SB Nation - Luke Hughes

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Twins Trade Rumors: Marco Scutaro & Freddy Sanchez

Jesse — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 11:50:16 -0000

Some love for the middle infield early on a Tuesday.

Marco Scutaro

#19 / Short Stop / Toronto Blue Jays

Height: 5-9

Weight: 175

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 30, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Marco Scutaro	99	397	72	117	30	1	8	46	61	48	8	4	.295	.388	.436

Positives: That offensive line sure looks nice, doesn't it? And for a pro-rated portion of his $1.1 million dollar salary (plus maybe another $200K in incentives), it looks like an absolute steal. He's played all three infield positions on the left side over the last couple of years, giving him that coveted tag of "versatile". His UZR/150 at third base last season (in just over 330 innings) was 24.2 (very, very good). As shortstop, which is where he'd be most likely to play for the Twins should a deal be swung (barring losing Joe Crede for the rest of the season, knock-on-wood), he posted a 20.3 UZR/150 in '08 (472.1 innings) while notching a still decent 8.1 rating this year as a full-time shortstop.

Negatives: He's 33, so he's younger than Orlando Cabrera, but he's never had this good of a season. His career year prior to this campaign was back in '06 when he hit .266/.350/.397 with the Athletics. Sure, that's still an upgrade, but to get to that point he'd have to play some pretty bad baseball the rest of the season. This great season at the plate has less to do with playing in Toronto (he's actually hit better on the road the last two years), but it's still realistic to expect some regression from Scutaro here on out. In the field, historically he's been a jack of all trades but master of none. He's had up and down years at short, third and second base, possibly because he's constantly shifted around, but it's still a fair point: it'd be hard to predict how he'd play on a turf that rolls faster than most.

Deal Maker/Breaker: It sounds like he won't be moved until after the Blue Jays find a suitor for Roy Halladay. Additionally, though he might not cost a pretty penny financially, he's currently designated as a Type-A free agent. And it's a solid designation; only a drastic fall-off over the last couple months would drop him. Trading a pair of good prospects might be too much, but considering the Twins might be able to recoup those picks at the end of the season there could be some strong push regardless.

My ideal world: P Kevin Mulvey, IF Trevor Plouffe/Steve Tolleson for SS Marco Scutaro. There's definitely no reason to risk any top-flight talent.

Freddy Sanchez

#12 / Second Base / Pittsburgh Pirates

Height: 5-10

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 21, 1977

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Freddy Sanchez	86	355	45	105	28	3	6	34	20	60	5	1	.296	.334	.442

Positives: There isn't much to not like about Freddy Sanchez. He's a great contact hitter with good gap power and a history of hitting line drives, he's athletic and quick, and in spite of slowly declining defensive skills still posts an above average UZR/150 (6.3) at second base. Solid instincts and great mechanics should keep him a capable defender for the next two or three years, even if his range falls off.

Negatives: The Twins aren't just bidding with the Pirates, they're bidding against a lot of other teams as well. There's room to add payroll, but that $8 million dollar option (which will vest at 600 plate appearances since he was an All-Star, so just 218 to go) for 2010 will still play a large part in any negotiation. And no matter how that monetary issue is handled, Sanchez will still cost the Twins a good two or three pieces off the farm.

Deal Maker/Breaker: LEN III reported yesterday that "that not only is [Sanchez] willing to play for the Twins, he’s willing to stick around for awhile. And while he’ll make at least $8 million next year, it probably won’t cost that much to extend him a year or two." So there are a number of ways to go about the financial aspect of this deal and how it plays out over the long term, and how that situation is handled will tell how many prospects Minnesota would have to send the other way. Additionally, a lot will depend on what other teams are offering for Sanchez, and whether or not the Twins are willing to pay the inflated price.

My ideal world: OF Joe Benson, P Tyler Robertson, IF Alexi Casilla, OF David Winfree for 2B Freddy Sanchez; including a window to negotiate a contract extension through 2012, Sanchez's age-34 season.

Orlando Cabrera & Mike Wuertz

It sounds like the Twins are still working on getting these two as a pair from Oakland. We've gone over the positives, negatives and possible deal makers and breakers before, so we'll just jump to the most worthless and subjective portion of my propaganda pool...

My ideal world: 3B/OF Luke Hughes, IF Trevor Plouffe/Steve Tolleson, P Kevin Mulvey, OF Chris Parmelee

Be sure to stop back periodically, and we'll post updates as they come in.

What to do with second base?

cmathewson — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

"What? Am I supposed to pick this up?" Minnesota Twins second baseman Nick Punto (8) watches a ground ball off the bat of Kansas City Royals' Mark Teahen during the fourth inning of a baseball game in Kansas City, Mo., Monday, June 29, 2009. Teahen was safe at first. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

Browse more photos »

With Alexi Casilla's banishment to Upstate New York, the Twins are faced with a tough decision.

We all thought Casilla was the second baseman of the future until he caught Luis Rivas disease and Gardy, who suffered through years of Rivas, has no patience left for lackadaisical play. Add to that the last things Casilla said to Gardy on his way out the door. It's not published, but you can read something like this between the lines.

Gardy: You go down there and learn to play with more consistent focus and awareness. When the scouts say you're ready, I'll bring you back up.

Casiila: I don't need more tine in the minors Man. I'n ready right now to be the guy.

Gardy: No you're not.

Casilla: I'n the best second baseman in this system.

Gardy: Not right now you're not.

Casilla: You don't know jack.

Gardy: Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out of my office.

So Casilla might never be back with this team as long as Gardy is manager. What do the Twins do in the post-Casilla era?

Internal options

Nick Punto: Punto is the guy of the present. But he is no long-term solution. He's brutally inconsistent with the bat. One week he'll be right on the ball, taking pitchers pitches, hitting hitters pitches on a line. Then he'll get Nicked up and spend a week on the non-DL. When he returns, he's back to the strike-out prone, pop-up machine he's been through the majority of his career. And that's just with the bat. On the bases, he's a train wreck. In the field, he's nothing if his range is limited because his freewheeling ways make him very error prone. But his UZR/150 numbers this year (and in past years at second) are horrible (-17.4). The sooner this guy lands on the bench everyday, the better off the Twins will be. He might be going on the DL anyway with a back injury after Jose Guillen's dirty slide spilled him yesterday.

Matt Tolbert: I don't want to waste keystorkes on this guy.187/.279/.236/.514 -27.7 UZR/150.

Michael Cuddyer: Don't laugh. Gardy has actually brought his name up as a possibility. That indicates how desperate he is for a solution at second. Cuddyer at second would solve the outfield log jam. And he hits like a competent second baseman. But judging from his three errors in just four games at first base and -47.7 UZR/150 in the infield this year, he's not a serious option for second. At first, at least he has the line to constrain his range. At second, he'd be range challenged in two directions.

Luke Hughes: Scouts and numbers say his bat is ready now. But his defense is nowhere near ready. Second base is his best position by the numbers (just using errors by position in the minors). Still, the Twins have been trying to convert him to third base because of organizational need. With Danny Valencia passing him on the depth chart at third, he could move back to second, but he would need a half season of reps over there before he might be ready. The Twins don't have a half season.

Steven Tolleson: Tolleson is the best hitting second base prosect the Twins have had since Todd Walker. He's hitting .320/.385/.443/.828 for Rochester, splitting time between second base and left field. If he was anywhere near Knoblauch in the field, he'd be up here. He's always had high error totals throughout the minors. And his range is said to be average. Still, he's worth a 15-day tryout whle Punto rests his back and bruised ribs. If he shows promise in the field, he could be the guy.

The problem is, the Twins are reluctant to trust the position to a rookie during a pennant race. They might be forced to do it if Punto needs to go on the DL. But my sense is Punto will keep telling Gardy he's ready and Gardy will keep running him out there. And Punto will continue to go 0-fer with Ks, DPs and pop-ups. That would be a shame because, at 25, Tolleson deserves a shot sooner rather than later.

External Options

Freddy Sanchez: A career .302/.338/.424/.762 hitter in eight seasons at the majors, mostly for Pittsburgh, Sanchez is the kind of player the Twins need if they're to make a run for a pennant. The Twins are great at the top of the order and horrible at the bottom. Second base is the chief cause of the suckitude. Casilla (.467 OPS), Tolbert (.514), and Punto (.543) have combined to be the worst hitting second base position in the league.

If you upgrade to Sanchez, you could drop Brendan Harris down to the bottom of the order where he belongs. Harry's a good hitter, but he's not top-of-the-order material in a perfect world. Sanchez, on the other hand, is an ideal number two hitter. He has excellent contact skills and an inside-out approach that tends to confound defenses and move runners along.

In the field, Sanchez has average range by the numbers with an excellent arm and good footwork around the bag. He'd be an upgrade defensively over any of the players in the system.

What it would take to get him is an open question. The Pirates are rebuilding around speed, so it seems Casilla is one piece in a two- or three-piece move. If a two-piece move, I could see a pitcher such as Anthony Swarzak or Kevin Mulvey being the other piece. If a three-piece move, it could include a couple of fringe prospects such as Philip Humber and Jason Pridie. The contract is not really an issue for a team that is well under budget this year. He's set to make $6.1 million this year, $3 million prorated. And this is no one-year rental. There is an $8 million club option with a $600,000 buyout. Even if the Twins decided to buy him out, he's a likely Type A free agent.

Felipe Lopez: Lopez is another good contact hitter who could fit in nicely in the number 2 hole and at second base. He's currently hitting .304/.358/.413/.771 for Arizona. Those are career year numbers for him, so I wouldn't expect him to keep up this clip for the whole season. In the field, he would be an upgrade over every other bat in the system (4.4 UZR 150). From a contract perspective, He's strictly a one-year rental at about $1.75 million for the rest of the year, whereupon he should become a Type B free agent.

I think Lopez should be Plan B in case they can't work out a deal for Sanchez. He's having a career year, which indicates regression, especially at his age (29). For this reason, acquiring him would be easier than Sanchez. Perhaps Casilla and a fringe pitcher would do.

Poll

Who should be the Twins second baseman in the second half this year?

Nick Punto

47 votes

Matt Tolbert

16 votes

Steven Tolleson

100 votes

Freddy Sanchez

282 votes

Felipe Lopez

21 votes

466 votes | Poll has closed

Jason Pridie Returns to the Bigs

Jesse — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 18:57:30 -0000

The question becomes: what are we expecting?

Back on January 3, 2008, I asked a serious question in the wake of Torii Hunter's departure: Is Jason Pridie an option in center field? It wasn't a question which, at the time, could be answered with a simple yes or no...if only because we didn't really know who he was. Fast-forward 18 months, and we have a much better idea.

Pridie is still just 25, which surprises me for some reason. He spent part of '07, most of '08 and all of '09 (so far) in triple-A, and the biggest problem is that he's not getting any better. For years the problem hasn't just been the strikeouts, it's been contact, period. It's been like a crap shoot. Because if Pridie does make contact, he does it pretty well and hits his share of line drives (at least since 2007). Those line drives have, from '07 through '08, translated into solid BABIP numbers, and his triple slash lines have reaped the benefits. But when Pridie doesn't make contact, which is often, all those hard-hit balls are forgotten in one quick glance at a disappointing batting average. Add in his being allergic to walks, and what we're left with is a toolsy outfielder whose moderate potential has never been reached.

He's done better in June, hitting .297/.338/.422; if that was his line on the season, it wouldn't be a bad contribution from a center fielder who can also play in the corners. And to be fair, 50 percent of his balls in play were line drives in April, and yet his BABIP was simply above average at .317 instead of the outlandish number the statistical means insist it could have been.

Additionally, Pridie has cut down on his strikeouts a little bit this season, ending just 14.5% of his plate appearances with that result as opposed to the cringe-worthy 25.2% from last summer. But he still doesn't walk. And the power potential he flashed in '07 in Durham, and in parts last year with Rochester, has simply vanished. And really, if the choice is between a .737 OPS ('08) and a .616 OPS ('09), then I'll gladly take all those hilarious K's.

It's hard to know what to say about Jason, other than what's been said by every other baseball nerd to who cares to look at advanced metrics. Scouts have always said he has the talent, and at times he's shown it; he's just undisciplined. And if higher-ceiling and talent guys like Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young are struggling with discipline at a tougher level, then how should we be judging Jason?

The single biggest advantage to calling up Pridie, as opposed to Luke Hughes or Casilla (again) or better hitting Red Wings outfielders like David Winfree or Dustin Martin, is that Jason can play all three outfield positions. This means there's someone to spell Gomez over the next few days if he needs it, and in late-game situations there's a mobile defender to put in place of Young or Jason Kubel. Pridie's expected value and contributions will stem from those two points.

Anything else should be gravy.

Red Wings Minor League Equivalency

Jesse — Mon, 25 May 2009 16:25:02 -0000

Just for fun this morning, before we take on the Red Sox this afternoon.

Using this MLE calculator, we can translate minor league lines to get an idea of how that exact same perfromance would translate in MLB. We'll do this from time to time as the season progresses, so for now it's just a taste test. We'll check out a few of Rochester's biggest boppers.

Luke Hughes

Split	League	Team	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
Actual	IL (AAA)	Red Wings	134	19	35	8	2	6	28	18	37	.261	.346	.485
Equivalent	MLB	Twins	138	15	31	7	2	5	22	14	39	.224	.297	.400

Justin Huber

Split	League	Team	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
Actual	IL (AAA)	Red Wings	93	13	27	3	2	3	15	9	20	.290	.368	.462
Equivalent	MLB	Twins	95	10	24	3	2	2	12	7	21	.251	.303	.386

Alexi Casilla

Split	League	Team	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
Actual	IL (AAA)	Red Wings	64	9	21	0	3	0	7	5	11	.328	.377	.422
Equivalent	MLB	Twins	65	7	19	0	2	0	5	4	12	.285	.326	.357

Catching Up: Twinkie Town's 2009 Top 10 Prospects

Jesse — Wed, 13 May 2009 12:00:17 -0000

A review of the organization's top ten prospects, as voted by you: the Twinkie Town faithful. A full list can be found by scrolling down and checking out the left side content bar.

#10: Luke Hughes, 3B/DH
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Minor League Experience: 7 seasons
Age: 24

Hughes has had a great start to the year, batting .277/.378/.505 over his first 101 at-bats. His five homers give him the team lead, with four coming off southpaws. In fact, so far this season Hughes has destroyed left-handed pitching. Unfortunately the fielding doesn't seem to be improving much, as he's already been charged with eight errors. While it's hard to judge anything of his defense by the 'E' stats, committing eight of them already isn't a good thing. Minor League Splits values his third base defense at -4 runs against league average. Right now his value is still all offense, and because he's a fly-ball hitter he's going to have to start making better contact if he's going to stay productive. A 15.6% line-drive rate doesn't do him favors, and he's popping up too often.

#9: Deolis Guerra, RHP
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 20

Guerra's had an up and down start to the season, having had the bottom drop out in two of his starts. He's a ground-ball pitcher, but at times he can be susceptible to getting rocked, particularly by right-handed hitters. The fastball isn't there right now, which was supposed to be a big plus. It's early, and he's only just turned 20 in April, but he needs to turn some sort of a corner and get the number of base runners under control.

#8: Tyler Robertson, LHP
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 21

Robertson, like Guerra, has been sabotaged by a pair of bad starts. Also like Guerra he's getting a lot of ground balls this year, which should do him favors if his defense can convert them into outs. There will always be worries about those mechanics, but as long as he produces good results those mechanics will continue to take a back seat. His low line-drive rate (14.1%) suggests some luck by the hitters (.310 BABIP), but continuing to pitch well should balance those numbers out.

#7: Anthony Swarzak, RHP
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 23

Anthony is proving he belongs at triple-A after a somewhat curious promotion late last year. Good strikeout rate, miniscule home run rate, good walk rate...he's earned the 1.70 ERA. Even the 2.85 FIP insists he's pitching well. Right now he's having success against hitters on both sides of the dish, and an impressive split is how effective he's been when his team is behind. As a starter that's an issue because he's already allowed his team to fall into a hole, but that's going to happen. Besides, to this point he's been good overall regardless. Being able to stymie the opposition in order to give your offense a chance is a good thing. If any one of the Minnesota starting rotation faulters, Swarzak should be the replacement.

#6: Jose Mijares, LH RP
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 24

The first (and only) member of the list to make it to The Bigs, Mijares had a short stint in Rochester in April. Over 6.1 innings he struck out four, walked one and allowed a pair of hits. Nobody scored. Since joining the Twins he's retired eight on strikes in just six innings, but on occasion has trouble locating his fastball. His last two outings have produced runs, the last being horribly painful. Luckily he's still one of the bullpen's best options, even though that statement is all relative right now, which means he's not in danger of being sent away any time soon.

#5: Wilson Ramos, C
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 21

Luckily Ramos' value is defensive, and he's a catcher, which means the .269/.289/.344 line isn't causing anyone to doubt his potential. Still, he's generally hit better than this in his time on the farm, so hopefully he'll be able to adjust to the harder competition he's seeing at double-A. He's done a bit better over the last 10 days, pounding out a .324 average. In the minor league depth chart, he sits behind only Drew Butera. And Jose Morales, if you want to count him. Which we probably should.

#4: Angel Morales, OF
Current Team: Beloit Snappers (A)
Minor League Experience: 3 seasons
Age: 19

It's been a slow start for Angel, who's still striking out at least once a game but is doing it so far this year without the production. The .587 OPS is very un-Morales as we know him to this point. Versus righties or lefties it's all been a struggle. We'll lean on his age and lack of experience in his first experience out of the Rookie Leagues, and hopefully as the season progresses we see some positive steps. Right now, from how things look, I wouldn't expect him to make it to Fort Myers before next year.

#3: Aaron Hicks, OF
Current Team: Currently in extended spring training
Minor League Experience: 1 season
Age: 19

Hicks is getting a little extra work in, which isn't a bad thing. The organization is stocked with talent at the outfield position at this point in time, which allows him the luxury of being able to have this time without feeling pressured to get onto a squad and put up impressive numbers like he did last summer. Most likely he'll repeat a short season in the Rookie League, barring an injury or a performance so bad that someone gets the axe. Still, after hitting .314/.401/.479 for the GCL Twins last summer, he'll be one to follow closely once he starts playing.

#2: Ben Revere, OF
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 3 seasons
Age: 21

The speedy contact hitter is already off to a good start, reaching base at a .377 clip in his first sting at high-A ball. The slugging is way down, at just .350, which might be closer to what you'd expect of a guy with his tools than the .461 and .497 numbers he posted in '07 and '08 in lower levels. He's still an extreme ground-ball hitter, and he's hitting a bit over his head versus southpaws so far; a .417 BABIP with onlly a 12.5% line drive rate just isn't sustainable, even for a guy with his speed. Still, the tools are there, and he's already stolen 15 bases in 29 games. If he can leg out a few more doubles, which he likely will as he adjusts to better pitching, his numbers will improve and we might even see him in New Britain by the time summer ends.

#1: Danny Valencia, 3B
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 24

Like his hot-corner counterpart in Rochester, Valencia is off to a hot start. The walks are there, the power is there, and so is the defense. He's a bit of a ground-ball hitter, but when he gets ahold of one, he really gets ahold of it. His three homers in 84 at-bats aren't impressive, but they tie him for the squad lead and he has plenty of other extra-base hits to supplement his production. Right now all the power is coming against right-handed pitchers, so if he learns to hit southpaws a bit better, his numbers will go through the roof. The line of .298/.404/.524 is fantastic, and if Hughes gets a call at any point this season it wil mean a promotion for Valencia as well. It's been a slow but steady climb for Daniel, but he seems to be almost a sure shot to breach the majors next summer if not this September. He's a great choice for the organization's number one prospect.

Luke Hughes VS Danny Valencia

Jesse — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 23:45:30 -0000

Both men will get their shots at third base this spring.

...Danny Valencia turned in the defensive play of the game with a run-saving stab-and-throw to end the sixth inning.

That's from Joe Christensen's update this afternoon, following the Twins' 3-2 victory over Puerto Rico. While Valencia is currently scheduled to start the season in double-A New Britain, there's no doubt he'll be pushing Luke Hughes for the top spot for third base prospects in the Minnesota system.

Hughes, 24, is slated to be Rochester's starting third baseman this summer. He's also off to the World Baseball Classic, where a strong performance could position him for an early appearance in Minnesota this summer. The Aussie hit .319/.385/.551 in 285 at-bats for the Rock Cats in 2008 before being promoted to Rochester, where his .778 OPS wasn't too shabby for a first time around in triple-A. While his defense isn't attracting a lot of attention, over the last two seasons it's been Luke's offense that's driven him through the system.

Valencia, also 24, will probably be starting the season with the Rock Cats. Hot on the heals of Hughes, Danny's offense is even better. A .920 OPS in single-A last summer earned him a promotion to double-A, where .289/.334/.485 is a pretty good line for your first time around. He's a .305/.361/.485 career hitter in the minors, and with what he's done so far this spring, he's stock in the organization has done nothing but rise.

Looking at their career history, right now Valencia walks more and hits more extra-base hits, in spite of being the same age. The reason Hughes is currently in front of Valencia on the depth chart is because Hughes was signed as an undrafted free agent back in '02, giving him five years in the MInnesota farm system; Valencia was a 19th round draft choice in '06, giving him two years and some change in the system.

Of course, if Deibinson Romero can pick up where he left off prior to his injury last summer, he could be pushing both men for their jobs as well. So if Romero steps up his game, don't be surprised to see Hughes and Valencia battling it out for the same position while on the same club in Rochester. Right now the definition in the third base organizational depth chart is clear, but both men have an opportunity to take the proverbial bull by the horns and force the organization's hand...whether that's by promoting Valnencia to triple-A or Hughes to the big league club.

If you're into the jostling of minor league depth charts and the future of the team, this is one position battle you should definitely keep your eyes on.

Poll

Who will reach the major leagues first?

Luke Hughes

121 votes

Danny Valencia

103 votes

224 votes | Poll has closed

Twins Prospects In Baseball America's Top 100

Jesse — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 01:09:09 -0000

Who are they?

In recent seasons we've been accustomed to seeing a Twin or two sitting pretty high in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect rankings. Francisco Liriano and Joe Mauer come to mind, but even when Minnesota isn't making appearances at the top of the list they at least get quantity points. Here's how they stack up in 2009.

Aaron Hicks, OF
BA Rank: 39

via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

Baseball America estimates Hicks will breach the majors in 2011, which would make him 21 on opening day. He has the tools, and he raked with the GCL Twins in '08, but it's always easy to be optimistic when you're basing career projections off of one professional minor league season. Count me in that optimistic camp for the time being, but he's going to have to work on making better contact to keep up those good offensive numbers. As he progresses and starts to meet better pitchers and better defenses, an 8% lind drive rate isn't going to get the job done.

Ben Revere, OF
BA Rank: 59

via www.freewebs.com

Like Hicks, BA predicts a 2011 major league debut. He'd turn 23 May of that year. While Hicks currently projects as a guy who could hit almost anywhere in a batting order, Revere is a top or bottom kind of guy. His speed and on-base percentage are his most valuable assets, but he's still young and could surprise a bit as he continues to fill out. His arm strength is what really puts him a notch below Hicks, although he might just be fast enough to catch anything hit near him, in which case he won't be pressed to show off the Shannon Stewart-esque noodle too often.

Wilson Ramos, C
BA Rank: 71

via www.tigresdearagua.net

How about that--another 2011 prediction. Wilson would be just 23 still, but it certainly seems like BA expects a bit of roster turnover in the next three years. As for Ramos, he has a career line of .288/.344/.435 in three minor league seasons He's skilled and relatively polished for his age, but he'll be put to the test in New Britain this season. If he continues to excel at the dish and continues to gun down base runners, 2011 might not be too optimistc of a debut. But if he stagnates, his life on BA's prospect list may be short-lived. Hopefully his strength and ability can help off-set his aggression.

That's it, folks. There are no pitchers on the list, and only three players total. What does this mean?

There are three options--either the Minnesota farm system isn't as strong going into 2009 as it has been recently, the talent levels throughout the minor leagues are stronger across the board, or Baseball America isn't paying adequate tribute to the talent pool for our Land O Lakes organization. Or there's option number four, all of the above.

Names like Luke Hughes, Deibinson Romero, Danny Valencia, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Swarzak and Rene Tosoni come to mind, but none of them are necessarily being done a disservice by being left off this list. They're all good, or have some decent upside, but none of them are slam-dunk shoulda-been-on-the-list names, and that's the bottom line. In the prospect bell curve this isn't a top-heavy organization, and that's perfectly represented in BA's Top 100.

All thirty MLB teams were represented in the list, with the Astros, Nationals, Padres and Tigers represented just once each. The Rangers and Athletics held seven spots apiece to lead the pack, while the Marlins held second place with six spots. The Braves and the Rays tied for second by splitting ten spots between them.

Community Projection: Luke Hughes

Jesse — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 22:00:11 -0000

Leading up to Sunday when pitchers and catchers report, we'll be running community projections on the 40-man roster. Projections will be basic to make them as accessible and easy to create as possible. Up next, Luke Hughes.

2009 Age: 24
Years: Rookie

Games:
At-Bats:
Hits:
Home Runs:
Walks:
Strikeouts:
Batting Average:
On-Base Percentage:
Slugging Percentage:
Stolen Bases: