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Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:52:45 -0000

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Josh Reddick fouls off a pitch during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Friday, Sept. 18, 2009, in Baltimore. The Red Sox won 3-1. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Grade B+: I love this guy: Five Tool/Seven Skill player who can do everything. I expect more power will come. Just needs to stay healthy.

2) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade B+: He's not a shortstop, but he's a very good pitching prospect who could advance quickly. Possible number two/three starter.

3) Ryan Kalish, OF, Grade B: Another guy with a broad skill base. I like him slightly better than Reddick due to his superior plate discipline and he's one year younger.

4) Josh Reddick, OF, Grade B: He was rushed. Most people would rank Reddick ahead of Kalish since Reddick has more power. My instinct says Kalish but it's close.

5) Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade B: His component ratios deteriorated in Triple-A, but I still like him. Very similar minor league components to Jeff Suppan, not an ace but if Bowden ends up throwing 2411 average major league innings it counts as a success.

6) Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Grade B-: Bowden ranks a bit ahead because he's younger, but Tazawa is another guy who can be a good inning-eater. Deserves another chance despite poor pitching in Boston.

7) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Grade B-: Great human interest story and a very solid hitter, but needs to show more power at first base. I think it will come.

8) Lars Anderson, 1B, Grade B-: A difficult grade, but I'm going to give him an injury mulligan and see what he can do with a fresh start. Like Rizzo, will he have the home run power you want in a first baseman?

9) Reymond Fuentes, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Great tools, will he develop skills?

10) Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Still projectable, throws strikes.

11) Jose Iglesias, SS, Grade C+: Amazing glove, but I won't rank him higher than this until he shows that he can be an adequate hitter. Could be an Omar Vizquel type if he does.

12) Derrik Gibson, INF, Grade C+: Very athletic, controls the strike zone, steals bases, will he develop some pop?

13) Luis Exposito, C, Grade C+: Deserves more attention than he's received both on offense and defense.

14) David Renfroe, SS-3B, Grade C+: Great scouting reports about bat and athleticism, but need some data.

15) Alex Wilson, RHP, Grade C+: Good fastball/slider combination with sharp command, could rise through system quickly.

16) Roman Mendez, RHP, Grade C+: Breakthrough candidate with a lively arm, need to see what he can do outside the Gulf Coast League, but very intriguing.

17) Pete Hissey, OF, Grade C+: No power yet, but very athletic and projectable.

18) Yamaico Navarro, SS, Grade C+: Injury mulligan. Tools are still here but will he refine them?

19) Madison Younginer, RHP, Grade C+: Raw high school arm with immense potential.

20) Stephen Fife, RHP, Grade C+: Strike-thrower who could develop into an inning-eater type.

21) Kyle Weiland, RHP, Grade C+: Another inning-eating possiblity.

OTHERS (Grade C): Michael Almanzar, 3B; Drake Britton, LHP; Ryan Dent, INF; Felix Doubront, LHP: Tim Federowicz, C; Alex Hassan, OF; Brandon Jacobs, OF; Ryan Lavarnway, C; Che-Hsuan Lin, OF; Will Middlebrooks, 3B; Adam Mills, RHP; Daniel Nava, OF: Eammon Portice, RHP; Jason Rice, RHP; Dustin Richardson, LHP; Manuel Rivera, LHP; Oscar Tejeda, SS; Mark Wagner, C; Fabian Williamson, LHP.

Since the trade isn't final yet, I decided to put off writing about Max Ramirez until I get to the Rangers. I haven't decided on a grade for him yet, but he's somewhere in the B- range I think.

As with the Cardinals, it was really hard to knock this down to 40 players; there were at least another 10 guys I could have written up. I tried to provide a mixture of upside players, role players closer to the majors, and guys I just like for one reason or another. Other guys you could write about include Randy Conseugra, Jason Place, Jose Vinicio, and Zach Daeges, and Aaron Bates. I have to draw the line somewhere however. There just isn't room to include everyone and I could spend a week just trying to make decisions between Grade C guys.

This is a very deep system, though trades and difficult 2009 seasons for some prospects (Anderson, Navarro, Bowden to a lesser extent) reduced what the overall ranking at the top might otherwise look like. They have a good mixture of tools and skills players, polish and upside. The plan to spend money on high-upside guys with difficult signability seems to be working, although not everyone has panned out exactly as expected. A year from now things could look even better: Westmoreland and Kelly are both potential Grade A/A- prospects, and several of the C+ guys have higher grade potential.

All in all, there is a lot here for Red Sox fans to be happy about.,

Market Crash: 5 Red Sox Prospects Whose Stocks Have Fallen

Ben Buchanan — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 11:00:42 -0000

Feeling down from the losing streak? Want an inspirational story about a promising prospect to give you a lift? Look elsewhere. via sonsofsamhorn.net

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Acclaim is a fickle thing in the world of prospects. One good year could have a previous unknown garnering all sorts of attention, from lists of dark horses and "players to watch" to team top-10's and league top-100's. The opposite is, of course, also true—one bad year and a player previously proclaimed a future All-Star is dropped to the realms of the dreaded "PTBNL", from whence few have ever returned (with some exceptions. See: Ortiz, David). After all, in the minor leagues, everyone is unproven. A major leaguer with a good track record slumps, while a minor leaguer "hits a wall". The Sox farm system is, of course, not immune from this. And just as 2009 has seen some pleasant surprises, it has seen some disappointments as well. So, without further ado, and from the smallest to greatest drops, I give you the 5 worst cases.

5. Will Middlebrooks

Who he is: Considered the ultimate toolsy player from the 2007 draft, Will Middlebrooks came into the system with seemingly unlimited potential. Power potential was buried in his seemingly ideal body structure, he was already a good-fielding 3B with the ability to get better, and he seemed to only need some adjustments to his swing and to work on his plate approach.

What's wrong: In 209 rookie at bats, Middlebrooks put up an OPS of .666 with 73 strike outs in Lowell. Through 222 at bats this year, he's piled up 78 Ks and improved the OPS by all of .002. His pitch recognition and plate discipline don't seem to have improved much at all. His above-average speed hasn't translated to stolen bases (3/6), and his power hasn't exactly manifested itself (13 doubles, 1 triple, and 4 homers. .121 ISO).

Why there's hope: Monthly improvement. After a .504 OPS April and .518 May, Middlebrooks has managed a .850 June and then regressed to a .702 July. The power isn't really there, and he's still striking out plenty more than he's walking, but it's better than what he did to start the year and certainly better than '07.

4. Michael Almanzar

Who he is: If Middlebrooks was the ultimate toolsy player from the '07 draft, then Almanzar was his international free agent counterpart. Almanzar came in without much baseball experience as a significant project for the organization. If they could build him up, he could be an all-star. If not, he was likely a bust.

What's wrong: So far, it's not looking good. Almanzar put up good numbers as a rookie in the GCL against similarly inexperienced pitching, but fell apart as soon as he hit A-ball. The trend has continued, as Michael could only manage a .554 OPS in 49 games before being demoted to Lowell, since which he's been even worse at .515. What's perhaps more troubling is the pace at which he accumulated errors when he first arrived in Lowell, suggesting he may be experiencing some sort of frustration-related issues. Almanzar has generally been slow to adjust to instruction so far, and if he can't do that, he's likely done.

Why there's hope: He's still 18. He's still just starting out in organized baseball. He's still got all the tools. That's all there is to it.

3. Lars Anderson

Who he is: If you're a Red Sox fan and you don't know, you must've been living in a cave. Lars came into the year almost universally regarded as the top Sox prospect and a top-50 if not top-25 prospect in the major leagues. A big-time lefty bat seen as the heir-apparent to David Ortiz with comparisons to Justin Morneau, Lars was THE Sox Prospect.

What went wrong: Well, 2009 just hasn't been his year. A .753 OPS in Portland after dominating the league in a 100-at bat 2008 stint. Lars just hasn't hit the ball enough or with enough power. 85 Ks, a .263 average and a .397 slugging making for a low Iso of .134 are not Lars Anderson numbers. The OBP is high, but not as high as usual.

Why there's hope:

Here's why. Oh, and something I forgot to mention there: His BABIP is certainly pretty good right now, but it's not in line with his impressive career averages thus far—likely more a symptom than a cause of the low power numbers, but not completely worth ignoring.

2. Oscar Tejeda

Who he is: Once considered the future SS of the Sox for those who didn't particularly like Jed Lowrie, Oscar Tejeda has fallen off the map like few others have. Considered an advanced shortstop both offensively and defensively, Tejeda put up fair numbers in his 267 rookie at bats.

What went wrong: Perhaps Tejeda is just a victim of overhype. Julio Lugo sent a lot of people looking for saviors, and those who didn't see it in the seemingly solid-but-dull Jed Lowrie went looking for a superstar in the rough and found Tejeda. Whatever the reason, the expectations have proved way above his head. Tejeda is currently following up a .647 OPS in 2008 with a .659 OPS in 2009, and he's doing it with a Lugo-like fielding performance with 21 errors in 70 games. His speed is counteracted by apparently horrible baserunning skills as evidenced by a 16% success rate, and while his K:BB rate is not so bad as some other players (2.75) it's certainly not good. Tejeda's slugging a paltry .337 with a laughable Iso of .080. Basically, as of now, he's doing nothing right.

Why there's hope: Much like Almanzar, Tejeda has age on his side. At 19, he's got time to work out the kinks. The problem is that there's a lot of them to work through. For what it's worth, he's struggled with his health for the last year, which could be a mitigating circumstance.

1. Kris Johnson

Who he is: A former first round pick, Kris Johnson has done anything but live up to the potential. After establishing himself early with a 0.88 ERA in 13 rookie starts, Johnson's career has been something of a roller coaster. Johnson had a poor campaign in 2007, with an ERA of 5.56, but that seemed to be written off as a Lancaster aberration after a return-to-form in 2008, when he managed a 3.63 ERA in Portland.

What went wrong: Everything. Kris Johnson has been plagued his whole career with walks. In '07 and '08, Johnson's K:BB ratio didn't exceed 2. In 2009, it's been even worse, at 1.65. Johnson has wilted especially in disadvantageous positions, performing very poorly in at bats when he gets behind, and with runners on. All this combines for a 6.37 ERA, and one of the biggest disappearing acts this side of Bartolo Colon.

Why there's hope: It's hard to say there is. Johnson walks a lot of guys. He doesn't strike out nearly enough to make up for it. He gets flustered, has middling stuff, and can't seem to go any significant distance as a starter. If there is hope, it's that he's got a future in the bullpen. But generally speaking, don't be expecting to see Kris Johnson coming to a rotation near you any time soon.

There are some dishonorable mentions who managed to avoid making the greater part of the list. Jason Place seems to be cementing his place as another 1st-round bust, but hasn't really been particularly bad—just not good enough. Combine that with a promotion to Portland and a low-stock to begin with, and he stays down here. Che-Hsuan Lin has powered his way back from a gigantic early slump to the point where his numbers aren't bad even with bad luck. And Middlebrooks just barely topped teammate Pete Hissey thanks to the former's bigger hype.

But if this list has you down (which it shouldn't, really), don't worry. As I said, the opposite is true. The Sox system is littered with rising stars and former disappointments that have started to impress. Next week, I'll look at some of the top surprise players in the system.

Poll

Be honest: Are you expecting Lars at #1?

Yes. He's a super bust.

72 votes

No. He's just having a down year.

294 votes

#2. God (other prospect) is awful.

27 votes

No, but he should be USG, you dirty Lars apologist.

30 votes

423 votes | Poll has closed

First Half Minors Recap Part 2: Salem

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:43:49 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

This is the best picture I could find of Ryan Kalish in action. Yeah... (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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Continuing on from last week, a look at the Salem Red Sox' first half.

Part 1: Pawtucket and Portland

In Virginia, the Salem Red Sox have honestly been the most disappointing branch of the Sox system. They finished "just" 6.5 games back in their division, but when that division most resembles the 1994 AL West and 6.5 games back is a 32-37 record, that's saying basically nothing. On an individual level, there were quite a few interesting players, mostly positional, but nobody really in the upper-echelons of the Sox' farm system except for Ryan Kalish—and he wouldn't stick around for long.

Positional Players

Ryan Kalish started off the year on fire. In 21 games and 115 ABs, Kalish batted .304/.434/.504 with 4 home runs (more than he'd hit in all of last year, excepting fall ball). Hoping this was finally the emergence of some of the power their scouts had said he could have, the Sox bumped him up to AA, where he suffered from the usual post-promotion slump, batting .233/.287/.295. Signs do point in favor of his coming out of the slump, as he's been performing much better in June, but the power doesn't seem to've really followed him at all yet, as his slugging percentage lies somewhat pathetically beneath his OBP with only 5 extra-base hits including 1 homer. Still, Kalish has gone a long way to speeding up his path to the major leagues with the quick promotion to AA, and forms an impressive outfield group with Josh Reddick, and perhaps even Lars Anderson depending on how his work in LF goes.

The other major positional prospects in A+ to begin the year were Jason Place, Che-Hsuan Lin, Kristopher Negron, and Yamaico Navarro. Navarro has lost most of his season so far to injury, and with only 50 ABs, since returning (with half being rehab starts), it's not really worth it to try to analyze anything yet.

Che-Hsuan Lin started the year in an impressively bad slump, with an April batting line of .136/.209/.169. Generally speaking, Lin's slump seemed to be started by BABIP and prolonged by the usual pressing, as he ended up striking out 19 times to only 5 walks in the month. Since April, though, Lin has returned to his usual form, putting up an OBP-heavy OPS over .800 since, walking more than he has struck out, and even adding in 3 homers in June (a large number for a speedy Ellsbury type). So far, Lin has shown definite improvement over his last season, and has overcome the struggles of his slow start valiantly.

Last year was a breakout year for Luis Exposito, as the fanbase desperately looked for any hope from the various catching prospects scattered throughout the minors. But if last year was a breakout year, this year he has returned to Earth. Now, .286/.347/.447 isn't bad, but it's not quite what we were expecting as a group from the young backstop. Still, Expo's numbers suggest an improved plate discipline, and if there's a problem, it's that the ball isn't leaving the park as much—likely the result of his higher-level exposure NOT coming in cramped Lancaster, as it did last year. Still, if we accept that the power decline is a result of a change of Location, than it's possible to look at this year as just an improvement, as his OBP has risen a fair bit. Really, if anything has hurt Exposito, it's just that there's suddenly a lot more catching prospects with promise in the system between Mark Wagner, Tim Federowicz, and Ryan Lavarnway.

On the other side of things, 2 of the fastest-falling stocks in the Sox system are Jason Place and Kris Negron. In Jason Place's 4^th year in the Sox system, he still has not shown much, if any of the first round potential for which he was drafted. With a line of .255/.327/.393 and 74 strikeouts in 267 ABs, Place hasn't shown any of the power or discipline required for a corner outfielder. Kris Negron, meanwhile, is 23, and posting a .661 OPS in Salem. Negron has been known for sudden bursts in production that help make his other years and minor-league stays look tolerable, but really he's yet to be consistent at any level, and seems to flash between short bouts of excellence and slightly longer bouts of mediocrity. If Negron wants to stick around he's going to have to pick it up in a hurry. Place, at 21-years-old, still at least has a fair bit of time left to him to find his power and his discipline.

Pitchers

The only real name of note on the Salem pitching staff is Kyle Weiland, the Sox' 3^rd round pick last year, a 22-year-old right-hander out of Notre Dame who managed a 1.50 ERA in 60 IP in rookie ball last year. Given his more advanced age and impressive showing, Weiland skipped Greenville and headed straight to Advanced-A ball, which he may not have been totally ready for, giving up 16 ER in his first 12 innings in April, and then a rather improved, but still not good 17 runs in his 31 innings in May. But as unimpressive as those numbers are, the .33 ERA in June is made all the more impressive by them. The question is, why is he suddenly doing so much better? And the peripherals would tell us to be a little guarded against getting too optimistic. Over April and May, Weiland managed a 37:18 K:BB ratio. In June, he's walked 16 guys to only 20 strikeouts. His groundout number has gotten higher, which is certainly good, but given how few hits he's given up, the question has to be if he's getting lucky now, or if he was unlucky before?

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Alright, so here's the deal folks. As I wrote this one, I realized it, too, was getting long. Ridiculously long. I still had half the Greenville positional players and all their pitchers left to go--including one Casey Kelly--and at that point it'd be so long that I, personally, could not see myself showing up to the site, clicking on the story, and doing anything other than just clicking "back".

So, to fix this without stretching this out too far, I'm posting this--let's call it part 1 of part 2 to be as confusing as possible--today, with Part 2 of Part 2 coming out probably on Thursday, just to keep things well-spaced. That way, everything will progress at a normal pace and without too much clutter.