SB Nation - Daniel Valencia

Should the Twins Bring Back Joe Crede?

Jesse — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:18:29 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Last February, Scott Boras client Joe Crede dropped his asking price enough for the Twins to sign him to an incentive-laden deal. He was exactly as advertised, from the glove to the power to the number of games he was healthy, but with the Twins going into 2010 with third base in essentially the same position it was at going into 2009, should the Twins double-dip on their experiment?

Okay, so the situation isn't exactly the same. Crede will be another year older with another injury-plagued season under his ~~back~~ belt, there are a pair of third base prospects that are nearly major league ready (Are they the next Casey Blake / Corey Koskie tandem? No? Right, then.) and the alternatives will be a bit more expensive. But in spite of all those things, the team is still in a similar position as they don't have the one sure answer that they need.

His '09 deal of $2.5 million base with playing time incentives ($50,000 for 400, 425, 450, 475, 500 and 525 plate appearances) and award incentives made his possible payout a reasonable $7,000,000. Suffice it to say he didn't reach any of those, so the Twins paid just the minimum. But according to the FanGraphs value scale, they still believe that Crede would have been worth $8.3 million on the open market for the performance he gave this past summer. How? Because of his defense and the position he plays, and did I mention his defense, Crede was worth 18.4 runs above replacement.

Among third basemen with at least 350 plate appearances, FanGraphs values Crede's defensive performance as fifth-best in all of baseball (behind Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre) in terms of fielding runs above avearge. He also tallied the highest UZR/150 total among third basemen with more than 700 innings in the field.

Long story short? Crede plays some wicked defense. Arguably better than any third baseman on the free agent market.

Joe knows the Twins, and isn't opposed to returning to Minnesota next year. Would playing more regularly on a non-artificial surface play less havoc on his back and knees?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

We all know the risks involved with Crede, which means the game would be all about how to mitigate those risks to both the player and the club. That means possibly giving him scheduled days off to keep his body as fresh and healthy as possible, not to mention offering a contract that resembles the 2009 version that will pay for good health.

Other free agent options are likely to cost more than Crede. Internal options may not be the health risk, but none of them can flash the leather like Crede, either.

What would you rather do? A Brendan Harris/Matt Tolbert platoon would cost a little less, but not significantly less than a $2.5 million base. Another thought: when (not if) Daniel Valencia gets his callup in 2010, what kind of a player do you want available as a mentor?

There's merit in considering Crede's return, it would just have to meet the right criteria. Where do you sit?

Poll

If you were Bill Smith, would you try to re-sign Joe Crede?

Yes, given the right conditions

846 votes

No, I'd move in another direction

202 votes

1048 votes | Poll has closed

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Twins Weekend Notes: Rich Harden, Brad Penny, September Callups

Jesse — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 00:20:36 -0000

Another weekend come and gone, and another series victory for the Twins. Let's hit some weekend highlights.

The Twins picked up Ron Mahay.
The Twins picked up Jon Rauch.
Joe Crede has finally hit the disabled list.
Yohan Pino was shipped to Cleveland to complete the Carl Pavano deal.
The Twins claimed Rich Harden. Lots of interesting stuff on that front over the weekend. Joe Christensen believes the Twins could pull something off without negotiating an extension, although "two people close to Harden" think a deal with Minnesota isn't likely. By now you probably know that Harden would be a type-A free agent after the season, has a string of arm injuries under his relatively young belt, and has pitched like a gang buster (whatever that means) since the All-Star Break.
In the same report, it sounds like Christensen essentially believes the Twins will exhaust options on the Harden front before committing money to Brad Penny. We've talked about that, too. Whatever happens, we should have a lot more answers by this time tomorrow night.
Tyler Mason at MLB.com says that Gardenhire's list of September callups will include Brian Buscher, Matt Tolbert and Anthony Swarzak. It also sounds like Gardy would like to see somebody called...let me check the name...Daniel Valencia?
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus believes the Twins will be using both Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins out of the 'pen when they return, which should bolster that side of the pitching staff even more than it already has been. It would of course mean a spot could be found in the rotation for a Harden or a Penny.
Patrick Reusse somehow believes that the Twins had veterans they could have traded in order to bring in some minor league talent, but that their .500 record in a sub-par division has robbed them of that luxury. I don't know who those veterans could have been this year, unless you want to count R.A. Dickey, Sean Henn, Luis Ayala or...really, I don't know. Mike Redmod? Michael Cuddyer? Dynomite idea. The Twins have made a series of moves that have improved this year's club without mortgaging anything of definite value in the future. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

See you tomorrow!

Joe Crede Out Indefinitely?

Jesse — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:52:54 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Browse more photos »

It sounds like it.

With what's been described as "post-operative changes", there is no return date for Joe Crede. He missed his fifth consecutive game on Tuesday night, when he had an MRI on his back which revealed those findings.

Additional details can be found at LEN III's blog at the Strib, but for now the situation isn't shaking out too well for the Twins or Crede. Without a return date or knowing exactly how his back can be treated, there's no decision to be made in regards to roster space. It's likely that Daniel Valencia would be called upon to replace Crede if/when he's placed on the disabled list, but with rosters expanding in five days anyway I'd be surprised if the team made that decision while they're still waiting on diagnosis and treatment.

Brendan Harris will continue to benefit for now, as he's started each of the last five games at third base.

Five things this year is still good for

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 12:30:08 -0000

The Twins haven't won a series since July, and considering they've taken on the post-strip-mining Indians twice and the hapless Royals once in that time, that's saying something. Specifically, what it's saying is that this season is over. Finished. Done-zo. Fin.

Most of you agree with me, judging by last night's poll. Unless the pitching staff makes a miraculous bootleg turn and veers over to "respectable", playoffs are not in Minnesota's future. And yet, 45 games are left to play, and honestly that 2010 season is coming up quicker than you might expect.

With that in mind, here's the five things that I think the Twins can still accomplish in 2009:

1. Start priming the Danny Valencia pump.

Few seem to doubt that Valencia is Minnesota's third baseman of the future, and with Joe Crede unlikely to be back next year, Valencia's going to have to start learning the major-league trade at some point. I can't think of a reason that some time in the majors would damage his development, unless he's super-fragile mentally, and if that's the case then he's probably not the answer in 2010 anyway. The remainder of the season would give Valencia some time to try his luck in the majors. (And - not to be too cynical here, but Crede's only at 338 plate appearances, and he's got plenty of bonuses coming up based on PAs. Valencia could save some money.)

2. Decide once and for all on Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez.

Something has to give, here. Remember, Young is younger than Denard Span and only three months older than Gomez, so we're not talking about any wily veterans here, no matter what the service time says. Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are both signed through 2010 with club options for 2011; Span, Gomez, and Young are all under team control through 2012 or 2013. We know Kubel will be the regular DH for the foreseeable future, Span seems to have locked down a lineup spot, and as for Cuddyer, the Twins aren't about to dump a team leader that has a 123 OPS+. We all know about the strengths and weaknesses of the two players - and neither is being well-served by playing only half the time. Something's gotta give here, and the team might as well figure that out over the rest of this season.

3. Let the starting rotation work out some issues.

Every starter is going out there and pressing - Francisco Liriano overthrows, Nick Blackburn stops driving with his lower body, Anthony Swarzak juts out his jaw and tries to throw the ball 135 miles an hour and actually through a hitter's bat. No doubt every pitcher in the rotation feels a target on his back, when what each one really needs is to get out there and work through his problems. Even if it turns into spring training on the mound, the young pitchers need to know that they should be out there working on their pitches, working on getting themselves to where they should be, rather than focusing exclusively on winning. (Put another way: I'm not sure we should see Carl Pavano every fifth day, either.)

4. Keep a few miles off the odometers in the bullpen.

There's really no reason for Matt Guerrier to pitch every other day, is what I'm saying. It'd be nice to get some chances for guys who the Twins hope to be late-inning guys soon - your Jose Mijareses and your Anthony Slamas, for example - rather than just reflexively going to Guerrier in the eighth inning.

5. Mauer.

He's hitting .377 again. He could win the batting title again. (If he went berserk, yes, he could conceivably chase .400, too.) Moreover, he has 22 home runs and should be a legitimate part of any discussion about AL MVP, even if the Twins finish 70-92. No matter how bad the Twins are, Mauer will always be a joy to watch.

(And there's that small matter of contracts and free agency and such, too. But I hardly need to explain that.)

Is It Time to Call Up Danny Valencia?

Jesse — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 20:36:06 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

And nobody is surprised Joe Crede can't stay healthy. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Browse more photos »

With Joe Crede hurt and in-house options not tearing the cover off the ball, when is the right time to call upon Rochester's 24-year old third baseman?

I really wish Crede would stop getting hurt. Or if not hurt, nickled and dimed out of playing. This latest set-back is quite temporary, but with another cortisone shot to his right shoulder he's scheduled to "just" miss this weekend's series in Detroit. Here's the sad part: going back one month to the 9th of July the Twins have played 24 games and Crede has played in just 13 of them.

Oddly enough, the Twins are 2-9 in the eleven games without Joe. Yes, they're 8-5 with him. And while those records are less representative of his contributions to the club than they are of team performance in those games, there's no doubt Minnesota misses Crede in the field.

UZR/150, 3rd Base, Minnesota Twins, 2009
Joe Crede: 19.3
Brian Buscher: -12.9
Brendan Harris: -15.6
Matt Tolbert: -97.3

But this is rehashing what we already know--that Crede brings value with him onto the field. The problem is that getting onto the field precludes you must be healthy. Which, as we've covered, he isn't.

As of this afternoon, one Daniel Valencia of the Rochester Red Wings is hitting .288/.311/.471 in 153 at-bats. It's not mouth-watering but it's certainly not bad. He's been rumored to be decent with the leather at the hot corner, and if he is actually going to be the front-runner for third base over the next couple of seasons I won't blame anyone for wanting to get a glimpse. Valencia appeared to be a hot commodity running up to the trade deadline. Who really doesn't want to audition the future?

This is a multi-facted issue. Valencia isn't a sure shot by any stretch of the imagination, and so thrusting a rookie into the midst of a playoff push won't be doing the other 24 men on your MLB roster any favors in confidence. There's also service time, and we know the Twins aren't always the most eager to start the clock. Not to mention the problems of who to send down, what's best for Valencia's development in the larger picture, and what to do with him should Crede actually get healthy and play everyday through the end of September because exclusively riding the pine is probably not the best option.

According to the Minor League Equivalency calculator, translating Valencia's current line in Rochester into a triple slash for the Twins comes to a disappointing .251/.274/.400.

Maybe Valencia gives the bench a little more strength in terms of pop, but unless Crede does actually go down in flames or we can guarantee he'll only be playing part time I'm not quite ready to call for this one. Valencia needs to play everyday while he can. Besides, once the Red Wings' season wraps up in a couple of weeks it's almost a guarantee that Danny gets a cup of coffee in September anyway. Why rob him of his playing time if he's only going to sit on the bench for two weeks?

Just for fun, and for reference, here are the offensive numbers for the top third baseman in the Twins triple-A system over the last ten years. All numbers are courtesy of The Baseball Cube.

Year	Name	Age	AB	2B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009	Danny Valencia	24	153	13	5	.288	.311	.471
2008	Trevor Plouffe	22	250	17	6	.256	.292	.420
2007	Matt Moses	22	174	8	2	.224	.244	.305
2006	Terry Tiffee	27	308	20	4	.273	.314	.377
2005	Terry Tiffee	26	229	11	10	.266	.313	.454
2004	Terry Tiffee	25	316	26	12	.307	.357	.522
2003	Shane Andrews	31	445	31	11	.256	.324	.409
2002	Casey Blake	28	482	25	19	.309	.383	.492
2001	Casey Blake	27	375	24	10	.309	.376	.485
2000	Casey Blake	26	293	22	12	.317	.406	.529

Suffice it to say that this hasn't exactly been a bumper crop. I have only three things to say.

That '04 - '07 era was a hard time. Poor Terry Tiffee.
Tiffee was clearly on something in 2004. Oddly enough he's still playing, this season with the Phillies triple-A affiliate.
I'm really glad we didn't give that Casey Blake fellow too many chances. 29 games over three seasons was more than enough.

Poll

Would you call Danny Valencia up now?

Yes

91 votes

No

140 votes

231 votes | Poll has closed

Twins Trade Rumors: Mike Wuertz, Orlando Cabrera, Matt Capps

Jesse — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 19:38:02 -0000

I advise swinging over to LEN III's blog to check out his latest. But here's a summary.

The cost of Freddy Sanchez would have been Aaron Hicks or Daniel Valencia. Am I glad this didn't happen? Yes I am.
Michael Wuertz is not on the block.
LEN III doesn't like Orlando Cabrera as an upgrade. High-5, La Velle!
Twins would have to out-bid a lot of teams if they're really up on Jarrod Washburn
Matt Capps isn't on the block either. The Pirates like him as a future closer.
Still waiting on Roy Halladay, to get to Marco Scutaro.

That's all for now! It's been pretty quiet today...

Giants Out-Pace Twins for Freddy Sanchez

Jesse — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 23:17:02 -0000

This one's been coming for the last two days.

Dejan Kovajevic of the Pittsburgh-Post Gazette (and Twitter) has reported that the San Francisco Giants have acquired second baseman Freddy Sanchez from the Pirates, in return for double-A pitcher Tim Alderson. A scouting report on Alderson, and a decision on whether the Twins could have outbid Frisco, after the jump.

Alderson, a 20-year old right-hander, was the Giants' first-round pick in 2007. 26 starts last season at high-A San Jose netted him 145 innings and a 13-4 record, striking out 124, walking 34, and giving up a stingy four home runs. Five starts at the same place this spring earned him a promotion to double-A Connecticut, where in 13 starts and 72.2 innings he's compiled a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. The gopherballs aren't quite as rare, but rare nevertheless, and it's hard to say that the Giants got the better of this deal.

There isn't much doubt that Alderson could be debuting for the Pirates by the time he's 22. He was rated to have the best curveball in the San Francisco farm system, offers a low-90's fastball and a changeup.

Could the Twins have bested this offer?

It's hard to say. They certainly could have made it a bigger package with two or three prospects instead of just one, but if Pittsburgh wanted a minor league arm who's the closest thing there is to a sure thing, then the only pitcher I could come up with from the Twins' farm system would be Tyler Robertson.

Robertson is a 21-year old southpaw sitting in Fort Myers, a level he did well in last year but needed to revisit this summer due to arm problems last season. His stuff isn't as universally sexy as Alderson's, with an upper-80's fastball with life, wobbly control and an unorthodox delivery, but he had been putting up some good numbers in the lower echelons of the system.

Ultimately, if it's about a one-pitcher deal, no, the Twins could not have matched the Giants' offer. I have to believe the Twins countered with a multi-prospect deal, although none including players like Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks or Daniel Valencia, and that ultimately the Pirates simply wanted the one best player they could get. And that's Alderson.

Congratulations to the Giants. Now let's hope our own front office can kick in with a good backup plan.

Catching Up: Twinkie Town's 2009 Top 10 Prospects

Jesse — Wed, 13 May 2009 12:00:17 -0000

A review of the organization's top ten prospects, as voted by you: the Twinkie Town faithful. A full list can be found by scrolling down and checking out the left side content bar.

#10: Luke Hughes, 3B/DH
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Minor League Experience: 7 seasons
Age: 24

Hughes has had a great start to the year, batting .277/.378/.505 over his first 101 at-bats. His five homers give him the team lead, with four coming off southpaws. In fact, so far this season Hughes has destroyed left-handed pitching. Unfortunately the fielding doesn't seem to be improving much, as he's already been charged with eight errors. While it's hard to judge anything of his defense by the 'E' stats, committing eight of them already isn't a good thing. Minor League Splits values his third base defense at -4 runs against league average. Right now his value is still all offense, and because he's a fly-ball hitter he's going to have to start making better contact if he's going to stay productive. A 15.6% line-drive rate doesn't do him favors, and he's popping up too often.

#9: Deolis Guerra, RHP
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 20

Guerra's had an up and down start to the season, having had the bottom drop out in two of his starts. He's a ground-ball pitcher, but at times he can be susceptible to getting rocked, particularly by right-handed hitters. The fastball isn't there right now, which was supposed to be a big plus. It's early, and he's only just turned 20 in April, but he needs to turn some sort of a corner and get the number of base runners under control.

#8: Tyler Robertson, LHP
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 21

Robertson, like Guerra, has been sabotaged by a pair of bad starts. Also like Guerra he's getting a lot of ground balls this year, which should do him favors if his defense can convert them into outs. There will always be worries about those mechanics, but as long as he produces good results those mechanics will continue to take a back seat. His low line-drive rate (14.1%) suggests some luck by the hitters (.310 BABIP), but continuing to pitch well should balance those numbers out.

#7: Anthony Swarzak, RHP
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 23

Anthony is proving he belongs at triple-A after a somewhat curious promotion late last year. Good strikeout rate, miniscule home run rate, good walk rate...he's earned the 1.70 ERA. Even the 2.85 FIP insists he's pitching well. Right now he's having success against hitters on both sides of the dish, and an impressive split is how effective he's been when his team is behind. As a starter that's an issue because he's already allowed his team to fall into a hole, but that's going to happen. Besides, to this point he's been good overall regardless. Being able to stymie the opposition in order to give your offense a chance is a good thing. If any one of the Minnesota starting rotation faulters, Swarzak should be the replacement.

#6: Jose Mijares, LH RP
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 24

The first (and only) member of the list to make it to The Bigs, Mijares had a short stint in Rochester in April. Over 6.1 innings he struck out four, walked one and allowed a pair of hits. Nobody scored. Since joining the Twins he's retired eight on strikes in just six innings, but on occasion has trouble locating his fastball. His last two outings have produced runs, the last being horribly painful. Luckily he's still one of the bullpen's best options, even though that statement is all relative right now, which means he's not in danger of being sent away any time soon.

#5: Wilson Ramos, C
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Minor League Experience: 4 seasons
Age: 21

Luckily Ramos' value is defensive, and he's a catcher, which means the .269/.289/.344 line isn't causing anyone to doubt his potential. Still, he's generally hit better than this in his time on the farm, so hopefully he'll be able to adjust to the harder competition he's seeing at double-A. He's done a bit better over the last 10 days, pounding out a .324 average. In the minor league depth chart, he sits behind only Drew Butera. And Jose Morales, if you want to count him. Which we probably should.

#4: Angel Morales, OF
Current Team: Beloit Snappers (A)
Minor League Experience: 3 seasons
Age: 19

It's been a slow start for Angel, who's still striking out at least once a game but is doing it so far this year without the production. The .587 OPS is very un-Morales as we know him to this point. Versus righties or lefties it's all been a struggle. We'll lean on his age and lack of experience in his first experience out of the Rookie Leagues, and hopefully as the season progresses we see some positive steps. Right now, from how things look, I wouldn't expect him to make it to Fort Myers before next year.

#3: Aaron Hicks, OF
Current Team: Currently in extended spring training
Minor League Experience: 1 season
Age: 19

Hicks is getting a little extra work in, which isn't a bad thing. The organization is stocked with talent at the outfield position at this point in time, which allows him the luxury of being able to have this time without feeling pressured to get onto a squad and put up impressive numbers like he did last summer. Most likely he'll repeat a short season in the Rookie League, barring an injury or a performance so bad that someone gets the axe. Still, after hitting .314/.401/.479 for the GCL Twins last summer, he'll be one to follow closely once he starts playing.

#2: Ben Revere, OF
Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience: 3 seasons
Age: 21

The speedy contact hitter is already off to a good start, reaching base at a .377 clip in his first sting at high-A ball. The slugging is way down, at just .350, which might be closer to what you'd expect of a guy with his tools than the .461 and .497 numbers he posted in '07 and '08 in lower levels. He's still an extreme ground-ball hitter, and he's hitting a bit over his head versus southpaws so far; a .417 BABIP with onlly a 12.5% line drive rate just isn't sustainable, even for a guy with his speed. Still, the tools are there, and he's already stolen 15 bases in 29 games. If he can leg out a few more doubles, which he likely will as he adjusts to better pitching, his numbers will improve and we might even see him in New Britain by the time summer ends.

#1: Danny Valencia, 3B
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Minor League Experience: 6 seasons
Age: 24

Like his hot-corner counterpart in Rochester, Valencia is off to a hot start. The walks are there, the power is there, and so is the defense. He's a bit of a ground-ball hitter, but when he gets ahold of one, he really gets ahold of it. His three homers in 84 at-bats aren't impressive, but they tie him for the squad lead and he has plenty of other extra-base hits to supplement his production. Right now all the power is coming against right-handed pitchers, so if he learns to hit southpaws a bit better, his numbers will go through the roof. The line of .298/.404/.524 is fantastic, and if Hughes gets a call at any point this season it wil mean a promotion for Valencia as well. It's been a slow but steady climb for Daniel, but he seems to be almost a sure shot to breach the majors next summer if not this September. He's a great choice for the organization's number one prospect.