SB Nation - Hunter Pence

Are Ed Wade and Brian Cashman on the same page?

DyingQuail — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:48:00 -0000

More photos » by Billy Smith II - AP

This is the face of a man who knows he still has two more years to phone it in.

A lot has been made today of the importance of Javier Vazquez's contract. Vazquez comes to the Yanks at one year and $11.5 million dollars. Thus, many have speculated that all signs point to the fact that Yankees' GM, Brian Cashman, is setting himself up to shed payroll at a time when a bountiful crop of FA talent opens up on the market and Cashman can open up the Steinbrener's coffers. Think Joe Mauer catching Sabathia and Burnett, while batting in front of, behind—or whatever—of A-Rod and Teixeria. And that just would be the tip of the iceberg.

A lot has been said of the saviness of the Vazquez trade for Cashman precisely because of this (also because: how in the hell do you trade away the league leader in xFIP, who only makes $11.5 million, for Melky Cabrera?). Savvy moves by a GM. That's really not something I have heard said of a Houston GM in a long time.

Seriously, think about our signings.

Even the ones that turned out well were ridiculued at the time. Arbtration decisions? Caustic reactions. Last offseason? Splash signings of Jason Michaels, Ivan Rodriguez, and a trade that saw Drew Sutton depart for Jeff Keppinger. The year before? Kaz Matsui at three years and $16.5 million dollars. Don't forget the Miguel Tejada trade on the eve of the Mitchell report, or how much the Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn swap made your head explode throughout 2008. Even if the Valverde trade wasn't bad, by the time all was said and done, our farm system was pretty much desolate and people hated it. 2007? You have to love an offseason that sees Drayton McLane run Andy Pettitte out of town and bring in Carlos Lee and trade for Jason Jennings and sign Woody Williams to a two year deal on the basis of his ballpark enabled late-career-peak-season at Petco. 2006? Preston...ok, I'll stop.

The point is there hasn't been an offseason move, in awhile, in Houston that had a majority of pundits, fans, etc. all agreeing that a Houston Astros GM did something pretty savvy. This offseason has been no different. Painfully so, at times, actually.

But then, in the wake of the Vazquez for Cabrera hubub, it dawned on me: Ed Wade is stacking his chips up for 2013, just like Cashman is for 2011. The following players are off the books, if we want them to be, after 2012: everyone making anything meaningful in the way of salary. Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, Kaz Matsui, Roy Oswalt (could take a reduced buyout and walk away after 2011), Lance Berkman (technically his contract is out in 2011). Left on the books (hopefully, due to some "the time is ripe" extensions): Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, Jason Castro, Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Wesley Wright, Sammy Gervacio, Chia Jen-Lo? Jordan Lyles? Jiovanni Meyer?! That entire combination costs what? $20-25 million to field? Throw in the likelihood of new ownership and there could easily be a $90 million pot of gold at the end of the hot stove rainbow.

I'm not trying to suggest that Wade should let Oswalt and Berkman walk away. In fact, he shouldn't. The point is, Wade came into Houston two years ago with no payroll flexibility and no farm system. In two years, Ed Wade could have an absurd about of payroll flexibility thanks to Bobby Heck, and co.'s farm system. All of this because Ed Wade hasn't signed anyone to a contract that impinges on the magical offseason of 2012.

That's right, there's method to the maddness...possibily.

Does that excuse the iffy of signings, or moves, that Wade has made? No. But Ed Wade won't be searching for guys on the fringe at that point. He'll targeting the top tier free agents. Whatever kind of analysis he's using at that point, it's hard to botch those (unless we through Prince Fielder a Carlos Lee type deal*). Depending on what happens in the next CBA, he probably won't even have to worry all the much about losing a ton of draft picks.

It's like a perfect storm. Ed Wade will get to put the garnishes on a team that he'll have worked for four years to make salvagable. The meat and potatoes will be the guys he's hung onto and the guys he's drafted. I'm almost ready to purchase my 2013 playoff tickets.

Of course, the problem with thesis that Ed Wade has been patiently playing the fool and/or just kind of screwing around for four years to set up a blockbust 2012 offseason has one flaw: it could be what the Mayan's were predicting would bring on the apocalypse. Can you imagine an entire slew of FanGraphs articles praising Ed Wade? Thinking about that possibility has more more convinced that the Mayans might have it right.

*I have no idea who exactly will and won't be in the 2012 Free Agent class, but Prince Fielder just fit the range and weight of the analogy I needed to make.

GM for the day: What would you do if Ed Wade handed you the key to the Astros?

DyingQuail — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:46:04 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Before you can criticize a man, you have a to walk a mile in his shoes. Here's your chance to have free reign with Eddy in the future.

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We're pretty much at the first of two nadir's for the baseball offseason (is that possible in the logical sense?). This week and then those two of purgatory before pitchers and catchers report. So what better for us to do than do what we nerds of our mother's basement do than prognosticate about what'd we'd do if we were in charge. I mean, that is what a baseball blog's function is, in a sense; at least, that's what attracted to me this in the first place.

So imagine this scenario: Your cell phone goes off, and you don't recognize the 713 number that's calling you. Perplexed, but intrigued, you decide to pick it up. Lo and behold—it's Ed Wade. He's calling to tell you that he's been reading your posts/comments on this site and he thinks you'd be a great "top advisor," which he explains to essentially be relieving of his duties and taking over as GM. This doesn't mean you get to march into Drayton's office and start demanding money to work with, or that you'll have Billy Beane luck at making awesome trades come out of thin air, seemingly.

At this point, I'm sure that for most of us, the thrill of the moment has subsided as we realize: "Oh God D@^nit!, I really have to figure things out." But, we'd persevere. We persevere every day here in the comments section, so for sake of keeping the discussion interesting: Let's do it again.

None of us think about the team the same way, so all ideas are fair game—so long as the rules are followed.

The rules are fairly simple:

The most you can persuade Drayton into spending this offseason is $95 million.
If you propose a trade, that pieces have to match reality. This isn't fantasy baseball. This means Carlos Lee isn't going anywhere.
Arbitration decisions have to be made. That's both offers and amounts for Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Jeff Keppinger, plus whoever you realistically believe will accept from Jose Valverde, Miguel Tejada, and LaTroy Hawkins.

Go forth. Let your imaginations run wild.

Tuesday Astros Links N' More

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:00:14 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

That's no whiffle bat Bourn is swinging...

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Let's open with a rather long note from Buster Olney's column on Michael Bourn. Since it's protected by the ESPN Insider firewall and I don't know how many of you subscribe, I'll reprint the high points:

Before joining Aguilas in winter ball, in the Dominican Republic, he started to unravel the puzzle of his swing. Besides pulling ground balls to the right side of the infield, Bourn also was hitting the ball off the end of his bat a lot -- clues, he felt, that told him his swing was too quick, and that his bat wasn't in the hitting zone long enough. He liked to watch Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee take batting practice, and he admired how their level swings seem to be pulled through the plate for so long, giving them a greater chance for better contact. Bourn's swing, on the other hand, was just too quick, which is why he kept hitting harmless grounders to second base.

Late in the 2008 season, Astros coach Dave Clark gave Bourn a suggestion -- Bourn should try hitting with his weight shifted forward at the outset of his swing, rather than with his weight back, on his left hip. Ultimately, Clark said, Bourn would need to get back to hitting with his weight back -- but this change would allow Bourn to focus on how he used his hands in his swing path.

Imagine swinging a Wiffle ball bat with your hands only, and without shifting your weight from your back hip to your front hip; this is what Clark did in September of 2008. And he could feel, in his swing, a solution evolving. He began to hit the ball to the left side of the infield, or through the middle. The progress continued in winter ball, and in spring training, Berkman suggested to him that he should work off a tee daily, develop a routine in which he practiced his level swing path, using his hands and the shift of his weight in concert.

And in spring training, Bourn noticed the foul balls he was hitting were going into the stands along the third-base line. A good thing, he felt.

"What this told me was that I was doing better at letting the ball get deeper in the strike zone," Bourn said. "I was a little behind the ball, and all I needed to do was to be a little quicker."

No wonder Dave Clark was such a popular figure with the player...

Since the Astros' top prospect Jason Castro was sent home from the Arizona Fall League because of fatigue, this interview with Giants catcher Buster Posey is relevant, though not especially enlightening. Posey doesn't really say anything we couldn't have surmised ourselves but it is worth looking at Houston's future catcher to see how many innings he's racking up on those knees.

The following are rough estimates on the number of innings played for Castro in the past five seasons. You can see the huge spike in the season he got drafted. It's also worth noting that for the first few years there, those innings were spread out through the entire year, as Castro played in the Alaska Baseball League, the Area Code Games, the Cape Cod League and other events throughout his career that made playing baseball year-round a possibility.

2005 - ~500 (mostly infield)

2006 - 673 (mostly first base)

2007 - 536 (mostly first base)

2008 - 900 (first season full-time at catcher)

2009 - 1,100 (including spring training, minors, World Cup and AFL)

Castro is used to playing year-round, but tired out right around the time he hit the 1,000 inning mark. The Astros top two catchers last season combined to catch 1,175 innings. Maybe Castro just needs to get his legs underneath him. He's only caught for two seasons now, much like Posey and should be fresher than someone who caught all through high school and college. Still, if we're thinking of using Castro at some point next season, it's worth asking if he'll have anything in the tank when he is called up.

Farmstros is already on top of this one, but Zach Levine posted all the minor league coaching move s that trickled down from a new big league skipper being named. The only real eyebrow-raiser for me was Mark Bailey being named hitting coach after spending all those years in Houston as bullpen coach. He used to be a catcher, but isn't that a bit weird?
Fangraphs updates us on how awesome Michael Bourn was on the basepaths last season. Though the best baserunner in the league was only worth eight runs last season, it shows how versatile Bourn was and how his value really transcends his pedestrian OPS.
Here are a couple of posts from Chris Jaffe's new book on managers. Since we discussed the relative merits of different managers quite extensively leading up to Brad Mills' hiring, it's interesting to look at the factors that distinguish a good manager from a bad one. If I have some time this winter, I'm definitely reading up on this book to see how we can start better evaluating the skipper. It's also interesting to think about the 'hometown hero' concept in relation to Houston's managers. Of course, the only real example was Dierker, but with all the talk about Bagwell and/or Biggio being candiates for the job, looking at how other guys fared is pretty neat.
Here's a twitpic from Alyson Footer of Bud Norris. Footer has been on a tweeting rampage with her camera, taking some candid shots of Berkman and Hunter Pence at a MMP event for 20 homeless families transitioning to non-homelessness. A very good cause and a very neat anecdote that Footer shares on her blog about how Missus Puma wanted her kids involved with this.
Don't know what to get that baseball fan you know for Christmas? How about a super-cool DVD pack full of World Series games?
Good news for the baseball bloggers of the world...Yahoo has the highest number of media credentials at the Winter Olympics so far. It makes sense, no? Just because newspapers die out doesn't mean people will stop wanting news. They just have to figure out how to log onto the InterWeb now...
Finally, a little piece of non-baseball goodness...if anyone here hasn't watched The Wire yet, I highly recommend it.

Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000

by Alex Brandon - AP

The market for Tejada will be tough to ascertain.

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Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?

If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?

It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.

The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...

The Shortstops

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)

Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.

Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins

Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)

Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.

Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's

Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million

Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.

Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)

Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants

Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)

Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.

The Third Basemen

Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)

Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)

Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.

The Utility Players

Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)

Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.

Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million

Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.

The Outlier

Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)

Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)

Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)

Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)

Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.

The Breaking News

Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners

Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)

Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.

Forecast for Tejada

Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.

Cecil Cooper from take off to landing

DyingQuail — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:27 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

6 months ago: Houston Astros manager Cecil Cooper walks in the dugout during a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh Saturday, May 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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A one-hour plane ride and two torn out pages of the Bill James Handbook, that’s all I have. Perhaps it’s because I’m a grizzled veteran now, but probably because I know that I work best under a deadline (see: 3 AM the ~~night~~ morning before any important paper due in college); whatever the reason for this hare-brained idea, that’s what I’m working with to produce this post.

If you didn’t believe me when I said that I was going to be using the interesting things I’ve stumbled upon in the Bill James Handbook as fodder for 30 or so posts—believe.

Today’s topic: Cecil Cooper’s managerial statistics. The juicy details: after the jump.

James has a couple of pretty useful measures for us to talk about what we got with Coop in 2008 and 2009. Looking over the historical stats for various managers in the book, I noted how it seemed like a lot of these stats were driven by the kinds of teams that the managers could pull the levers with. But here’s the thing, Coop doesn’t really seem to fit that mold at all.

(Since I’m writing this in a bind, I don’t know that I’ll do the greatest job of holding onto my objectivity, but c’est la vie. I’ve now sat through an hour and half of delays and there will always be a part of me that will hold Coop in ire for 2009 being a second half nose-dive. My stasis is not the best for pure, rational objectivity.)

2008: The year that Coop drove us nuts with the running game

The Astros attempted 154 stolen bases, 81 sacrifices, and started the runners moving 112 times. Having loosely observed the various levels of these stats for other managers, this is a pretty high year for wasting outs. The stolen base has a negative run expectancy. A sacrifice obviously uses an out (and let’s be honest, Coop wasn’t using sacrifices in high leverage situations only), and I’ve never read anything on the statistical impact of sending the runners, but I imagine it’s probably not a wonderful statistical move.

Thinking about this team without the aid of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, or any of my statistical sanctuaries, this wasn’t a shrewd move on Coop’s part. Subjectively, let’s think about the bone headed stolen base attempts we saw that year: Ty Wigginton and Carlos Lee on several occasions. There was, of course, the well-publicized "green light" policy and the neglect of telling Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn that simply being fast doesn’t mean you’ll steal with a lot of success.

These numbers don’t capture their effect. They’re just a count of attempts, but just thinking about the number of attempts with the cogs that were cranking the wheels, it’s not hard to say that this wasn’t the finest piece of utility maximization in the history of managing.

2009: The year that Coop, seemingly, destroyed the bull pen

There are only two numbers I need to give you (four really, but get off my back): 116 and 449 (108 and 488). The first number is the number of times that a reliever was used in consecutive days and the second is the total number of relievers used. The non-parenthetical numbers are 2009’s totals and the parenthetical are 2008.

In twelve less games than he had to work with 2008, Coop increased the number of consecutive days, while using nearly forty less relievers. While this probably isn’t the most damning usage of relief pitchers ever, let’s consider who Coop was working with:

Chris Sampson: Coming off an off-season elbow surgery.
Geoff Geary: Coming off an off-season hip surgery.
Doug Brocail: Coming off a season where he’d just been abused in the 8^th inning all year long. And yes, he was over the age of forty in both instances and had a faulty ticker.
Jose Valverde: Coming off his shredded calf muscle in April.
Relief pitcher X: The guy I should have mentioned but have forgotten as I realize I’m running out of time.

Just like with the running game in 2008, this isn’t to say that Coop definitively killed the Astros bullpen because determining that would take a lot more evidence than I have. Both of these brief blurbs are to point out that Coop had bad tendencies as a manager. The usage pattern in 2009 for our relievers was bone-headed. There’s no other way for me to describe it. During all of our discussions of what helped the Astros out pace their Pythag record in 2008, we all came back to our successful late-inning relievers. The second of 2009: we were trying to plug the links as they sprang up; ultimately, our ship sank.

So what’s the overall point of this (besides the challenge of writing all this between takeoff and landing)? To say that these are the small changes in managerial tactics that I think can hopefully give the Astros a better starting point in 2010. Brad Mills, please take note.

Friday AFL Update; Tim Lincecum is your best friend; Giveaways at MMP Oprah-style

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:53:22 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Don't be frustrated, Hunter...it takes time to learn how to fold towels the "right" way. Long ways once, then fold the right side over towards the middle, and the left side over the right side.

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The Arizona Fall League hasn't exactly treated our farm hands all that well, but yesterday was a rare all around success for our boys, despite coming out on the losing end of things.

Jon Gaston, who is becoming the minor league Jack Cust, hit his second longball of the fall season and upped his SLG to a tidy .568. Speaking of Cust, if Gaston became like the A's DH: a low BA/high SLG/high K guy, I would probably be ok with that. Especially considering that Gaston appears willing and able to both play defense and steal the occasional base.

Jose Vallejo collected four hits in five ABs....I won't mention that he has only nine hits total in 39 ABs. Wait. What's that? I just mentioned it? Shit. But hey- what did Pudge Rodriguez do on Thursday? Count his millions? Play with his kids? Shine his Gold Glove Plaques? Maybe. Go 4/5 in a Fall League game? Nope. Advantage: Astros.

For what it's worth Dan Meszaros pitched well in an inning of work. Rejoice, for a run was not allowed.

Chalk this up in the..."now that I think about it, this makes complete sense" column: Tim Lincecum was pulled over on October 30th in his home state of Washington for speeding. Young guy, fast car, happens all the time. There's more: Tiny Timmy had 3.3 grams of marijuana in the center console of his Mercedes. I mean, can you blame him? Dude looks like your best buddy from high school. Difference being that he makes grown men look foolish every fifth day for the SF Giants. On second thought, maybe the Washington State Trooper pulled over this guy instead:

The question isn't what we're going to do, the question is, what aren't we going to do?

Folks, sit down in your chairs for this one. Of all the disheartening news we've posted on here, this may top the list: Oprah is taking her talk show from regular TV to her cable network in 2011. I know there are some of y'all who watch the show, so don't get all huffy because I posted this. It's a sad day when millions of people a day won't be able to comment on the best in girl-power literature, or Oprah's latest falling off the diet-wagon.

Brainstorm: what is Oprah most famous for? No, not The Color Purple. Not her friendship with Gail. Her giving away of free stuff! Cars, money, food, books, orphaned Asian children..scratch that last one. But she has proven ready and willing to give things away indiscriminately. It works for her. Hey- her shows are free to attend and she still gives things away.

Drayton McLane, I hope you're paying attention. Why don't the Astros take a page form the O-Dog's playbook and offer giveaways not just every once in a while, but every single home game. Make it creative:

-Take an Astro home and have him help with household chores. Every month, 25 lucky fans get to take home one of their favorite big leaguers to sweep the walk, scrub toilets and rake leaves. Can't you see Hunter Pence and Mike Bourn becoming even more of the fan's favorites based on their youthful exuberance with the mop or broom? If Lance and Roy were getting tired of playing baseball, imagine how upset they'd be having to fill Grandma's bath with epsom salts. Guarantee it: Roy would be like Sean Casey on the field, smiling and yucking it up with everyone, happy to be done with his indentured servitude.

-For the first 500 fans 25 and under: play for an Astros' minor league affiliate. The first 500 relatively young people will get a chance to play professional baseball for one of the Astros' farm teams. It's perfect, there's no pressure since we haven't fielded a winning minor league club since 2007, and what better way to clue the casual fan into just how poorly the lower realms of this franchise are run. On second thought: push the age limit up to 28. 30 if you're a lefty who's "slow developing, with good, raw stuff". Another can't miss.

What other give aways should Drayton put on the schedule? There are 81 home games. I suggested two. Let's see how many creative ideas we can get.

Hunter Pence and the Astros Outfield Defense

davoag — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:25:47 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Congrats to the second-best right fielder in the majors.

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Don't know if you noticed, but Hunter Pence was a close second to Ichiro in the third annual Fielding Bible Awards, which were announced Monday. It was a nice finish for Pence, who has worked hard to turn himself into a very capable right fielder. Since Michael Bourn also finished in the top five in center field, it gives the Astros two premier defenders patrolling the vast expanses at MMP.

Still, that leaves one very big hole in left. Here is a snapshot of the most interesting section of votes to me, the left fielders. Note that Carlos Lee got three votes from his mother, his agent and his horse. If you look at the top vote-getters, though, something very interesting stands out. The winner, Carl Crawford, spent the majority of his minor league games in center field. David DeJesus, Nyjer Morgan, Lance Nix, Juan Pierre and Chris Dickerson all played the majority of their games in center field. Why does this matter? Well, I'll tell you after the jump...

So, everyone knows Carlos Lee isn't the best fielder. He looks slow, sometimes takes bad angles and can look disinterested at times. However, it's interesting to note that Lee had his highest total of outfield assists since 2004 last season with nine. The problem with Lee isn't his instincts or his arm, it's his range.

There's a reason so many former center fielders topped the Fielding Bible list, and I would say it's the same reason why people decry Derek Jeter as a Gold Glove shortstop, even though he may make fewer errors than a Troy Tulowitzki. Center fielders just have more range than your average left fielder. They're (generally) faster and have experience taking better breaks on the ball. Ideally, they have a decent arm, but that's not really necessary. This all plays very well in left field, a position where teams are wont to dump guys who can't play at first. Is hitting really more important than outfield defense, though?

Way back in September, I saw a couple of posts from Joe Posnanski on his blog that got me thinking about this. This first one brought up the idea of team's thinking completely outside the box about things, like making the best defense possible, regardless of how they hit. Would the runs you save equal the runs you give up? This follow-up post talks about whether there SHOULD be a separate Gold Glove for left fielders. Is it an important enough position to reward the best fielder there, or is it a hotbed of guys who couldn't hack it somewhere else?

I saved both of these posts, because it immediately made me think of the Astros minor league teams. For instance, the Express would routinely trot out an outfield with one of the best fielders in the minors, Yordanny Ramirez, and two players who have been center fielders in the past (Brian Bogusevic and Reggie Abercrombie). The same went for Corpus, where Collin DeLome, Josh Flores and Mitch Einertson all shared the outfield together (before Flores got hurt again) and all had played center at times in the past. Add to that another talented outfield in Lancaster of J.B. Shuck, Jon Gaston and T.J. Steele who could all play center. That's nine athletic players the Astros can and did move around all three outfield spots this season. Is the organization's philosophy changing? I think it has under Ed Wade and Bobby Heck.

It seems that the Astros will have more than enough players to fill the hole once Lee departs for greener pastures (in however many years that will take). Will it make them better as a team? Certainly Brian Bogusevic isn't the hitter Lee is, but he has a little pop, some speed on the bases and has a great arm in the outfield. Same goes for Collin DeLome, who's maybe not as athletic as Bogey, but definitely has more home-run potential. Either of these guys could start next season and probably be an upgrade over the sure-and-steady bat of Lee.

Whether this philosophy will work is another story, but for now, it looks like the Astros could have a potentially Gold Glove-caliber outfield in a couple of years. Now, if we can just do something about that infield...

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Outfield

davoag — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 16:15:09 -0000

We take a break from the managerial search to look at the Astros' 2009 outfield. The three starters in Lee, Bourn and Pence combined to be the most productive portion of the offense in a number of ways. Each totaled over 600 plate appearances and two of the three hit 25 home runs. While the Astros offense has its problems, the outfield isn't one of them. A bigger problem, though, is on the horizon.

Right now, the biggest strength in Houston's farm system is in the outfield. Players like Collin DeLome, Koby Clemens, Jon Gaston and Jay Austin all play the outfield and could be ready to play in Houston by 2011. One question to consider: would you trade one or both of the corner outfielders for pitching depth this off-season, though it may weaken the team for a season or two? Hypothetical questions aside, let's get to the analysis after the jump...

Carlos Lee, LF

2009 Season Stats: 610 PA, .300/.343/.489, 35 doubles, 1 triple, 26 HR, 65 runs, 102 RBIs, 5 for 8 stolen bases, 51 strikeouts, 119 OPS+

WAR: 2.4

UZR: -6.1

VORP: 36.2

Notes: Lee has turned into the opposite of a fan favorite these days. His lack of hustle on the basepaths and his worsening defense in left field make him an easy target, but there are few hitters more consistent than Lee. Last season, Lee collected at least 25 hits in each month except April and had a batting average over .300 in three of the six months in the season. On the negative side, Lee hit just .262/.308/.446 in the 88 Astros' losses while hitting .345/.384/.540. Love him or hate him, as went Lee, so went the Astros offense in 2009. The 33-year old had the second-highest OPS+ for Houston and had a theoretically-low BABiP of .290. Of course, this is largely explained by his low strikeout total and is exactly on the nose of his career BABiP. The distressing part of it is that Lee's OPS+ was his lowest total since the 2005 season in Milwaukee, when he posted a 109 OPS+. Lee does have value, as he's a very good bat in the middle of the order. The only way his bat offsets his terrible other baseball skills is if he continues hitting like a Top 20 guy. Guys his age, with his body type tend to drop off a cliff pretty quickly with the aging curve. Let's hope Lee can put up at least one more decent season before his contract expires.

Michael Bourn, CF

2009 Season Stats: 678 PA, .285/.354/.384, 27 doubles, 12 triples, 3 HR, 97 runs, 35 RBIs, 61 of 73 stolen bases, 140 strikeouts, 97 OPS+

WAR: 4.2

UZR: 6.5

VORP: 32.6

Notes: The reason Bourn's season was an unparalleled success was this: in 2008, he posted an OPS+ of 57 and last season that went up to 97. 40 points in OPS+ is pretty amazing, but not totally surprising, since this was Bourn's age 26 season, which means he's entering his prime seasons. Still, his OPS was technically below league average and his number of doubles was a little low for someone as fast as Bourn. The other problem with Bourn is his strikeouts. Someone with his speed needs to have a better contact percentage than the 26-year old does. On the other hand, OPS+ is a misleading stat for someone with Bourn's skillset. Runs Created incorporates stolen base percentage, which is why Bourn finished third on the team in RC with 95, two behind Astros leader Carlos Lee. His 61 steals led the National League and his 12 triples tied him for second in the senior circuit with Stephen Drew. Add to that an excellent defensive season, by most metrics, and Bourn was immensely valuable.

Hunter Pence, RF

2009 Season Stats: 647 PA, .282/.346/.472, 26 doubles, 5 triples, 25 HR, 76 runs, 72 RBIs, 14 of 25 stolen bases, 109 strikeouts, 116 OPS+

WAR: 3.4

UZR: 6.0

VORP: 25.3

Notes: Pence put up a solid season. That's the best way to describe it. His OPS, his average, his stolen base numbers were all not overly compelling, nor were his 25 home runs. But, he was one of the more solid members of the lineup. You can pick nits with different parts of his game (he still doesn't walk a ton, he chases bad pitches, etc.), but for the most part he is who he is. Pence is a solid starter who will probably never become a superstar. He's not going to suddenly hit 40 home runs or post an OBP of .400. His batting average will probably not flirt with .350 and he most likely won't have 150 RBIs. He will show up, run hard and be a generally good player to have in your lineup. I personally could see Pence hitting in the two-hole and thriving there. With his speed, he'd be an asset, but he wouldn't get as many stolen base opportunities (which is a good thing). He'd also have a little pop to keep pitchers' honest. It's not a perfect thought, as his OBP would ideally need to be higher.

Jason Michaels, OF

2009 Season Stats: 152 PA, .237/.322/.430, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 17 runs, 16 RBIs, 1 for 3 stolen bases, 38 strikeouts, 99 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: -12.4

VORP: 2.2

Notes: I'll tell you the truth. I was shocked to see how high Michaels slugging percentage was. I just had this perception that his signing was an out and out waste, largely because he seemed to never get hits, either off the bench or when he was in the game. The funny thing is after you looked at his numbers, that's exactly what he should have done. 2009 saw Michaels set a career high for pinch hits in a season with 12 and his pinch hit leverage index was 1.41, .07 points higher than his career index. That means the Astros trusted him in big situations consistently and directly in line with how he was used in his career. If anything was out of the norm, it was his BABiP of .301 was 17 points lower than his career line. The fact Michaels recorded his fewest plate appearances since 2003 could also have played into his number decrease. His Isolated Power was 50 points higher than his career average, which means we probably shouldn't expect the same kind of power next season and I really think the Astros would be better served using someone like Brian Bogusevic as the fourth outfielder.

Brian Bogusevic, OF

2009 Triple-A Season Stats: 581 PA, .271/.342/.365, 25 doubles, 3 triples, 6 HR, 68 runs, 53 RBIs, 22 of 25 stolen bases, 118 strikeouts,

Notes: Speaking of Bogey, this was his first full season as an outfielder and he did admirably well. At Triple-A, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Bogusevic put up fine numbers, but wasn't impressive. The Astros projected him to hit for more power than he's shown (remind you of anyone else? *cough*Johnson*cough*). His strikeouts are concerning and he doesn't walk enough to be an everyday starter, but his speed and baserunning acumen makes him intriguing. Defensively, Bogusevic got to a bunch of balls, recording 283 put outs to lead all Round Rock outfielders. He also had seven outfield assists, second only to Yordany Ramirez. I tracked the defensive numbers a little more in-depth for the first two months of the season and Bogusevic didn't have the most impressive arm. He made some plays but didn't hold runners as well as he could have and looked like he profiled better as a center fielder. As I said above, it makes sense to bring him up as a part-time player and let him learn how to hit in the majors. He's got nothing left to learn at Round Rock.

Yordany Ramirez, OF

2009 Triple-A Season Stats: 477 PA, .256/.275/.381, 22 doubles, 1 triple, 11 HR, 41 runs, 47 RBIs, 14 of 22 stolen bases, 64 strikeouts

Notes: Statistically, I really dislike this guy. Traditionally, though, I can see why the Astros liked him enough to sign him two years ago. Ramirez is a great defensive player and flashes big potential on offense. The problem is that the 24-year old has never been able to sustain that level of play, often falling in really damaging slumps. He's inconsistent on his stolen base success rate and I suspect he has better speed than instincts at this point. Ramirez hit all over the lineup last season for Round Rock before finally settling into the 7-8 spots. That's largely because of a genetic disorder that makes him physically allergic to taking a base on balls. Seriously, in eight minor league seasons, spanning 639 games and 2,420 plate appearances, Ramirez has only walked 78 times. That includes the 11 walks he managed in 2009. At this point, I don't ever see him being any more than an emergency contingency plan at Triple-A in case everyone else on the team gets hurt.

Drew Locke, OF

2009 Double-A Season Stats: 558 PA, .338/.389/.531, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 20 HR, 81 runs, 109 RBIs, 2 of 4 stolen bases, 84 strikeouts

Notes: Locke got a lot of burn this season because of his excellent numbers. He had an OPS of .920 at Corpus Christi, hitting 20 home runs and driving in 109 runs. Of course, the most telling statistic that never gets mentioned is that Locke was 26 years old last season. At that age, he should have destroyed Double-A hitting, even if it was the first time he'd been at that level after spending four seasons in the Dodgers organization. I'm not saying Locke isn't a good prospect at this point. It's just that we should probably temper our expectations somewhat. He's going to be 27 next year in Round Rock and may not see Houston until 2011, but with the injury to Josh Flores and the suspension of Mitch Einertson, Locke may be the most advanced outfielder the Astros have in their system (outside of the two mentioned above).

A little of this, a little of that: What the Astros offense can borrow from MLB's best teams

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:00:29 -0000

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Earlier this week, Beyond the Boxscore came out with its final Power Rankings of the season and the results are not pretty for Astros' fans. 28th in baseball overall, with periphery statistics that are dreadful.

While there may be other teams that rival the Astros' ineptitude in hitting, pitching and defense, most teams manage to at least be competent in at least one of those areas, whereas our Astros are at the bottom in all three. Remember, AL teams are rewarded in their rankings, and NL clubs are punished for the differences in league strength. Our pitching numbers don't look so bad going up and down the line, until you realize that the AL teams had to deal with a lot more in the way of offensive talent than Astros hurlers did.

Offensively, a collection of players that struggled to both get on base and hit for much power stopped the team before it could even get started. By God the Astros were clutch, though. Don't get too excited, however. That just means our offense managed to produce more than they were expected to, given our run scoring opportunities and propensity to collect certain types of hits. A team like ours that doesn't score a lot of runs via the home run is expected to score a lot. We managed to buck that trend, due in small part because our cumulative baserunning score wasn't as terrible as other teams.

Suffice it to say, the Astros don't have a lot of bright spots as of right now. Of course, that's why teams have off seasons- to get recooperate (no, no, not bring back Cooper- you can all settle down), replenish the reserves, and to give GMs a chance to put their Ivy League educations to use trying to one up each other.

What should the Astros do, in terms of player utilization/talent maximization, to improve themselves most efficiently? I think that like in most fields, baseball teams should do their best to build their own team in the same manner as those franchises which are the most successful.

This is easy to say, and much more difficult to actually accomplish, due to the fact that there is no salary cap in baseball, and with so many players on so many different levels within one organization, it's tougher to mimic the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies of the world than it would be for the Oakland Raiders to mimic the New England Patriots. Building a consistent winner in MLB takes time. A fact of life we ought to get used to.

Incremental changes can be made to this team in the 2010 offseason so that our climb up the rankings doesn't have to be so painful or so long in duration. That's not to say that Ed Wade can snap his fingers and make the Astros improve in certain areas. Far from it. There needs to be an organization-wide emphasis on certain statistics that give teams the best shot at competing into October. Simply stated- the Astros don't have many players who fit the bill in the categories that have the highest correlation with success in MLB.

Offensive:

BB/K: 5 out of the top 10 teams in BB/K made the playoffs

ISO (Isolated Slugging): Again 5 out of the top 10 teams in ISO made the playoffs

What can the Astros do to improve themselves in this regard? Well, not much as of now. Up and down the lineup, only Michael Bourn and Lance Berkman have shown the tendency to take walks. Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada were completely dependent on their batting averages (and therefore BABIP) to keep their OBPs afloat. Hunter Pence showed the ability to be more patient than he was in 2008, but it's all relative.

With Miguel Tejada's future as an Astro in question, and Tommy Manzella most likely making a move to SS, it doesn't appear that our chances improve with one player substitution will improve dramatically. Manzella will most likely struggle at the plate and has never been the most patient of hitters even in the minors. Chris Johnson needs more time in AAA, and would most likely be a disaster if he was forced to be our everyday third baseman in 2010. Russell Braynan, among free agents, has played third base and would be an upgrade in both OBP and SLG%. True, his defense would be a drawback, but as I said earlier, there will be no cure alls available for the Astros. Plug him in for a year, he won't cost the team any draft picks, and see if he can hold down the fort until better alternatives come along.

JR Towles' MLB equivalent line from Baseball Prospectus projects him to be very respectable offensively in 2010. An OPS in the mid .700s would be much preferred than any free agent, or the idea of forcing Jason Castro into the mix right off the bat.

The outfield is pretty much set. Taking out Jason Michaels, Darin Erstad and even Aaron Boone and inserted competent players who will actually make pitchers earn outs will do wonders for a bench that was most certainly worth negative dollars in 2009. Asking anything more from Michael Bourn may seem greedy, but I think it's reasonable to believe that he can become an even better outfielder, base runner and hitter. With patience comes power, and while it's unrealistic to believe Mike will ever hit even 10 home runs in a season, but adding to his doubles total is a definite possibility.

Hunter Pence is still in the infancy of his career, and more will have to be asked of him in the future. Being a more selective base runner, altering his approach at the plate to allow for more productive at bats are keys to his ascendancy in the hierarchy of NL outfielders. Far too often Hunter will be taken out of at bats, left only to protect the outside of the plate against sliders. Remedying this flaw in his game would do wonders to up our run production and on base average.

Roster Breakdown: The Money

davoag — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:12:42 -0000

I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

	WAR	Salary	Difference
Bourn	18.700	0.435	18.265
Pence	15.200	0.439	14.761
W. Rodriguez	14.400	2.600	11.800
Fulchino	3.600	0.400	3.200
Hampton	4.600	2.000	2.600
Sampson	2.700	0.449	2.251
Arias	2.500	0.402	2.099
Quintero	2.300	0.610	1.690
Rodriguez	3.100	1.500	1.600
Gervacio	1.900	0.400	1.500
Blum	2.600	1.200	1.400
Keppinger	1.700	0.428	1.273
Maysonet	1.400	0.400	1.000
Norris	0.400	0.400	0.000
Sadler	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Towles	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Manzella	-0.200	0.400	-0.600
Kata	-0.300	0.400	-0.700
Berkman	13.600	14.500	-0.900
Tejada	11.800	13.000	-1.200
Paronto	-1.100	0.500	-1.600
Bazardo	-1.200	0.405	-1.605
Ortiz	-1.100	0.750	-1.850
Michaels	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Boone	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Lopez	-1.600	0.400	-2.000
Hawkins	1.500	3.500	-2.000
Johnson	-2.000	0.375	-2.375
Moehler	-0.200	2.300	-2.500
Wright	-2.100	0.425	-2.525
Matsui	2.400	5.000	-2.600
Coste	-2.500	0.460	-2.960
Backe	-1.500	1.500	-3.000
Paulino	-2.600	0.405	-3.005
Smith	-2.800	0.500	-3.300
Oswalt	10.300	14.000	-3.700
Geary	-2.000	1.700	-3.700
Byrdak	-3.200	1.000	-4.200
Brocail	-2.200	2.500	-4.700
Valverde	3.000	8.000	-5.000
Erstad	-4.100	1.750	-5.850
Lee	10.600	18.500	-7.900