SB Nation - Matt Kata

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.

Lance Berkman lands on the DL; Where do the Astros go from here?

HighLeveragePerformer — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 21:51:29 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

See ya in a fortnight, Big Puma.

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First of all, thanks to Joe and Timmy for breaking this story.

This is not the kind of news you want to hear heading into another tremendously important week-one that sees the Astros head on a two series road trip against both the Cubs and the Cards.

Richard Justice's take on the situation can be found here.

Of course we're bummed, but this is the hand that fate has dealt us. Where do the Astros go from here?

Edwin Maysonet has been called up to join fellow Round Rock staple Matt Kata on the big league roster. Maysonet did fairly well in his 19 games as an Astro earlier this season, totaling a .315/.356/.763 line in just 54 ABs. He can play all over the infield, and is a plus defender at second at third. He won't come close to replacing Lance Berkman, but nobody can. In terms of wOBA, Lance's fifteen day departure leaves a gaping hole in the infield:

Miguel Tejada, wOBA= .356

Jeff Keppinger, wOBA= .323

Kaz Matsui, wOBA= .289

Geoff Blum, wOBA= .316

Matt Kata, wOBA=.179

Edwin Maysonet, wOBA= .337

Chris Coste, wOBA= .319

Lance Berkman, wOBA= .397

Considering how .340 is roughly average for a major leaguer, this is not a pretty picture. We know that Kepp and Blum get on base at a nice clip, but wOBA tells us that they do so with mostly singles. Kaz is just now creeping out a season long slump, so expect his numbers to rise in the coming weeks. Matt Kata does not need to be on a major league roster, especially one missing their best offensive player. Berkman's replacement, Maysonet, is a league average player right now, but he probably can't sustain that kind of production this season given the amount of at bat's he's almost sure to amass during Berkman's time on the pine.

What could make these next few weeks a bit more bearable? Well for one thing, substituting John Gall or Mark Saccomano for Matt Kata would help. Yes, I realize that Cecil Cooper loves him some Kata because he's got "experience" and "versatility", but he won't be helping at all offensively. As I was reminded, neither Gall nor Saccomano are on the 40 man roster which means they are not eligible to play for the Astros as of now. With the glove, he is adequate at second base. However, the Astros already struggle mightily with hitting for extra bases, and Saccomano and Gall would both offer better options than Kata in that regard. What's more- Maysonet offers a similar skill package as Kata, but is better in most every aspect of the game- getting on base, hitting for power, defene and baserunning. Matt Kata is a superflous player on this roster. Jason Michaels inexplicably takes up a roster spot, and now so does Kata.

I don't want to lay all of the Astros' problems at Matt Kata's feet, but in a time as important as this, he just doesn't stand to help the cause. Perhaps it was fortuitous, a GM's intuition, or both that led Ed Wade to sign Chris Coste. He was a nice story for the Phillies, but now he has to be more than that for the Astros. Expect him to face left handers with regularity, as his career numbers indicate he produces well against them. Jeff Keppinger should remain the designated third basemen when facing lefties, while Geoff Blum can fill in at first sparingly.

Reality has hit Astros' fans square in the face today. If nothing else, these next few weeks are going to be interesting, if not season defining. Mr. Santana will greet them on the other side..

Monday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:32:59 -0000

Darin Erstad is most likely headed to the DL after injuring his hamstring on Saturday night. He joins Chris Sampson as a recent addition to that undesirable group. It's not like Erstad is a dependable bat off the bench, but with Lance Berkman still a little gimpy, now it seems like the Astros will be forced to call up a player like Matt Kata or even Jason Smith. Hopefully not, but old-ness is key when making personnel decisions for this club.

Sort of a statistical oddity eminating from yesterday's game against LA: Matt Kemp became the first player in almost forty years to score all four of his team's runs in a game.

ESPN Insider keeps most of us from reading more, but Buster Olney tells us that children will most likely not lead the Astros into October. As Roy Oswalt tells him:

Young guys don't know how long the season is. They might figure there's no way to catch up. But older guys know that all it takes is a good run, winning 10 out of 14, and you're right back in it.

As soon as the Astros' veteran laden crew doesn't have a strong second half, I'll call Roy out on his reasoning. For now, it's a tough point to argue as far as the Astros are concerned.

Richard Justice has the right idea, methinks. We may all be on the bandwagon of a team that, failng to make the playoffs, is heading off a cliff into a canyon of hefty contracts that seem to stretch into perpituity and precious few minor leaguers to take the place of exiting veterans. As for now though, we can enjoy the ride while all four wheels still work.

The Brewers traded for Arizona secondbaseman Felipe Lopez yesterday, and Fangraphs analyzes the deal for us. A month ago, I wouldn't have cared too much about any move Milwaukee made. As long as we're in the hunt though, I'm verryyyy interested.

Speaking of the NL Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates have made token contract offers to Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, but have been rebuffed by both players. Pretty savvy move there, Neal Huntington and co.- show the fans in Pittsburgh that you care just enough to offer less than market contracts to your two veterans, so that when you ultimately trade them, you can say "At least we tried!" Say what you will about Drayton McLane, but at least he's given us winners more often than not.

Astros drop a heartbreaker to the Tigers 4-3

DyingQuail — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 20:51:07 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I'd be angry too.

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We could pin this on fan interference, but at the end of the day, Jose Valverde blew the save. I'm not sure what hurts worse: Former Astro Josh Anderson dealing the final blow? or my brain trying to wrap my mind around the Darin Erstad for Lee, Matt Kata for Erstad, Jason Michaels for Geoff Blum switches at the end of the game (not to mention the line up or Ortiz being allowed to hit to throw another 1/3 of an inning)?

Russ Ortiz had a strong outing: 7.1 IP, 5K, 0BB, 6H, 2ER and it was squandered. There are positives to take away because the bull pen wasn't stretched and the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs are en route to losses right now.

I could write more, but I don't want to take away from the power of this graphic, which demonstrates Valvede's astounding -.662 WPA for the day:

via www.fangraphs.com

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Why did the Astros option Edwin Maysonet to AAA?: Good Question

DyingQuail — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I feel you, Edwin. Stay strong.

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The Astros had a hard decision on their hands yesterday when they activated Geoff Blum from the DL. With a surplus of role players already on the bench, someone had to go. The options, at least in my mind, were probably between the following guys:

Michales and Kata are both on the wrong side of 30, while Edwin Maysonet, who has had a sterling 2009 campaign at both AAA and the major league level, is 27. Both Kata and Maysonet can play multiple defensive positions in the infield with Kata actually having spent sometime roving around the outfield during the course of his career. Kata probably should receive credit on this point because he's an über utility man and a switch hitter (i.e. the ultimate grab a glove or a bat and get in there kind of guy).

So with three options, how did the Astros arrive at sending Maysonet to AAA? I'll go through how I would have approached this decision after the jump.

Making defensive assessments of their 2009 campaigns is too dicey because all have seen limited playing time at their positions and defensive metrics require a large sample size to have real meaning. Looking at career trends, Michaels has been a stellar defensive player for most of his career, but since 2006 has been worth 5.7 UZR in a 2000+ inning span, and hasn't been anything special with the Astros in 2009. Kata has pretty much been average to just below average everywhere on the field since 2005 (minorleaguesplits.com doesn't have a link and his UZR samples are just to small to say anything meaningful). Maysonet has been slighly plus at SS throughout his career and even saw time in left field in 2008 where he broke even (minorleaguesplits.com and same caveat about his UZR samples).

The conclusions I came to after looking at all the numbers is that Maysonet is probably slightly better than Kata in the infield and it seems like Michaels really doesn't offer anything, at this point, that Kata or Maysonet couldn't in LF. Really though a cases could be made to go a variety of ways with that assessment, so please weigh in on were you stand, but It's clear that none of them can claim to be the consensus glove off the bench guy.

So that leaves their offensive contributions:

Edwin Maysonet: .315 AVG / .356 OBP / .407 SLG / .337 wOBA (career wOBA: .315)
Matt Kata: .240 AVG / .269 OBP / .280 SLG / .249 wOBA (career wOBA: .293)
Jason Michaels: .179 AVG .247 OBP / .290 SLG / .303 wOBA (career wOBA: .327)

Arguably, Jason Michales has had the hardest job of all three of these guys because a lot of his PAs have been as pinch hitter, so you can read his line with a small grain of salt if you wish. On offense though, Edwin Maysonet has been an above league average hitter in terms of wOBA (league average is around .330 depending on the year), while Michaels BB% of 6.9% has helped him out quite a bit in the wOBA department over Kata. Maysonet posted a 6.1% BB% and the only time Kata has reached base this year other than a hit is his one HBP. Maysonet's numbers are inflated due to his LD% of 26.8% which is not only unsustainable in general, but well above his career average of 16.2%. For what it is worth, he had a LD% of 19.8% AAA before being called up this year, so you can decide where exactly to regress his batting average. (line drive data from minorleaguesplits.com)

Looking at those lines and keeping in mind the other caveats that have to be introduced, as well as the career declines of both Kata and Michaels based on their age, it really feels like the Astros should have been deciding on whether to designate Kata or Michaels for assignment (does Kata have to be designated or just optioned?).

The only thing I've been able to dig up on the move from an organizational perspective are the following:

"He's done exactly what we've needed him to do," manager Cecil Cooper said on Friday. "He hasn't not played well. It's just that the role has been diminished, because guys have become healthy, the guys that were supposed to be out there playing are playing."

To me, that elucidates...nothing. So maybe Coop's comment on why having Blum back helps us make sense of somethings:

"It's another left-handed bat and makes us stronger," Cooper said.

Admittedly, the Astros are limited on left handed batters and with Kata being a switch hitter, he has that going for him in terms of staying on the roster. What's left then is a decision between designating Jason Michaels (age 33) for assignment or optioning Edwin Maysonet to AAA.

I run this through my head in the following way: Edwin Maysonet, in the prime age range of his career, is having a career year so far at the plate, can play multiple infield positions, has experience in the field and is even working on his catching abilities. Jason Michaels in the decline of his career, can only play the outfield, which hasn't be doing well, and has yet to prove himself capably offensively. If both Kata and Maysonet have played in the outfield during their careers and we already have a capable fourth outfield in Darin Erstad, why do we need to hold onto Jason Michaels? (Jeff Keppinger has also played in the outfield as well). When we looked at their offensive value above, the choice seemed to between Kata and Michaels, but if left handedness is being given weight, then Michaels sort of becomes the easy choice for who to boot.

The only conclusion I can come to is that he has a rapport with Ed Wade from his time in Philly and a guy in the Round Rock press box mentioned that there were a few of the Astros brass who weren't fans of Maysonet for no real reason in particular. At the very least this just feels like a preference for a veteran bench presence rather than youth. Maysonet needs no more seasoning at AAA; he's 27 years old and has had nearly 500 AB there. Even if Maysonet is kept on as a bench presence it's not like that's the kiss of death in terms of him seeing playing time. It just requires sounder management of our roster. Miguel Tejada needs more off days in the second half and Kazuo Matsui won't stay healthy for the rest of the season if he's allowed to grind it out every game; there is clearly use for him. All this move does is block Maysonet from developing at the major league level while he is capable of it and I am hard pressed to think of something positive that comes from this in return.

So at the end of all of this (and believe me, this has been a labor of inquiry) I'm left skeptical of this decision in terms of wanting to win baseball games, and I am confused as to why Jason Michaels and Brandon Backe aren't both trying to plot their return to baseball with another team.

Poll

If you're in the driver's seat, who do you get rid of?

Maysonet

12 votes

Kata

53 votes

Michaels

241 votes

306 votes | Poll has closed

Miggy walks off and the Astros make up for missed chances

DyingQuail — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 04:43:38 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

WALKOFF!!

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I got to listen to most of this on the radio and then see the last five or so innings on TV, in between fighting my mom who was watching a season finale. I let out quite a few expletives. Here are my take aways from the game:

Paulino was dazzling: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, 87 pitches (55 strikes). That's a stellar 7 K:BB ratio and an even more superlative 8.05 K/100. It's a shame he won't get the token win because of our offensive struggles.
Miggy was 4/6, with a walk off home run—nuff said.
Bourn was 2/4 with 1 BB. I just heard Art Howe laud him for manufacturing that run in the 9th, but as I said at the time in the game thread: Luck. Not that I won't take it, but I don't want that outlier event to influence managerial tactics.
Lance had two hits and a walk...perhaps the five hole really agrees with him.
Matt Kata had some stellar, stellar defense saves, just not that possible walk off in the bottom of the ninth.

via www.fangraphs.com

The red bars are where the expletives were let lose.

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Astros' 25 Man Roster: Who's going up, who's sliding down

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 08:00:12 -0000

Going into the spring, we knew that a majority of this team was set in stone:

the bullpen
the front four starters in the rotation
the five outfielders
starting infield

In the past few weeks some things have changed that have caused the Astros to re-evaluate their roster heading into their April 6th opening day game against Chicago. Pudge Rodriguez was signed to a one year contract, most likely sliding JR Towles down to AAA. Luckily, Lou Palmisano was not taken back by Milwaukee, which allowed the Astros to keep keep him as a minor leaguer. Catcher depth is never a bad thing.

Aaron Boone had to have heart surgery, opening up a roster spot for a platoon partner with Geoff Blum. Chris Johnson is an option, but he would not be an ideal platoonmate with Blum, since both hit best against right handed pitchers. Jeff Baker, Juan Uribe and Jeff Keppinger are but a few names that have been tossed around as potential options at the hot corner. Internally, Chris Johnson seems to be our best, and only real option. Again, although he may be on the opening day roster, it doesn't mean that he will be successful immediately.

The fifth starter's slot was Brandon Backe's to lose, and as a result of injury and poor performance, Backe slides out. Going up is most likely Russ Ortiz. A non roster invitee, Ortiz has been impressive, no more so than in his last start against the Reds, a six inning, one hit, no run performance. Jose Capellan is another NRI, but after a shaky start against the Blue Jays, I'd expect him to be on the Express roster when Spring Training breaks.

As for our back up middle infielder, the Astros brought in a plethora of guys with plenty of warts. Whether it be age (David Newhan, Matt Kata, Jason Smith) or lack of a solid bat (Tommy Manzella and Edwin Maysonet), or lack of defensive skills (Drew Sutton).

It all depends on what Cecil Cooper is looking for. If he wants someone who can come in and hit well, I'd argue that Sutton is his best bet. Jason Smith has hit well in the spring, but he is a journey man and has never shown the ability to perform on this level. Sutton's pedigree is above average, and if given the opportunity to get ABs on a consistent basis, he could become a very serviceable major league hitter. This won't happen right off the bat, as he has been sent back to AAA. Smith's defense is suspect, and Kata, Newhan and Manzella have not performed well enough to earn a spot on the ML roster.

That leaves Edwin Maysonet, who has played well defensively and recently contributed to the offensive cause by knocking two home runs off of Toronto ace Roy Halladay.

Ortiz looks like a winner, Towles goes back down...for now

So where does that leave us? Here's what I think our 25 man roster will be heading into the regular season:

Catchers (2): Ivan Rodriguez, Humberto Quintero

Infielders (6): Lance Berkman, Kazuo Matsui, Miguel Tejada, Geoff Blum, Edwin Maysonet, Third Baseman- my vote goes to Jeff Baker if Colorado releases him

Outfielders (5): Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Jason Michaels, Darin Erstad

Starting Pitching Rotation (5): Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz

Relief Pitchers (7): Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, Doug Brocail, Jose Valverde, LaTroy Hawkins, Wesley Wright, Geoff Geary

This leaves us with nice depth in AAA. Players such as Alberto Arias, Jose Capellan, Bud Norris, Drew Sutton, Brian Bogusevic and Chris Johnson will gain valuable experience while giving the Astros options should injuries/poor performance occur.

Edwin Maysonet

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 16:23:58 -0000

Some things to read while protecting your mate from unwanted advances.

So you've probably heard that CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse all declined arbitration over the weekend. In fact, of the 24 free agents offered arbitration, 22 declined. Bleeding Blue and Teal thinks the Mariners should target Shouse, but as noted below, the Mariners appear to be targeting the entire Brewers organization.

Bleeding Blue and Teal also has the Brewers as a potential 2009 destination for 3B Adrian Beltre. There are worse options out there.

How's your fastball? The Junkball Blues takes a look at the fastball of Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, Seth McClung and a host of other Brewers.

Here's today's Sabathia Smorgasbord:

You've likely heard this one, as Jon Heyman and several other outlets are reporting the Brewers are expected to upgrade their offer to Sabathia, perhaps to include a sixth season.
Could the Red Sox be a player? MLB Trade Rumors says team officials will meet with Sabathia. Ian Browne of MLB.com downplayed the possibility anything could happen.
Bill Hall says 5 years/$100 million might be enough to keep Sabathia around.
Dayn Perry says Mark Teixiera will be a much less risky signing for his eventual team.

FanGraphs thinks the Brewers got a pretty good deal on Jorge Julio, based on his projections for 2009.

We've been talking for months about the possibility of Mike Cameron moving to New York, but I don't know if we've ever discussed the possibility that he could be a Met.

Are you craving more minor league discussion? John Sickels is getting ready to release his list of the top 20 Brewer prospects. Click the link to go discuss your favorite prospects.

Speaking of prospects, TheJay has continued the series over at Recondite Baseball by making leaderboards for errors in AA, giving me the opportunity to point out that Chris Errecart (1B), Mike Bell (2B), Mat Gamel (3B) and Cole Gillespie (OF) were all among the leaders.

So, with the Winter Meetings almost over, the next deadline is Friday, when teams could non-tender players for 2009. MLB Trade Rumors has a list of candidates, including Chris Capuano. Elsewhere on the hot stove:

Angels: Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixiera and Jon Garland all declined arbitration, but Darren Oliver accepted.
Astros: Signed Matt Kata to a minor league deal.
Athletics: The team reportedly offered Rafael Furcal a four year deal, but will move on to other targets now that he's rejected it.
Blue Jays: A.J. Burnett declined arbitration. Joe DelGrippo says his mechanics make him a high injury risk.
Braves: Team officials sound pretty optimistic about John Smoltz's chances to return in 2009 after watching him throw off a mound this weekend. They're also aggressively pursuing Raul Ibanez at the winter meetings.
Cardinals: May still be in the running for Jake Peavy after all. They're also showing interest in A.J. Burnett.
Cubs: Signed former Brewer C Mark Johnson and two others to minor league deals.
D-Backs: Brandon Lyon declined arbitration and is likely headed elsewhere. With him and Adam Dunn gone, the team might have money to re-sign Randy Johnson after all.
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe and Casey Blake all declined arbitration. Also, Joe Torre downplayed a rumor that Andy Pettitte could come to LA.
Giants: Are downplaying their interest in several big-ticket free agents, but especially Manny Ramirez.
Indians: Signed Tomo Ohka to a minor league deal.
Mariners: The team has to be hoping one of the jilted suitors for Pirates SS Jack Wilson will turn their attention to Yuniesky Betancourt. Also, Raul Ibanez declined arbitration.
Mets: Oliver Perez declined arbitration.
Rangers: The team may be looking to trim payroll, which I guess makes them a less likely suitor for Ben Sheets. Also, Milton Bradley declined arbitration.
Red Sox: Jason Varitek declined arbitration.
Reds: Re-signed Mike Lincoln to a two-year deal. Also, they may or may not have reached a deal to trade Homer Bailey to the White Sox for Jermaine Dye, depending on which source you believe, and David Weathers accepted arbitration.
Rockies: Brian Fuentes declined arbitration.
Tigers: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire C Gerald Laird from the Rangers. They could also be looking to sign Kerry Wood.

Obviously, we're still a while away from knowing which players made the Hall of Fame on the BBWAA ballot, but Dugout Central is reporting Joe Torre, Dick Allen and Ron Santo will be elected by the Veterans' Committee. UPDATE: THEY'RE WRONG. Meanwhile, Dan Plesac, one of three former Brewers on the BBWAA ballot, has accepted a job with the new MLB Network. He'll get to play in their new mini stadium.

I'm still somewhat behind the curve on defensive metrics, although I'm trying to learn. If you're also learning, you should probably check out Dave Cameron's post on the goals and limitations of defensive stats.

We'll always have enough Tigers, Lions, Bears and Wildcats, so I for one applaud the voters for renaming the Winston-Salem baseball team The Dash.

In what can only be considered good news for the game, baseball continues to become more of a global sport. Just this offseason, the Pirates have signed players from South Africa and India, and the Rays are opening an academy in Brazil.

Meanwhile, if you're looking for a job that pays next to nothing a little closer to home, the Brewers are hiring interns.

Oh, and this doesn't work. Trust a voice of experience.

Drink up.

Astros sign Matt Kata to minor league contract; RJ blogs about Wigginton's inevitable departure (again)

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 22:29:39 -0000

Just got out of exam number four and came across this annoucement from the Astros. Matt Kata has signed on to a minor league contract, and more importantly can lay claim to the always coveted "non-roster spring training invitee" label. Kata, 30, has 645 ABs in his four major league seasons. He's in the running to back up Miguel Tejada, along with minor leaguers Tommy Manzella, Edward Maysonet and TCB favorite Drew Sutton.

You may get to know me pretty soon...."may" being the operative word

***********************************************************************

Richard Justice blogged on a number of topics today. The main points:

Ty Wigginton is most likely headed elsewhere if Drayton intends to keep his payroll around $100 million
All of Justice's previous entries about McLane's penny pinching have been put into a different perspective, based on the extent of the economic downturn
The Astros can afford to wait on free agents, citing Kyle Loshe and Shawn Chacon as examples of decent arms that were available right up to the start of spring training
Teams that spent wisely, and developed/promoted home grown talent the past seasons are being rewarded now. (Just in case you were wondering, we're not one of those teams)
At first Justice thought that if San Diego came back and offered Peavy in a trade scenario, Drayton would've jumped at the chance to land him. Not so much now...
Unless Brad James and/or Bud Norris can contribute in any meaningful way next season, this team will not compete, at least in his estimation

I do tend to agree with Justice's points this time around. The market for closers is dicey right now, so holding on to Valverde is probably wise. Look at what the Rockies are doing with the recently acquired Huston Street. It seems as if their plan is to keep him around until his value sky rockets at the trade deadline next July. Even so, Valverde is coming off a second straight season of leading the NL in saves, and Street didn't finish 2008 as the A's closer. Still- when Francisco Rodriguez, coming off the greatest save season in history, can't get a deal right off the bat, the market just isn't there.

It seems more and more likely that Wigginton is going to be traded. Teams in both leagues (Cleveland and Los Angeles come to mind immediately) need a third baseman for 2009, and coming off a solid year, Wigginton seems like a perfect candiate to get shipped away. Combine his 2008 performance with Drayton's payroll desires and a perfect storm seems to be brewing.

As far as waiting to sign a FA until later, I think RJ may be on to something. With teams less and less willing to offer big money contracts early on in the off season, perhaps more players will wait it out until 2009 to sign. Who knows what will happen if a player decides to hold off on signing until February. When their hands are forced they may sign with a team for a lower number than they would have hoped for.

If we need Brad James and Bud Norris to ride in on a couple of white horses to save our bacon, we're in for a long 2009. These two don't seem to be top of the line pitchers. Both have had control issues in the past (as recently as the AFL). Neither have pitched in AAA, not to mention the majors. Felipe Paulino or Alberto Arias should be counted on, in my opinion, more so than either James or Norris. Although Norris was named to the AFL Top Prospects Team.