SB Nation - John Raynor

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:16:26 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen drives in two-runs with a single off Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher George Sherrill in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: He was a slight overdraft but I like him, excellent defense and it doesn't look like his power was all aluminum.

4) Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: This is an aggressive grade for a high school pitcher with just one pro inning under his belt, but I really like his pitchability and have a strong intuitive feeling about him. He still has some projection left, too. Going to take a risk with this one and put him ahead of Alderson and Lincoln.

5) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Loss of velocity and break on the curve is troubling, but he's still a guy who held his own in Double-A at age 20. Stock has dropped but still an intriguing property as an inning-eater type. Ranks ahead of Lincoln because he's younger.

6) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Command looks all the way back, but components are more those of an inning-eater type than a true ace.

7) Chase D'arnaud, INF, Grade C+: Speed, on-base ability, solid defense, might develop more pop. At worst a good utility guy and could get beyond that.

8) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Uber-tools, particularly speed, but raw with the strike zone.

9) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade C+: Outstanding K/BB ratio. Was hittable after moving up to Lynchburg, though he maintained a good strikeout rate. Great command of decent stuff but need to see in Double-A.

10) Ronald Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm stands out but unsure of future role.

11) Victor Black, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm, Dallas Baptist product has high ceiling but needs better control.

12) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Old for a rookie at age 27, but has nothing left to prove in the minors and knows how to pitch. Another guy with a great K/BB ratio.

13) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect snapped up from the Mariners, could rank as high as 10^th.

14) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: High strikeout rate is off-putting, but he also draws walks, steals bases, and has untapped power potential.

15) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Lively relief arm came out of nowhere, need to see at higher levels but could advance quickly as a pen asset.

16) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade C+: Component ratios at Lynchburg weren't great, but he has a good arm and lefties with above average stuff get plenty of chances.

17) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 12^th. Another high-ceiling arm bought away from college like Von Rosenberg, though not as polished.

18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Baseball America has him at 10^th on their Pirates list due to his tools, but I'm starting to doubt the bat and his skills seem to be stagnating.

19) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Grade C: Another young projectable high school arm bought out of college ball.

20) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Grade C: Less projectable than Stevenson but another interesting prep arm. The rotation in the New York-Penn League and/or Low-A is going to be really intriguing in 2010.

OTHERS: (Grade Cs): Ramon Aguero, RHP; Nate Baker, LHP; Ramon Cabrera, C; Evan Chambers, OF; Jarek Cunningham, INF; Zack Dodson, LHP; Wesley Freeman, OF; Brian Friday, SS; Brock Holt, INF; Jeff Inman, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Jeff Locke, LHP; Jordy Mercer, SS; Quinton Miller, RHP; Bryan Morris, RHP; Danny Moskos, LHP; John Raynor, OF; Hunter Strickland, RHP; Donald Veal, LHP; Neil Walker, 3B.

This farm system is improving, thanks to trades, more aggressive drafting, and additional scouting in Latin America.

Alvarez is the crown jewel, of course, and there isn't a lot really that needs to be said about him. Tabata is a more difficult case, since even if they're right about his age, he risks tweenerdom if his power doesn't come along. I like Tony Sanchez a lot and people need to lay off about the decision to draft him. They poured a ton of money into projectable guys in later rounds, and I think the strategy of mixing skill players with tool players will pay dividends.

The system is thin in position players beyond the top group. I like d'Arnaud but he may end up as just a good role player and not a starter. We'll know more once he faces Double-A pitching. Marte could be anything from a big star to a huge bust. Heavy investments have been made in young pitching recently. I like Von Rosenberg the best of the bunch, but Cain, Pounders, Stevenson, Dodson, and Miller all have significant upside potential. There are also live-armed guys who could help in the bullpen relatively soon, and there are inning-eaters such as Lincoln, Alderson, and Strickland to provide some leavening to the upside guys.

If what I saw in Arizona is any indication, Donald Veal could be a surprise success in 2010.

The Pirates could use some additional bats to go with all these arms, but overall this is an organization on the right track in terms of player development. The debut of Andrew McCutchen was just the first step.

Should Ramon Vazquez Keep His Roster Spot?

Charlie — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 06:58:39 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Pittsburgh Pirates' Ramon Vazquez (5) connects for a two-run single against Cincinnati Reds' Micah Owings in the first inning during a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, May 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Interesting tidbit in the Post-Gazette today:

Looks like Rule 5 pick John Raynor will be in a one-on-one battle with Brandon Moss for reserve outfield duty this spring. Locked into the bench for now are Jason Jaramillo, Ramon Vazquez, Bobby Crosby and Delwyn Young. That leaves room for one outfielder, preferably one capable of backing up in center. And Raynor might be better there than Moss.

Unlike Dejan Kovacevic, I can only speculate on what will happen, but what should happen here? Vazquez is vaguely useful in that, you know, he can play a bunch of infield positions and isn't Brian Bixler, but Vazquez hit a sub-Bloomquistian .230/.335/.279 last year, making 2009 the fourth season in the past six in which he failed to top a .620 OPS. I mostly admire Vazquez's patient approach at the plate, but that's really all he had in 2009--he looked like was praying for pitchers to accidentally walk him. I liked the Vazquez signing when it happened, but his strong 2008 campaign with the Rangers now looks very fluky. With Bobby Crosby in the fold, there doesn't seem to be any reason to break camp with another utility infielder, especially since Young can also sort of play second.

There are probably five bench spots available, and one probably will go to a catcher, and another to someone who can play shortstop. Jaramillo, Crosby and Young look very likely to make the bench, at this point. Maybe Kovacevic knows something I don't, but if I were in charge, it wouldn't be particularly likely that Vazquez would make the team next year. Assuming for now that Jeff Clement starts at first base and Garrett Jones is in right field, Moss isn't an ideal fit for the bench because he's left-handed like both of those guys. But Moss is out of options, can remain under team control for several more years if he sticks, and (despite his terrible 2009) has some prayer of hitting in 2010. There's really no upside in keeping Vazquez, except as insurance in case Crosby or Ronny Cedeno gets hurt or doesn't make the team. And even leaving Moss aside for a second, I'd probably rather keep Raynor and Steve Pearce as the last two bench guys than give a spot to Vazquez.

Of course, worrying about the Pirates careers of Vazquez and (probably) Moss is a deck chairs / Titanic situation. If Pedro Alvarez comes up, Vazquez will be gone, and if Jose Tabata comes up or the Pirates acquire another corner player, Moss will probably be gone. In the meantime, though, I think he could be a pretty decent bench outfielder--I think he's a bit better as a hitter than he showed in 2009, and his defense is good. It would be nice to stick with him for a couple more months before dumping him completely.

Rule 5 Draft

craig — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 20:13:23 -0000

As part of the Lindstrom trade the Marlins received the Rule 5 draft pick of the Astros in which Jorge Jimenez was chosen.

To complete the deal, the Astros selected third baseman Jorge Jimenez out of the Red Sox's system in Thursday's Rule 5 Draft and shipped him to the Florida Marlins. The Winter Meetings concluded with the Marlins acquiring the strong-armed, left-handed hitting corner infielder they coveted.

We will see what happens but keep in mind Jimenez was 25 year-old Double-A player. Should things go awry, say with the pitching staff, and the Marlins should need to bring up more pitchers, it happened last season, they will ship him back to make room on the 25-man roster. But at this point he looks like the best thing the Marlins received in the Lindstrom trade. Kinda sad when the best thing we got was the player to be named later.

In the draft the Marlins lost John Raynor in the major league portion and catcher Andrew Jenkins in the triple-a portion. Losing Raynor probably isn't earth shattering, but still, he was well thought of. If Pittsburgh needs a spot on the 25-man roster, we may get him back.

Pirates Pick John Raynor in Rule 5

Charlie — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:00:30 -0000

The Pirates have selected Marlins outfielder John Raynor with the second pick in the Rule 5 draft. Raynor struggled at Class AAA New Orleans last year, but he had an impressive minor league profile before that, posting nice averages and OBPs, even in 2008 after skipping a level by heading straight from the South Atlantic League to AA. He's also blazingly fast, but he's not a slap hitter--he hit 13 homers in both 2007 and 2008, although he only had six last year.

Finding information about Marlins prospects is tricky, because no one cares about the Marlins, let alone their minor leaguers. But my guess is that Raynor can handle center pretty well. He's fast, he wins some praise for his defense, and Baseball America guessed in 2007 that he would wind up being the Marlins' starting center fielder.

The downsides with Raynor are that he strikes out a bit too much for a prospect of his type, doesn't have a ton of power and is coming off a pretty bad season.

Raynor came up all the time in Rule 5 discussions before the draft, but I didn't see this coming because, well, the Pirates didn't really need outfielders and, in particular, they're really short on relief pitching. So they must have liked Raynor a lot. It's certainly possible that Raynor won't stick, but if he does, it could mean even less playing time for Brandon Moss. As it stands now, Lastings Milledge and Garrett Jones will probably man the corner outfield spots, with Jeff Clement playing first. Moss hasn't hit as well as Delwyn Young, and time will tell if he plays defense as well as Raynor, so if Raynor makes the team Moss could be a spare part without much of a use. And if the Bucs sign one of the outfielders they're interested in, like Rick Ankiel or Xavier Nady... well, in that case, my guess is that Raynor would be sent back to the Marlins, but if he isn't then constructing the bench could get really tricky.

Overall, though, Raynor's performance record before 2009 makes him an interesting pick. If he can recover some of the ability to hit for average he's shown in the past, then he can be a valuable bench player.

Rule 5 Draft Impressions

John Sickels — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:57:26 -0000

2010 Rule 5 Draft Review

There wasn't a lot of super-exciting action in the Rule 5 draft this year, but some interesting players did change hands. From the look of it, most teams were on the lookout for bullpen help, which makes sense since it is easier to carry an extra pitcher these days than an extra hitter.

1) Yankees: Jamie Hoffman, OF, from Dodgers: The Yankees traded up to make sure they got Hoffman, who hit .284/.360/.455 this year for Triple-A Albuquerque and .182/.167/.409 in 14 games with the Dodgers. The 25-year old is a right-handed hitter and thrower with average tools, including decent speed, occasional power, and fairly good plate discipline. He can be a useful reserve outfielder.

2) Pirates: John Raynor, OF, from Marlins: Another potential reserve outfielder, the 25-year old Raynor hit .255/.326/.357 for Triple-A New Orleans, but swiped 18 bases. He had a much better season in 2008, hitting .312/.402/.489 with 48 steals for Double-A Carolina. Raynor's speed would look good on the Pirates bench but he probably won't hit enough to be a regular.

3) Rangers: Ben Snyder, LHP, from Giants: Snyder posted a 2.88 ERA with an 86/38 K/BB in 97 innings for Double-A Connecticut this year. The 24-year old Ball State University product struggled as a starter when reaching Double-A in '08, but was much more effective after converting to relief this year. He could provide some solid LOOGY or long relief innings for the Rangers in 2010.

4) Royals: Edgar Osuna, LHP, from Braves: This 22-year old southpaw from Mexico posted a 3.72 ERA with a 49/21 K/BB in 77 innings for Double-A Mississippi in 2009. His fastball isn't very fast, but he changes speeds well and throws strikes with his effective breaking ball. He could be a useful 11^th man, capable of spot starting and long relief work.

5) Indians: Hector Ambriz, RHP, from Diamondbacks: Ambriz is 25 years old, a fifth rounder out of UCLA in 2006. He was mediocre as a starter for Triple-A Reno this year, with a 5.57 ERA and a 103/40 K/BB in 128 innings with 164 hits allowed. He does get his fastball past 90 MPH and has a good splitter, and I could see him being a decent relief arm with spot starter potential.

6) Diamondbacks: Zack Kroenke, LHP, from Yankees: A University of Nebraska product (fifth round 2005), Kreonke posted a 1.99 ERA with a 55/30 K/BB in 72 innings for Triple-A Scranton this year. The 25-year old has an 88-92 MPH fastball with movement, and he could end up being an astute pick as a bullpen asset if his command sharpens a bit more.

7) Mets: Carlos Monasterios, RHP, from Phillies: This 23-year old from Venezuela posted a 3.73 ERA with a 71/27 K/BB in 82 innings for Class A Clearwater. His 90 MPH sinking fastball is an asset and he throws strikes, but scouts give mixed opinions about his slider and he's unproven above the A-ball level. If the command is there he can help out in the major league pen. TRADE: He was sold to the Dodgers after the draft.

8) Marlins: Jorge Jimenez, 3B, from Red Sox: A 25-year-old third baseman, Jimenez was a 15^th round pick in 2006 from Porterville Junior College. He hit .289/.366/.422 this year for Double-A Portland, showing decent plate discipline and touches of power with 13 homers. He could fit as a pinch-hitter and platoon player but seems unlikely to become a significant regular.

9) Athletics: Bobby Cassevah, RHP, from Angels: The 24-year old Cassevah posted a 3.68 ERA with a 45/37 K/BB in 73 innings for Double-A Arkansas this year. The strikeout rate was weak, but he gets tons of grounders with his 92-94 MPH sinker, resulting in a 4.03 GO/AO ratio. If he throws strikes, he can be an effective middle reliever.

11) Blue Jays: Zech Zinicola, RHP, from Nationals: The 24-year old Zinicola posted a 1.74 ERA with a 16/9 K/BB in 21 innings for Double-A Harrisburg, but was much less effective for Triple-A Syracuse, with a 7.56 ERA and a 31/10 K/BB in 33 innings but 47 hits allowed. A sixth round pick out of Arizona State in '06, he throws hard and often throws strikes but has an erratic track record. He could be a good middle reliever if he improves his consistency.

12) Brewers: Chuck Lofgren, LHP, from Indians: Lofgren was once a hot prospect, but two erratic seasons have hurt his stock, though perhaps a change of scenery can help him. He posted a 1.48 ERA with a 31/15 K/BB in 43 innings for Double-A Akron this year, but went 6-10, 5.31 with a 62/33 K/BB in 98 innings after moving up to Triple-A Columbus. Sometimes he throws hard, sometimes he doesn't, and his command is likewise inconsistent.

13) Cubs: Mike Parisi, RHP, from Cardinals: The 26-year old Parisi missed almost the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery, making just five rehab starts in the lower minors. When healthy he shows decent command of three pitches but does not throw hard. He could help out as a mopup man in the back end of the bullpen, but is a long shot to make a huge contribution.

14) Rays: Armando Zerpa, LHP, from Red Sox: The 22-year old Zerpa, a Venezuelan, posted a 1.20 ERA with a 51/14 K/BB in 45 innings for Greenville in the South Atlantic League. He has average velocity but a good slider and has dominated lower-level hitters when his command is on. His command is not always on, so it is unlikely he'll see high-leverage innings in the 2010 bullpen.

15) Mariners: Kanekoa Texeira, RHP, from Yankees: Tezeira posted a 2.84 ERA with an 88-43 K/BB in 101 innings for Double-A Trenton, used as a long reliever and spot starter. The 23-year old has an excellent slider and a solid fastball, but inconsistent control has held him back. He could help out in the bullpen if he solves his command issues.

16) Giants: Steven Johnson, RHP, from Orioles: Baltimore acquired the 22-year old Johnson from the Dodgers this past summer, and he's a very solid sleeper prospect, having pitched very well after moving up to Double-A this year thanks to a complete 90 MPH fastball/curveball/slider/changeup arsenal. He's still inconsistent, but is young and could develop into a solid inning-eater .

17) Cardinals: Ben Jukich, LHP, from Reds: Jukich is 27 years old. A soft-tosser with a good curveball, he went 9-6, 4.10 with a 106/40 K/BB in 123 innings for Triple-A Louisville this year, allowing 125 hits. The former 13^th round pick out of Dakota Wesleyan is having a fine winter ball season in the Dominican Winter League. The Cardinals may be looking at him as a left-handed short man, although his platoon splits haven't been extreme.

18) Phillies: David Herndon, RHP, from Angels: A fifth round pick in 2006 out of Gulf Coast Community College, Herndon posted a 3.03 ERA with a 35/14 K/BB in 65 innings for Double-A Arkansas this year. His fastball velocity is average, but he has a decent sinker and slider and throws strikes, making him an option as a middle reliever. He gets lots of grounders and posted a 2.28 GO/AO at Arkansas.

Florida Marlins finalize the 40-man roster

craig — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:51:13 -0000

The Marlins finalized the 40-man roster to get ready for the winter meetings and the Rule 5 draft.

In anticipation of the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 10, the Marlins filled up their 40-man roster on Friday, adding right-handers Jose Ceda, Jay Buente, Brett Sinkbeil and Kris Harvey, as well as outfielder Scott Cousins.

Friday was the deadline to protect players from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft by selecting their contracts. The move ensures none of those players run the risk of being picked up by another team unless they are outrighted at a later date.

Some notable exceptions who were left off the 40-man roster were outfielder John Raynor, catcher Brad Davis and left-hander Graham Taylor...

The Marlins added a couple more players to the roster than I had anticipated, but nothing wrong with that.

TotalZone on Corner Outfield Prospects

erik — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 13:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Travis Snider just has DH written all over him.

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SS | CF | 2B | 3B | OF | 1B

Last but not least, let's check out corner outfielders. Charted below are the consensus top corner OF prospects.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Jason Heyward	ATL	18	A	203	358	13	19
Matt LaPorta	CLE	23	AA	120	258	-14	-28
Mike Stanton	FLA	18	A	107	225	4	9
Andrew Lambo	LAD	19	A	129	293	-2	-3
Daryl Jones	STL	21	A+	118	236	8	17
Jose Tabata	PIT	19	AA	116	214	8	19
Nick Weglarz	CLE	20	A+	111	236	2	4
Michael Burgess	WAS	19	A	173	385	1	1
Kellen Kulbacki	SDP	22	A+	148	287	13	24
Nolan Reimold	BAL	24	AA	218	430	-4	-5
John Raynor	FL	24	AA	136	309	-2	-3
Caleb Gindl	MIL	19	A	212	388	13	17
Michael Taylor	PHI	22	A	76	170	1	3
Cole Gillespie	MIL	24	AA	146	344	2	3
Cody Johnson	ATL	19	A	116	320	-9	-14

Travis Snider didn't quite qualify, but was horrendous (-28) in 2007. His minor league plus major league TZ have him at -8 in 106 games last year. CHONE projects he'll be -10 this season.
Jason Heyward is a beast in every facet of the game. The scouting reports say he needs to read the ball of the bat a little better and improve his routes, but according to TZ, he was superb in the field last season.
Matt LaPorta improved after moving from right field to left after being traded to Cleveland (+4). Even so, he was a first baseman in college and will be a first baseman in the majors.
Jose Tabata was moved to center field after being traded to the Pirates, and it looks like he has the range for it, but with Andrew McCutchen around, right field is probably where he'll stick.
Daryl Jones has the speed for center field but an arm for left. He played wide receiver in high school and even turned down some college scholarships to play pro baseball. He looked like a classic tools bust until he underwent LASIK eye surgery during the winter before last season. Since the surgery, Jones has hit .316/.407/.483 in A+/AA. LASIK may have also helped him see the ball better in the outfield; he was -24 through '05-'07, + 15 at both levels combined in '08.
Scouts knock Kellen Kulbacki's defense, likely because he's sort of slow and doesn't appear to hustle. TZ on the contrary says he was rather awesome.
Caleb Gindl is the all-out type, but he has to be with his limited set of tools. The extra hustle may have helped him post some pretty strong defensive numbers, despite below-average speed.
Cody Johnson was the Braves' first round pick in 2006 and looks like a rather one-dimensional prospect. He can't field or run and he strikes out one out of every three trips to the plate.

Unlike infielders, the numbers for corner outfielders actually translate a little worse from one season to the next. Chone explains:

For corner outfielders, it appears that the quality of fielding, by looking at players who move up in levels, is lower as you move up in level, with major leaguers being the worst!

This was a bit hard for me to believe. There are some reasons that it could be possible—players lose speed relatively quickly, and outfield range is highly dependent on speed. Also, the lower levels of the minors use the DH in every game, which probably cuts down on the Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell types in minor league outfields. Another thing to consider is that players like Dunn were not the same lumbering plodders in the minors. At age 21, he was likely a good bit lighter on the scale and faster in the field. Major league outfielders, especially at the corners, are selected more for their bats than their gloves, and while having a lot of bulk muscle helps you hit for power, it does not help you chase down fly balls.

Makes sense.

Hopefully you all enjoyed this series.We all know that with any fielding metric, particularly with a quasi play-by-play metric, there is room for error. TZ is definitely a huge step up from anything else we have for minor leaguers, or at least since Dan Fox's SFR was being published. (Curse you, Pittsburgh Pirates for poaching one of my favorite baseball bloggers! The nerve.)

I'd personally be more likely to accept Keith Law, Baseball America and other prospect watcher's opinions about a player's ability to field first, particularly when they all agree, but this is another nice tool to have in the toolbox when it pertains to evaluating prospects. On the contrary, if I got conflicting reports, I'd seek these numbers out next, particularly when there is more than a season or two's worth of data handy.