SB Nation - Kevin Ahrens

Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 20:25:29 -0000

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5 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Brad Mills pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies during first inning baseball action in Toronto on Saturday, June 27, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Brett Wallace, 1B-3B, Grade B+: Didn't hit quite as well as expected last year but I still believe in the bat.

2) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B+: I like him a lot, too....could be a number two starter or closer, only role is unclear. Stuff slightly better than Drabek's I think.

3) Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade B+: Fully recovered from surgery and looks like a fine number two/three starter to me, assuming he keeps his head on straight.

4) Travis d'Arnaud, C, Grade B: Borderline B-. Numbers aren't spectacular but he's very young and I think the bat will continue to develop.

5) Chad Jenkins, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B, but would like to see some pro data. Could end up as a B+ next year if he puts things together quickly. A rotation of Drabek/Stewart/Jenkins could spin a lot of quality innings if everyone pans out.

6) David Cooper, 1B, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Disappointing season in Double-A but I can still see him developing into an Overbay-type regular. Be interesting to see how/if they get both Cooper and Wallace into the future lineup.

7) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B- but at age 27 it is hard to rate that grade. Great stuff, can close if the command is there.

8) Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Grade C+: Projectable and young with excellent command.

9) Carlos Perez, C, Grade C+: GCL catcher is a long way away, but has a good balance of offensive and defensive potential.

10) Brad Mills, LHP, Grade C+: Couldn't replicate '08 performance but '09 numbers at Vegas aren't bad considering the environment. Could be useful inning-eater control type.

11) Jake Marisnick, OF, Grade C+: Very toolsy, but need pro data to see how raw he is or is not before ranking higher.

12) Eric Thames, OF, Grade C+: I like this bat a lot, but he needs to stay healthy, apparently a big "if" for him.

13) Brad Emaus, 2B, Grade C+: I think he's better than what he showed at New Hampshire, could put up much bigger numbers in Vegas.

14) Ryan Schimpf, 2B, Grade C+: At best, a cross between Dustin Pedroia and Frank Catalanotto. At worst, a Tony Graffanino style utility player. Need data from higher levels to tell more.

15) Dan Farquhar, RHP, Grade C+: Command is an issue, but overpowering when on. Could help quickly as a relief option.

16) Robert Bell, RHP, Grade C+: Spectacular stats in the Florida State League, but need to see if stuff will hold up against better hitters. Certainly a sleeper.

17) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C: Baseball America likes him a lot more than this, but both personal observation and his performance in Vegas make me very skeptical at this point. Power is there, but his approach to hitting is terrible. I see him as a reserve catcher.

18) Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C: Awesome tools but right now he just doesn't do anything with the bat with no signs of growth. Injuries also an issue. But bottom line there are just guys I like better at this point.

19) Reidier Gonzalez, RHP, Grade C: Ground ball/control artist added to 40-man roster, could help as inning-eater or a bullpen asset.

20) Tim Collins, LHP, Grade C: Continues to put up outstanding statistics, pretty good stuff considering his 5-7 height. Should make a fine LOOGY. Note that other Grade C guys listed below (particularly Ahrens, Dopirak, Liebel, Magnuson, Tolisano, and Pastornicky) could easily slot in here, but I wanted to point Collins out since he's very interesting.

OTHER GRADE C players: Kevin Ahrens, 3B; Brian Dopirak, 1B; Ryan Goins, SS; Yan Gomes, C; K. C. Hobson, 1B; Andrew Liebel, RHP; Trystan Magnuson, RHP; Darin Mastroianni, OF; Tyler Pastornicky, SS; Luis Perez, LHP; Gustavo Pierre, SS; Welinton Ramirez, OF; Robert Ray, RHP; Moises Sierra, OF; Egan Smith, LHP; John Tolisano, 2B; Daniel Webb, RHP; Kenny Wilson, OF; Zech Zincola ,RHP.

The Blue Jays system was thin, and greatly benefits by the recent addition of Wallace, Drabek, and d'Arnaud this month. Stewart and Roenicke were acquired in trades this summer.

The Jays under former general manager J.P. Ricciardi took a lot of flak for focusing in polished college players in the draft. However, even when they brought in tools players, such as the high school hitters drafted in 2007 and various Latin American investments, the results were poor, leading me to wonder if the problems are as much in player development and coaching as much as in the drafting. The debacle of the 2009 draft is a huge blow: failing to sign the second, third, and fourth round picks speaks to serious problems with the Jays organization as a whole and hampers depth at the lower levels of the system for '10 and beyond.

In any event, the trades of the last six months help, and even beyond that the system is not completely barren, particularly with pitching. There are the makings of a good bullpen in the system, and if the top group of pitching comes close to meeting expectations, the future rotation looks solid. The hitting looks thin.

Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Condition is In: Who Moves Up, Who Moves Down on our Prospect List

Tom Dakers — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:48:37 -0000

As a start towards re-doing our prospect list I thought we'd take a look at the guys on our current list and see which ones improved their status with the team and which ones likely dropped back or right off the prospect list. Then we can start looking at who should be on the new list.

I'll list the players in the spots they are at on our current list, which was put together about this time last year.

1.Travis Snider. Snider got 241 major league at bats, in which he hit .241/.331/.430, not great but not bad considering he was just 21, the 6^th youngest player in the AL. He also had 175 at bats at Triple-A Las Vegas hitting a terrific .337/.431/.663 there. Clearly he wasn't one of Cito's favourites, which puts him in a class with Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado, who have roughly 800 major league home runs between them, so not exactly bad company. If you consider Travis a prospect still, he didn't do much to hurt his status as our number one prospect, but I figure we will graduate him off the prospects list and consider him a major leaguer now. It is always possibly that Cito will decide he's not ready for the majors, this spring, and give his at bats to someone like Kevin Millar. Then, he'd be a prospect and a darn good one still, considering he'd just be 22 years old. But, please Cito, play him every day next year.

2. Brett Cecil. Cecil got 17 major league starts last season, going 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA. Not great, not terrible. He was just 22 years old, so still pretty young for a lefty starter. He pitched another 49 innings in Vegas going 1-5 there with a 5.69 ERA. He was moved to the majors before we likely would have liked him to be, with all the injuries we had to the starting staff. If you consider him a prospect still, he's still a good one, just 23 next year. He'd likely be moved down a few spots on our list, but we'll likely ‘graduate' him off the prospect list.

3. J.P. Arencibia. J.P. did not have the season we hoped he'd have. Promoted to Triple-A, he hit just .236/.284/.444 with 21 homers. I guess calling him a Rod Barajas type would be fair, nice power, low average, wouldn't take a walk if his life depended on it. He'll likely move down some on our list, but he's still a decent prospect. He'll be 24 next year so he can't afford another season like this one, but several good players need two years at Triple-A to find their way.

4. David Cooper. In just his second year of pro ball he was moved up to Double-A New Hampshire. It didn't go well, .258/.340/.389. I would think they will start him at Double-A again and hope he moves up quick. He is just 22 and just 2 years removed from college ball, so there is time to right the ship, but I'd expect he'll be dropped several spots down on our next list. Can't write off a guy at his age though.

5. Justin Jackson. Justin moved up to high-A Dunedin to start this year. It didn't go well, he hit .213/.321/.239 and he missed some time with a ‘frayed labrum'. He's still young, just 20 this past year and has good speed (17 steals), can take a walk (39 in 249 at bats) and his defence looks good. He has got the tools, just has to make it all work. We got to see him a few times in spring training and he didn't look out of place. All that said, he likely to move down a few spots on our list. I'm not sure that I don't think Tyler Pastornicky is a better prospect in the long run.

6. Kevin Ahrens. Continuing our list of prospects that disappointed this year, Kevin was moved up to high-A Dunedin for this season and forgot to bring his bat, hitting just .215/.282/.302. Again just 20 and knows how to take a walk but we really would have liked better from him. He'll likely drop several spots on the prospect list. Don't totally write him off at 20 but he's going to have to pick it up next year.

7. Scott Campbell. A personal favourite, he played in Dunedin, New Hamshire and Las Vegas this year and really didn't take a step forward, .272/.368/.356. He started slow then got injured when it looked like he was turning things around. Pretty much a lost year for him. The Jays tried him at 3B some this year, which I don't understand at all, he doesn't have the power for a corner infield spot. I'd give him a mulligan because of the injuries but he was 24 last season, so it is tough to see him as a prospect unless he does something terrific in spring training. Alex Anthopoulos obviously doesn't think too much of him since he's picked up a couple of middle infield types in the past few weeks off waivers: Mike McCoy and Jarrett Hoffpauir. Much as I like Campbell, I can't see him being on the next prospects list.

8. Brad Mills. Brad made a couple of starts for us back in June when virtually every other starting pitcher in our system was hurt. They didn't go well. He made 14 starts in Triple-A Vegas going just 2-8 but with a decent (for the Pacific Coast League) ERA of 4.06. He had a good strikeout to walk rate 35 walks to 72 strikeouts. He had a good spring training with us, he was in the running for a opening day rotation spot, right up until the end. He gives up more fly balls (and therefore homers) than you would like to see. And he will be 25 next season, not old for a lefty starter but time is running out. I think he'll move a few spots down on our prospect list but with luck and work could make the rotation.

9. Ricky Romero. He's graduated off the prospect list. I think I argued that he shouldn't be so high on our list last year. Shows what I know. He is 25 next year and I'd like to have the paychecks he has in his future.

10. John Tolisano. Like fellow 20 year olds Jackson and Ahrens, John played at Dunedin last year and did not do well, hitting .232/.305/.379. Like the other two, he knows how to take a walk and is young enough to overcome it. He did show some power (12 homers) and wasn't doing too bad before just a horrible August that hurt his numbers. That said, he's got good power for a 2B and is young enough to bounce back from this year, but he'll be moved back on our prospect list.

We'll look at the guys that were 11-20 on our list in the next couple of days and 21-30 soon after that. Then we'll take a look at ones that could jump on our next list.

Ain't Gonna Work on Maggie's Farm No More: Jays' 2009 Minor League Affiliates' Season in Review, Part I

hugo — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:00:32 -0000

Hi everyone. Before we update our top prospects list, let's take a broader view at what has been going on among the Jays' minor-league affiliates this season. Part I will focus on the lower-level affiliates, Part II on the teams closer to the majors.

Gulf Coast League Blue Jays: The GCL Jays played slightly above .500 ball this season and did so with a number of 2009 draftees and other very young players. 18-year old Carlos Perez (the GCL Jays' MVP) did a great job behind the plate, batting .291/.364/.433. 17-year old shorstop Gustavo Pierre held his own at the plate with 18 extra-base hits in 48 games. Although he did make 14 errors, that's nothing unusual for a shortstop that young in his first taste of pro ball, since his defense is said to be solid overall.

On the mound, Matt Fields dominated, but he was quite old for the level so he was expected to. Ryan Shopshire, a 2009 draftee, was also old for the GCL, but pitched great in his 8 starts and was promoted straight to Lansing by season's end. Aaron Loup, the southpaw 2009 Tulane draftee (go Green Wave!), pitched only in relief for the GCL, probably to keep his innings down as he was more of a starter in college. Loup did a nice job in relief, with a 19/3 K/BB ratio in his 16 1/3 innings and a 3.86 ERA, especially finishing the season strong (he only gave up 2 runs in his last 14 innings).

Auburn Doubledays: Sean Ochinko, the 2009 draftee out of LSU (Aaron Hill and Brian Tallet's alma mater) did a tremendous job from behind the plate, batting .324/.382/.527, with 6 home runs and 20 doubles in 52 games and earning team MVP honors. Very nice. Shortstop Ryan Goins, another 2009 collegiate draftee, didn't show a lot of power but held his own at the plate, earning a promotion to Lansing by the season's end. Yan Gomes, Auburn's other primary catcher, and another 2009 draftee, also did a very fine job at the plate, batting .296/.363/.444, and left-handed hitting Ryan Schimpf, another 2009 LSU graduate (the Jays have really mined the Pelican State in their drafting made a nice debut at second base. On the less encouraging side, 2009 draftee Lance Durham struggled in his professional debut, and toolsy centrefield types Marcus Brisker and Eric Eiland showed very little and Eiland especially looks to be in big trouble as a prospect.

On the pitching side, lefties Egan Smith (a 2.56 ERA in 9 starts, 36/11 K/BB ratio over 38 innings) and Matthew Wright (73 Ks in 59 2/3 innings, with 23 walks and a 3.77 ERA in 16 appearances (12 starts)) and righty Dave Sever (3.34 ERA in 14 games (12 starts) with 57 Ks and just 15 walks over 67 innings) all had very nice seasons from Auburn's rotation. Wright pitched for Auburn (reasonably well) last season, while Smith and Sever were 2009 draftees. Smith was named a 2009 NY-Penn League all-star.

Lansing Lugnuts: Unlike some ohters, we didn't count Johermyn Chavez out after an awful 2008 campaign and he rewarded us (not to mention himself) with a fantastic season for Lansing. The 20-year old batted .283/.346/.474 with 22 doubles, 6 triples, and 21 home runs (2nd in the league) as an underaged hitter in a tough hitters' league. After a scorching start, he tapered off a bit in the late spring, but came roaring back to end the season, which was great to see. Fellow outfielder Welinton Ramirez split his season between Auburn and Lansing and played well for both. Brian Van Kirk (.278/.389/.451 for Lansing) put up solid numbers, earning promotions to Dunedin and, shortly thereafter, New Hampshire. Ty Pastornicky did a very nice job as Lansing's SS, not showing any power, but holding his own at the plate, playing excellent defense, and stealing 51 bases. He was promoted to Dunedin when Justin Jackson went down with a frayed labrum. Balbino Fuenmayor, still just 19 though in his 3rd season with the Jays' organization, had an up-and-down season for Lansing (.663 OPS), but certainly too promising to give up on considering his age. Kenneth Wilson, yet another toolsy CF type, struggled mightily, and none of Jon Talley, A.J. Jimenez, or Chris House had great seasons behind the plate for Lansing (though House was starting to look better as the season neared its end).

On the mound, Henderson Alvarez (92/19 K/BB ratio in 23 starts (124 IP), with a 9-6 record and 3.47 ERA) was very good, but many of Lansing's other starters struggled, though not Charles Huggins, who was so good in his 7 starts (1.57 ERA, 40/11 K/BB ratio in 34 1/3 innings) that he quickly pitched himself out of the league and into Dunedin (where he also excelled). Joel Carreno made good 14 starts for Lansing. Frank Gailey did a fine job out of the bullpen.

Dunedin Jays: Moses Sierra was another guy who struggled in 2008 but had a very nice season in 2009, earning MVP honors for Dunedin and hitting .286/.360/.393 before his promotion to New Hampshire (where he continued to excel, albeit in just 34 at-bats before the season ended) and showcasing fine defense and an exceptional arm in the outfield. The Jays like Sierra, as they showed when they gave him an extended look in 2009 spring training despite him being a 20-year old outfielder who had a mediocre-at-best 2008 season for Lansing. Sierra wasn't the only quality outfielder for Lansing - in fact, his fly-shagging bretheren Darrin Mastroianni and Eric Thames (.874 OPS in 216 plate appearances) also had big seasons - in Thames' case unfortunately curtailed by injury, something that's proving to be a continued thorn in the side of his development (he could've easily been in AA this season but for his injury). Centrefielder Mastroianni (.325/.426/.390) showed a real knack for getting on base at the top of the order and also earned a promotion to New Hampshire before the season let out. Catcher Jonathan Jaspe hit well but really needs to learn to take a walk (just 17 in 279 plate appearance) while fellow catcher (and yet another LSU product) Matthew Liuzza knows how to walk but was old for the level at 25. Adam Loewen was an interesting story - not unexpectedly, he started slow - no surprise for a hitter's first taste of professional ball being at high-A. But he picked up steam each month was better than the last - until August, that is, when he, somewhat unexpectedly fell off. Overall, Loewen's season (.236/.340/.355) was still pretty encouraging for his first taste of professional ball, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him take a step forward next season.

The trio of 2008 high-school draftees and infield prospects, Kevin Ahrens, Justin Jackson, and John Tolisano, continued to move up together through the system this year, but it wasn't a great season for the three overall. Tolisano (.232/.305/.379, with 12 home runs) had his moments and was looking at an encouraging season before a putrid August dragged down his numbers. Jackson got off to an awful start that injuries robbed him of the chance to overcome and eventually needed labrum surgery, while Ahrens just didn't do anything at the plate until August, when he started to snap out of it a bit. I can't imagine any of them will be moving up to start next season, which puts the Jays in a tough spot with respect to the shortstop position, where Pastornicky outplayed Jackson this season.

On the mound, Andrew Liebel's horrible 5-13 record masks the fact that he was actually pretty good (3.63 ERA, 118/42 K/BB ratio in 156 innings) He threw a lot of quality innings this season (he also made two starts for New Hampshire, in which he pitched splendidly) so he shouldn't feel bad about the record. Kenny Rodriguez also pitched quite well in his 12 starts (2.43 ERA, 63/23 K/BB ratio), and Vincent Bongiovanni wasn't bad either (4.44 ERA with solid K/BB numbers). In relief, we know all about Tim Collins (99 Ks in 64 2/3 innings, with 28 walks and a 2.37 ERA), who hit a bump when he was promoted to New Hampshire, but Robert Bell (112 Ks and just 22 walks) in 96 innings consisting of 10 starts, 32 relief appearances) also put together a very nice season (2.43 ERA). Trystan Magnuson had a decent season out of the pen as well, while Zach Dials and Danny Farquar started at Dunedin but soon moved up due to dominating performance.

Join us next time for AA and AAA, and let us know in the comments which minor league players at these levels caught your eye, good or bad, this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 18:00:15 -0000

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Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero (The Canadian Press,John Ross)

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Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published December 8, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The first grade listed is the OLD GRADE.

1) Travis Snider, OF, Grade A-: Hit .242/.292/.394 in the majors, .314/.409/.654 in Triple-A. I still believe in the bat and you should too.

2) Brett Cecil, LHP, Grade B+: 4.35 ERA with 54/28 K/BB in 70 major league innings, 81 hits allowed. Gets lots of grounders; I think he's going to be very good as long as he remains healthy.

3) David Cooper, 1B, Grade B: Hitting .255/.333/.372 for Double-A New Hampshire. Very disappointing, no power, mediocre batting average and OBP, looks like I overrated him. BB/K ratio is decent, so he still has a chance to improve but needs to make progress quickly in '10.

4) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade B-: Hitting .224/.272/.409 for Triple-A Las Vegas. Poor strike zone judgment is holding production back. Good with the glove but has needs big adjustments with the bat.

5) Justin Jackson, SS, Grade B-: Hitting .213/.321/.289 in the Florida State League, with 17 steals. Power has completely vanished, and prone to wild performance swings (.155 in April, .367 in May, .217 in June, .150 in July). Still has tools, but extremely raw. Out with shoulder trouble.

6) Brad Mills, LHP, Grade B-: 4.06 ERA with 72/35 K/BB in 84 innings for Las Vegas. Out with bruised ribs.

7) Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .214/.285/.282 in the Florida State League. Another guy the Jays drafted for tools who is not improving.

8) Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C+: 10-5, 3.66 with 90/44 K/BB in 116 major league innings. One of the best rookie pitchers in baseball, somewhat surprising after a mediocre minor league career. The talent was always there, but he lacked consistency before.

9) Mark Rzepczynski, LHP, Grade C+: 2.86 ERA with 104/40 K/BB in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 4.38 ERA with 37/19 K/BB in 37 innings in the majors. Looks good so far.

10) Scott Campbell, 2B, Grade C+: .263/.357/.360 between Las Vegas and New Hampshire. Controls the zone well, but lack of power limits production.

11) Brad Emaus, 2B, Grade C+: .255/.339/.384 at New Hampshire. Good plate discipline, has a little pop, but not repeating '08 numbers at the higher level.

12) Eric Thames, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .308/.391/.442 in the Florida State League, but limited to just 42 games by injury. A good player but appears to be fragile.

13) Luis Perez, LHP, Grade C+: 3.85 ERA with 93/52 K/BB in 131 innings in Double-A. Another ground ball-generating lefty, a type the Jays seem to like.

14) Andrew Liebel, RHP, Grade C: 4.02 ERA with 105/37 K/BB in 132 innings in the Florida State League, 133 hits. Throws strikes, will have to prove that stuff can hold up at higher levels.

15) Tyler Pastornicky, SS, Grade C: Hitting .272/.342/.341 in the Midwest League, with 51 steals. Lots of speed, decent on-base skills, good glove, but lacks power.

16) Robert Ray, RHP, Grade C: Held his own in four major league starts, but out most of the season with shoulder problems.

17) Jon Tolisano, 2B, Grade C: Hitting .240/.311/.419 in the Florida State League. Showing some pop but batting average and OBP are issues.

18) Markus Brisker, OF, Grade C: Hitting .139/.216/.165 with 19 steals in 77 games between Midwest League and NY-P. Lots of speed, can't hit. Still has a cool name.

19) Chad Beck, RHP, Grade C: 5.88 ERA with 62/19 K/BB in 83 innings in the Midwest League, 95 hits. Decent walk rate, but other numbers mediocre and disappointing considering his age (24).

20) Tim Collins, LHP, Grade C: 2.01 ERA with 96/25 K/BB in 63 innings in the Florida State League, 42 hits. Exceptional K/IP and H/IP numbers. And he's just 5-7, 155 pounds in soaking wet clothes after a huge thanksgiving meal.

This is a good news/bad news system. Several of the hitters are failing to develop, including young tools guys like Jackson and Ahrens, and college types like Cooper and Arencibia. On the other hand, Cecil, Romero, and Rzepczynski give three very impressive young lefties on the major league staff. Romero is a huge surprise considering how disappointing his minor league career was, but he was the sixth-overall pick at one point and the talent was always there. Snider will be great, he just needs more experience.

I Work These Hands to Bleed; I've Got These Mouths to Feed: Prospect Midseason Report, vol. 1

hugo — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:03:19 -0000

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Ricky Romero has leapt tall prospect lists in a single bound, jumping all the way from the Jays' 9th-best prospect to one of the AL's better starting pitchers thusfar this season. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Thanks to Ryan Adams (not your inferior Canadian B-Ryan version and definitely don't call him that unless you want to be evicted from the 9:30 club) for today's title, from the beautiful sad song "In My Time of Need," off Heartbreaker, his finest record By the way, best shows I ever saw (and there have been hundreds if not thousands) was an all-acoustic show - Tegan and Sara and Ryan Adams, with Gillian Welch and David Rawlings. Unfortunately, Ryan Adams also put on, by far, the worst show I ever saw, so there's that). I thought it appropriate since we will be looking at the Jays' farm system and the song is about a farmer. Anyway, we'll be looking at the Jays top 10 prospects, as we defined them in this LOTR themed post. Things have obviously changed, but we won't update the rankings until later on.

1. Travis Snider. Moonraker has had a tough time of it. Travis essentially was given the starting left field job before Spring Training even starter, and he did have a fine spring. Unfortunately that only carried about two weeks into the regular season before cracks started showing themselves. Travis couldn't hit much of anything after that, and soon found himself back at AAA. Sadly, Moonraker didn't even have a chance to get his feet under him before going down to shoulder and back injuries, and he hasn't even swung a bat in weeks. He'll try to get on track now that he's been reactivated and could be a September callup (or even earlier, though I tend to doubt that) for the team. Looking behind the numbers, Snider wasn't the victim of bad luck in the majors- just bad hitting. Quite the opposite, his numbers are actually better than his 13.9% line drive rate would suggest. Travis needs to refne his eye at the plate (6.6% walk rate this season, no different than his callup last year) before he finds consistent big-league success. That said, there's no reason to think his future is any brighter than it was before the season - the most worrying thing about this year isn't the 21-year old's hiccup, but the injury (from which he was just activated). It wouldn't surprise me to see him put together a nice second half and head into next year ready to make some waves.

2. Brett Cecil - Cecil wasn't expected to pitch in the bigs this early, particularly after flaming out early on in his spring training bid, but a steady stream of injuries has caused him to make 6 starts and find his way into the Jays' rotation. His 5.09 ERA doesn't look very impressive, but in truth Cecil has been quite good, with 4 good starts and 2 ERA-inflatingly poor ones. Brett has a 24/10 K/BB ratio over his 35 innings, and is more the victim of bad luck on home runs than anything else. With his sinking fastball, Cecil has always had devastatingly good HR rates in the minors, but he ran into a patch of HRs in the majors, particularly in one start against Boston in which he yielded 4 long balls. Cecil displayed a very good fastball, albeit one over which he could have more control, a world-class slider, and a decent changeup. I think his curve needs some work; he seemed to have trouble throwing it for strikes and he hung the occasional one too. With so many Jay pitchers hurt, it looks like Cecil has some more opportunity to show what he can do, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him put together a nice second half. I would like to see the team leave him in the majors at this point unless he pitches his way down.

3. J.P. Arencibia - Arencibia essentially entered this season with two main goals - continue to work on his defense, and develop an improved approach at the plate. While his defense has continued to progress, his approach at the plate has been another story. I thought the Jays were a little aggressive in starting Arencibia at AAA, and he has had some problems there - hitting just .236/.291/.417. That said, he has improved his walk rate - he already has 16 walks this season (in 287 plate appearances) after drawing just 18 all of last season (528 PAs). It's not a drastic difference and still is just a 5.6% walk rate, but it is something. While Arencibia's hitting hasn't been fantastic, he has turned it on some recently, and while he only has 8 HRs so far after hitting 27 last season between AA and AAA, he has 23 doubles and a triple already, which is encouraging. Unfortunately, he was recently put on the DL - let's hope it's not a serious injury. Although Arencibia hasn't progressed as fast as some of us would have hoped, he is holding his own and remains one of the better catching prospects in the game. He might not start 2010 in the majors, but he could be an early callup and an impact player that season.

4. David Cooper - Cooper looked like he was on the fast track to the majors after he jumped from Auburn to Dunedin and then, just as quickly, to New Hampshire last season, but his development has hit a snag so far this season. Cooper has shown a nice eye at the plate (10.4% walk rate) but hasn't shown much power yet (19 extra-base hits, including just 4 home runs). At 22, he has plenty of time to figure out double A. That said, a big second half would go a long way toward demonstrating that his first-round selection in 2008 was a wise one. As an underpowered first baseman with subpar defense, the margin for error isn't large with Cooper.

5. Justin Jackson - Jackson entered this season possessing a strong defensive reputation but some question marks as to how he might develop offensively. That's still very much true of the 20-year old. Jackson looked pretty good in spring training but really struggled to start the season, striking out in over 1/3 of his at-bats and not hitting much of anything. He returned from injury and was good at first but, since then, has continued to struggle at the plate, hitting just .233/.354/.291 on the season and .217/.360/.275 this month. The walk rates are very nice (15.6% this season) but that won't last if he can't start hitting more. He continues to strike out at a rather alarming rate (36%) so making consistent contact will be his primary goal for now. That said, Jackson is young for Dunedin and so it's not a huge surprise to see him struggle in the first half. The key will be seeing if he develops at all this second half. In the field, he continues to draw accolades, though he has also made 16 errors thusfar.

6. Kevin Ahrens - Ahrens, another 20-year old playing at Dunedin, has had some similar problems to Jackson - namely, making contact. Ahrens is hitting just .230/.307/.305 and not showing much in the way of power. The switch-hitter has been a bit unlucky on balls in play, it looks like, and, unlike Jackson, he hasn't had much of a problem with strikouts (22%), though he also hasn't walked as much (9.5%). Bottom line, both Jackson and Ahrens are practically teenagers playing A+ ball, so that they are struggling isn't a shock.

7. Scott Campbell - a bit of a personal favourite, Campbell continues in his quest to become the first native New Zealander to play in the major leagues. Campbell impressed a lot of people this spring after a very strong AA season last year, but of course there was no room for him on the big league team so it was a foregone conclusion that he'd end up in Las Vegas. AAA wasn't kind to Campbell the first time around, and he was unlucky in that just when he started going, he got hurt and missed several weeks. He recently returned and was doing quite well in AA, working his way back up, but then got hurt again. It's quickly turning into a lost season for the Kiwi and he'll try to get healthy and get himself back into AAA and hopefully put up some better numbers.

8. Brad Mills - Mills has had an interesting season. He drew a lot of good remarks in the spring, staying in the race for a rotation spot until the bitter end, when Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond won out instead. But Mills has had an up-and-down season since then. He started off terribly in Las Vegas, walking more batters than he struck out in April, before settling down in May. He struggled in June, though, until he was somewhat surprisingly called up when Casey Janssen and Doc Halladay went on the DL. With the Jays, neither of Mills' two starts could be said to be successful, but he did show his potential striking out 9 over his 7 2/3 innings. However, he had a ton of trouble throwing strikes (7.04 BB/9) and when he did, they got pounded (4 HR and a .442 BABIP against). Mills needs to keep the ball down (his flyball rates are troubling) and get ahead in the count to be successful, and he wasn't able to do that for the Jays. Back in AAA, though, Mills got back on track immediately with a gem of a start yesterday - 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 7 Ks, and just 1 walk. His overall minor league numbers aren't bad, especially for the PCL, so it's just a question of doing it consistently.

9. Ricky Romero - What is there to say about Romero? Tom already covered Romero's progress, and it has been most impressive. I'm not sure he will pitch in the minors again (save a rehab start here or there). Yes, Romero has been the beneficiary of good luck (87% of runners stranded isn't sustainable) and/or good defense (4.04 FIP, compared to a 2.85 ERA). But he has also made his own luck - a sub 3 BB/9 (2.97) and 7.56 K/9 is extremely impressive for a rookie lefthander, and foretells continued success, as does his ability to get ahead of hitters. Romero has a good fastball, nice breaking pitches, and a very impressive changeup that he is able to throw in any count, making it a formidable weapon. His makeup has also been very impressive - he seems to exhibit excellent poise on the mound and seems both tough and coachable. The East LA kid has gone long way, jumping from 9th best Jays' prospect (and we got some raised eyebrows for ranking him this highly) to one of the better pitchers in the AL this season. If we can keep him away from pollen, we've got ourselves a keeper, I'd venture to say.

10. John Tolisano - Despite being consistently ranked lower than his draftmates with whom he has come up the system, Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson (including by us, but we like him more than most), Tolisano has performed more impessively than either of them at each level. At least, at the plate (I hear mixed things about his defense at second). Tolisano is hitting a respectable .255/.319/.427 this season, with 8 home runs thusfar. He has a decent eye at the plate, makes decent contact, and is showing some power (.173 Iso-p) and is putting together a respectable season at high-A, pretty good for a 20-year old. Tolisano has been hot recently, so a big second half is a possibility.

Well, folks, that's all for now. We'll cover the next 10 at some future date.

I'm Standing on a Bridge In a Town Where I Lived As a Kid: Blue Jays System Minor League Report

hugo — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:27:03 -0000

Hi everyone. It's been a little while, I figured we should use the off-day to take a look at how the minor-league affiliates, and, more importantly, the young Jay-to-be hopefuls, are doing.

Las Vegas:

Travis Snider is still out of action with a shoulder injury and isn't set to start swinging a bat again until July. David Dellucci has been quiet for the 51s, hitting just .250/.242/.344, with three doubles over 33 plate appearances. Michael Barrett recently returned to AAA (he's only played 2 games there). J.P. Arencibia has been ice-cold recently -- after a hot May, he is hitting only .200/.235/.262 in June. He does have 19 doubles and 8 home runs on the season but things aren't going well at the moment at all. Randy Ruiz has always put up big minor-league numbers and this season is no exception - he has 41 extra base hits (including 15 home runs) already this season and a .972 OPS.

On the mound, the 51s rotation has taken a hit with Brad Mills and Brett Cecil both up at the big club. Fabio Castro has slowed down after a hot start at AAA - he's now sporting just a 30/26 K/BB ratio over 63 2/3 innings, though he still has a nice 3.11 ERA and a winning record. David Purcey has two successful starts in a row and his walk rate continues to recede to respectable levels. Bryan Bullington is putting up pretty good numbers in the bullpen, with over a strikeout per inning and a 35/6 K/BB ratio.

New Hampshire:

Scott Campbell is back from injury and working his way up the minors - In 25 plate appearances at AA, he's hitting a Campbell-esque .300/.440/.400 with as many walks (5) as strikeouts and has yet to make an error, playing 2nd and 3rd. I imagine he'll be back with Las Vegas soon. Brian Dopirak continues to rake -- he's hitting .307/.369/.580 on the season and is even better than that so far in June (1.020 OPS) with 39 extra-base hits (16 HRs) already. He could be ready to move up, but Randy Ruiz and Brett Harper are entrenched at AAA at the 1st base and DH spots. Other than those two, there's not much offense to speak of - catcher Brian Jeroloman's bat (.706 OPS) remains cold, and second baseman Brad Emaus, who looked so good for the Jays in spring training, has really fallen off, hitting just .127/.182/.197 in June.

On the mound, Marc Rzepczynski has been good all season, but has really turned it up in June, where he's 1-0 with a 0.45 ERA over his 3 starts and, still better, a 21/7 K/BB ratio over 20 innings. His season totals are similarly excellent (2.93 ERA, 88/36 K/BB ratio over 76 2/3 innings and an excellent groundball ratio) despite being extremely hit-unlucky. It's been a very successful half-season for Zep. Reidier Gonzalez and Luis Perez have also done a nice job out of New Hampshire's rotation.

Dunedin:

Dunedin's outfield has been excellent all season, and all three: centrefielder Darrin Mastroianni, leftfielder Eric Thames, and rightfielder Moises Sierra, were all named to the Florida State League North Division all star team. Mastroianni has a .325/.390/.426 line, with 32 steals, while Thames and Sierra have similar overall lines - both showing good power for young hitters and hitting well recently. The trio of early 2007 draftee infielders -- John Tolisano, Justin Jackson, and Kevin Ahrens, have done less well. That said, Tolisano is having a nice June (.311/.328/.475) with an extra-base hit every 10 at-bats so far. Jackson has also been better this month -- not as good as he was in May upon returning from his injury, but OPSing a respectable .726 in June and striking out much less (just 11 times in 56 plate appearances this month). Ahrens, though, has been just as cold (.588 OPS in June v. .576 over the season). Adam Loewen is still waiting for things to click (.584 OPS this season) and is still waiting for his first home run.

On the pitching side - 2008 draftee Andy Liebel's 2-8 record is misleading - Liebel has a very nice 65/20 K/BB ratio over his 77 1/3 innings and a steady 1.33 WHIP. He's been especially strong in June and is having a fine first full pro season. Kenny Rodriguez (5-2, 1.99 ERA, 48/21 K/BB ratio over 54 1/3 IP, 1.12 Whip) is also having a fine season in the rotation, while Trystan Magnuson, Daniel Farquar, and Tim Collins are pitching very well out of the bullpen -- Collins has a ridiculous 57 Ks in 37 1/3 innings, and isn't walking many (14) to do it. Farquar (23/11 K/BB ratio over 17 relief innings for a 0.53 ERA) and Collins joined the aforementioned trio of outfielders and infielder Raul Barron on the all-star team.

Lansing:

Outfielder Johermyn Chavez had a bit of a May dropoff after a very hot April, but has picked things up a bit in June - with 5 home runs already this month. On the season, he has 12 home runs, 11 doubles, and 5 triples, serious power for a 20-year old hitter in the tough-on-hitters Midwest League. His overall line is .266/.331/.500. He's learning how to take a walk too - he has 21 walks in 265 plate appearances this season after drawing just 25 in 427 plate appearances last season. Shortstop Ty Pastornicky hasn't figured out Midwest League pitching yet (.261/.339/.312) but he can draw a walk and he's been all over the bases (31/40 in steal attempts).

On the mound, Charles Huggins was so good (1.57 ERA) he was called up to Dunedin. Chase Lirette, who recovered from shoulder surgery about halfway through the season last year, is old for the level but off to a very good start (1.87 ERA, 24/8 K/BB ratio) so he could move up soon as well.

Auburn:

The season has only just started for the Doubledays. Some players on the team who have already seen action with whom you might be familiar are 2008 draftee Marcus Brisker (OF), 2007 draftee Eric Eiland (CF), and 2009 draftees Lance Durham (son of Leon, also a first baseman) and Jonathan Fernandez (son of Tony, also a shorstop)

Bring on the Major Leagues: Jays Minor League Update

hugo — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:13:26 -0000

Las Vegas

J.P. Arencibia has begun to pick up a bit, with 2 home runs thusfar in May, but he is still not getting on base (.245 OBP). Scott Campbell, on the other hand, is slowly getting his bat where it needs to be - but slowly. He was 1-3 with a triple and a walk yesterday, and the fact that he was walked (10) more times than struck out (7) even during a slump is a pretty good sign going forward.

Fabio Castro has been quite good after quickly pitching his way up from New Hamphsire - over his 2 starts for Las Vegas, he's got a 2.19 ERA and went 7 strong innings (no runs, 2 hits, 2 walks, 3 Ks) in his last start. He could see the majors soon. Out of the recently exiled, Brian Burres surprisingly put up the better start than David Purcey in their first go around. Purcey was tough to hit in his 6 1/3 innings but he walked 5 batters (striking out 6) so still has some more work to do. Burres went seven strong yesterday and gave up just one run, walking 6 and striking out 1. I point this out because I'm a little afraid of him pitching for the Jays again. Jonah Bayliss had his perfect start ruined with a disastrous outing (1/3 of an inning, 6 earned runs). Dirk Hayhurst seems to struggle whenever he's starting (9.49 ERA, 7/5 K/BB ratio) but do well when pitching out of the bullpen (1.59 ERA, 4/0 K/BB, .090 batting average against).

New Hampshire

Brian Dopirak continues to hit well - he's batting .297/.357/.515 with 5 home runs and 7 doubles but has slowed down very recently after a torrid end to April. A callup could be in order. Catcher Brian Jeroloman has cooled off considerably, though he has started to show his trademark plate discipline. David Cooper continues to hold his own (.345 OBP) which is very good, but he hasn't shown much in the way of power yet (.375 slg, .104 Iso-P). Brad Emaus has picked it up a bit and is now hitting .294/.360/.441/.801 with 10 extra-base hits.

Even with Castro gone, New Hampshire's pitching has continued to be stellar. Marc Rzepczynski is leading the way with 41 Ks in 32 1/3 innings over his 6 starts, for a 3.06 ERA. Reidier Gonzalez, Luis Perez, and Randy Boone have also done very nice jobs. Brandon Magee was promoted from Dunedin and will make some starts for New Hampshire now that Castro is gone.

Dunedin

Eric Thames and Moses Sierra continue to swing very hot bats. Thames is hitting .333 with 3 extra-base hits, 10 RBI, and 8 walks to just 4 Ks over his last 10 games. He's looking like a draft-day steal for the Jays. As for Sierra, the rifle-armed right-fielder is batting .305/.394/.500 and you have to love that power. Another guy who is really hitting well is John Tolisano - he has been red hot recently with 4 home runs, a .300 average, and 7 walks over his last 10 games. Over the season, he is hitting an impressive .262/.366/.541. Tolisano is outpacing his more-heralded fellow draftees - Justin Jackson and Kevin Ahrens. Both have dealt with some nagging injuries (Ahrens just returned) and are really struggling.
Adam Loewen has 12 games under his belt but hasn't done much yet.

On the pitching side, as we mentioned, Magee earned his promotion. Trystan Magnuson could be close behind - the big righty has done a nice job for Dunedin with a 2.95 ERA and 2/1 K/BB ratio over his 18 1/3 innings. Tim Collins has been even more dominant, with almost twice as many strikeouts (31) as innings pitched (16 1/3) and a miniscule .67 Whip. Andy Liebel has also pitched okay in his first full season, with a nice strikeout to walk ratio.

Lansing

Johermyn Chavez continues to hit everything in sight. The toolsy Venezuelan outfielder is now hitting .333/.371/.678/1.049 with 15 extra-base hits (half of his total hit output), including 6 home runs and 4 triples. 2008 draftee third baseman Mark Sobelewski is doing a decent job, hitting .286/.364/.388 and nice walk (about 10% of plate appearances) and strikeout numbers (less than 20% of PAs). Most of the other Lansing hitters aren't doing much yet, though shorstop Ty Pastornicky is picking it up a bit at the plate.

As for rehabbing Jays, Casey Janssen (shoulder) is scheduled to pitch for Dunedin today, with Ricky Romero (oblique) going tomorrow. B.J. Ryan is also beginning his rehab stint with Dunedin. Oh, and thanks to Pavement for today's title.

I Came to Praise and Honor and Identify My Children: Minor League Update

hugo — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:35:19 -0000

Hi everyone. It's been a little while since our last minor league update, so I figured it was time for another one. With the Jays' players dropping like flies, it's good to know how the kids are doing. Today's post comes from a song off Common's Like Water for Chocolate record, one of my favourite hip-hop records.

Las Vegas

Wade Miller had a decent start for the 51s last night, although it was nothing special. Miller managed to get through 5 innings yielding just 2 runs on 4 hits, though he walked 3 and just struck out 1. Better than Burres? We may very well find out soon. After some rough times in the starting rotation, Dirk Hayhurst is back in the bullpen. In his first appearance out of the pen, he gave up a run, but he did strike out 2 and walk no one, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Dirk start to put up solid numbers out of the pen soon. Brad Mills and Brett Cecil are still struggling, although Mills had an ok start the last time out. Still, the pair have walked more than they have struck out, and that can't be blamed on the PCL, at least, not credibly. Personally, I don't think you get called up if you're pitching that way, so I don't mind them being passed over this time. Jonah Bayliss is doing a nice job out of the bullpen.

On the hitting side, Scott Campbell had been really struggling but has come on of late, hitting .400/.526/.467 over his last 5 games. He continues to struggle at third base, though, with an ugly 6 errors already. Catcher J.P. Arencibia doesn't have great numbers this season either, and has yet to hit a home run, but he's been swinging the bat better recently, with 5 doubles over the past week. In case you were wondering, he has drawn one walk this season, back in one of the first games ~~hasn't drawn a walk yet~~. He has a lot of work to do. Russ Adams continues to swing a hot bat, with a .324/.368/.618 line. He's probably a credible left-handed bench player on a major-league team, but there's no room for him on the Jays.

New Hampshire

On-base expert catching prospect Brian Jeroloman hasn't been walking much (just 5 this season) but he is hitting much better, .310/.365/.431 to be exact. Second baseman Brad Emaus has cooled off after his hot start and is now nursing an 0-13 streak, though his overall numbers are still respectable. Brian Dopirak is doing a decent job at the plate (.814 OPS). 2008's first round pick, David Cooper, had a big day yesterday (3-4 with a double) and is now hitting .276/.364/.397.

On the pitching side, Fabio Castro and Reidier Gonzalez continue to light it up - Castro is 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 innings and, even more impressively, 24 Ks to just 3 walks. Gonzalez has also been impressive, with a 1.37 ERA and a 15/6 K/BB ratio over 26 1/3 innings. Marc Rzepzynski is having significant control problems (14 walks in 19 1/3 innnings) but has been striking out everyone (27 Ks) and generally still getting the job done (3-1, 4.58 ERA).

Dunedin

Moses Sierra continues to torch the ball and is now hitting .340/.397/.603 with half of his hits of the extra base variety. Fellow outfielders Darrin Mastroianni and Eric Thames have fallen off a bit but both are still doing a very solid job (.873 and .866 OPSes, respectively). 2007 draftees Justin Jackson, Kevin Ahrens, and John Tolisano aren't hitting a lick (Ahrens .470 OPS is the best of the three). Adam Loewen has just joined the team and played in his first two games.

On the pitching side, the starters are struggling while the relievers are doing well, particularly Tim Collins, who has a 20/1 K/BB ratio over 11 innings. 2007 draftee Trystan Magnuson is also doing well after struggling in his first full professional season last year.

Lansing

Outfielder Johermyn Chavez is treating the ball like a villain from the old Batman TV series, to the tune of .391/.420/.761. Chavez already has 4 home runs, a triple, and 4 doubles in 13 games, and he doesn't seem to be slowing down. Other than outfielder Brian Van Kirk (1.012 OPS), the other Lugnuts, are struggling at the plate, particularly Balbino Fuenmayor (.257 OPS) and Tyler Pastornicky (.547 OPS).

Back next time!

TotalZone on Third Base Prospects

erik — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 12:14:40 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

The Cardinals will go with David Freese and his defense while they wait for Troy Glaus' shoulder to mend.

Browse more photos »

Thanks to the efforts of Sean Smith and Jeff Sackmann, we now have TotalZone stats for minor leaguers, which can be found at players' pages at Minor League Splits. Sackmann collects the minor league data. TotalZone is a creation of Smith's and has been used to measure major leaguers defense for quite a while now. You can read up on how reliable these stats are and how they translate here.

So far we have looked at shortstops, center fielders and second baseman. Charted below are the 2008 stats for the consensus top prospects at the hot corner, or at least those who played enough games at the position to qualify.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Mike Moustakas	KC	19	A	111	154	11	26
Mat Gamel	MIL	22	AA	212	332	-2	-2
Josh Vitters	CHC	18	SS	95	140	7	18
Matt Dominguez	FL	18	A	125	211	-6	-10
Lonnie Chisenhall	CLE	19	SS	112	172	0	0
Danny Valencia	MIN	23	A+	95	129	9	25
Wes Hodges	CLE	23	AA	169	277	-5	-7
Neil Walker	PIT	22	AAA	178	276	-1	-1
David Freese	STL	25	AAA	176	252	8	12
Kevin Ahrens	TOR	19	A	176	269	6	8
Juan Francisco	CIN	21	A+	150	221	7	12
Taylor Green	MIL	21	A+	167	262	0	0
Billy Rowell	BAL	19	A+	193	305	1	1
Austin Gallagher	LAD	19	A+	68	125	-7	-20
John Whittleman	TEX	21	A+	161	251	4	6
Allen Craig	STL	23	AA	177	274	-2	-3

Mike Moustakas was moved from shortstop to third base mid-season and took to it like a duck to water, but it's not like he was horrible at shortstop (+2). Moustakas has a howitzer of an arm, leading some scouts believe he could possibly handle catching. With Alex Gordon in the majors, he may have to change positions yet again at some point, but he's handled himself at third quite well so far.
Mat Gamel made HUGE strides in the field, considering his past two seasons in which he had a -12 and a -23. Scouts still believe his glove is a ways off from being major league ready, but his bat will certainly make room for him somewhere.
The scouting reports rate Josh Vitters' defense from "fringy" to average, but the numbers this past year at least rate it as a plus.
On the flip side, the scouts believe Matt Dominguez's glove could play in the big leagues right now. He has even drawn comparisons to Mike Lowell. Yet TZ says hurt his team with his defense. Maybe with time Vitters and Dominguez will even out.
Scouts like Danny Valencia's glove, but question his focus and consistency. I wonder what would happen if he did focus, because he's pretty good right now. He was also a +9 in AA this past season and a +26 at third through '06-'08. The Twins toyed with the notion of using him as their regular 3B this season before signing Joe Crede to a one-year deal.
Defense is the reason the Cardinals will use David Freese to fill in for the injured Troy Glaus over Brett Wallace, their first round pick from last year. Wallace has a major league ready bat, but in just over 50 games he was a -6 defender. In 308 games, Freese is +23. Baseball America rated Freese the best defensive 3B in the Cal League in '07 (and deservedly, he was worth +12 runs), and he handled himself well in the Pacific Coast League. He is "old for his level", but he was a 5th year senior who just barely qualified for the draft. He's only played two full seasons in the minors.
Juan Francisco played well last season at third, improving on his -4 from the previous season, but he's expected to outgrow the position. Baseball America noted that some scouts are worried he'll grow into "Dmitri Young proportions" if he doesn't watch his conditioning. "El Gancho de la Carne" has a nice ring to it. (Hopefully that's good Spanish). Francisco has power in spades, but his plate discipline is pretty horrendous - 49 walks to 327 strikeouts in 1293 minor league plate appearances.
Wes Hodges probably can't stick at 3B, (-15 in 222 games) and now has the task of trying to overtake Matt LaPorta, Beau Mills and Ryan Garko on Cleveland's depth chart. (LaPorta is listed as an outfielder, but he probably will not stick there. We'll talk about corner outfielders next.)
Into 57 games of last season, the Dodgers mercifully pushed Austin Gallagher to 1B.

As with any defensive metric, the usual caveats apply. If I understand correctly, TotalZone is roughly akin to Dan Fox's SFR metric and is a big, big step up from anything else out there for minor leaguers. In my humble opinion, as long as it doesn't depart greatly from the scouting reports, it's probably +/- 5 runs of what the player actually was worth on the field. I tend to focus in on the players hitting double digits. If a guy is that good or bad, it's probably meaningful enough to take note of.

Baseball Prospectus Top 11 Jay's Prospects

Tom Dakers — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 02:34:12 -0000

The folks at BP (no not British Petroleum) have posted their Top 11 Jay Prospects list (yeah for most of it you need a subscription). Not too many surprises:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Travis Snider, LF
2. J.P. Arencibia, C
Four-Star Prospects
3. David Cooper 1B
4. Brett Cecil LHP
Three-Star Prospects
5. Justin Jackson, SS
6. Brad Mills, LHP
7. Brad Emaus, 2B
8. Ricky Romero, LHP
9. Mark Rzepczynski, LHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Scott Campbell, 2B
11. Tom Collins, LHP

Just Missed: Carlos Perez, C; Kevin Ahrens, 3B; Kenny Wilson, CF

Not that much different from our top 11, Ahrens is 6th on our list, Emaus is 18th on our list, but looks like he should be moving up with a nice spring, Tom Collins is 16th on our list and we have John Tolisano 10 on our list. The totally new name for us is Carlos Perez an 18 year old catcher that played in the Dominican Summer league last year. He won the Jays MVP award for that level last year. Very early to consider him a prospect, but can hope.

Among the nuggets of information:

Snider is a 'massive physical presence, almost built like a cube'....are they calling him fat? 'May have to move to first base'.

JP Arencibia: "a rarity as a catcher who is often described as athletic and toolsy. He has excellent hitting fundamentals with easy plus power".

Justin Jackson: "He has an advanced feel for the strike zone and solid gap power, as well as a tick above-average speed. He has outstanding moves at shortstop with fantastic instincts and plus range, and a strong, accurate throwing arm."

Brad Mills: "He is the consummate pitcher who gets by without top-of-the-line stuff by hitting his spots and keeping hitters off balance." Sounds like Jimmy Key, doesn't he.

Brad Emaus: "Emaus just plays the game right."

Scott Campbell: "is one of the best pure hitters in the system, with a good approach, a quick bat, and excellent plate coverage. He's walked more than he's struck out at every level as a pro, and he has gap power and plays a fundamentally sound second base."

Tim Collins: "His listed height of 5-foot-7 is generous, and his weight only passed the 150-pound mark when a conditioning program (more like simply eating) put an additional 15 pounds on his skinny frame, with one scout noting, "the first time I saw him take the mound, I was wondering why the batboy was warming up."

Anyway it sounds like we have some good players moving up and some we should see soon.