SB Nation - Brett Cecil

Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Condition is In: Who Moves Up, Who Moves Down on our Prospect List

Tom Dakers — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:48:37 -0000

As a start towards re-doing our prospect list I thought we'd take a look at the guys on our current list and see which ones improved their status with the team and which ones likely dropped back or right off the prospect list. Then we can start looking at who should be on the new list.

I'll list the players in the spots they are at on our current list, which was put together about this time last year.

1.Travis Snider. Snider got 241 major league at bats, in which he hit .241/.331/.430, not great but not bad considering he was just 21, the 6^th youngest player in the AL. He also had 175 at bats at Triple-A Las Vegas hitting a terrific .337/.431/.663 there. Clearly he wasn't one of Cito's favourites, which puts him in a class with Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado, who have roughly 800 major league home runs between them, so not exactly bad company. If you consider Travis a prospect still, he didn't do much to hurt his status as our number one prospect, but I figure we will graduate him off the prospects list and consider him a major leaguer now. It is always possibly that Cito will decide he's not ready for the majors, this spring, and give his at bats to someone like Kevin Millar. Then, he'd be a prospect and a darn good one still, considering he'd just be 22 years old. But, please Cito, play him every day next year.

2. Brett Cecil. Cecil got 17 major league starts last season, going 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA. Not great, not terrible. He was just 22 years old, so still pretty young for a lefty starter. He pitched another 49 innings in Vegas going 1-5 there with a 5.69 ERA. He was moved to the majors before we likely would have liked him to be, with all the injuries we had to the starting staff. If you consider him a prospect still, he's still a good one, just 23 next year. He'd likely be moved down a few spots on our list, but we'll likely ‘graduate' him off the prospect list.

3. J.P. Arencibia. J.P. did not have the season we hoped he'd have. Promoted to Triple-A, he hit just .236/.284/.444 with 21 homers. I guess calling him a Rod Barajas type would be fair, nice power, low average, wouldn't take a walk if his life depended on it. He'll likely move down some on our list, but he's still a decent prospect. He'll be 24 next year so he can't afford another season like this one, but several good players need two years at Triple-A to find their way.

4. David Cooper. In just his second year of pro ball he was moved up to Double-A New Hampshire. It didn't go well, .258/.340/.389. I would think they will start him at Double-A again and hope he moves up quick. He is just 22 and just 2 years removed from college ball, so there is time to right the ship, but I'd expect he'll be dropped several spots down on our next list. Can't write off a guy at his age though.

5. Justin Jackson. Justin moved up to high-A Dunedin to start this year. It didn't go well, he hit .213/.321/.239 and he missed some time with a ‘frayed labrum'. He's still young, just 20 this past year and has good speed (17 steals), can take a walk (39 in 249 at bats) and his defence looks good. He has got the tools, just has to make it all work. We got to see him a few times in spring training and he didn't look out of place. All that said, he likely to move down a few spots on our list. I'm not sure that I don't think Tyler Pastornicky is a better prospect in the long run.

6. Kevin Ahrens. Continuing our list of prospects that disappointed this year, Kevin was moved up to high-A Dunedin for this season and forgot to bring his bat, hitting just .215/.282/.302. Again just 20 and knows how to take a walk but we really would have liked better from him. He'll likely drop several spots on the prospect list. Don't totally write him off at 20 but he's going to have to pick it up next year.

7. Scott Campbell. A personal favourite, he played in Dunedin, New Hamshire and Las Vegas this year and really didn't take a step forward, .272/.368/.356. He started slow then got injured when it looked like he was turning things around. Pretty much a lost year for him. The Jays tried him at 3B some this year, which I don't understand at all, he doesn't have the power for a corner infield spot. I'd give him a mulligan because of the injuries but he was 24 last season, so it is tough to see him as a prospect unless he does something terrific in spring training. Alex Anthopoulos obviously doesn't think too much of him since he's picked up a couple of middle infield types in the past few weeks off waivers: Mike McCoy and Jarrett Hoffpauir. Much as I like Campbell, I can't see him being on the next prospects list.

8. Brad Mills. Brad made a couple of starts for us back in June when virtually every other starting pitcher in our system was hurt. They didn't go well. He made 14 starts in Triple-A Vegas going just 2-8 but with a decent (for the Pacific Coast League) ERA of 4.06. He had a good strikeout to walk rate 35 walks to 72 strikeouts. He had a good spring training with us, he was in the running for a opening day rotation spot, right up until the end. He gives up more fly balls (and therefore homers) than you would like to see. And he will be 25 next season, not old for a lefty starter but time is running out. I think he'll move a few spots down on our prospect list but with luck and work could make the rotation.

9. Ricky Romero. He's graduated off the prospect list. I think I argued that he shouldn't be so high on our list last year. Shows what I know. He is 25 next year and I'd like to have the paychecks he has in his future.

10. John Tolisano. Like fellow 20 year olds Jackson and Ahrens, John played at Dunedin last year and did not do well, hitting .232/.305/.379. Like the other two, he knows how to take a walk and is young enough to overcome it. He did show some power (12 homers) and wasn't doing too bad before just a horrible August that hurt his numbers. That said, he's got good power for a 2B and is young enough to bounce back from this year, but he'll be moved back on our prospect list.

We'll look at the guys that were 11-20 on our list in the next couple of days and 21-30 soon after that. Then we'll take a look at ones that could jump on our next list.

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

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In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.

Brett Cecil Wins his Last Start of the Season

Tom Dakers — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 20:31:16 -0000

by Ben Margot - AP

For some reason we didn't get any pictures of today's game but here is Brett Cecil from earlier in the year. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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Twins 2 Blue Jays 3

That was a really nice start for Brett Cecil to go out on. 6 innings, 7 hits, just the 1 walk, 2 earned and 3 strikeouts. He finishes the season (presumably) 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA. August was a bad month for him, he was 2-2 but with a 8.25 ERA. I thought perhaps he had a tired arm, as he pitched more this year than ever before and he's not that far removed from being a closer in college. He did have a bit more trouble with LH batters than righties, unusual for LH pitchers for any team other than the Jays. I don't know why we would have so many lefties that have reverse splits but that's the way it is. He gave up a few too many homers and walks this season but I'm sure he'll improve on that in the future. I think we have a keeper.

The bullpen closed out the final 3 innings, holding the 1 run lead Cecil left with, allowing no hits. Scott Downs pitched a perfect 8th inning and Jason Frasor did the same in the 9th to get the save. Jeremy Accardo got his first work since coming back, giving up a walk and getting a force out at 2nd on a bunt, a pretty play by Edwin Encarnacion, he got the ball between the pitchers mound and the plate and threw across his body to get the out at 2nd. I know he's made some errors but I've also seen him make some very nice plays. I think, if he can get his power stroke back, he'd make a good third baseman.

Offensively we did just enough. We only had 6 hits and 4 walks on the day but 4 of the hits were doubles and one was a homer. Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, Travis Snider and John McDonald each had doubles and Bautista had the homer. Adam Lind drove in 2 runs, one on the double and one on a sac fly giving him 96 on the season.

Jays of the Day are Bautista (.181 WPA), Frasor (.168), Downs (.124) and Cecil (.123). Honorable mention to Lind and Snider. Suckage Jay is Lyle Overbay (-.105, 0 for 4).

Tomorrow we start a four game series in Detroit. and we'll get to see David Purcey on Monday. Tomorrow Brian Tallet (6-9, 5.31) goes against Nate Robertson (1-1, 5.40). We've tied two four game series in a row now, let's take 3 of 4 this time.

Brett Cecil Stymies Twins

Jesse — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 19:49:50 -0000

More photos » by FRANK GUNN - AP

3 months ago: Minnesota Twins starter Scott Baker pitches during fourth inning baseball action against the Toronto Blue Jays in Toronto on Thursday, Sept. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn)

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Brett Cecil? Really?

Yes. The guy who's had a hard time keeping his ERA under 5.00 since June, and the guy who was lit up for 25 runs in 24 August innings, just shut the Twins down over six innings. Sure, Denard Span picked up his seventh homer to tie the game at one, and Orlando Cabrera finally helped the Twins plate one of their doubles on the team's fourth try, but no matter what the Twins did they had to fight and scratch for every inch. Everything they hit that wasn't a double (or Span's homer) found a glove.

It was pretty harsh.

Cecil wasn't that good. He only walked one, retired three on strikes, gave up seven hits (five of the extra-base variety), but he got the outs when he needed them. And so did Scott Baker, for the most part.

Baker, like Cecil, allowed four doubles and a home run. Home plate umpire Joe West did a fabulous job of squeezing the strike zone on Baker, who picked up seven strikeouts but on a couple of occasions saw his batter take what looked like strike three for a ball. On one occasion, a close call that went for a ball instead of strike three set in motion a chain of events that eventually led to Toronto's third run of the afternoon.

I'm not about to blame the umpires. Cecil did his job, no matter how mediocre he made it look. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau combined to go 0-for-8, even though every other starter reached base at least once: Span's homer, O-Cab picked up a pair of hits, Jason Kubel-Michael Cuddyer-Delmon Young had a hit each, Brendan Harris walked twice and Nick Punto had one of the Twins' four doubles. The ultimate problem was that the Twins couldn't get the hit when they needed it. They had their chances.

Ron Mahay and Jesse Crain got two outs each, finishing off the game for Baker. This runs Crain's scoreless streak to seven appearances, while Mahay hasn't allowed an earned run (just one, unearned) in three appearances with the Twins.

Twinkie Town now turns it's lonely eyes to the Royals, who are over-matched and out-gunned against the Tigers, yet are holding onto a 3-2 lead in the fifth as they go for the sweep. Cheer for the Royals, everybody.

Studs x 3
#3: Denard Span (1-for-4, HR, RBI, R, -.009 WPA)
#2: Orlando Cabrera (2-for-4, 2B, RBI, .063 WPA)
#1: Scott Baker (6.1 IP, 5 H, 7 K, 4 BB, 3 R, -.042 WPA)

Duds x 2
Joe & Justin: Sorry, boys. When you each go 0-for-4 on a day when the team needs offense, the axe will usually fall on you. Unfair though it may be, the expectations for production are there for a reason.

6-0 L: The good news is no one got hurt. The bad news is they lost. Call it even?

CrazyYankeeChick — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 03:22:46 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

CC needs to hold a pitching tutorial on how to maintain effectiveness in the presence of gut

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My sister doesn't believe in holding off on 3-0 counts or resting your starters. She thinks if you're gonna take the field, swing away and sustain momentum above all else. I disagree on the first, and go back and forth on the second. Since the Yankees lost to the Blue Jays at the hands of Roy Halladay's 1-hitter, tonight I'm going to say I disagree on her second belief, too. You don't have to win them all. Just enough to make the playoffs, but not enough to put anyone's health at jeopardy.

So...good thinking, Yanks! Watching the game tonight at my go-to bar, I heard "throw-away game" tossed around more than "put it on my tab." It was eerily reminiscent of the Giants-Vikings regular season-ending game last year. The east beasts handed over the W to Minny...and then lost in the first playoff game. But then again, Roy Halladay isn't a bad pitcher. And the weird permutations of fielders and batters made it seem like the Yankees drew names from a hat to determine who'd play.

I can stomach this loss. I won't lose sleep over it. Let's see what they come up with tomorrow. Was tonight, in fact, a throw-away game? Had they shifted downgear for this one? Stomp on Toronto tomorrow, and all will be forgiven.

As for tonight...

Before "throw-away" game was tumbling out of patrons, the anxious, desperation jinxes of "Look! It's a perfect game perfect game perfect game" played like staccato notes up and down the bar. It worked, thankfully. First by Jorge Posada's walk, then a no-no broken with Ramiro Pena's double. In fact, Pena really was the only Yankee who put ANY numbers on the sheepishly empty scoreboad. 1 hit and 1 error. MLB binary code for 3. As in only 3 men other than Pena even reached a base.

Or 3 is the number of innings it took for Joba Chamberlain to do a sufficient amount of hands on research for his dissertation on "How to Completely Negate the Whole Point of the Joba Rules: Simple Ways Your Reliever-Starter Can Erratically Stuff Innings with Pitches, Much Like a Bank Robber Would Stuff a Large Sack with Twenties." He threw 59 pitches in 3 innings. 59 pitches it took him to let up 6 hits and walk 2. Very economical. How that's protecting his arm, I have no idea.

Or 3 is the number of men on base when Alex Rodriguez struck out looking at a beautiful no-doubter. He was waiting for the outside pitch, but did he really think Roy Halladay was going to assess the bases-loaded situation, see that the tying run he's pitching to happens to be one of the best hitters in the game, and decide, "I'm gonna roll the dice and throw an outside 4-seamer. Why not! We're spoilers!"

Or 3 is the number of batters Michael Dunn walked in his Major League Debut. I felt a little bad for him. He looked so uncomfortable up there, but based on how the rest of the team was playing, he probably thought that was the standard demeanor amongst the team--awkward and uneasy.

Or 3 is the number of hours Halladay kept the game under. Despite the legions of pitches thrown, (253) the game was 2 and half hours long, thanks to Halladay who managed to deal all game, even with a 111 PC. (Beckett/Papelbon, take note...)

Mark Melancon. I'm not a fan. Mainly because he walked in a run, which is right up there with fouling out with a bunt in my baseball gripes. The skeleton crew Girardi syphoned from the bullpen was really a scrappy-looking bunch today. Which is fine because if we're gonna lose, I'd rather see a bunch of "Don't Unpack Your Suitcase Just Yet" relievers, instead of wasting Hughes' filth (and Aceves's, uh, quasi-filth. Dust.)

Adam Lind keeps my fantasy team's slugging respectable. (3-4, 2 RBI). Him and Aaron Hill (2-5, 1 RBI) are an underrated three-four setup.

The Red Sox got carved up tonight. 7.5 lead stays in tact. Another reason why tonight was a good night to lose.

Tomorrow we go back to conventional pitching practices of using a starter to start the game and allow him to pitch for a sufficient period. Andy Pettitte vs Brett Cecil. They'll get this one back. And start another streak, because that's what they do.

That was so much better than Yesterday's game, Adam Lind drives in 8 runs in a Jays win over the Rangers

Tom Dakers — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 05:12:55 -0000

More photos » by Brandon Wade - AP

Thanks for getting back Vernon. (AP Photo/Brandon Wade)

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Blue Jays 18 Rangers 10

You know, I looked at the line up today and thought we'd be lucky to score. I'm going to mention the amazing part first. How can a team score 18 runs when the 'cleanup' hitter doesn't score or drive in a run? I wonder if that is a record of some sort? Every one else in the lineup scored at least one run.

Adam Lind drove in 8 with a grand slam and a bases clearing double and solo homer. Rod Barajas hit 2 homers as well, driving in 5. Rod....is amazing. A few days ago he was hitting .130 since the All-Star break. Now he's had 4 homers in the last 10 days. After a hitting line of 182/.193/327 with 2 homers in July he is now .209/.243/.448 in August with 5 homers in August. Still isn't a good month but it has been a heck of a week. If he could be somewhat consistent he could be great. But when you only have 2 months out of 4 with a BA over .225, it is hard to think of you as great. Trouble for the manager is you never know when the hot streak will hit.

Marco Scutaro, Aaron Hill and Lind scored 3 runs each. We had 14 hits and 7 walks. John McDonald even had 3 hits. You know life is good when Johnny Mac gets 3 hits. Vernon Well had a double and a triple. He also almost pulled a Alex Rios, with 1 out in the 9th he ran off 2nd base on a fly ball, apparently thinking there were already 2 outs. Thankfully he got back in time. If he hadn't got back we wouldn't have scored our last 5 runs.

Randy Ruiz walked 2 times and was caught stealing once. He was a hit and run and Jose Bautista missed the ball. Why you would call a hit and run with Bautista up I have no idea. Bautista isn't exactly a bat control guy. Scoot also walked twice and was thrown out stealing once. And Hill walked with the bases loaded, which, we think, might be the first time this year we got a bases loaded walk.

Pitching didn't go so well. Brett Cecil pitched 4 very good innings then gave up 7 runs in the 5th. He was clearly tired. Cito wanted him to get through the 5th so he could get the win but it darn near cost us the game. He was hit in the thigh with a ground ball in the middle of it all. I'm sure he has a great bruise. 2 batters later he gave up a grand slam but after that he got a strikeout to end the inning. He has pitched more innings than ever before in a season, he is clearly tired. I would have much rather Cito pull him when he was tired. A win is nice but a young man pitching tired is an invite for an injury.

Casey Janssen started the 6th and didn't look great, gave up 2 singles, a walk and struck out 2. Jesse Carlson relieved but gave up a run scoring single before getting out of the inning. He gave up 2 singles getting one out in the 7th before Scott Downs came in. Downs gave up a deep fly that Vernon caught high at the wall. I'm not sure it would have been a homer but it was close. It was a terrific catch. Instead of being a 3 run homer to give the Rangers the lead it was a Sac Fly that made it a 1 run game. Downs closed out the inning and pitched a perfect 8th. Jason Frasor pitched the 9th but since we scored 7 runs in our half of it, it wasn't a save. Cito could have chosen not to put Frasor in but likely he was warming up at the start of the 9th before Cito knew we were going to get 7 runs that inning.

In one of those wonderful scoring quirks, Brett Cecil gets the win, even though he gave up 7 runs in the 5th. It is one of those things that reminds you that win/loss records for pitchers are worthless, but then well, in the end, who cares. it's the way things are done.

Defensively Johnny Mac made a great play at third base in the second inning and made a good play in the 8th on a ball he booted. He didn't panic, picked up the ball and made a great throw to first to get Ian Kinsler, who likely should have been running harder down the line. And Vernon's catch in the 7th inning was, at the time, a game saver. If that had been a home run I'd have been in the bathroom soon after trying to find a razor sharp enough to slash my wrist.

Jays of the Day are Scott Downs (.222 WPA for 5 straight outs at an important time), Barajas (.161, off 2 homers), Adam Lind (.126, 2 homers, 8! RBI) and Hill (.106). I'm also giving one to Vernon for the double and triple and the very important catch. John McDonald had a -.005 but I'm giving him a honorable mention for the two fielding plays and the 3 hits. Suckage Jay.....well...Jesse Carlson got the number (-.132). I didn't think he was so bad but ok.

That was one long game. But then tomorrow will be much longer. We have a rare double header tomorrow night. Brian Tallet (5-8, 5.09) goes against Dustin Nippert (4-2, 4.02) in the first game at 5:00 Eastern tomorrow. Marc Rzepczynski (2-3, 3.48) is up against Brandon McCarthy (5-2, 4.92) in the second game, starting time, well sometime after the first game ends. Let's hope the first game comes in a little shorter than today's 3:34 epic battle.

The game thread was great fun tonight. Wins will do that for you. Hopefully tomorrow will be just as fun. But please please Cito, if for no other reason than my sanity is hanging by a thread, don't bat Millar cleanup.

My understanding is the Jay's September call ups won't be there tomorrow night. I'm thinking that with the double header tomorrow, getting a couple of fresh arms to Texas would be a good thing. Oh and Happy Birthday to my Dad. Not that he will read this but hope he enjoyed it.

Bluebird Banter Answers the Dallas Morning News' Questions

hugo — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:33:28 -0000

Hi everyone. So, Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News sent me some questions in anticipation of the Jays' 4-game, 3-day series with the Rangers and, given the team's recent play, I gritted my teeth and answered them:

DMN: The Rangers last saw the Blue Jays in June. Give us an update on the club since then.

Hugo: Do I have to? Things haven't been pretty for the Jays since June. July saw the pitching stay strong but the hitting falter, and August saw some better hitting but very poor pitching, with even ace Roy Halladay struggling. The team's situational hitting has been very poor and its record in one-run games has been a disaster.

In terms of personnel, Roy Halladay is still a Jay, as the world saw with the drama that played out around the trade deadline. B.J. Ryan and Alex Rios, however, are not. The Jays ate Ryan's salary as a sunk cost but the Chicago White Sox opted to assume the six years remaining on Rios' salary. The Jays also traded Scott Rolen to the Cincinnati Reds for Edwin Encarnacion (who is presently nursing an injured hamstring) and two young pitchers, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke. Losing Rios and Rolen has hurt the Jays' defense, which in turn has hurt the Jays' pitching.

About the only bright spot since June has been the return of Travis Snider over the past two weeks. He hasn't lit up the league, but is hitting much better than he did in April before being returned to the minors.

DMN: Roy Halladay has not been as dominant since the trade deadline as he has the rest of the season. Is any of that hangover from not getting traded or is he just in a mini-slump based on the opponents he’s faced and that he was due for some minor bump in the road?

Hugo: Halladay isn't the type to let not getting traded affect his mental or physical preparation for games or his in-game focus, so I think it's just one of those things. He's been facing very good AL East offensive teams that have seen a ridiculous amount of Doc over the past many years, and every so often, teams like that are going to figure him out a little bit. Doc's walk and strikeou numbers have been as good as ever, so some of it is undoubtedly bad luck. It's actually refreshing in a way to be reminded that even Halladay is only human. That said, when Doc isn't himself and the Jays are struggling, it can be doubly painful because the team really depends on Doc to be the stopper.

DMN: Who has been the biggest surprise of the season for Toronto? The biggest disappointment?

Hugo: Designated hitter/left fielder Adam Lind and second baseman Aaron Hill have been fantastic stories. Both are young home-grown players that have shown potential in the past but really took it to the next level this season. But for me the biggest surprises have been shortstop Marco Scutaro and young lefthanded pitcher Ricky Romero. In Scutaro's case, I just can't remember a player his age undergoing such a drastic change in his game. He's been a fantastic leadoff hitter who has been impossible to keep off the bases, and played a splendid defensive shorstop as well. As for Romero, he had been the butt of a joke at General Manager J.P. Ricciardi's expense for so long people forgot that he was a first-round pick for a reason. Recently he's been struggling with his command, but unlike some of the other young Jays' pitchers, he won't need to be shut down to preserve his arm, so he should have a chance to turn it around in September.

As for the biggest disappointment, it's clearly Vernon Wells. Wells spent about a third of last season hurt, but he performed very well when he was in the lineup, at least at the plate. This season, though has been a disaster with poor play on both sides of the ball. He just hasn't been able to get going at all at the plate, and his defense has fallen off considerably from where it was. The fans have turned on him as well and home games can't be fun for Wells right now. I feel bad for him as his salary really shouldn't be held against him and he is clearly giving it his all, but the bottom line is that he has been one of the poorer everyday players in the league this season and a mid-market team like the Jays can't afford to carry a player like that, let alone at such an astronomical salary.

DMN: How has the bullpen performed the last month or so? What can Rangers fans expect in the late innings of close games?

Hugo: August hasn't been a good month for the bullpen. Scott Downs returned from the re-aggravation of a toe injury that had sidelined him earlier this season, but he hasn't gotten much work in since then and has been shaky when he has pitched. After a splendid July, Brandon League has had an ugly August and has generally been a bit of a mystery all season - he has more strikeouts than innings pitched and very few walks, numbers that should suggest dominance, especially considering his hard sinker known for inducing groundballs. Yet his ERA (presently 5.31) hasn't reflected that at all. Lefthanded batters have been the main culprit. Lefty Jesse Carlson and righty Jason Frasor have been the best relief pitchers recently, and I'd look for them late in close games at the moment.

DMN: Who are a few players to watch in this series?

Hugo: Travis Snider is the one to watch at the moment, at least from the Jays' fans perspective. The young slugger has struggled to make contact since being returned to the big club (he has struck out in over a third of his 46 plate appearances) but that has come from working the count more (8 walks in 12 games) as well as from his struggles to make contact so it's not all bad. Snider is only hitting .198 since returning, but he has gotten on base at a .348 clip and hit three home runs. The bottom line is that it's only been 12 games and he is still very much a work in progress, but one worth watching. Adam Lind is making a bid at a 30-home run season (he's got 25 right now), which would be a lovely milestone for the young hitter, while Hill has already reached that (he hit no. 31 on Friday).

DMN: Can you give us a scouting report on the starters the Rangers will face in this 4-game series packed into 3 days?

Hugo: Sure. Brett Cecil will pitch in tonight's game and it could well be his last start as he has about maxed out his innings between the majors and the minors this season. Cecil, like the Jays, was on his way to a very nice rookie season and had a spectacular July but August has not been kind. The young Marylander has really struggled with his command and has given up 2 home runs in each of his last two starts to boot. Cecil, a lefthander, has a good sinking fastball that he uses to induce groundballs, a very good slider, and a changeup and curve that have eluded him at times this season.

In Tuesday's doubleheader, Brian Tallet will start the first game. Tallet, essentially a career reliever prior to this season, stepped into the Jays' rotation early this season when it was decimated by injuries and did a credible job. This will be his first start since being returned to the bullpen in late July. Tallet is not a hard-thrower and relies on movement on his pitches and a good changeup.

Marc Rzepczynski (that's "Zep-Chin-Ski") will start the other game on Tuesday. Zep (as his teammates called him) is, like Cecil, a 2007 draftee and his emergence this season has been a nice surprise for the Jays. He's been quite good in his 10 starts, showing excellent movement on his pitches and good strikeout and groundball numbers. Like Cecil, he leans heavily on his fastball-slider combo and will occasionally struggle with his control.

Scott Richmond will pitch on Wednesday. Richmond is a great story as a 29-year old rookie who was pitching for the Edmonton Cracker Cats of the Independed League just a couple of seasons ago. Richmond started off the season fantastically but, like the Jays, has fallen on hard times recently. He was out for a few weeks with some inflammation in his throwing arm and hasn't been the same since returning. Richmond has shown a solid ability to miss bats (97 Ks in 106 IP) and limit walks, but he can occasionally get hit hard. He uses the traditional four pitches and is most effective when he is mixing them all in.

DMN: How do Blue Jays fans feel about the Rangers? Do they expect the team to make this wild card race interesting in the final month of the season?

Hugo: I hope they do. It's always fun to see a good wild-card race. Though I suppose there is some vested interest among Jays' fans in the wild card winner coming from the AL East, since Jays fans like to complain about how difficult the division is, a complaint that has a lot of truth.

DMN: Anything else Rangers fans should know about the Blue Jays?

Hugo: The past two months have really taken its toll on the psyche of the team's fans. Even after the Jays' hot start, fans expected the second half to be tough with so many games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, but things have been even rougher than anticipated with the team essentially winning 1/3 of their games for the past two months. The Jays have been bad over that period, but they haven't been nearly this bad either.

Yeah another one that wasn't fun

Tom Dakers — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 05:24:42 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

3 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays Vernon Wells, center, and Travis Snider, right, sit on the bench as teammate Marco Scutaro returns to the dugout after flying during ninth inning in a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays in Toronto on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2009. The Rays won 7-3. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

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Rays 7 Blue Jays 3

Brett Cecil wasn't good, I'm thinking the guy has thrown more pitches this year than he ever has in the past, likely he has a tired arm and maybe is time to shut him down. He gave up 2 home runs to Carlos Pena in his 3.1 innings. We used 5 guys out of the bullpen, all of them looked good. Scott Downs pitched a good inning for his first work since coming back from the DL. I'm growing to like Josh Roenicke.

Offensively we had 10 hits tonight and 2 homers, one each for Aaron Hill and Travis Snider. So one would have expected that that we would score more than 3 runs, but one would be wrong. Everyone in the starting lineup had at least one hit expect Randy Ruiz, but he's been great since coming up so we'll give him a pass today. Vernon Wells and Rod Barajas had 2 hits each. Even John McDonald took a walk after coming into the game to give Hill a couple of innings off. Walking Johnny Mac should be grounds to be send to the minors, and the low minors at that.

Defensively? Well, Vernon did run down a couple of balls, but the other two in the outfield? Man, run towards ball that are hit in your direction. Please. Bautista made another error. As good as he has looked in the outfield he looks bad at third base.

Jays of the Day? Well we don't have any. Barajas comes closest at a big .023 WPA. Suckage Jay? Brett Cecil (-.399). Randy Ruiz came close at -.094.

Yeah the game wasn't much fun. You really have to take joy in the little things. Hill hit his 30th homer. And Snider has been terrific at the plate.

Tomorrow Scrabble (2-3, 3.65) goes for the Jays against Scott Kazmir (8-7, 6.17). how you have a winning record with a 6.17 ERA I couldn't tell you but hopefully we score some runs.

Friday Morning-ish Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:07:13 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

This guy, he's good.

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A few links before the lunch break to help tide you over until game time:

A hat tip has to go out out to FarmStros on this one. Kyle Greenwalt's hometown newspaper has an in depth interview with him on what it was like to transition from being in high school to being a professional baseball player, virtually overnight. It really is a fantastic read to get a human interest take on life in the minor leagues. Thanks, FarmStros. For those of you not following him @farmstros you're missing out some good haikus. He's got a 40-day streak going...but can he hit 56?
Speaking of minor league action, Minor League Splits now has aggregated minor league recaps for every organization. I've got it bookmarked for the Astros, I imagine several of you will/have too.
Doug Brocail threw a simulated game yesterday and Astros.com's piece has nothing but positives to say about it. Yesterday, though, Alyson Footer was describing how he was getting crushed by Jason Michaels and Edwin Maysonet over twitter. Her best guess is that he doesn't get activated until the rosters expand.
Although no one really saw it coming, Michael Bourn is a star caliber player.
Brian McTaggart checks in with Mike Hampton to see how he is reacting to his potentially career ending injury. It sounds like Hampton's effort to rehab instead of have surgery is a last ditch effort to be able to pitch once more and the retire on his terms. He really doesn't want to hang'em up yet, though:

"I'll take it one day at a time," he said. "Who knows? I still like to pitch. I don't really know how to do anything else than play baseball. It's my profession, and once it's gone it's gone. I don't know if I can find anything else than I'm smart enough to do."

Brett Cecil won't live this one down for awhile, I imagine.
A trio of BtB articles: Finally, someone at BtB is beginning to question how a team could consistently outperform their PythagRecord. A fan post about the anatomy of a ground ball with tons of pretty looking graphs and interesting insights. Finally, part one of their "Effort in Sports" series sets up what should be a pretty interesting bit of discussion.

Game 120: Drew, Lester Secure Sox Sweep over Blue Jays

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 03:05:59 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

4 months ago: Boston Red Sox`s J.D. Drew watches his two-run home run, and second of the game, during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays in Toronto on Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press. Darren Calabrese)

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Final - 8.20.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Boston Red Sox	0	0	1	3	2	0	1	1	0	8	10	0
Toronto Blue Jays	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2
WP: Jon Lester (10 - 7) LP: Brett Cecil (5 - 2)

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The Sox' lineup was arguably at full strength for the first time since acquiring Victor Martinez, and it showed as the team scored 8 runs to complete a 3-game sweep of the Blue Jays on the road.

J.D. Drew got the Sox rolling early with a solo homer in the third inning followed with a 2-run shot in the 4^th. He'd single in his next 2 at bats to finish the night 4-4. Martinez also contributed with the long ball, drilling a Shawn Camp sinker deep to right. The Sox took advantage of 3 Toronto defensive miscues as well, including a 2-base error where starter Brett Cecil threw a ball out of play without time having ever been called. Cecil would give up 6 runs, 4 earned, before being chased in the 5^th inning.

Jon Lester came out struggling in the first inning, giving up back to back singles and a walk, loading the bases with 0 outs before getting a double play and a strike out to get out of the inning with only 1 run allowed. From there, he was nearly perfect, giving up just 1 hit and 1 walk over the next 7 innings, recording 5 strikeouts. Fernando Cabrera would close out the game, walking one and striking out Aaron Hill.

The Sox start a pivotal series against the Yankees tomorrow in Fenway while the Rangers get ready to take on the Rays in a battle of Wild Card threats. But perhaps more importantly, the Red Sox welcome back much missed commentator Jerry Remy for the first time in months as he returns to the booth Friday night.