SB Nation - Adam LaRoche

Loney's Improvement a Key for 2010

Eric Stephen — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 05:18:39 -0000

Including the playoffs, James Loney hit 13 of his 15 home runs on the road in 2009

If this offseason has taught us anything so far, it's that the Dodger roster as it stands now, four days before Christmas, won't be much different than the one that opens the regular season on April 5 in Pittsburgh. The core of the team will carry this team as far as it's going to go. Most of that nucleus is young and on the upswing, which is good for a team that needs their improvement to fuel another postseason run.

These young players also fit a key requirement to be a Dodger these days, in that they are cheap, at least relatively so. Using Wins Above Replacement (on Fangraphs), the Dodgers' two best players last season were Matt Kemp (5.0 WAR) and Clayton Kershaw (4.2 WAR, tied with Casey Blake). Those two made a combined $871,000 in 2009, meaning they were two of the most valuable players in baseball. Many of these young players are due for raises in 2010, as the Dodgers lead baseball with nine arbitration-eligible players.

One of the most intriguing stories of 2010 will be the performance of first baseman James Loney. He is eligible for arbitration for the first time, and he will probably make somewhere between $3 million to $3.5 million next season. Loney has just over three years of service time, and here are some comparable first basemen heading into their fourth year in recent seasons:

			Stats Through 3rd Year
First Baseman	Year	Service Time	OPS+	Runs	RBI	4th Year Salary
Adam LaRoche	2007	3 years	114	187	213	$3.2 million
Kevin Youkilis	2008	3 yrs, 93 days	109	234	199	$3 million
Mike Jacobs	2009	3 yrs, 47 days	110	197	247	$3.25 million
James Loney	2010	3 yrs, 12 days	112	200	265	???
Service time courtesy of the great Cot's Baseball Contracts

Loney is not quite at the crossroads of his Dodger career, but he is getting closer. He plays first base, the most offensive-minded position in baseball, while last season Loney had a slugging percentage of .399. It's one thing to accept relatively low production from your first baseman when he is making $465,000, as Loney did in 2009, because the team can theoretically use the savings to spend money on other positions. Now that Loney will likely make $3 million or more, it's time to look at first base with a more critical eye.

I'm not saying it's time to cut bait on Loney. He will turn 26 in April, about to enter a time which is often considered the prime of a player's career. He also has the extreme home/road splits (.709 career OPS at Dodger Stadium, .900 OPS on the road), and if anyone can figure out how to harness Road Loney at home the Dodgers will benefit greatly. We can also look to the recent past to find another Dodger first baseman who struggled as he entered his arbitration seasons.

Eric Karros -- who is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this season, by the way -- was once in the very same shoes worn by Loney today. Karros won rookie of the year in 1992, hitting 20 home runs with 88 runs batted in, then struggled over the next two seasons. Loney took over Dodger first base duties in June 2007, and hit .331 with 15 dingers, only to descend into mediocrity over his next two seasons.

	Eric Karros		James Loney
	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)
1st year	1992	106 (9th of 12)	2007	134 (4th of 16)
2nd year	1993	88 (13th of 15)	2008	103 (13th of 16)
3rd year	1994	95 (10th of 14)	2009	104 (13th of 16)

Heading into their first arbitration-eligible seasons, here's how Karros and Loney compare:

Pre Arbitration Years
Player	Years	Ages	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
Eric Karros	1991-1994	23-26	1710	188	79	57	215	.254/.298/.417	95
James Loney	2006-2009	22-25	1788	200	84	45	265	.295/.354/.451	112

Loney doesn't look so bad now, does he? That .298 on-base percentage for Karros really stands out. I don't remember caring too much about OBP back then, but wow. However, here is what Karros did during his three seasons of arbitration:

Eric Karros Arbitration Years
Year	Age	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
1995	27	620	83	29	32	105	.298/.369/.535	145
1996	28	670	84	29	34	111	.260/.316/.479	113
1997	29	700	86	28	31	104	.266/.329/.459	110
Totals		1990	253	86	97	320	.274/.337/.489	122

Throw in the fact that Loney is a year younger than Karros was, and it's not hard to see a scenario in which Loney comes into his own over the next three seasons. He'll pretty much have to, because the Dodgers need it.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:58:22 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

The Atlanta Braves began the revamping of their bullpen for 2010 with the signing of veteran closer Billy Wagner.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on December 6th:

In the Press...

Without too much surprise, the Braves offered arbitration to both relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, while declining to offer arbitration to Adam LaRoche and Garrett Anderson.
Only a day after the arbitration decisions on both Soriano and Gonzalez, the Braves moved quickly to secure their closer for 2010 by signing Billy Wagner to a one-year contract with a vesting option.
Talking Chop was one of the first sources for Billy Wagner press conference notes and pics.
Before we could fully digest the Wagner signing, the Braves signed a setup man and capable closer in his own right, Takashi Saito to a one year contract.
Once again, Talking Chop was one of the first sources for Saito press conference notes and pics.
There was some hubbub earlier in the week about whether or not Soriano would accept or reject arbitration, with several national reporters having differing info. That impending decision on Soriano's part was apparently still up in the air late in the week.
Freddie Freeman ranked as the 7th-best prospect in the AFL.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll experienced some static, but remained unchanged.
Fan House did a good job of reviewing some Braves prospects.
I once again made the argument for Dale Murphy for Hall of Fame!
Talking Chop got some exclusive notes on a Sirius XM interview with Frank Wren.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

Sid Bream's Moustache passed along the news of Chip Cara parting ways with TBS.
The Keith Lockhart Era linked to a good Frank Wren interview.
PWHjort tried to get all technical on Derek Lowe's numbers. He came to a similar conclusion that I came to in my season review... that Lowe wasn't really that bad.
Zeus12888 shared with us his conclusions from a project he conducted in statistics class about the effects of sacrifice bunting. It's good stuff, and well put together... well worth a read.

Should be a fun week this week with the Winter Meetings getting under way in Indy.

Braves Rumors

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 00:53:33 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

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After signing two relievers earlier this week, the Braves are still keeping tabs on the market in hopes of landing an outfielder or first baseman. The Braves are still talking with Adam LaRoche, but reports that they are also talking to Nick Johnson indicate that the LaRoche negotiations might not be going as planned.

Johnson hit .291 with 8 home runs in 133 games with the Nationals and Marlins last season, and is also drawing interest from the Mets, Orioles, and Giants. Sources say the Giants are the favorites to land him.

In the outfield, the Braves are considering Marlon Byrd and Mark DeRosa. DeRosa, a former Brave, would give the Braves a reliable veteran who can play the corner outfield spots, first, second, and third base. He is coming off back-to-back 20 home run seasons, but offseason wrist surgery might bring his power back down to the 10-12 homer range.

Byrd is also coming off a solid season, and would give the Braves a solid center fielder, meaning Nate McLouth can be moved to one of the corners. Byrd hit well for the Rangers, but was not as patient at the plate as he was in 2008.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Marlon Byrd	146	547	66	155	43	2	20	89	32	98	8	4	.283	.329	.479

One AL source contemplated the idea of the Braves and Tigers discussing a deal around Curtis Granderson. The Braves have an influx of pitching, and could send Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe (with cash) in a package for the outfielder. As of right now, that has not been confirmed.

Next week the Braves will talk with the representatives of Adam LaRoche, who has drawn interest from the Mets, and likely will try to deal a starting pitcher to free up some additional cash.

Braves Offer Arbitration to Relievers Gonzalez and Soriano

gondeee — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 23:23:16 -0000

In a move that many expected, the Atlanta Braves have offered salary arbitration to their two closers from last year, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. The two now have a couple of weeks to accept of decline the offer of arbitration. If either player signs with another team the Braves will receive the other team's first or second round pick as well as a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds of next summer's draft.

The Braves declined to offer arbitration to first baseman Adam LaRoche and left fielder Garret Anderson. The LaRoche decision is surprising as it leaves Atlanta without a fall-back option at first base should they not land another free agent or player via trade, but he may have made as much as $10 million in an arbitration decision, so the team likely could not have afforded to let him re-sign.

Gonzalez and Soriano, meanwhile, would likely cost much less than $10 million if they accept arbitration, but it is thought that they will find plenty of bidders for their services on the free agent market. It was thought that the Braves would try to re-sign at least one of the relievers, believed to be Gonzalez, but that was before he retained Scott Boras as his new agent. It is now viewed that both relievers are out of the range of what the Braves would be willing to offer in terms of years on a contract and money per year.

This decision also allows the Braves to seek two type-A free agents of their own without the risk of any net loss in high-round draft picks next year.

Nick Johnson drawing interest on open market?

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:37:24 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

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Foxsports.com is reporting that the Mariners have interest in free agent first baseman Nick Johnson. The Mariners are still negotiating with Russell Branyan, who recently rejected their one-year offer.

Johnson is also drawing interest from the Giants, Mets, and Yankees, who see Johnson as a fallback at the DH spot if they miss out on Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. Sources say the Braves have some interest, but only if they are unable to sign Adam LaRoche.

Johnson put together a strong season, and he could really look like a bargain if he finds some of the power that was missing in 2009.

The Mariners are looking at Johnson, among others, if Branyan does in fact sign elsewhere. Casey Kotchman is someone they are keeping their eye on, but he would only become available if the Red Sox do not offer him a contract.

Braves Rumors for Monday

yondaime4 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 22:58:51 -0000

More photos » by Paul Abell - AP

7 months ago: Atlanta Braves' Jordan Schafer drives in two runs with a single to right field in the bottom of the third inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies in Atlanta, Tuesday, May 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Paul Abell)

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There are some interesting tidbits floating around the internet today concerning the Braves, mostly coming out of Dave O'Brien and Mark Bowman.

Dave O'Brien speculates on who Atlanta might be interested in this off season. They are the usual suspects such as Josh Willingham, Carl Crawford, Mark Derosa, Mike Cameron and Jermaine Dye. One note that came through via MLB Trade Rumors is that Jermaine Dye would be open to playing first base. I think his bat could be a good fit with Atlanta if we don't resign Adam Laroche, and especially if he isn't the defensive liability at 1B that he is in the OF (which we honestly don't know if he would do well there). The problem would still be the same as with Laroche, however: how would we pay him?

Mark Bowman also weighs in on the closer situation, Adam Laroche, Adrian Gonzalez and Jordan Schafer's future with Atlanta via his weekly mailbag. I am a bit surprised to see him say that the Braves might trade Schafer in the offseason and I had fallen in love with the idea of a Heyward/Schafer/McLouth OF over the next 3 years, but if we are offered the right package I would be willing to move him. I hope they ask me.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:34:49 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez may be harder to re-sign now that Scott Boras is his agent.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending November 22nd:

In the Press...

Tommy Hanson finished a disappointing third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting.
Pitcher Buddy Carlyle signed with the Nippon Ham Fighters to play in Japan next year.
Mike Gonzalez changed agents to Scott Boras.
We learned through a couple of different sources that the Braves are indeed trying to move Derek Lowe, but are having difficulty doing so.
The Braves added five pitchers to their 40-man roster, protecting them from the Rule 5 draft next month.
The Royals signed former Braves pitcher Jorge Campillo.

At Talking Chop...

I took a look at the choice the Braves made with Andruw Jones and the choice the Blue Jays made with Vernon Wells.
We were the first to report on the Braves minor league free agents.
We reviewed the 2009 seasons of relievers Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and the rest of the Braves relievers.
We took a look at some of the top free agents and how they affect the Braves.
Matt and CB reviewed the Braves top-10 minor league relievers here and here.
The bloggers at TC did a round table on the relievers in the Braves system.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

Dave_D shared some professional looking photos of some Gwinnett Braves players.
Mgomez4closer wants us to take a look at some minor league free agents.
'hawkchop is concerned about relying too heavily on an ETA for Freddie Freeman.
alligatorimpersonator wants the Braves to bring back Andruw Jones.
Dutch Braves Fan thinks we should re-sign Adam LaRoche.
Doghnut shares a link with us to a good explanation of BABIP.

Interesting Free Agent Rankings

gondeee — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:33:52 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

Billy Wagner could wind up in an Atlanta Braves uniform next year.

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Keith Law ranks the top-50 free agents at ESPN Insider. Some interesting notes:

He lists Mike Gonzalez 16th, ahead of Rafael Soriano, saying they are the two best relievers on the market, but he considers Gonzo healthier and more valuable from the left side.
Rafael Soriano is 19th, and the thing that jumped out at me is that Law says he should be looking for K-Rod type money in a contract. Francisco Rodriguez got a 3-year, $37 million deal after leading the AL in saves, Soriano has been a full-time closer for less than a year, and as my 2009 review of him showed, he regressed throughout 2009. I can't see a team desperate enough to give Soriano that type of money, or even close. Maybe I'm misjudging the market for relievers.
Billy Wagner is ranked 23rd, and Law says of him that the biggest concern is if he can handle the closer's workload, and that an incentive-laden contract for games finished would make sense for the signing team. I can see the Braves being open to something along those lines.
He mentions a Japanese reliever named Ryota Igarashi, and I can see the Braves taking a chance on him if he chooses to come to the States.
Adam LaRoche is listed 29th, and while the review is not glowing -- pointing out his overall averageness and his first half swoon -- Law seems to think that some team will still pay him like a regular first baseman in both salary and years. This could easily put the Braves out of the running. I still think our best option is to offer him arbitration and act excited if he accepts, keeping him around for one more year.
I noticed that there were a lot of free agent second basemen. Teams needing a second baseman and not wanting to give up the draft picks to sign one of the free agents may create a market for Kelly Johnson.

Good overview of the free agents by Law, if you're an insider you should check it out.

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The relievers

DyingQuail — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:39:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

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Why are we fretting so much about Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins? I mean aside from the fact that they're talented pitchers with above average ability. Closers, and the set-up men whose shoulders they stand on, enter games in situations where we as fans have our stomach in knots. In someone like Valverde's case, he toes the rubber and pumps 97 MPH fastballs while mixing in, most of the time, a devastating split-finger pitch.

With starters, each at bat doesn't have the feeling of importance that a closer's does. A starter always has another inning or two to work with, and there are still plenty outs for the offense to work with, too. But relievers are leveraged.

Why the waxing sentimental? Because that's how I arrived at today's post. Instead of combining starters and relievers into one mess of who had the best WPA added in a single game, I decided to isolate which relievers had the best WPA added in a single PA.

No. 1 - LaTroy Hawkins on June 13th

This was an awkward day of Hawkins. Valverde was working himself back into the job that Hawkins had dutifully filled for him in his extended DL stay. So, I guess it's understandable that Hawkins starts on of his final 9th inning save opportunities a little shaky.

via www.fangraphs.com

With the Astros leading 6-4, Hakwins quickly found himself with runners on first and second and none out. Hawkins rebounded with a GIDP on Justin Upton that netted him an astounding .293 WPA on a single PA due to a leverage index of 5.91 (a run at that point would have been like Jon Garland giving up 5.91 runs to start the top of the first, or half a Jason Jennings here or here).

No. 2 - Jelf Fulchino on June 7th

Cecil Cooper trots out Tim Brydak to start the bottom of the seventh. Two batters latter, Cecil Cooper brings in Jeff Fulchino to clean up a bases loaded, no outs jam. Yes, Fulchino gives up two runs, but the situation had an RE of 2.30, so technically Fulchino saves our butts, because the third run puts the Pirates in the drivers seat.

via www.fangraphs.com

Finally, though, Fulchino is on the receiving end of an Adam LaRoche double play and the inning is over. For his trouble, Fulchino is credited with .245 WPA, and has the satisfaction of knowing that he had the second most leveraged out of the year.

No. 3 Jose Valverde on September 29th

Some of us may not remember this one because, well, the Astros were depressing to watch at this point. However, there was still some excitement to experience.

via www.fangraphs.com

The story is pretty similar to the above. Valverde got himself in trouble to start the inning, but rallied to get out.Yet again, another double play ball, netting him .236 WPA on the GIDP of Laynce Nix. This begs the question, do the pitchers get the credit or does the defense? Or does it matter because all we're looking for are spectacular moments in relief pitching?

Like yesterday, what are the moments I missed because I did this by the numbers? Only, no poll because having to actually read the article to vote didn't mesh well with getting a lot of responses.

Braves Monday Odds and Ends

gondeee — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:37:22 -0000

Several things popping up on this Monday in the world of the Atlanta Braves

First... There are several people planning on attending Brian McCann's Celebrity Softball Game this Friday, November 13th at Georgia Tech. It's for a great cause, and we'll get a little bit of a Braves baseball fix here in the middle of the winter. For details and to purchase tickets go here. Respond in the comments if you plan on going. Oh, and I just read that the Varisty will be selling food and drink... as if we needed a reason to go, hello, Varsity and baseball (softball, really) in one stop. (Perhaps the Braves will take note and put a Varsity at Turner Field next year.)

Second... The Elias rankings came out today and there were no surprises for the Braves. We have four free agents eligible for draft pick compensation were they to be offered arbitration by the Braves but sign elsewhere. Relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez are type-A free agents (meaning we would get a first round and supplemental first round pick), and Adam LaRoche and Garret Anderson are type-B free agents (meaning we would get a supplemental first round pick).

Third... David O'Brien of the AJC is now on Twitter, and he has this nugget from the GM Meetings (which started today):

I'm hearing the Braves have discussed trying to sign Javier Vazquez to a contract extension. Not sure if that's gotten anywhere yet or will.

And only this morning Buster Olney was saying we would trade him. Gonna be one of those winters...