SB Nation - Mark Loretta

Making Your '00 Face: Our first backup infielder

KLSnow — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:00:18 -0000

With the '00's almost behind us, it's time to take a look back and work together to make a BCB All Decade team for the '00s. Each day, we'll tackle a new position, and we'll have our 25 man roster complete sometime around the 1st of the year.

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Third Base: Bill Hall
Corner Outfield: Ryan Braun
Center Field: Mike Cameron
Catcher: Damian Miller

Voting for our final starting outfielder opened yesterday and will close at 4 pm tomorrow. Today we'll select our first backup infielder:

Russell Branyan

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2004-2005, 2008
Slash line as a Brewer: ..248/.351/.526
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -9.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 1.7

Craig Counsell

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2004, 2007-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .247/.341/.338
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +8.5 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 5

Jose Hernandez

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002
Slash line as a Brewer: .261/.324/.434
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +4.7 runs*
WAR as a Brewer: 5.8

* - FanGraphs only has UZR data dating back to 2002, so only Hernandez's 2002 season is included here.

Mark Loretta

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002*
Slash line as a Brewer: .281/.348/.374
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -2.7 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 1.8

* - Loretta was also a Brewer from 1995-1999, but those numbers aren't included here.
** - Again, FanGraphs only has UZR data from 2002 forward, so only Loretta's 2002 season is included here.

Ronnie Belliard

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002*
Slash line as a Brewer: .251/.327/.384
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -6.9 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 2.9

* - Belliard was also a Brewer in 1998 and 1999. All stats here only reflect his performance from 2000-2009.
** - FanGraphs only has UZR dating back to 2002, so Belliard's 2000 and 2001 performances are not reflected in this total.

Keith Ginter

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2002-2004
Slash line as a Brewer: .257/.344/.448
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -0.9 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 3.1

Eric Young

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2002-2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .271/.340/.392
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -6.7 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 2.6

Junior Spivey

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2004-2005
Slash line as a Brewer: .256/.337/.400
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +8.2 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 1.2

Richie Sexson

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2000-2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .276/.366/.536
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -10.6 runs*
WAR as a Brewer: 10.2

* - FanGraphs only has UZR data since 2002, so this number does not reflect Sexson's 2000 and 2001 performances.

Lyle Overbay

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2004-2005
Slash line as a Brewer: .289/.376/.464
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -12.3 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 4.6

Poll

Which of these players deserves a spot on the bench on the BCB All Decade Team?

Russell Branyan

36 votes

Craig Counsell

178 votes

Jose Hernandez

9 votes

Mark Loretta

44 votes

Ronnie Belliard

2 votes

Keith Ginter

5 votes

Eric Young

0 votes

Junior Spivey

3 votes

Richie Sexson

118 votes

Lyle Overbay

43 votes

438 votes | Poll has closed

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:33:52 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

I've done pictures of Randy Wolf for three straight days, so here's one of LaTroy Hawkins.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while compounding the problem.

The Brewer front office staff is back home from the Winter Meetings, so it's time to take a look at the recaps:

MLB FanHouse lists the Brewers as the big winner in the NL Central.
In-Between Hops ranked the Brewers #1 in free agent signings.
Big League Stew ranked the signings of Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins as the meetings' 6th and 7th biggest moves, respectively.
John Steinmiller has a recap with pictures of what the Winter Meetings looked like from inside the Brewers' suite.

For the time being, the title of "newest Brewer" belongs to Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren, and he's excited for the opportunity. He's been a starter throughout the minors, but it sounds like he'll be given a shot to make the team as a situational lefty. Don't underestimate the value of having one more guy in the bullpen who could be called upon to make a spot start if needed. With that said, he is at best a complement to Mitch Stetter, not a replacement.

Meanwhile, for the second straight day I'm writing about a pitcher who doesn't actually want to be here. Yesterday, it was LaTroy Hawkins, who was "very disappointed" not to return to Houston. Today it's Randy Wolf, who really wanted to return to the Dodgers. Kudos to these guys for being honest, I guess, but would throwing in a "The Brewers are my team now, and I'll work my butt off for them" be too much to ask for?

We could be waiting a while longer for a decision from Mark Mulder. The Brewer front office staff will reportedly visit Mulder in January. Given the fact that this was being reported as a nearly done deal months ago, I'd guess there's a question about Mulder's health.

With Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez all projected as members of the opening day starting lineup, Ken Macha has acknowledged he'll probably have the runners in motion much more often during the 2010 season. That prompted Miller Park Drunk to launch their "RUNNING" series. I'll link to the Ken Macha and Corey Hart chapters here...the other two are a little too obscene to even be linked from this site.

In the minors:

Tom H. has a great look (with a terrible headline) at the situation faced by Jeremy Jeffress, as he prepares to return to the minor leagues knowing that one more positive drug test will be the end of his baseball career. Jeffress, who will spend the first few months of the 2010 season in extended spring training, is saying all the right things, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Earlier this week I mentioned Project Prospect's look at the speed of AFL players, and mentioned the absence of Lorenzo Cain from the rankings. Adam Foster filled in the gap for us by looking back at video and giving Cain a 55-65 rating, which is well above average.

Voting continues for our BCB All Decade Team: You have until 4 today to cast your vote for a shortstop, where J.J. Hardy leads Mark Loretta by 281 votes as of this writing. The voting is much closer at third base, where Bill Hall leads Craig Counsell by 54 votes with Russell Branyan and Ryan Braun not too far behind. Voting for our first outfield spot will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed Pedro Feliz to a one year, $4.5 million deal and reliever Gary Majewski to a minor league deal.
Athletics: Released reliever Santiago Casilla.
Nationals: Released pitcher Zach Segovia.
Reds: Signed infielder Chris Burke to a minor league deal.
Rockies: Signed Chris Iannetta to a three year deal worth $8.3 million, buying out his arbitration years.

I've already mentioned the Brewer Rule 5 draft pick, Chuck Lofgren, but he's nowhere near the best name selected in the draft. Those honors go to former National/new Blue Jay Zech Zinicola.

The possibility of winter league injury probably keeps some front office execs up at night during the offseason, and in all honesty I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often. D-Backs outfielder Gerardo Parra suffered a muscle tear in his left thigh and is coming home from winter ball in Venezuela (h/t AZ Snakepit).

If you like charts and graphs and you're looking for something to play with today, you should check out Chartball. I only spent a few minutes there this morning, but they've got some fun interactive tools to work with. (h/t Baseball Musings)

On this day in 1997, the Brewers traded Gerald Williams to the Braves for Chad Fox. The deal worked out pretty well for both sides: Williams hit .286/.341/.475 over two seasons as a Brave, and Fox was healthy for two of four seasons in Milwaukee, including the 2001 season, where he appeared in 65 games and posted a 1.89 ERA.

Happy birthday today to Josh Butler, who turns 25.

Oh, and I'm writing today's Mug before breakfast, so this was fascinating. I'm off to go find food.

Drink up.

Making Your '00 Face: Shortstop

KLSnow — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:00:16 -0000

The concept here is pretty simple. Each day, I'll give you a list of candidates: For position players, it's the full list of players who appeared in at least 100 games at the position during the '00s. You'll have 48 hours to vote. Voting for our first position, first base, is officially closed, and Prince Fielder is the first member of the team. Voting for second base opened yesterday and will close at 4 pm tomorrow.

Today, we continue to work our way around the infield. Here are the candidates at shortstop:

Jose Hernandez

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002
Slash line as a Brewer: .261/.324/.434
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +4.7 runs*
WAR as a Brewer: 5.8

* - FanGraphs only has UZR data dating back to 2002, so only Hernandez's 2002 season is included here.

Mark Loretta

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002*
Slash line as a Brewer: .281/.348/.374
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -2.7 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 1.8

* - Loretta was also a Brewer from 1995-1999, but those numbers aren't included here.
** - Again, FanGraphs only has UZR data from 2002 forward, so only Loretta's 2002 season is included here.

Bill Hall

Seasons as a Brewer: 8, 2002-2009*
Slash line as a Brewer: .253/.312/.446
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +2.3 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 7.3

* - Hall only played shortstop in five seasons, from 2002-2006.

Royce Clayton

Seasons as a Brewer: 1, 2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .228/.301/.333
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +1.6 runs
WAR as a Brewer: -0.3

Craig Counsell

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2004, 2007-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .247/.341/.338
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +8.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 5.0

J.J. Hardy

Seasons as a Brewer: 5, 2005-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .262/.323/.428
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +38.3 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 8.6

Poll

Who should play shortstop on the BCB All Decade Team?

Frustrations and Celebrations

Phil Gurnee — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:48:43 -0000

Time for a quick fluff piece while we wait for the winter meetings. The Dodgers have had substantial success over the last two seasons but that success was mitigated by failure to advance past the NLCS. Normally we at TBLA are a positive group but this November I'm feeling disgruntled about our future. So for every irritation I have with the team I'll try to counter with a positive.

Irriations	Celebrations
James Loney going backward instead of forward. After his 2007 we had every reason to believe that Loney was going to be an impact player, instead over the last two years his offensive production has him ranked with the bottom feeders as this position.	He is a kick ass post season player, fun guy to root for, still has one more year to turn it around before he's gets to expensive for his production.
Our All-Star 2nd baseman not getting the time of day from the great communicator to explain why he sat most of Sept and the complete post-season.	Trading for Ronny Belliard who inexplicably has been one of my favorite players to watch over the last few years, and then have him kick Kensai ass with a spectacular Sept performance.
Rafy Furcal playing just about every game and making Juan Pierre look like a great lead off hitter.	At least he was healthy and played somewhat good defense.
Ivan DeJesus breaking his leg.	The Beard putting up his best complete season of his career at age 35
Russel Martin turning into the bad Jason Kendall just 1 1/2 years after I picked him as a possible MVP in 2008. Now he's going to be expensive, his offense blows, and as ~~Tripon~~ Seanny Rotten noted in a fanshot, by some metrics his defense also blows. This is a particular irritation for me because one of the Dodgers huge advantages had been the big boost from the catching position. Without that advantage, it will be harder as the competition gets better and cheaper at the position while we get worse and expensive.	Other then fact he's young and might turn it around I got nothing good to say about Martin other then his middle name.
Manny's deffered contract is going to be a pain in the ass for several years unless the owner increases payroll to make up for it.	At least we should still have an above average LF for one more year, and Manny is always fun to watch.
Juan Pierre is still on the team, not because he can't be a decent players but because his salary is such an anchor on a team with what appears to be a very limited ability to spend money. My particular irritation is not with Pierre but with those who point to his time when he filled in for Manny and talk about how great he was. He was great, but it was for one month and they seem to incredibly forget he played two months and his suckitude in the 2nd month seems to have been completely forgotten.	Beast Mode in May was one of the highlights of 2009.
Deferred contracts in general - I hate them.
After several years of TBLA telling everyone how good Billingsley is, he decides to become a five inning pitcher and sometimes not even that. You won't see any comparisons this year to Chad and the best of the historical Dodger pitchers 25 years and younger.	All-Star Chad was quite a pitcher for the first few months of the year.
That Charlie Haeger didn't get more of a chance.	Padilla took Lima time and doubled down.
That Scott Elbert didn't get one start this year.
That McDonald totally blew during his brief stint in the rotation possibly poisoning management from giving other kids a shot.	Coming back into the bullpen and showing he still has big league stuff.
That Broxton didn't erase the ghost of Matt Stairs.	What a regular season.Other then the stretch with the bad toe that was one of the best non enhanced steroid relief seasons in Dodger history.
Matt Kemp's 2nd half performance	Matt Kemps complete season performance. He is already one of the best CF in the game. Please keep improving, you are a big reason to watch the Dodgers right now.
Kuo's fragile arm	Kuo's incredible arm
That Carlos Santana is not a Dodger
That Josh Bell is not a Dodger
That Tony Abreu is not a Dodger
That other then Matt Kemp, and the younger version of the current Dodger catcher, Logan White has not provided the Dodgers with an impact bat during he reign.	The plethora of pitchers that Logan White has provided for the Dodgers during his reign.
Jamie and Frank McCourt	Josh Rawitch
The Divorce
Ned Colletti	Ned Colleti
Drunken bad behavior Dodger Fans	Drunken fun as hell Dodger fans
Rick Monday	Vin Scully
Bil Plaschke	Jon Weisman & Eric Stephen
Lambo's 2009 mediocre season	Chris Withrow's excellent season
The fact that because Frank couldn't bite the bullet we will be paying Andruw Jones for years
Mark Loretta taking the Mark Sweeney route to retirement	one at bat in the post season goes a long way toward forgiveness.
Manny's 50 game suspension still irks the hell out of me	The future with Kershaw, Billingsley, Broxton, Andre, and Kemp.

Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000

by Alex Brandon - AP

The market for Tejada will be tough to ascertain.

View full size photo »

Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?

If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?

It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.

The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...

The Shortstops

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)

Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.

Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins

Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)

Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.

Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's

Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million

Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.

Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)

Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants

Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)

Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.

The Third Basemen

Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)

Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)

Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.

The Utility Players

Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)

Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.

Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million

Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.

The Outlier

Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)

Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)

Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)

Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)

Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.

The Breaking News

Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners

Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)

Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.

Forecast for Tejada

Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.

Free Agent Friday: Second Base 2010

Justin Bopp — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:04:53 -0000

These charts tells me the Royals are now in the Luis Rodriguez sweepstakes.

Click to enlarge

Full data after the jump.

Second basemen	AGE	TYPE	CLUB OPTION	WAR	UZR/150	wOBA	ISO	PA
Felipe Lopez	30	B		4.6	7.6	0.356	0.118	680
Placido Polanco	34	A		3.1	11	0.321	0.112	676
Juan Uribe	31			2.9	16.4	0.351	0.206	432
Orlando Hudson	32	A		2.9	-3.7	0.342	0.134	631
Craig Counsell	39			2.8	18	0.336	0.124	459
Adam Kennedy	34			1.7	-11.4	0.337	0.121	587
Mark DeRosa	35	B		1.7	N/A	0.327	0.183	576
Jamey Carroll	36			1.5	7.4	0.317	0.063	358
Ronnie Belliard	35	B		1.3	6.6	0.339	0.174	287
Jerry Hairston Jr.	34			1	4.1	0.312	0.144	433
Nick Green	31			0.4	-29.7	0.290	0.130	309
Alex Cora	34			0	-9.3	0.288	0.059	308
Mark Loretta	38			-0.2	0.7	0.311	0.085	204
Luis Rodriguez	30			-0.5	-23.7	0.268	0.058	251

Click for Free Agent Fridays 2010:

1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | P

Data Source: FanGraphs.com

FA/Age Source: mlbtraderumors.com

RL & Lg. Avg wOBA Data: Jeff Zimmerman

NL West in Review: 2nd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Felipe Lopez only got in a half season in the NL West, but was he good enough to be the best 2B in the division in 2009?

Browse more photos »

Introduction

Before getting to the second base rankings, I thought I would touch on a peripheral discussion on the accuracy of WAR. It is important to understand that even the WAR found at Fangraphs isn't absolute. The methodology of chosen inputs can make the final numbers vary slightly, or in some cases, drastically. The best example of this is this year's season by Ricky Nolasco, who was a 4.0 WAR pitcher from Fangraphs, but just a 1.0 WAR pitcher via Rally's historical database. The quick explanation is that Fangraphs' input is FIP, while Rally's is more based on actual runs allowed and BABIP.

In my case, I'm using Statcorner's component park factors, while Fangraphs has their own methodology for park effects. That is why some of my numbers will vary some from Fangraphs' data. For instance, I have Orlando Hudson as a 2.52 WAR second baseman, while Fangraphs has him at 2.9 WAR. Which is right? I think it's a matter of preference.

A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron wrote an article entitled WAR: It Works, which defended their methodology by finding a 0.83 correlation between a team's total WAR and final record (for comparison, Pythageorean W-L has a 0.91 correlation). So it does a decent job, but there's some understandable noise in the data.

Method

See the full methodology as explained last week. Last Monday, I omitted stolen bases and caught stealings from my value calculations. It turns out Fangraphs' positional splits are accurate to positional at-bats, and Baseball Reference's positional splits are not accurate for stolen bases and caught stealings. As it turns out, first basemen don't steal much, so that omission made practically no difference.

However, second basemen do tend employ the running game, so I did the extra legwork of utilizing ESPN.com's positional splits to extract SB/CS data. It didn't make a great deal of difference. Four teams saw their team wOBA* increase by .001, while the Rockies dropped by .001. Clint Barmes, who led all NL West 2B in caught stealings with nine, was the only prominent player to be affected, who dropped one slot in the rankings.

Read the results after the jump.

Results

No NL West team had complete personnel consistency at second base, but that didn't stop Arizona from far surpassing the rest of the division with some surprise production from their second-sackers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.298	15	49	.372	.448	.362	5.97
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	12	77	.356	.424	.347	3.19
3. Colorado	5	.231	31	98	.281	.441	.301	0.80
4. San Francisco	7	.236	17	80	.281	.329	.281	-0.26
5. San Diego	5	.246	2	58	.315	.314	.292	-1.04

Brendan Scolari's calculations had Arizona projected to be the weakest team at second base this season, but the other four teams fell in line as expected from there.

Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5.

The second base position was exceedingly interesting, in my opinion. To wit: the most valuable player was also the fifth least valuable fielder; the worst and best fielders came from the same team; the man with the third most homers was the fourth worst second baseman; and, one team had four second basemen in the top seven in the division:

There were 27 total second basemen, and you can view the complete rankings and data here in Google Docs. Here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Orlando Hudson	LAD	627	.285	9	62	.359	.420	.345	-3.7	2.52
2	Felipe Lopez	AZ	375	.305	6	25	.366	.417	.351	3.8	2.25
3	Ryan Roberts	AZ	199	.303	7	16	.374	.506	.383	2.3	1.65
4	Clint Barmes	COL	551	.238	22	69	.286	.437	.301	7.0	1.60
5	Juan Uribe	SFG	131	.274	6	15	.331	.538	.380	3.5	1.25
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
23	Edgar Gonzalez	SDP	54	.234	0	3	.315	.319	.289	-2.1	-0.17
24	Ian Stewart	COL	73	.235	8	26	.274	.632	.349	-7.5	-0.39
25	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	102	.200	1	7	.294	.256	.266	-4.1	-0.48
26	Emmanuel Burriss	SFG	220	.238	0	13	.292	.267	.265	-3.7	-0.53
27	Eugenio Velez	SFG	106	.198	1	8	.226	.287	.231	-4.7	-0.80

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Eric Stephen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

One Type B free agent greets a Type A free agent on the mound

View full size photo »

There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:

Free Agents (13+1)

Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf

Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**

Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver

*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.

There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.

**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only

Options (2)

Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
George Sherrill	4.147	$2,750,000
Jonathan Broxton	4.020	$1,825,000
Andre Ethier	3.153	$3,100,000
Russell Martin	3.150	$3,900,000
Hong-Chih Kuo	3.114	$437,000
Chad Billingsley	3.110	$475,000
Matt Kemp	3.049	$467,000
James Loney	3.012	$465,000
Jason Repko	3.067	$500,000

Look for: Repko to get non-tendered

Under Contract (4)

Player	2009 Salary	2010 Salary
Rafael Furcal	$10,500,000	$8,500,000
Juan Pierre	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Casey Blake	$5,250,000	$6,000,000
Hiroki Kuroda	$10,000,000	$13,000,000

Under Team Control (15)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
Ramon Troncoso	1.119	$401,000
Clayton Kershaw	1.105	$404,000
Cory Wade	1.096	$402,500
Eric Stults	1.072	$402,000
Blake DeWitt	1.048	$405,000
James McDonald	1.004	$400,750
Ronald Belisario	1.000	$400,000
Chin-Lung Hu	0.153	$401,000
Xavier Paul	0.151	$400,000
Charlie Haeger	0.125	$400,000
Scott Elbert	0.097	$400,000
Brent Leach	0.090	$400,000
A.J. Ellis	0.081	$400,000
Travis Schlichting	0.055	$400,000
Lucas May	0.000	------

Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:

Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency

November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)

December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation

December 10: Rule 5 draft

December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players

It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Former Brewers manager Ned Yost looks great with someone else's logo behind him.

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Some things to read while keeping your pimp hand fuzzy.

The search for a new pitching coach might be about to get much more interesting: Rick Peterson, considered by most the odds on favorite to get the job, is also interested in the vacancy in Florida. If Peterson turns out to be unavailable, the search may start from scratch.

Meanwhile, yesterday was interview day for Ned Yost in Houston. Inexplicably, Yost still doesn't seem to understand why he was let go in Milwaukee, and said this when asked about it:

"Don't lose 10 out of 13 games is the best thing I can figure," Yost told reporters in Houston, "and hope your offense stays on track so you don't struggle to score runs."

Alyson Footer also quoted him as saying the Astros are "one starter away from having a really good staff." If the Astros hire Yost, fans in Houston can look forward to a 2010 season full of "really battling" and "being one pitch away from getting out of it."

In yesterday's Mug, I noted that Mike Burns had been outrighted to AAA, but neglected to mention that he's injured: He presumably still has the labrum pathology that he was diagnosed with at the end of the season. It's a bit more challenging to demote an injured player, but TheJay has a look at the CBA's rules regarding such transactions.

I also mentioned Jon Heyman's decision to leave Prince Fielder off his MVP ballot. Thankfully, we're not the only ones upset about it: James Bailey of Hardball Cooperative has an in-depth look at Heyman's ballot, and the reasons Fielder should be on it.

Plunk Everyone has compiled a list of difficulty rankings for several stats around baseball: Follow the link to see where Jason Kendall, Ryan Braun, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Prince Fielder, Braden Looper, Mike Cameron, Yovani Gallardo and Felipe Lopez rank among the best in baseball at the things they do.

If we learned one thing about Jody Gerut this season, it's this: he's miscast as a bench player. Among the 20 most frequently used pinch hitters in baseball this season, Gerut ranked 17th in OPS off the bench, ahead of only Mark Loretta, Greg Norton and Greg Dobbs. I have a feeling we'll have "Who is the real Jody Gerut?" conversations on more than one occasion this winter.

Further proof that it'd be really, really difficult to get fair value back in a deal involving Ryan Braun: Rowland's Office has a hypothetical deal sending Braun to the Braves for Jair Jurrjens, one of the game's top young pitchers. Even if you assume their expected values were exactly the same, Jurrjens has a few days over 2 years of service time, meaning he's under team control for four more seasons (through 2013), and will be arbitration eligible after next season. Braun, meanwhile, is under contract and cost controlled for two extra seasons (through 2015), and his salary never exceeds $12 million.

(I use Cot's Contracts all the time for info like that, and frequently forget to cite them. If you need contract info, Cot's is the place for it.)

In the AFL and on the farm:

Project Prospect's Friday topic of conversation is Lorenzo Cain, who's off to a pretty good start in the AFL and is expected to play roughly 4 times a week in an effort to bounce back from a rough 2009 season. They've also got a nice primer on what to expect from the AFL and they're looking for a scouting report on the speed of Taylor Green.
Wisconsin Sports Tap has a look at the season that was for the Huntsville Stars. It's kinda bleak down there, but Jonathan Lucroy is a nice bright spot.
Actually, statistics would suggest it was pretty bleak all over the Brewer minor leagues this season. Baseball America has the final batting leaderboards for 2009, and the only Brewer appearances are among the leaders in stolen bases (Eric Farris had 70) and strikeouts (Brock Kjeldgaard, Joe Koshansky and Brendan Katin all made the list).
As noted in BA's Minor League Transactions, the Brewers released 12 minor leaguers yesterday (FanShot). The most notable name on the list was 2004 third round pick Josh Wahpehpah.
Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Angel Salome all made Baseball America's list of the top 20 prospects in the Pacific Coast League. Tom Haudricourt had mentioned this previously, but that link will take you to the team's press release.
John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a look back at his top 50 pitching prospects entering 2009, including a pre-suspension Jeremy Jeffress.

The Hendies tournament continues over at Brew City Sports: Follow the link to cast your vote in the Excrement Eight.

If you like your roundups of Brewer news, but wish there was less reading involved and maybe a bit more rambling, then you may be the perfect candidate to try out View From Bernie's Chalet's new video blog.

Or, if you like Brewer related fan fiction, you may want to try out Witrado's Quest and Doug Melvin's Hunt for October.

I'm sure this is exactly what Major League Baseball had in mind for the postseason: After a long delay between rounds, baseball is back and the main topics of conversation are weather and divorce. Jon Heyman thinks the Yankees and Angels will get the game in tonight, but could have a hard time tomorrow. Diamond Leung has the scoop on each side's attorney in the McCourt fiasco.

It could be worse, though: Fans in Texas aren't getting playoff baseball, and they're also not getting their playoff ticket money back until sometime in November. (h/t 6-4-2) The money is reportedly "tied up with MLB," and may already have been used to pay off some of the cash the Rangers reportedly had to borrow to make payroll this season.

If you ever doubted the usefulness of Twitter, doubt no longer: In amidst conversation about last night's NLCS opener, Jason of IIATMS presented me with a Nickname of the Year contender: Ronnie "Staypuft" Belliard.

On this day in 1982, the Brewers scored six runs in the seventh inning en route to a 7-5 victory over the Cardinals, evening the World Series at two games apiece.

Happy birthday today to Freddy Parejo, who spent the 2009 season patrolling the outfields in Huntsville and Nashville and turns 25 today. Birthday wishes also go out to Brian Harper, who spent the 1994 season as a Brewer and turns 50.

That's all I have for you today, unless you wanted to read about the rebound of Krispy Kreme or the rising price of chicken wings. I found both of those links via C. Trent Rosecrans.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:12:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Prince Fielder, seen here checking under his jersey for another jersey, will likely be offered a long term contract by the Brewers this offseason, according to Jon Heyman.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while learning your costume's limitations.

Two more names have surfaced in the search for a new pitching coach: Former Arizona pitching coach Bryan Price and former Rays pitching coach Chuck Hernandez have both reportedly interviewed for the position this week (FanShot). Rick Peterson still appears to be the favorite, but Hernandez has worked with Macha before, and that fact seems to carry some weight for some reason.

It's widely accepted that Albert Pujols will win the NL MVP, but where will Prince Fielder finish? David Gassko of The Hardball Times has developed a system to predict the BBWAA's voting, and it predicts a third place finish for Fielder, behind Pujols and Ryan Howard. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman thinks the Brewers will attempt to sign Fielder to a long term deal this offseason.

USA Today has ranked the "shock wave" celebration following Fielder's walk-off home run on September 6 as one of their top ten highlights of the 2009 season. Certainly, it's a moment we'll remember for quite some time.

This is earlier than I normally do birthdays, but happy birthday to Trevor Hoffman, who turns 42 today. As Adam McCalvy notes, Hoffman will become the second oldest player in franchise history with his first appearance in 2010, and could pass Hank Aaron for first place by appearing in a game anytime after June.

Speaking of pitchers who should return next season, there's a new reason to join the Bring Back Seth McClung Facebook group. McClung has agreed to give an autographed ball to one randomly selected member of the group, to be chosen on Monday. Membership of the group more than doubled yesterday, but clearly we can do better. If you haven't joined yet, now is the time.

R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs has a look at Felipe Lopez, who is riding a career year into free agency for the second time. Anderson notes the differences between Lopez's 2005 and 2009 seasons.

We're just a few hours away from the start of the Arizona Fall League, as the Peoria Javelinas take on Ian Kennedy and the Surprise Rafters at 1:35 Central time today. Adam McCalvy has a preview of the AFL, complete with a link to this PDF of everything you ever wanted to know about the league, and this definition of a Javelina:

Here's something you won't find in that PDF: A javelina, according to the Arizona Game and Fish Department, is also known as a peccary, a medium-sized mammal that looks a bit like a pig. A terrifying, crazed pig.

Here are some other notes on the AFL:

As far as I know, none of the Brewer beat reporters will be in Arizona covering the AFL, but the Javelinas also feature prospects from the Seattle Mariners, and Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times will be in Arizona following them.
If Baker's coverage and ours aren't enough for you, you can also follow the AFL on Twitter.

Of course, the AFL isn't the only place where baseball is being played right now. The Nashville Sounds' website has a note on the 2009 Sounds playing winter ball in Venezuela. Hernan Iribarren's Cardenales de Lara defeated Adam Heether's Leones del Caracas last night, 7-1. Iribarren went 1-for-4 with a double and scored a run, while Heether went 0-for-3 with a walk.

Need a mental tune-up this morning? NoahJ wants to know how fast you can name the 39 players who appeared in a game for the Brewers this season. I did it with about four and a half minutes to spare, if you need a record to shoot for.

Oh, and if you haven't yet, you're running out of time to cast your ballot in Tangotiger's Fan Scouting Report. Even if you've already cast a ballot, you can stop by to rate some of the players that have recently been added, including Alcides Escobar.

If you've done both of those things and you're still looking for something to do, perhaps you should find a job? The Brewers are hiring an HR Coordinator.

Baseball America's Minor League Transactions include the first wave of players to become minor league free agents this offseason, and there's a bunch of former Brewers among them: Greg Aquino, R.J. Swindle, Glendon Rusch, R.A. Dickey and Joe Dillon. Also noted: The Brewers re-signed minor league free agents Jim Henderson (RP) and Patrick Arlis (C), but allowed Chris Duffy to become a free agent.

Elsewhere in the marketplace:

Intro to Sabermetrics 101 has a look at Carl Pavano, and why advanced metrics would imply he was better than his conventional numbers showed in 2009.
Jorge Says No! wonders if Jason Marquis' offseason asking price will go down now that he struggled down the stretch and had his start skipped in the NLDS last night.

Continuing their open search process, the Astros have released the names of the ten candidates for their vacant managerial position, and the list includes two former Brewer managers: Ned Yost, as expected, and Phil Garner, who would be entering his second tour of duty managing the team. Garner reportedly called to advocate for Bob Melvin, who coached under him in Milwaukee, but ended up as a candidate himself. The Astros, by the way, are not considering Willie Randolph.

It was a bittersweet moment at TBS headquarters last night, as the end of the final NLDS series meant they'll only get 13 of a possible 20 Division Series broadcasts, but that didn't keep them from celebrating the elimination of the last small market team. Of course, Hass Avocado is the true winner.

I wasn't exactly cheering on the Dodgers over the weekend, but when they won I was happy to see Mark Loretta playing a part in it. Loretta languished for years on some pretty terrible Brewer teams, so it's nice to see karma catching up with him.

I mentioned Trevor Hoffman's birthday above, but today birthday wishes also go out to Damian Miller, who turns 40.

Drink up.