SB Nation - Eric Young Jr.

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 4

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Here is the last part of the 4 part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times. Derek provides some insight into his top 5 rankings and some early sleepers for 2010:

Fake Teams: Are there any statistics that you use to evaluate hitters or pitchers that aren't mainstream yet?

Derek Carty: Absolutely. As I've talked about a little bit already, there are some that aren't even super well-known in the sabermetric community because, well, I invented them myself and they aren't really readily available yet. I absolutely love CAPS, David Gassko's LIPS ERA is great, and True Home Runs for hitters is a favorite of mine as well. Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP is great too. And of course, things like BABIP and HR/FB and LOB% aren't really mainstream, but they are pretty well-known in the sabermetric community and are certainly important to look at.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Do you prefer auction leagues or straight draft leagues? Mixed or NL/AL-only leagues?

Derek Carty: Auction, without a doubt. It gives everyone a chance at every player and, I feel, allows you to be more creative with how you construct your team and with how you plan your strategy. I used to be a 100% in favor of mixed leagues over AL/NL-only (in theory), although LABR has swayed my opinion a bit (it was the first AL/NL-only league I ever played in). Still, I would have to lean towards something like a 14 or 15-team mixed league, given my druthers. I just feel that one or two big injuries to an AL or NL-only team can derail any hope of a championship, in some instances, and we really are in the infantile stages of trying to predict injuries, so it's not as if some of us can even gain much of a competitive advantage in the area. I was actually quite lucky in LABR this year when it came to the health of my players, which has surely colored my opinion of this league setup a bit. Aside from losing Ramon Hernandez for most of the year and Raul Ibanez, Rich Harden, and Carlos Ruiz for a few weeks, my team stayed pretty healthy. In other leagues, I wasn't as lucky. In the FSIC, for instance, Jose Reyes killed us (although we did manage to finish in second despite a Reyes/Garrett Atkins combo for our first two picks). I think a 15-team mixed league is a pretty good depth and minimizes the amount of luck involved.

Fake Teams: An early look at 2010-who is your top 5 players in NL-only leagues? AL-only leagues? Mixed?

Derek Carty: This'll have to be very early since I haven't completed my projections yet or really tried to make any 2010 predictions, but here's how I'm currently feeling (completely subjectively and without seeing some of the more in-depth numbers I like to look at).
NL: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) Ryan Braun, 5) Matt Kemp
AL: 1) A-Rod, 2) Mark Teixeira, 3) Miguel Cabrera, 4)Evan Longoria, 5) Joe Mauer
Mixed: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) A-Rod, 5) Ryan Braun

Fake Teams: If you have done this analysis, who are a few sleepers for 2010?

Derek Carty: I haven't really done this analysis yet, so I'll probably have some very different names when asked in a month or two. For now, let's go with Ian Stewart, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr., Dallas McPherson (consider him the next Russell Branyan if he finds playing time), Koji Uehara (potential Baltimore closer, though he could succeed as a SP as well), Brett Andersen, and Jorge de la Rosa. And, of course, whether someone is truly a sleeper or a value pick is entirely dependent on context. He'll only derive value if you take him in a round later than where you believe he truly belongs.

Fake Teams thanks Derek for taking the time to answer these questions for our readers.

Saturday Rockpile: Friedrich and Roling honored, Galarraga on Hall of Fame ballot, more

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:53:51 -0000

Friedrich, Roling garner MLB.com organzationaly awards | MLB.com: News
MLB.com has named their top minor leaguers for each of baseball's 30 clubs. During the preseason, they predicted Eric Young Jr. would be the Rockies' top hitter, while Jhoulys Chacin was to be the top pitcher. Things changed a bit at the end of the season, as MLB.com has gone with Christian Friedrich as the club's best pitcher and Kiel Roling as the best hitter.

Reign of Cat and Dog may hit Hall | ColoradoRockies.com: News
It's time for the BBWAA to start considering their selections for the Hall Of Fame's class of 2010. Two former Rockies - Ellis Burks and Andres Galarraga - appear on the ballot for the first time while another, Dale Murphy, stays on there for the 11th consecutive year. It's probably farfetched to say that any of these guys have a legitimate chance of getting in at any point.

Inside the Colorado Rockies " Fasano To Manage In Toronto Organization | Major League Baseball in Denver
(Hat tip to mkorpal, who posted this in the Thanksgiving comment thread.) Sal Fasano, who seemed to do a great job in mentoring young Rockies pitchers in Colorado Springs this past season, will be managing Toronto's Class A affiliate in Lansing. Congratulations to Sal, who will hopefully excel in his new role. :C

Rockies Venezuelan League Update
Good news on the VZL front for the Rockies, as it looks like Jhoulys Chacin has shown some improvement over the course of their season. Chacin went five innings and allowed just one hit and one walk and apparently displayed good control. As the author mentions, it was probably Chacin's last start of the VZL season. Also, Edgmer Escalona pitched a perfect inning in his league debut.

Carlos Gonzalez blessed by "La Chinita"
Carlos Gonzalez had a good few days in the Venezuelan League last week, as he hit .454 in 22 at-bats during "Feria de la Chinita." The blurb mentions Gonzalez injured himself sliding last weekend and had to be subbed out, but I imagine it isn't anything serious, as there has been no report from the Rockies.

Tuesday Rockpile: CHONE is back in town (not Figgins)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

CHONE doesn't buy CarGo's strong 2nd half.

Browse more photos »

The 2010 CHONE Projections have been posted. I recommend switching to wide view to see the table.

In case you're curious what would happen if Colorado opened the season with Jeff Kindel, Rex Rundgren, Daniel Mayora and Darin Holcomb in the infield, their projections (among others) are in the link. However, I filtered out the minor leaguers, and here are the projected main contributors for 2010.

Note CHONE tempers its expectations on Tulo and Cargo, which is typical for a projection system for young players. Exceeding those expectations would give the Rockies not only on-field success but offensive starpower the team lacked.

Player	Pos	Age	G	HR	RBI	SB	CS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Helton, Todd	1B	36	134	13	68	0	1	582	.284	.385	.430	.364
Young, Eric	2B	25	149	8	38	39	18	547	.276	.347	.398	.332
Barmes, Clint	2B	31	136	15	58	8	6	509	.258	.306	.420	.314
Stewart, Ian	3B	25	145	22	75	6	4	499	.263	.349	.483	.359
Iannetta, Chris	C	27	105	15	53	0	0	384	.260	.370	.465	.367
Fowler, Dexter	CF	24	124	4	31	21	11	414	.271	.365	.391	.338
Smith, Seth	OF	27	135	15	60	4	2	428	.291	.374	.489	.376
Hawpe, Brad	OF	31	144	23	86	1	2	572	.271	.365	.482	.368
Gonzalez, Carlos	OF	24	134	15	66	12	6	462	.285	.342	.478	.354
Murton, Matt	OF	28	129	10	52	5	2	438	.280	.349	.427	.343
Spilborghs, Ryan	OF	30	127	10	49	7	4	398	.271	.352	.424	.342
Tulowitzki, Troy	SS	25	142	22	80	10	8	580	.292	.369	.497	.373

Should we be surprised few outside of Colorado expected the Rockies to make the playoffs down the stretch? The Rockies won with depth, which just isn't sexy. They are projected to have great depth again in 2010, with only Clint Barmes having a below average wOBA. Their third "most valuable" hitter in 2009 came off the bench in a third of his games. The 3-4 hitters combined for 15 HR in 2008. The team's two All-Stars combined for just eight AB's in the playoffs. Th top three hitters were only 15th in WAR in MLB, behind the Padres, Nats and Mariners as well as every playoff team/contender sans Atlanta and the Giants. In addition to the team's history, is it any wonder the Rockies weren't viewed as legitimate?

The idea that Rockies pitching can be good has yet to truly sink in among casual fans, and Joe Fan/John Kruk don't have the time/desire to evaluate depths of teams. They look for starpower, and admittedly, the Rockies were a little shy in that department last season. Should we see a repeat performance from Cargo and Tulo in 2010, there may be some recognition of the mountain time zone, although truly, it was a joy to expect and then see the Rockies defy expectations down the stretch.

Links

The Rockies and Diamondbacks officially broke ground on their spring training facility in Scottsdale, Arizona yesterday. It is set to be completed approximately 435 days from now, just in time for use for the 2011 season.

As linked in the Rockpile yesterday, Juan Morillo is headed to Japan. Remember when Dan O'Dowd replaced him on the roster in April with some dude from Tampa Bay? Good move.

Patrick Saunders opines that Dexter Fowler deserved better than eighth place in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I would disagree with his assessment that this is a "banner year for rookies," but I am a bit surprised he got no more love than Gerardo Parra or Everth Cabrera.

Fangraphs awarded their 2009 Carter-Batista Award, an award given to a player whose perceived value is most inflated by RBI. The winner was rumored to be acquired by the Rockies before the season, while Bengie Molina tops the three-year leaderboard.

The Hardball Times compares Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw, noting both electric young NL West southpaws have something else in common - traffic on the basepaths. Who would you rather have on your team in 2010? Troy Patterson's answer may surprise you.

NL West in Review: 2nd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Felipe Lopez only got in a half season in the NL West, but was he good enough to be the best 2B in the division in 2009?

Browse more photos »

Introduction

Before getting to the second base rankings, I thought I would touch on a peripheral discussion on the accuracy of WAR. It is important to understand that even the WAR found at Fangraphs isn't absolute. The methodology of chosen inputs can make the final numbers vary slightly, or in some cases, drastically. The best example of this is this year's season by Ricky Nolasco, who was a 4.0 WAR pitcher from Fangraphs, but just a 1.0 WAR pitcher via Rally's historical database. The quick explanation is that Fangraphs' input is FIP, while Rally's is more based on actual runs allowed and BABIP.

In my case, I'm using Statcorner's component park factors, while Fangraphs has their own methodology for park effects. That is why some of my numbers will vary some from Fangraphs' data. For instance, I have Orlando Hudson as a 2.52 WAR second baseman, while Fangraphs has him at 2.9 WAR. Which is right? I think it's a matter of preference.

A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron wrote an article entitled WAR: It Works, which defended their methodology by finding a 0.83 correlation between a team's total WAR and final record (for comparison, Pythageorean W-L has a 0.91 correlation). So it does a decent job, but there's some understandable noise in the data.

Method

See the full methodology as explained last week. Last Monday, I omitted stolen bases and caught stealings from my value calculations. It turns out Fangraphs' positional splits are accurate to positional at-bats, and Baseball Reference's positional splits are not accurate for stolen bases and caught stealings. As it turns out, first basemen don't steal much, so that omission made practically no difference.

However, second basemen do tend employ the running game, so I did the extra legwork of utilizing ESPN.com's positional splits to extract SB/CS data. It didn't make a great deal of difference. Four teams saw their team wOBA* increase by .001, while the Rockies dropped by .001. Clint Barmes, who led all NL West 2B in caught stealings with nine, was the only prominent player to be affected, who dropped one slot in the rankings.

Read the results after the jump.

Results

No NL West team had complete personnel consistency at second base, but that didn't stop Arizona from far surpassing the rest of the division with some surprise production from their second-sackers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.298	15	49	.372	.448	.362	5.97
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	12	77	.356	.424	.347	3.19
3. Colorado	5	.231	31	98	.281	.441	.301	0.80
4. San Francisco	7	.236	17	80	.281	.329	.281	-0.26
5. San Diego	5	.246	2	58	.315	.314	.292	-1.04

Brendan Scolari's calculations had Arizona projected to be the weakest team at second base this season, but the other four teams fell in line as expected from there.

Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5.

The second base position was exceedingly interesting, in my opinion. To wit: the most valuable player was also the fifth least valuable fielder; the worst and best fielders came from the same team; the man with the third most homers was the fourth worst second baseman; and, one team had four second basemen in the top seven in the division:

There were 27 total second basemen, and you can view the complete rankings and data here in Google Docs. Here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Orlando Hudson	LAD	627	.285	9	62	.359	.420	.345	-3.7	2.52
2	Felipe Lopez	AZ	375	.305	6	25	.366	.417	.351	3.8	2.25
3	Ryan Roberts	AZ	199	.303	7	16	.374	.506	.383	2.3	1.65
4	Clint Barmes	COL	551	.238	22	69	.286	.437	.301	7.0	1.60
5	Juan Uribe	SFG	131	.274	6	15	.331	.538	.380	3.5	1.25
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
23	Edgar Gonzalez	SDP	54	.234	0	3	.315	.319	.289	-2.1	-0.17
24	Ian Stewart	COL	73	.235	8	26	.274	.632	.349	-7.5	-0.39
25	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	102	.200	1	7	.294	.256	.266	-4.1	-0.48
26	Emmanuel Burriss	SFG	220	.238	0	13	.292	.267	.265	-3.7	-0.53
27	Eugenio Velez	SFG	106	.198	1	8	.226	.287	.231	-4.7	-0.80

Saturday Rockpile: What the Rox should consider doing with Eric Young Jr.

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:09:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

3 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Eric Young, Jr. hits a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds in the sixth inning of a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

There is an agonizingly extreme shortage of Rockies-related news today, so I figured I'd dive into a topic that was explored a bit in an ESPN.com chat with Jim Callis.

Chat: Chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis - SportsNation - ESPN
Scroll down a bit and you can see that Callis thinks highly of our very own Ubaldo Jimenez. Most people do, and rightfully so. Also, when asked to compare Dee Gordon and Eric Young Jr., here's Callis' answer:

I would take Gordon because I'm not convinced Young can stay in the infield. Gordon isn't a lock to stay at shortstop but I think he'll figure it out.

That begs the question: what should the Rockies do with EY2? The good thing about the possible conundrum the club will face with the talented youngster is that he is very versatile - as he has shown the ability to play in the infield and outfield. That said, he is probably an average-to-below average defender at both spots. You have to think, though, that with more reps he will improve at one (or both) of the positions, which will increase his value.

With Garrett Atkins and Omar Quintanilla being likely non-tender candidates (not to mention the fact that Brad Hawpe will probably be on the trading block, despite what the Rockies' front office is saying at this point), the younger Young is pretty much a lock for a spot on the 25-man coming out of Spring Training in 2010. However, am I alone in thinking it may be wise to place him back in Triple-A to have him get more work at one position or the other (instead of being a super-utility guy for the big league club, as we all know Clint Barmes will be penciled in at second base in the Opening Day lineup, along with the likely trio of Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith in the outfield)? Given the Rockies' current solid outfield depth, I'd like to see him spend all of his time honing his skills in the infield, as I think his value there will be of more importance/relevance to the big league team.

I've rambled on about as much as I can regarding this subject. Now, commence the inevitable Barmes flaming/Brian Roberts trade mongering in the comments. Also, you should humor me a bit and suggest a few players who could fill EY2's spot in the unlikely (but again in my opinion, very reasonable) event of him starting the year in the Springs.

Rockies Set Rotation, Roster for NLDS and Lineup for Game 1

Jabberwocky — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 20:22:35 -0000

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

Ubaldo Jimenez will lead the Rockies' playoff rotation.

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According to Sports Illustrated, Jorge De La Rosa will not be available for the NLDS. As such, here's the Rockies' NLDS rotation:

Ubaldo Jimenez,
Aaron Cook
Jason Hammel

It appears that Jason Marquis will be used out of the bullpen during the first three games, meaning that the Rockies seem to be planning to have Jimenez go in game 4 on short rest and Cook in game 5 on regular rest. The possibility still remains that Marquis could start game 4, though no decision has been made on that. Likely if the Rockies are up 2-1 Marquis would start and if they are down 2-1 Jimenez would go.

Jim Tracy on Marquis:

"I think the first two-thirds of the season were exceptional," Tracy said. "Right now he's not throwing the ball quite in the same manner. And to ignore a guy that has thrown the ball as well as Jason Hammel has thrown it since the All-Star break, I really feel is doing ourselves a disservice."

According to the Denver Post, here's the playoff bullpen:

Jason Marquis
Jose Contreras
Matt Belisle
Joe Beimel
Franklin Morales
Matt Daley
Rafael Betancourt
Huston Street

Belisle basically replaced De La Rosa on the roster. The Rockies have two lefties in the pen to help with the Phillies' Ryan Howard in particular.

From the same link, here's the Game 1 Lineup and bench:

Game 1 Lineup:
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Garrett Atkins
C Yorvit Torrealba
RF Brad Hawpe
2B Clint Barmes
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

This is pretty much what I figured the lineup would be for Game 1, with Atkins and Torrealba starting. I'm pleasantly surprised to see that CarGo will make the start in lieu of Ryan Spilborghs, though I believe that the Rockies are better suited with Gonzalez in the leadoff position rather than in the two hole.

Bench:

1B/DH Jason Giambi
C Chris Iannetta
LF Seth Smith
OF Ryan Spilborghs
3B Ian Stewart
2B/OF Eric Young Jr.

EY2 has taken Quintanilla's bench spot while Giambi slides in as the extra position player.

Hat tip to Rock Oax for his FanShot.

UPDATE: Tracy Ringolsby adds his thoughts on the roster and mentions that Jose Contreras is also a viable option for the starter of Game 4.

Tuesday Rockpile: Bored Colorado Rockies force AL Central teams to battle for their amusement

RockiesMagicNumber — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:01:22 -0000

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

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As various Game 1's of the 2009 postseason draw near, Rockies fans find themselves in an interesting position: Watching 2 other teams have a play-in game for their playoff spot while already inside the gates of the postseason.

This is the second consecutive season where the Minnesota Twins have found themselves in a 1-game play in for the AL Central Division Title. Last season, Sox DH Jim Thome launched a solo shot off of Twins starter Nick Blackburn in the 7th inning which proved to be all the Sox needed, as starter John Danks pitched 8 innings of 2-hit ball, and closer Bobby Jenks pitched a scoreless 9th.

2 years ago, I hardly need remind anybody on THIS website, but just in case, Colorado rallied off of Padres closer Trevor Hoffman to win the NL Wild Card for just the second playoff berth in franchise history.

Other famous tiebreaker play-in games include the 3-game series in 1962 where the 103-win Los Angeles Dodgers were defeated by Don Larsen and the 102-win San Francisco Giants en route to an eventual 7-game loss to the New York Yankees, and a 1978 game not easily forgotten in the annals of baseball history thanks to one Yankee shortstop with a censored nickname.

via www.insidesocal.com

Feel free to discuss nostalgic baseball games while we're waiting to continue making our own history.

Meanwhile, back at the Mountain Ranch Club:

Rockies closer Huston Street revels in playoff atmosphere - The Denver Post
Boy, howdy are we glad we're in our situation and not in Philadelphia's. We have a solid setup man, closer, and while Franklin Morales may not be earning our love and favor recently, but he could still be the closer, you know. I know a lot of Santa-Claus-Booing, Battery-Throwing, Cheesesteak eaters who would love to be in our shoes in terms of back-end bullpen headcases. (For any Philly fans reading, I'm totally kidding about all that back there. I know you only throw change.)

Rockies Mailbag: Bring on the Phillies - The Denver Post
Troy Renck answers a few of the Rockies' faithful's questions regarding postseason eligibility, Dan O'Dowd's contract status, Ian Stewart's tough season, Eric Young Jr. 's baserunning troubles, and Troy Tulowitzki for Comeback Player of the Year. Why anyone asked for it for Tulo, I'll never know, but Todd Helton was far more deserving of it if it were to to a Rockies' player.

Krieger: Tough calls pressing in on Tracy - The Denver Post
Dave Krieger takes some time to talk about the Jason Marquis' role in the rotation, how to set the lineups, and pretty much everything we've been discussing ad nauseam since late last week.

Rockies' young hitters get into swing - The Denver Post

Jim Armstrong discusses Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, the bright future ahead of them, and how versatile their play has been in getting the Rockies where they are now.

This Rocktober squad better than 2007 version - The Denver Post
Patrick Saunders examines the 2009 Rockies as compared to their 2007 counterparts and points out what's good, better, and ugly. Ok not ugly.

Click past the jump for some other MLB capsules.

J.P. Ricciardi, Kevin Towers, Fredi

Baseball's employment rate took a hit this week with the unsurprising firing of embattled Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, the unexpected firing of Padres longtime GM Kevin Towers and the shocking development that Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez's job may not be completely safe.

Who Actually Had the Biggest Comeback in 2009? - Beyond the Box Score

BtBS busts out a little WAR loving to see whose 2 season swing merited them the Comeback Player of the Year award.

2009 Awards | FanGraphs Baseball

Not a lot of surprises as to who wins most of the awards here, but Fangraphs jumps the gun a bit and goes ahead and hands out their hardware before the postseason even begins.

The Giants had a few headlines today:

Giants exceeded expectations in '09 | SFGiants.com: News
The Giants' elimination from the postseason race, which became official Wednesday with Colorado's 10-5 victory over Milwaukee, did nothing to diminish the promise San Francisco showed while climbing into contention.

Free-agent-to-be Brad Penny enjoyed short stint with Giants - San Jose Mercury News
Penny enjoyed pitching on the West Coast again, and the Giants certainly enjoyed having him, despite not making the postseason.

Will Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean be retained next season? - San Jose Mercury News
I certainly hope so. I mean, I'd hate to see Tim Lincecum lose his arm to bad managing, but whatever, I want to keep winning, too.

Curtain call for best ever S.F. catcher?

Tricky article. John Shea cleverly dodges around Bengie Molina's godawful OBP while he makes a case for Bengie to be listed among all-time Giants great backstops.

Molina and the Giants need each other

Ray Rotto has some fond memories of the past 3 years of Bengie the Backstop, and ponders where the Giants could ever possibly find a studly offensive catcher to replace Bengie.....HMMMMM...

Full Count " The Market For Jason Bay

I always find it a bit tacky to discuss FAs before the postseason is over.

Rockies End 2009 Regular Season with 5-3 Loss to Dodgers

Jabberwocky — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 23:46:01 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Brad Hawpe finished the season on a high note.

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It was a game that had the atmosphere of March, not October. An assortment of regulars and scrubs played out the string on the 2009 regular season in a meaningless game 162. The Rockies fell to 92-70 (two games behind LA in the NL West), which is still their greatest record ever, and will play the Philadelphia Phillies on the road in the NLDS starting Wednesday at 12:37 MDT. Game 2 will be Thursday at 12:37 and Game 3 at Coors Field will be at 7:37.

Jason Marquis (15-13) had a rough go of it, giving up four runs in the first inning to LA's scrubs. In all, he went four innings, giving up eight hits and three walks. Six relievers (including two innings from Jason Hammel) combined to allow only one run the rest of the way.

On the other side of the coin, Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4-0 in NL) pitched very well for the Dodgers, striking out 10 Rockies in five innings. In all, Colorado struck out a staggering 17 times in the game (12 by the first five hitters in the lineup). They did manage eight hits (including Brad Hawpe's 23rd home run and Dexter Fowler's 10th triple) and even made it interesting in the ninth before falling short.

Box Score

92 - 70

Games Back: 3

Streak: Lost 2

Games Left: 0

via www.fangraphs.com

Good Cop: Hawpe (.070 WPA), Hammel (.041), Ryan Spilborghs (.039)

Bad Cop: Marquis (-.203), Eric Young Jr. (-.172), Ian Stewart (-.109)

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Rockies ride five run third inning to seventh straight win, but Jose Contreras joins list of injured.

Rox Girl — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:55:14 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Jose Contreras pitched well with the Rockies, but his stay already seems in jeopardy after he strained his right quadriceps while batting on Thursday.

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The Colorado Rockies rallied to score five runs with two outs off of Kip Wells in the third inning on Thursday afternoon and wound up beating the Cincinnati Reds, 5-1 and improve to 81-60 on the season. With the win, the Rockies draw within two games of the idle Dodgers and move 4.5 games ahead of San Francisco in the NL wild-card chase. The Rockies dominated three of the National Leagues trailing teams during their just completed homestand, finishing 9-1, including sweeps over Cincinnati and Arizona.

After Clint Barmes singled but was thrown out by Jonny Gomes trying to stretch the hit into a double, and Jose Contreras strained his right quadriceps while running to first on a groundball to shortstop, the next five Rockies reached base safely, culminating with Garrett Atkins two run home run before Brad Hawpe broke the string. Eric Young Jr. started the rally with a bunt single and stole second for the second time in the game. Carlos Gonzalez walked and was moved to third when Seth Smith singled in Young on a hanging change-up from Reds starter Wells. Both Gonzalez and Smith scored when Reds center fielder Drew Stubbs couldn't quite catch up to a deep fly ball by Jason Giambi, a missed opportunity to get out of the inning that would get exacerbated moments later when Garrett Atkins launched his ninth homerun of the season.

Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Rincon and Matt Belisle picked up for Contreras by keeping the Reds scoreless for six innings after he left, with Rincon pitching three shutout innings and striking out five to earn the win. With several starters (Contreras, Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez) going through injury issues, keeping up the winning ways on the nine game road trip that the Rockies start tomorrow night in San Diego might prove difficult, but the Rockies have built themselves a buffer over their wild card competition with the strong homestand.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Wednesday Rockpile: Rockies Coming on Strong Down the Home Stretch

Jabberwocky — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 13:52:50 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Jump around! Jump around! Jump up, jump up and get down!

View full size photo »

With their 3-1 victory last night over the Cincinnati Reds behind the dominant performances of Jason Marquis and Eric Young Jr., the Colorado Rockies are in rarified air for the franchise--19 games above .500. They once again own a three game advantage in the Wild Card race (which has quickly narrowed to Colorado and San Francisco) while LA is within range (3.5 games) with just 23 games to play. The win pushed the Rockies' record under Jim Tracy to 61-32.

The Rockies are going on a joyride down the home stretch--the Denver Post writers instruct you to sit back and enjoy it, Rockies fans (bandwaggoners are welcome). They outline ten things you should know about this Rockies squad and how they have gone from 18-28 to 79-60. It's a good primer for the uninitiated and those who need a refresher course on the 2009 Rockies.

Here is how the Rockies' playoff chances stack up as of last night. According to this simulation the Rockies are most likely to win 92 games, with most of the simulation outcomes between 90-94 victories. Even the low end of that spectrum would require only an 11-12 record down the stretch--and there's a 73.2% chance that if the Rockies were to end up with 90 wins that they would make the postseason. At the upper range (94 wins and a 15-8 record down the stretch), the division comes into play.

BP Odds: Standard (86.3%) / PECOTA (83.6%) / ELO (81.7%)

CoolStandings: 78.6% chance

What can we take away from this? These simulations, which do a great job of weighting the potential outcomes of the season, see the Rockies with an excellent chance of not only reaching the postseason, but doing it at a pace heretofore unseen in the Rocky Mountains. Heck, just by playing .500 ball the Rockies will set a franchise record for victories--and there is the potential for much more.

It's a great time to be a Rockies fan.

Injury Updates

According to Patrick Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki will likely be out a few more days with lower back pain, while Ian Stewart's back pain is not as serious. Obviously this is a blow to the Rockies, but like some have advocated, giving Tulo and Stewart some rest as the Rockies gear up for Rocktober can really pay long-term dividends for the club. Plus, if Eric Young, Jr. keeps hitting this well, the Rockies will have yet another weapon primed and ready for the postseason should they need him.

In the notes, the article mentions that Ubaldo Jimenez's hamstring feels "much, much better" and that he predicts that he will make his regular Saturday start against the Padres. Obviously this is good news for the Rockies, who would like to avoid a Tim Lincecum situation with their ace.

Thomas Harding chimes in with an article about Ian Stewart's back spasms and in it he mentions that Dexter Fowler will likely be activated for tonight's game after being evaluated by Rockies trainers and coaches.

Other Links

Franklin Morales notched his fifth save in a week last night since assuming the role with Huston Street's bicep tendonitis. Harding writes that Morales is making the closer's role his own. My opinion for next year is that Morales should be a starter--even as a dominant closer, Morales would be less valuable to the team than as a middle of the rotation pitcher--and Morales has the potential to be a number two guy, which is much more valuable.

The Rockies are inviting your votes for the Top Nine Rockies ever (by best hitting seasons) on 9/9/09. I'll have my say on this in a couple of weeks when I finish my WAR Lords series, but this list is...inadequate.

Finally, here's some power rankings that diss Bruce Bochy for those of you who like that sort of thing.