SB Nation - Matt Daley

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

The State of the Rockies: Post GM Meetings Update

Jabberwocky — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:42:43 -0000

In what will be a semi-weekly occurrence from now until January on Purple Row Academy, I'm going to update my post on the State of the Rockies. In other words, I will update my loyal readers (all three of you)--as well as anyone ~~stupid~~ intrepid enough to follow me after the jump as to the roster framework the Rockies are looking at as some big offseason deadlines approach.

This week, I'll be looking at what has happened thus far for the Rockies and what that means going forward. Also discussed will be the Rockies' impending decision on Rafael Betancourt's club option and how the Rockies are affected by the Elias Free Agent classifications.

By next week, we should have a better idea of what the Rockies are doing as the beginning of free agency and the deadline to set 40 man rosters approaches (November 20th).

Jump with me, brave souls, to roster-building nirvana...

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This list of players the Rockies definitely owe money to next year has become more certain, especially since Colorado declined the options of Embree and Torrealba as I predicted. Embree won't be back, but as RG wrote this morning, the door is open for Torrealba to return.

Pre-Arbitration Players

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$2,897,390

The main difference on this pre-arb chart is that I've taken out Paul Phillips, who was outrighted on Monday to clear up 40 man roster spots and looks like he'll become a free agent. That leaves a hole in the projected roster at backup catcher, perhaps to be filled by Torrealba, a cheaper in-house option such as Mike McKenry, or even a free agent catcher.

Even with the extra spot in the roster open, I'm not using Matt Murton to fill it because he would be the sixth outfielder. One of Murton, Ryan Spilborghs, and Hawpe will likely be gone--and more than one leaving is possible.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Since my previous post two weeks ago, the Rockies have avoided salary arbitration with two of their prospective cases, relievers Randy Flores and Matt Belisle. The Rockies were able to secure the services of these two relievers for less than I had predicted--Flores for $650,000 and Belisle for $850000, raises of 6.25 and 8.33% respectively. Both contracts have incentives based on number of appearances, neither of which I predict will be triggered.

With Belisle and Flores in the fold, the Rockies stil have eight potential arbitration cases to negotiate--including that of Garrett Atkins, who is almost certain to be non-tendered. The Rockies may (should) do this before the November 20th deadline for setting the 40 man roster in order to protect another prospect from the Rule 5 draft. Let's face it: Atkins won't engender much interest from teams at his current price point (minimum of $5.64 million). For that reason I'm removing him from the below chart. Bold numbers represent concrete salaries, not just predictions

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	6.25%
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	8.33%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$25,837,560	141.06%

As you can see, this is considerably less than two weeks ago, due mostly to Atkins but also because Belisle and Flores were signed more cheaply than I had anticipated. Another effect of Atkins being removed is that the Rockies' average player salary increase from arbitration is closer to reflecting the league average of 172%.

Of the seven arbitration cases that remain, I could really see De La Rosa and maybe Spilborghs getting to actual salary arbitration. De La Rosa in particular could garner a larger salary than I predict here (more in the $6.5 million range). Meanwhile, Barmes and Street seem more likley to take the multi-year contract route and might have lower salaries this year than I'd projected.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control (besides Atkins, that is) and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 22 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore the salary of three players would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $2,897,390

Arbitration Contracts: $25,837,560

Total ODP: $76,792,950

In other words, a roster that still has three spots open is about $1.6 million over last year's ODP.

The Betancourt Variable

The variables as far as the Rockies are concerned from now until November 20th are their free agents. The most pressing and important of these players to the front office is set-up man Rafael Betancourt, whose $5.4 million club option expires tomorrow.

Betancourt has reportedly already turned down a multi-year offer from the Rockies, so it is important for Dan O'Dowd to decide whether he wants the 35 year old Betancourt to be the set-up man next year or not. If the option is declined, Betancourt may still be retained, but the Rockies will have to bid against other teams for his services.

I've made my opinion on the issue of bullpen spending pretty clear--I believe that bullpen performance is highly variable, very fungible, and an inefficient use of salary dollars. Obviously many people disagree with me on this, but I'd prefer the Rockies to bring back Jose Contreras as a combo set-up man rotation insurance.

As Thomas Harding notes, the Rockies are interested in re-signing Contreras and Joe Beimel, who combined will probably make about the same as Betancourt's club option.

Free Agent Classification

Another reason for the Rockies to perhaps let Betancourt go would be his status as a Type A free agent. I wrote about free agency compensation several months ago, but the gist is that the top 20% of players in their positional groups (1B/DH/OF, 2B/SS/3B, C, SP, RP) as calculated by Elias are classified as Type A free agents. The formula for these calculations is complicated, convoluted, and confidential, rarely making a list that makes much sense.

In return for losing one of these players in free agency, a club receives the signing club's first round pick in the Rule 4 draft as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. As I discussed in my analysis of the Betancourt trade back in July, the draft picks from a type A free agent are typically worth $5 million to a team. In fact, in that article I recommended that the Rockies decline Betancourt's option and retain the draft picks.

Unfortunately, the Rockies would have to offer Betancourt arbitration in order to receive the draft picks in return--and in this lackluster market, the risk is high that Betancourt will accept and get even more than the $5.4 million club option. The same logic applies to Colorado's other free agents. If the Rockies want to take advantage of the Type B status (sandwich pick as compensation) of Jason Marquis, Torrealba, and Beimel they would have to offer arbitration--and there is a relatively high risk that these players would accept.

Is the risk worth it? For someone like Betancourt, who probably won't get a commensurate offer on the open market, especially with his type A status, the proposition is too chancy. For Marquis, who is likely to draw strong interest in a weak starting pitching market from his hometown Mets, the risk might be low enough to offer him arbitration. My personal view is that Colorado should offer arbitration to Beimel because his arbitration cost would be around his market cost--relatively low. Marquis could command $10-12 million in arbitration, so the Rockies need to be certain that he would decline before they offer it to him.

Next week the picture for the Betancourt situation should be a little clearer as the option decision will be made and the 40 man roster will be solidified. Until then, don't touch that stove. It's hot.

Poll

Should the Rockies exercise their $5.4 million club option on Rafael Betancourt?

Yes. He was nails last season and provides a solid bridge to Huston Street.

111 votes

No, the Rockies should try to sign him at a lower price over a multi-year deal.

131 votes

No, Betancourt is old and signing him would tie up too much salary to the bullpen.

40 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

Wednesday Rockpile: Rockies want Street long term

Rox Girl — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:54:47 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

Brian Fuentes says that there aren't enough celebratory man-hugs in Colorado.

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Among Troy Renck's notes, which include tidbits about Scott Boras as well as two of his clients with Rockies connections in Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez, plus an update on former Padres GM Kevin Towers, he mentions running into Brian Fuentes at the ALCS and in passing notes that the Rockies are looking into signing closer Huston Street to a multi-year deal. Street would be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season, so this would seem to be a departure from the club's usual arbitration buyout plus an option year, and a strong indicator that the club won't be going through a fire sale and rebuild any time soon. Of course, Holliday would be a good example that there are limits to the Monforts' generosity when it comes to contracts, and some players clearly are still out of the Rockies range and a few others still see themselves that way.

The news also seems to put Street in a core category as far as Dan O'Dowd's blueprint for the team over the next few seasons, and bullpen stability in general is also a noted departure from the first five years of his tenure as Rockies GM. Colorado does seem to be stockpiling some young bullpen arms. If Taylor Buchholz and Corpas can return strong from lost seasons and join Street, Matt Daley and Franklin Morales, the Rockies would seem to be well situated in relief over the next two seasons, particularly if Casey Weathers proves worthy of his hype.

Fuentes' statement to Renck is also somewhat enlightening,

"I came here to be in the playoffs. There is an expectation to win," Fuentes said. "They were just starting to develop that in Colorado when I left. It takes time, but obviously they are on the right track."

There's no longer a filter for Brian of having to be nice to the hand that writes the paychecks as far as the Rockies are concerned, so you can read a little more into his statement. The "just starting when I left..," phrase echoes similar statements I've read by other former Rockies that have left the team in the last three or four seasons, including Holliday, IIRC. In player code, this still puts Colorado cleanly in the second division. It's not a backwater dive where a veteran player feels they're at the end of their run, unwanted and trying to hang on to the last vestiges of their career, but for some reason, it's not yet a glittering beacon drawing them in for the chance of post season glory, either.

This means that despite having a better record and more post season appearances over the last five years than Atlanta or San Francisco, for instance, the Rockies still seem to be perceived among players in some respect as an inferior quality professional organization. Maybe I'm reading too much into Fuentes' words, as the Angels clearly are a step ahead of the Rockies right now, but the other teams he was most interested in signing with last season, the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals, are not when it comes to the results that matter. And since it's not just Fuentes that says it, but other players, I'm seeing it as a little more credible as a prevailing notion.

Obviously, I think this gets fixed by repetition of success. For 2010, there needs to be an expectation within the Rockies and among fans that they return to the post season. In fact, I think beating the Dodgers and winning the NL West are almost a necessity if the franchise really wants to elevate itself to that next tier.

Rockies Set Rotation, Roster for NLDS and Lineup for Game 1

Jabberwocky — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 20:22:35 -0000

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

Ubaldo Jimenez will lead the Rockies' playoff rotation.

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According to Sports Illustrated, Jorge De La Rosa will not be available for the NLDS. As such, here's the Rockies' NLDS rotation:

Ubaldo Jimenez,
Aaron Cook
Jason Hammel

It appears that Jason Marquis will be used out of the bullpen during the first three games, meaning that the Rockies seem to be planning to have Jimenez go in game 4 on short rest and Cook in game 5 on regular rest. The possibility still remains that Marquis could start game 4, though no decision has been made on that. Likely if the Rockies are up 2-1 Marquis would start and if they are down 2-1 Jimenez would go.

Jim Tracy on Marquis:

"I think the first two-thirds of the season were exceptional," Tracy said. "Right now he's not throwing the ball quite in the same manner. And to ignore a guy that has thrown the ball as well as Jason Hammel has thrown it since the All-Star break, I really feel is doing ourselves a disservice."

According to the Denver Post, here's the playoff bullpen:

Jason Marquis
Jose Contreras
Matt Belisle
Joe Beimel
Franklin Morales
Matt Daley
Rafael Betancourt
Huston Street

Belisle basically replaced De La Rosa on the roster. The Rockies have two lefties in the pen to help with the Phillies' Ryan Howard in particular.

From the same link, here's the Game 1 Lineup and bench:

Game 1 Lineup:
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Garrett Atkins
C Yorvit Torrealba
RF Brad Hawpe
2B Clint Barmes
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

This is pretty much what I figured the lineup would be for Game 1, with Atkins and Torrealba starting. I'm pleasantly surprised to see that CarGo will make the start in lieu of Ryan Spilborghs, though I believe that the Rockies are better suited with Gonzalez in the leadoff position rather than in the two hole.

Bench:

1B/DH Jason Giambi
C Chris Iannetta
LF Seth Smith
OF Ryan Spilborghs
3B Ian Stewart
2B/OF Eric Young Jr.

EY2 has taken Quintanilla's bench spot while Giambi slides in as the extra position player.

Hat tip to Rock Oax for his FanShot.

UPDATE: Tracy Ringolsby adds his thoughts on the roster and mentions that Jose Contreras is also a viable option for the starter of Game 4.

Dodgers 5, Rockies 0: Divisional Dreams Die at Dodger Stadium

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 05:27:26 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

The Rockies need Franklin Morales in the postseason, but he was the only pitcher from either team to allow a run tonight, and he got just one out.

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It was a nice dream while it lasted, but the Rockies' fairy-tale hopes for the end of the season imploded in Hollywood tonight. Had Colorado won tonight and tomorrow, they would have secured the NL West title and home field advantage throughout the National League playoffs. Instead with the loss, the Rockies will be the NL Wild Card and will open their NLDS Wednesday in Philadelphia. First, they'll play a meaningless game tomorrow for the first time in 162 regular season games.

Morales Implodes

With Matt Daley unavailable from a 28-pitch outing last night, Jim Tracy turned to Franklin Morales in a scoreless game in the bottom of the seventh. Casey Blake singled to left-center field, where Carlos Gonzalez bobbled the ball for an error, allowing Blake to advance to second base. That error completely changed the complexion of the inning.

After a sac bunt moved Blake to third, Ronnie Belliard pinch-hit for Orlando Hudson (who saw that coming in May) and poked an infield single in the hole between first and second. Clearly unnerved, Morales went on to walk two - one intentionally - and give up run scoring hits to Mark Loretta and Juan Pierre in an inning where the Rockies phones to the bullpen mysteriously ceased functioning.

Morales' final line was ugly - 0.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 hits, 2 BB, raising his season ERA to 4.50. He has been unquestionably uneven of late, but he remains a weapon that Jim Tracy cannot draw from elsewhere. He will/needs to be on the playoff roster.

Also of note: this was just the 3rd time in 38 relief appearances that Morales has permitted multiple runs. That's 7.89% of his appearances. For comparison, Huston Street has been guilty of that offense 7.81% of his outings this year. I know Morales has been frustrating, but we'll need him - we can just hope he can get his head on straight.

92 - 69

Games Back: 2

Streak: Lost 1

Games Left: 1

Dominance From the Start

After six days of Los Angeles playing with the composure akin to a roster filled with September call-ups, it was their youngest member that finally showed up to play.

Clayton Kershaw, 21, pitched six sterling shutout innings, striking out ten and allowing just three singles. He retired the first 11 Rockies hitters, nine by strikeout, before Todd Helton pulled a single to right in the fifth to break up a perfect game.

Jorge De la Rosa was up to the task though, as he retired all nine batters he faced, four by strikeout, before leaving two pitches into the fourth with an apparent right groin strain, ruining his bid to tie the Rockies record for wins in a season

The Rockies' lefty had thrown just 40 pitches, and his absence cannot be understated. Jose Contreras deserves a pat on the back for throwing three scoreless innings around traffic, but the way de la Rosa was throwing, Franklin Morales would have never seen the field. In a season where injuries have largely left the Rockies rotation alone, it's unfortunate that minor groin tightness at the eleventh hour ended the Rockies hopes.

Comment of the Night

Game

Oh well. I can’t bring myself to be too too upset, especially considering a week ago we didn’t even think we’d be in this position.

I think I might be more upset about not being able to see what Jorge could have done had he stayed in, than I am the game itself.

by holly96 on Oct 3, 2009 11:13 PM MDT

I'll second everything holly96, but I'll add this: the Rockies have had an epic run, they remain the hottest playoff team in the National League, and though Colorado will face a scary southpaw triumvirate without homefield, the Phillies will have a tough series on their hands.

Join after the jump for the fangraph and the row call.

WPA Heroes:
Jorge de la Rosa (.145) - 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 4 K, 0 BB. 0-for-1, K.
Jose Contreras (.139) - 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 K, BB. 0-for-1, K.
Todd Helton (.052) - 2-for-4, K.

WPA Zeroes:
Franklin Morales (-.372) - 0.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 2 BB.
Brad Hawpe (-.188) - 0-for-3, K, GIDP
Troy Tulowitzki (-.109) - 0-for-4, K

Row Call

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1827 comments, 77 Rowbots and Guests

Groundballs and the Bullpen: Do we need them?

RockiesMagicNumber — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:00:29 -0000

In the Rockpile today, Poseidon's Fist linked an article by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs discussing the Rockies' postseason rotation. He breaks it down to Ubaldo-Cook-DLR-Hammel, leaving Marquis off of the rotation. But it isn't just "lol marquis is teh awfuls," he raises a really good point:

Marquis would give the bullpen something it doesn't have right now - a guy to come in and get a ground ball in order to induce a DP or a play at the plate.

He raises a good point. The bullpen we have going into the postseason is very strikeout-heavy, pretty much bereft of groundballers. But is that such a bad thing?

Name	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
Aaron Cook	2.30	56.7%	24.7%	4.44	2.68	1.66	1.08	.282	1.41
Jason Marquis	2.00	55.6%	27.8%	4.75	3.31	1.44	0.64	.260	1.36
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.85	52.3%	28.2%	7.98	3.44	2.32	0.55	.232	1.24
Juan Rincon	1.41	47.7%	33.8%	8.77	7.01	1.25	0.70	.199	1.48
Jason Hammel	1.51	46.3%	30.8%	6.75	2.16	3.12	0.88	.290	1.39
Jorge de la Rosa	1.32	44.7%	34.0%	9.35	4.10	2.28	0.99	.251	1.4
Joe Beimel	0.83	40.4%	48.9%	6.60	2.40	2.75	1.20	.287	1.4
Matt Belisle	1.03	40.4%	39.4%	6.23	1.48	4.20	1.78	.284	1.29
Randy Flores	1.08	40.0%	37.1%	10.03	1.54	6.50	1.54	.299	1.37
Jose Contreras	1.25	39.5%	31.6%	9.00	4.50	2.00	1.29	.288	1.64
Huston Street	0.92	39.1%	42.4%	10.29	1.94	5.31	1.04	.202	0.93
Matt Daley	0.59	32.8%	55.5%	9.77	2.84	3.44	0.89	.223	1.13
Rafael Betancourt	0.60	29.5%	49.2%	10.13	1.88	5.40	0.38	.201	0.92
Franklin Morales	0.54	27.1%	50.5%	9.30	4.76	1.95	0.91	.233	1.39
Joel Peralta	0.50	24.7%	49.3%	8.03	4.38	1.83	1.09	.280	1.58

It's interesting to note that the strikeouts and groundballs seem to be inversely correlated, but that's a different study entirely.

Contrast this bullpen with the guys in 2007, just based on GB%:

Name	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
LaTroy Hawkins	3.03	63.3%	20.9%	4.72	2.6	1.81	0.98	0.25	1.23
Aaron Cook	2.46	57.9%	23.6%	3.31	2.39	1.39	0.81	0.275	1.34
Manny Corpas	2.03	57.4%	28.3%	6.69	2.31	2.9	0.69	0.223	1.06
Franklin Morales	2.07	54.9%	26.5%	5.95	3.2	1.86	0.46	0.235	1.22
Jeremy Affeldt	1.63	53.0%	32.5%	7.02	5.03	1.39	0.46	0.22	1.36
Matt Herges	1.22	46.5%	38.0%	5.55	2.77	2	0.74	0.199	1.01
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.26	46.4%	36.7%	7.46	4.06	1.84	1.1	0.232	1.3
Jeff Francis	1.19	44.4%	37.2%	6.9	2.63	2.62	1.04	0.278	1.38
Ryan Speier	1.38	41.5%	30.2%	6.5	4	1.63	0.5	0.283	1.56
Mark Redman	0.96	41.3%	42.9%	6.41	2.75	2.33	0.92	0.275	1.37
Josh Fogg	1.00	40.0%	40.0%	5.11	3.21	1.59	1.25	0.293	1.53
Brian Fuentes	0.83	35.9%	43.1%	8.22	3.38	2.43	0.88	0.21	1.13

Click past the jump and we'll break these numbers down.

In 2009, our 3 most extreme groundballers are all starting pitchers. Which makes sense, more or less, it helps mitigate damage via the double play and it keeps pitch counts down by getting more balls in play early in the count.

In 2007, however, 3.5 of our 5 most extreme groundballers were in the bullpen, and only Aaron Cook was in the rotation. Morales' role in the postseason was somewhat mixed, so that's why he gets the .5 for pen and .5 for rotation.

So in a casual sense, yes, we'd like a groundballer in the bullpen. But it seems, for the rationale listed above, that the groundballers are better suited to the rotation, as they are more prone to giving up hits (at least in terms of Marquis and Cook), and typically with bullpen duty, you want to get the outs as lock-downingly as possible, as to mitigate potential inherited damage.

So let's get a quick look at how 2007 and 2009 stack up in summation.

2007	GB%	K/9	tRA*
Rotation	45.71%	5.61	4.96
Bullpen	50.01%	6.46	4.44

2009	GB%	K/9	tRA*
Rotation	51.24%	6.69	4.33
Bullpen	38.48%	8.02	4.06

You could probably just look at that little chart and say "well, the Rockies just are a better pitching team this year" and I wouldn't argue with you at all. But it does seem that in sacrificing GB% for K/9, we made our pen better, and by further emphasizing GB% in the rotation, it made it better there as well.

The two pitchers I'd like to single out kind of embody the balance between the two measures presented: Ubaldo Jimenez and Manny Corpas.

I don't think I need to say much about Jimenez. 7.98 K/9 and 52.3% GB and he throws 700mph and he runs on clean burning biodiesel.

Corpas, however (and I'll keep this somewhat brief, I want to touch on his season more after we're all wrapped up with 2009), strikes out a decent amount, has excellent control of the strike zone (as in he never walks anyone), and still throws his slider very effectively. He also has a career GB% of 51.4%.

His sinker/2seamer/whatever we're calling it lost something this year, and there's a distinct chance we could chalk some of that up to a damaged elbow causing him to overthrow or something (this really isn't my area of expertise). He got hit a lot harder than we'd like to see, but I really think he'll rebound in 2010. He still gets a good number of ground balls, still doesn't give up many fly balls, and actually posted a lower FIP in 2009 than '08 or '07.

Frankly, and I know he was kind of awful this year, but I do think the pen missed having Corpas just for the different toolset he brought along. I mean, clearly we didn't miss him TOOOOOOOO much, but we had to rely on guys like Flores to come strike one LHB out (and he did do that pretty well: 11K to 1BB v LHB) when we had a jam to get out of. Season-long, yeah, Corpas was trouble, but situationally, he might still be a good tool to have around. But again, next season.

As for the original issue, having Marquis in the pen WOULD present us with a groundballing option, but I'm not 100% convinced I want to bring him into tight situations, especially with how wild his last start was in general. If you want a situational groundballer, you need a guy who can come in and paint corners with either a nasty changeup or a strong sinker, locating low and getting the big double play outs. I don't see Marquis being able to do that.

Mopup guy? Sure. 3 inning relief? Sure.

Situational groundballer? ehhhhhhh I wish we had Corpas still.

Rockies 10, Brewers 6: Colorado now one victory away from securing playoff spot

Russ Oates — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:17:34 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Yes, it is.

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One--the loneliest number, or so someone says. It's also the Rockies' magic number (no, not RockiesMagicNumber) after tonight's riveting victory over the Brewers. One win away from Rocktober again.

Two--a good number, as the three home runs the Rockies hit were all of the two-run variety. Todd Helton, Carlos Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki hit those in the third, sixth, and seventh, respectively. Carlos Gonzalez also led off the bottom of the first with a triple and scored on a Seth Smith single.

Yorvit Torrealba continued his hot hitting with three hits and an RBI. Comically, two runs scored on wild pitches.

And now we arrive at the pitching. What do Juan Rincon, Joe Beimel, Matt Daley, and Franklin Morales all have in common tonight? They worked to end the seventh inning. Yes, four relievers. It all went like this. After Jason Hammel struck out eight and allowed four runs in five innings, Jose Contreras treated us to an exciting sixth inning by loading the bases and ending the inning with a strikeout. Then Juan Rincon started the seventh inning off by watching a Ryan Braun single. Yanked. Joe Beimel enters and sees the same thing out of Prince Fielder. The hook. Matt Daley then recorded a K, a single, another K, and another single (this one scored a run). Time to go. Franklin Morales came in got a fly out. Anyone see the problem with that inning?

Ten--Jason Hammel reached double digits in wins, giving the Rockies five starters with at least 10 victories.

Ninety--the Rockies have now tied their franchise record for most wins including play-in games.

90 - 68

Games Back: 3

Streak: Won 3

Games Left: 4

via www.fangraphs.com

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Coming in with Runners On – Not our Forte.

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:12:30 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Frankie, maybe they're just not using you right.

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This snippet here addresses one of my main gripes about the bullpen and how it's being handled. Our manager seems content to leave our pitchers in past when pitch counts suggest it's time for the yank, and let them get into trouble before bringing in his setup staff. One of the recipients of these particular hard knocks has been our right-handed setup man Rafael Betancourt.

On paper, Betancourt's been a stud made of awesomeness. As a Rockie, he's posted a 2.05 ERA (2.14 FIP, 2.15 tRA) and struck out 23 (2.89 K/BB) over 22.0 IP (29 G), and adding 0.8 WAR to the team. He's been more or less "nails", striking out 9.40 batters per 9, his highest rate since 2005 (9.71).

However, he seems to have been struggling lately, not being nearly as crisp as we're accustomed to. However, as I've screamed in game threads, it seems he's being brought in an awful lot to face hitters who've been dumped on him from the pitcher before letting runners on and then getting the hook. Logically, you're going to perform better with a clean slate to start with. What I am having trouble understanding is why we need to push a starter already at 110 pitches to start the 8^th inning when we have a nails setup man and a lights out closer ready to roll. We're paying them, how about we use them?

Anyhow. I ran a quick study using Baseball-Reference.com (btw, check out Ubaldo's page) to see what Rockies Relievers do when the situations are tough, and when they're easy. I used a cumulative WPA to gauge the situations and see how "well" the guys perform when they have inherited runners and when the slate is clean for them. I use WPA so that we can get a look on their effect on the game, as ERA or whatever will attribute runs to other pitchers and such if there are inherited runners allowed, and that really doesn't tell us what we want to know. WPA will just answer the question: "did the pitcher improve the Rockies' chances of winning?"

Don't remember WPA? Refresh yourself, and then come join us after the jump.

So what we've done is taken the game logs from Baseball-Reference, and broken them down into games where our bullpen has had to deal with inherited runners, and games where they haven't. The results aren't terribly shocking, but interesting nonetheless. (note: these numbers don't include the past game or two.)

Name	# of G w/o IR	WPA	# of G w/ IR	IRS%	WPA
Betancourt	17	0.65	11	47%	-0.53
Daley	36	0.75	15	31%	-0.59
Morales	22	0.72	13	33%	0.11
Beimel	12	-0.3	10	19%	0.32
Street	54	2.48	6	50%	0.35
Fogg	11	-0.2	11	42%	-0.07
Belisle	13	0.05	7	50%	0.05
Rincon	14	-0.2	10	0%	0.54

(IR = Inherited Runners, IRS = Inherited Runners Scored, WPA = Win Probability Added)

In short, I can see the following here: Joe Beimel handles traffic well, but for some reason, struggles when given a clean slate. Betancourt and Daley shouldn't be brought in with runners on.

And the scariest point of all: Juan Rincon doesn't allow inherited runners to cross home plate. Period.

So here's the skinny. Rincon is scarily good at cleaning up somebody else's messes. But with no mess to clean, he makes his own. Beimel does the same thing.

Some combination of Morales/Daley, Betancourt, and Street should be our closing staff. They should also be brought in for a clean inning, none of this "oh hey there are 2 guys on and nobody out" nonsense.

Josh Fogg isn't a good pitcher. But that's not really news.

Matt Belisle is about as Meh as it comes. You can see by that 0.05 WPA on both sides of the chart that he really doesn't add much or take much from the team's chances of winning. It makes me laugh because it just speaks to his skillset - pretty boring - but it makes the most sense because for the most part, he's only tossed into very low leverage outings, mopup duty, where him allowing a run or two over however much work isn't really going to change the Rockies' chances of winning all that much. I'd wager if he was put into higher leverage situations regularly, you'd see quite a bit more on the WPA- side.

This is the kind of stuff that gets to me, the proper usage of our pitchers. Some can handle the heat, some just want to come in and get their own zeros and not worry about anyone else. They should be used as such.