SB Nation - Brad Ausmus

Friday Dodger Notes: Kershaw Solid, Chapman the Real Deal

Eric Stephen — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 23:13:22 -0000

When Clayton Kershaw exhales, fastballs are known to have 3-5 mph more velocity

Here are some notes from Dodgertown, after today's game, a 3-2 loss to Cincinnati:

Clayton Kershaw gave up a pair of hits and a pair of walks in his three scoreless innings of work, striking out three
Aroldis Chapman gave up only two infield singles in his two innings of work, striking out two batters. Jon Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that Chapman had this pitch speed sequence to Matt Kemp, which resulted in a strikeout on a slider: 100, 85, 99, 87, 83, 97, 90. I can't wait to watch the video later tonight.
Angelo Songco, the Dodgers' fourth round pick last year out of Loyola Marymount, had an RBI double in the ninth inning which produced the Dodgers' first run of the game
Ivan DeJesus, making his first "A" game start of the spring, had two hits in his two at-bats (though he was also caught stealing in what looked to be a missed sign)
Jason Repko made a great throw from left field, on the fly to catcher Brad Ausmus, to nail Jay Bruce, who was trying to score from second base on a single in the first inning
Third base coach Larry Bowa left in the middle of the game and was taken to the emergency room because of stomach cramps, says Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times.
Don Mattingly, on Doug Mientkiewicz, who made his third straight start at first base: "He was fine. We were worried about him throwing, it looks like he can make that throw ok. He loves being out there."
Tom Singer of MLB.com profiled Garret Anderson, set to make his spring debut Sunday. Anderson sounds happy to be near home:

"There are 30 teams out there, and to get a chance to play at home is definitely a blessing. I grew up in a community 20 minutes away from Dodger Stadium. I watched games there growing up. When you get to a place like that, it's special; it takes you back to your childhood."

Of Anderson, Mattingly said the Dodgers "first priority will be getting him in the outfield and getting at-bats. If he wants to work out at first, we'll take a look."
The Dodgers signed 27-year old left-handed pitcher Sean Thompson to a minor league contract, per Our Sports Central. Thompson pitched independent league baseball the past two years after six year in the minor league systems of the Padres, Royals, and Rockies.
Charley Steiner still can't pronounce the last name of Carlos Monasterios, adding an extra t to make it "Montasterios."
Follow Ramona Shelburne's travelogue of the Dodgers' trip to Taiwan on ESPN L.A.
We will have a game thread for the second game of the Taiwan series, which starts tonight at 10pm.

Box Score

Drafting the Astros Dynasty

David Coleman — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:00:28 -0000

*Note: I know you are ready for the Friday Astros Minor Thoughts to return. Hold off for one more week. This story is about the minors and the draft, but it's bigger than the normal Thoughts. So you've got that going for you. Which is nice.

A throwaway comment by Evan the other day gave me a great idea for a story. The Astros glory years were from 1997-2005. That's when they made the playoffs six times in nine years. But, how were those teams built. Everyone harps on how bad the Astros farm system is now, but was it correspondingly good leading up to that dynastic period?

More importantly, how much did a well-perceived system help them win during that time frame? Was it sustained drafting excellence that carried the day, or was it one or two big scores? Obviously, our topics lately have veered into supporting Houston General Manager Ed Wade against all manner of outside opinions. Most observers are skeptical of the strength or effect the past two (pretty strong) drafts will have on the Astros going forward. So, I wanted to both see what caused the Astros success in the late 90's and if the pattern could be duplicated in 2010 and beyond.

In doing my research, I found 54 players who made the major leagues after being drafted by the Astros between 1992 and 2002. I stopped in 2002 because that seemed to be the last season where players would have a realistic chance of impacting the big league club by 2005.

54 players fit this criteria, both playing in the major leagues and being drafted from 1992 to 2002. Of this group, only 35 played even a single game with Houston. Fifteen were traded, including six who never appeared as Astros, including first round picks Ramon Castro and Mark Johnson. Both, incidentally, were traded to Florida.

For all intents and purposes, we can break up this dynasty into two sections. The first is 1997-2000, when the Astros made the playoffs three times in four years. Then, we have the 2001-2005 section, when the Astros won their first-ever playoff series and made the World Series in back-to-back years.

During that first section, six players who went on to play at least 20 games with the Astros made their debut. That number does include Morgan Ensberg, however, who didn't receive significant playing time until 2002. Of those players, Scott Elarton, Wade Miller, Lance Berkman and Julio Lugo made significant impacts. Russ Johnson, Tony McKnight, Keith Ginter, Ramon Castro and John Halama were all traded during this period.

That last sentence is important. Under Gerry Hunsicker, the Houston farm system wasn't always highly rated, but it was productive enough to swing big-time deals. Castro brought back Jay Powell, who was the primary setup man during the 1999 playoff run. Halama was part of the package that picked up Randy Johnson, while McKnight brought in closer Mike Williams, a key member of the bullpen in 2001.

What these years (and the previous drafts) lacked in impact, they made up for in trade value. Oddly enough, though, none of the drafted players the Astros gave up during this period went on to be a star. The closest is probably Ramon Castro, who played in 507 games at catcher. Of course, some of the international signees like Carlos Guillen and Freddy Garcia brought back more value for Seattle. On the balance, though, the Astros did very well by these trades.

In fact, these trades helped offset the lack of an impact player from the 1992-1995 drafts. The closest thing the Astros got during this time period was Billy Wagner. While Scott Elarton, Chris Holt and Julio Lugo all played big roles in short bursts, they didn't play for long. Elarton was a reliever for two seasons before having a great 2000 campaign. He promptly hurt his arm and was never the same for Houston. Holt was traded to Detroit after two okay seasons in the rotation for the second coming of Brad Ausmus. Lugo was a good player at short, but played on just one playoff team (2001) before being cut.

The real core of the later Astros teams were formed in the 1996, 1997 and 1998 drafts. Those three saw Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Tim Redding, Morgan Ensberg and Brad Lidge. Those three drafts also produced the aforementioned Mark Johnson, who was integral to the Moises Alou trade, Ginter (traded for Mark Loretta) and John Buck, who was one of the keys to the Carlos Beltran deal in 2004.

Of the Astros who played in over 100 games, only Oswalt, Berkman and Ensberg posted double-digit wins from 2002 through 2005. While Miller's best seasons may have scored highly on the WAR list, they didn't track that particular stat until 2002. Jason Lane also was high on this list, but had pitiful WAR numbers and never really had that one great season. Ensberg, on the other hand, posted more than five wins twice and carried the 2005 team until his hand injury.

There were certainly players drafted in the meantime that contributed. Lane, Chris Burke, Chad Qualls and even a guy like Kirk Saarloos had their roles. What was lacking in their performance was an impact on the Astros playoff chances. It's also clear that the Astros never really set out to build through the draft in this period. They lucked into some late round pitchers like Miller and Oswalt. They also made astute trades to supplement the core of the team built during the late 80's (Biggio. Gonzo, Harnish, Finley, Bagwell). That's how the Astros won in the first section, right down to the Alou, Johnson and Powell trades.

On the other hand, as the calendar flipped to the 21st century, the Astros relied more on homegrown players drafted under Hunsicker. While he did make big acquisitions (Kent, Clemens, Beltran, Pettitte), the real thing that hurt the Astros was the perception that they didn't have enough players to make trades. By going through free agency to sign guys like Kent and Pettitte, the Astros lost valuable draft picks. This led to the idea that the system was crummy and meant that they couldn't make impact trades any more. Look at the guys the Astros traded away again. Where are the serviceable players? Hunsicker did all that with smoke and mirrors.

The other positive thing to take away from this study is that Ed Wade and Bobby Heck could be setting the Astros up for big-time succcess again with this draft. A third straight impact-type draft could set up a situation where the Astros are contenders again and very soon. Like by 2014 soon. That may seem like a long time, because it is. I'd still rather another period of sustained success like we saw back then than what Houston looks like now.

Spring Training Battle: Lefty on the Bench

Eric Stephen — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 16:00:33 -0000

More photos » Jeff Chiu - AP

Both Blake DeWitt (left) and Doug Mientkiewicz (right) will battle for roster spots this spring.

Browse more photos »

With pitchers & catchers scheduled to report to the cool side of Camelback Ranch on Saturday, spring training is just around the corner. The Dodgers have a few battles ahead of them, but for today I will concentrate on the bench, specifically the primary left-handed pinch hitter.

I'm going to make a few assumptions regarding the bench, namely that three spots are already etched in stone:

Brad Ausmus, backup catcher
Reed Johnson, fourth outfielder
Jamey Carroll, backup second and third baseman

The battle for starting second baseman is between Ronnie Belliard, Blake DeWitt, and a scale, as Belliard's contract becomes guaranteed if he weighs in at 209 pounds or less at any point during spring training. I believe Carroll was signed to be the backup at second and third, starting occasionally at both positions. Carroll's role would have been the same whether DeWitt or Belliard was the starter. Much like last year with Orlando Hudson, the market for second baseman tanked and as the winter dragged on Belliard drew closer and closer to the Dodgers' price range.

If general manager Ned Colletti has established any type of trend in roster building, it's that he prefers veterans for bench roles, with the theory that the development of younger players would be better served by playing everyday in the minors rather that playing sporadically in the majors and sitting on the bench most of the time. Thus, even though the 24-year old DeWitt bats left-handed, I don't consider him a candidate for a bench role. He will likely either win the second base job or get the DeWitt Discount on yet another flight to Albuquerque.

Xavier Paul is the only other player on the 40-man roster that fits the bill as a potential left-handed pinch hitter, and he also provides flexibility with the ability to play all three outfield spots. However, he is much more likely to spend his age 25 season playing everyday in Triple A, for the reasons noted above.

Of the 14 non-roster batters, there are two switch hitters: JD Closser and Alfredo Amezaga. I don't even want to know all the dominoes that would have to fall for Closser to fill this bench role; if anything his shot of making the big league roster is as backup catcher, which would require a few injuries as well. Amezaga has hit better from the left side in his career, but his .687 OPS from that side isn't likely to win him this role. Amezaga, who is recovering from micro-fracture surgery on his left knee, is more likely to make the club as the backup shortstop (and occasional outfielder) than as the primary lefty pinch hitter.

That leaves us with two likely veteran options: Doug Mientkiewicz and Brian Giles. Here is a quick look at their stats against right-handed pitchers over the last three years:

Doug Mientkiewicz					Age: 36
Year	PA	2B	HR	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	wRC+
2007	159	11	5	.286/.351/.471	.822	118
2008	281	14	2	.283/.384/.376	.760	109
2009	17	1	0	.333/.412/.400	.812	129

Brian Giles					Age: 39
Year	PA	2B	HR	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	wRC+
2007	367	19	11	.286/.368/.458	.826	126
2008	424	29	11	.309/.399/.485	.883	146
2009	165	8	2	.221/.309/.321	.630	79
Thanks to Baseball-Reference & FanGraphs

Both missed significant time last season with injuries. Mientkiewicz separated his shoulder stretching a single into a double in April, and didn't come back until September. Giles has an arthritic right knee and he didn't play after June 18 last season. Mientkiewicz might have some sort of advantage as the incumbent, and ordinarily I would credit him for having defensive versatility, but I'm not sure this bench role will require much glove work. Mientkiewicz also has more experience coming off the bench, with 107 career pinch hitting plate appearances versus 57 for Giles.

Giles has the benefit of having the more potent bat, specifically in the power department. He has been hampered by Petco Park, and has an ISO (isolated power) of .168 on the road over the last three years, versus just .100 in San Diego. Over that same period, Giles hit a home run every 35.8 plate appearances on the road versus one every 117.8 PA at home. The Dodgers haven't had a real power threat off the bench since Olmedo Saenz (although Wilson Betemit had a nice run in 2007), so the allure of a healthy Giles might be too strong to ignore.

This spot pretty much comes down to health. If Giles is healthy, he will hit, and he'll win the job. If not, Mientkiewicz likely will get the role, at least for as long as he remembers to slide feet first.

Dodgers Leaning Right Toward Reed Johnson

Eric Stephen — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 22:28:58 -0000

The Dodgers quest to sign a veteran fourth outfielder might be near an end, as they are close to signing Reed Johnson (reported by both Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times). The 33-year old Johnson, who hit .287/.348/.418 in two seasons with the Cubs, set himself apart from the other three outfielders on the club's radar (as reported by Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles yesterday). Unlike Garret Anderson, Brian Giles, and Gabe Gross, Johnson bats right-handed and has more recent experience in center field.

Of course, just how good Johnson is in center might be up for debate, but at the very least he is fine on the corners. Looking at UZR (via Fangraphs) Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA, via Baseball Prospectus), and Plus/Minus (via Bill James Online), here is how Johnson fared at all three outfield spots the last few years:

	Left Field				Center Field				Right Field
Year	Inn	UZR	FRAA	+/-	Inn	UZR	FRAA	+/-	Inn	UZR	FRAA	+/-
2007	503.0	+1.6	-1	+2	8.0	-0.7	-1	0	71.2	-1.1	0	+2
2008	124.2	+4.5	+6	+2	563.2	-5.0	-2	-11	23.1	+0.2	0	+2
2009	25.0	-0.7	0	-1	305.1	-0.3	-1	+2	37.0	-0.3	0	0
Totals	652.2	+5.4	+5	+3	877.0	-6.0	-4	-9	132.0	-1.2	0	+4

Manny Ramirez left 33 of his 99 starts last year before the game was done, while Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier were first and fourth, respectively, in the National League in defensive innings in the outfield. That Johnson appears to be at his best defensively in left field, the position he figures to play the most, is a good sign.

Also, Johnson can hit lefties. In his career, Johnson has hit .313/.378/.463 against southpaws, including an OPS of .848 or higher in each of the past four seasons. Against right handers, Johnson has hit just .265/.324/.383 in his career. Johnson is a good option to have in reserve in case Andre Ethier (.252/.317/.383 career against lefties) needs to take a day off.

I'm not sure what number Johnson will wear with the Dodgers (he wore #9 with the Cubs, after wearing #3 and #37 with Toronto), but he might just wear a target instead. Since beginning in his career in 2003, Johnson has been hit by pitches more often than just about anybody:

Fewest PA per HBP 2003-2009 (min 1,000 PA)
Player	PA	HBP	PA/HBP
Jason LaRue	2030	78	26.03
Carlos Quentin	1422	54	26.33
Craig Wilson	1704	62	27.48
Reed Johnson	2862	98	29.20

Johnson was born in Riverside and graduated from Temecula Valley High School. He played collegiate baseball at Cal State Fullerton, and set the Titans' single-season record for runs scored, with 101 in 1999. Plus, the man knows what to do with a bat in his hand:

Both CHONE the 2010 Bill James Handbook seem to agree on Johnson's offensive projection for 2010:

Bill James: .272/.336/.395
CHONE: .268/.335/.384

The Dodgers' 40-man roster would be full with Reed Johnson in the fold, although with two Rule 5 guys (Carlos Monasterios and Armando Zerpa) and two pitchers out of options (Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger), there is still some roster flexibility if needed. As it stands now, the bench would be decidedly right handed:

outfielder Reed Johnson
catcher Brad Ausmus
one or both of Jamey Carroll and Ronnie Belliard
possibly backup shortstops Angel Berroa, Nick Green, or Chin-Lung Hu

So don't be surprised if the left-handed Doug Mientkiewicz makes way onto the 25-man roster come opening day.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

Kyle Lobner — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 15:31:56 -0000

Some things to read while needing to say something.

The race for the final spot on the bench added one more contestant on Wednesday, as the Brewers claimed "Voodoo" Joe Inglett off waivers from the Rangers (FanShot), and designated Chris Smith for assignment to make room on the roster. Inglett is 31 years old and a career .293/.349/.396 hitter, having appeared in 211 games over the last four seasons. He also hit .360/.422/.516 in 40 games in AAA last season.

Between Toronto and Las Vegas last season, Inglett played all three outfield spots, second base and shortstop. With that said, his career numbers would suggest he's more of an "emergency backup" at short and in center field, and less of a "viable option." Inglett will join Hernan Iribarren, Adam Heether and possibly Luis Cruz in the battle for the last infield spot. His skill set seems pretty similar to Iribarren's, and to Frank Calanotto's, for that matter. Adam McCalvy has some notes regarding Inglett's history at Miller Park and the origin of his nickname.

Speaking of Catalanotto, Doug Melvin says he's still working on one more minor league deal, and don't be surprised if Catalanotto gets the call and an opportunity to win the fifth spot in the outfield. Just a hunch.

The decision to DFA Chris Smith, meanwhile, is a curious one. There's a pretty good chance Smith will pass through waivers and accept an assignment to the minors, but there are certainly others on the 40 man roster (Luis Cruz or Tim Dillard) that would have been more likely to go unnoticed. Nearly all of my recent roster projections had Smith making the team if David Riske opened the season on the DL: Dumping Smith might open a roster spot for Jeff Suppan to waste some space in the bullpen to open the season. Or, on the positive side, it might give a guy like Chuck Lofgren or Chris Narveson a better shot at making the team.

Elsewhere in transaction minutiae:

Adam McCalvy has the details on the incentives in Dave Bush's new deal: Bush can earn $25,000, $25,000, $30,000 and $30,000 for pitching 170, 180, 195 and 205 innings, respectively. Before last season, Bush had pitched at least 185 innings for three straight seasons, including a career high 210 in 2006.
McCalvy also has Mat Gamel's 2010 contract. He'll earn $406,500 if he manages to spend the full season in the majors.

We're 23 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training and Rick Peterson getting his first chance to wave his magic wand over the Brewer pitching staff. Right Field Bleachers has a recap of Peterson's recent appearance on WSSP, and he doesn't seem to be shying away from high expectations.

Here's a quick sample of what he's up against: The Brewers allowed five or more runs in seven straight games at one point last June, tying them for the fifth longest streak in baseball. Somehow, they won three of those seven games anyway. By the way, that streak is nowhere near the franchise record: The 2002 Brewers did it in twelve straight.

Also at the B-Ref blog, they have a look at the last six active position players born in the 1960's. Four of them (Brad Ausmus, Ken Griffey, Matt Stairs and Omar Vizquel) are under contract for 2010. Sixteen pitchers born in the 1960's pitched in the majors last season, including Trevor Hoffman and David Weathers.

Brian Anderson is starting to get excited for spring. If you'd like to share in his excitement, he'll be chatting with fans tomorrow morning.

In the minors:

Jonathan Mayo unveiled his top 50 prospects last night on MLB Network, with Alcides Escobar 12th and Brett Lawrie 26th. If you missed it live, you can see video highlights of the top 50 at MLB.com.
Also at his blog, Mayo unveiled Seth Speaks' top 20 prospects. The list doesn't include any Brewers.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Avoided arbitration with pitcher Sean Marshall, who will earn $950,000 in 2010.
Orioles: Designated reliever Dennis Sarfate for assignment.
Reds: Signed infielder Miguel Cairo to a minor league deal.
Rockies: Signed pitcher Tim Redding to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
Yankees: Signed Randy Winn to a one year, $2 million deal.

I have three Ben Sheets notes today:

The Wausau Daily Herald has a look at photos of Ben Sheets from his last season as a Brewer. They did a nice job of capturing all aspects of Sheets' game: throwing pitches, celebrating success, looking like he's never held a bat before, and meeting with trainers (h/t Keep Turning Up the Heat!).
Geoff Young of The Hardball Times lists Sheets' 2004 season as one of the unluckiest of all time.
View From Bernie's Chalet thanks Sheets for the memories.

Here's a great contract incentive note: As noted in the comments of yesterday's Mug, Ronnie Belliard's new deal with the Dodgers is only guaranteed if he weighs in at or under 209 lbs sometime during spring training. Belliard reportedly weighed 209 at the end of the season.

In response to the ongoing complaints about Jason Kendall's consistent playing time over the last two seasons, we've heard a lot about catchers who "call a good game," and viewed much of it as nonsense. With that said, Lookout Landing has an interesting post that draws an important distinction: Differences in game calling ability aren't necessarily nonexistent, they're just very difficult to quantify.

He's been retired for decades, but not forgotten. Gorman Thomas was one of the early additions to Rowland's Office's BMF team.

On this day in 1993 the Brewers signed veteran outfielder Tom Brunansky. He would appear in 96 games as a Brewer over parts of the next two seasons, hitting .187/.263/.317 before being traded to the Red Sox for catcher Dave Valle. The fact that Brunansky isn't commonly mentioned as one of Sal Bando's worst moves should tell you something about how bad his other moves were.

Happy birthday today to:

2008-2009 Nashville Sound Brendan Katin, who turns 27.
2004-2005 Brewer Lyle Overbay, who turns 33.
Fellow 2004-2005 Brewer Junior Spivey, who turns 35.

Oh, and as if we needed them, here are five more ways to eat cheese curds.

Drink up.

An Updated Look At Dodger Contract Incentives

Eric Stephen — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 17:24:23 -0000

I was a bit premature over the weekend with my summary of Dodger contract incentives. Yesterday's signings of Ronnie Belliard and Brad Ausmus added two more players with bonuses written into their contracts, meaning that 13 of the 17 Dodgers currently under contract for 2010 have some type of incentives. Of course, Belliard might have the biggest incentive of all -- his $825,000 base salary is not guaranteed, but will become guaranteed if he reports at 209 pounds at any point during spring training. Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times reported on the reasoning behind the choosing of the very specific weight of 209 pounds:

The Dodgers want Belliard get down to 209 pounds because that was how much he weighed at the end of last season, when he played a surprisingly significant part in the their run to the National League Championship Series.

To date there has been no word that Belliard also has to wear the same underwear and socks as last September and October, nor has it been reported that he must also always carry his lucky rabbit's foot with him at all times.

Like Belliard, Brad Ausmus also has incentives written into his contract based on plate appearances. For Ausmus, he can earn up to $100,000 in both this year and next, should his mutual option be exercised. There is a very low likelihood that all of the Dodger incentives will be reached. For instance, there simply aren't enough plate appearances to go around for Belliard and Jamey Carroll to each get 550 plate appearances, the maximum bonus point in their respective contracts. Likewise, I doubt both Martin and Ausmus will maximize their incentives. Here is an updated summary of all the incentives for the Dodgers (also updated on the payroll worksheet):

Player	2010	2011
Furcal	$1,000,000	$1,000,000
Carroll	$525,000	$525,000
Blake	$500,000	$500,000
Padilla	$250,000	$750,000
Belliard	$250,000
Kuo	$150,000
Sherrill	$150,000
Repko	$137,500
Ethier	$125,000	$250,000
Ausmus	$100,000	$100,000
Martin	$100,000
Broxton		$500,000
Kemp		$300,000
Totals	$3,287,500	$3,925,000

Here are the incentive details for each player (which can also be found on the payroll worksheet):

Rafael Furcal

Has a bonus of up to $1 million annually if he participates in a conditioning program to keep his back healthy, although I am unsure of the exact details of the requirements of the program.

Casey Blake

Annually (2009-2011)
$125,000 for 525 PA
$125,000 for 550 PA
$125,000 for 575 PA
$125,000 for 600 PA

Jamey Carroll

Annually (2010-2011)
$25,000 for 275 PA
$50,000 for 300 PA
$50,000 for 350 PA
$75,000 for 400 PA
$75,000 for 450 PA
$125,000 for 500 PA
$125,000 for 550 PA

Vicente Padilla

$125,000 for 150 innings pitched
$125,000 for 160 IP
$150,000 for 170 IP
$175,000 for 180 IP
$200,000 for 190 IP
$225,000 for 200 IP

The final $750,000 of Padilla's $1 million in incentives is deferred until April 1, 2011.

Ronnie Belliard

$50,000 for 350 plate appearances
$50,000 for 400 PA
$50,000 for 450 PA
$50,000 for 500 PA
$50,000 for 550 PA

Hong-Chih Kuo

$25,000 for 55 games pitched
$25,000 for 60 G
$50,000 for 65 G
$50,000 for 70 G

George Sherrill

$75,000 for 60 games pitched
$75,000 for 70 G

Jason Repko

$12,500 for 100 PA
$25,000 for 150 PA
$25,000 for 200 PA
$25,000 for 250 PA
$25,000 for 300 PA
$25,000 for 350 PA

Andre Ethier

Annually (2010-2011)
$25,000 for 600 PA
$50,000 for 650 PA
$50,000 for 675 PA

Achieving those incentives in 2010 will also add those amounts to Ethier's 2011 base salary

Brad Ausmus

Annually (2010-2011; 2011 if option is exercised)
$25,000 for 150 PA
$25,000 for 175 PA
$25,000 for 200 PA
$25,000 for 225 PA

Russell Martin

$50,000 for 550 PA
$50,000 for 600 PA

Jonathan Broxton

$500,000 for 68 games finished or 1st place in Rolaids Relief Man standings
$400,000 for 64 games finished or 2nd place in Rolaids Relief Man standings
$300,000 for 60 games finished or 3rd place in Rolaids Relief Man standings
$200,000 for 56 games finished or 4th place in Rolaids Relief Man standings
$100,000 for 53 games finished or 5th place in Rolaids Relief Man standings

If Broxton achieves one of these non-cumulative incentives in 2010, it will be added to his 2011 salary.

Matt Kemp

$50,000 for 600 PA
$100,000 for 650 PA
$150,000 for 675 PA

Any incentives reached by Kemp in 2010 will add to his 2011 salary.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Kyle Lobner — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 15:38:32 -0000

Some things to read while plotting your escape.

And we're down to one: The Brewers came to terms yesterday with Carlos Villanueva on a one year, $950,000 deal, avoiding arbitration (FanShot). The deal is $12,500 above the midpoint between Villanueva and the team's requests, and in line with deals given to Zach Miner and Robinson Tejada, who are both in similar situations.

The Brewers have pushed through most of their arbitration contracts pretty quickly, but it doesn't sound like they expect to have similar luck with Corey Hart. The two sides were $650,000 apart in their contract offers, and Gord Ash said "It's looking more and more like that one's going to a hearing" in the link above. Hart is requesting $4.8 million.

Meanwhile, Doug Melvin isn't done working on the roster for 2010. He told Tom Haudricourt he's "working on one other thing," and that it "would be a minor league deal." (FanShot) That prompted Haudricourt to speculate about some outfielders who are still on the market. As things stand right now, the Brewers will have seven outfielders in camp: Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart, Jody Gerut, Trent Oeltjen, Lorenzo Cain and Adam Stern. Recent signee Norris Hopper has yet to receive an invite.

Speaking of Braun, he was a guest yesterday on Jim Rome's show on ESPN, and seemed happy with the direction the team has taken this offseason. Right Field Bleachers has the video, and if you're somewhere where you can't watch it Tom Haudricourt has some quotes.

Adam McCalvy cleaned out the Inbox yesterday: Follow the link for his thoughts on the starting rotation, Manny Parra, Eric Arnett, Mat Gamel in the outfield, keeping a winning minor league team together, and anniversary celebrations.

In the minors:

MLB FanHouse ranked the Brewers ninth in their Farm System Rankings.
Burke Granger at Prospect Junkies is the latest guest ranker at Jonathan Mayo's blog, and he has Alcides Escobar as baseball's 17th best prospect. Mayo's list will be revealed on MLB Network at 7 pm tonight.
Closer Jim Henderson, who split 2009 between Wisconsin, Brevard County, Huntsville and the Canadian World Cup team, is the subject of this week's Interrogation Room.

With spring training just a few weeks away, I guess we're getting close to prediction season: Mighty Casey thinks the Brewers will win 88 games and compete in the Central.

Here's two statistical nuggets that I found interesting but didn't know what to do with:

The Brewers played 63 consecutive games (from April 19-June 27) in 2009 without getting shut out, tied for the fifth longest streak in baseball last season.
Walk Like a Sabermetrician notes that they went 20-23 (.465) in one run games, 44-35 (.557) in games decided by 2-4 runs, and 16-24 (.400) in games decided by five runs or more.

Around baseball:

Athletics: Signed Ben Sheets to a one year deal worth $10 million (FanShot).
Cardinals: Signed Rich Hill to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
Cubs: Signed Xavier Nady to a one year deal worth $3.3 million, and also signed Chad Tracy to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Re-signed Brad Ausmus to a one year deal worth $1 million and re-signed Ronnie Belliard to a one year deal worth $825,000.
Orioles: Signed Miguel Tejada to a one year deal.
Padres: Signed Jon Garland to a one year deal worth $5.3 million, with an option for 2010 and designated reliever Mike Ekstrom for assignment.
Rangers: Avoided arbitration with Frank Francisco, who will earn $3.265 million in 2010.
Red Sox: Avoided arbitration with Jeremy Hermida, who will earn $3.345 million in 2010.
Twins: Signed Jim Thome to a one year deal worth $1.5 million.
Yankees: Acquired outfielder Greg Golson from the Rangers for a minor leaguer and cash.

The stove is getting so hot, it's even lukewarm over where Derrick Turnbow is standing. Yesterday I mentioned that the Rockies have expressed interest in him. Jerry Crasnick is reporting the Diamondbacks are interested too.

It's time for today's episode of "It Could Be Worse: You Could Be A Royals Fan:" Rany Jazayerli notes that ESPN will have a Royals game on Sunday Night Baseball in July, marking the first Royals Sunday Night game in fourteen years.

On this day in 1999, the Brewers signed pitcher Jim Abbott. Born without a right hand, Abbott's major league career was inspirational, but his time in Milwaukee was less so: Abbott went 2-8 with a 6.91 in 20 outings before being released in July.

Happy birthday today to:

1986-1991 Brewer manager Tom Trebelhorn, who turns 62.
2003 Brewer Jason Conti, who turns 35.

Oh, and today is a Woot-off day.

Drink up.

Pondering the Astros All Decade (All-Aughts?) Team

Stephen Higdon — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 21:18:29 -0000

There are few things that matter less than constructing an all decade team. There are a also few things to write about the Astros. Rock, meet hard place. This where I feel like I am in terms of writing things about the Astros this week. Thankfully for me (and by proxy, you...I hope) the closing of the Aughts(?) allows for speculation about who should make the Astros All-Aughts team (this is my article and I like the term aughts the best.)

HLP and I started going over the possibilities earlier in the week and realized one thing: this decade cannot be figured out easily. For one thing, there wasn't a lot of stability for us throughout the decade. Secondly, Lance Berkman played too many positions during the decade. So we could legitimately just fill in Lance Berkman at CF, LF, and 1B. But what about Jeff Bagwell at 1B? Or Carlos Lee in LF? Is Lance really going to be the CF of the decade or should Hidalgo?

For example, the first base conundrum works out like this: In years in which they were the primary first basemen for the Astros in the Aughts, Bagwell totaled 18.8 WAR and Berkman totaled 18.9. If I were to weight Berkman's WAR by the percentage of games he played 1B in the decade and give Bagwell back his .5 WAR from 2005, Bagwell would edge out Berkman 19.3 WAR to 16.03 WAR.

But is that fair? Sure, I've weighted Berkman's WAR by games played, but that's a crude weighting. Correcting that way for every position for every year could work, but it does it answer the question that we as fans want answered?

To me, it doesn't. I look at that WAR graph and the numbers that construct it and still can't shake the feeling that to me, Lance Berkman is the 1B of the decade.

But this really isn't something that I should just opine on solo because we have each other. I mean, do you really want me to chart the weighted WAR of Richard Hidalgo, Lance Berkman, and Willy Taveras in CF? My guess—nay hope—is no. I'm sure for that amongst ourselves, we can decide on an All-Aughts team comprised of the following positions (my votes in parenthesis):

First Base (Lance Berkman)
Second Base (the easiest one, Craig Biggio)
Third Base (Morgan Ensberg...I threw up a little in the back of my mouth typing that)
Short Stop (Adam "Carlos Lee nearly destroyed my career" Everett)
Left Field (Carlos Lee)
Center Field (Undecided, but leaning towards Hidalgo)
Right Field (Undecided)
Catcher (Brad Ausmus)
Right-handed Starter (Roy Oswalt)
Left-handed Starter (Andy Petitte)
Closer (Brad Lidge)

What say you? Let's take the next few days to hash this out in the comments section and once some sort of consensus is reached, I'll post the results and figure out what kind of win totals that team would have posted in a single season.

Mannion Expands Role With Dodgers

Eric Stephen — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:45:46 -0000

Day one of the winter meetings hasn't brought much news regarding the Dodgers, other than speculation and rumors, which can be fun. However, the Dodgers did announce today that team president Dennis Mannion will now oversee baseball operations in addition to his current duties running the daily business side of the franchise.

From the Dodgers:

To date, Mannion has had responsibility for business operations, including marketing, sponsorships, finance, ticket sales, human resources, communications and legal affairs. In his new role, Mannion will also oversee General Manager Ned Colletti, who manages the team’s baseball operations.

Mannion is one of the most tenured executives in professional sports. He first joined the Dodgers in 2007 following 27 seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Denver Nuggets, Colorado Avalanche and Baltimore Ravens.

"Dennis is a seasoned sports executive who has done a great job since arriving at the Dodgers," said Dodger Owner Frank McCourt. "He has already begun integrating baseball operations with the rest of the organization, and today’s announcement formalizes that transition."

I did have the good fortune to meet Mannion during my tour of Camelback Ranch this spring, and even though it was a passing meeting outside the club's offices, Mannion did go out of his way to elicit the opinion of us Dodger bloggers and seemed genuinely interested in our thoughts. I have no idea how that will affect his ability to run a franchise, but he did seem to have a presence, if that counts for anything.

Colletti praised the move, saying, "I have long believed that both sides of the operation will function better as one - both understanding the challenges each has and working together to celebrate the triumphs as one group. This move acknowledges that and I embrace it wholeheartedly." But then again, what else would Colletti say in a team press release?

Who knows what effect this move will have on the Dodgers? It will probably be minimal on the baseball side, but time will tell.

**********

OK, so there is a little bit of news. The Dodgers announced a few things via Twitter:

The Dodgers are "not shopping" George Sherrill
Scott Elbert and Josh Lindblom are being groomed for starting pitching roles, whereas James McDonald is "more flexible."
Brad Ausmus is leaning toward returning for 2010, and Colletti has been in contact with him all winter

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Eric Stephen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:

Free Agents (13+1)

Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf

Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**

Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver

*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.

There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.

**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only

Options (2)

Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
George Sherrill	4.147	$2,750,000
Jonathan Broxton	4.020	$1,825,000
Andre Ethier	3.153	$3,100,000
Russell Martin	3.150	$3,900,000
Hong-Chih Kuo	3.114	$437,000
Chad Billingsley	3.110	$475,000
Matt Kemp	3.049	$467,000
James Loney	3.012	$465,000
Jason Repko	3.067	$500,000

Look for: Repko to get non-tendered

Under Contract (4)

Player	2009 Salary	2010 Salary
Rafael Furcal	$10,500,000	$8,500,000
Juan Pierre	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Casey Blake	$5,250,000	$6,000,000
Hiroki Kuroda	$10,000,000	$13,000,000

Under Team Control (15)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
Ramon Troncoso	1.119	$401,000
Clayton Kershaw	1.105	$404,000
Cory Wade	1.096	$402,500
Eric Stults	1.072	$402,000
Blake DeWitt	1.048	$405,000
James McDonald	1.004	$400,750
Ronald Belisario	1.000	$400,000
Chin-Lung Hu	0.153	$401,000
Xavier Paul	0.151	$400,000
Charlie Haeger	0.125	$400,000
Scott Elbert	0.097	$400,000
Brent Leach	0.090	$400,000
A.J. Ellis	0.081	$400,000
Travis Schlichting	0.055	$400,000
Lucas May	0.000	------

Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:

Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency

November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)

December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation

December 10: Rule 5 draft

December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players

It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.