SB Nation - Ryan Doumit

Mets closing in on Henry Blanco

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 18:34:19 -0000

The Mets are reportedly closing in on a deal with free agent catcher Henry Blanco. The Venezuelan national paper, El Nacional, reported that Blanco left Venezuela Sunday for New York to take a physical.

Reports coming from Central and South America sometimes get lost in translation by the time they are reported here, but Blanco is one of Venezuela's most popular players, so this report may hold true.

Blanco is expected to be the teams primary back up catcher, so the team is sill looking for a No.1 starter. Adding Blanco makes me think they may go younger, considering that Blanco is regarded as a great mentor who works well with his pitchers.

Ryan Doumit and Miguel Montero could be options via trades.

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:12 -0000

I've been waiting for the MLB.com beat writers to start writing their normal offseason Inbox articles, and today a bunch of them responded. The Mets beat writer Marty Noble and and the Marlin's Joe Frisaro were the only ones writing the Inbox articles until today.

Here are a few snippets regarding some of the top prospects:

Mark Bowman, Braves:

Can the Braves move Chipper Jones to first base and maybe look for a third baseman?
-- Edward G., Santiago, Dominican Republic

Chipper has said numerous times that he'd accept a move to the other corner if the Braves had a better third-base option. While they don't currently have a better option in their system, they could be tempted to make this move if they were to grab Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre or Pedro Feliz off the free-agent market.

But with the strong possibility that Freddie Freeman could be ready to assume his role as the everyday first baseman by the start of the 2011 season, where would you then play Chipper during the final two years of his contract?

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers:

It sounds like the Dodgers already have no chance at trading for Roy Halladay. If their farm system is so good, why can't they swing deals for big-name players the way the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox do?
-- Seth F., Vero Beach, Fla.

Actually, they made one of the biggest trades for a big-name player in recent years in 2008 -- for Manny Ramirez. In the case of Halladay, if the Blue Jays insist on a Major League starting pitcher in return -- and why wouldn't they? -- then the Dodgers are not a fit. That's the Dodgers' need, not a surplus. General manager Ned Colletti has said he doesn't believe he can improve his starting rotation by trading away a pitcher out of that starting rotation. One thing you haven't heard in recent years is that the Dodgers have blocked young talent, because their young talent has become the nucleus of the team. So there isn't a surplus of Major League-ready players to trade for marquee players. And one who would qualify in that category, Blake DeWitt, is likely to get a shot to be the starting second baseman next year.

More after the jump:

Marty Noble, Mets:

Daniel Murphy is not the answer at first base. The club should re-sign Carlos Delgado for one year, allowing him to demonstrate whether he has anything left. I believe he is an all around better player than Murphy, who seems like he cares, but I'm convinced he at best is a bench player. They should wait for Ike Davis to develop.
-- John A., Whitestone, N.Y.

I'm not sure about Delgado. The Mets have questions about his ability to move at first base. Off what I saw in 2007 and the first half of 2008, I have questions about his willingness to move. His bat seemed potent in the games he played before his hip surgery developed in May.

I suspect you and the club aren't on the same page about Murphy. And I don't see how Murphy and Delgado fit in the same roster, particularly if a right-handed-hitting first baseman is needed. But you and the club seem to agree on Davis. And I have the same sense. Give him time to develop.

Carrie Muskat, Cubs:

Have you heard if Ryan Theriot has been working on his footwork at second base? I believe Jeff Baker has more value off the bench with Aramis Ramirez having his shoulder issues and such.
-- Aaron L., Chicago

Theriot has been told to dust off his second baseman's glove because he could be switching to second base if the Cubs decide top prospect Starlin Castro is ready for the big leagues. Theriot has played second before in the Major Leagues, last doing so in 2007 (37 games). I agree about Baker being a valuable player to have on the bench.

Adam McCalvy, Brewers:

How does the addition of Carlos Gomez affect Lorenzo Cain's future with the organization?
-- Michael Holyoke, Thiensville, Wis.

It slows Cain's progress to the Majors, though injuries in 2009 probably took care of that already. Cain missed time with a left knee injury and then struggled to trust the knee when he returned, according to Nichols. Cain will begin the year at Double-A Huntsville or perhaps Triple-A Nashville while Gomez gets a chance to dig a foothold in Milwaukee. Remember, Gomez is raw himself (at least offensively) so there remains plenty of opportunity for guys like Cain or Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Why can't we look at moving Ryan Doumit back to right field to fill our offensive needs rather than trade him? -- Bob, Fombell, Pa.

That would seem to be a viable possibility, but not one the Pirates have shown interest in really exploring further for whatever reason. When I asked Huntington about the possibility of Doumit playing right field, he said the organization sees it as a possibility right now only on days when Doumit is off behind the plate. As a result, don't be surprised if you do see Doumit make a handful of spot starts in right when he isn't catching, in order to keep his bat in the lineup. You'll remember Doumit did just that one time last September.

Keep in mind, too, that the Pirates' right fielder is likely to soon be Jose Tabata. So, if the Pirates do pursue a corner outfielder this winter, it would likely be for a short-term fit. It might not be the best option to move Doumit to right knowing that he wouldn't be able to stay there but for a few months.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Where does Milledge fit into next year's lineup? I think he played a pretty strong second half this past year, and showed some improvements in his game. Is he an outfielder of the future, along with Andrew McCutchen?
-- Jake C., Kent, Ohio

If the Pirates' starting lineup is made up of players currently within the organization (meaning no additional offseason adds), I could very well see Milledge slotting into the fifth spot in the batting order, behind Doumit. Milledge finished the season by hitting .311 in his final 44 games, and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain offensive numbers like that for a longer period of time. Also, both Milledge and the Pirates' staff expect him to show more power in 2010 now that his right hand has returned to full strength after an early-season injury.

I do think you can mention Milledge as one of the club's potential outfielders of the future. He was not brought in as a placeholder. In fact, at this time next year, I'd expect we'll be talking about a pretty intriguing outfield trio of Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata.

Bucs Make Flurry of Roster Moves

Charlie — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:39:04 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Chris Jakubauskas throws against the Angels in the third inning of a game Wednesday, May 20, 2009, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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The Pirates have cut Robinzon Diaz, Justin Thomas and Jeff Karstens from the 40-man roster, added Brad Lincoln, Gorkys Hernandez, Bryan Morris and Ramon Aguero, and claimed reliever Chris Jakubauskas from the Mariners.

Thomas and Karstens aren't huge surprises--Thomas was claimed from the M's only a couple weeks ago, and Karstens was arbitration-eligible--but I'm a surprised by Diaz being cut. He was a perfectly functional backup catcher for chunks of last year, and functional backup catchers are valuable. If one looks at the entirety of his performance record, though, it's not that impressive--he actually hit worse at AAA last year than he did in the majors. So I suppose there's a case to be made that he wouldn't continue to be productive with the Pirates if he stuck with them. If Diaz is lost and Ryan Doumit is traded, the Bucs will have to hunt around for another catcher. This could be a sign that the Pirates are taking Jeff Clement seriously as a catcher, although it also might have nothing to do with that at all.

Jakubauskas doesn't have much of a performance record and he's already 30, but he has a great curveball and he held his own in the American League last year, albeit with a really low strikeout rate, and the sort of flyball tendency that plays better in Safeco than anywhere else but San Diego.

Thursday Bullet Points

Jeff — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 06:11:44 -0000

The hot rumor of the day is that the M's and Tigers have been talking about a three-team deal involving Brandon Morrow and Edwin Jackson. I'm only bringing this one up because the M's have been linked to Jackson before, so I can believe in their possible interest. That said:

(1) Jackson isn't very good. Don't believe the ERA. He took a step forward, to be sure, as he's cut his walks in three straight years, but he's still a flyball guy with come-and-go command and stuff that doesn't get as many strikeouts as you'd expect, and when you put it all together, he's (maybe) a #3 with upside. Ignore anyone that focuses on his first half while ignoring his second. That isn't how these things work. Nor is it reasonable to focus on Jackson's 2009 while ignoring his prior track record. Pitchers develop differently than hitters, to be sure, but they're still prone to regression from presumed breakthroughs, as we saw from guys like Edinson Volquez, Ervin Santana, and John Danks. So just because Jackson improved in 2009 doesn't mean he's necessarily going to sustain or continue that improvement going forward. You have to play the odds. Plus the guy he was in 2009 wasn't terrific in the first place.

(2) We have no idea if, in this scenario, Jackson would be coming to us anyway.

I don't know if this rumor has legs. As is the case with every rumor that comes up around this time of year, my conclusion is that, yeah, it could happen, but it probably won't.

You know what's really unfunny? Any joke about the post-game spread. For some reason, people love to make these jokes. They make them all the time. And they're always terrible. Knock it off.

Free agency is upon us, and as such, all 30 teams are free to negotiate with Russell Branyan. If you're someone that really wants him back, I wouldn't be concerned. If you're someone that really doesn't want him back, I wouldn't get excited. Branyan is one of Z's guys, and though nothing in the offseason is guaranteed, I would be really, really surprised if Branyan weren't back as next year's 1B/DH. Branyan's going to look at the market, but once he realizes that no one's offering huge money for an aging slugger with a bad back, I'd expect him and Z to agree to terms. If I made 100 different roster predictions for the 2010 Mariners, something like 97 of them would involve Russell Branyan.

Dave wrote about the Ryan Doumit possibility last night. A lot of people are trying to link the M's to John Lackey. You shouldn't listen to them. You should probably listen to Dave. If I tried to rank rumors on a five-point scale from really likely (1) to really unlikely (5), Doumit would probably rank a 2. The Jackson stuff would be a 3 or a 4.

Ryan Doumit an option in Toronto?

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:42:08 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

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The Pirates reportedly are very willing to move catcher Ryan Doumit, FOXSports.com is reporting. Doumit had a breakout year in 2009 hitting .318 with 15 home runs, but battled injuries in 2009 to hit only .250 in 75 games.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ryan Doumit	75	280	31	70	16	0	10	38	20	49	4	0	.250	.299	.414

Doumit will make 3.5 million dollars in 2010 and 5.1 million in 2011, pretty reasonable if he can return to 2008 form.

The Blue Jays could re-sign Rod Barajas as a one year stop gap for catching prospect J.P. Arenciba; however, Arenciba hit .236 with 21 home runs and struck out 114 times to just 26 walks, and needs more seasoning before being expected to play everyday in Toronto. Realistically, he won't be ready to take over until the middle of 2011 or the start of 2012.

Bringing in Doumit to play catcher would be a good stop gap and could provide the Blue Jays with a big bat at a relatively cheap cost. And if Arenciba proves to be ready sooner than expected, then Doumit could be moved to first base or the outfield.

What would it cost the Blue Jays for Doumit? Doumit has only had one season in which he played over 100 games, so the Pirates can't demand too much in return.

The Pirates' bullpen is pretty weak, even if you include injured pitchers Evan Meek and Jose Ascanio in the bullpen. The Blue Jays' bullpen is relatively young and deep, meaning moving one of them in a trade likely wouldn't hurt in the long run.

If the Jays offered Jesse Carlson, they might be able to land the catcher.

At least it's a start.

Sunday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: Mauer, Hardy, Uniforms, Vikings

Jesse — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:52:41 -0000

Top o' the mornin' to ya...

Here's a Q&A with Joe Mauer over at the Strib online. There are some good quotes, all about his game and his rewards and no contract talk, but if you've read the Twins coverage at the Star Tribune at all this week then you've probably already seen most of this.
The boys over at FOX Sports say that the Brewers only went with the Twins after the Pirates tried to pull in J.J. Hardy with Matt Capps or Ryan Doumit. Apparently Milwaukee was looking for either Paul Maholm or Zack Duke.
This has already been talked about here, and there's been a lot of good discussion--the Twins will unveil new-look road uni's (along with "subtle" changes to the home threads) on Monday afternoon.
Be sure to check out Han Joelo's gem.
After a week to get healthy the Vikings are back in action this afternoon. It looks like Antoine Winfield will take another week, but hopefully the Lions won't give the Vikings too much trouble and they won't miss him for one more game. Be sure to head over to Daily Norseman for all your Vikings needs.

Ryan Doumit and the Prospect of "Selling Low"

Tommy Bennett — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 21:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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The hot stove is in full effect, and teams are taking a hard look at their rosters to prepare for the winter meetings. One team that has already been busy is the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they previously acquired Akinori Iwamura from Tampa Bay.

Last year, one of the Pirates' most expensive players was catcher Ryan Doumit. After a .318/.357/.501 in 2008, good for a .367 wOBA, Doumit struggled with injuries in '09. He hit .250/.299/.414 and recorded a (below average for a catcher) .306 wOBA.

Prior to the 2009 season, Doumit signed a three-year, $11.5 million extension that will earn him $3.55M in 2010 and $5.1M in 2011. The deal also includes team options for 2012 ($7.25M) and 2013 ($8.25M). The speculation engines are revving up, and the suggestion is that Neal Huntington and the Pirates may deal Doumit and play Jeff Clement every day behind the plate. Additionally, it has been reported that the Brewers and Pirates discussed a swap of Doumit and J.J. Hardy.

However, some commentators have suggested Pirates would be selling low if they traded Doumit now. Here's Jorge Says No!:

Here is a guy, who is just a year removed from hitting .318 with 15 HR and 71 RBI. Doumit was one of the best hitting catchers in the NL in 2008, but he missed a large chunk of the 2009 seasons because of injuries. Doumit seems to be one of the few young catchers out there with a nice upside at the dish and he certainly did not have one of his better seasons in 2009.

So would it be a mistake for the Pirates to trade Doumit now?

I don't think so. There can be no doubt that Doumit is a risky play going forward. If the Pirates choose to keep that risk, they will keep both tails of the distribution--the world where Doumit returns to form as well as the one where he continues to scuffle. If they trade Doumit to another team, his value will necessarily be discounted by the amount of risk that comes with him.

Recently, there has been a mom's-basement size controversy over a column written by J.C. Bradbury entitled "Hot Stove Myths." He writes:

GMs can buy low and sell high -- [...] You can't sell high or buy low and profit financially because all GMs understand these things. You don't have to wait for a guy to get hot to sell him, nor dump him before he gets cold. In addition, the key knowledge of when the peak or trough is doesn't exist, except in the mind of message board posters. Fluctuations in performance create uncertainty, which affect the price that GMs are willing to pay.

It is certainly true that GMs tend to realize when a player is risky, like Doumit is, and discount his value accordingly.

But it also seems at least possible that in the short term, GMs make mistakes even in their initial valuations. If that is true, then it should absolutely be possible to find a player who is undervalued by his own team (and perhaps all other teams in the market for players with similar skill sets). If that is true, then at least some of the time, it will be possible to acquire a player for less than this true expected value.

This is especially true because of the information asymmetry created by injuries. Take Doumit. He has been a Pirate his entire career. Clearly, the team with the best knowledge of his medical circumstances is the Pirates.

Doumit's injury, which was to the scaphoid bone in his right wrist, is the sort that can frequently cause players to lose power and bat control. However, it is not an insurmountable problem, as players like Adrian Gonzalez (torn tendon) have recovered from serious wrist injuries to regain their power stroke and then some.

Any team seeking to acquire him will of course do their due diligence and ask Doumit to undergo a physical. However, a single examination is unlikely to balance the difference in information between the two teams. As a result, teams looking to acquire Doumit may be unwilling to bid as much for Doumit's services than they would if they knew everything about his health.

How might a savvy GM respond? For one, he could provide the other team with all possible information about the player's health in the form of expert reports and medical records. If the offer were credible and accepted, it would eliminate the information asymmetry and probably raise the offer.

Given Doumit's contract, the dearth of free agent catchers, and the Pirates' prospects of contending in the near future, it is likely that Doumit has more value to another team than he does to the Pirates. Whether a trade can be worked out to the mutual benefit of the Pirates and a trading partner remains to be seen.

However, it is not necessarily true that the Pirates would be selling low on Doumit. Rather, a good deal would represent realizing a fixed return on a risky asset.

FOX Sports: Pirates, Brewers Discussed Ryan Doumit, J.J. Hardy

Charlie — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:09:25 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

4 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit, back, turns to apply a late tag as Colorado Rockies' Clint Barmes scores on double by Seth Smith in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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First things first: treat this with a grain of salt for now. The fact that the Post-Gazette reported that the Bucs offered Matt Capps for J.J. Hardy but didn't mention that the Pirates and Brewers also discussed a Ryan Doumit-for-Hardy swap makes this report from FOXSports.com seem a bit strange to me. Nonetheless, it's interesting:

It's becoming very clear that Ryan Doumit is available on the trade market.

The Pirates were engaged in talks with the Brewers earlier this offseason about a trade that would have sent Doumit to Milwaukee for shortstop J.J. Hardy, major league sources said Friday.

But Milwaukee preferred to use Hardy as the trade chip to acquire a starting center fielder, Carlos Gomez, from the Twins.

Hardy and Doumit have comparable contracts, which would have aided a deal.

The Brewers have a couple of decent catching prospects in Jon Lucroy and Angel Salome who are both fairly near the majors, but their current starter is Jason Kendall, who has nothing left offensively. Dealing for Doumit might have made some sense for them.

I'd certainly be open to trading Doumit if I were in charge, but it wouldn't be my top priority. Doumit had a dismal season overall in 2009 but hit very well in September after seemingly recovering from the wrist injury that probably dragged down his numbers before that. Dealing Doumit for Hardy would have been fine, but it would have been a lateral move--both are very talented players coming off poor seasons. Hardy might be the more talented of the two, and he's certainly the more likely of the two to stay healthy, but that's a double-edged sword--Hardy doesn't have an injury to explain why he hit so badly last year.

If the Pirates had traded Doumit for Hardy, they would have essentially been trading out Ronny Cedeno (who would move to the bench if Hardy became a Pirate) for Jason Jaramillo. Again, I think that's a lateral move--Cedeno and Jaramillo are both credible second-division starters and nothing more, and neither have a ton of upside. Actually, if I had to pick which of the two had the best chance to break out, I'd probably pick Cedeno, because of the power he flashed at times last year and because he, unlike Jaramillo, has a few lines on his stat sheet that suggest he can be somewhat better than a glove-first player. (There's also Jeff Clement, who's still trying to stick around as a catcher, but the idea that he can catch will be hard to take seriously until he actually does it for a month or so; given his knee problems, I think it's much more likely he sees time at the corners. If Doumit is traded and Clement can catch, great, but I frankly doubt that will happen.)

The Doumit-Hardy rumors are interesting, though, and they may be a blueprint for the sorts of Doumit rumors we hear the rest of the offseason. Doumit's 2009 season was bad enough that the Pirates probably aren't going to get much value for him if they pursue a standard veteran-for-prospects deal, but they could acquire a similarly talented but problematic player who isn't a catcher, so that Jaramillo can get some more playing time. An outfielder might be a possibility.

I think the more likely scenario, though, is for the Pirates to wait until after the season starts and hope Doumit shows he's healthy and productive, then deal him for younger players. That's essentially what they did with Jason Bay--there were rumors about Bay throughout the 2007-2008 offseason, but Bay had just had a terrible year, so the Pirates waited and dealt him after he hit well for a few months in 2008.

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Ryan Ludwick

39 votes

Geovany Soto

61 votes

Chad Billingsley

116 votes

Ryan Doumit

17 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

Community Projection Review: Ryan Doumit

Charlie — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 04:37:13 -0000

More photos » by John Heller - AP

8 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit fields a ground ball to force out Atlanta Braves' Brian McCann in the second inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Friday, April 17, 2009. (AP Photo/John Heller)

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For those who are new here, we play a game each winter wherein we come up with a "community projection" for each starting player's performance for the upcoming year. Then we look back after the season is over. First up this offseason is Ryan Doumit.

Community: .289/.346/.477

ZiPS: .287/.343/.463

Actual: .250/.299/.414

Bonus: We guessed that Doumit would play in 115 games; actually he played 75 after missing almost three months with a wrist injury.

Most of the projections were pretty similar, and none were terribly close, but Bucdaddy came the closest, betting that Doumit would hit .271/.303/.433.

As bad as Doumit's season felt, the difference between what he did in 2008 and what he did this year mostly just stems from his batting average being 68 points lower, which mostly just shows what a fickle little finger batting average can be. He still hit for good power, and he pounded the ball in September and October, batting .329/.406/.459 over that period. Which will probably be enough to heighten our optimism until next season--or, at least, until he hits the DL in the second week of April.

Doumit may not ever be healthy for any sustained period of time, but he's still an asset as a catcher. As a first baseman or a corner outfielder, not so much. And until Tony Sanchez is ready, if that ends up happening, the Bucs don't have anyone worth moving Doumit around for anyway.

Stlil, this season showed that Jason Jaramillo is a credible second-division starting catcher, and that Robinzon Diaz is a perfectly decent backup. (Jaramillo's defense makes up for his somewhat lackluster hitting.) Also, this didn't get much publicity, but Erik Kratz, who handled a lot of the catching for Indianapolis, showed a decent arm and solid power in his best minor league season yet; he's a marginal player, to be sure, but it actually wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if Kratz, who is already signed to a minor-league deal for 2010, were pressed into big-league backup duty.

So the Bucs have a bunch of vaguely interesting options, and I'd look for them to deal a catcher in the next year or so. Doumit, who's older, less reliable, and more valuable on the trade market than Jaramillo or Diaz, is a likely choice if he gets off to a hot start next year.

Doumit had a mediocre year, and Jaramillo didn't hit after Doumit bumped him back to reserve duty. But the Bucs' catching defense was better overall than it has been in years (certainly it was much better than it was in any year Ronny Paulino was in Pittsburgh) and the Pirates could probably weather a Doumit deal without much of a problem by giving Jaramillo the first crack at the job and turning to Diaz if that doesn't work out. Depth is a nice thing to have.