SB Nation - Mike Lamb

Looking back at community projections: Third Basemen

KLSnow — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:00:35 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Casey McGehee pictured here hitting a grand slam, was an afterthought for most of us before the season.

Sometimes a tornado blows through and leaves everything exactly how it was. That's kind of how third base went for the Brewers this season: Nothing went exactly how we projected, but the end result was about the same.

Projections:

Bill Hall
Projected: .262/.329/.454
Actual: .201/.265/.341

Mat Gamel
Projected: .274/.334/.442
Actual: .242/.338/.422

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Before the season we were pretty optimistic about Bill Hall, with six of the nine projectors giving him an OPS of .780 or above. Instead, he played his way off the team and got to the point where the Brewers ate most of his salary and traded him to Seattle for a low level pitching prospect.

Worth noting: Mat Gamel's 2009 numbers don't really tell the whole story regarding his performance: Gamel hit .274/.340/.524 in 94 plate appearances as a third baseman, and went just 8-for-44 (.182) as a DH and pinch hitter.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Bill Hall	41.6%	30%	-11.6%
Mike Lamb	32.3%	0%	-32.3%
Mat Gamel	24.5%	13.4%	-11.1%
Craig Counsell	1.6%	19.1%	+17.5%
Casey McGehee	0%	37.4%	+37.4%

Obviously, we completely whiffed on Casey McGehee. When we made the projections, many of us expected Mike Lamb to take his place on the roster: Instead, Lamb declined an assignment to the minors at the end of spring training and didn't appear in the majors this season.

Meanwhile, Craig Counsell had a very good season for him, but the fact that he received 50% more playing time than Mat Gamel is puzzling at best.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.263	.330	.431	.762
Actual	.267	.330	.440	.770
Difference	+.004	Even	+.009	+.008

Looking Back at Community Projections: First Basemen

KLSnow — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Prince Fielder's 2009 numbers look even better when compared to what we expected.

Browse more photos »

Projections:

Prince Fielder
Projected: .284/.380/.547
Actual: .299/.412/.602

Obviously, we all got significantly more than we bargained for from Fielder this season. Not only did he start all 162 games and pick every Brewer at bat at first base, he slugged over .600, a full 25 points above the most optimistic of the 13 projections, and surpassed our OBP expectations by 32 points as well.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Prince Fielder	93%	100%	+7%
Brad Nelson	3.5%	0%	-3.5%
Mike Lamb	2.2%	0%	-2.2%
Mike Rivera	1.3%	0%	-1.3%

I'd say this is pretty self-explanatory. While all of us expected Fielder to play close to full time, none of us expected him to take every plate appearance by a Brewer first baseman this season. Brad Nelson was off the roster early, Mike Lamb didn't even make the team out of spring training and Mike Rivera never saw time at first. Casey McGehee was the only other Brewer to play there this season: He played four innings defensively and did not bat.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.282	.376	.538	.927
Actual	.299	.412	.602	1.014
Difference	+.017	+.036	+.066	+.087

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Browse more photos »

This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.

Twins Sign Mark Grudzielanek to Minor League Contract

Jesse — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 20:37:22 -0000

I'm surprised. Are you surprised? We shouldn't be surprised, it's a quintessential Twins move.

Mark Grudzielanek

#?? / Second Base / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jun 30, 1970

The following occurred between 12:45 and 12:46 pm CDT today:

Jesse: Grudz?
Jesse: Really?
Seth: Ya...just had it confirmed, too.
Jesse: Why am I surprised?

I don't want to set anyone up with the wrong idea here, because there are merits to this signing and I'll get to them later, but honestly: why was I surprised? The Twins organization has done a fantastic job over the years of acquiring veterans in twilight in the hope that they can provide some kind of depth or leadership. I could also add production, but that hasn't always been the case.

These signings have all fallen under one of two categories. Either these veterans were A) washed up and we all knew it (James Baldwin, Jesse Orosco, Juan Castro, Bret Boone, Ruben Sierra, Tony Batista, Phil Nevin, Jeff Cirillo, Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, Craig Monroe, Livan Hernandez, the return of Eddie Guardado, Luis Ayala, Sean Henn) or B) all things considered weren't a bad gamble (Tom Prince, Rick Reed, Kenny Rogers, Henry Blanco, Jose Offerman, Terry Mulholland, Pat Borders, Mike Redmond, Rondell White, Jason Tyner, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, R.A. Dickey). Of course, whether or not any of column B actually worked out is another matter altogether. But you're catching my drift, and I didn't even list all of Joe Mauer's third catchers.

Now we can officially add one Mark Grudzielanek to that list. I think the reason this signing surprised me is because Grudz was a free agent. It was almost too easy. Of course if the Twins were in contact with Grudz, you can bet they were probably in contact with Ray Durham, too. Let's get to the actual analysis of this deal.

Contract

Minnesota has offered Grudzielanek a minor league deal, and he'll report to a Gulf Coast League squad in Florida. He made $4.5 million with the Kansas City Royals in 2008, but suffice it to say he won't be making anywhere near that much this year. Financial terms haven't been disclosed, but I'd be surprised if it cracks the one million mark. It sounds like he did have offers in the off-season, being a Type B free agent, but he declined those offers.

Age

This is the bit that everyone is going to focus on: Grudz is 39. Most guys are out of the league by this time, whether that's by choice or not, but here's something to keep in mind: even at 38 he was a good player.

Offense

Patience & Discipline: Grudz hasn't really been a guy who walks a lot over the course of his career, but he makes up for that by being a great contact hitter. He makes contact on over 90% of his swings, and goes outside of the zone at right around the league average rate. Again, the walk rates (5% of plate appearances) are low, but Alexi Casilla (6%) and Brendan Harris (7%) aren't walk machines, either. He sees roughly 3.5 pitches per plate appearance.

Power: He's a career .395 slugger, .106 isolated power. As a full-time player he's always been good for plenty of doubles, but as far as the long-ball goes he's a middle infielder. This is a secondary concern for anyone playing second base.

Batted Ball: Grudz is a line-drive hitter. A lot of analysts will say that hitting line drives isn't a repeatable skill, and that might be accurate, but when you're hitting them at a rate that's better than league average year after year after year, something is going well.

Defense

Arm: This has never been a problem. He spent a lot of time at shortstop for the Expos earlier in his career, but for a guy who would be playing exclusively at second base, the arm is fine.

Range: Oddly enough, for a guy who was 38 last season his range didn't fall off too much. The problem is that he is a bit older, and having lost that first step does mean something. That's reflected in defensive metrics like UZR/150, which came in at 5.3 in 2008. Still above average, which is very much in line with Grudzielanek's history, it's just not what it was.

Conclusions

There are a lot of positives here; just not as many as we'd hoped as fans rooting for someone like Freddy Sanchez. This is a move that has zero risk for the Twins, who are still counting on Casilla to get the job done. If Casilla faulters again, it's not as though Minnesota would be wasting a roster spot by calling on Grudzielanek. The biggest focus as far as positives go though, and it's a big one, is this: it's not going to take much to improve on what the Twins have been given from second base this season. If Grudz is ready by the middle of August, comes up and hits .280/.330/.380, that's an improvement. As far as his defense goes, there would have to be something desperately wrong for him to have suddenly turned into a negative player in the field. For a guy like this, his offensive skills may disappear, but the glove will linger on.

What does leave me slightly disappointed is the fact that this is such a by-the-numbers move for the Twins. There's no risk here, but sometimes that's exactly what a team needs for a boost: a risk. A sign that, yes, dammit, this organization believes in you so much that we went out and put our own asses on the line. Sometimes I get the sense that the front office forgets that everything about baseball is a two-way street, it's all a relationship, from the fans to the players to the front office.

Baseball is a business. By that definition, picking up a guy like Grudzielanek is a good move simply because getting a guy to play league average anything at second base constitutes an upgrade. But I just had my sights on something a bit more substantial.

There's still time.

Poll

Which list does Grudz belong on?

A) He's washed up and we all know it.

53 votes

B) All things considered, not a bad signing.

245 votes

C) I've already ordered my "Grudz" jersey.

33 votes

331 votes | Poll has closed

Go Ahead, Criticize The One Thing He's Good At

Sam Page — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:59:14 -0000

Leave it to John Harper to come to the same conclusion as the rest of us, after exhausting the most backward logic, based on a wealth of misinformation. After the usual trumping up of Jerry Manuel's "request" for a trade, we begin:

But the problem is the Mets have so few desirable prospects at the upper levels of their farm system that Minaya is dealing from a position of weakness in trying to make any type of trade.

This statement would have been somewhat true before the promotion of Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, and Ike Davis. I'd say the Mets now have quite a few desirable prospects in the upper levels. In fact, here's a list of notable prospects in Buffalo and Binghamton: Jon Niese, Tobi Stoner, Michael Antonini, Eddie Kunz, Fernando Martinez, Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, Ike Davis, Shawn Bowman, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada, Dylan Owen, and sometimes Jonathan Malo. Wow, actually that's quite a few, seven of which should crack some top prospects lists. But go on...

Of course, he has only himself to blame for that, as the lack of prospects developed during Minaya's five-year regime with the Mets is a glaring failure. Never mind top prospects, the simple lack of major-league ready talent is haunting the big club at the moment as the Mets scramble to survive all their injuries.

Is the insinuation here that Omar should have some major league ready prospect ready to fill in everytime someone gets injured? No team can realistically do that, which is why bench player depth exists (hint, hint, the really glaring failure of the Minaya regime). Oh, what's this? Here comes the major-league ready talent graduated during Minaya's tenure list: Lastings Milledge, Daniel Murphy, John Maine, Nick Evans, Jon Niese, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Bobby Parnell. Not bad for a win-now team with a huge payroll.

Consider that the Mets' top two minor league teams are a combined 39 games under .500 - Triple-A Buffalo is 26-47, Double-A Binghamton is 28-46 - and it gives you an idea of how bleak the situation is.

Listen, I know expectations were high for Mike Lamb as the future face of the franchise, but there were signs. He had been cut from the Twins last year after batting .200. He was 33. We should have seen it coming. That, coupled with Willy Mo busting,...it's been a tough year for Mets fans.

Furthermore, one scout who observed Buffalo in mid-June recently said that Fernando Martinez was the only position player who could be considered a major-league prospect. The scout called the Mets' system "impotent" and openly wondered whether Minaya has had any kind of real plan in place other than acquiring high-priced free-agents.

Either Harper is quoting his scout friend, Cpt. Obvious, out of context, or they both have serious logic problems.

Ouch.

To be fair, the Mets did surrender a total of 11 players in the trades for Johan Santana and J.J. Putz the last two years, and at the time of the Putz deal last winter, Minaya made a point of telling reporters that his farm system deserved more respect.

alley...

To be just as fair, however, major leaguers Aaron Heilman and Endy Chavez were the key cogs in the Putz trade, and the Mets got Santana because the Twins were backed into a corner, unable to get the Yankees or Red Sox to package their top minor-league talent.

OOP!! Or perhaps it reflects well on Minaya's ability developing the farm and as a General Manager that he didn't trade his best young players for Santana? No, no, no, the Twins had to trade him because the Red Sox wouldn't offer Ellsbury and Buchholz.

"Sir, the Yankees won't trade Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy all at once."

"Who's that team that keeps offering four prospects for Mike Lamb? Y'know, the really impotent one?"

"The Mets?"

"Yea, see if they'll take Santana on too."

Did you ever think the Twins, arguably the greatest scouting team in the majors, might have liked Gomez and Guerra, both of whom were ranked as top prospects?

In addition, it's worth noting that outfielder Carlos Gomez, the centerpiece of the Santana trade, was in the Mets' system before Minaya became GM, and the Twins have been disappointed in the three minor-league pitchers, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and Philip Humber (who was released this spring), in the deal.

It's like...pitching prospects have a high rate or attrition...or something crazy like that! I'm sure the Twins would have been much happier getting the mythical Ian Kennedy/Phil Hughes package Harper alludes to. Those two have never disappointed.

P.S. Omar Minaya left his position with the Mets, where he was heavily involved in international scouting, in 2002. Carlos Gomez signed with the Mets as an international free agent in 2002. If you asked Omar Minaya what he thought about Carlos Gomez before he became the Mets' GM, he'd probably have an answer.

On the other hand, under Minaya the Mets have developed pitchers Mike Pelfrey and Bobby Parnell, as well as infielder Daniel Murphy. And signing free agents has cost them a couple of top draft picks in recent years.

but you already made me do the list!

But the real sticking point is the apparent failure to cash in on the Pedro Martinez signing five years ago. At the time Minaya essentially said he was willing to overpay for Pedro, in the form of $52 million over four years, because of the dividends it would provide, because every kid in the Dominican Republic would want to sign with the Mets.

Since then, however, the only such signings of significance appear to be Fernando Martinez, 19-year-old shortstop Ruben Tejada and 17-year-old shortstop Wilmer Flores. That's not exactly a pipeline of talent.

Those three players certainly don't suggest a pipeline of Dominican talent, mostly because only one of them is Dominican in the first place. Here are some Mets' prospects that are actually from the country he's talking about: Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia, Francisco Pena, Cesar Puello, Greg Veloz, Jeury Familia, Elvin Ramirez, and Juan Lagares. Notice that list does not account for many of the most recent signings and the Mets Dominican Baseball Academy in Boca Chica, DR.

-snip-
"By now I thought their system would be loaded with good (Latin) players," one major league scouting director said recently. "But for whatever reason, it hasn't happened."

Is it so bad the Mets don't throw three million dollars at every international prospect on the market? Yes, I wish they would go after more talents like Ynoa, but they seem to get the best bang for the buck of any MLB team. Which makes me wonder, has Harper ever heard of Jenrry Mejia? Signed for a relatively small bonus from the Dominican Republic...throws a 95 mph sinking fastball...is dominating AA as a teenager...no? Nevermind.

The same baseball people say the Mets do have attractive prospects at the lower levels of their minor-league system, Flores especially, and righthander Brad Holt, their first-round supplemental pick a year ago who was recently promoted to Double-A.

Brad Holt, a very attractive lower-level prospect, in the Mets upper-levels...

Either one would get the attention of a team looking to make a trade, but considering how few such prospects the Mets have, it hardly seems worth it to include them in quick-fix deals for someone like Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson or Aubrey Huff - or even Mark DeRosa, who was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals on Saturday.

Wow, how'd we get here? Yes, the Mets should not trade top prospects for a player that will only help minimally, but not because the farm system is barren. They shouldn't make those trades period. They're not going to be worth their prices, and the Mets have much bigger problems than what a DeRosa-type or Adam "0 WAR" Dunn is going to solve.

Listen, I blame Minaya for alot, but not for the work he's done internationally or with the farm system. The Mets have their best farm in 10 years and are in a great position to develop a fantastic young team. There was nothing before Minaya, except what he had left behind from his scouting days and Steve Philips' favorite Jose Cruz Jr. trade bait, David Wright.

Which reminds me, do you remember why the Mets are so desperate for a trade, Mr. Harper? They lost a shortstop, who you affectionately called a headcase, who Minaya signed for nothing out of the Dominican Republic. Does that count as major-league ready talent?

Crede deals with ghosts of Twins third basemen past

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:00:21 -0000

Last year, about this time, we took a look at Mike Lamb's 2008 season - and concluded that he wasn't doing much more than Tony Batista had been doing in 2006. The Twins cut Batista loose after 50 games in 2006, and dropped Lamb after 81 last season.

So, while no one is suggesting that he be dropped, it's only fair to examine Joe Crede, as he is Minnesota's 2009 solution at third base. Crede has had 192 plate appearances this year, just three fewer than Batista got in 2006 (and five more than Lamb had at the time of last year's article), so the timing's about right.

Here's the tale of the tape*:

	BATISTA ('06)	LAMB ('08 thru 6/3)	CREDE ('09)
BA	.236	.247	.228
OBP	.303	.283	.297
SLG	.388	.335	.456
OPS	.691	.618	.753
HR	5	1	10
RBI	21	24	27
Runs created	24	23	24
OPS, last 20 games	.685	.707	.770
BABIP	.276	.266	.221
Line-drive %	21.9%	18.2%	16.3%
UZR/150	-13.5	-18.4^	34.3

*Statistic sources: UZR/150 from Fangraphs.com, BABIP/LD% from The Hardball Times, all others from Baseball-Reference.com
^Lamb's fielding number only available for entire 2008 season

A few things jump out at me from this comparison, so let's discuss:

Crede is so much better on defense than either Lamb or Batista, there's just no comparison. Both Batista and Lamb were absolute liabilities at third base. Meanwhile, if you go by Ultimate Zone Rating (the number above is per 150 defensive games), Crede has been the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Strictly in the field, Crede's been worth 15 runs more than Batista in 2006, and likely about the same number more than Lamb last season at this point.
Crede's power numbers dwarf his predecessors, though his on-base numbers are just as bad. This is a function of his home run numbers, and nothing else. He has about the same number of extra base hits as both Batista and Lamb; it's just that his few have flown over the wall.
Crede hits an extraordinary number of fly balls (almost half the time), and has done so for several years. He hits the fewest ground balls on the team (35.6%), and so few line drives that even Delmon Young hits more. Consequently, his batting average, even when he hits the ball (BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, above) is horrible, since most of the time the ball either ends up in the stands or in an outfielder's glove. Crede's 10 home runs are many more than either Lamb or Batista, but for example, he's hit fewer doubles and triples than either one.

Ultimately, the conclusion I draw from the numbers is that Crede's contribution this year has been about 15-20 runs over what the Twins got from either Batista in 2006 or Lamb in 2008. That's about equal to two wins. (Not to mention that if Crede wasn't playing, Brian Buscher might be, and that would have translated into probably 2-3 fewer wins, as well.)

Are you frustrated with Crede? That .228 batting average could vex the calmest among us. But take heart - he's much better than the guys who've manned third base in the past.

Draft Day Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 12:00:17 -0000

Round 1 Archives
Pick 1: Washington Nationals, Stephen Strausburg, RHP
Pick 2: Seattle Mariners, Dustin Ackley, CF/1B
Pick 3: San Diego Padres, Donavan Tate, CF
Pick 4: Pittsburgh Pirates, Jorge Sanchez, C
Pick 5: Baltimore Orioles, Matthew Hobgood, RHP
Pick 6: San Francisco Giants, Zack Wheeler, RHP
Pick 7: Atlanta Braves, Mike Minor, LHP
Pick 8: Cincinnati Reds, Mike Leake, RHP
Pick 9: Detroit Tigers, Jacob Turner, RHP
Pick 10: Washington Nationals, Drew Storen, RHP
Pick 11: Colorado Rockies, Tyler Matzek, LHP
Pick 12: Kansas City Royals, Aaron Crow, RHP
Pick 13: Oakland Athletics, Grant Green, SS
Pick 14: Texas Rangers, Matt Purke, LHP
Pick 15: Cleveland Indians: Alex White, RHP
Pick 16: Arizona Diamondbacks: Bobby Borchering, 3B
Pick 17: Arizona Diamondbacks: A.J. Pollock, CF
Pick 18: Florida Marlins: Chad James, LHP
Pick 19: St. Louis Cardinals: Shelby Miller, RHP
Pick 20: Toronto Blue Jays: Chad Jenkins, RHP
Pick 21: Houston Astros, Jiovanni Mier, SS
Pick 22: Minnesota Twins, Kyle Gibson, RHP
Pick 23: Chicago White Sox, Jared Mitchell, CF
Pick 24: Los Angeles Angels, Randal Grichuk, RF
Pick 25: Los Angeles Angels, Mike Trout, CF
Pick 26: Milwaukee Brewers, Eric Arnett, RHP
Pick 27: Seattle Mariners, Nick Franklin, SS
Pick 28: Boston Red Sox, Reymond Fuentes, CF
Pick 29: New York Yankees, Zack Heathcott, CF
Pick 30: Tampa Bay Rays, LeVon Washington, 2B
Pick 31: Chicago Cubs, Brett Jackson, CF
Pick 32: Colorado Rockies, Tim Wheeler, CF

With the draft about to kick off, here's MLB.com's revised Top 10 boad

Washington: Stephen Strausburg, RHP
Seattle: Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF
San Diego: Donovan Tate, OF
Pittsburgh: Tony Sanchez, C
Baltimore: Zack Wheeler, RHP
San Francisco: Tyler Matzek, LHP
Atlanta: Mike Minor, LHP
Cincinatti: Alex White, RHP
Detroit: Shelby Miller, RHP
Washington: Drew Storen, RHP

The 2009 amateur-entry draft kicks off tonight at 5pm central time. We'll have coverage tonight of the Twins top picks. In the mean time, feel free to kick around a little discussion.

There's been a lot of talk about Minnesota drafting a prep pitcher in the first round, something they haven't done since 2004 with Kyle Waldrop and Jay Rainville

20 Years of Twins 1st-Round Picks
2008: Aaron Hicks
2008: Carlos Gutierrez
2008: Shooter Hunt
2007: Ben Revere
2006: Chris Parmelee
2005: Matt Garza
2005: Henry Sanchez
2004: Trevor Plouffe
2004: Glen Perkins
2004: Kyle Waldrop
2004: Matt Fox
2004: Jay Rainville
2003: Matt Moses
2002: Denard Span
2001: Joe Mauer
2000: Adam Johnson
2000: Aaron Heilman
1999: B.J. Garbe
1998: Ryan Mills
1997: Michael Cuddyer
1997: Matt LeCroy
1996: Travis Lee
1995: Mark Redman
1994: Todd Walker
1994: Travis Miller
1993: Torii Hunter
1993: Jason Varitek
1993: Mark Barcelo
1993: Kelcey Mucker
1992: Dan Serafini
1991: David McCarty
1991: Scott Stahoviak
1990: Todd Ritchie
1990: Midre Cummings
1989: Chuck Knoblauch

Draft Trivia:

In the 17th round of the 2000 draft, the Twins drafted Paul Maholm. Maholm went to college, and three years later was drafted in the 8th round by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's now one of their young, premier players, who's contract was likely a starting point for the long-term Scott Baker deal.
Another 17th round draft pick, J.J. Putz in 1998, went back to college for a year before being drafted in the sixth round the following season. He's a bit of a head case, but for a short period was one of the game's premier closers.
1997 wasn't just a good draft for the Twins, producing a small handful of regulars for future seasons (including J.C. Romero and Michael Restovich), but it was also a draft of fate. Nick Punto was drafted in the 33rd round, but re-entered the draft. Adam Johnson was selected in the 25th round, only to re-surface three years later as the team's number one pick. Kevin Frederick was drafted in the 34th round of the 1998 draft by the Twins, but the season before they'd chosen him in the 17th round.
In the 33rd round of the '96 draft, the Twins selected Mike Lamb. Another one to return to the draft, he'd return 12 years later.
Minnesota actually selected Emil "Drop It Like It's Hot" Brown in the 37th round of the 1993 draft. In retrospect, the world rejoiced when he let the Athletics draft him in '94.
Twenty years ago, in addition to Knoblauch, the Twins also drafted Marty Cordova, Denny Neagle, Scott Erickson, Mike Trombley and Denny Hocking. They all played major roles with the team at some point in their careers, even Neagle: he and Midre Cummings were later traded for John Smiley.

Poll

How will the Twins draft for their first pick?

Prep Pitcher

39 votes

College Pitcher

44 votes

Prep Position Player

16 votes

College Position Player

9 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

Clever Headline Goes Here: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks, Wednesday 4/29, 2:40 CT

Al — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 17:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Here's another perfect "Make Up Your Own Caption" photo.

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Intersting stat note: Alfonso Soriano has seven homers in April. That's one short of the club record for the month (set by Sammy Sosa in 2000), with two games to go.

Bad news from that same link:

Sidelined since Friday because of a calf strain, third baseman Aramis Ramirez showed little improvement again Tuesday and could be facing the disabled list by the end of the week.

"He ran but couldn't accelerate at all," manager Lou Piniella said. "The plan is we're going to wait until Thursday and have him run again in Chicago, and if it's not any better then, we're going to have to weigh all our options. ... We don't have any infielders."

A-Ram is the Cubs' best all-around hitter and they miss his defense at 3B. If he has to be DL'd, they are going to have to go outside the organization, I think, to find someone to fill in -- having Mike Fontenot at 3B and Aaron Miles at 2B is not really something you'd want to do for any length of time. If only Jake Fox could play third base. But he can't. It's a real shame that Corey Koskie couldn't come back; he'd have been a perfect backup if healthy. So would have Mike Lamb, had he not just signed with the Mets.

Good news: Derrek Lee is expected back in the lineup this afternoon.

Go figure: Chad Gaudin, in his first start for the Padres, threw five scoreless innings. In Coors Field.

The roof at Chase Field was open for the two night games, but I'm guessing it will be closed this afternoon, as temperatures push past 90 and many D'backs pitchers prefer it closed; the ball doesn't seem to carry as well there with the roof closed.

In addition to making up a caption for the attached photo of Lou and Kosuke, perhaps you can come up with a clever headline for this game preview post. Sometimes the headlines write themselves; sometimes they come easily. Today, neither happened.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ryan Dempster Cubs	vs.	Doug Davis Diamondbacks

1-0	W-L	1-3
4.88	ERA	3.67
21	SO	20
11	BB	7
3	HR	5
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Dempster	1-0	4	4	0	0	0	0	24.0	23	13	13	3	11	21	4.88	1.42

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Doug Davis	1-3	4	4	0	0	0	0	27.0	28	11	11	5	7	20	3.67	1.30

Doug Davis has handled the Cubs much better than most teams -- 7-6 lifetime with a 3.52 ERA, compared to his sub-.500, 4.22 career ERA. He keeps them off balance with junk. None of the current Cubs really hits him well -- Ryan Theriot is about the best at 4-for-9. Like a lot of Arizona's starters, they haven't hit during his starts, which is a big reason he's 1-3; the D'backs have scored a total of six runs in his four starts. So I wanted to mention Davis' major league debut on August 9, 1999 for the Rangers, in which he came in in relief with a manageable 6-3 deficit and by the time he was removed, he had given up 11 hits, 3 homers and 10 earned runs. May he have such a day today.

As I wrote last time he started, Ryan Dempster has got to stop walking so many hitters. Last year his success was, in part, due to the fact that he kept his walks down. He did a bit better in his last start, walking only one in six innings. Dempster is 1-4, 5.73 lifetime vs. the Diamondbacks, but most of that comes from several bad starts he made long before he was a Cub. Among current D'backs, only Felipe Lopez (4-for-23) has more than 6 career AB vs. Ryan, who threw six innings of three-hit, seven-K ball vs. Arizona in his only start against them in 2008 on May 10; the Cubs won, but Dempster got a no-decision that day.

Today's game is a cable extravaganza on CSN Chicago and FSN Arizona. For more see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:50:14 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Trevor Hoffman is back and ready to make his Brewer debut.

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Some things to read while rocking some yellow pants.

Trevor Hoffman is relieved to be back with the team after spending the first 17 games on the disabled list. He did not appear in yesterday's game but was available and presumably will be again today if the Brewers take a lead into the ninth.

Where does Hoffman rank among baseball's greatest pitchers? One voter at Dugout Central ranked him among their top five pitchers who have never won a Cy Young Award. Former Brewer Don Sutton also appeared on three ballots.

Entering play on Sunday, the Brewers had thrown out just two of 15 attempted base stealers this season, but is that a problem? The Wall Street Journal says controlling the running game may not necessarily lead to team success.

The Brewers open up a three game series with the ~~Diamondbacks~~ Pirates tonight, and project to send their three best 2009 starting pitchers to the mound: Braden Looper, Dave Bush and Yovani Gallardo. Dave Bush will be making his first appearance since throwing a near no-hitter last week. Cute Sports noted that all three of Bush's near no-hitters have been broken up by former Brewers. Beyond the Box Score has a look at the location of Yovani Gallardo's pitches from his complete game Friday night.

The Brewer minor leagues suffered a major blow over the weekend, as Lorenzo Cain suffered a torn MCL, likely ending his 2009 season. Cain could be the center fielder of the future but will have a lot to prove in 2010, as he'll enter the season having played about half a season over the last two years. (h/t FanShot)

With the Brewers on the road this weekend, the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers borrowed Miller Park for a night, playing a Midwest League game against the Peoria Chiefs. If you'd like to see photos of the game from every possible angle, here's a FanPost, a FanShot and two posts from Cute Sports.

It's never too early to start updating your projections. On Saturday, Baseball Analysts updated the 2009 PECOTA projections to take the first three weeks of results into consideration. The Brewers were 7-9 at the time and projected for exactly 81 wins.

Around the league:

Angels: Designated reliever Daniel Davidson for assignment.
Astros: Catcher Humberto Quintero is on the DL with a strained shoulder following a collision with Mike Cameron on Friday.
Braves: Brian McCann has been placed on the DL with an eye infection, and Garret Anderson has also been DL'ed.
D-Backs: Brandon Webb will be out at least six more weeks after experiencing a setback in his rehab from shoulder bursitis. Also, Stephen Drew was placed on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Marlins: Designated reliever Logan Kensing for assignment.
Mets: Designated Casey Fossum for assignment. They also signed Nelson Figueroa and Mike Lamb to minor league deals.
Orioles: SP Alfredo Simon has been diagnosed with degenerative tissue in his elbow and will undergo season-ending surgery.
Padres: Placed Shawn Hill on the DL with elbow inflammation.
Pirates: Jack Wilson has been placed on the DL with a swollen finger on his glove hand.
Royals: Designated C Brayan Pena for assignment.
Tigers: Matt Treanor will require surgery to correct a sports hernia and will be out at least two months.
Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang has been placed on the DL with "weakness in his hips."

This isn't an injury note yet, but it could be soon: Astros pitcher Jose Valverde, who pitched in both Saturday and yesterday's games against the Brewers, is limping noticeably and has Astros.com beat reporter Alyson Footer concerned.

Oh, and if you're looking for something to do today, the Timber Rattlers are playing an 11 am doubleheader in Davenport after yesterday's game was postponed due to rain. The weather in Iowa isn't great today either, but they should be able to get the games in, and you can hear them here.

Drink up.

Farewell To Arizona (For 2009): Cubs vs. Indians at Mesa, Thursday 4/2, 2:05 CT

Al — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 17:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Today's starting pitcher, Ryan Dempster. This photo is from his last outing against the Rockies in Tucson last Saturday. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)

Browse more photos »

Don't forget! Today's game starts an hour earlier than yesterday; if it's anything like last year's final spring game, the regulars will play about three or four innings and then traipse across the field in street clothes to the bus that's taking them to the airport to whisk them to New York for the pair of games against the Yankees.

Speaking of which, Lou changed his mind. Ted Lilly's going to NYC after all; if the rainy weather prevents him from pitching in the actual game, he'll still get his work in, throwing in the batting cages. From that Gordon Wittenmyer article we also learn:

• • Former Cub Sean Gallagher lost his job in Oakland's rotation without even pitching Wednesday. Athletics manager Bob Geren said after the 8-8 tie against the Cubs that Gallagher is ''competing for a bullpen job.'' As recently as last week, Gallagher was considered a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

• • The Cubs and Under Armour Inc. have reached a deal for the athletic apparel company to continue as the only advertiser on the outfield wall at Wrigley Field. The Cubs dropped a lawsuit filed in January that accused Under Armour of reneging on a previous deal.

Bruce Miles has Z's pitch count from yesterday: 63. Expect Ryan Dempster to go about that far today, too. Bruce also tells us that:

The Cubs don't have immediate interest in third baseman Mike Lamb, released by the Milwaukee Brewers, but it's possible they could look into a minor-league deal for Lamb in the near future.

Lamb, a left-handed batter, played with Milwaukee and Minnesota last year. He has a lifetime .277 batting average, a .333 on-base percentage and a .417 slugging percentage. The Cubs saw plenty of Lamb when he played for Houston from 2004-07. Lamb's release was due in part to former Cub Casey McGehee apparently making the Brewers' big-league club.

So let me get this straight: the Cubs are interested in a 33-year-old third baseman who had a bad year last year and who was beaten out for a roster spot by someone the Cubs let go on waivers last fall? Couldn't they have just kept Casey McGehee in that case?

From Paul Sullivan: yesterday's lineup was the likely lineup you'll see against LHP this year, except that Lou...

... wasn't sure whether Aaron Miles will start over Mike Fontenot at second base against Astros left-hander Wandy Rodriguez next Wednesday.

Speaking of Houston, remember the last time Z faced them? Carlos reminisces.

Ryan Dempster, as noted, will start against the Indians' Anthony Reyes. Expect widespread substitutions. The game is available at the MLB.com Mediacenter. If you are in the Cleveland are, the WMMS broadcast is running on tape delay and can be heard at 7 pm EDT.

MLB.com Gameday

Discuss amongst yourselves.