SB Nation - Rajai Davis

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: Philadelpha Phillies

devil_fingers — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:44:19 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, right, arrives at Penn Station with his wife, Jen. He's leading off up the escalator, so I don't see why he can't lead off at a baseball game as part of the World series. Note the relatively modest use of product in his hair. Maybe playing the Yankees in New York brings it out of him.

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Game One of the 2009 World Series ended with the Phillies (mainly Cliff Le) dominating the Yankees in a complete game. The batting order for the Yankees didn't quite match what I recommended for them yesterday, but we hardly expected that, did we? The Phillies have some very good hitters, although not quite as good overall as the Yankees. There is a definiitely dividing line between the really good hitters (Utley, Howard, Werth) and the others. (But it's worth keeping in mind, well-known-on-line-"sabermetric"-analyst-who-shall-go-nameless, that most of the less skilled Philadelphia hitters justify their playing because of their excellent defense. Also, stop using VORP.) The heavily-left-leaning nature of the core of the Phillies offense also poses a challenge. But hey, there's the easy way, and then there's the cowboy way... And it's nice not to have a lousy lineup to optimize. So here we go, it's late and I want to get this done before the World Series ends.

I'll leave out the usual incredibly long methodological preface that is on the other posts (again, see yesterday's post if you want to read it all). And definitely make sure you look it over before you complain about something. Keep in mind that these projections aren't mine, they're the 2010 Bill James projections. Yes, they're a bit goofy (particularly for the Phillies), but they're the only completely set I have at the moment. They get the job done well enough. Before we get started adjusting for platoons and everything, here are the unadjusted Phillies projections. I've calculated the wOBA myself, and the baserunning (EqHAR from BP) and double-play rate projections are also crude homemade projections.

Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.332	.260	.344	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.399	.278	.372	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Chase Utley	2B	L	.380	.290	.384	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.304	.253	.296	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.349	.270	.340	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jason Werth	RF	R	.371	.269	.369	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.337	.269	.339	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8

And away we go...

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.332	.269	.333	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: I'm sure you've noticed a crazy thing in there. But I stand by hitting Francisco in front of Ruiz. Of, what, it's not that? Utley hitting first seems crazy? Well, this whole thing is crazy. You want the best guys hitting #1, #2, and #4. However, as with other teams, all the Phillies best hitters vs. RHP are lefties, and you want to avoid stacking them so that the opposition can't leveraeg a lefty-reliever against them, as the Yankees did with Damaso Marte vs. Utley and Howard last night (obviously, it didn't decide the game). Also note that Chase Utley is good at everything. Maybe it will take a 2 HR performance against the Yankees in the World Serie for people to notice what a badass this guy has been and continues to be. He plays second base. He's one of the best (and possibly the best) defenders at that position in the majors, even after his offseason hip surgery. He's a great hitter. He's got a total greaseball hairdo. You knew all that. Did you also know that he stole 23 bases in the 2009 regular season without getting caught? Oh, he's also one of the best baserunners in the league overall, #2 in EqBRR between powerless speedsters like Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis this past season. Oh, and of all the players I ran the numbers on this past season, he is the best at avoiding the double play. Not bad for a guy who, to listen to some commentators, is a pretty good "sidekick" for Ryan Howard. Dude is so underrated he's raised some interesting questions. I'd say he's about as underrated as Carlos Beltran, except that Beltran gets more play (being in New York and one of Joe Posnanski's favorites doesn't hurt) and Utley has been the better player the last 4-5 season. Someone asked me last night on Twitter what it would take for Utley to finally win the NL MVP. I guess we'll see when Albert Pujols signs with the Royals in a couple of seasons... Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah. If I didn't worry so much about handedness, I'd probably hit Werth #1, then Utley-Ibanez-Howard or something. But I do worry about it. Hitting Chutley first minimizes his GDP skills and power, but since we ended up putting Victorino second because of handedness issues and Ibanez isn't as powerful as Werth and Howard, it does take advantage of Utley's skill on the bases. Werth has enough power to do well at cleanup and enough OBP to tackle the #4 spots frequent leadoff opportunities. Since neither he nor Ibanez are as good on the bases as Utley and VIctorino, having Howard behind them makes sense. Again, Howard #5 seems low, but #5 should be better than #3, and I needed to separate the lefties. Rollins offense has obviously declined, but he's not horrible, and #6 is a good spot for a guy who can steal bases in front of the weak hitters behind him who have trouble moving him over themselves.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Not much to add here. Remember that I could go either way on the pitcher thing... even a good-hitting pitcher is still usually worse than Pedro Feliz vs. RHP, although it's closer than you'd like. Basically I just took out Fransisco and put in the pitcher and moved Ruiz (not a bad hitter for a catcher) up. But let's talk about Rollins: He's not as good as he was (or he wasn't as good as we thought, depending on where you estimate his true talent in 2005-8 relative to now), but certain analysts have said that Rollins isn't the star he's made out to be. I don't know how you measure "starness," and I'll admit that I find JRoll's cockiness enjoyable. Still, just not being as good as Derek Jeter doesn't mean a player isn't good (and not that Jeter's the best SS in baseball, he's just an interesting comparison given the WS matchup). Moreover, how far is Rollins from Jeter, really? Sure, this season Jeter's about 5 wins better. But check it: FanGraphs has Jeter at about 26 WAR 2005-2009. Rollins is at a bit over 23 in the same period. That's pretty close to equal. Yes, it's true to say that Rollins is miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that doesn't mean he isn't (or hasn't been) an outstanding player, or even a star. It's weird how short- (and/or "narrow-") sighted people can be. Oh,. and one more thing on Utley power being "wasted" at leadoff: despite hitting #3, both his home runs last night were solo shots. Against a demonstration that batting order doesn't give as much control as we'd think, and why sometimes it's just better to give a good hitter (potentially) extra opportunities by moving him up than hoping he'll come up with runners on. And again OBP issues aside, putting guys like Rollins and Victorino in front of power hitters like Utley, Howard, and Werth neutralizes their speed, since they don't need to steal to get into position for these guys very often, and the power dimension of the good hitters also means that their advancement skills aren't leveraged properly, either -- Ryan Howard doesn't hit many singles that need a guy to book it from first to third.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.353	.269	.357	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: This seems a bit backward to me, too. Howard hitting cleanup vs. LHP but not RHP? Again, it's a function of a) getting the best hitters on top and alternating R/L guys, and b) a true estimate of platoon splits, as covered recently regarding Howard by MGL and more generally in my Book-inspired Platoon Splits Project (which I need to come back to after the season when I have the time to see how I did). Werth is projected to be the best hitter vs. LHP, so hitting him cleanup might have made sense, but then that mean putting Howard #2 or #1 in front of a relatively low-power RHH like Ben Francisco or Carlos Ruiz, and if there's one thing Howard doesn't do well, it's run the bases. I went back and forth on Utley vs. Werth in the #1 and #2 spots, but finally settled on Werth leading off because this puts Utley (the superior basestealer and baserunner) closer to the less powerful hitters like Francisco and Ruiz (and without estimating them specifically, Utley's platoon splits at a glance are pretty small). When all else fails, give the best hitters the most PAs. Ibanez projects as terrible vs. LHP according to these methods, but having Victorino and Rollins #6 and #7 (they could go in either order, really) gives good basestealers in front of him and the bad-even-with-the-platoon advantage Feliz, which, as I've noted many times, is a better use of their stealing abililty than putting them in front of Utley and Howard.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Yes, I do think (at least according to the James projections), that without the DH the Phillies shold be platooning Francisco and Ibanez, and that's without even taking defense and baserunning into account. But we aren't here to dispute who should be in the lineup, just how it should be ordered.This is prety much the same, except that without Francisco, I ended having to put Victorino in the #3 spot. I picked him over Ruize because a) the #5 hitter should be better than #3, and b) Ruiz has a problem with GDPs, and Victorino is good at avoiding them. Morever, Werth and (especially) Utley's skill on the bases can help Victorino out despite his lack of power, and Howard's skills are diminished vs. LHP, so Victorino's basestealing isn't as wasted. Rollins could arguably switch with Ruiz here, if you wanted to leverage his basestealing a bit more, but I like it the way it is.

So there it is. I know this I've made some controversial suggestions as far as batting order goes. Maybe I'm too dogmatic about splitting up lefties, but that's what I've gone with. It's fun to see the different ways of thinking about it, at least I hope it is for you guys. These things are a lot of work, but a lot of fun, so I hope people get a bit of entertainment out of it and aren't just irritated.

I can't wait to see Manuel lead off Utley tonight!

Who Actually Had the Biggest Comeback in 2009?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:18:43 -0000

It's award season, and the NL and AL Comeback Awards winners were announced earlier today. Congrats to Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals and Aaron Hill of the Blue Jays for winning the award. It is supposed to go to the players that "re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season."

I decided to take the balloting results and compare the player's WAR from this year, a recent low year and a recent high. Then. I took the total swing in WAR from the high to the low to this season's WAR value . For example Aaron Hill had 3.5 WAR in 2007, 0.5 in 2008 and then 4.2 this year for a total swing of 6.7 WAR ((3.5 WAR -0.5WAR)+(4.2 WAR - 0.5 WAR).

NL Comeback Award Comparison

Here is a comparison of the vote getters in the NL:

Voting Rank	Name and Team	High Year	Previous High (WAR)	Low Year	Lowest Between High and 2009 (WAR)	2009 WAR	Total Swing in WAR
1	Chris Carpenter, STL	2006	5.2	2007	0.2	5.6	10.4
2	Yovani Gallardo, MIL	2007	2.6	2008	0.4	2.8	4.6
3	Josh Johnson, FLA	2006	2.5	2007	0.2	5.3	7.4
4	Todd Helton, COL	2007	4.9	2008	1.5	3.5	5.4
5	Aaron Boone, HOU	2007	0.3	2008	-0.2	-0.3	0.4
6	Pedro Martinez, PHI	2007	1.2	2008	0.1	0.6	1.6
7	Luis Castillo, NYM	2007	2.4	2008	0.6	1.4	2.6
8	Jeff Weaver, LAD	2007	0.9	2008	0	0.6	1.5
9	Jonny Gomes, CIN	2007	0	2008	-1.2	0.8	3.2
10	Peter Moylan, ATL	2007	0.6	2008	0	1.5	2.1
11	Mike MacDougal, WSH	2007	0.2	2008	0.1	-0.2	-0.2

NL Observations and the AL Comparisons after the jump

NL observations:

The voters got the winner correct.
The voters also got the next four correct with the exception of Gallardo being a little high
The wasn't a whole lot to choose from after the first 4.
In two cases the players WAR value did not increase in 2009 from the previous years. In one case, Aaron Boone had open heart surgery this off season and even getting on the field should warrant some votes. I have no clue how Mike MacDougal end up with votes.

AL Comeback Award Comparison

Now here is a comparison of the vote getters in the AL:

Voting Rank	Name and Team	High Year	Previous High (WAR)	Low Year	Lowest Between High and 2009 (WAR)	2009 WAR	Total Swing in WAR
1	Aaron Hill, TOR	2007	3.5	2008	0.5	4.2	6.7
2	Victor Martinez, BOS	2007	5.1	2008	0.9	4.8	8.1
3	Michael Cuddyer, MIN	2007	2.1	2008	-0.2	2.1	4.6
4	Jorge Posada, NYY	2007	7.1	2008	0.8	4	9.5
5	Russell Branyan, SEA	2006	1.1	2007	0.5	2.8	2.9
6	Scott Podsednik, CWS	2005	1.4	2006	-0.5	1.5	3.9
7	Juan Rivera, LAA	2006	2.7	2008	-0.7	3.5	7.6
8	Rajai Davis, OAK	2007	1	2008	0.6	3.5	3.3
9	Andruw Jones, TEX	2007	3.6	2008	-0.9	0.7	6.1
10	Travis Hafner, CLE	2007	2.2	2008	-0.8	1.1	4.9
11	Fernando Rodney, DET	2007	0.7	2008	0.4	0.3	0.2

Observations on the voting for the AL Comeback Award:

The winner here did not have the largest swing in WAR, Hill was actually 4 in total swing behind Posada, Martinez, and Rivera.
The swing values in the AL were much more than in the NL on average. There was only one swing value of less than 2.9 in the AL, but 6 in the NL.
I need to look back over 5 years to see the comeback of Scott Podsednik. He has the following WAR values from 2005 to 2009: 1.4, -0.5,-0.1, -0.4, 1.5
Fernando Rodney, like Aaron Boone and Mike MacDougal got votes for actually being worse this year than last year.
There seems to be a lot of love for Russell Branyan despite being having the 9th highest swing in WAR.

Billy Beane Exclusive Athletics Nation Interview: Season End 2009 Part I

Tyler Bleszinski — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 14:00:46 -0000

The A's did make some strides forward in 2009 despite finishing with nearly an identical record the past three seasons. They have a good core of young players who appear primed to only get better, and despite the last week of stumbling baseball, the team was one of baseball's surprises in the second half.

With Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Wallace, Daric Barton, Rajai Davis and the rest of the team coming back with more experience, 2010 is looking up for us green and gold faithful. Billy Beane is exceptionally busy wrapping up the season and already starting to look ahead, so I appreciate him taking the time out to chat with me this past week. This is the first part of the interview. I will be running the second part first thing Tuesday morning. Enjoy.

Blez: When I talked to you in spring training it looked like you felt like this team could've gone either way. You were hesitant to say it was going to excel. You didn't seem to know what you were going to have.

Billy Beane: If you point to something right away, we had so many young and unproven starting pitchers in the rotation. You just didn't really know how they were going to react and it's hard to predict where you're going to go if you don't know where your pitching is. I think when we spoke it was right around the time when we were just becoming aware of some of the injury possibilities that ended up happening. The two most obvious were Duchscherer and Joey Devine. When you have so many rookie pitchers getting their first taste of the major leagues, it's very difficult to predict where you're going to go.

Blez: What would your assessment on 2009 be then? We're closing in on the final week of the season here.

Beane: It almost feels like two different seasons. I'm very pleased with the second half. I think we've played pretty well and we've surprised some people because we've played so well in particular after some of the bigger name players weren't here anymore. In particular the Holliday trade, and we've made other changes. But I think the most encouraging thing has been the way we've performed in the second half as well as the development of some of these players who I think are going to be here for a long time, which was first and foremost our goal this year. It's been the last couple of years that we've been trying to build that foundation of young talent that people can look forward to seeing for the next few years and creating a winning core for the foreseeable future. For the first time you really started to see that. You can look at some of the young players like Andrew Bailey who made the All Star team as a closer. Certainly Brett Anderson's performance and Trevor Cahill's improvement. Gio (Gonzalez) has made progress this year. Raj Davis, on the offensive side, has come on and shown himself to be a really good major league centerfielder. Ryan Sweeney as well as Kurt Suzuki's continued development and I know I'm going to leave people out. Cliff Pennington has performed very well in the second half. I think if you look around the diamond you'll see that these guys are going to be here for a while and they've proven over the second half that they can perform at the major league level. And as we continue to add guys from our minor league system, guys who are highly thought of, you can start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Blez: You mentioned people being surprised that the team picked up and became a better team when you ultimately traded away or got rid of some of the "name" guys like Holliday, Giambi and Cabrera. Some of those guys we all expected more from at the beginning of the year. Is there a point where you might've said, "Maybe instead of bringing in some of those guys, maybe I should've just started with the youth at the beginning of the year and perhaps they would've matured and gotten to that point?"

Beane: That's a good question. Personally I always like the idea of if you're trying to rebuild to just got full bore and do it. But there's also a balance as well. In fairness you have to understand a guy like Cliff Pennington probably benefitted from going back and starting the year in Triple-A. What we've seen this year even relative to last year is that he was much more ready to come up this year and contribute than last year. I don't think you could say that that would've been the case in April. But it's a fair question and certainly one that you think about. I do think there is something to be said about having some of those older guys in here so as not to put the pressure on those younger guys to perform. When we made some of these trades to make the commitment to the younger guys it was a different point in the season and I think it allowed them to relax and realize they were going to be able to play every day. They would realize they could make a mistake and still be in there. I'm not sure that that would've been the case had you started that way from the outset. You might've had a different mindset from the younger players. Keep in mind that some of the holdover guys are young too. Those players are different ones than they were in April. Even though we see Kurt Suzuki as the established guy, he's a guy that continues to improve as is Ryan Sweeney. I think having some of those veteran guys gave them the opportunity to continue some of that development. When the baton was handed off to them, they were more prepared then they were in April.

Blez: You were talking about some of those veteran guys you traded away. And obviously it hurt the team quite a bit that Matt Holliday didn't come close to his career numbers with the A's. There was speculation on AN, everything from he knew he was a short timer here in Oakland so he didn't care, to league adjustment, to the adjustment to not being at Coors Field. Why do you think he didn't come close to what he's doing now in St. Louis?

Beane: The first thing I can put to rest is that he didn't care because that was absolutely not the case. Matt was an absolute professional here. If anything he was probably guilty of putting too much pressure on himself than people know publicly. Matt had impeccable work habits and was a pro. There was probably a bit of an adjustment period. But keep in mind even right before he went to St. Louis, he was really starting to get going here.

Blez: His numbers definitely were going up before he was dealt.

Beane: Yeah you could see he was starting to feel more like himself and get it going. The fact that he took off when he went there was not a surprise. Certainly the lineup to hit in around Pujols, I think it became a perfect environment for him. I think had Matt stayed here he would've returned to his career numbers and I think he was headed that way before he left. I can tell you this. He was an absolute professional when he was here and any assertion that he didn't care is not true.

Blez: How do you find enough at bats for someone like Landon Powell who seems like he should get more regular playing time? Do you go into the offseason thinking about how you get more time for him despite the fact that Kurt Suzuki is a fantastic catcher, does a great job with the pitchers and is great offensively? Do you start to look at DH or a different position?

Beane: There's been times where Bob (Geren) has tried to do that. Early in the year he played a few games at first base and it's not something everyone can do immediately on an everyday basis. The other thing too is there were times that Landon was slowed down because he had nagging hamstring issues at different points during the season. Even though there are times when Bob wanted to get his bat in the lineup, Landon's body wouldn't allow him to. One of the things we're going to focus on with Landon is making sure he's as physically prepared as possibly to handle even more than he has. But we see it as a good problem to have. To be able to put in a catcher behind Kurt who has the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark but is also a good defensive catcher is a great luxury to have. But the fact is, and you alluded to this, Kurt Suzuki is one of the top catchers in the game. Not only that but he's very much become a leader on the team so he's going to get the bulk of time, yet we are aware of the amount of production Landon has given us in his brief amount of time. I think the goal is ultimately to get him more at bats, but for the time being, Kurt is going to get the bulk of them. Part of Landon's responsibility is to make sure he can handle more playing time than he has because that hasn't always been the case this year.

Blez: When someone like Rajai Davis has what looks like a "career year," how do you assess whether a reasonable projection for next year is more like what he's doing, or more like what he's done before? How does the team go about trying to figure this out?

Beane: In some sense you have to take it at face value. He was with Pittsburgh and then San Francisco and now us. He's never really been given a full blown opportunity to prove himself as an everyday player and now that he is putting up the numbers he is, the first question is, can he keep this up? But if you go back and look at what Raj did in the minor leagues, he was a good minor league hitter so it shouldn't come as a total shock. You're not talking about a guy who was a .220 hitter in the minor leagues. He was a good player when he played. Right now we just see it as a guy who has hit well in the minors who has finally been given the opportunity and is carrying it forward. We're going to enjoy it and go with it and try not to overthink. Anyone who has seen Raj with us over the last year and three quarters, when he's played, he's played well. He's one of the unique major league players who continues to just get better. We're going to take it at face value and he's done enough to show that he's a good enough player to play every day at center field. He's such a weapon on the base paths and he gives you such a unique dynamic. If you look at the stolen bases he's had without even having a full season, it isn't out of the question that next year you could see stealing 65-70 bases.

Blez: You reference stolen bases and obviously it's something that has changed quite a bit about the A's. I think you're in the top three in stolen bases and Raj is one of the league leaders in that number and he really makes the overall team number larger. Did you make a decision to be more aggressive on the base paths because of the lack of power? Did you think, we've got to get some offense some way?

Beane: I really think it's Bob (Geren) trying to take the personnel he has and trying to do the best he can with it. He's playing to the strengths. We don't have a lot of power and it's certainly something in order to be a more complete offensive team it's something we need to get. In a perfect world you have both guys who can steal bases and guys who can hit it out of the ballpark. As much as anything, it's Bob really trying to take advantage of what he has. Early in the year we were having trouble scoring runs and he wanted to create a mindset of being aggressive and when you have a guy like Raj doing it the way he's doing it, it has a tendency of rubbing off on everybody. There's a sense of confidence guys have when they get on the bases and they look to steal bases. They're looking for that steal sign. It also has a carryover effect with the rest of the base running. We've been by and large a very good baserunning team and it was just a matter of Bob looking at his personnel and he thought that this is what we're going to have to do to scrape some runs out. The second half we've actually swung the bats really well also and if you combine that with the aggressive baserunning, that's why you're seeing a lot higher run totals. The one thing it really has done is just given the guys a more aggressive mindset. They realize they're not going to win a whole lot of ballgames by getting into home run hitting contests. I give a lot of credit to Bob and his staff as they've really scratched and clawed their way through nine innings of these games.

Blez: Two questions. Do you believe in that the stolen bases must be a 75 percent success rate or higher or it's counterproductive and second of all, do you believe that someone like Rajai Davis actually puts additional pressure on the pitcher? The assumption is that the opposition pitcher somehow loses that concentration because they're so worried about the baserunner stealing.

Beane: There is no question that if a guy like Raj gets on base, everyone is aware that he is on base and there is going to be some adjustments to how quickly the pitcher might deliver the pitch and the catcher might call for a different pitch than he otherwise would. So the game calling might change as well. I'm sure you could quantify it. I'm not aware of exactly how to, but you can certainly tell from a game situation how teams react differently if you're willing to steal a base so I do think it does have an impact. The Angels have certainly done that for years and I think it's had an impact on how teams play them. It creates a tense situation for not just pitchers and catchers but defenders because they have to come up with a perfect play. As far as the rate, there is certainly a point where if you're constantly running and constantly getting thrown out it's definitely having an adverse impact and the demarcation line certainly seems to be around that 70 percent area. You also have to keep in mind that it doesn't take into account some of the things teams are doing to adjust to a team that runs a lot.

Blez: Do you think that the stolen base has become a bit of an unvalued commodity in baseball considering how few there are now, especially in the American League, compared to years past?

Beane: What I think I've noticed more than anything is that a lot of the teams that are running have sophisticated coaching staffs and sophisticated ways to apply the running game, and I might not be accurate and this is just my impression, but those teams seem to be successful more often. The percentage at which they are stealing bases just seems to be higher.

Blez: The Rays are a good example from last year.

Beane: The Red Sox, who historically haven't been a running team the last few years, specifically with (Jacoby) Ellsbury at the top of their lineup. Yet they also seem to steal at a very high rate too. I think everyone is just trying to take advantage by making a percentage play as well. That's why the success rate seems higher. It just seems very much a part of the strategy as opposed to just indiscriminate running for the sake of doing it.

Blez: We talked about Raj and his career year. This is similar to that. Does Daric Barton seem like he's finally arrived or do you need to see more than a month of red-hot hitting, especially given that he's done that before?

Beane: I knew I'd forget somebody earlier and Daric has, certainly this last month, been swinging the bat the way we knew he could and very similarly to the first month he came to the big leagues a couple of years ago. One thing to keep in mind with Daric is that he's still extremely young. He came up at an age when many kids are still in college. He needs to be given the benefit of time and we need to do that. Through no fault of his own, he's had a few nicks here and there that have kind of interrupted his development. The biggest thing is this guy has been a very, very good minor league hitter and at times has shown that he can be a very good major league hitter. With young players, you just can't expect they're always going to be Andrew Bailey where they step on a mound and they never look back. Daric's development path is not unlike a lot of successful major leaguers where he shows you something and maybe he goes through some difficult times. That just means we have to be patient and hope that the guy that you saw in the minor leagues ultimately becomes that guy at the major leagues. This last month Daric has made some huge strides and we're not just excited about next year, but the next five or six years. The other thing you can't forget about Daric is how good a defender he has become. This is a converted catcher in the minor leagues. He's become a very good defensive first baseman, not just with the glove, but when needed, he throws very well from that position too. We're excited and it's great to see. We've always had high hopes for Daric particularly after that first month at the big leagues. He's one of the reasons we've played so well.

Blez: Staying with the first baseman theme, you have Barton, Doolittle and Carter as potential first basemen, but Doolittle and Carter also have some OF experience. What does the first base depth chart look like right now, and which of the players might be more likely to end up elsewhere on the field?

Beane: It's a question we may face and face very soon. We played Chris Carter a little in the outfield in Double-A. He's a good athlete. In a perfect world, all those guys become very good major league hitters and you have to find a spot for them. It potentially is something we're going to face. We're going to have to make a decision and it will be made on production first and foremost. Secondly, as you mentioned, it might be based on somebody's ability to play another position. In Chris' case we started to play him some in the outfield and I've even talked to his agent as he's going to play winter ball in Mexico and we've talked about getting him out there as much as possible because we think he's a good enough athlete to do it. We were doing the same with Doolittle in Triple A this year before he had the knee issue. It is definitely something as we go into the offseason and spring training we're going to have to prepare for.

Blez: Would the power potential for the position have a big deciding difference in who you play at first base? It's obviously still a concern with Daric because he hasn't put up much in terms of power numbers, but Carter has and Doolittle has some pop as well. Or do you maybe weigh the defense first?

Beane: Being a regular major league baseball player, the player brings a lot of elements: it's his baserunning, it's his fielding, it's his power, it's his ability to hit for average and it's when you add those things together usually one player is going to be better than the other even if he's deficient in one area because he may do one thing very well. It's not something we have to answer yet and it's definitely getting closer. We think all these guys are major league players, it's just about finding a spot for them.

Blez: What will most determine the timeline for when Chris Carter is called up to Oakland? Could he win a job out of spring training if he looks ready?

Beane: It's probably a little early to answer that. The only thing I'll say is that we wanted to give Chris some time at Triple-A and give him some confidence going into next year thinking he's seen the highest level of the minors and he could perform there. I think he did a great job in the few weeks he was there. It's just too early to answer that. I don't like creating definites at this point when you don't need to. A player usually decides when he's ready for the major leagues by performing at the highest level and at that point there's nowhere for him to go but up. Some of these guys are getting close to that.

Blez: Based on what you have seen so far, what's the current thinking on Brett Wallace's chances of being a major league every day third baseman?

Beane: We're going to leave Brett over there. He's played one full season, a total of a season and a half of professional baseball as he's moved very, very quickly because of his bat. We're going to give him the benefit of some time over there defensively and particularly given the long-term need we're going to have at that position, it would behoove us to give him every opportunity to give him the development time defensively to see if he can play the position because it would definitely be a great fit if he can play third base in the big leagues based on the personnel we have here and have coming up. It would be absolutely perfect. Especially given that Chavy (Eric Chavez) is coming into the last year of his contract, the chance that Brett with some further refining would be a very nice fit for us there long term. I guess the question is, is it still a work in progress? And we're going to give him every opportunity to prove he can play that position.

Blez: What do you do about third base, at least short term? I'm not even sure where Eric Chavez stands at this point or if he's a part of the conversation. I've read reports that he could do permanent damage to himself if he plays again. Where does Eric stand right now?

Beane: From a rehab standpoint, he's doing very well. The good thing about him having surgery when he did is that when we get into the offseason, he should have as normal an offseason as any other player. He should be able to start resuming normal baseball activities when everyone else starts. The time that he's had has been good. I think we have to be realistic including Eric because he's faced a number of surgeries and he's been more disappointed than anyone that he hasn't been able to come back completely. We have to be realistic on him coming back and have some short-term preparation as it applies to that position going into next year. I also think that Eric, given his talent level, deserves the respect and the opportunity to get healthy and given the opportunity to get back to doing what he does best. In short, we're going to try to prepare for both sides of the equation.

Blez: Where does Travis Buck stand with the team now as he seems to be caught in an almost purgatory state now between Triple-A and being up with the team but not really seeing much regular playing time? Is it the type of thing where he needs to get in there for a while to get his confidence back as he's seemed to have hit well in Triple-A?

Beane: The one thing about major league baseball is that it's pretty Darwinian. If you hit, you're going to play. Raj is probably the best example of that. When Raj got a chance to play he hit. Since he's been playing, he's looked around saying I'm not going to let anyone else play because I know I have to perform here in order to keep myself in the lineup. Most recently, Ryan Sweeney has done the same thing. With all players, not just Travis, it's ultimately going to be based on performance. Travis has had a couple of years in a row, unfortunately, where he's had concussions that haven't enabled him to even play regularly at Triple A. He's missed some time there because of these injuries. We still think very highly of Travis for the same reasons that most people did when he first came up. We think he's got the talent to be a good major league player. At this point it's when he's given the chance he has to take advantage of it and ultimately hopefully avoiding some of those injuries he's had the last couple of years. But we still think very highly of him and one of the best things about Travis is that when he first came up one of the areas we wanted him to work on was his defense and that was addressed to him and he did. He's improved significantly in the outfield and it was an area of weakness when he first came up. Ultimately when he gets to this level it will be based on performance.

Coming tomorrow: Beane delves into the pitching, the status of the injured A's pitchers and how he sees 2010 shaping up.

Morrow One-Hits the A's in Forgettable Game

baseballgirl — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 05:00:12 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

I hope Spring Training is better for me.

Browse more photos »

Well, there isn't much to say about tonight's game, unless Morrow is on your fantasy team.

In the fourth inning, Rajai Davis hit a ground ball to the shortstop and beat it out for an infield single. The A's collected two back-to-back walks in the eighth, and in the ninth inning, with two outs, Landon Powell singled to right.

That was the entire extent of the A's offense tonight as Brandon Morrow nearly tossed a perfect game.

This is usually the point where I make fun of the A's offense, but I just can't this time. I don't know how to tell you this, but the A's just flat got out-pitched tonight by Brandon Morrow, who was throwing the game of his life. He would finish up with 8 innings pitched, one hit, two walks, and nine strikeouts. He was dominant in every way, and the A's never had a chance to score in this game, much less to win.

The victory tonight by Seattle gave them a winning season (pretty impressive coming off of last year). They racked up seven runs tonight, all but one of them coming off Mortensen, who allowed six runs on eight hits (no walks or strikeouts). I don't think that start was what he was looking for to close out the season. I did notice he looked calm.

Mortensen was relieved by Kilby, Gray, Meloan, and Henry Rodriguez, who all pitched well (Gray allowed the only run on a solo HR). Rodriguez hit the gun at 100 MPH, while Morrow was dealing around 97.

The A's and M's try it again tomorrow night; 7:05 start time.

Who Do You Want To Be A 2010 Athletic?

baseballgirl — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 13:00:17 -0000

HAPPY BIRTHDAY to my baseballdad! Love you!

AN General Consensus on 2010 starting pitching: Weed out the best starters from this season and call it a rotation. See if Duchscherer can/will come back. Maybe add a veteran starter.

AN General Consensus on 2010 bullpen: It's one of the best in the league. It is unlikely that a reliever FA is needed. Jettison Casilla. (Side note: ANDREW BAILEY FOR ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!)

AN General Consensus on 2010 offense: It's fairly awful and is missing several pieces. You know, like hitters.

As much as I love Rajai Davis, never has the phrase "sell high" been more apropos. Unless we really believe he can hit .360 for half a season ever again in his career, it might be worth entertaining some offers. If not, we have a very fast leadoff or number two hitter for next season. The A's will also have to make a decision on Adam Kennedy (and third base), and it's possible they aren't fully committed to Jack Cust and/or Scott Hairston as full-time players next season. Have the A's found the shortstop answer in Cliff Pennington (and we're assuming that 30 year old Free Agent Bobby Crosby will finally leave Oakland) or are they still searching for something they haven't had since Miguel Tejada (coincidentally, who is a FA of his own this year)?

So who is out there for the A's to sign? View the 2010 Free Agent list. Some thoughts:

First of all, I would like to see the A's sign a veteran pitcher, even though I know the offense is the pressing concern. I have decided that John Lackey is too expensive, too elite, and too sought after for the A's to sign, and I liked Randy Wolf right up until he had an amazing season for the Dodgers this year, putting him out of reach, as well.

If we're going to have to play the game where we try to get someone on the (relative) cheap just before they have an amazing year, I would suggest one of the following:

Ben Sheets (MIL)

At 31, Sheets has missed the entire 2009 season due to surgery on his right elbow. He appears to be rehabbing with the 2010 goal in mind, and his injury may drive down his price, and his suitors. He is coming off a 13-9, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP performance in the 2008 season, with a career 3.72 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Heady numbers for a veteran who could anchor our young pitching staff.

Brad Penny (SF)

At 32, Penny was subpar for Boston in the 2009 season, and has been very good for the Giants in 4 starts. He has a lifetime 4.17 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and his inconsistency might make him affordable. He has had some very good seasons, and has shown recently that he might be able to replicate them.

Erik Bedard (SEA)

At 31, Bedard was supposed to have been another elite starter in the Seattle organization for the 2008-2009 seasons, but injuries (most recently a labrum tear) have limited him to just 15 starts both last season and 2009. With a career 3.71 ERA and 1.32 WHIP (and a couple of elite seasons to show for it), Bedard would be an awesome pickup, IF he can stay healthy. His price will probably reflect the last two years, bringing him down into the A's range.

Now, what do we do about offense?

First of all, it is worth noting that the A's have both Chris Carter and Brett Wallace primed for a 2010 appearance. Buster Olney in his ESPN insider article gives the money quote from BP on the first-baseman Carter:

After leading the minor leagues with 288 total bases in 2008, Carter upped the ante a bit this year with 310, in no small part because he raised his batting average from .259 to .329. The A's have been desperate for any kind of real production from the first-base position for years, and they'll take a long look at Carter in the spring to see whether he is ready to be the answer -- and whether they can live with his hands of stone at first base. -- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

As for Wallace, that depends on if Chavez is truly done with baseball. I won't believe he can play until he is actually out on the field, and it's late summer and he's still playing. Despite the fact that Chavez is actually signed through next season, all signs seem to point to Plan B: a healthy third baseman that is not a fill-in (love you, Kennedy!). At least for next season, Wallace could play there, if the A's don't have a better option other than starting his clock.

Carlos Delgado (NYM)

The 37 year old first baseman is a free agent coming off an injury-shortened season (hip surgery) and could play first /DH for the A's in the role that Giambi was supposed to fill in 2009. He's two years younger than Giambi, and is still considered a real power threat. He is only 27 homeruns away from 500, so it's likely he wants to continue his career.

Aubrey Huff (DET)
Huff is having the season that no free agent wants in his last contract year. His batting average is 60 points lower than his 2008 numbers, and he's hit half as many homeruns (from 32 to 15) in the same number of at-bats in 2009. Still, Huff's track record suggests that he's a streaky hitter, and could rebound with a solid, if not great season. At 33, he can easily fill the role of 1B/DH (and can also play some 3rd) and if all goes well, could fill a power spot in the lineup. With his 2009 numbers, Huff will likely be undervalued by teams seeking power, and he may be available for a team like the A's.

Vladimir Guerrero (LAA)

At 34, it's likely that Guerrero has finished his years with the Angels, and even more obvious that he needs an AL home, since he looks to turn into the classic DH. A true Angel, yes, and would probably never agree to come to Oakland, but he can hit.

Nick Johnson (FLA)

Labeled as "injury-prone" for the last few years, the 31-year-old Johnson has had a great year for Florida this season at first base. His injury history may keep his price down, but this year shows he can still play.

Adrian Beltre (SEA)

Although discounted a notch due to his injury history, the 30 year old Beltre is still a Boras client, so it might not be worth the hassle, but the thirty year old still might well have life left in his career, even after a dismal performance this year in Seattle. Beltre was fantastic in Los Angeles in 2004, but never really panned out for the Mariners over the last five years, and has been plagued with injuries during that time. He comes with risk, but also a strong (and fairly young) upside.

Jerry Hairston Jr

He can play all three infield positions, and can also spell in outfield as needed.

Chone Figgins (LAA)

Will probably be too high profile for the A's, but the 30-year-old has all of the running numbers that the A's (might) be playing for in their recent shift. Again, he's a true Angel, but the A's could do a lot worse at third base.

Hank Blalock (TEX)

The 29 year old first baseman's price will probably be one the A's can afford. He has hit 25 homeruns in his 120 games this season, but his average and OBP are way down. He only played 58 games in 2007 and 65 in 2008, and he is four years removed from his great 2003-5 seasons. The question will be a) can he stay healthy and b) can he replicate the mid-2000's instead of the late ones?

And finally, we come to two of our own. Would you welcome back either Jermaine Dye or Miguel Tejada back to the A's?

Jermaine Dye (CWS)

Although the A's appear to be loaded in the outfield, Dye could be the kind of player that the A's would make room for. Pricey, yes, but still a legitimate power threat, and coming off a down season (where he still hit 27 homeruns).

Miguel Tejada (HOU)

Although his power has dropped considerably over the last few years, this 34 36 year old can still play some baseball. He's hitting .313 on the 2009 campaign, and can still play a little shortstop.

Discuss.

Muppet Thoughts

grover — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 06:30:14 -0000

The minor league season is over and the Arizona Fall League has yet to begin. Baseball America has begun their League Top 20 lists but they haven’t hit anywhere where the A’s have qualifying individuals. Winter ball is months away (although today it seems as if winter itself is close at hand) and the A’s are being their typical tight-lipped selves regarding the goings on in Instructs. So don’t expect much in the way of minor league discussion in today’s write up. What will I talk about?

Glad you asked.

Next year’s Free Agent options, the current 2010 payroll and some interesting service time tidbits, why using FIP or any other metric to argue Cahill’s place in Oakland’s 2010 rotation is missing the point, a moment of praise to Rajai Davis’ base running skills and… I don’t know… whatever I bloody well want.

If that sounds interesting to you then I’ll see you on the flip side.

Let’s talk about money.

Money, money, money, money, money, money.

Let’s face it, we live in a capitalist society and (most of us on AN, anyways) in a country with a WTF?!?! economy that makes risky investments a rather unattractive idea. The San Diego Padres, the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs are just 3 recent examples of how quickly an organization’s financial situation can change. The 2009 A’s opened up the season with a $62.3 million payroll and we know that Wolff and Fisher don’t consider the team to be a public philanthropy. The Oakland A’s are a business, and businessmen expect to turn a profit. It is difficult to turn a profit when you have no customers (I learned that in my college economics class) and the A’s have drawn fewer paying customers than any other team in major league baseball. While revenue sharing and national media deals will provide a solid chunk of money for 2010 the A’s do not draw a great deal of income through local TV or stadium licensing, meaning the loss of approximately a quarter million attendees could have an impact on the amount of money the A’s have to spend on player payroll in 2010.

Looking at the current roster and trying to anticipate the arbitration cases of 8 different players, it appears to me that the A’s have $38 million committed in salary to next year’s roster. (Keep in mind that I’ve tried to pad that figure, ‘cause it’s always easier to pocket any left over cash than it is to find more cash when the bills are due. Also, I’ve got a bit of a thing for round numbers and counting by quarters.) Let’s look at those arbitration eligible players. Eric Munson and Edgar Gonzalez might be best described as fringe level big league players, but the only way the A’s could insure that they could retain their services for next season would be to offer them arbitration. Otherwise, the A’s would need to release them and try to bid for their services as free agents. I think that is the more likely scenario, as the A’s should be more interested in finding cheap vets they can sign to minor league deals than in keeping replacement-level talent at inflated rates.

Santiago Casilla is eligible for arbitration for the first time but the combination of his injuries, his ineffectiveness and the depth of power RH arms in the A’s farm system leads me to believe that AKA Jairo Garcia will be moving on to another team. Joey Devine is coming back from season ending elbow surgery and that will probably keep his 2010 salary down, although I am still penciling in a raise to $750K. Michael Wuertz is due a huge pay bump, at least doubling his $1.1 million 2009 salary. He didn’t get many opportunities to close and arbiters tend to be distracted by shiny things like saves, so I’m figuring he’ll earn a $2.5 million salary for next year. Before I move on to the arby-eligible hitters, I want to point out that Dana Eveland is no longer looking at arbitration for next season. His early season demotion hit his service time tally very hard and he simply doesn’t have the days in to qualify for arbitration. This means the A’s have the option to bring Eveland back at $420K next season. The only downside is it looks like (assuming I’ve counted things right) that the A’s used Eveland’s last option in 2009 and if he doesn’t pitch well enough to make the Opening Day big league roster next year the A’s would have to expose him to waivers before they could send him to the minors. Which wouldn’t be a great loss, but it is a factor to consider before deciding to invest the time and effort in giving Eveland another chance next Spring. Perhaps the coaching and innings would be better served going to another option?

Scott Hairston hasn’t performed like the A’s had hoped since they acquired him from the Padres but his early season numbers will insure a pay increase for next season. I think his late season injuries and his struggling 2nd half performance will prevent him from doubling his salary but I can see him collecting $2 million next year. Rajai Davis has only a half season of excellence to make him some money and I don’t think that UZR gets factored into the arbitration process but 40 SB is sexy and shiny. I expect Davis to more than quadruple his 2009 salary and earn a $1.75 million payday. Jack Cust leads the A’s in HR and BB but also in K’s and is a distant 2nd in RBI. UZR might not factor in the decision making process but general defensive suckitude does. I think Cust goes from $2.8 million to $4.25 million next season, although I wouldn’t blink twice if that figure went up another half million. But my official guess is 4 and a quarter.

Altogether, a $38 million commitment to the 2010 payroll.

That means the A’s have some spending money next year. But where to spend it and how much is there to spend? I doubt the A’s are going to bump the payroll beyond the $62.3 million figure from 2009 and in fact I expect to see it drop by roughly $10 million. Where am I getting that low-50’s number? Call it a gut reaction to the state of the team and the AL West, plus the lack of intriguing free agent options. The A’s are looking at a serious influx of position talent by the end of next season and it seems unlikely that the team would invest heavily in free agent vets that could potentially block the young talent and/or become expensive bench options. There are obvious holes in the roster but little in the way of value to be had in the current free agent crop.

One of the places where a major investment and change would be welcomed (by the fans, anyway) is at 3rd base. Eric Chavez is in the last guaranteed year of his contract and has barely made it on to the field over the last 3 years. There are at least 4 credible options on the free agent market that could give the A’s an immediate boost at the hot corner. Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins all offer the right mix of offense and defense that teams demand at 3rd base these days. DeRosa offers some defensive versatility and enough bat that his team will be looking to find a place to play him. The downside to DeRosa is he’s a Type A free agent and he turns 35 next February, meaning his decline could come swift and soon. Glaus is coming off a shoulder injury but should be ready to go next Spring and at 33 might be looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish himself before going for 1 last big payday. He’s got enough glove to handle 3rd base should Chavez be unable to make it onto the field and his bat would play well at 1st base in the unlikely scenario that Chavez is healthy.

Figgins is intriguing because of his versatility and out of all the big ticket 3rd base options he’s actually healthy! He’ll be 32 next season and is probably looking for a 4 year deal. The cool thing about Figgins is you don’t have to worry about him blocking some stud prospect’s path, he’s got the athleticism and experience to play almost anywhere on the field. The downside is he’s a Type A free agent (yeah, me loving that 2nd round pick) and his name has been mentioned with so many teams that if even half of them are truly interested in him the A’s would be in a bidding war to land him. Beltre is battling injuries this year but he doesn’t turn 31 until the beginning of next season. Still, he picked a bad year to hit like crap. His glove is still top notch but the reality is the A’s gave up on Jack Hannahan (a quality defender at 3rd base and according to UZR a near equal to Beltre) to keep Adam Kennedy’s bat in the line-up. It’s going to take at least a 3 year deal to land Beltre (I’m guessing 3/$27 million but I could be way off) and when you think about it, the A’s would be paying all that cash for Beltre’s bat. Another thing to consider, if you believe in Brett Wallace the 3rd baseman at all, signing Beltre creates a problem. Adrian earns most of his value via the glove; his bat doesn’t play well at 1st base. You could, of course, slide Wallace to 1st base but that defeats the whole idea of him playing at the hot corner. You better decide where Brett Wallace fits in the field before paying Adrian Beltre serious coin.

There are a couple other 3rd base options that get brought up around AN on occasion. Adam Kennedy made a decent stop gap option at 3rd base this season and the A’s have already said they’d consider bringing him back. Akinori Iwamura is one of those under-rated gems that everyone knows about and thus the pursuit will resemble a piranha feeding frenzy. Joe Crede is on his way out of Minnesota but he’ll be 32 and is heading towards his 2nd back surgery and are you out of your fucking mind?! 32 and double back surgery describes Eric Chavez, that’s not a pairing we should wish the A’s to make.

If the A’s are looking to make a free agent splash, the value looks to be in the starting pitching ranks. If the D’backs decide to bid bon voyage to Brandon Webb I say the A’s need to go all in and offer him a big money deal to bring him to Oakland. Yes, he hurt his shoulder and missed almost the entire season but there was no damage to the labrum and forget about any loss of awesomeness due to changing leagues… his groundball and strike out tendencies will play well in the AL. Barring that admittedly less-than-likely scenario, Justin Duchscherer and Brett Myers might make great candidates for 1 year deals to re-establish themselves in 2010. I mean no disrespect when I say that Duke needs to get his head on straight before trying to pitch again next season. They have said they’d be interested in bringing him back next season but the onus is on Justin getting his life in order. Myers needs to get healthy and I’m guessing a change of scenery would do him good. At 29 he’s still young enough to have more than a few solid seasons if he can get his act together.

But do the A’s really need to invest potentially limited funds into the starting rotation? I mean, adding a healthy Brandon Webb is pretty much a no-brainer, especially if you can get him for a discounted rate and not the $20+ million annual C.C. Sabathia is getting from the Yankees. The answer seems to lie in how you feel about Trevor Cahill. If you hear his name and think rainbows and puppies than you’re probably disinclined to spend free agent dollars on a big ticket pitcher. If hearing "Cahill" causes you to grind your teeth than you’re probably wondering why I didn’t list Jason Marquis as a viable free agent option. Me? I think puppies.

I’ve heard the arguments for sending Cahill down to AAA to start next season. I personally feel that the best place for Cahill to work on his breaking stuff is at the big league level, however if the coaching staff disagrees then I’m more than happy to yield to their wisdom. But I’m willing to bet Curt Young isn’t spending his time on AN arguing about how Trevor Cahill needs AAA seasoning. The principle argument on AN in demoting Cahill centers around his FIP (or tRA but either number will do) courtesy of Fangraphs. FIP, for those who have ignored this discussion so far but are now drawn in by my dulcet tones, is essentially what we could expect the pitcher’s ERA to be if we could factor out team defense. Fangraphs lists 77 starting pitchers as throwing enough innings/pitching enough games to qualify for their statistical leader board. Hit the button to compare FIP and proceed to the last page, ‘cause as of 9/22 Trevor Cahill ranked last in baseball with a FIP of 5.30.

It’s a fairly simple logic stream. You’ve got a young pitcher whom we all knew was being rushed posting the worst luck-independent numbers in baseball. Why waste his service time watching him get his butt kicked when we can send him down to AAA where he belongs? My problem with that logic is, that while Cahill’s FIP score is an accurate interpretation of his 2009 season performance it doesn’t actually reflect how well he pitched this year. We knew that there were going to be days when Cahill was going to get his head handed to him on a platter. The guy had barely any experience outside of A-ball and his mechanics where inconsistent. His minor league performance carried indicators (BB/9 rate) that his game needed more polish. We knew all this and still the A’s put him on their 2009 Opening Day roster.

So why are folks so intent on punishing Cahill for living up to our expectations? I looked at the box scores of the 30 games Cahill had pitched in this season, and in 9 of those contests he either allowed 5 or more runs (earned/unearned, doesn’t matter on the scoreboard) and/or failed to pitch a full 5 innings. I don’t care what metric you choose to believe in, there isn’t a baseball fan among us who wouldn’t say that those games represent a failure on the part of the pitcher in giving his team a chance to win. Cahill earned his bottom feeding FIP in those 9 games. When you look at his record of performance you see a wide variation in outcomes and all FIP does is draw a line and say "this is the average outcome". And there’s nothing wrong with that except that it doesn’t provide a full, detailed picture of what Cahill did this season. So I asked a second question: How good did Trevor Cahill pitch this year?

Unfortunately, before I could answer my question I had to figure out how I was going to answer my question! A few years back someone (I don’t care whom) started talking about Quality Starts. The basic premise was a SP got credited with a QS anytime he lasted a minimum of 6 IP and gave up no more than 3 ER. This would help balance out those days when a pitcher just got crushed and his numbers would (unfairly?, undeservedly?) drag down his overall line. I don’t know if this was in response to Coors Field or maybe because it was the Steroid era, but while the basic idea had some merit the parameters sucked. 3 ER in 6 IP? That’s a 4.50 ERA, not exactly what I call quality from my SP.

So I decided to apply the same basic concept to the 77 SP on Fangraphs’ leader board pages, only this time I made the rules more strict. No more than 2 runs (earned/unearned count the same on the scoreboard) over a minimum of 6 IP. Then I decided to add an extra tier, so 3 runs allowed over a minimum of 7 full IP would also count on the Good side. Then I went over the game logs of every qualifying SP (further explaining the 9/22 cut-off date) and simply added up how many HQS (High Quality Starts… yeah, I expect a point deduction from the Russian judge for my lack of creativity) to see how well Mr. Worst-FIP-in-Baseball pitched.

Trevor Cahill pitched 14 HQS, tying him with 8 other SP including Cole Hamels, John Lackey, Scott Feldman and Yovani Gallardo.

14 HQS is also higher score than the performances from Andy Pettite, Barry Zito, Brett Anderson, Carlos Zambrano, Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, Rich Porcello, Roy Oswalt and 18 other big league SP who posted better FIP than Trevor Cahill.

I am not saying that this means Trevor Cahill is a better pitcher than all these guys. I am saying that on the days when Cahill’s talent outweighed his inexperience he pitched like a legitimate big league SP. And here’s the thing about inexperience, it goes away after a time. The 174 (and counting) IP that Cahill has accumulated this year with the A’s has been an invaluable learning experience for him and it should make him less prone to the epic disasters he created 9 times as a raw and unready rookie. Trevor Cahill is far from a finished project and it may be that next year the A’s will decide that the best place for him to work on his breaking ball or his mechanics or his interview clichés is in Sacramento and I’ll be fine with that.

But don’t tell me his FIP dictates the A’s purchase his bus ticket 6 months in advance.

One last things as this post has gone far longer than I intended… I mentioned this in another thread but I feel it bears repeating. With a little over half-a-season’s worth of playing time Bill James ranks Rajai Davis as the 4th best base runner in all of baseball. This is counting Davis’ stolen base and base running performance, and on a team lacking in power those skills are very important (even in a non-starting role) to help create runs.

Alright, I’ve rattled on long enough. Sorry for the lateness of today’s Front Page write up but folks seemed to be enjoying the Davis and Holliday themed articles already up. Besides, you can’t rush greatness.

Or in my case… my typing.

And thank you for your support.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:09:07 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Mat Gamel is congratulated Mike Cameron and Alcides Escobar after hitting a three-run home run during the sixth inning Sunday. Somehow, I skimmed over 1000 posts on over 300 baseball sites this morning and didn't find a single mention of it.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while getting the baby to smile.

The Brewers have a day off today to reflect on the 2009 home season, which saw them draw 3,037,197 fans, down just 31,000 from last season, despite posting their first losing record at home since 2004. Seth McClung was sad he didn't get to pitch in the last game, but also offered some insight into what the clubhouse is like on the final day at home. And tristarscoop has a photo of the carnage in the final sausage race.

For at least three Brewers, the off day will be an opportunity to see a doctor. Casey McGehee (knee), Mark DiFelice (shoulder) and Mike Burns (shoulder) will all see specialists today in the hope of firming up a prognosis and offseason plan. McGehee isn't sure if he'll need offseason surgery to repair a knee that's been sore for months, DiFelice thinks he'll be fine but wants to make sure, and Burns recently revealed he's had shoulder soreness for several days now.

Has Ken Macha managed his last game at Miller Park? He doesn't seem to think so. If he does return next season he could have a new pitching coach, as the team is reportedly considering making an offer to former A's and Mets coach Rick Peterson (FanShot).

Dave Bush had another rough outing yesterday, including hitting opposing pitcher Joe Blanton with a curveball while Blanton was attempting to bunt. That HBP put him back in the major league lead at 15. That's the fifth highest single season total in Brewer history, which is pretty impressive considering Bush has only pitched 114.1 innings this season. No pitcher has ever plunked more than 16 batters while pitching fewer than 120 innings: Bush will likely get one more start to attempt to become the first.

Josh Butler also pitched in yesterday's game, and his rough outing will be his final Brewer appearance this season. While the team is headed out on the road today, Butler is headed back to Huntsville, then to the Brewers' training facility in Arizona to get ready for the Arizona Fall League.

Speaking of HBPs, Jason Kendall picked up his 247th on Saturday on a pitch from Kyle Kendrick. Plunk Everyone has, among other things, the full list of every player with double initials that has hit Kendall. Unfortunately, plunkings mustn't be weighted very heavily in the Elias rankings, as Kendall is starting to slide down the charts and now sits near the bottom of Type B free agents.

Prince Fielder is up to 42 home runs this season, and Plunk Everyone ranked him third in all of baseball in home run difficulty. Follow the link for an explanation: I think the stat has some merit.

Ryan Braun picked up his 30th home run in dramatic fashion on Saturday night. The Dugout Doctors list him as one of their current players to build a franchise around, but Fake Teams asks if he's getting overhyped.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has ranked pitchers from each level of the minors by out %. In AA, Donovan Hand, Bobby Bramhall and Mike McClendon cracked the top 50, and Dan Meadows, Efrain Nieves, Nick Tyson and Wily Peralta made the top 50 for the Timber Rattlers. No Brevard County Manatees or Nashville Sounds made the lists.
Maverick Lasker (11th) and Max Walla (20th) both appeared on Baseball America's rankings of the top 20 prospects in the Arizona Rookie League this season.

If you're already feeling nostalgic for 2009, Big League Stew has a look back at the Brewers season that was.

Baseball Digest Daily has the Brewers holding steady at #17 in their power rankings.

Around baseball:

Mets: Claimed pitcher Jack Egbert off waivers from the White Sox.

Ever wonder what 2009 would have looked like if the Brewers had somehow found a way to hold on to all the pitchers they've discarded over the years? The rotation might have included Justin Lehr, who was getting ready to give up on baseball before the Reds called him up this season. His numbers as a Red haven't been fantastic, but he might actually be an improvement over some of the guys the Brewers have trotted out there this season.

If the Brewers decide not to retain Mike Cameron this offseason, here's another name to add to the list of potential replacements: Oakland's Rajai Davis. A's Nation thinks the Brewers might be a candidate to acquire him, but also thinks they might be willing to give up Brett Lawrie in exchange, and that's absolutely ridiculous. Elsewhere in center field, Rick Ankiel doesn't expect to return to St. Louis. And if the Brewers end up needing another gritty utility infielder to replace Craig Counsell, Omar Vizquel wants to play another year.

If you're already looking ahead to the fall and winter seasons, get your calendar out: The Baseball Zealot has a list of important dates for you.

Or, if you're looking forward to the hot stove season, here's something for you: Circling the Bases has the top ten free agents for this offseason. Ben Sheets, who still hasn't pitched since last September, checks in at #10. Given his extended absence and his history regarding work ethic and rehab, I'm guessing he's going to show up in someone's camp next spring out of shape and/or unable to pitch. In fact, I'll be surprised if he passes a physical.

Speaking of guys who are out of shape, stop back later today for a special surprise. That's all I'm saying about it.

How long can you extend your career, based purely on the ability to get on base? Ken Griffey Jr. is batting .210 this season for the Mariners, but leads the team in walks and drew the 1300th of his career yesterday. That's over 22 miles in walks.

I have two email addresses that get constant emails from MLB.com which I typically delete without reading. It's good to know that's unavoidable: MLB has reportedly been ignoring requests to be removed from their mailing list. That's always a solid business practice.

Finally, after months of rumor and panic, we have a definitive list of the symptoms associated with Royals Fever.

Can you imagine Miller Park being used for this? Seamheads has the story of Milwaukee's Athletic Park being renovated in 1892 to become the home of "The Last Days of Pompeii." Interesting stuff.

Happy birthday today to Brian Banks, who turns 39, and Mike DeJean, who also turns 39.

Oh, and today's Mug probably would have come out ten minutes earlier if Rob Neyer hadn't introduced me to Worldometers.

Drink up.

A's Attempt To Sweep Angels Is A Fundamental Failure

Nico — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:31:08 -0000

For all the hoopla over hits and diving catches, baseball often comes down to the details in between. In the bottom of the 1st, Mark Ellis had a Bobby Abreu ground ball glance off his glove into short CF. Both he and Pennington went to 2B to cover, while Rajai Davis just stood there like he thought he was Jack Cust getting a 2-strike fastball down the middle. 3 players, all of whom could easily have gone after the ball and held Abreu at 1B, none did. This became even more important when Torii Hunter hit a crisp DP ball to Pennington, but with Abreu at 2B, not at 1B. Singles by Vlad Guerrero and Kendry Morales would give the Angels a 2-0 lead.

In the top of the 3rd, a single by Eric Patterson and a double by Cliff Pennington put runners at 2nd and 3rd with nobody out. Rajai Davis hit a bouncer to 3B. If both Patterson and Pennington both hold, it's 2nd & 3rd with one out, and Daric Barton's subsequent grounder to 1B scores a run. If they both go, then Figgins has to concede Pennington going to 3B in order to cut down Patterson at the plate -- or he can tag Pennington out and allow a run to score. But the A's played it all wrong: Patterson came to the plate, cut down pretty easily, while Pennington held at 2nd. Suddenly, the A's didn't even have a runner at 3B with less two out, nor a run on the board, and they would come up empty in the inning.

Even in the 7th, when the A's, now trailing 5-0, put the first 5 men on base to chase Joe Saunders, with 3 runs in Oakland had 1st & 3rd with nobody out but for the second time in the game, could not get that runner at 3rd home. That's partly because Eric Patterson thought he'd try to bunt on Darren Oliver, but he popped the bunt up to Figgins. After 5 hitters in a row have reached base, you can't hand the other team an out by popping a bunt up. Especially not when you're Eric Patterson, and don't exactly have your defensive skills, your terrific eye, or your HR power to fall back on. Rajai Davis bounced into a DP to end that frame, and would later bounce out to end the game -- and end his hitting streak at 14 games.

Hey, down 5-0 in the 7th, the A's battled again and got as close as 5-4 and that's good. But just with some fundamental play -- the ability to, you know, go get a ball that's rolling nearby, the ability to get runners home from 3rd with nobody out -- we might be celebrating a series sweep right about now. Instead, it's onto Seattle for the A's last off-day tomorrow...and then Felix Hernandez on Tuesday night.

Angels Hold On, Beat Oakland: Magic Number Now Two

rghan — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:23:41 -0000

Joe Saunders likely nailed down the fourth spot in the Halos' playoff rotation, going six solid innings. Four singles - only one hit with authority - and a walk chased him in the seventh, but all in all, it was a decent outing for the Colonel.

Kendry Morales hit the 100 RBI milestone with an RBI single in the first inning, and then tacked on 2 more with a monster blast in the third. He also started a crucial double play with a man in scoring position, helping to bail Saunders out of what could have been a nasty third inning.

Mike Napoli and Maicer Izturis made significant contributions with both the glove and the bat. On a close play at home in the third, Big Mike blocked the plate perfectly to deny an early run to the A's. He added a homerun to lead off the Halos' half of the fourth. Izturis initiated the Halos' second crucial double play of the afternoon, feeding the ball to Aybar quickly enough to get speedster Rajai Davis at first. In the ninth, he mashed a 2-run insurance double that felt like the difference-maker.

The bullpen recorded two holds and a save, with Oliver, Jepsen and Fuentes making things interesting enough to keep fans in their seats and in front of their televisions, while still making Saunder's fine start hold up.

To round out a perfect Sunday afternoon, Joe Maddon's Rays stunned the Texas Rangers with a ninth inning comeback, reducing the Halos' magic number to two. The Rangers come to town tomorrow, so the Halos could be celebrating at home as early as next evening.

Poll

And the panther is...

Joe Saunders - You can't really hold his 7th inning bad luck against him, can you?

70 votes

Kendry Morales - Bam Bam goes yard, notches 3 RBI's, starts a crucial DP

320 votes

Kevin Jepsen - He found the strikezone

10 votes

Maicer Izturis - RISP God

33 votes

433 votes | Poll has closed