SB Nation - Eric Bruntlett

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:02:27 -0000

More photos » by Jacques Boissinot - AP

Eric Gagne, seen here in his Quebec Capitales uniform from the Can-Am League, is looking to return to the majors. The Brewers aren't interested.

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Some things to read while I work on the logistics of this.

No matter how ugly this offseason gets, at least we know it won't be this bad: The Brewers are not interested in a reunion with Eric Gagne, who spent the 2009 season pitching in the independent Can-Am League. I'm guessing interest in his services will be pretty light.

Speaking of moves that probably won't be made, Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers are unlikely to make a deal to clear up the logjam in their infield, unless "the pitching equivalent of Mat Gamel" is on the table. I'm not sure where the Brewers will find ABs for both Gamel and McGehee, but I'd guess Gamel might start 2010 in AAA if both return.

It's a light news day, so I scraped the bottom of the barrel for a roundup of players that have been mentioned in association with the Brewers over the last few weeks:

Brewer Paradise Lost ended their long hiatus with a post advocating for signing Jarrod Washburn.
Jack Moore of FanGraphs looks at Edwin Jackson's improved 2009 season, and says he still shouldn't be considered an elite pitcher.
Meanwhile, Dave Allen of FanGraphs looks at Joel Pineiro's decreasing walk rate and ability to get ground balls.
Lyle Spencer of MLB.com says John Lackey is believed to be seeking "Barry Zito dollars." This could be a great deal, as Zito dollars look great on the surface but perform at a tiny percentage of their expected worth.
If Craig Counsell really is considering offers from other teams this offseason, Omar Vizquel might be one name mentioned as a possible replacement. Vizquel, however, appears to want to play for a higher-profile team. The Phillies are the early favorite to sign him.
Dayn Perry lists Mike Cameron to the Cardinals as one of ten moves that need to happen this offseason.

After weeks of wondering about his whereabouts, TheJay found Adam Heether yesterday...sort of. A news story from his Venezuelan team's home page says Heether can't be released while he's injured. There's no mention of the details of the injury, or why they would want to release him in the first place...Heether was hitting .214/.389/.371 in his first 21 games.

Elsewhere in the minors, Wisconsin Sports Tap has ranked the top 15 outfielders in the Brewer system. The cupboard is pretty bare at the upper levels of the minors, but there's good depth in the lower levels that could develop into an organizational strength.

Just one transaction of note today:

Phillies: Removed infielder Eric Bruntlett from their 40-man roster.

I don't know why I waited this long to mention this, because it makes me laugh nearly every day: If you haven't seen it yet, you should be checking out the "Faces" series at Lookout Landing.

Over the last decade, we've seen major organizational shifts across baseball to emphasize the development and value of prospects. Minor League Baseball is setting record attendance numbers as fans come out to see the players of the future, and teams are taking great strides to protect their investments. Why, then, are the same players being fed a steady diet of junk food before and after games? Garrett Broshuis has a look at he diet of minor leaguers, and the challenges they face trying to find healthy options.

In yesterday's Fall/Winter League Update, I mentioned that D-Backs first baseman Conor Jackson is leading all Dominican batters with a .561 OBP this winter. That's even more impressive when you remember a detail I forgot: Jackson is recovering from Valley Fever, which cost him a large portion of the 2009 season.

B-Ref sponsorships are a great way to help support a site many of us use every day and frequently take for granted, but they're also a great opportunity for jokes: Baseball Junk Drawer has a top ten list of the best page sponsorship comments. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

Happy birthday today to:

Matt Wise, who posted a 3.93 ERA in 175 games as a Brewer and turns 34.
1991-1992 Brewer Dante Bichette, who turns 46.
Mike Felder, who spent 1985-1990 as a Brewer and turns 48.

Today is also the 41st anniversary of the birth of Gary Sheffield. While "Happy birthday" doesn't really seem appropriate, it merited acknowledgment.

I missed it yesterday, but today appears to be another Woot-off Day.

Oh, and don't forget to check the IQ. (h/t @AccidentalWI)

Drink up.

Congratulations ScottAZ -- Winner of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest

David S. Cohen — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:46:07 -0000

The World Series is over, and the results of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest are in. Congratulations to ScottAZ for getting 6 points in the context. FuquaManuel tied ScottAZ, but as the rules state, I did a random drawing and ScottAZ won. I'll be contacting ScottAZ shortly about the prize.

Here are the answers to each question asked in the contest.

Cliff Lee wins: 2
Ryan Howard home runs: 1
Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins stolen bases (combined total): 3
Eric Bruntlett plate appearances: 1
Phillies starting pitcher innings not by Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez: 10.3
Brett Myers innings pitched: 1
Jimmy Rollins walks: 5
Brad Lidge saves: 0
Alex Rodriguez hits with runners in scoring position: 2
Mariano Rivera runs allowed: 0
World Series outcome (victor and # of games): Yankees in 6

A couple of entries are worth noting. Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 had 5 points, the highest point total for an entry not guessing the correct outcome of the Series. (Both ScottAZ and FuquaManuel guessed Yankees in 6, which was worth 3 points.) And Phils 2036 World CH guessed correctly that Jimmy Rollins would have 5 walks, something I consider an absurd guess and outcome!

Thanks to all for playing. Let's do this again next October!

Three Up, Three Down: Reasons The Phillies Will Win (or Lose) Tonight

David S. Cohen — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:03:43 -0000

The Phillies faced their first elimination game in two years on Monday night and prevailed. Can they do it again tonight? Here are three reasons they will, and three reasons they won't:

The Good

1) Road Warriors. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road team in baseball this year. The Phillies went 48-33, with a +70 run differential away from CBP this year. The Phillies have played five games at Yankee Stadium so far this year, and have outscored the Yankees 22-15. Their record at Yankee Stadium is 3-2 in those five games, but the two losses were incredibly close, one coming on a Brad Lidge blown save and another despite Pedro Martinez's gem last week.

2) Rested and ready. Despite some criticism, Charlie Manuel's decision to keep his pitchers on normal rest could pay off huge. Pedro Martinez, on 5 days rest, is going up against Andy Pettitte, on 3 days rest. Martinez has always been at his best when he's on regular 4 or 5 day rest. When he gets too much rest, 6 days or more, his game suffers. Batters hit him better (a .070 jump in OPS on his career, about a .200 jump this year) and he gives up more runs (his ERA jumps about 1.00 on his career, about 3.00 this year). Martinez is in his sweet spot going on 5 days rest. On the other hand, Pettitte will be challenged on 3 days rest. For his career, Pettitte is only slightly worse on 3 days rest compared to regular rest. But, here's the rub -- he hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since 2006, when he was 34. The body works differently at 37.

3) Righty power. The Phillies right-handed hitters can demolish Pettitte. Even though Pettitte had a small reverse platoon split this year (.730 OPS for lefties, .717 for righties) and just a very small platoon split for his career (.728 OPS for righties, .711 for lefties), the Phillies righties have demolished Pettitte in the past. It's all on the small to miniscule sample size end of the spectrum, but the results have been great. Including the post-season, Jayson Werth has a .188/.188/750 line with 3 home runs in 16 plate appearances, Pedro Feliz has a .300/.462/.400 line in 13 plate appearances, Ben Francisco has a .400/.500/.400 line in 6 plate appearances, and Carlos Ruiz has a .500/.667/1.250 line in 6 plate appearances. The Phillies' switch hitters have not done well but have held their own against Pettitte, with Shane Victorino posting a .375/.333/.375 line in 9 plate appearances and Jimmy Rollins a .250/.286/.400 line in 21 plate appearances.

The Bad

1) Hometown heroes. The Yankees had the best home record in baseball, at 57-24. Since July 1, the Yankees are even better, with a 35-10 record at home. They'll be returning to their home crowd with a chance to win their first World Series at home since 1999. For most franchises, that's not that long of a time between opportunities. For Yankees fans, that's three lifetimes.

2) Lefty troubles. It's been well documented how poorly the Phillies' lefties not named Chase Utley have performed this Series. It gets worse when you look at how they've performed historically against Pettitte. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have a combined 2 singles, 8 strikeouts, and 1 walk against him in 23 career plate appearances. Raul Ibanez has been better, but not much. Thanks to playing most of his career in the AL, he has 25 plate appearances against Pettitte, in which he's put up a .250/.280/.417 line with 1 home run, 7 strikeouts, and no walks.

3) DH. Shane Victorino will be a game time decision tonight. If he's not able to make it because of his sore finger, the Phils will be forced to play Francisco in center, keep Ibanez in left, and DH either Eric Bruntlett or Matt Stairs. Bruntlett has had a truly awful year this year, and Stairs has been a non-existent hitter since July 1 (.082/.274/.245 line for the last three months of the season). They are a combined 0 for 10 lifetime against Pettitte. With the DH adding Hideki Matsui to the Yankees' lineup, if the Phillies counter with Bruntlett or Stairs, they're in big trouble.

The Outcome

With six hours to go until game time, these are the important factors that could influence this game. All in all, I think Pettitte's short rest combined with the righty dominance the Phillies have shown over him will win the day, and we'll see a Game 7 battle tomorrow night. Here's hoping....

2009 World Series Game Three Recap -- Yankees 8, Phillies 5

WholeCamels — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 04:47:11 -0000

The Phils lose their first post-season game to a lefty over the past two years and go down 2-1 to the Yankees. Three story lines to tonight:

1) Tonight was Cole Hamels' season in a nutshell. He pitched great for three innings yet couldn't get out of the fifth thanks to a combination of bad luck and not being able to put hitters away on two strike counts. Alex Rodriguez's home run, which followed a Mark Texeira walk in which he came back from a 1-2 count (with help from the home plate ump), was the shortest a home run could be at CBP (and needed the aid of instant replay). Nick Swisher's double was just fair. Andy Pettitte's RBI single was a true bloop. Derek Jeter's single could have been caught by Shane Victorino. Only Johnny Damon's double was hit hard. Yet Cole gives up 5 earned in 4.3 innings.

2) The Phillies' offensive lefties were no-shows tonight. On the other hand (literally), the righties were dominant. If the lefties could have put anything on the board tonight, the game would have been much closer.

3) Charlie Manuel's managing when the game was still tight was awful. Pinch-hitting Eric Bruntlett in the sixth with a man on first, down by only 2, and Pettitte over 100 pitches was inexcusable. Ben Francisco was the obvious choice. If not him, any right-handed hitter in the stands would be better than Bruntlett. Then, in the top of the seventh, with Chad Durbin struggling, Manuel had no one warming in the bullpen and was forced to let Durbin close out the inning. Of course, Durbin gave up a run putting the game that much further out of reach. The Bruntlett pinch hit appearance and Durbin full inning were turning points.

Yet, as bad as tonight felt, we're only down 1 game. Joe Blanton faces CC Sabathia Sunday night to even the series. Let's go Phils!

The 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest

David S. Cohen — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:29:00 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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Hey, let's make this an annual ritual. Once again, we're getting ready for Game 1 of the World Series. A rematch of the 1950 Series and a matchup between the two largest East Coast cities. Jimmy Rollins is being Jimmy Rollins, and New York Yankees fans are being New York Yankees fans. Should be a great series.

And, here we're once again offering you a chance to turn your opinion about the series into Phillies merchandise with The 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest.

We're using the same basic format as last year. Each of the items below is worth 1 point, except for the ultimate series prediction which is worth 3 points. The winner is the entrant who gets the most points (ties are decided by random drawing). The winner will receive one Phillies knit hat and one Phillies 2009 t-shirt (either NL champs or World Series champs).

All items are for the World Series only.

Cliff Lee wins:
Ryan Howard home runs:
Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins stolen bases (combined total):
Eric Bruntlett plate appearances:
Phillies starting pitcher innings not by Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez:
Brett Myers innings pitched:
Jimmy Rollins walks:
Brad Lidge saves:
Alex Rodriguez hits with runners in scoring position:
Mariano Rivera runs allowed:
World Series outcome (victor and # of games):

Good luck!!

[Limit one entry per screen name. I'll take the latest entry if you enter multiple times. Entries close at first pitch.]

Player Origins of the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies

John Sickels — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:03:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Philadelphia Phillies infielder Jimmy Rollins, drafted in the second round in 1996.(AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Philadelphia Phillies: Player Origins

Here are the player development origins of the 2009 National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

PITCHERS:

Antonio Bastardo, LHP: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2005.

Joe Blanton, RHP: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the first round in 2002, from the University of Kentucky. Acquired by the Phillies in a trade with Oakland in July 2008.

Chad Durbin, RHP: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the third round in 1996, from high school in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in December 2007.

Scott Eyre, RHP: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the ninth round in 1991, from the Junior College of Southern Idaho. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Cubs in August 2008.

Cole Hamels, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2002, out of high school in San Diego, California.

J.A. Happ, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the third round in 2004, from Northwestern University.

Cliff Lee, LHP: Drafted by the Montreal Expos in the fourth round in 2000, from the University of Arkansas. Acquired in a trade with the Indians this summer.

Brad Lidge, RHP: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the first round in 1998, from the University of Notre Dame. Acquired in a trade with the Astros in November 2007.

Ryan Madson, RHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the ninth round in 1998, out of high school in Moreno Valley, California.

Pedro Martinez, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1988. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from South Korea in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent.

POSITION PLAYERS

Paul Bako, C: Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the fifth round in 1993, out of the University of Southwestern Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Eric Bruntlett, INF: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the ninth round in 2000, out of Stanford University. The Phillies got him in a trade with Houston in 2007.

Miguel Cairo, INF: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 1990. Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 2009.

Greg Dobbs, INF: Signed by the Seattle Mariners as an undrafted free agent from the University of Oklahoma in 2001. The Phillies claimed him on waivers in 2007.

Pedro Feliz, 3B: Signed by the San Francisco Giants as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in 2008.

Ben Francisco, OF: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the fifth round in 2002 from UCLA. The Phillies acquired him in a trade this summer with the Indians.

Ryan Howard, 1B: Drafted by the Phillies in the fifth round in 2001, from Southwest Missouri State University (now known as Missouri State University).

Raul Ibanez, OF: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 36^th round in 1992, from Miami-Dade Community College-South. The Phillies signed him as a free agent last winter.

Jimmy Rollins, SS: Drafted by the Phillies in the second round in 1996, out of high school in Alameda, California.

Carlos Ruiz, C: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 1998, out of Panama.

Matt Stairs, OF: Signed by the Montreal Expos as an undrafted free agent in 1989, out of high school in Canada. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Blue Jays in 2008.

Chase Utley, 2B: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2000, out of UCLA.

Shane Victorino, OF: Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth round in 1999, out of high school in Wailuku, Hawaii.. Selected in the 2005 Rule 5 draft.

Jayson Werth, OF: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the first round in 1997, out of high school in Chatham, Illinois. Signed as a free agent by the Phillies in 2006.

ACQUISTIONS:

Via Trades/Waivers: Blanton, Eyre, Lee, Lidge, Bruntlett,. Dobbs, Francisco, Stairs.

Phillies Farm System Products: Bastardo, Hamels, Happ, Madson, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Utley.

Free Agents: Durbin, Martinez, Park, Bako, Cairo, Feliz, Ibanez, Werth.

Rule 5: Victorino.

ORIGINS

Drafted from North American high schools: Durbin (3^rd), Hamels (1^st), Madson (9^th), Rollins (2^nd), Victorino (9^th), Werth (1^st).

Drafted from junior colleges: Eyre (9^th), Ibanez (36^th)

Drafted from four-year colleges: Blanton (1^st); Happ (3^rd), Lee (4^th), Lidge (1^st), Bako (5^th), Bruntlett (9^th), Francisco (5^th), Howard (5^th), Utley (1^st)

Undrafted free agents from North America: Dobbs, Stairs

Latin Free Agents: Bastardo, Martinez, Cairo, Feliz, Ruiz

Asian Free Agents: Park

As you can see, the Phillies built their team through a variety of sources. Once the American League winner is determined, we'll analyze their roster and compare the two.

Rollins Thunder: Phillies 5, Dodgers 4

dajafi — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:28:10 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Jimmy Rollins congratulated Ryan Howard after the Big Piece mashed a first-inning home run. Not quite four hours later, he'd have a turn as the hero. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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With one picture-perfect swing on a Jonathan Broxton fastball, Jimmy Rollins put 8 2/3 innings of frustration for his team--and the better part of a full season for himself--in the rear-view mirror. Rollins' two-out, two-on double to the gap scored Eric Bruntlett and Carlos Ruiz with the tying and winning runs as the Phillies took a walkoff thriller against the Dodgers in Game Four of the NLCS and claimed a three games to one series lead.

Rollins threw the last knockout punch in a night of haymakers. Ryan Howard got things started in the bottom of the first against former teammate Randy Wolf, who had allowed just one home run to lefty hitters all season. Now he's allowed one in the playoffs: with Rollins on first, Howard tattooed a 3-1 fastball into the right-field seats to put the Phillies ahead 2-0. But Wolf settled in after that, retiring ten in a row and not surrendering another hit until the sixth.

Joe Blanton started strong as well, retiring the first ten Dodger hitters he faced. But with one out in the fourth, he walked Matt Kemp to give Los Angeles its first base runner. Andre Ethier followed with a deep flyout to dead center, but Manny Ramirez singled to put runners at the corners. James Loney did the same to cut the lead in half, and after a walk to Ronnie Belliard, Russell Martin singled to tie it. An inning later, Kemp came up with two outs and blasted a home run to center, over Shane Victorino climbing the wall. In the sixth, the Dodgers added another run as Ramirez reached on a Pedro Feliz error, Belliard moved him to second on a bloop single and Casey Blake, previously 1 for 25 in his career off Blanton, took a low pitch the opposite way for a single and a 4-2 advantage.

The Phils drew closer in the bottom of the sixth. Victorino tripled with one out, and Utley pulled a Wolf fastball into right for a single. After Howard walked, Joe Torre pulled Wolf for Ronald Belisario, who sawed off Jayson Werth for what looked like a 5-4-3 double-play ball before Belliard dropped it on the transfer; the Dodgers were awarded an out. Belisario then gave way to Hong-Chi Kuo. Raul Ibanez greeted him with a sinking liner to left--that Ramirez, of all people, caught just about the grass to preserve LA's lead.

Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson kept the Dodgers off the scoreboard for the next two innings. In the bottom of the eighth, the Phillies got two on with one out against George Sherrill, who hit Victorino with a pitch and walked Utley. But he recovered to strike out Howard for the second out. Broxton came in for Werth, flirting with triple digits on the fastball; after a six-pitch at-bat, he got Werth to fly out to right.

Scott Eyre started the ninth, but gave way to Brad Lidge with Rafael Furcal on first and one out. Lidge, showing perhaps his best stuff of the postseason, struck out both Kemp and Ethier, stranding what would have been a huge insurance run.

Broxton came back out after sitting through the long top of the ninth. He got Ibanez to ground out, but facing Matt Stairs--the man who beat him with a majestic two-run bomb to win Game Four of last year's NLCS--he issued a quick walk. Broxton's first pitch to Carlos Ruiz hit him, pushing Bruntlett, pinch-running for Stairs, into scoring position. Greg Dobbs, pinch-hitting for Lidge, lined softly to third.

That brought up Rollins, and the sort of indelibly wonderful moment that explains why so many of us are willing to sit through so many of the other kind.

After an off-day tomorrow, the Phils send Cole Hamels to the mound for Game Five, hoping he'll send them back to the World Series.

Baseball Remains The Focus As NLCS Begins

Eric Stephen — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 18:00:24 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

The Kid gets the call for Game 1.

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One of the beauties of baseball is the daily grind, the unending test of wills. Off days can be excruciating, as we wait for our beloved game to return. We don't want to hear about owners potentially getting divorced, we don't want to read a lazy column still clinging to a false premise. In short, we don't want to talk about baseball; we want to watch baseball.

Today, we get that chance.

Clayton Kershaw continues his ascension to the top of the heap, as he gets the Game 1 start. At 21 years, 209 days old, Kershaw is the second youngest Dodger to start a game one, trailing only Fernando Valenzuela, who was 20 years, 339 days old when he started Game 1 of the 1981 NLCS.

Cole Hamels, 2008 postseason hero for the Phillies, gets the start for the Phillies, looking to continue his dominance of the Dodgers. Including the playoffs, Hamels has made six career starts against the Dodgers, and I see a disturbing trend:

Date	Result	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
8/12/08	LA 4-3	7.0	5	2	2	2	7	2.57	1.000
8/23/08	Phi 9-2	7.0	5	2	2	0	5	2.57	0.714
NLCS Gm 1	Phi 3-2	7.0	6	2	2	2	8	2.57	1.129
NLCS Gm 5	Phi 5-1	7.0	5	1	1	3	5	1.29	1.129
5/14/09	LA 5-3	7.0	7	2	1	1	9	1.29	1.129
6/4/09	Phi 3-0	9.0	5	0	0	0	5	0.00	0.556
Totals	Phi 4-2	44.0	33	9	8	8	39	1.64	0.932

Yikes. In each of his six starts against the Dodgers, Hamels has pitched at least seven innings, and has never given up more than two runs. The good news for the Dodgers is that: (a) they won two of those six games, and (b) they have Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw has given up three runs in only three of his 17 home starts this season, allowing a total of just 22 runs. Kershaw put up a 1.89 ERA and a 2.69 FIP at Dodger Stadium in 2009 so far. In short, Game 1 figures to be a low scoring affair.

In roster news, the only change for the Dodgers from the NLDS to the NLCS is that Hiroki Kuroda is on the roster, replacing Jon Garland. Chad Billingsley has been moved to the bullpen. For the Phillies, Eric Bruntlett and Old Friend Chan Ho Park are replacing Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick, according to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News. Bruntlett (a Stanford alum) presumably was added to match the Dodgers' Brad Ausmus (Dartmouth) as the smart guy who can't hit.

[Update] - Scott Elbert made the NLCS roster over Jeff Weaver

Complete NLCS Roster:

Pitchers (11)	Infielders (8)	Outfielders (4)	Catchers (2)
Chad Billingsley, RHP	Casey Blake	Matt Kemp	Russell Martin
Clayton Kershaw, LHP	Orlando Hudson (S)	Juan Pierre (L)	Brad Ausmus
George Sherrill, LHP	Mark Loretta	Andre Ethier (L)
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP	James Loney (L)	Manny Ramirez
Hong-Chih Kuo, LHP	Juan Castro
Jonathan Broxton, RHP	Ronnie Belliard
Ramon Troncoso, RHP	Rafael Furcal (S)
Randy Wolf, LHP	Jim Thome (L)
Ronald Belisario, RHP
Scott Elbert, LHP
Vicente Padilla, RHP

Enough talk. It's time for baseball.

Game Time: 5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip "Fisted" Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game One Preview

NLDS Preview: Offense and Defense

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 21:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Throw a two-strike pitch out of the zone to Howard, and you'll probably get a strikeout.

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Welcome to Part 2 of 3 of the NLDS Preview, where I'll scout the Phillies in painstaking detail. RockiesMagicNumber will finish up the preview tonight or tomorrow morning with details on the pitching in the series.

The Bats: A

So you learned this morning that Citizens Bank Park, while a hitters park, is not nearly as big of an advantage as you might think. That in part is why I won't discredit the Phillies awesome offensive production, giving them their bats the lone A in the National League. Here are their rankings:

	Stat	NL Rank
Avg	.258	9th
Runs	820	1st
HR	224	1st
OBP	.334	8th
SLG	.447	1st
wOBA	.340	1st
OPS+	102	1st

Philadelphia's offensive numbers perfectly reflect their CBP's park factors. They are a home-run hitting team shy on singles. So either the park factor is right, the Phillies have fielded a team tailored to their park or a combination of the two. Either way, this is the best offense in the National League.

Let's look at Charlie Manuel's lineup, which is about as stable as you will find, as six players have played at least 155 games:

Player	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Jimmy Rollins - SS	.250	21	77	.296	.423	.316	85
Shane Victorino - CF	.292	10	62	.358	.445	.354	109
Chase Utley - 2B	.282	31	93	.397	.508	.402	135
Ryan Howard - 1B	.279	45	141	.360	.571	.393	139
Raul Ibanez - LF	.272	34	93	.347	.552	.379	130
Jayson Werth - RF	.268	36	99	.373	.506	.382	127
Pedro Feliz - 3B	.266	12	82	.308	.386	.302	80
Carlos Ruiz - C	.255	9	43	.355	.425	.337	103

A glance at the first five, and it's easy to understand why it would be such a big boost for Franklin Morales to get his head on straight.

Bench:*
IF: RH Eric Bruntlett (.171, 0, 7), RH Miguel Cairo (.267, 1, 2), LH Greg Dobbs (.247, 5, 20)
OF: RH Ben Francisco (.257, 15, 46), LH Matt Stairs (.194, 5, 17)
C: LH Paul Bako (.224, 3, 9)
*At the time of writing, playoff rosters had not yet been announced, so the bench composition is an educated guess.

The Gloves: A-

This Beyond the Boxscore article points to the Phillies as being the clearcut best NL playoff team defensively. Indeed, they rank 5th in MLB and 2nd in the NL in UZR/150, yet they have made 76 errors, second least in MLB.

Take the jump to a detailed look at Philadelphia's lineup.

LINEUP

1. Jimmy Rollins

#11 / Short Stop / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-8

Weight: 175

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 27, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jimmy Rollins	155	672	100	168	43	5	21	77	44	70	31	8	.250	.296	.423

Comment: Rollins followed his disappointing 2008 campaign with three straight sub-.700 OPS months in 2009. The low point was a .167/.206/.292 June. However, he turned it around in a big way in July, throwing a more familiar .313/.385/.539 July. Since that month, he has maintained a better level of play than the first half, but he has sloped off as the second half has worn on.

Strengths: In spite of his terrible average, J-Roll is still a legitimate power threat, is very difficult to strike out and is just two shy of the MLB lead in stolen bases among shortstops. He seems to have lost a little bit of range defensively, but he did make a career-low six errors at shortstop, and he is coming off of two straight gold gloves.

Weaknesses: Rollins is ill-suited for the leadoff role with that OBP below .300. Not surprisingly, he doesn't walk much. He hit just .230 as a RHB.

2. Shane Victorino

#8 / Center Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-9

Weight: 180

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 30, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Shane Victorino	156	620	102	181	39	13	10	62	60	71	25	8	.292	.358	.445

Comment: In some regards, Victorino had his best season of his career this year. He didn't deserve the All-Star selection he received, though he did himself well by having his best month in July. He faded down the stretch though, posting just a .650 OPS in Sept/Oct.

Strengths: According to Fangraphs, he has done more damage hitting fastballs than any NL OF sans Justin Upton. He doesn't steal a lot of bases, though he will be a threat to do so. Fangraphs doesn't like his defense, but he earned a Gold Glove last season, and this year's Fangraphs values are incongruent with recent years. He's a good fielder.

Weaknesses: He tends to struggle against finesse pitchers like Aaron Cook and can have issues hitting the change-up. Victorino is better from the left-side of the plate.

3. Chase Utley

#26 / Second Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Dec 17, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chase Utley	156	571	112	161	28	4	31	93	88	110	23	0	.282	.397	.508

Comment: Utley is no contest the best hitting second baseman in the game today, as he should collect his fourth consecutive Silver Slugger this year. He can thank Albert Pujols for robbing him of MVP Awards

Strengths: On top of all his ridiculous offensive numbers, he leads all NL 2B in fielding value. He has never had difficulty turning on fastballs, and he has shown the best plate discipline of his career, walking more and laying off pitches outside of the zone more. He actually performs slightly better against left-handed pitchers too. Note: this would be a good place to bring in your better RH reliever over playing the platoon splits.

Weaknesses: Is he tired? His.193/.290/.325 line since September 1 is truly pitcher-like. For some reason, he seems to have difficulty hitting in a count with three balls.

4. Ryan Howard

#6 / First Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-4

Weight: 260

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Nov 19, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ryan Howard	160	616	105	172	37	4	45	141	75	186	8	1	.279	.360	.571

Comment: Ryan Howard is a scary man to see digging into the batter's box. He had a solid second half and finished the regular season strong, posting a .303 average even since September 1.

Strengths: The imposing run producer finished the year 3rd in MLB in HR, 1st in RBI and 5th in slugging percentage. He is just an elite slugger who can change a whole game and series by seeing one bad pitch. Despite his giant frame, he has managed to be a decent defensive first baseman.

Weaknesses: As we all know, Howard is prone to the strikeout. He has cut his K-rate to a career low, but it's still over 30%. Howard has struck out in half his PA's that have reached two strikes, in part due to the fact that he is the worst hitter in the league at making contact on pitches out of the zone. He also exhibits a nasty platoon split, hitting just .207/.298/.365 against LHP.

5. Raul Ibanez

#29 / Left Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-2

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Jun 02, 1972

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Raul Ibanez	134	500	93	136	32	3	34	93	56	119	4	0	.272	.347	.552

Comment: Ibanez made me look like a genius in May when he helped put my fantasy team at the forefront of my division. He had a stellar All-Star first half, when he hit .309/.367/.649. However, he came down to earth in a big way in the second half, hitting a paltry .232/.326/.448.

Strengths: The veteran actually hits left-handers better than right-handers, so ignore the platoon splits here too. He has positive values against every pitch he's seen, so there's not one pitch that can get him out. Even with his second half struggles, he's sixth among NL outfielders in runs created.

Weaknesses: Maybe it's the short porch, but the former Mariner has graded out well defensively from UZR after years of being one of the worst defensive outfielders in the game. He'll go fishing on about a quarter of the pitches outside the zone, only making contact with half of them, which might explain his suddenly high K rate.

6. Jayson Werth

#28 / Right Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-5

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 20, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jayson Werth	159	571	98	153	26	1	36	99	91	156	20	3	.268	.373	.506

Comment: It's hard to believe Ned Coletti DFA'd this All-Star just three years ago. It may seem like he has come out of nowhere, but really, the increase in production has only come with more at-bats. His rate stats have been in this vicinity for years.

Strengths: His power has been very consistent, knocking seven dingers in each of the last four months, six in the one prior. He trails only Adam Dunn and Ryan Braun in wRAA among NL outfielders, and while his season has been uninspiring on the defensive side statistically, he is regarded as a very solid defensive outfielder. He even has 20 stolen bases.

Weaknesses: He has a decent walk rate, but a 27.2% K rate is still a little too high. Werth struggles most against RHP and power pitchers, so Ubaldo will hold the edge over him in Game 1. He leans pretty heavily to being a pull hitter - only four home runs have gone opposite field and he's hitting just .257 when going the other way.

7. Pedro Feliz

#7 / Third Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 27, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Pedro Feliz	158	580	62	154	30	2	12	82	35	68	0	1	.266	.308	.386

Comment: Feliz is one of those hitters Rockies fans think is a lot better than he is - like Fred Lewis - due to head-to-head matchups. Among all MLB third basemen, only Emilio Bonifacio had a worse wOBA. He may see purple pinstripes and go all Hulk on us, but he's not a real threat.

Strengths: The Phillies 3B doesn't strike out much. His UZR has gone down quite a bit since joining Philly, but he's still a solid defensive third baseman. 12 HR and 82 RBI is very strong for a 7-hole hitter.

Weaknesses: Feliz struggles with anything offspeed, though it's not as if he has really punished fastballs either. Only 11 NL hitters swing at more pitches out of the zone (Barmes is one of them), one of the reasons he is one of the worst NL hitters at drawing walks. He has limped to the finish, hitting in the .225 range over the last two months.

8. Carlos Ruiz

#51 / Catcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-10

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 22, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Carlos Ruiz	107	322	32	82	26	1	9	43	47	39	3	2	.255	.355	.425

Comment: Ruiz has improved dramatically with the bat from last year, moving from liabilty to unquestionable asset at the bottom of the lineup.

Strengths: Only one NL catcher strikes out less and only one walks more than Ruiz, who grades out as an above average MLB hitter regardless of defensive position despite a .266 BABIP. His 27% caught stealing percentage is solid, and he has committed just 3 errors, the least of any MLB catcher with 800+ innings logged. He has a decent amount of thump as well - his SLG% is just 15 points behind that of Clint Barmes.

Weaknesses: He struggles mostly against groundball pitchers, which bodes well for the Rockies, the best groundball staff in the business. Most of his offensive success comes at CBP - his road splits are .203/.296/.314

Through the Motions: Astros 5, Phillies 3

dajafi — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:51:40 -0000

It would be inaccurate to describe tonight's Phillies game against the Houston Astros as totally inconsequential: playoff seeding is still at stake, and with the Cardinals' 13-0 win earlier today, the Phils are just a game up on St. Louis in the battle for home field advantage in the first round and possibly the league championship series. But after emotional wins the previous two nights culminating in Wednesday's celebration of a third straight division championship, things inevitably felt a bit pro forma. The fact of Eric Bruntlett batting second didn't help, both in terms of investing the game with meaning or contributing to the Phillies winning said game.

Cliff Lee made his last start before a likely Game One bow, and sandwiched four mostly excellent innings between two bad ones. He surrendered a two-run double to Lance Berkman in the first inning, and a two-run homer to Miguel Tejada in the sixth, plus two more hits before giving way to Clay Condrey. Lee did strike out six, and his departure after 89 pitches on top of the 226 innings he'd thrown this season before tonight's game suggested that Charlie Manuel's major concern was getting his star lefty through the evening intact. Brett Myers made his return to action in the seventh, allowing three hits and a run; Tyler Walker and Sergio Escalona, both on the bubble for a playoff roster spot, finished with a clean inning each.

Offensively, Ben Francisco starred filling in for Shane Victorino with three hits, including two doubles, and a walk; Bruntlett, in for Chase Utley, didn't fare as well with an 0 for 5 performance and a disproportionate share in the team's 13 men left on base. Jayson Werth and Pedro Feliz each had two hits; presumably they'll both get an off-day or two this weekend, as might Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez, who played tonight as well.

The split of this four-game series gave Houston six wins in eight tries against the Phillies this season, as the Astros continued their baffling dominance of recent years. Hopefully this will be of some consolation next week when they're watching the playoffs at home.