SB Nation - Steffan Wilson

Probably misusing MLE: Where could the Brewers have done better?

KLSnow — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Looking for some idle speculation on the first Brewer-free Sunday afternoon since February? Here's something to play with.

Because of Jeff's brilliant work over at Minor League Splits, we can take any Brewer above rookie ball's minor league stats and get their MLE (major league equivalent), a baseline estimate of how they would have performed in the major leagues this season.

So without further adieu, here's a look at how Brewer minor leaguers might have performed in the majors in 2009, and how it compares to the players the Brewers actually used in their place.

Catcher

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Jonathan Lucroy	Huntsville (AA)	.267/.377/.416	.219/.307/.327	.634
Angel Salome	Nashville (AAA)	.288/.338/.420	.249/.285/.342	.627
J.R. Hopf	Huntsville (AA)	.249/.318/.363	.206/.258/.291	.549
Corey Kemp	Wisconsin (A-)	.269/.364/.379	.182/.239/.245	.484
Carlos Corporan	Nashville (AAA)	.217/.262/.285	.192/.230/.250	.480

Brewers used: Jason Kendall, who hit .241/.331/.305 (.636 OPS), and Mike Rivera, who hit .228/.326/.342 (.668 OPS)

This is likely the most obvious position where you can make a solid argument that one of the minor leaguers should have played over the guy the Brewers trotted out there. Kendall had a nice finish to 2009, batting .271/.370/.391 after August 7, but still only out OPS'ed the hypothetical performance of Jonathan Lucroy by two points, with Angel Salome not far behind him.

Beyond Lucroy and Salome, it's a long way down to the next level, though. Corey Kemp's 2009 performance was pretty impressive in Wisconsin, but he's easily the third best catcher in the system above rookie ball right now, and he's still a long way away.

Follow the jump for the other positions!

First Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Joe Koshansky	Nashville (AAA)	.218/.319/.441	.189/.267/.358	.625
Erick Almonte	Nashville (AAA)	.295/.367/.365	.253/.307/.301	.608
Kevin Melillo	Huntsville (AA)	.249/.344/.392	.207/.280/.309	.589
Steffan Wilson	Brevard Co. (A+)	.272/.352/.420	.208/.266/.308	.574
Brock Kjeldgaard	Wisconsin (A-)	.248/.340/.454	.167/.221/.278	.499

Clearly, none of these guys are even comparable to Prince Fielder, who posted a 1.014 OPS this season.

In fact, the complete lack of a viable first baseman in the upper levels of the minors is a little startling. If something were to happen to Fielder, the best internal options to replace him would almost certainly be in the big leagues now: Mat Gamel and/or Casey McGehee.

With that said, Steffan Wilson's performance in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is notable, and Brock Kjeldgaard had a decent offensive season overshadowed by the fact that he led his league in strikeouts for the second straight season.

Second Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Hernan Iribarren	Nashville (AAA)	.307/.360/.396	.269/.310/.335	.645
Shane Justis	Huntsville (AA)	.271/.339/.376	.225/.278/.309	.587
Eric Farris	Brevard Co. (A+)	.302/.344/.388	.238/.270/.304	.574
Brett Lawrie	Wisconsin (A-)	.275/.342/.438	.192/.232/.282	.514

These are the only four players above rookie ball who played a full season with second base as their primary position. The Brewers used Rickie Weeks (.857 OPS) and Felipe Lopez (.810 OPS) primarily at second, and obviously there's no comparison.

The upside is pretty low among the upper level guys: Iribarren had a nice season in AAA, but likely projects as little more than a utility/backup type in the majors. 2009 was Justis' first season as a Brewer. He's 26 years old in AA.

With that said, there's a lot of upside in the lower levels. Eric Farris had a very good season for Brevard County, and added 70 steals in 76 attempts. With that said, he's been leapfrogged in the organization by Brett Lawrie, who continues his rapid ascent toward the big leagues.

Third Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Adam Heether	Nashville (AAA)	.300/.398/.506	.256/.334/.409	.743
Mat Gamel	Nashville (AAA)	.281/.368/.479	.242/.309/.388	.697
Taylor Green	Huntsville (AA)	.267/.344/.372	.220/.276/.308	.584
Zelous Wheeler	Brevard Co. (A+)	.263/.365/.383	.199/.273/.283	.556
Juan Sanchez	Wisconsin (A-)	.249/.308/.318	.172/.207/.221	.428

The Brewers used Casey McGehee (.859 OPS), Craig Counsell (.766 OPS), Bill Hall (.606 OPS) and Mat Gamel (.760 OPS) at third.

Behold Adam Heether. While most of the talk about Brewer minor leaguers this season revolved around guys like Alcides Escobar, Gamel, Salome, Lucroy and Lawrie, Heether quietly outhit all of them. And while Craig Counsell had an incredible and unlikely bounce back season, Heether's MLE line is nearly comparable. He also played five positions this season to keep his bat in the lineup while Mat Gamel played third.

Behind him and Gamel, Taylor Green had a season to forget, and Zelous Wheeler's ability to get on base made him valuable in the Manatees' lineup. Sanchez was one of the last players drafted in the minor league phase of last year's Rule 5 draft, and played all over the diamond for Wisconsin and Brevard Co. despite never having played above the Gulf Coast League.

Shortstop

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Alcides Escobar	Nashville (AAA)	.298/.351/.411	.259/.301/.345	.646
Sergio Miranda	Brevard Co. (A+)	.297/.355/.380	.229/.272/.292	.564
Yohannis Perez	Huntsville (AA)	.262/.314/.353	.221/.259/.287	.546
Michael Garciaparra	Huntsville (AA)	.216/.302/.261	.184/.249/.223	.472
Brent Brewer	Brevard Co. (A+)	.226/.290/.291	.176/.224/.231	.455

The Brewers used J.J. Hardy (.659 OPS) and Alcides Escobar (.701 OPS)

Alcides Escobar's AAA performance and J.J. Hardy's service time status combined to be just enough to get Escobar into the big leagues for good back in August, and we'll see what happens from there.

Meanwhile, there's not much in the system behind Escobar. The next viable shortstop prospect behind him may very well be 2009 draft pick Josh Prince, who hit .263/.373/.313 between Helena and Wisconsin this season and stole 38 bases in 50 attempts. The Brewers have to be close to running out of patience with Brent Brewer, who repeated Brevard Co. in 2009 and was actually significantly worse in his second attempt.

Outfielders

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Brendan Katin	Nashville (AAA)	.244/.306/.506	.214/.262/.413	.675
Drew Anderson	Huntsville (AA)	.290/.368/.439	.241/.303/.350	.653
Logan Schafer	Brevard Co. (A+)	.312/.374/.441	.242/.288/.335	.623
Caleb Gindl	Brevard Co. (A+)	.284/.366/.469	.217/.277/.345	.622
Adam Stern	Huntsville (AA)	.280/.350/.374	.233/.288/.303	.591
John Raburn	Huntsville (AA)	.263/.370/.345	.218/.301/.267	.568
Chuck Caufield	Huntsville (AA)	.248/.312/.337	.210/.259/.280	.539
Lee Haydel	Brevard Co. (A+)	.278/.307/.343	.219/.241/.262	.503
Freddy Parejo	Huntsville (AA)	.239/.280/.314	.204/.237/.259	.496
Michael Vass	Wisconsin (A-)	.240/.307/.384	.164/.204/.249	.453

The Brewers used Ryan Braun (.938 OPS), Mike Cameron (.795), Corey Hart (.753), Frank Catalanotto (.728) and Jody Gerut (.672) in the outfield this season. And if they'd had to dig much farther into the organizational depth, it likely would have been a problem. Brendan Katin can mash a mistake, but his exceptionally low plate discipline (35 walks, 164 strikeouts, .305 OBP) will likely keep him from ever being a serious prospect.

Meanwhile, the top two outfielders in the Brewer system might both have played for Brevard County this season, as Logan Schafer won the FSL batting title and Caleb Gindl provided the power behind the Brewers' most successful affiliate this season. Among the top prospects, Schafer is also the only true center fielder: Adam Stern also played primarily in center this season, but was terrible defensively.

Lorenzo Cain, meanwhile, had a terrible 2009 season, and didn't even make the top ten to appear on this list. Before suffering a knee injury and after returning, Cain posted a .213/.287/.317 line between multiple levels this season, posting a .448 MLE OPS. Hopefully Cain reports to camp healthy next spring and prepared for a huge bounce back season.

BCB Interview: CF Erik Miller

battlekow — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:00:09 -0000

I don't hear much about Erik Miller, but surprisingly, he'd heard some about me. Before I could even ask him something, the 17th-round 2007 draftee started talking, and as you'll see, we talked for awhile. Of all the interviews I've done, I think this was my favorite so far, and not just for the mild ego-trip.

EM: I've read a couple of your articles.

BCB: Oh yeah? Which ones?

EM: I read the one on [Cutter] Dykstra and [Erik] Komatsu a couple days ago.

BCB: What'd you think?

EM: I liked 'em. I always like reading interviews of other players.

BCB: Thanks. You're the first guy to have heard of me. Did you google it, or did someone show you?

EM: No way, you're all over Brewerfan and Google. I stumbled upon Dykstra's from Google, I think.

BCB: You read Brewerfan?

EM: My dad does. He loves reading about what's going on, so every now and then I'll go and see what people are saying.

BCB: Does he post?

EM: No, he always talks about it but never does.

BCB: I'll have to make sure I only say good things about you in the future!

EM: (laughs) No worries, I'll just have to play well so you can't say anything bad. (laughs)

BCB: Actually, I can only ever remember reading positive things, mostly people waiting for you to make your debut this season.

EM: Yeah, I broke my hand right at the end of extended [spring training].

BCB: Is it still bothering you at all?

EM: No, not at all. My wrist is still a little weak from being in the cast, but it's getting better.

BCB: I bet you could have a long conversation with Rickie Weeks about weak wrists. Brad Nelson, too. He had his hamate out years ago and supposedly it's only just now feeling 100%.

EM: Oh man, that's not good. Hey, did you recently interview Eric Fryer?

BCB: Nope, I'd love to though. Are you friends with him?

EM: Yeah, he was in extended for a bit.

BCB: He's blown up this year, caught everyone by surprise.

EM: Yeah, tell me about it. He's doing awesome.

BCB: You might be remembering his name from Steffan Wilson's interview. They're roommates on the road.

EM: Ah, that's what it was. I just read that last night.

BCB: All the interviews are collected in one place on brewcrewball.com, if you want to read any more. On the left-hand sidebar, there's a heading labeled "Interviews".

EM: Sweet, I'll have to go check out the site. We get a lot of downtime after the games, so it's nice to have something to do. (laughs)

BCB: You guys had a hell of a game tonight.

EM: Yeah, we play really well against Ogden. I wish we could have played the same against Orem.

BCB: It would have been nice if you could have snapped their winning streak. They lost tonight, though.

EM: Dang, who beat 'em? I wanted us to be the team to take them down.

BCB: Missoula.

EM: No way! How the heck did that happen?

BCB: Somehow Missoula and their .238 winning percentage got it done.

EM: (laughs) Yeah, that's pretty wild.

BCB: So, how exactly did your hand get broken?

EM: We were playing the Mariners, and I was hitting against a side-armed righty, and he threw an inside fastball that tailed in and hit off my right two knuckles.

BCB: Which bones did you break?

EM: The fourth metacarpal. The one in the hand that goes to your ring finger.

BCB: People tabbed you as a sleeper coming out of the draft last year. I think your scouting report on Brewerfan said "an exciting blend of speed and power". How would you describe your game?

EM: Well, I pretty much just try to utilize my speed as much as I can. My goal is to get on base and get myself in scoring position as fast as I can so the guys behind can drive me in. Same as on defense; I play center field, so my speed plays well in tracking down balls in the gaps and covering all that ground.

BCB: So you don't consider yourself a power hitter?

EM: No, not yet at least. They always say power eventually comes with time.

BCB: You said your goal is to get on base. Do you get into statistical analysis at all? You know, "a walk is as good as a single", emphasizing on-base percentage over batting average?

EM: Not really. The situation will dictate what needs to happen. If I just need to get on base, I'll try and drop a bunt down, or if we know the pitcher is kind of wild, then I'll try to work the count and draw a walk, where that saying would come into play.

BCB: At what point in an at-bat does the idea of trying to coax a walk enter your mind?

EM: Sometimes before I even step to the plate. If I'm leading off an inning, I'll watch the pitcher and see if he's locating or if he's wild. If he can't throw a strike in his warm-up pitches then I'll make him prove to me he can throw one in the game.

BCB: Last season, you only got a chance to play in a couple games—oh wait, I lied. I'm looking at your stats this year from Arizona.

EM: (laughs) Yeah, let's not look at those.

BCB: (laughs) Lots of zeroes. You've been hot lately, though. Is it because your wrist keeps getting stronger, or is there another reason?

EM: I'd have to say it's a mixture of getting stronger and just getting more at-bats and more work in before the games. Paco [Martin, Helena's hitting coach] and I have been working hard trying to get my bat speed going again and just ironing out all the little things in my swing and my approach that weren't quite right.

BCB: When you debuted last year, did you feel like having played in a wood-bat community college league gave you a leg up on other players that were used to metal bats?

EM: Yeah, I did. I felt really comfortable with a wood bat going into the season having just come off my college season. Unfortunately, my results weren't there, but I guess that's just part of the process of getting better.

BCB: Why did you decide to go to Scottsdale [Community College] rather than a four-year school?

EM: Well, out of high school I didn't have any offers from D-I schools and didn't get drafted, so I decided to try and walk on to a juco team, and everything kind of fell into place from there.

BCB: Were you hoping to get drafted out of high school?

EM: Yeah, I thought it would have been cool playing pro ball right after high school, but I honestly wasn't ready, and I'm glad I made the decision that I did.

BCB: Did you have any contact with any teams that year? I mean, did you expect to get taken?

EM: No, not at all. I was just a kid dreaming of the big leagues. (laughs)

BCB: Where did you expect to go in the draft last year?

EM: Anywhere from the 5th [round] to the 12th or so. Or at least that's where I wanted to go.

BCB: So you were a little disappointed then?

EM: At first I was a little disappointed, but my scout came over that night and talked with me, and we got everything figured out and done that night.

BCB: So I'm pretty sure you left out the most important reason you went to Scottsdale: You wanted to be a Fighting Artichoke.

EM: (laughs) Yeah, we called it the Artichoke Nation! I can't tell you how much crap I've gotten because of that mascot. (laughs)

BCB: Did anyone ever point out to them that it looks a little like a certain drug of abuse? Let's just say it's a good thing Jeremy Jeffress didn't go there.

EM: (laughs) Yeah, it's been known that Artie the Artichoke looks like he should be hanging out with Cheech and Chong.

BCB: Where can I get an Artie the Artichoke hat?

EM: I don't know, maybe eBay or something, 'cause I sure don't have one.

BCB: You didn't save yours? Oh man, I would have treasured my Fighting Artichokes hat. So where does that nickname come from? Seems like a bad idea for a sports team—tailor-made to be called the "Chokes" when you lose.

EM: Well, we made sure we didn't lose much. It's actually a funny, weird story, but I don't know if we want to go into all that. (laughs) Did you know the original colors were like pink and green, I think they were?

BCB: That's horrible. They must have been smoking Artie when they came up with that.

EM: Yeah, brutal, but that was back in the day.

BCB: So, when you're not playing ball, what do you like to do?

EM: I'm a pretty active guy. I go hunting with my dad and friends of the family, fishing, hiking, pretty much anything outdoors.

BCB: Playing in Helena is probably a dream for you then—I hear the fly fishing is great.

EM: Yeah, definitely. We're going on our next off day to go fishing, so I'm pretty excited for that.

BCB: Who do you fish with there?

EM: Chris Dennis and my roommate, Efrain Nieves.

BCB: Hey, did you ever play against Sandra Day O'Connor [High School] when you were in high school?

EM: Nope

BCB: The Brewers drafted a kid out of there this year.

EM: Yeah, Maverick [Lasker]. He's a good kid. I met him when I was rehabbing my hand.

BCB: Yeah, he's got a stress fracture in his back. Doesn't sound like an injury I'd like to have.

EM: Yeah, I talked to him a couple nights ago, and he said he was all better and supposed to throw this week.

BCB: Well that's good news. So, if you had to name one guy on the team that you were sure was going to make the big leagues, who would it be?

EM: That's tough. Komatsu is a great all-around player who is very consistent, so I'd say him and Wily Peralta. The kid throws absolute gas and has a good slider to boot, so if he stays healthy and keeps improving, no doubt he should be a big leaguer.

BCB: Do you think he'll stay in the pen, or do you think the organization will move him to the rotation at some point to get the most out of his arm?

EM: I think he's a perfect closer. Comes in to throw it by three guys and win a game, but who knows what the organization has in store for him [Peralta started on Tuesday night].

BCB: Is Rookie ball cliquey, with so many foreign-born players, mostly Dominicans? Or does everyone mingle?

EM: Yeah, it kind of is for a while, then as the Latinos learn more English and everyone else learns more Spanish it gets easier to mingle and make friends.

BCB: Well all right, I think I've pumped you for enough info. Anything else you want people to know?

EM: There's nowhere to eat here after the games. (laughs) No, that's it man.

BCB: That's the incentive to get promoted! Or fish better.

EM: (laughs) I'll go with the first one. It was good talking to you.

BCB: Thanks, you too. Take care, and good luck.

EM: Thank you.