect to jump back into the limelight in 2010?

Adam Foster: Reese Havens is a good one to start with. He moved to second base in the Arizona Fall League and looked solid at the position. He's a polished, well-rounded hitter who can play up-the-middle defense. He was a first rounder. And had a successful junior season in college - I'd be more confident in him if he was better his sophomore year, though. His baseball resume puts him in elite company. I'll be surprised if he doesn't break out in 2010.

Don't sleep on Jon Niese and Kevin Mulvey. They are solid bets to turn into useful big league starters. You could also end up looking like a genius if you snatch up Kellen Kulbacki cheap now that a lot of people have forgotten about him. Nick Noonan was one of the youngest players in High-A and has a lot of potential. Ivan De Jesus may not be a fantasy stud, but if you play in a deep dynasty or sim league, don't forget about him - and I'm sure you haven't ;).

Fake Teams: What prospects do you feel who should be getting more press based on their talent/performance?

Adam Foster: Josh Bell is just starting to get the attention he deserves. I guess you lose some street cred when you get traded for a reliever. But the Dodgers are clearly working under the win-now model, so I wouldn't hold it against him. He can play third base and has a lot of power. If Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace can't stick at third - and they probably won't - then Bell starts looking like a pretty good pick for the best "true" third base prospect in the minors. I'll have to compare my video of him and Darnell this offseason, though.

Brandon Snyder is another guy who has the resume to turn into a solid big leaguer. But you don't hear much talk about him. I'm a big Drew Cumberland believer. Matt Sweeney is a breakout guy. Lorenzo Cain has fallen out of the spotlight but I still see a lot of potential in him. Che-Hsuan Lin gets lost in the Red Sox depth of athletic hitters. Jaff Decker gets overlooked largely due to some old scouting biases.

Fake Teams: Who are your top 5 hitting prospects going into 2010? Who are your top 5 pitching prospects going into 2010?

Adam Foster: At the end of the 2009 season, we ranked Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, and Buster Posey as the game's top five hitting prospects with Dustin Ackley, Desmond Jennings, Fernando Martinez and Mike Stanton on the bubble. Those guys will account for the bulk of - if not all - the spots among our top five hitting prospects entering 2010.

We didn't get to see many of baseball's top pitching prospects at the AFL. And I still want to get better reads on some guys. But Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz are clearly at the head of this class. Daniel Hudson and Jeremy Hellickson were two of the most impressive pitchers I saw in 2009 - Hudson for his FB and CH movement; Hellickson for his command. Then it's hard not to like Neftali Feliz' stuff. The five guys I've mentioned were our top five pitching prospects when we put together our October top 25 pitching prospect list. Most of them should also be top five on our 2010 list.

I want to thank Adam for taking the time for this interview.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: San Diego Padres

Brendan Scolari — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 02:18:40 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Browse more photos »

Buyers or sellers?

The Padres are in the cellar of the NL West, 24 games behind the first place Dodgers. At 37-58, they are obviously sellers. The problem for the Padres is that some of their most tradeable players are hurt, making them difficult if not impossible to deal. But the Padres are trying to add prospects in the hopes that they can build a contender some time in the next few years.

Short-term need

Hmm, where to start... The Padres have needs all over the diamond. With the trade of Scott Hairston and collapse of Brian Giles, Adrian Gonzalez is the only player who needs to stay on the field. Tony Gwynn Jr. has done a fine job too but whether he can keep that up remains to be seen. The same goes for the pitching staff, where only Jake Peavy and Heath Bell are good contributers. Peavy has about a 50-50 chance of not pitching again this year so he won't be included in any trades. Chris Young hasn't been able to stay healthy either of the last two years, and wasn't any good this year even when he was. Basically, the Padres just need more good players anywhere they can get them.

Long-term need

For the long term the Padres are in nearly the same position as they are in the short term. They've got a young bat in Kyle Blanks testing the water in the big leagues, but they still need better players at nearly every position other than first base. The Padres have quite a few young outfielders and they should eventually be able to piece together a decent outfield. But the infield leaves something to be desired and the Padres still don't have any pitching depth at all. When Kevin Correia is your third best starter you know you're in trouble. Adding more upside arms should eventually help the Padres pitching-wise and the offense will eventually get better provided some of the young players develop.

Big leaguers on the market?

Injuries to Peavy and Young should keep them in San Diego for at least the rest of the year. The team has already traded away Cla Meridith and Scott Hairston in seperate deals, so they don't have a lot of role players left ot trade. Moving Hairston at least got the Padres some nice young players from the A's. There have been rumors about an Adrian Gonzalez trade, but don't expect that to happen unless the Padres are absolutely blown away by an offer. Gonzalez is under contract through 2011 for very cheap and is the face of the franchise so the Padres have little reason to trade him. The only other player who would bring back a hefty return is Heath Bell, but the Padres have sounded reluctant to trade him as well.

Minor league strength

The minor league system has been rather thin for years now, and that (coupled with the payroll) has really been the downfall of the organization. The outfielders has quite a few prospects (especially if Blanks has to move there); guys like Jaff Decker, Cedric Hunter, and Kellen Kulbacki could be starters there in a few years. Coupled with Tony Gwynn Jr. and Chase Headley, they have lots of depth there.

They also have some pitching depth in the minors, but the problem is that most of them aren't going to be impact arms. Guys like Will Inman and Wade Leblanc are supposed to fill out the back of a major league rotation, not be some of your best pitching prospects. One player who could make a difference is Mat Latos, who was dominating in the minor leagues this season, going 8-1 with a 1.37 ERA in 72.1 innings across two levels.

The good news for Padres fans is that the team has begun committing more to drafting and signing high-quality amateur players. They drafted Donovan Tate with their first pick in 2009, considered by many to be the best high-schooler in the country. They also showed that they have become more committed to spending money on more expensive talent in the last year. Previously they were very frugal in this department, so this new committment could be a ray of hope that the organization is finally focusing on developing it's own players. Given the team's payroll, there may not be any other way.

Take on short-term money to win?

The Padres have the second lowest payroll in the majors (ahead of only the Marlins), they laugh at the idea of taking on payroll. They will be looking to shed expensive contracts wherever possible.

For more coverage of the Padres, check out Gaslamp Ball.

TotalZone on Corner Outfield Prospects

erik — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 13:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Travis Snider just has DH written all over him.

Browse more photos »

SS | CF | 2B | 3B | OF | 1B

Last but not least, let's check out corner outfielders. Charted below are the consensus top corner OF prospects.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Jason Heyward	ATL	18	A	203	358	13	19
Matt LaPorta	CLE	23	AA	120	258	-14	-28
Mike Stanton	FLA	18	A	107	225	4	9
Andrew Lambo	LAD	19	A	129	293	-2	-3
Daryl Jones	STL	21	A+	118	236	8	17
Jose Tabata	PIT	19	AA	116	214	8	19
Nick Weglarz	CLE	20	A+	111	236	2	4
Michael Burgess	WAS	19	A	173	385	1	1
Kellen Kulbacki	SDP	22	A+	148	287	13	24
Nolan Reimold	BAL	24	AA	218	430	-4	-5
John Raynor	FL	24	AA	136	309	-2	-3
Caleb Gindl	MIL	19	A	212	388	13	17
Michael Taylor	PHI	22	A	76	170	1	3
Cole Gillespie	MIL	24	AA	146	344	2	3
Cody Johnson	ATL	19	A	116	320	-9	-14

Travis Snider didn't quite qualify, but was horrendous (-28) in 2007. His minor league plus major league TZ have him at -8 in 106 games last year. CHONE projects he'll be -10 this season.
Jason Heyward is a beast in every facet of the game. The scouting reports say he needs to read the ball of the bat a little better and improve his routes, but according to TZ, he was superb in the field last season.
Matt LaPorta improved after moving from right field to left after being traded to Cleveland (+4). Even so, he was a first baseman in college and will be a first baseman in the majors.
Jose Tabata was moved to center field after being traded to the Pirates, and it looks like he has the range for it, but with Andrew McCutchen around, right field is probably where he'll stick.
Daryl Jones has the speed for center field but an arm for left. He played wide receiver in high school and even turned down some college scholarships to play pro baseball. He looked like a classic tools bust until he underwent LASIK eye surgery during the winter before last season. Since the surgery, Jones has hit .316/.407/.483 in A+/AA. LASIK may have also helped him see the ball better in the outfield; he was -24 through '05-'07, + 15 at both levels combined in '08.
Scouts knock Kellen Kulbacki's defense, likely because he's sort of slow and doesn't appear to hustle. TZ on the contrary says he was rather awesome.
Caleb Gindl is the all-out type, but he has to be with his limited set of tools. The extra hustle may have helped him post some pretty strong defensive numbers, despite below-average speed.
Cody Johnson was the Braves' first round pick in 2006 and looks like a rather one-dimensional prospect. He can't field or run and he strikes out one out of every three trips to the plate.

Unlike infielders, the numbers for corner outfielders actually translate a little worse from one season to the next. Chone explains:

For corner outfielders, it appears that the quality of fielding, by looking at players who move up in levels, is lower as you move up in level, with major leaguers being the worst!

This was a bit hard for me to believe. There are some reasons that it could be possible—players lose speed relatively quickly, and outfield range is highly dependent on speed. Also, the lower levels of the minors use the DH in every game, which probably cuts down on the Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell types in minor league outfields. Another thing to consider is that players like Dunn were not the same lumbering plodders in the minors. At age 21, he was likely a good bit lighter on the scale and faster in the field. Major league outfielders, especially at the corners, are selected more for their bats than their gloves, and while having a lot of bulk muscle helps you hit for power, it does not help you chase down fly balls.

Makes sense.

Hopefully you all enjoyed this series.We all know that with any fielding metric, particularly with a quasi play-by-play metric, there is room for error. TZ is definitely a huge step up from anything else we have for minor leaguers, or at least since Dan Fox's SFR was being published. (Curse you, Pittsburgh Pirates for poaching one of my favorite baseball bloggers! The nerve.)

I'd personally be more likely to accept Keith Law, Baseball America and other prospect watcher's opinions about a player's ability to field first, particularly when they all agree, but this is another nice tool to have in the toolbox when it pertains to evaluating prospects. On the contrary, if I got conflicting reports, I'd seek these numbers out next, particularly when there is more than a season or two's worth of data handy.